Political Roundup for October 30, 2017

Over the weekend in Iceland, elections produced a deeply-fragmented result, with no obvious coalition set to form. A four-party or more coalition of left or right or a minority government could be possibilities.

Congress

AZ-Sen: Former Rep. Matt Salmon (R) is quickly emerging as the more conservative alternative to the likely candidacy of Rep. Martha McSally (R). Neither politician has confirmed a 2018 run in the wake of the retirement of Sen. Jeff Flake (R), but both are likely to take a shot at it.

UT-Sen: If true, this is a big scoop; The Atlantic is reporting that longtime Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) will retire this cycle, and that he intends to support former presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R) for the Republican nomination to replace him. Romney is very popular in Mormon-heavy Utah, and would likely defeat all comers in the primary and the general elections. We’ll see if this is true, but regardless it’s an important development.

FL-13: Singer Joy Villa (R) is a big fan of President Trump, and the reverse is also true if recent tweets are to be believed. Villa is considering running against Rep. Charlie Crist (R->I->D) in his Pinellas County district. Villa would have an uphill climb in the Clinton-voting seat, but anything is possible when Charlie is on the ballot.

NY-21: Yet another no-name Democrat has picked up the gauntlet to challenge Rep. Elise Stefanik (R). This time, it’s Tanya Boone (D) of Granville. She’s running on a populist platform with a special focus on rural connectivity. If she somehow manages to make it to the general election, the Green Party nominee will take a significant number of her base’s votes, and Stefanik will likely flatten her. The really funny part of all this is that such a message, with a few other very local concerns tacked onto it, would likely be effective if backed with a cleared-field and big money. Thank god that the DCCC isn’t that competent.

PA-11: The race to replace Rep. Lou Barletta (R) is heating up, at least in the Republican primary. Fundraising-wise, it’s a three-way fight, with Andrew Lewis raising 116k in two weeks, State Rep. Stephen Bloom raising 110k in less than a month, and former state Revenue secretary Dan Meuser loaning himself about a quarter of a million dollars. With three well-funded candidates, I’d guess that this race will come down to the different candidates’ messages.

Governor

VA-Gov: This is a tad odd, but encouraging nonetheless; Ed Gillespie’s (R) ad buys have pulled ahead of Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D) for the last two weeks of their gubernatorial contest. This is despite Northam having more CoH. Northam is likely still slightly favored, but conserving cash this late in the game is a textbook dumb move. VPAP also has an awesome tool showing you which ads are airing in which part of the state.

VA-Gov Continued: A new CNU poll has the race for Virginia’s highest office at 50-43 Northam-Gillespie, though other polls have shown the race much tighter. Throw it in the average and we’ll see who was right in a few weeks.

VA-Gov Continued Continued: A columnist for the Richmond Times-Dispatch (which recently endorsed Gillespie) thinks that the three GOP statewide nominees aren’t really acting like a ticket. This guy comes at things from a certain point of view, but reading in-depth local pieces is almost always illustrative, so I recommend that you do so.

State/Local

IL-AG/WATN: He’s baaacck… Former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has resurfaced and is running for state Attorney General to succeed Lisa Madigan (D). If there’s any viable Democrat who could possibly lose this race, it’s Quinn. Let us hope that Erika Harold (R) takes full advantage of the situation. Quinn joins State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D), State Rep. Scott Drury (D), Chicago police official Sharon Fairley (D), and prosecutor and talking head Renato Mariotti (D) in the Dem primary.

CA-Prop: One of the proposals to split California into multiple states has qualified to collect signatures. The proposal would carve California into three states, wth two being pretty Democratic and one being swingy.

Detroit-Mayor: Well, folks, it looks like this one is going to be a snoozer. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan leads Heir Force candidate Coleman Young II 63-28 in the nonpartisan race to retain the mayor’s office in America’s worst large municipality.

Ulster County Lege: Jennifer Schwartz Berky (D), an Ulster County, NY, legislator, is in trouble for faking PTSD to try and get out of a traffic ticket. I’m not sure what her county legislative district is like, but the lame apology she issued seems to indicate either that the district is safe or that she just DGAF. It’ll be interesting to see if this story goes anywhere or whether it causes her trouble in the primary or the general election.

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143 Comments

  • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 7:59 am

    Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were told to surrender to federal authorities https://t.co/eTpi96IWXY


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MaxwellsDemon October 30, 2017 at 8:24 am

      Hardly surprising. Manafort is probably guilty of about 50 different acts of campaign finance violations/tax evasion from the past decade, so put pressure on him to flip, avoid a lengthy sentence, and start spilling about any collusion that he knows about.

      • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 9:11 am

        Since every corruption conviction gets over-turned there’s no reason to bother playing ball. The only thing that can prevent a corruption conviction from being over-turned is the admission of guilt.

        Besides why wouldn’t Trump just pardon him to save the hassle?

        • krazen1211 October 30, 2017 at 9:28 am

          That is true for elected officials like Menendez,who just asked for a mistrial.

          Not sure it extends to others.

          I suspect a pardon will be dangled out there but not issued for now.

          • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 9:33 am

            Oh yeah a pardon now just basically dares Mueller to indict everyone on Earth. But Manafort probably won’t even face a trial for years so it’s all a bunch of nothing for now.

            Since it’s not political corruption my statement is moot and not relevant. Money laundering convictions don’t get thrown out at near the pace political corruption convictions do.

            • MaxwellsDemon October 30, 2017 at 12:43 pm

              Pardoning Manfort would accomplish nothing, since New York could probably take up most of the same claims and prosecute him themselves.

    • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 9:19 am

      The indictment is completely unrelated to the campaign.


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 9:30 am

        Yup. He probably should have fled the country if he had a company in Cyprus setup to do this. Having a corporation set up in Cyprus is bound to raise the eyebrows for anyone in the world of taxation in the same way that having a company in Gibraltar or Isle of Man would (i.e. it’s almost surely an illegal tax/regulation dodge).

        • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 9:42 am

          You read the indictment and think “what the hell was he thinking?”. Everything was so blatant.


          29, M, R, NY-10

          • Upstater22 October 30, 2017 at 10:18 am

            Should’ve just laundered the money through a fake charity like the Clintons do.


            Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

          • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 11:46 am

            I mean the Cypriot banking system had its collapse a while ago so maybe he stopped caring. or maybe he did stuff there before that happened. But no one actually does significant business in Cyprus, what with it’s barely 1M population and such.

      • w920us October 30, 2017 at 9:30 am

        That hasn’t stopped CNN, MSNBC and other MSM from going into a full scale Trump-Russia orgy.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 9:34 am

          And Fox News and Washington Examiner and so on. If it draws clicks is getting play, money isn’t partisan.

        • FiveAngels October 30, 2017 at 10:04 am

          Compare the NYT and WaPo headlines. NYT: Manafort charged with tax evasion and money laundering. WaPo: Former Trump campaign chief accused of conspiracy against U.S. WaPo is so bad that NYT seems impartial.

          • segmentation_fault October 30, 2017 at 10:11 am

            The WaPo headline is factual. Manafort was charged with conspiracy against the US, separate from his tax evasion and money laundering charges.

            • FiveAngels October 30, 2017 at 10:26 am

              Factual, but highly misleading.

              • buckeyes95 October 30, 2017 at 3:22 pm

                I don’t think it’s that misleading, I doubt Manafort is too well known among most average Americans so a qualifier like “former Trump campaign chief” is probably helpful so people know who he is.


                R in OH-12

        • StatenIslandTest October 30, 2017 at 4:00 pm

          Lol I thought they might have to stop their Breaking News to wipe off the screen from some sticky stuff from the commentators 😉


          31, Jersey City

    • cer October 30, 2017 at 11:02 am

      If I’m Tony Podesta, I hope he has a really good lawyer.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • HS October 30, 2017 at 11:07 am

        Doesn’t he have Marc Elias?

  • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 9:10 am

    Oooh I think I might actually know the Boone family in Granville for NY-21. Finally just 1 degree of separation to a Congressional candidate, my life is complete.

  • HS October 30, 2017 at 9:39 am

    http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/357743-gop-lawmaker-once-held-a-knife-to-boehners-throat

    Don Young was pretty safe before, but I am sure this puts him in the stratosphere when it comes to popularity. And it would have done it even if it wasn’t Boehner.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 9:42 am

      You will take his pork from his cold dead hands.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • edtorres04 October 30, 2017 at 9:51 am

        HAHA that’s very true!

    • davybaby October 30, 2017 at 1:15 pm

      Young can’t lose in Alaska. He’ll either leave Congress in handcuffs or on a gurney.

  • edtorres04 October 30, 2017 at 9:50 am

    Wi Senate: It will be talk radio (which beat trump in the state primary last year) vs Bannon:

    https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/659967?unlock=GZWEWMDKYZWHFBSD&mref=homepage-free

  • LVGOP October 30, 2017 at 10:05 am

    The California Ballot Prop is just clearance to circulate for signatures not actually a vote.


    R/32/NV-3

    • Son_of_the_South October 30, 2017 at 12:53 pm

      Thanks. Fixed.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 10:29 am

    Unsealed now: George Papadopoulos, foreign policy advisor for Trump campaign, secretly pleaded guilty.

    https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4163402/Papadopoulos-Statement-Offense.pdf

    This is already directly related to the Trump campaign.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 10:43 am

      Lots of goodies here.
      Getting interesting.

      And he’s singing like a bird according to the indictment…


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • Tekzilla October 30, 2017 at 10:57 am

        One has to wonder if Manafort has or will flip as well considering we’ve gone from a guns drawn warrant to him surrendering himself willingly.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Left Coast Libertarian October 30, 2017 at 11:10 am

          Does Manafort have anything to offer? He can say anything he wants to get off but will it be real?

          • HS October 30, 2017 at 12:50 pm

            I doubt he does. But if Mueller were smart he would use Manafort to go after Roger Stone. And Stone certainly knows where any skeletons are buried.

            Of course, none of this has anything to do with Trump’s supposed Russian collusion or hacking the election. As we recently found out, it was Hillary who was colluding with the Russians (money for uranimum). But Mueller was always just a stalking horse for going after Trump.

      • davybaby October 30, 2017 at 1:20 pm

        People do that when they get scared.

    • cer October 30, 2017 at 11:00 am

      A meeting that was rejected by the campaign.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • MaxwellsDemon October 30, 2017 at 12:45 pm

        Not quite. If you read Allahpundit’s excellent reading of the indictment, there is far more occurring here. The Trump White House should be concerned: https://hotair.com/archives/2017/10/30/hmmm-former-trump-advisor-pleads-guilty-making-false-statements-fbi-russia-contacts-campaign/

      • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 12:49 pm

        Seems to me Papadoupoulos pleaded guilty mainly to two things. Lying to the FBI that he was not a Trump campaign adviser when he met with his London professor contact, when in fact he was, and downplaying the extent to which his London contact had Russian connections. Although his London source claimed his Russian contacts had “dirt” on Clinton, I don’t see anything in the indictment that indicated he ever got this “dirt’ and the Trump campaign made use of it. So if that turns out to be the case that limits the collusion allegation. Maybe he knows other damaging things but so far the actual collusion evidence is limited.

        On the other hand we know now that the Clinton campaign law firm tried to cover up the involvement of the campaign with paying for the former British intelligence agent dossier which contained actual provision, supposedly from Russian officials, of dirt against Trump like the supposed Moscow hotel room romp with prostitutes. Shouldn’t this also be looked into?

  • aas34 October 30, 2017 at 10:44 am

    I cannot see this being helpful if he becomes the GOP nominee, but I found it funny:

    “Democrats really fall into four basic categories: criminals, communists, crackheads, and weirdos” – US Sen candidate Corey Stewart (R-VA)


    32, R, CA-2

    • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 10:56 am

      Not exactly an inaccurate interpretation of the “Twilight Zone” Democrats, I’ll give him that.

    • Tekzilla October 30, 2017 at 10:56 am

      Well the wife does call me a weirdo when I watch too much Star Trek…


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 11:14 am

      So 1980s!


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Izengabe October 30, 2017 at 12:42 pm

      The sad thing is unless anyone else bothers to run Corey Stewart could be the GOP nominee in VA-Sen next year.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • TexasR October 30, 2017 at 12:51 pm

        In the likely event that Gillespie loses in eight days, he should be immediately recruited to once again save the VA-GOP from Minnesota’s proudest confederate.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

        • cer October 30, 2017 at 2:40 pm

          Some of you are way too down on Ed’s chances, just like some of you were too down on Karen Handel’s chances.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • Izengabe October 30, 2017 at 3:06 pm

            Bad comparison. Karen Handel was running in a Republican district and Ossoff was running against the natural lean of the area. That is not the case for Virginia which is D+1 vs GA-6’s R+8.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • cer October 30, 2017 at 5:17 pm

              I still remember in here the gloom and doom over Karen’s campaign until she WON of course.

              Ed is running a classic grassroots campaign which have a tendency to win on election day. Time will tell….


              Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 11:13 am

    PA-18: Democratic candidate suing her county party

    http://www.post-gazette.com/local/westmoreland/2017/10/30/Tim-Murphy-District-18-race-Westmoreland-County-Gina-Cerilli-Democrat-nominations-Congress/stories/201710290175?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook

    This boils down to Cerilli being a DINO in the social issues obsessed Democratic Party. She will get no outside cash if she is the nominee.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • TennesseeMike October 30, 2017 at 11:35 am

    “Ed Gillespie’s (R) ad buys have pulled of Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D)” Huh? I think something is missing. Do you mean “Ed Gillespie’s (R) ad buys have pulled ahead of Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D)”?


    TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • Son_of_the_South October 30, 2017 at 1:02 pm

      Yes


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 11:43 am

    It’s funny (or sad) that the 2020 campaign committees of both parties are going to need to make all staffers/volunteers take a loyalty oath to not conspire with foreign entities to influence the election.

  • bluewahoo October 30, 2017 at 11:45 am

    VA-Lt. Gov: Jill Vogel’s father has made a $400k “loan” to the campaign. I say “loan” because I’m always skeptical of these actually being spent, and not just used to make the fundraising numbers look better. That said, and I’ve mentioned this many times here, he is a very wealthy guy who I’ve predicted will spend on this race, and its become more and more clear Vogel is the strongest candidate on the R ticket, and Fairfax is by far the weakest on the D ticket. I would not be surprised too surprised if it was all spent, and/or she won the race.

    https://www.vpap.org/candidates/41567/donor/5143/

  • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 11:50 am

    With overwhelming support from non-white voters and double-digit leads among both men and women, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 53 – 36 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

    https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2495


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • GorrestFump October 30, 2017 at 11:51 am

      Trump JA 34/60, so Gillespie only outrunning him by 2.

    • GOPTarHeel October 30, 2017 at 11:53 am

      Does anyone actually believe this poll?

      I’m actually curious to hear from someone who thinks a 15+ point win is likely here.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 11:57 am

        Quinnipiac has been the outlier poll (in favor of Democrats) for the entire election. If you see the D+13 electorate that they poll (on top of the D+11 electorate that they used last time), it starts to become obvious why.

      • segmentation_fault October 30, 2017 at 12:03 pm

        I can see low double digits. 8-13. I have been saying I think the polling average will have been off like in the last KY-Gov, but flipped.

      • andyroo312 October 30, 2017 at 1:06 pm

        I don’t buy it, not the Gillespie number at least. I suspect Northam’s ceiling is 55 percent. (That said, I am of course predicting a Northam win.)

        If Northam indeed wins by 17 points, a true Democratic tsunami is nigh for 2018.


        MA-7

    • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 11:53 am

      Ignore other polls and this is possible, if you look at massive Dem overperformances in specials this year.


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 12:01 pm

        The massive overperformance in specials overall also came from rock-bottom turnout. Shock polls can frequently ignite the other side, as well, if publicized. I think the race is honestly quite close.

      • shamlet October 30, 2017 at 12:09 pm

        It’s possible but grossly inconsistent with the other non-polling tea leaves in the race. Northam would not still be airing almost entirely negative ads if he thought he were up anywhere near this much.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 12:45 pm

          Exactly. As we have more erratic polling, you have to turn off the objective metrics and start being more subjective.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • cer October 30, 2017 at 12:12 pm

        I think this POLL is way off.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

    • shamlet October 30, 2017 at 11:59 am

      I feel confident that this will end up between Northam +17 and Gillespie +8.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 12:01 pm

        LMAO

      • Izengabe October 30, 2017 at 12:44 pm

        As usual I agree with Shamlet’s analysis!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • shamlet October 30, 2017 at 12:02 pm

      For all the very justified complaints about herding, we’re kinda swinging too far in the opposite direction for this race. At some point this just becomes garbage in garbage out. The differences in turnout models are just so wild here there’s no real way to separate signal from noise.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • GorrestFump October 30, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      I think the negative ads from Gillespie have backfired.

      • cer October 30, 2017 at 12:13 pm

        I still think the mo is heading in Ed’s direction, and YEAH this poll is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 12:16 pm

          I think it’s also important to point out that Quinnipiac has had a massive polling tilt in favor of Democrats and Democratic-friendly issues for the entire year, across the country, including on issues like gun control. That means that you should take a poll like this with a massive grain of salt.

      • pstchrisp October 30, 2017 at 12:29 pm

        The Q Poll went from 53-39 to 53-36, so if Northam wants to see that move as Gillespie ads backfiring, when every other poll has shown the race tightening, Dems do so at their own peril.

        • GoBigRedState October 30, 2017 at 12:35 pm

          Yes-the general feeling around this race does not seem like a race where Northam is ahead by 16 points. I guess you got to give Quinnipiac credit-they’re sticking to their guns on being a major outlier-we’ll see if they are right(I suspect they are not).


          45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

        • fzw October 30, 2017 at 12:42 pm

          “when every other poll has shown the race tightening”

          Maybe I’m missing something here, but CNU, Fox, Roanoke and now Quinnipiac have found movement in the opposite direction. It’s only gotten closer in Monmouth and the Polling Company (if you count them since they selectively released the one showing a tie after a previously unreleased one with a Northam lead). That said, anyone who thinks Northam is up double digits or that Gillespie has a decent lead like Hampton does is on some pretty good drugs.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • HS October 30, 2017 at 1:05 pm

            Maybe so but the Democrats are very worried about this race, and are advertising accordingly. Thus, we know the Q poll is bunk.

            • fzw October 30, 2017 at 1:08 pm

              It’d be pretty stupid for them to act otherwise after what happened last year.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

          • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 1:09 pm

            I think Northam is ahead but the Q poll has a double digit margin for him mainly because they show the two candidates splitting the white vote at 46% a piece. I don’t think any other Va poll, including ones giving Northam a single digit lead, have shown that Gillespie is not carrying the white vote; so I think the Q poll has a distorted white sample in their poll.

            • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 2:51 pm

              Actually despite the Q poll giving Northam a 17 point edge, the RCP poll average lead for Northam went from 2.8 to only 3.3. The reason is that the 17 point Q poll lead replaced an older Q poll in the average that had Northam ahead by a substantial 14 points. Interestingly enough a Suffolk poll came out today that showed Murphy ahead in NJ by 16 points. Now is there anyone here who really thinks that Northam has a bigger lead in Va (17 points) than Murphy in NJ (16 points)?

      • TennesseeMike October 30, 2017 at 12:42 pm

        Historically unless the ad is personally nasty negative ads rarely backfire. People might say they are tired of negative ads but they work.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • shamlet October 30, 2017 at 12:18 pm

    RIP Jim Martin, the first credible R to run statewide in AL in 1962 (lost a Senate race by 2%) and then a 1-term House member from 64-66. http://www.gadsdentimes.com/news/20171030/jim-martin-dead-at-99


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • rdelbov October 30, 2017 at 4:01 pm

      Let’s remember the wild wild 1964 Alabama house elections. Lets just say that LBJ was not popular among actual voters in Alabama in 1964. Jack Edwards, Louis Dickinson and John Buchanan–all nice guys but with no political resumes beat incumbent Ds. They did not spend a lot of money but straight party voting killed D incumbents. These R incumbents had legs and represented seats with some urban and suburban Rs in Mobile, Montgomery and Birmingham. They stayed around for 20-28 and 16 years. Martin won an Eastern Alabama seat in 1964 but unwisely ran for Governor and got stomped by Lurleen Wallace. Martin also faltered in later races for the US senate.

      A 5th R in 1966 won an Alabama house race where Glenn Andrews beat another D incumbent. Andrews lost his seat in 1966.

      In next door MS the only R candidate for US house won a seat as 4 D house incumbents were re-elected with opposition. They could have all lost if Rs had filed for seats. Maybe?

  • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 12:44 pm

    Want to drive up conservative turnout in the quickest, easiest way possible? Show them this ad from the Latino Victory Fund. Awful, horrifying, and truly racist and prejudiced at its heart.

    • GorrestFump October 30, 2017 at 12:54 pm

      After the MS-13, sex offender ads I think Dems stopped cared about offending conservatives.

      • The Zenome Project October 30, 2017 at 1:00 pm

        How is either comparable to this? MS-13 is a real gang and a real scourge in Northern Virginia, and is a consequence of both the War on Drugs and the vicious illegal immigration/deportation cycle. It’s not in any ways racist to point out about how the Democrats’ support of sanctuary cities and protecting illegal immigrants helps perpetuate the MS-13 problem. Also, the whole sex offender controversy is that Gov. McAuliffe restored felon rights through the stroke of a pen (executive order) rather than working with and negotiating with the state legislature.

        When I lay the facts down in this way, how does an advertisement about either compare with stereotyping and labeling conservative voters as racist/prejudiced/Islamophobic bigots?

      • Son_of_the_South October 30, 2017 at 1:21 pm

        No, I’m pretty sure that they stopped caring when Bush the Younger was President.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • TennesseeMike October 30, 2017 at 1:04 pm

      This has huge potential to backfire! Somewhere Goebbels is smiling. This is hate filled propaganda worthy of the master.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • Greyhound October 30, 2017 at 3:50 pm

      That was actually kind of hilarious. I was seriously expecting it to end with a laugh track and the revelation that it was really a bit from a sketch comedy troupe. “THE WHITE PEOPLE ARE COMING! THE WHITE PEOPLE ARE COMING!”


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • pstchrisp October 30, 2017 at 6:38 pm

        My favorite part was they clearly wanted all the kids to wake up from their nightmare in bed, but since they are ignorant that Muslim women don’t sleep in the hijab (but they had to keep her hijab on because that’s the ONLY way someone will know she’s Muslim), there’s a kind of edit where it shows her sitting on the bed instead of waking up from a nightmare like her friends. She still wouldn’t be wearing it in her bedroom alone, but I don’t expect the Latino Victory Fund to be aware of other minorities’ cultures, they just needed a token Muslim girl and cultural sensitivity be damned!

  • Izengabe October 30, 2017 at 12:47 pm

    RE: Joy Villa’s latest publicity stunt Congressional run: Has a Scientologist ever been elected to Congress?


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • californianintexas October 30, 2017 at 12:50 pm

      Sonny Bono came close. He and Mary took courses, though he listed his official religion as Catholic.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • cer October 30, 2017 at 2:43 pm

      Hope not, and I hope NO Scientologist is ever elected to anything.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • LtNOWIS October 30, 2017 at 1:26 pm

    Flake considering running for his seat as an Independent:

    https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run/articles/2017-10-30/jeff-flake-considers-independent-senate-run-in-arizona


    28, VA-11

  • Left Coast Libertarian October 30, 2017 at 1:57 pm

    Democratic lobbyist Tony Podesta of the Podesta Group is stepping down from heading his firm amid rumors that Mueller is going to indict him next. Podesta is Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s brother. It’d be something if the probe Democrats were certain would take Trump down ensnared Democrats too and made the criminal activity not about Trump or Republicans at all.

    • Boehnerwasright October 30, 2017 at 2:17 pm

      I feel like you way overestimate both the importance of Tony Podesta and the willingness of dems to defend both Tony and John Podesta. A lot of dems would gladly throw both of them under the buss. John Podesta for HRC’s failed campaign and Tony Podesta for being a lobbyist.

      If Mueller goes after them also a lot harder to paint Mueller as an partisan or fire him.

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 30, 2017 at 7:16 pm

        I think Tony Podesta has a lot more friends on the Democratic side than Paul Manafort has on the Republican side. Trump was only able to hire him because he burned most of his bridges. Podesta was a Democratic insider, something Manafort used to be. If he is indicted it becomes a case about Ukrainian lobbying not about Trump being a criminal.

        We don’t know that Tony Podesta will be indicted. We know he’s named in the Manafort indictment and that he resigned right after that came down. The natural conclusion is that he resigned because it’s about to get ugly for him. Hillary Clinton ran for President when she was being investigated. In the Clinton orbit being investigated is no reason to quit your day job.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 2:27 pm

      Curious as to what source is reporting that Mueller may indict Tony Podesta.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 2:35 pm

        To answer my own question the story about Podesta appears in Politico. He did work for the same pro-Russian Ukrainian political party that Manafort worked for.

        • cer October 30, 2017 at 5:22 pm

          Remember 1 + 1 = 2, and there is definitely a strong connection between Manafort and Podesta.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 3:14 pm

      As someone who wants the bulk of the Political Staffer /Consultant Industrial Complex ran out of town or sent to Siberia, this is a good move.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Son_of_the_South October 30, 2017 at 3:29 pm

        Hey, man, I don’t want to go to Siberia!


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 3:38 pm

          You are not part of the bulk.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 2:21 pm

    Monday NY Tidbits:

    An internal poll for the Martens campaign by Clout Research (607 LV Oct 25-26) shows GOP candidate, former State Senator Jack Martens, ahead of the Dem candidate, County Legislator Laura Curran, by 47% to 41% for the position of Nassau County CE.

    Curran received the support of Dem leaning Newsday, while Martens received the support of law enforcement associations as he vowed to crack down on the MS-13 gang on Long Island.

    GOP candidate for NYC mayor, Nicole Malliotakis, received the endorsement of the conservative NY Post as well as the Jewish Voice and the Staten Island Advance (which had endorsed deBlasio 4 years ago).

    Meanwhile Mayor deBlasio has had unfavorable publicity in the last few days about more pay to play allegations from donor Jona Rechnitz, who deBlasio calls a “liar” and a “horrible human being” (gee I don’t think he likes him).

    In a close race in the open 43rd City Council District, Dem candidate Justin Brannan has made it clear he doesn’t want deBlasio in the district campaigning for him, as the mayor is unpopular in this Brooklyn district. Meanwhile, the GOP council candidate John Quaglione, has picked up the endorsement of the Jewish Voice.

    NYC GOP City Councilmen Ulrich and Borelli along with Dem City Councilmen Vallone and Maisel plan to introduce legislation preventing the mayor from removing historical statues (like the Columbus statues) without majority approval from the city council.

    A group of Dem activists is starting a campaign to get Dem voters with second homes outside NYC to switch registration to the area of their second homes. The thinking is that their vote will have more influence that way as opposed to voting in heavily Dem NYC districts.

    all at:

    https://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • Tekzilla October 30, 2017 at 5:16 pm

      Curran is up 43-39% in her internal.

      http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2017/10/curran-campaign-memo-shows-curran-ahead/


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • MosheM October 30, 2017 at 7:48 pm

        So tossup…


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 9:43 pm

          Curran poll was taken Oct 16-17 while the Martens poll was taken Oct 25-26, so the Martens poll is more current by 9-10 days. The Curran poll has more undecided also at 17%, while in the Martens poll the undecided is down to 12%. Still a close race and Curran’s main hope appears to be that the corruption of the Nassau GOP machine will damage Martens, although he is not accused of corruption. We’ll see. Also Martens was a state senator and ran for Congress while Curran is from a a smaller county legislator district so how could she be better known as the poll claims

    • RRR October 30, 2017 at 9:44 pm

      It’s Martins, not Martens.


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

      • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 10:09 pm

        I stand corrected; I will insert the “i” in the future without fail.

  • district1 October 30, 2017 at 2:30 pm

    Interesting summary of NJ Gov results from Steve Kornacki – the trend is that there’s no trend:

    2013 R+22
    2009 R+4
    2005 D+10
    2001 D+14
    1997 R+1
    1993 R+1
    1989 D+23
    1985 R+41
    1981 R+0.1
    1977 D+14
    1973 D+35
    1969 R+21


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 3:30 pm

    DC Federal District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly issued an injunction against the Trump Admin policy of not allowing transgender people in the US military. She said the policy disfavors a class of historically persecuted individuals and violates their fifth amendment rights. She also says the policy contradicts the conclusions of military leaders and provides no real evidence that transgender service members harm military unit cohesion. Actually the military has not discharged any transgender service members so far anyway, as military leaders try to work out a comprehensive policy on the issue by March. However, the judge did not rule that the military had to provide sex reassignment surgery for transgender individuals.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/30/560847850/federal-judge-blocks-trump-ban-on-transgender-service-members

  • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 3:33 pm

    So long House of Cards…I never watched but I’m sure some people care.

    http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/netflix-spacey-house-of-cards-netflix-1202602359/

    • segmentation_fault October 30, 2017 at 3:45 pm

      I liked Kevin Spacey as an actor (although HoC had been bad since Season 2), so the news about him was disappointing to learn.

      I just hope America’s sweetheart Brian Cranston doesn’t have any skeletons in his closet.

      • Son_of_the_South October 30, 2017 at 4:44 pm

        These allegations have been floating around Hollywood for years and years. The rumor was that the reason that they always gave Spacey a female Production Assistant onset (which is unusual for a male star so as to avoid this kind of thing) was because whenever he got a good-looking male one (and this is Hollywood, so they were often good-looking), that PA would get propositioned and often groped. However, out of a wish to not ‘out’ Spacey, plus the normal wish to keep stars’ transgressions out of the press, it went on for years without being public. It was an open secret in Hollywood, though. It was so open, in fact, that people were talking about it on Youtube, which is how I found out about it a year ago. Harvey Weinstein’s proclivities were similarly well-known, as were Bryan Singer’s penchants for having sex parties at his house that often included underage boys.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • FiveAngels October 30, 2017 at 3:35 pm

    ABA comedy hour. And they expect Republican administrations to cooperate with their standing committee.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/30/aba-trump-judicial-nominee-not-qualified-244327

    • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 3:43 pm

      This is all about abortion. Grasz is very highly qualified as he led the division of the Nebraska AG for over a decade that litigates constitutional cases.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • FiveAngels October 30, 2017 at 3:53 pm

        The language they use (“well-qualified, qualified, not qualified”) makes people think that ABA scores nominees exclusively on professional competence. However, they also reserve the right to declare you NQ on the basis of “not having a judicial temperament” (and this seems to be reseved for conservatives). Since Grasz is very qualified nominee by professional standards, I assume the issue was his activity in certain socially conservative organizations. We’ll hear more about this on Wednesday, when the Senate hearing is scheduled.

        • rdelbov October 30, 2017 at 4:08 pm

          This is a joke rating-likewise the other Trump nominee(from OK) with a NQ rating is rather insulting. Grasz is considered, in conservative circles, to be a well thought of advocate. He has done appellate work at the state and federal level. He has argued at the Supreme court for goodness sake. OH yes he is Federalist society guy and an advocate. Likely he does not have a friend on the 8th circuit bar association committee for judicial ratings.

    • Republican Michigander October 30, 2017 at 5:57 pm

      There’s a reason why I refuse to join the ABA.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • cer October 30, 2017 at 7:05 pm

        God bless you for that. 🙂


        Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Tekzilla October 30, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    Newsday has Tim Sini up big in the Suffolk DA race. Sini could be bench strength to replace Bellone or to take on Zeldin down the line.

    Democratic Police Commissioner Timothy Sini holds a 14- percentage point lead over Republican attorney Ray Perini, in the race for Suffolk County district attorney, according to a Newsday/Siena College poll.

    Sini leads Perini 46 percent to 32 percent, while Libertarian Christopher Garvey has 4 percent, the poll found. Eighteen percent of voters said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

    https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/poll-suffolk-da-sini-perini-1.14688232


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • shamlet October 30, 2017 at 5:27 pm

      No big surprise. Suffolk’s D and R parties have since 2001 basically reached a mutual understanding that Dems get the DA and the GOP gets the Sheriff.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • rdw72777 October 30, 2017 at 5:47 pm

        And Bob Corker gets dog catcher.

        • TennesseeMike October 30, 2017 at 5:56 pm

          Maybe for Halloween.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • StatenIslandTest October 30, 2017 at 6:00 pm

    NJ Polls: Looking more like a McGreevey (15ish) win than Corzine (10) for Murph

    Emerson 47-31
    Suffolk 49-33

    Still high undecideds but Murphy near 50. Guadagnomentum seems to have stalled.


    31, Jersey City

    • prsteve11 October 30, 2017 at 6:10 pm

      Yeah, it’s interesting that virtually all the NJ polls are saying the same thing but the VA polls are all over the map. Pretty weird.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Greyhound October 30, 2017 at 6:21 pm

        I think the difference is that White non-College Voters in NJ are way closer to the median voter in the state, so under/over-counting them in the turnout models versus College Whites doesn’t affect the overall toplines as much as it does in Virginia.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • Izengabe October 30, 2017 at 6:24 pm

    FL-27: Miami Beach City Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (D) who is running for Congress has accused Democrat candidate for Miami Beach City Commission Rafael Velasquez of exposing himself to her during a car ride. Gonzalez was supporting and raising money for progressive activist Velasquez before the incident. Velasquez denies the charges and claims it is a Gonzalez a publicity stunt.

    This is Velasquez’s second political campaign. He ran unsuccessfully for a Florida House seat in 2002 against state Rep. Gus Barreiro, whose campaign discovered Velasquez twice voted unlawfully before becoming a U.S. citizen. The following year, Velasquez was criminally charged with voter fraud. He was found not guilty of voter fraud but was convicted of making a false statement about whether he voted before becoming a citizen. Velasquez was sentenced to house arrest, probation and community service and he lost his license to practice law.

    https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/10/30/florida-congressional-candidate-i-was-harvey-weinsteined-115329


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • FiveAngels October 30, 2017 at 6:35 pm

    Trevor McFadden confirmed to the D.D.C. court, vote was 84-10. At age 39, he’s now the youngest Article III judge. Amusingly, all presidential contenders on the Dem side continue to vote against almost all Trump appointees. It seems like the 2020 primary will be decided by who has the most votes against district judges, ambassadors and undersecretaries.

    • rdelbov October 30, 2017 at 9:06 pm

      The Ds are making the Rs pull teeth out to get judges confirmed. I think by the year we will see confirmations in the range that I suggested last month. Saying that the Rs will never roll over again for D nominations for cabinet or courts like they did during the Obama era. The democrats are standing on the bridge and dirtying the water. When the next D President gets in all the talk will be able how fast Trump got his appointees and nominations through the process.

      • Jon October 31, 2017 at 1:11 am

        If the next D president initially has a R Senate; yes, but even if this is intended for 2020; more likely than not a successful D presidential candidate would also flip the Senate. (If instead intended for 2024 or beyond then more likely than not the Senate flips in the immediately preceding mid term.) Basically the next time the Democrats simultaneously control the Senate & Presidency they’ll change the rules during with confirmation process to eliminate (or greatly reduce) the amount of time the opposition party can slow down the process.


        45, M, MO-02

    • w920us October 30, 2017 at 9:16 pm

      Also “By a vote of 54 to 42, the Senate invoked cloture on the Amy Barrett nomination (U.S. Circuit Judge for the Seventh Circuit).
      Democrats voting YEA were Donnelly, Kaine and Manchin.”

      https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=1&vote=00254

      Also McConnell and Cornyn both said in Senate speeches today that all 4 circuit court nominations (Barrett, Larsen, Eid & Bibas) on the executive calendar will be voted on this week.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • andrew_1918 October 30, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    Charlotte-Mayor: Lyles (D)- 41%, Smith (R)- 40%

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=20e082cb-27f2-4d64-ae57-77599606e439

    • Manhatlibertarian October 30, 2017 at 10:00 pm

      Didn’t think this race would be so close; thought the Dem would have a good lead.

  • Aday97 October 30, 2017 at 6:53 pm

    Joy Villa vs Charlie Crist would be super interesting. The district only voted for Clinton 51-45 and for Crist 51-48. The districts Democratic base is primarily African-American in the downtown St. Petersburg area, where she could have some crossover appeal as an African American/latina candidate. She’s also Scientologist and their religious headquarters is in Clearwater, so she could have serious financial help and connection though that (not that I really am favorable to Scientology tbh). If she runs, she should run there. Crist is a three time party changer who lacks a real base other than general Democratic voters.

    • Tekzilla October 30, 2017 at 7:22 pm

      Would love to see Crist tear apart the garbage that is Scientology if she runs. Could really help expose them big time.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • cer October 30, 2017 at 8:01 pm

        Crist won’t have the chance because she won’t even get pass the GOP primary.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 30, 2017 at 8:16 pm

          An pro-choice atheist whose had an abortion herself could beat a Scientologist.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • TennesseeMike October 31, 2017 at 12:15 am

        And I would love to see Villa tear apart the garbage that is Crist. OK, maybe that’s a little harsh, but not by much IMO.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • w920us October 30, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    Apparently more election fraud than was originally thought as the Democratic State AG is pursuing charges against 4 Democrats involved in the March 21 special election for the state House’s 197th District. No change in results of course and the Democrat, who won as a write-in, won easily.

    Election fraud charges filed in 197th District special election
    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/election-fraud-charges-filed-in-197th-district-special-election-20171030.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Aday97 October 30, 2017 at 10:03 pm

    Ugh I don’t like Scientology either…. But Charlie Crist… Ugh. He doesn’t have any opponents as it is… And it’s a swing seat. At least she’s good potential $$$ and is interesting.

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