2017 Election Day Liveblog #2

 

8:25 PM EST: As it stands now, the Democrats are on the verge of taking the Virginia House of Delegates. several races are on a knife-edge, and we may not know for a while who controls the chamber.

8:30 PM EST: In NJ, Murphy (D) leads early in Hunterdon County. I’m getting pretty close to calling this one.

8:39 PM EST: I’m calling NJ-Gov for Murphy. Guadagno is actually doing decently compared to some of the polls, but it’s not nearly enough.

8:45 PM EST: Mayor Duggan is up big for reelection in Detroit, though it seems that the incumbent City Clerk is losing.

9:00 PM EST: Polls are now closed in New York and Minnesota.

9:02 PM EST: Switching over to Maine for minute, the Medicaid expansion referendum is currently passing 55-45.

9:08 PM EST: Democrats are currently leading in the two GA state house specials in Athens. The leads are narrow, but most of the votes are counted. Cracking Athens was probably a bad idea.

9:13 PM EST: Democrats are leading 56-44 for Mayor in Erie, PA with 24% reporting.

9:30 PM EST: In New York, Mayor De Blasio is rolling to easy reelection as expected, while the constitutional  convention and Adirondacks land use amendments are failing. The pension amendment is passing.

9:33 PM EST: The GOP has lost GA-HD-119 outright and probably lost GA-HD-117 as well.

9:42 PM EST: On an otherwise gloomy night for the GOP so far, something odd is happening in Scranton, PA. With 58% reporting, the incumbent Democrat is only leading by two points.

9:49 PM EST: In Minneapolis, incumbent Mayor Betsy Hodges is currently in fourth place. The voting here is ranked-choice, so we probably won’t know tonight who won the race, but it doesn’t look good for her.

9:51 PM EST: In early results from Westchester County, NY, George Latimer (D) is up 60-40 on incumbent County Executive Rob Astorino (R).

9:54 PM EST: In a bright spot, it looks like Sallie Mundy (R) will win her Supreme Court race in PA.

10:00 PM EST: Polls have now closed in Utah.

10:48 PM EST: Let’s do some housekeeping. Don Guardian (R) has lost reelection as Mayor of Atlantic City. Keisha Lance Bottoms leads  very early for Mayor in Atlanta. Brown (R) has won in the closely-followed NJ-SD-02 race. Democrats have held MI-HD-109 up on the UP. Most of the vote is in in Syracuse, and Ben Walsh (I) is ahead by a decent margin. Republicans have lost the Mayor’s office in Fayetteville, NC.

11:00 PM EST: ‘Polls’ have closed in Washington State. Of course, there are no actual polls, because Washington employs VBM.

11:10 PM EST: John Curtis (R) gets the check from both the AP and RRH for UT-03.

11:11 PM EST: In other news, Melvin Carter has won outright to become the new mayor of St. Paul.

11:38 PM EST: Please head on over the Liveblog #3.

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214 Comments

  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    It is becoming clearer by the day that running essentially as a working class white party is going to lose a substantial number of college educated whites who could care less about economic issues because things are going good forb them. I refuse to register as a Republican except right before primaries because I am merely closer to the Republicans than the Democrats.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:36 pm

      I haven’t changed my voter registration back to unaffiliated because of the closed primaries here, but otherwise I would too.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:38 pm

        I wait until 2 months before the primary and change it to Republican then change it back the day after the primary.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:39 pm

        My wife and I both changed to unaffiliated when we moved and re-registered to vote. I doubt I’ll vote Democrat, and I’ve never done so before. But after this year I can guarantee it will be a very long time before I vote Republican again. Certainly not within the next three years.


        • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:41 pm

          If you don’t mind me asking, were you a Johnson or McMuffin kind of guy last year?

          • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:45 pm

            I voted American Solidarity Party, but I was fairlt sympathetic to the McMuffin shtick (although never considered supporting him). I’m a lot more comfortable with the Bush-wing of the party, if that’s even a thing anymore. I’m very socially conservative, and center-left on fiscal policy. But the whole Bannon nationalism thing makes me throw up. I’m a married, white millennial, by the way.


    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:39 pm

      I’m glad that I live in a state without party registration. I am left of center, and there has been more and more friction between me and some members of my political party. I’m also part of a demographic that’s long been Republican but rapidly going Dem. The parties are going to look a lot different in 2030 than they did in 2000. We are in the middle of this shift, where the Republicans move towards being more rural blue collar white populism, and Democrats move to consolidating urban and suburban voters. Interesting times in which we live.

      • RRR November 7, 2017 at 8:48 pm

        “I’m also part of a demographic that’s long been Republican but rapidly going Dem”

        Being?


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

        • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:53 pm

          Caucasian suburban white-collar masters degree holding home owner.

          I didn’t grow up with that is my destiny, but at 33 that’s where I find myself.

    • AD123 November 7, 2017 at 8:45 pm

      This has been going on for 35 years or so, though, ever since the many wealthy inner ring suburbs switched en masse to Clinton in ’92. The trend has accelerated and decelerated since then, but it’s all been in one direction.

      At some point it will stop and a new trend with new demographic groups wlll start, but it can’t really be called a super recent phenomenon.

    • RRR November 7, 2017 at 8:48 pm

      Or who care too much about sound economics to put up with white working class-targeted pandering…


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:36 pm

    It’s early, but so far NJ Dems are set to flip three GOP-held State Senate seats.


    • jpb1995 November 7, 2017 at 8:44 pm

      Which ones do you think are gone? 11 and which other two?


      21 | R | NJ-9 (Home) | NY-12 (School)

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:57 pm

        40, 26, and 11.


        • jpb1995 November 7, 2017 at 9:03 pm

          Wow was 26 even on anyone’s radar?


          21 | R | NJ-9 (Home) | NY-12 (School)

        • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 9:12 pm

          40 is still only 10% and back to the GOP. Are you using the 6% in for the 26 flip? Because then the GOP is going to flip 22 because they are up 10 points with 14%. Realistically neither will happen, but we’ll see.

          oh and in 2 Brown is up 6 with 25% in which would be another GOP flip if it happens.

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:36 pm

    Roguemapper what’s your count on the HOD races?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:41 pm

      It looks like D+17 to me although I think it will be D+18 whenever Norfolk reports some more HD-100 precincts.


      Dem NC-11

      • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:42 pm

        How many Trump seats are in that count?

        • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:49 pm

          Good question! I had to look it up. The answer seems to be four: 26, 27, 84, 85.


          Dem NC-11

          • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:53 pm

            The last time Democrats FLIPPED a seat in Virginia that would have voted for Trump was probably 2007. Some of the hapless SWVA Democrats held on through the 2011 elections.

        • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:51 pm

          Oh, and the latest vote dump has the HoD at D+20 as things stand.


          Dem NC-11

          • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:52 pm

            20??!?!?!


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 9:04 pm

            I counted D+16, but it was a quick count.


            • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 9:16 pm

              If I’m looking at the latest numbers, then I see Ds leading: 02, 10, 12, 13, 21, 31, 32, 40, 42, 50, 51, 67, 68, 72, 73, 84, 85, 94. That’s D+18. A couple of seats just tipped ever so slightly back to the Rs.


              Dem NC-11

  • RRR November 7, 2017 at 8:38 pm

    I just sent my girlfriend to vote for Jack Martins. If he wins by a vote, you know who to thank. 😉


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:40 pm

      From what I’ve heard Curran should win by a decent margin with the turnout (if reports are accurate).

      Might as well save her the trip 😉


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    Lee Carter, who was left for dead by the Democratic Party earlier this cycle and was seen as a huge missed opportunity, won HD 50 by a whopping 55-45 margin. It’s that kind of night, it seems.

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:45 pm

      They probably did that because they would rather not have him in the caucus. They abandoned him due to personality not electability. But I guess if he holds the balance of power in the chamber they will be happy he won.

  • Conservative First November 7, 2017 at 8:44 pm

    Detroit: Mayor Duggan up big, Clerk Winfrey losing
    http://www.detroitnews.com/

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:45 pm

    I can’t believe I’m the voice of GOP optimism, but you all do realize that the 2018 elections will not be uniformly run in states where the state and local Dem parties are as solid as Virginia, right. Like the OH Dem Party is a wreck, the PA Dem party isn’t heroically better than OH, WI seems to get to 47% every election but no more, and so forth.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:49 pm

      We will see when the Chester County results come in and if their hapless Democratic Party made any substantive gains.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:50 pm

        But that’s still part of a bit of a longer term trend (same with Delco)…eventually they’ll move a little blue, or in Delco’s case very blue. Tonight might accelerate it but it’s not like that puts more than 1-2 seats in play and I’d still wager on 0 incumbent losses in PA.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:56 pm

          If the Democrats take a county office in Delco, Bucks, or Chester, that will be very big.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:58 pm

            Bucks and Chester bigger than Delco in my book (Delco falls eventually anyways). But yes I agree.

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:49 pm

      That’s a good point. But a lot of important House races will happen in places like California and New Jersey where the state Democratic parties are in great shape.


      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:51 pm

        Oh true, but it’s what close to 20 seats needed without dropping any…still a tough road to hoe.

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:53 pm

      RDW72777 Me to… 🙂

      I think folks on all sides need to chill.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 9:01 pm

        Panic/celebrate it is 🙂

    • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:56 pm

      There would be less pessimist talk if Gillespie didn’t have that polling surge in late October.

      • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:59 pm

        I am actually not believing that was even real. It was 3 Republican pollsters that dropped narrative polls on the same day, that wasn’t confirmed by any reputable pollster (No, Ras isn’t reputable again). The polling industry is a joke, but the fly by night operations that dump polls to drive a narrative on a race or two before disappearing come and go frequently, and never amount to much.

        • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 9:09 pm

          Monmouth Gillespie +1 was not a GOP poll nor a fly-by-night operation.

          • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 9:12 pm

            Aha, yes, I had forgotten about that poll. They dropped several in a short period of time, and I am afraid I’d forgotten that one. Mea culpa,

            • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 9:17 pm

              Well only three since August and one was yesterday, but who’s counting. They whiffed on this one.

      • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 9:03 pm

        I’m a bit annoyed by that. I was poised to predict a HoD flip if Northam was headed for a big win. So I’ll say now what I would’ve said then: People who think that a wave can happen without hundreds of legislative seats and a slew of chambers flipping need to go review what happened in past wave elections. If you don’t think either will happen, fine, but you can’t pair a big D showing at the top of the ballot with Rs holding firm in the state chambers. It simply doesn’t work that way. When gerrymanders fail, it looks like this.


        Dem NC-11

        • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 9:04 pm

          I said Northam+8, by far the rosiest prediction in the weekend thread but looks like I lowballed. I also said Murphy+24 so let’s see how I do there.

        • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 9:57 pm

          This scenario was in the back of my mind too. The late Gillespie surge fooled me though.


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Boehnerwasright November 7, 2017 at 9:25 pm

      While the poll average understimated Northam by 6-7 that is still within historical error margins especially in low turnout off-year elections. But that the dems now are fighting for control of the HoD is the bigger failure by pollsters/forecasters. Everyone saw it as safe R and this result should be more of a warning sign for the House in 2018.
      What was the message/campaigning that resulted in such large and unexpected gains in these races? A good analysis of that should be way more valuable then looking at why Gillespie lost at the top of the ticket.

      • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 9:28 pm

        What was the message/campaigning that resulted in such large and unexpected gains in these races?

        Oh, that one’s easy. You can find it here: @realDonaldTrump.


        Dem NC-11

        • Boehnerwasright November 7, 2017 at 9:31 pm

          Feels way to easy to just blame it on trump. While not representative as I follow more left leaning people on twitter I read a lot about how dems were organizing the delegate races/how many volunteers they had and how many people made phone calls to support HoD candidates.
          I heard next to nothing about what the GOP side was doing and would love to read about how the Virgina GOP organized the HoD campaigns and what can be learned from them.

          • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 9:38 pm

            The Ds are leading enough seats to take it but could still fall short. All but 1 of the uncalled seats can easily go either way as it looks to me. It’s funny that this would seem a wee bit disappointing now! Anyway, good questions. My answer would be that the downballot Rs in VA have been coasting on inertia for some while now. It’s basically the same point that krazen made about the OH Ds. The partisan drift of the state just caught up with them.


            Dem NC-11

  • rdelbov November 7, 2017 at 8:48 pm

    Well I was right–I said it would be a long night-oh mercy a long night with a painful result

    • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 8:53 pm

      At least the early results in NJ are 55-43. And maybe this is a kick in the butt for the Senate prima donnas to pass the agenda.

      The VA GOP is facing the slide away factor like OH Dems….I am not sure how easily they can adjust and if they are going to have to run Baker/Hogan types.

      • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:00 pm

        The floor is holding up nicely in NJ. Did they call this too early for Murphy? (jk)

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:54 pm

    If Dems manage to grab the VA House, imagine what that could mean for redistricting.


    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:56 pm

      Need one seat in 2019 in the Senate but they are essentially guaranteed to flip it I guess. There’s one in the Richmond burbs that was Clinton by double digits IIRC.

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:56 pm

      Relatively meaningless compared to 2010, where it was a compromise map when Dems held the Senate. If Democrats can wrest back a seat or two in that chamber, the maps will look markedly different, however.

    • fzw November 7, 2017 at 9:02 pm

      Oh if the HoD flips, a D trifecta is basically guaranteed. Just beat Black or Sturtevant who are in pretty D-friendly seats.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:13 pm

        Some of the HoD seats (26, 27) seem to have flipped back to the GOP.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 7, 2017 at 9:26 pm

        Dems could lose a seat or two in 2019 though. Which doesn’t seem impossible. 2010 was a better year for the GOP than 2014.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Mike1965 November 7, 2017 at 8:56 pm

    Maine Medicaid expansion referendum up 55-45 with 20% in.


    #ThanksObama

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:58 pm

      Susan Collins is patting herself bigly on the back right now.


      • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 9:01 pm

        Yea, this was Collins’ endgame, methinks.

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:59 pm

    Democrats are winning legislatures just as their legal strategy of declaring partisan map-drawing unconstitutional is about to succeed.

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 9:00 pm

      Maybe we can agree on gerrymandering then….

    • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:01 pm

      Well, their entire logic is being defeated, right?

      The Democrats drew the VA State Senate map, and the GOP drew the VA House of Delegates map (compromise is waaaay overstating it). Look at where those chambers are now. Sandra Day O’connor’s theory that gerrymandering is self-limiting is proving to be correct.

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 9:16 pm

      I’ve got D+17 in the House of Delegates. Two races are 50-50, one leaning R and one D, with about 90 percent of precincts reporting in those two races. Assuming it stays that way the House is flipped.


      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 9:20 pm

        And thus begins the bribes for party switches. Ironic that Northam will be Governor and tacit head of VA Dem Party to oversee such a situation.

      • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 9:23 pm

        Looks to me as if 4 seats with Ds in the lead and 2 seats with Rs in the lead are on the razor’s edge. Gonna be a nailbiter for the HoD!


        Dem NC-11

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 9:01 pm

    Looks like Northam wins by 3 points more than Tim Kaine won in 2012 but wins 5 fewer counties… geographic polarization accelerates.

    Fairfax/Alexandria/Arlington have become Virginia’s Cook County

    • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:06 pm

      Northam seems to have lost his home county?

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 9:01 pm

    Future potential watch – Chris Hurst won his HoD race.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 9:03 pm

    Upshot has Northams lead approaching 10 now.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • swami7774 November 7, 2017 at 9:04 pm

    This is bad, very bad, yet the MSM will overplay it as they always do. The real question is: can Congress pass SOMETHING in the area of tax reform while running away from Trump at the same time?

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 9:18 pm

      While I don’t believe tonight has huge governing ramifications nationally, I do wonder one thing. Does it make GOP reps in upper-middle class suburban seats, highly educated electorates and such re-think their vote on the GOP tax plan as is. Because that SALT deduction might weigh in on some of their minds. Not that it should, as I say tonigth wasn’t a national thing, but still I wonder.

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:20 pm

        If the richies are going to vote Democrat they are voting for higher taxes. Might as well let them eat it.

        • AD123 November 7, 2017 at 9:44 pm

          Thing is, many upper income individuals would do better (short term) under Clinton’s campaign tax plan than under the current GOP plan. Sanders is a different story.

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 9:46 pm

          The problem is that the GOP will reps will be voting on the legislation. Pinning that on Dems will be near impossible, especially in the House.

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    When do Utah polls close again!? 😉


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Son_of_the_South November 7, 2017 at 9:09 pm

      10 PM eastern


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • w920us November 7, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    In some possibly good news for the GOP in PA, 25% of the Philly precincts are in with only about 50,000 votes. Which could enable the GOP to sweep all 7 statewide judicial spots.

    Looking for silver linings!


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 9:17 pm

      The Constitutional Amendment looks like it will pass.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • w920us November 7, 2017 at 9:21 pm

      Now at 49% Precincts reporting, total Philly count is about 102,000. At that turnout level, it could be problematic for the statewide PA Democratic slate.

      At this point all 7 Democrats are leading in the state, but the margins are beginning to narrow.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 9:22 pm

    Well with 95% of the vote in Northam is ahead by about 8.5%, Fairfax by 5%, Herring by about 6%. The RCP poll average has Northam ahead by 3.3%, so what happened? Only the Q poll, which had Northam ahead by 9% was close to the Northam margin. Plus the Ds taking the Va HoD was unexpected. It seems the Dems really turned out; looks like Va is more and more becoming a blue state.

    • w920us November 7, 2017 at 9:28 pm

      I wonder if the fact that VA is turning solid blue the more important lesson of the evening. Of course the media will portray VA as light red and an electoral catastrophe the world has never seen before!


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 9:42 pm

        Well, the GOP has won a total of one gubernatorial race and zero Senate races in Virginia since 2003.

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:24 pm

    NYC 62-33 with 37% in.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 7, 2017 at 9:28 pm

    This really seems a lot like 2009/2010. Dems who ran ahead of the national Democratic Party basically died off en masse as Obama reverse-coattails fell upon them. Think Democrats in Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, etc. Similarly, Democrats in those areas seemed vaguely competitive in polling before being destroyed.

    We’re seeing the same thing happen to Republicans in places like Northern Virginia and Westchester County. 17 Republicans sit in HoD districts Hillary Clinton won. Almost all of them are losing tonight.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 9:37 pm

      Welcome to the California killing fields come 2018

      • jncca November 7, 2017 at 9:39 pm

        I’d worry more about the educated suburbs than CA (assuming it’s not a D on D Governor race). Yeah, Issa and (maybe) Knight should worry, but I think Peter Roskam’s gonna lose. Frelinghuysen’s super vulnerable. Comstock’s in a Lean D seat. David Joyce should be concerned. The two TX highly educated seats are tossups.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 9:42 pm

          Look at Virginia Beach, though. Not white collar like NoVa but the swing from last year was 11 points.

          • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:47 pm

            Isn’t that Northam’s home region?

            • fzw November 7, 2017 at 9:54 pm

              I don’t think hometown effect explains VA Beach. He lost his home county of Accomack by about the same as McAuliffe did (ie-didn’t do notably better there as he did in 2013)


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 7, 2017 at 10:13 pm

          Dem surges seem to come from an extreme surge in voter turnout among upscale white liberals, which seems to match what the Pew poll is saying. The Democratic base in many parts of California are actually working-class Hispanic voters, so I doubt the surge would be replicated there as strongly as it would be in say, Barbara Comstock’s district.

          I could also see Democrats surging in heavily Republican districts where the Democratic base is mostly white liberals. Think rural districts with big colleges. I don’t think it’s “upscale suburbs” turning against the GOP, it’s just turbo-excited upscale white liberals who are more likely to live in those suburbs, but not necessarily.

          Also explains why the Blue Wave didn’t help in GA-6, an upscale suburb, because the Democratic base is so disproportionately African-American.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • jncca November 7, 2017 at 10:19 pm

            Dems came within 5 in a district Obama got crushed by Romney in. GA-6 was not a failure for Dems any more than MN-2016 was a failure for Trump. Success is not just about winning. Margins matter.


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 9:29 pm

    Looks like Guadagno ended up winning Hunterdon by 20.

    • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:34 pm

      Guadagno is losing by less than Gillespie with 50% in LOL LOL LOL

      Won’t hold probably.

    • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:35 pm

      Looks like we are up in SD-02, SD-08, SD-39, SD-40. Down barely in SD-25, SD-25, but both of those are moving towards the GOP. The Assembly districts are weaker per NYT results.

      In PA retention of both SC judges looks like its going to win.

  • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    DiBlasio 63%
    Nicole 31%

    Pretty unimpressive for DiBlasio
    I guess NYC is not THAT woke!

    • RRR November 7, 2017 at 9:33 pm

      As much as I can’t stand de Blasio, I cringe as a former NYC resident when I see his name misspelled!


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 9:34 pm

      It appears the Republicans are over performing in PA, NJ, and NYC, but getting slaughtered in Va.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:44 pm

        Early results but Mundy (R) is winning Lackawanna and Erie Counties.

        http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

        Philadelphia and Allegheny much more reported than the rest of the state.

      • fzw November 7, 2017 at 9:49 pm

        NJ? They’re getting slaughtered in the legislature. Only Chris Brown is up of the pre-election “competitive” races, and he probably loses once Atlantic City comes in (none of it’s reported yet)


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 9:54 pm

          It looks like 7 and 11 will flip on the Senate side. In 16 most of Bateman’s Somerset isn’t in yet, and 25 26 39 and 40 look to be trending to the GOP (they are now leading in all 4).

          So likely D+1 or maybe D+2. Not good. Not quite a slaughter at this point.

        • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 10:37 pm

          Looks like Brown is still up by 6 and all of AC is in.

    • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 9:50 pm

      Malliotakis is getting about 30% with 71% of the NYC vote in. So looks like she beats Lhota the GOP candidate in 2013, who got 24%. Doesn’t look like she carried in the GOP candidate in the open 43rd Council district though. However, Queens Dem Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley is in a tight race with GOP candidate Bob Holden. She leads 52-48 with 41% of the vote in. She is the daughter of Queens Dem Congressman Joe Crowley who is also Queens Dem boss.

      Looks like the Constitutional Convention is going down to defeat. Good!

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    Yeger won my council district


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • Conservative First November 7, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    Flint Mayor Karen Weaver retains her seat. Beats the recall attempt against her.
    Rep. @andyschor has defeated Judi Brown Clarke to become the next mayor of Lansing.
    https://mirsnews.com/welcome.php

  • Mike1965 November 7, 2017 at 9:39 pm

    Minneapolis mayor: Incumbent Betsy Hodges is in big trouble. This is a ranked choice election but she is currently in 4th place in the 1st round with 18% with about half the vote in . Jacob Frey leads with 24%. It will be days before we know the final outcome.


    #ThanksObama

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 9:42 pm

    I think the House of Delegates has probably flipped, but there may be three or four recounts that will make it pretty agonizing. Three of those races has the GOP leading narrowly, one has the Democrat up. So it’s hard to see the GOP winning all four recounts, which they’ll need to hold the House.


  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Latimer up 60-40 in Westchester.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 9:48 pm

      Westchester is WOKE

      Scarsdale is WOKE

  • TennesseeMike November 7, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    OK, I was wrong. But I’m not ready to say Democrats win big in 2018. Remember, Democrats did OK in Virginia in 2016 while Republicans were winning elsewhere. The fact is Virginia has proved to be more Democrat than some of us wished. IMO, Virginia is now more Democrat than Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s because of all the government workers voting in big numbers. People who hate Trump’s guts. But that dynamic is not present in most other states.


    TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • Mike1965 November 7, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    Maine Medicaid expansion up 59-41 with 54% in. I think we can call this one. We will see more initiatives like this in 2018.


    #ThanksObama

  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    Appears Mundy is about to take the lead with 54% in the PA Supreme Court race with appellate courts close. Philadelphia and Allegheny are mostly reported.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 9:56 pm

      Is Mundy a GOP Court pickup or is it a hold?

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 9:58 pm

        Mundy was appointed by Dem Tom Wolf in 2016, so technically a hold. But she had never run for the seat before.

        A retention election is basically a guaranteed win but actually winning a partisan election to the PA SC would be nice. We lost 3 in 2015.

      • w920us November 7, 2017 at 9:59 pm

        A hold. Hopefully we also manage wins on the Commonwealth court since that is the initial court that deals with election issues such as redistricting. We currently have a 7-2 edge on the Commonwealth court.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • w920us November 7, 2017 at 10:01 pm

      Mundy just took the lead!


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    Where’s the NYC council seat #30? Looks like GOP might be flipping it.

    • Son_of_the_South November 7, 2017 at 9:55 pm

      Central Queens around Middle Village


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:57 pm

        Last name of the Democrat councilperson should have been a hint.

  • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    Time for the feds to cut a ton of swamp jobs in Virginia……


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • andrew_1918 November 7, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    Hunterdon County (NJ, 100%): Guadagno- 59%, Murphy- 39%

    2016: Trump- 54%, Clinton- 40%

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:02 pm

      Guadagno is outperforming Trump in New Jersey. Obviously underperforming the 2013 gubernatorial race, but it is one area that is not hemorrhaging GOP support today. Certainly a bright spot for the GOP, which is strange considering it’s a seat Red Team lost instead of not gaining.

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    Wow – hard to believe looking at the current results
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/928092522777374720

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 9:59 pm

      I suspect that VA predictions would’ve been far more accurate in general if the state had never been polled!


      Dem NC-11

      • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 11:02 pm

        Polling is broken, I said this in the last couple days. I would not have been surprised with a Gillespie win or a 10% Northam win. Even internal ones are not gold anymore. I no longer trust polling, but I’m not sure what to trust instead.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 9:59 pm

    Speaking of traditional Republican strongholds that don’t like Trump — Gudagno up by 8 in Morris County. Trump won it by 4.

    • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 10:03 pm

      Looks like she’s running a couple of points ahead of Trump just about everywhere. He lost the state by 14 so it makes sense.

  • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 10:00 pm

    MI:
    HD-01 – D’s win easily (Detroit based)
    HD-109 – It’s looking good for the D based on early returns. Down 1000 without Marquette City in. Low turnout.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 10:02 pm

    I’m sure the NJEA is glad they spent millions to try to beat Sweeney. He looks like he’s going to win by more than he ever did against the token Rs since he first beat Ray Zane.

  • jncca November 7, 2017 at 10:06 pm

    Dem % in non-NOVA Virginia, selected elections (2-party vote):

    2008 (Obama): 50.0%
    2012 (Kaine): 49.6%
    2013 (McAuliffe): 47.4%
    2014 (Warner): 47.2%
    2016 (Clinton): 46.5%
    2017 (Northam): 48.7%

    So one one hand, it’s not just NoVa where he beat Dems in the recent statewide races. On the other hand, he’s doing worse than Kaine did in 2012 outside of NoVa.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 10:10 pm

    With 100% reporting the R incumbent is ahead in VA HD-94 by 11,597 to 11,585.


    Dem NC-11

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 10:10 pm

    Provo is not WOKE. Curtis up by 35 with tendency to increase.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 10:14 pm

      DelCo is not woke. We hold all County races!


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • w920us November 7, 2017 at 10:20 pm

        It does appear Delco Dems are getting close in the county row offices for the first time ever.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 10:25 pm

          Since the 1970s.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • w920us November 7, 2017 at 10:29 pm

            Are you sure they have ever?


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

            • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 10:31 pm

              Yes before Home Rule.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:10 pm

    Lyles won in Charlotte. McFarlate reelected in Raleigh.

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 10:14 pm

      In Fayetteville it seems the incumbent R mayor has lost by about 41-59.


      Dem NC-11

      • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 10:16 pm

        Super progressive white city councilor Steve Schewel defeats Chamber of Commerce friendly black candidate in Durham mayoral election.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 10:16 pm

    GOP council candidate Holden is ahead of Dem NYC Council incumbent Crowley by a razor thin margin with 93% of the vote in. If he wins the GOP will have 4 Council seats, as all 3 GOP Council incumbents were re-elected. I think he is actually a Dem who is a CUNY Prof and a community activist and got GOP, Conservative and Reform party endorsement. This area had GOP Councilmen in the past.

    In the close Syracuse Mayor race with 18% of the vote in Dem candidate Juanita Perez Williams leads Independent Ben Walsh 48-45.

  • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 10:18 pm

    HD-109 – Rossway(R) takes Luce County 592-314 over Cambensy (D). That’s not going to cut it with Marquette still to turn in. This one’s over. Low turnout is a killer.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:23 pm

      Well, it looks like the Yuper Democrats aren’t quite all dead yet. Their time is coming up soon, but apparently it isn’t today.

      • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 10:32 pm

        I liked the matchups going into this one since this isn’t the normal “Yooper D”, but should have factored the special election aspect along with cities being more used to vote in odd years. Marquette is just as much academia as it is Yooper.

        HD-109 will be the last Yooper district to flip, if it ever does. (HD-110 flipped and flipped back to the D’s – but has a moderate D holding the seat)


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 10:24 pm

      MIRS just called it.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    Virginia pooped on an otherwise very acceptable night.

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:26 pm

      It’s pretty rough with losing 4 major competitive mayorships, 2 legislative seats in Georgia, and the governorship and legislative seats in New Jersey, and that’s without knowing who wins the Washington Senate seat. This is a brutal night for Republicans when you add Virginia into that mix.

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 10:34 pm

        Especially when both Washington and New Jersey are now Democratic trifectas, with Virginia perhaps soon to follow, all before redistricting in a few years. Those are little earthquakes, which is a bit unusual for off year elections like this.


        • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:45 pm

          Yea, Westchester and Nassau executives look like one or both may be going to be Democratic pickups as well. Nate Silver said that based on what’s out, Murphy should ultimately win by about 15, which is about what Clinton did, depending on which side of the razor’s edge that falls. And this was a GOP held seat, which is easily forgotten considering.

      • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 10:34 pm

        Yeah, but most of that stuff was baked in long time ago, and the margins aren’t bad in NYC and NJ.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 10:35 pm

        I agree. Pennsylvania appears to be the only bright spot, but that is a state a non-Trump Trumpian Republican would be borderline safe and the Democrats are horribly incompetent.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • cer November 7, 2017 at 10:37 pm

          Add U-3 to that as well….. Curtis is winning quite comfortably. 🙂


          Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Boehnerwasright November 7, 2017 at 10:33 pm

      Even outside Virgina the GOP is on track to lose most competative elections. Hard to see where the upside for the GOP is.

  • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:23 pm

    Where are the GA House seats? They are only 2 apart numerically, so perhaps they are geographically close?

    • jncca November 7, 2017 at 10:31 pm

      Both Athens-based according to the liveblog.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Son_of_the_South November 7, 2017 at 10:34 pm

        They’re two of the three seats that were used to crack Athens. I thought that the idea was iffy at the time in 2012, and I was right.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • andrew_1918 November 7, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    Interesting…
    https://project.wnyc.org/2017-general-results/?race=33025

    NYC-District 30:
    Holden (R)- 50.3%, Crowley (D-Incumbent)- 49.7%

    • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 10:36 pm

      There are 111 votes between them in NYC District 30. Likely this will be settled by the absentee/provisional ballots, so we won’t know result until next week.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 10:33 pm

    With 69% of the vote in Ben Walsh, supported by the Reform, Independence and Upstate Jobs Party is ahead of the Dem candidate for mayor Juanita Perez Williams 53-39 with 69% of the vote in. The city has a Dem mayor, Stephanie Miner.

    The Dems held the upstate cities of Albany, Buffalo and Rochester, no surprise, while the GOP held Binghamton.

    The race for the open 43rd NYC Council seat has tightened. With 91% of the vote in Dem Justin Brannan leads Repub John Quaglione 50-48 (Reform Party gets 2%)

  • w920us November 7, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    With Mundy in the lead, we will not be losing ground on the Supremes with a 5-2 Dem edge.

    Judge Christine Fizzano Cannon (R) appears to be moving into 2nd for one of the 2 Commonwealth Court slots, which alsos mean no change to the 7-2 Republican edge.

    Our 4 candidates for Superior court are still lagging.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 10:44 pm

      Murray will win one of the Superior seats. All the counties to not report are Republican with Lancaster (PA’s Washeska) not exporting anything.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • w920us November 7, 2017 at 11:09 pm

        Yeah I just noticed that. Any word why?


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • RRR November 7, 2017 at 11:12 pm

        Washeska? Really?


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 10:42 pm

    Bell conceding NJ-SD-2, GOP pickup.
    Guardian loses AC Mayor’s race by a hair
    http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/politics/election-updates-frank-gilliam-takes-atlantic-city-mayor-s-race/article_28c34dc0-ba6d-51a6-9793-2aac83709bb7.html

    GOP on pace to lose SD-7 and 11, net loss of 1 Senate Seat at the moment.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 10:43 pm

    GOP up 6 for Nassau County Executive. 41% in.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 10:56 pm

      56% reporting. No change.


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 11:05 pm

      47% reporting in Rockland County. Porette up 55-43.


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 11:12 pm

      69% in Martins (R) up 51-48


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 10:43 pm

    It looks like the Democrats will net 15 House seats in Virginia with three races going to recounts, two of which the Republican candidate leads very narrowly. So it’s going to be a couple of weeks before this gets worked out.


    • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 10:46 pm

      Wasserman and Tribett seem to think Ds will end up 51-49 up.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 10:50 pm

        That’s simply unbelievable. By far the most important result of the night, and also the one with the most far reaching implications in and out of the commonwealth


        • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 10:52 pm

          You seem to be thrilled about it


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 10:58 pm

          Well better this year than 2019 or 2021 I guess. But there’s no guarantee that they will flip back in the future.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

          • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 11:01 pm

            IMO it’s almost guaranteed that they will not flip back in 2019. If Trump’s approval follows the trajectory of previous presidents it would be lower then than it is now.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 7, 2017 at 11:19 pm

              Obama did better in 2014 than 2010.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 11:14 pm

            The point is that the districts will be redrawn before the incumbents lose their seats.


        • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 11:13 pm

          47 seats have been called for the Ds which is D+13. The Ds are also leading in HD-40 (by 68 votes), HD-68 (by 316 votes), and HD-85 (by 447 votes). So that would be D+16 and a tied chamber. I assume that would mean a power-sharing agreement for the VA HoD? Am I missing something here?

          Meanwhile, the three closest R-led races are HD-27 (by 129 votes), HD-28 (by 86 votes), and HD-94 (by 12 votes). So if a recount switches the results it would seem to me that it’s more likely to be in favor of Ds, right?


          Dem NC-11

        • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 11:44 pm

          Also, the unreported precinct in VA Beach is evidently the absentee ballot vote, for whatever reason, which is why HD-84 hasn’t been called. The R has a lead of 657. If the missing votes in VA Beach are indeed the absentee ballots then that district might very well flip once they’re reported (though it would be a surprise to me if VA Beach absentees come in that D-heavy).


          Dem NC-11

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 10:52 pm

      So the GOP might actually hold the HOD after all!?


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 10:44 pm

    19% reporting. Ed Day down 57-41


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 10:46 pm

      37% reporting in Rockland County. Porette (D) up 57-41 on Ed Day.


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 10:48 pm

    Is there an AP link for New York? Newsday seems to be lagging.

    But as of their current results some surprises. Toulon up 1% in Suffolk Sheriff w/87% in, Riverhead Supervisor Walter (R) is down a decent amount with it almost over, Sini crushing more than expected.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 10:52 pm

    Astorino down 59-41, 30% in.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 10:56 pm

      Sigh, another casualty


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 10:54 pm

    Republicans held two partisan city council seats in South Charlotte today. Hillary almost certainly won both.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 10:57 pm

      Also picked up Greenville and High Point, lost Kinston and Fayetteville.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 11:02 pm

      Kenny Smith would have won them as well.

  • Mike1965 November 7, 2017 at 10:55 pm

    St Paul: Melvin Carter will be the next mayor. Currently at 51% with over half the vote in. Only question is if he wins outright or wins in 2nd round of RCV. Name to remember in the future.


    #ThanksObama

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 10:57 pm

      Looks like I was right on St Paul (That it would be Carter, and maybe or maybe not on first ballot), but wrong on Minneapolis (who the hell knows, but it almost certainly won’t be hodges once the rounds are done)

      • Mike1965 November 7, 2017 at 11:03 pm

        50%, better than the average pundit.

        Minneapolis looks like it will probably end up Frey (he has most 1st and 2nd place votes) but it will probably be a couple days before we know for sure.


        #ThanksObama

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 10:59 pm

    Ben Walsh, supported by 3 small parties, seems to have won as mayor of Syracuse. He leads 55-38 and it doesn’t appear Dem Juanita Perez Williams can catch him. This is a loss for the Dems. Walsh is the son of a former GOP Congressman for the area, but attracts Dems as well as Repubs; he got big contributions from downtown developers.

    The GOP easily held the CE post in NYC exurb Orange County.

  • Daniel Surman November 7, 2017 at 11:03 pm

    Looks like we also have a second trans candidate winning tonight, with Andrea Jenkins winning a city council seat in Minneapolis. Jenkins was a policy aide to the outgoing incumbent and had the DFL endorsement.


    R, TX-14

  • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 11:03 pm

    Northam won VA-10 by 12ish.
    https://twitter.com/jmilescoleman/status/928103603407122432


    26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 11:06 pm

      VA results suggest Republicans like Barbara Comstock, Pete Sessions, half a dozen in CA, are screwed, but Manchin, Brown, Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester are not in the best shape either. Result of growing polarization. Not impossible that we could see 230 Dem House seats and 56 GOP Senate seats after 2018.

  • w920us November 7, 2017 at 11:04 pm

    Judge Mary Murray (R) has now crawled her way into 4th for one of the 4 Pa superior Court slots. If that holds our current 9-6 edge on the Superior Court would be maintained. Or it might be 8-7. I might be miscounting one of the current judges.

    Long Live Republican Women Judges and Justices!!!!!!!


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • hfcon November 7, 2017 at 11:13 pm

      Lancaster has results up here: http://vr.co.lancaster.pa.us/ElectionReturns/November_7,_2017_-_Municipal_Election/CatP.html (Why the state never seems to be able to receive these results directly earlier in the evening is something is still a mystery to me).

      Looks like Murray will definitely take the 4th slot, but that’s probably about it. Not enough votes left to shake things up.

      Amazing how little the bar association ratings mattered on the retention races. Multiple “not recommended” judges got through just fine–there’s maybe a 5% penalty for that.


      PA-02

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 11:07 pm

    John Curtis gets the check mark from the AP.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    Looks like the Democrats might flip 4 county row offices in Chester and Bucks Counties, but could not flip anything in Delaware County. Having 6 row offices out of 8 open has hurt us badly here. The 2 holds are incumbents.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 11:12 pm

      It looks like this is primarily driven by enhanced Democratic turnout and depressed Republican turnout.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 11:09 pm

    Ralph Northam won by 10.5 points in 2013 and 9 points tonight. But in 2013 he won 20 more counties.

  • Mike1965 November 7, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    WA State Senate District 45

    Legislative District 45 – State SenatorCounty Results & Map
    Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
    16,156 55.42%
    Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
    12,997 44.58%

    https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html


    #ThanksObama

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 11:18 pm

      What’s the story with SD-31? Anyone know? Everyone was talking about 45, but 31 was only a 15 point race, and I had no idea the election was even happening

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    I underestimated Dem performance in VA but overestimated in NJ. Trumpism a better fit for NJ? (Still a bad one, but relatively speaking.)

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 11:15 pm

      Probably part of it. How was turnout there compared to Virginia? I’d assume less because Murphy was just coasting to a coronation.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • w920us November 7, 2017 at 11:14 pm

    Former Democratic Congreswoman and current Erie County Exec Dahlkemper is just barely getting re-elected. https://www.eriecountypa.gov/county-services/elections-voting/current-election-results.aspx


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • w920us November 7, 2017 at 11:18 pm

      And the Erie mayoral race did end up being close. The Dem incumbent won 53-47.
      Trumpism is alive in Erie County.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 11:16 pm

    Dhingra up ten in Washington with 30k votes counted. So the Dems will indeed hold the trifecta in Washington State.


  • Son_of_the_South November 7, 2017 at 11:38 pm

    Please move discussion over to the new thread.


    24, R, TN-09
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

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