Weekend Open Thread for October 27-29, 2017

Welcome to the weekend – be sure to check back tomorrow at noon for our latest Senate rankings!

But first, there is a general election this weekend in Iceland. Iceland is a nation of 330K in the North Atlantic, roughly the size of Kentucky in area. It is a wealthy nation with cultural ties to Europe, especially Scandinavia. It has a political spectrum ranging from hardcore leftists to pro-business centrists, with the latter historically dominant. Iceland’s 63-member Althing (the best parliament name in the world IMO) is elected by proportional representation in 6 multi-member constituencies, with parties that cross 5% getting bonus seats to make the end result fully proportional. The current government was an unstable 3-party coalition that collapsed amid a personal scandal involving the PM’s father (though that is mostly thought to be a convenient cover story for deeper ideology and personality tension between the coalition members). Iceland has seven major parties in the current parliament, with an as many as eight set to enter this year. The largest party in the outgoing parliament is Independence, a mainstream center-right party very similar to the British Tories in its fiscal conservatism, mild nationalism, and social moderation. Independence habitually pulls around a quarter to a third of the vote, and is in a tie for the largest party again this time. Independence may be usurped as the largest party this year by the Left-Green movement, which as you might guess is a fairly typical far-left eco-communist group. The Left-Greens surged dramatically this year and seem likely to take a quarter of the vote. The other large party of the left is the Pirates, one of two (with the Czech Republic) truly successful members of a global family of hipsterish left-libertarian parties that sprung up around 2010 focusing on civil liberties. The Pirates seem likely to retain their position as the third largest party, polling in the low double-digits. The traditional party of the left and the most mainstream center-left group, the Social Democrats, were decimated by the Left-Greens and Pirates in the last election last year, but seem likely to rebound somewhat to around 10%. Also polling in the 10% range is the junior coalition partner, the agrarian-centrist Progressives, who tend to be an amorphous rent-seeking party for rural interests. The Progressives have been hurt by a leadership dispute that has birthed a new, similar party in the Centre party. As you might guess, it seems to be shaping up as an amorphous centrist party, but has been successful, taking around 10% in polling. There are also three parties that may or may not enter parliament. A new party, the People’s Party, was polling above the threshhold but has fallen into 5%, on-the-bubble territory; they are a nationalist-populist group, though their exact ideology is still ill-defined. The final two parties are both European Economist-style liberal groups, Bright Future and Reform. The main difference between the two is that Bright Future was part of the government (its exit is what brought the election) while Reform was not. Both did well last year but have struggled since. Bright Future in particular is almost certain to be boxed out, and Reform has a chance (but not a great one) to hit the 5% needed to enter parliament. Overall, CW seems to be betting on a left-wing coalition taking power, probably a Left-Green/Pirate/Social Democrat group, though an Independence/Progressive/Centre coalition continuing may be possible as well.

Now this week’s question:

In 2 sentences or less, how would you define yourself ideologically?

And because it’s the weekend, we give an ad from the Democrat with the most cash on hand in VA-10 HERE!

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117 Comments

  • shamlet October 27, 2017 at 5:43 pm

    To answer my own question –

    I would define my ideology as proceduralist, libertarian, and pragmatic in that order. Basically I believe government should give people the tools and framework to solve their own problems… that means making sure that the framework is sound (hence my emphasis on good procedures over good policy outcomes) letting people figure it out for themselves for the most part, and making sure government does a good job and has popular support when it does step in.

    I think one of the biggest unacknowledged genius aspects of the Constitution is how much it hews to that line of laying out procedures for people to solve their own problems rather than making specific policy. It’s kinda the teach a man to fish analogy on a grander scale – good processes are much more enduring than good outcomes.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Republican Michigander October 27, 2017 at 6:05 pm

    If I have to limit to two sentences. I’m a pro-life, pro-2a, less government decentralist when it comes to domestic policy in that government should not be concentrated on the federal level, nor at the executive branch. On foreign policy, I have a mix of economic (not ethnic) nationalism and foreign policy realism who thinks the US needs to stop nationbuilding and fighting every bad dictator, and worry about the mess in our own country.

    Yes, that’s a run on sentence. I know.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • RogueBeaver October 27, 2017 at 6:27 pm

    AZ-SEN: Salmon strongly considering, will decide next week. Hope he runs. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/924036757116653568

    IL-AG: Quinn’s back. https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/ex-illinois-governor-pat-quinn-run-attorney-general/


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Izengabe October 27, 2017 at 11:06 pm

      And with Quinn’s entry into the race we can finally see a viable path to victory for Erika Harold.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • davybaby October 28, 2017 at 10:56 am

      I still think it’s amazing that Quinn was elected despite losing 98 of the 102 counties in Illinois:

      https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=17&f=1&off=5&elect=0

      (Colors reversed on map.)

      • Greyhound October 28, 2017 at 2:20 pm

        That’s what happens when one county casts 40% of the votes statewide, and you win it by 36 points. Brady had to win the combined rest of the state by about 24 points to actually beat Quinn, and he wasn’t getting anywhere close to that margin in the collar counties that cast another ~30% of the vote in the state.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • davybaby October 28, 2017 at 11:01 am

      I worked at the same company with Salmon in the mid-80s. I was based in Denver and he was in Phoenix. We talked on the phone a few times a week and saw each other a couple times a year. There was nothing I saw then that suggested he was a future congressman, let alone a senator, but I guess there was a side to him I didn’t know.

  • Red Oaks October 27, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    My ideology can be tough to define concisely so at the risk of oversimplification I’ll say I admire Switzerland on federal structure, Australia on immigration policy, Canada on old age insurance, Singapore on health care, Sweden on school choice (though I am extremely pro-homeschooling), France on racial laws, Hong Kong on taxes and regulation, the UK on the EU, Texas on zoning, and Clay Travis on the first amendment and boobs.


    MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • jncca October 27, 2017 at 8:15 pm

    Asm. Raul Bocanegra (D-Los Angeles), best known prior to this for losing to a rando in 2014 as an incumbent, has a sexual harassment allegation by another legislator’s chief of staff.

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-raul-bocanegra-harassment-20171027-htmlstory.html


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • jncca October 27, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    1. I would define myself as fundamentally a pessimist who believes society needs rules and needs to follow them to be successful.

    I think civilization is both fragile and an impressive achievement. I think there are many ways we could ruin our civilization, and I am on guard against all of them.

    The big 4 concerns to me are:

    1) War: I am very dovish and I think very few things are worth going to war over because war is unimaginably horrible.

    2) Environmental Damage: Ruining the planet will ruin civilization.

    3) Inequality: Revolutions ruin the planet, plus equal opportunity is just the right thing.

    4) Breakdown in Rule + Trust of Law: I support the aims of Black Lives Matter and I support deporting at least 90% of all the illegal immigrants in the country, debatably 100% but I’m okay with Dreamers staying.. This is perfectly compatible. I want people to follow the law, but I also want people to trust those making and enforcing laws. The First Amendment is also an important part of this equation.

    There are plenty of other things I support (regular Dem positions on most social programs, opposition to free trade with any country that is not similar to the US, support for a 100% estate tax over certain incomes, etc) but those are on the whole less important to me than these four major issues.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Conservative First October 27, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    Detroit Mayor:
    Duggan Up Big; Winfrey May Be In Trouble
    “Detroit Mayor Mike DUGGAN is up big on Sen. Coleman YOUNG II 63 to 28 percent in the 12 days before the Nov. 7 city election and Wednesday’s debate didn’t change the margin by much, according to a Target Insyght poll of 400 Detroit residents Oct. 25 and 26 shared with MIRS and the Detroit News.”
    https://mirsnews.com/welcome.php
    http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2017/10/27/mike-duggan-coleman-young-detroit/807635001/

    • Republican Michigander October 28, 2017 at 11:54 am

      I can’t stand Duggan, but I hope Winfrey gets the boot.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • Red Oaks October 28, 2017 at 1:09 pm

        I grew up in Wayne County and voted there during my first 3 even year election cycles. It is really difficult to know who to root for there because county government is always dominated by overpaid, corrupt, machine hacks. My grandmother, who was a lifelong Democratic voter for Federal and State elections, hated much of the County government, especially longtime Treasurer Raymond Wojtowicz, whom she knew from high school. She loved to tell me the story about how Wojtowicz was treasurer of their high school class and overspent the budget, which forced him to spend prom night carrying around a hat asking other seniors for donations.


        MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • GOPTarHeel October 27, 2017 at 8:59 pm

    So…will it be Flynn or Manafort?


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 27, 2017 at 10:19 pm

      I suspect Manafort will be indicted because the FBI raided his house looking for evidence this summer. Most likely charge is that he acted as a paid agent of the Ukrainian Government without properly disclosing it, but there could be other stuff.

    • davybaby October 28, 2017 at 10:52 am

      Both are in trouble, but not necessarily for the same thing. In this round, I’d say Manafort, but it won’t be long for Flynn.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 28, 2017 at 1:09 pm

        Yeah Flynn took money from foreign governments without properly disclosing his activities, and it is even more of a problem in his case because he served as a National Security Adviser. So it is possible it could be him but right now I think Manafort is more likely the target.

  • The Zenome Project October 27, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    My ideology is a combination of libertarianism on domestic policy, hawkishness on illegal immigration, a favoring of the right to life over the right to liberty on the abortion question, skepticism of judicial review, skepticism of the intelligence state, in favor of the abolition of the PATRIOT Act, skepticism of all sanctions (including to Russia and Iran), non-interventionism regarding foreign policy, and fully believing in complete Swiss-style neutrality/limiting foreign entanglement and ending the foreign aid gravy train to all countries, but especially the Middle East and Israel. In other words, I’m a right-leaning libertarian on the four-corner scale, and probably well to the right of the people on this message board if on the line scale.

  • segmentation_fault October 27, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    I believe capitalism is the best way to generate wealth and prosperity. However there should be regulations on enterprise to protect/promote public safety and health (that includes environment). There should also be trust-busting and union-busting to prevent the monopolization of capital and labor.

    Taxes should be lowered on investment and saving. Abolish the welfare state and implement universal basic income (Social Security for all?).

    The government should not provide equality of outcome but should ensure equality of opportunity. This means combatting systematic racism and discrimination.

    Election laws/government reform: strict campaign finance, anti-corruption laws, short campaign seasons, presidential popular vote, four year terms for House of Representatives.

    In my opinion, the gun culture in America has gone way too far. It is a public safety issue. I would have mass confiscations. Although I would allow guns to be used for hunting and sport in designated areas.

    Nature conservation. Lots of parks. Not a lot of extraction.

    Idea I like but am not sure about – mandatory national service like military or diplomatic corps?

    Foreign policy – interventionist. But America should not go at it alone and should not always lead. Countries that demonstrate support for human rights should act together – and strongly. Yes, that means I agree with Trump that Europe should pay up to NATO. But he is still a clown who should have no role in foreign policy. Need more of a focus on diplomacy.

    Immigration: be like Canada.

    Yes, I recognize many of these ideas (especially re: guns) are way too controversial to be implemented in the U.S. any time soon. But they are my views.

  • Son_of_the_South October 27, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    I’m seeing a lot of ideological descriptions over two sentences long. Please keep any descriptions to the limit that shamlet requested. Any new ones longer than two sentences will be deleted. This is not a policy thread.


    24, R, TN-09
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Midnight901 October 27, 2017 at 10:30 pm

    I’m paleoconservative or paleocon-adjacent. A republic, not an empire.

  • californianintexas October 27, 2017 at 11:25 pm

    To me, too much government involvement, such as farm subsidies, housing, health care, and foreign aid, almost never results in better outcomes. Getting entangled in other countries’ affairs also doesn’t end well most of the time.


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • aggou October 27, 2017 at 11:30 pm

    1. Smaller government focused, but willing to hear the other side and make compromises if possible/when needed. I’m not so stuck in my beliefs to ever say (at least aside from social issues) that there is no better way.

  • Tekzilla October 28, 2017 at 12:56 am

    I’m a Scoop Jackson Democrat with some tinges of Mike Mansfield and Tom Periello.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • cer October 28, 2017 at 11:11 am

      If you are truly a “Scoop Jackson Democrat,” you are definitely a dying bread within your party.

      RIP!


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • HoneyBee October 28, 2017 at 1:48 am

    1) Mostly down the line Conservative both fiscally and socially, with a few Libertarian impulses (pro immigration, marijuana legalization, trade), with a special hatred for regulation, abortion, corporate taxes and activist judges. Also tax cuts are good, but they should be mostly for business and spending cuts are 10x as important; is another key tenet of my philosophy.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • LtNOWIS October 28, 2017 at 9:33 am

    1. Label-averse but some mix of neocon, neoliberal and Chamber of Commerce Republican. Ideology is less important than sociology in politics.


    28, VA-11

  • OGGoldy October 28, 2017 at 10:32 am

    Getting this down to two sentences is tough, but I’ll give it a go.

    I am a logical, pragmatic, semi-populist, center-left communitarian that has little to no faith in human beings or human nature in general. I believe anti-intellectualism is one of the worst possible aspects the glaringly flawed humans, as it leads to insularity, racism, denial of scientific facts and prevents actual advancement as a society or as a species.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA October 28, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      I would say my ideology matches your description pretty well except I am center-right instead of center-left. I would say it’s a mixture of the British concept of “peace, order, and good government” mixed with the Scandinavian concept of Lagom and Germanic values.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • OGGoldy October 28, 2017 at 1:42 pm

        I think the dividing line between center-left and center-right with those other qualifiers comes down to a pretty simple binary choice: Who do you distrust less strongly, silver-spoon-fed oligarchs or government bureaucrats? I am certainly not a huge fan of either (and I doubt you are either), but there is some sort of recourse (elections) if the bureaucrats get out of line. With the oligarchs, if the government is toothless, there is no recourse when inevitably they run roughshod over everyone and everything they choose. It’s a small, but important distinction in defining my political ideology.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 29, 2017 at 8:31 am

          I think we are probably closer on this topic than you would guess. I think we have a huge public sector talent issue because salaries for public sector professionals is quite low compared to many private sector counterparts. I would not be a public sector attorney because it would take me 14 years to reach my current salary. I am not independently wealthy so losing that income means my future children would not be able to go to college on my dime. Increasing public service is being dominated by egomaniacs, less competent people or the occasional true believer.

          I use the term center-right in a purely fiscal sense. Good government needs to be a government that has its finances in order and nobody is gaming the system.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Tekzilla October 29, 2017 at 12:56 am

      I think we are pretty close in our politics although I think we approach it slightly differently, thanks for wording it far better than I ever could.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • californianintexas October 28, 2017 at 10:34 am

    140 women signed an open letter denouncing sexual harassment and misogyny in CA state government. Raul Bocanegra is one of them.


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • californianintexas October 28, 2017 at 6:00 pm

      Oops, I missed jncca’s post on the same above.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • TheWizardOf144 October 28, 2017 at 10:45 am

    Self interest first. Nationalist second.

  • davybaby October 28, 2017 at 11:04 am

    I was struggling with how to distill my political views into two sentences, so let’s just say I am an Obama Democrat.

  • segmentation_fault October 28, 2017 at 2:21 pm

    Will Mueller hurt Ed Gillespie at all? I recall that in 2013 the national news on Obamacare in the week or so before the election seemed to help Cuccinelli.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 28, 2017 at 2:38 pm

      Depends on who is indicted but I think most likely the effect would be minute, particularly if it is Manafort. Also Gillespie has not disowned Trump but has not enthusiastically embraced him either. I also think the news stories this week about the connection between the Clinton campaign and Russian sources via Fusion GPS and the the Steele dossier will have a minute effect on the Gov race.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 28, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Add the name of Tonya Boone to the clown car of 7 undistinguished Dems running to challenge NY GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in the 21st CD. She has worked as an organizer for the SEIU and also is a co-owner of a slate quarry. She grew up in the CD but has been living in Va for awhile and only returned to the CD a few months ago. Why they are all so eager to challenge Stefanik, who beat her Dem opponent by 32 points in 2016, I don’t know. Maybe they expect a Dem wave in 2018.

    http://www.timesunion.com/7dayarchive/article/Washington-County-woman-joins-NY-21-race-against-12294290.php

    • district1 October 28, 2017 at 3:05 pm

      This district appears to be a breeding ground for flaky Democrats and Greens.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • Greyhound October 28, 2017 at 3:17 pm

        This is probably the seat with the most left-wing D electorate compared to the overall seat PVI in the entire country. Zephyr Teachout won a lot of the counties in this seat in her primary against Cuomo in 2014 by like 2:1 despite losing statewide by 30 points. Its mostly because a huge number of the center-left voters in Upstate New York are still registered Republicans.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • shamlet October 28, 2017 at 3:20 pm

          Your larger point is valid, but UT-2 is obviously the seat with the most left-wing D electorate relative to its PVI.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • Greyhound October 28, 2017 at 4:10 pm

            Right, I forgot about Boulder West.


            R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • davybaby October 28, 2017 at 4:00 pm

          In some ways NY-21 is Vermont West, albeit with a massive Army base at Fort Drum.

          • Manhatlibertarian October 28, 2017 at 4:43 pm

            Well yes and no. Although you have a number of SJW types in the Dem ranks in NY-21 like in Vermont, and the CD like Vermont is overwhelmingly white, the district is much more Republican than Vermont. Unlike Vermont, most state legislators in CD-21 are GOP and definitely unlike Vermont, CD 21 went for Trump. I also think Astorino carried the CD is 2014 against Cuomo. Maybe huge Fort Drum is a factor, but for whatever reason CD 21 did not take the sharp left turn that Vermont did after being a GOP stronghold for years.

        • segmentation_fault October 28, 2017 at 6:46 pm

          Don’t know. I think it’s very working class, receptive to people with an economically progressive message like Sanders and Techout, but not necessarily culturally liberal.

          The area from Watertown to Plattsburgh along the Canadian border, specifically. You could almost argue it’s in many ways like West Virginia.

          • Manhatlibertarian October 28, 2017 at 9:12 pm

            Well CD 21 is not an affluent area but many working class people are Repubs, partly for “cultural reasons” but also because the GOP is seen as the defender of upstate NY interests vs downstate NYC Dem politicians. The upper part of the CD, the area near the Canadian border you mention, has been more Dem leaning than the CD as a whole – mainly St. Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton Counties. But even there, Astorino took St. Lawrence Co. in 2014 and Trump took St. Lawrence and Franklin in 2016. Only the aptly named Clinton County stayed with Hillary.

            Besides the big military base, tourism is an important industry, and a big part of the huge Adirondack State Park is in the CD. Also interestingly, the big city closest to much of the CD is Montreal, Canada.

  • roguemapper October 28, 2017 at 3:09 pm

    In Last Voyage of the Ghost Ship by Gabriel García Márquez there’s a sentence of 2156 words. The elliptical, recursive, concatenated structure of the written language is a thing of wonder and beauty. There’s really no good reason why a two-sentence limit should prevent anyone from fully expressing themselves. 🙂


    Dem NC-11

    • Vosmyorka October 28, 2017 at 4:28 pm

      Obviously for poetic purposes a sentence can be made infinitely long, but if you’re trying to express your ideas clearly in a language like English, then sentence breaks serve a very useful function.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

    • Jon October 28, 2017 at 7:10 pm

      In retrospect, I think that in the future if we want a limit on how long things should be then it should be in the form of maximum number of words allowed rather than maximum number of sentences in order to avoid run on sentences … such as this one.


      45, M, MO-02

  • cer October 28, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    Another NY politician in a bit of trouble.

    https://twitter.com/ZeroPointNow/status/924202826716217344


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Manhatlibertarian October 28, 2017 at 4:19 pm

      She obviously suffers from Post Traumatic Trump Election Syndrome. Alas there is no cure!

    • californianintexas October 28, 2017 at 7:15 pm

      *Facepalm*


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • FiveAngels October 28, 2017 at 3:45 pm

    My political views are primarily based on a strong belief that culture and national identity are more important than economic and fiscal issues, which is why I reject all commercialist ideologies including libertarianism and movement conservatism. I’m also strongly anti-interventionist.

  • andyroo312 October 28, 2017 at 8:54 pm

    Rockefeller Republican


    MA-7

  • SlippingJimmy October 28, 2017 at 10:45 pm

    https://www.vpap.org/updates/2766-visualization-5-week-trend-governors-race-ad-buys/

    ~2 weeks from E-day, Gillespie jumps ahead of Northam in ad buys


    Republican, TX-22.

    • Tekzilla October 29, 2017 at 12:55 am

      Weird, is Northam sitting on money? He had a ton more at the start of the month.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 12:09 pm

        Yeah I thought Northam had a big lead in funds, so why is Gillespie now $400.000 ahead in advertising? Could be Gillespie has been getting a surge in funds from somewhere in the last few days or it may be supporting groups not part of his campaign have been spending a lot. Also where is the $ going? You have to watch out for high priced consultants and staff. They can drain your cash and not produce much for their salaries. I know that happened with a guy named Paul Massey who has planned to run for NYC mayor and quickly raised millions; but a lot of his $ went for high priced consultants and staff with little to show for it and he finally dropped out. Or maybe they have been put a lot of $ into setting up offices and doing mailings and creating phone banks compared to Gillespie, but I have no idea if that is the case. We need to see updated cash raised and expenditure reports for both the campaigns and supporting groups to get a better picture.

  • SlippingJimmy October 28, 2017 at 11:58 pm

    I would call myself a national liberal with some libertarian impulses, who supports tax cuts, regulatory rollback, skills-based immigration (but not as restrictive as the RAISE Act), and increased border security. I support a robust national defense to protect our security and economic interests, but we should be most hesitant of all to risk the lives of Americans in uniform — in 1917, 1965, and 2003, there was no interest of the United States that was 1) so compelling that it necessitated the loss of thousands of American lives and 2) could not be protected/achieved by means which would not result in the loss of thousands of American lives.


    Republican, TX-22.

    • pstchrisp October 29, 2017 at 2:25 pm

      Not exactly sure how that headline was derived based on that article.
      “For Adams, quickly gaining on Herring in recent polling, the challenge is not just trading blows with the incumbent, it’s getting out of the way of his fellow Republicans if the race isn’t going their way.”

  • HoneyBee October 29, 2017 at 11:27 am

    http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2017/10/29/mlbs-bruce-maxwell-who-knelt-during-anthem-is-arrested-on-gun-charge.html

    Not sure if this is allowed, but this is probably a boon to Trump’s argument about the anthem protests. This comes just after this guy likely lied about being discriminated against in an Alabama restaurant (along with a Democrat city councilman) like 5 days ago.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 12:39 pm

      Well maybe but it is only one person so you can’t generalize and say this is typical of all the protesters. But in this case I don’t know why a waiter in Alabama would even recognize him, much less jeopardize his job by refusing to serve him because he was an anthem protester; the restaurant manager backs up the waiter’s story. Then this guy gets arrested for pointing a gun at someone, so I know who I believe. I think it shows you have to thoroughly investigate reports of being discriminated against before leaping to conclusions. Needless to say there are public figures who will lie to make themselves look better.

  • The Zenome Project October 29, 2017 at 11:42 am

    Inside Elections has moved the Virginia Governor’s Race from Lean Democrat to Tilt Democrat: https://insideelections.com/ratings/governor

    On my personal projection, I’m now moving this race from Tilt Democrat to Tossup. Gillespie has been closing in during the recent polls, and momentum is pretty much on his side right now, though Northam still has a slight lead in the polling averages. It’s difficult to say whether Trump has had a positive or negative effect in the race, mainly because I don’t think that approval ratings create an accurate picture about what the general public actually thinks about him.

    • HS October 29, 2017 at 1:23 pm

      I have been burned to much in Virginia. I still think Northam will squeak it out. Virginia is still on its way to becoming hard left.

      • CTIronman October 29, 2017 at 1:39 pm

        That said Gillespie has saved the HOD which a Corey Stewart race would’ve endangered

        • The Zenome Project October 29, 2017 at 1:52 pm

          I really do think that Corey Stewart was a net positive to Gillespie’s campaign and maybe saved his race, mainly because he lost narrowly and scared the establishment into embracing certain platforms. The issues he ran on, like saving Confederate monuments and being hawkish on illegal immigration and sanctuary cities, are clearly popular with the general public.

  • aas34 October 29, 2017 at 11:52 am

    Wow, could there be a more obvious scam?

    Trump name dropped Joy Villa in a tweet the other day about running for Congress.

    Yet, all she has done is setup a website to solicit donations, as she considers running in numerous places where she’s lived or work in the states of CA, NY, and FL.

    http://www.newsweek.com/who-trump-supporter-joy-villa-694562


    32, R, CA-2

    • Izengabe October 29, 2017 at 11:34 pm

      This is the future of American politics. Get use to it.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Republican Michigander October 29, 2017 at 12:13 pm

    Póg mo thóin Newsweak.

    http://www.newsweek.com/why-are-all-conservative-loudmouths-irish-american-691691


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 1:06 pm

      Well the author goes on about loud mouth conservatives on Fox being of Irish descent, but how about MSNBC? Leftish MSNBC hosts Williams, Hayes, O’Donnell and Maddow are all of Irish or part Irish descent. None of them are exactly shrinking violets. Beware of sweeping ethnic generalizations.

    • CTIronman October 29, 2017 at 1:39 pm

      Word

    • Greyhound October 29, 2017 at 3:13 pm

      Slightly off-topic question here: does anyone have any idea what % of the US has at least some Irish Ancestry? I have to imagine its around 33% given how dispersed around the country they wound up being.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • roguemapper October 29, 2017 at 3:31 pm

        Well, the percent that claim Irish ancestry on the Census is 11% and that’s really the meaningful answer. The percent that have an Irish ancestor somewhere way back on their family tree is no doubt higher, but probably about 20% at most, as that’s the figure that DNA studies estimate for England.


        Dem NC-11

        • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 6:05 pm

          The 2013 Census Community Survey found that about 33 million Americans, or about 10.5% of the American population, claimed Irish ancestry. Another 3 million claimed to be of Scots-Irish ancestry. Due to intermarriage, as you say, if people looked back at their family tree they might find an Irish ancestor they didn’t know about, so the percent with some Irish ancestry may be higher. Even some African Americans may have some Irish ancestry they don’t know about, as most American African Americans do have some Caucasian ancestry.

      • davybaby October 29, 2017 at 3:54 pm

        On St. Patrick’s Day (naturally), Greg Giroux of Bloomberg tweeted this table showing the % of residents who claim Irish ancestry, by congressional district:

        https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/842751213674381312

        His full data set is in this Google Docs spreadsheet:

        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R4ZHlJWmJdr88gbCNqTQtn5nYvVPRjURuezTboseuZ4/edit#gid=1392352616

  • HS October 29, 2017 at 1:25 pm

    I am a strong conservative, and a hawk on foreign policy. But not a neo-Wilsonian; national interest should drive all of our decisions, not democracy spreading or human rights protecting.

  • bluewahoo October 29, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    I’ve always been skeptical in how much newspapers endorsements matter, but for what its worth, Washington Post endorsed the whole D ticket in Virginia yesterday, and the day before the Richmond Times Dispatch endorsed Gillespie.

    • w920us October 29, 2017 at 3:10 pm

      At this point the Washington Post’s endorsement is a net negative.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • HoneyBee October 29, 2017 at 3:54 pm

      The Washington Post always endorses Democrats, except for Frank Wolf, and Barbara Comstock once, and a couple Republicans for some local offices when the Dems have gone way overboard. This means nothing


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • bluewahoo October 29, 2017 at 4:01 pm

        Not exactly sure where you got that impression from. They have lately been endorsing democrats for statewide office, but if you look up their endorsements in 2015 and 2016 they’ve endorsed Republicans; including Comstock.

        That said, like I said in my original post, I doubt this moves many voters. From what I’ve read, the “editorial board” endorsements for the Post (in Virginia at least) are actually made by one guy, and if he’s interviewed candidates for prior races, he sometimes doesn’t do so for new endorsements. If it did have a big influence, my guess is they would take it a little more seriously.

        Both of these endorsements were very predictable, if that’s what you’re getting at.

        • HoneyBee October 29, 2017 at 4:16 pm

          They have never endorsed a Republican for President, I don’t think they’ve ever endorsed a Republican for VA Gov (they endorsed Deeds in ’09), I can’t remember the last time they endorsed a Republican for Senate, they endorsed freaking Anthony Brown over Hogan, etc.

          Like I said, they endorse Republicans for a few local offices and VA-10. That’s it. And they didn’t even endorse Comstock in 2014, and they very reluctantly endorsed her in 2016.

          They’re a liberal newspaper. Their endorsements may mean something for Democratic primaries. For Republican primaries and generals, they’re worthless


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • roguemapper October 29, 2017 at 4:26 pm

            In 1988 the WaPo said that either GHWB or Dukakis would be fine without endorsing either one. To be sure, I’m not contradicting your point. The WaPo endorsement is newsworthy only when they don’t endorse the Democrat since the WaPo is reliably liberal.

            As an idle aside, the WaPo has only been making presidential endorsements since 1976. The NYT on the other hand has been making endorsements since Abe Lincoln in 1860. The last time they endorsed a Republican for president was Ike in 1956. Curiously enough they endorsed Wilkie in 1940. Times have changed!


            Dem NC-11

            • HS October 29, 2017 at 6:08 pm

              That is very true. I remember when Pat Toomey won the endorsement for Congress of the Morning Call in 1998. The Call is a moderate but left leaning paper that (At the time and probably today) endorses Democrats for most offices. Toomey got it only because the state Senator he was running against was widely considered a doofus and unqualified.

          • bluewahoo October 29, 2017 at 4:35 pm

            First off, I’m 99% sure your comment ended at “…except for Frank Wolf. This means nothing.” when I first responded(???). Secondly, my post was solely about Virginia endorsement, which I thought was clear, but if it wasn’t I apologize.

            I agree with you that this endorsement likely will not have an impact in the race. The only time I think newspaper endorsements matter is when voters are incredibly unfamiliar with the candidates, or in low turnout races. The 2009 Democratic Primary, and the 2017 Primary, I think the post endorsement meant a lot, because they were endorsing candidates their readers were very unfamiliar with. Beyond that, I think the impact in minimal.

            I disagree that this “means nothing” because they always endorse the democrat. That would be like saying the RTD endorsement means nothing because they never endorse the Democrat. Both papers have an obvious tilt towards mainstream members of the two parties, and their recent endorsement’s reflect that. RTD made no endorsement in 2013, and endorsed Johnson 2016 as protest to Trump, but have reverted to endorsing the Republican now that he/she fits their desired mold. Likewise, Northam was nearly tailor made to get this post endorsement, not simply because he’s a Democrat, but because of the type of Democrat he is.

            As to HS comment, the Post endorses republicans in plenty of competitive races. Just in 2015 the endorsed republicans in competitive Loudon and Fairfax supervisor races, and in HoD races.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/10/16/the-washington-posts-endorsements-for-the-2015-elections/?utm_term=.bf176cf30c7a

            • HoneyBee October 29, 2017 at 4:47 pm

              Yes, I edited it, I thought no one would see it because I did it pretty quickly.


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • shamlet October 29, 2017 at 5:06 pm

              Agree with this. WaPo’s endorsement is actually one of the (if not the) most powerful in the country as far as newspaper endorsements go, because their sensibilities are basically that of the median voter in the DC suburbs. For district, legislative, and local races, that’s a big deal. But endorsing a Democrat in a VA statewide race is a yawn as the median DC suburban voter was well in Northam’s camp anyway.


              R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • HS October 29, 2017 at 4:02 pm

        The only time they endorse Republicans is if the race is not competitive, and they want to be able to claim that they have endorsed some Republicans.

        • Boehnerwasright October 29, 2017 at 4:36 pm

          Comstock in VA-10 was not a competitive race?

          • HS October 29, 2017 at 6:01 pm

            That brings up another exception – if the Democrat is truly horrible. Which Comstocks opponent must have been to not get the endorsement.

            • buckeyes95 October 29, 2017 at 10:40 pm

              Neither of Comstock’s opponents were terrible, they weren’t great but they both seem completely fine.


              R in OH-12

        • w920us October 29, 2017 at 6:58 pm

          It will be interesting to see if they endorse Hogan in Md next year.


          R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
          #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

          • shamlet October 29, 2017 at 7:33 pm

            At this point I would be surprised if they didn’t. The Sun Ed board has all but gushed over Hogan and they’re significantly left of WaPo.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • HS October 29, 2017 at 8:49 pm

              My guess would be if it is getting close, they will endorse the Democrat. They will feel they need to give the .1 % edge to their party that an endorsement may give. Otherwise, they endorse Hogan.

              • shamlet October 29, 2017 at 8:56 pm

                Actually it tends to be the opposite. They endorsed Ehrlich in 2006, while they endorsed O’Malley in the less-competitive 2010 race.

                Bottom line WaPo is quite liberal but generally not hackish (e.g. NYT). They are very much in tune with what the median upscale Montgomery or Fairfax voter would be thinking – which translates to D endorsements 90% of the time but the occasional crossover endorsement. For example, I imagine they would have backed McDonnell over McAuliffe in 2009 – that endorsement was about Deeds being their golden-boy.


                R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • davybaby October 30, 2017 at 12:24 am

        I believe the Post always endorsed John Warner–and Connie Morella.

    • krazen1211 October 29, 2017 at 4:43 pm

      Trump got about 2 newspaper endorsements in the country. Nobody cared.

      • davybaby October 29, 2017 at 4:54 pm

        In general, the higher the office the less newspaper endorsements matter.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 5:09 pm

        I can’t comment that much about the Washington Post but the NY Times, which I read, usually endorses Dems, particularly for the big races, although at one time they also liked Rockefeller. IMO the editorials at the Times have moved more and more leftward over the years; I would not call them moderate Dems by any means. Yeah occasionally they will endorse a moderate Repub in some local race so they can claim they are looking at candidates based on their merits not just ideology, but they are fooling no one with that line except the most naive. It’s just window dressing.

  • krazen1211 October 29, 2017 at 6:03 pm

    VPAP figures.

    https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-interest-2017-general-1/

    I figure higher turnout is better for us here. Also some figures are showing black absentee turnout down 1% or so from 2013.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 6:37 pm

      Why do you assume high absentee ballot turnout is better for Gillespie? You may be right, but for all we know higher turnout may be energized “Resistance LibDems” coming out of the woodwork. Big Dem leaning Fairfax County is not among the very top in terms of absentee ballot rate and more GOP leaning Big Virginia Beach has a higher absentee ballot rate than Fairfax and Dem leaning Arlington County and Alexandria City too, so that may be somewhat of a sign. But as I recall Va does not have that high a percentage of absentees compared to some other states, so the much greater amount of votes will be cast election day. Of course since Va seems to be the competitive race of this election season, it is interesting to try and “read the tea leaves.”

      • OGGoldy October 29, 2017 at 7:30 pm

        Virginia is an excuse required absentee state, which explains the lower early voting rate than elsewhere. As far as the nature of those excuses, and who is using them, is not a piece of information to which I am privy.

      • krazen1211 October 29, 2017 at 7:44 pm

        Well, to be clear, I am not sure if higher absentee ballot turnout will equal higher overall turnout. We’ve seen this early voting cannibalization before.

        Others have posted the theory before, but resistance libdems are the 10/10 engaged voters. Once you get down to the 6-9 on the engagement scale I think there’s a higher share of GOP voters in that batch, and those are the Trump voters that Gillespie has been trying to get to the polls.

        • HoneyBee October 29, 2017 at 8:13 pm

          God those “Resistance” idiots just make me angry. They’re just so hypocritical and ruthlessly partisan in every way. I think they’re all pretty terrible people. Most Democrats I know are relatively reasonable, yet I know a couple “resistance types” and I can honestly say they’re terrible people in their personal life as well.

          Who knew? An ideology that is largely based on envy for other people’s money, enforcing government discrimination based on race, hating America and all that it stands for, and the unequivocal defense of killing babies tends to attract terrible people. The reason they’re 10/10 engaged is because somebody came along and destroyed the Stalinesque PC state that they tried to enforce where Democrats like them loudly shout out their political beliefs and Republicans stay quiet in fear of losing their jobs or being socially ostracized, and the general public moves further and further to the left because all they hear is left wing beliefs. Trump destroyed that and now these evil people are ridiculously engaged. I’d love to ask one of these idiots: How is your life noticeably different since Trump was elected? And you know what? There’ll be nothing. But these people are mostly evil people who would rather shout other people down than engage in reasonable discourse.

          If you are part of the “resistance” you are an evil person. I have no respect for you


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • The Zenome Project October 29, 2017 at 9:06 pm

            The reason they’re 10/10 engaged is because somebody came along and destroyed the Stalinesque PC state that they tried to enforce where Democrats like them loudly shout out their political beliefs and Republicans stay quiet in fear of losing their jobs or being socially ostracized, and the general public moves further and further to the left because all they hear is left wing beliefs. Trump destroyed that and now these evil people are ridiculously engaged.

            My thoughts exactly. Trump was a turning point where the left’s constant domination of the culture wars and major institutions like the universities and the media finally backfired on them, and now they’re having a giant temper tantrum.

          • segmentation_fault October 29, 2017 at 9:33 pm

            Why are you mad at them for voting? Be mad at your side for not being fully engaged.

            • HoneyBee October 29, 2017 at 9:37 pm

              I’m not “mad” at anyone for voting, I think the fact that they’re so engaged though exposes the fact that they’re terrible people


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    This may be a little off topic but Saudi Arabia granted citizenship to a robotic AI named Sophia, the first time I know of that an robotic AI has been granted citizenship. This has the making of a PR event and is Sophia really self aware or just a product of very clever programming? But if you have time watch this unnerving interview with Sophia by CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin. She has a winning smile but can be a little creepy at times. When Sorkin points out that humans fear AIs may be a threat, as in “Blade Runner”, she says she only wishes to help humans and tells Sorkin he reads too much science fiction. But if AIs become citizens some day, how will they vote?

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/10/25/watch-cnbcs-andrew-ross-sorkin-interview-a-lifelike-robot-named-sophia.html

    • roguemapper October 29, 2017 at 8:31 pm

      So our future robot overlords will be repressed homicidal Wahhabis? Awesome…


      Dem NC-11

      • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 9:14 pm

        I was kind of surprised Saudi Arabia of all places would give a robotic AI citizenship, but of course there is a big PR element to all this.

  • Greyhound October 29, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    Iceland Election Results:
    Independence: 25.2%–16 Seats (-3.8% & -5 seats from 2016)
    Left-Green: 16.9%–11 Seats (+1% & +1 seat from 2016)
    Progressive: 10.7%–8 Seats (-.8% & no change in seats)
    Social Democratic: 12.1%–7 Seats (+6.4% & +4 seats from 2016)
    Center: 10.9%–7 Seats (did not contest 2016)
    Pirates: 9.2%–6 Seats (-5.3% & -4 Seats from 2016)
    People’s: 6.9%–4 Seats (+3.4% & +4 Seats from 2016)
    Reform: 6.7%–4 Seats (-3.8% & -3 Seats from 2016)
    Bright Future: 1.2%–0 Seats (-6.0% & -4 Seats from 2016)

    Arranged roughly by coalition:
    Center-Left: (LeftGreen + Pirates + Social Democrats) gained 1 seat and 2.1% on 2016. Total of 24 seats and 38.2% of the vote
    Center-Right: (Independence + Reform + Bright Future) lost 12 seats and 13.6% from 2016. Total of 20 seats and 33.1% of the vote
    Centrist: (Progressive + Center) gained 7 seats and 10.1% from 2016. Total of 15 seats and 21.6% of the vote
    Populist Right: (People’s Party) gained 4 seats and 3.4%. Total of 6.9% and 4 Seats.

    Need 32 for a majority, so the Progressives and Center parties are basically playing Kingmaker this election.


    R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • Greyhound October 29, 2017 at 7:46 pm

      Basically Independence didn’t do anywhere near as bad as the polls showed, the Left Green’s collapse in the polls close to the end was real, the People’s Party did better than expected, and the Social Democratic and Pirate parties both under-performed a little.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • Manhatlibertarian October 29, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    Well George Washington was a founder of Christ Church in Alexandria, Va, but now his church wants nothing to do with him anymore. A memorial to him in the church is being removed because the church board says a memorial to him does not make all feel welcome and may even make some feel “unsafe”. I mean Washington is not like a Stonewall Jackson or Robert E. Lee, whose only claim to fame was leading a rebellion. Washington led America to independence, discouraged an attempt at a military coup, held the new nation together and set a precedent by voluntarily giving up power. Yes he was a slaveholder, like many others at the time, but he was uncomfortable with it and willed his slaves to be freed when he and his wife died. So now a SJW church board decides to “demonize” him to show how politically correct they can be. I mean how many people feel uncomfortable around a memorial to George Washington? If I were Gillespie I would make a point of attacking this decision as political correctness gone wild with regard to monuments; I suspect the vast majority of Virginians do not feel their native son Washington is someone to be ashamed of.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/george-washington-christ-church-ashamed/

    • californianintexas October 29, 2017 at 11:30 pm

      I am far from uncomfortable and ashamed that my fifth-great-grandfather served under General Washington.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • Izengabe October 29, 2017 at 11:44 pm

    I’m a conservative. (That used to be enough of an explanation but since this is 2017 pretend it is 1994 when you read it).


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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