Over the weekend in Iceland, elections produced a deeply-fragmented result, with no obvious coalition set to form. A four-party or more coalition of left or right or a minority government could be possibilities.
AZ-Sen: Former Rep. Matt Salmon (R) is quickly emerging as the more conservative alternative to the likely candidacy of Rep. Martha McSally (R). Neither politician has confirmed a 2018 run in the wake of the retirement of Sen. Jeff Flake (R), but both are likely to take a shot at it.
UT-Sen: If true, this is a big scoop; The Atlantic is reporting that longtime Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) will retire this cycle, and that he intends to support former presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R) for the Republican nomination to replace him. Romney is very popular in Mormon-heavy Utah, and would likely defeat all comers in the primary and the general elections. We’ll see if this is true, but regardless it’s an important development.
FL-13: Singer Joy Villa (R) is a big fan of President Trump, and the reverse is also true if recent tweets are to be believed. Villa is considering running against Rep. Charlie Crist (R->I->D) in his Pinellas County district. Villa would have an uphill climb in the Clinton-voting seat, but anything is possible when Charlie is on the ballot.
NY-21: Yet another no-name Democrat has picked up the gauntlet to challenge Rep. Elise Stefanik (R). This time, it’s Tanya Boone (D) of Granville. She’s running on a populist platform with a special focus on rural connectivity. If she somehow manages to make it to the general election, the Green Party nominee will take a significant number of her base’s votes, and Stefanik will likely flatten her. The really funny part of all this is that such a message, with a few other very local concerns tacked onto it, would likely be effective if backed with a cleared-field and big money. Thank god that the DCCC isn’t that competent.
PA-11: The race to replace Rep. Lou Barletta (R) is heating up, at least in the Republican primary. Fundraising-wise, it’s a three-way fight, with Andrew Lewis raising 116k in two weeks, State Rep. Stephen Bloom raising 110k in less than a month, and former state Revenue secretary Dan Meuser loaning himself about a quarter of a million dollars. With three well-funded candidates, I’d guess that this race will come down to the different candidates’ messages.
VA-Gov: This is a tad odd, but encouraging nonetheless; Ed Gillespie’s (R) ad buys have pulled ahead of Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D) for the last two weeks of their gubernatorial contest. This is despite Northam having more CoH. Northam is likely still slightly favored, but conserving cash this late in the game is a textbook dumb move. VPAP also has an awesome tool showing you which ads are airing in which part of the state.
VA-Gov Continued: A new CNU poll has the race for Virginia’s highest office at 50-43 Northam-Gillespie, though other polls have shown the race much tighter. Throw it in the average and we’ll see who was right in a few weeks.
VA-Gov Continued Continued: A columnist for the Richmond Times-Dispatch (which recently endorsed Gillespie) thinks that the three GOP statewide nominees aren’t really acting like a ticket. This guy comes at things from a certain point of view, but reading in-depth local pieces is almost always illustrative, so I recommend that you do so.
IL-AG/WATN: He’s baaacck… Former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has resurfaced and is running for state Attorney General to succeed Lisa Madigan (D). If there’s any viable Democrat who could possibly lose this race, it’s Quinn. Let us hope that Erika Harold (R) takes full advantage of the situation. Quinn joins State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D), State Rep. Scott Drury (D), Chicago police official Sharon Fairley (D), and prosecutor and talking head Renato Mariotti (D) in the Dem primary.
CA-Prop: One of the proposals to split California into multiple states has qualified to collect signatures. The proposal would carve California into three states, wth two being pretty Democratic and one being swingy.
Detroit-Mayor: Well, folks, it looks like this one is going to be a snoozer. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan leads Heir Force candidate Coleman Young II 63-28 in the nonpartisan race to retain the mayor’s office in America’s worst large municipality.
Ulster County Lege: Jennifer Schwartz Berky (D), an Ulster County, NY, legislator, is in trouble for faking PTSD to try and get out of a traffic ticket. I’m not sure what her county legislative district is like, but the lame apology she issued seems to indicate either that the district is safe or that she just DGAF. It’ll be interesting to see if this story goes anywhere or whether it causes her trouble in the primary or the general election.