2017 Election Night Liveblog #3

2:30 AM EST: With most of the results now in, you can basically summarize all of today’s elections by “Who won that area in 2016?” Democrats won VA-Gov and NJ-Gov be margins very close to the 2016 numbers, and picked up some county offices in Blue counties with historic GOP leanings, picked up the needed Washington State Senate seat needed to control the chamber, with the GOP holding on to UT-3. That’s all for tonight folks!

1:35 AM EST: The broad results today seem to be the hardening of the 2016 coalition changes acorss the country. Democrats did great in areas CLinton won, but seemed to struggle a bit in places where Trump beat the GOP baseline like in small-town Pennsylvania. The implications going into 2018 are intriguing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats lose their 5 Romney-state Senate Seats even if they take the House, since they aren’t defending many house seats Trump won by 20-ish.

12:39 PM EST: Still no clear winner in the VA HOD. Might even go to a 50/50 split chamber. We’ll have to see.

12:01 PM EST: An Nassau County is in, and Curran seems to have won 51-48. Not a good night for the GOP there either it seems.

11:51 PM EST: Greyhound here. Lots of technical problems right now with the site, but I will update as I can.

11:41 PM EST: That’s all for me tonight, folks. I’m handing it off to Greyhound. He’ll provide occasional updates throughout the rest of the night.

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37 Comments

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 11:34 pm

    Ed Day now up 51-47. 64% in.
    Curran (D) up 50-49. 86% in.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 11:36 pm

    Sarah Anker won my local race by 10 points this time, no nail biter. News 12 called Sheriff for Toulon although Newsday Politics writer is urging caution with that so who knows.

    Now focused on Curran/Martins


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • hfcon November 7, 2017 at 11:38 pm

    Has anyone been able to find the Mississippi special results? The MS SoS website doesn’t appear to do live election results and none of the major papers in the state seemed to be covering them.


    PA-02

  • andrew_1918 November 7, 2017 at 11:44 pm

    Finally some good news
    NY City Council-District 30 (100% of precincts reporting): Holden (R)- 50.3%, Crowley (D-incumbent)- 49.7%
    https://project.wnyc.org/2017-general-results/?race=33025

    • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 1:54 am

      Holden is a registered Democrat running on the GOP line. Although he is very conservative.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 11:44 pm

    GOP candidates for Nassau County Comptroller (would be GOP pickup) and Clerk still lead even if Martins doesn’t. GOP leading in Oyster Bay Town Supervisor race in Nassau and Smithtown and Huntington in Suffolk; Huntington would be a GOP pickup.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 11:48 pm

    100% in. Curran won 51-48.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 11:54 pm

      The Nassau GOP richly deserved to lose. It’s amazing they did as well as they did to be honest.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 1:56 am

        But Martins is one of the good ones. The way it usually works in Nassau is the hacks get elected and the good ones only get nominated when the machine is desperate and they tend to lose because of the environment that the hacks have created.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 11:58 pm

    I said this 6 months ago in reference to someone on this site predicting D wave. I still agree with it, but since that time, Congress (especially the Senate) has continued to sit on their butts and not get to work. If stuff doesn’t get DONE, we will have a very good chance of Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer.

    Taking the special elections aside because the turnout dynamics are different – the left got their partisans out, but the normal swing voter had few reasons to vote for R’s. What’s been done in the past year? That’s killing us.

    “””””I’m dismissive about a wave because 15 months is an eternity in politics.

    I’ll change my tune however if the US Senate continues to sit on their butts and not get to work. If Congress does nothing, then there will be a dem wave – because the swing voters and sometimes voters will look at what’s going on and say “these guys don’t have their crap together” and either vote them out or stay home””””””


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 2:00 am

      I think you anaylsis it missing the 800 hundred pound oranged haired gorrilla in the oval room.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Republican Michigander November 8, 2017 at 8:39 am

        Trump needs stuff sent to his desk.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 12:00 am

    Malliotakis wound up with 28% of the vote, 4% better than the GOP candidate in 2013. Minor party candidates got about 6% of the vote.

    Dem Smyth leads GOP Assemblyman McLaughlin in upstate Rensselaer County CE race 52-46 with 31% of the vote in. If Smyth wins would be a Dem pickup.

    • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 2:00 am

      McLaughlin has won this race.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • hfcon November 8, 2017 at 12:01 am

    Looks like the Dems took the lead in DelCo (PA) as the final results came in. Via the DelCo Times: “Dems capture 2 Delco Council seats, 3 row offices.”

    Interesting note from the PA judicial elections: all the statewide court winners were female.


    PA-02

    • rdw72777 November 8, 2017 at 12:16 am

      The Delco stuff was bound to happen eventually. Is it within recount margin?

  • MosheM November 8, 2017 at 12:08 am

    Ed Day won reelection.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 12:15 am

    I’ll need to examine the traffic and error logs to see why the site has been crashing tonight, aside from the obvious spike in election-day traffic. The activity level that I’m seeing really shouldn’t be enough to crash the site, and if the site can’t handle it, then it probably needs major adjustments.


    Dem NC-11

  • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 12:16 am

    I will say this again, Northam was not a good candidate and did not run a good campaign and Gillespie was largely a good one. Sometimes the political environment just overwhelms campaign quality.


    Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 12:22 am

    Just looked at the Va Board of Elections site and by my count 50 Repubs lead and 50 Dems lead for the HoD. Some very close races so there will be recounts. Not clear if winds up tied who breaks the tie; maybe there has to be a power sharing arrangement.

    • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 12:30 am

      Yeah, I did a bit of digging around and evidently when the HoD has been tied in the past then they had power sharing arrangements with committee co-chairs and equal party membership on committees. If the co-chairs couldn’t agree on how to conduct committee business, then one became chair for the first year and the other became chair for the next year.


      Dem NC-11

  • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 12:37 am

    Republicans got shut out of the top two in Hunter Hill’s seat in the Atlanta suburbs… I think it was a Hillary seat but still a D pickup.

    • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 12:42 am

      Bigly… 55-40 Clinton.

    • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 12:43 am

      Geez really? How many Rs were there in the race?


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 12:48 am

        2 Ds got 24% each, 3 Rs got 18%, 16% and 11% respectively.

  • cinyc November 8, 2017 at 12:42 am

    Izengabe will be happy to hear that Steve McLaughlin (R) appears to have won Renssalaer County Executive, 50-48.
    http://www.rensco.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GEN-2017-Election-Summary_FINAL.html#1004

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 12:43 am

    GOP incumbent Astorino has conceded defeat for Westchester CE, trailing 64187 to 46785 at latest count. So now there will be 2 Dem vacancies come Jan 1 in the closely divided State Senate (the other is in the Bronx where a state senator was elected to the NY City Council).

    In upstate NY, Rensselaer County GOP candidate McLaughlin has narrowly moved into the lead over Dem Smyth 50%-48% with 66% of the returns in.

  • district1 November 8, 2017 at 12:51 am

    The big open questions for me revolve around the effectiveness of Trump-style identity politics messaging in places with more non-college whites than Virginia. 1) Does the message still work? And 2) like Obama, does the message only really work when Trump is delivering it rather than generic Republican congressional candidate?

    I think the messaging still works among the target audience and will result in other Republicans largely matching Trump’s performance. The issue is whether the structural advantages Democrats now have due to their status as the out party – as political science predicts, and which I think we can all now agree is happening – will outweigh that strong performance among non-college whites with higher turnout among left-leaning groups.

    On #2, people are probably underestimating how difficult it is for traditional politicians to adapt their life and political experiences to the Trump message, but given Trump’s high approval ratings among co-partisans they don’t really have much choice but to try.

    Until proven otherwise I remain bullish on GOP chances in places like Minnesota and Wisconsin, though it’s not hard to see a disappointed Republican base failing to turn out and getting another 2006, 2010, or 2014. Perhaps we’re doomed to have this happen every four years for the next couple decades.


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 12:55 am

      After 2018 I hope we can form a bipartisan consensus to enact Lyndon Johnsons proposal of making US House terms four years concurrent with presidential terms. The constant campaigning and massive losses of the party in power every midterm makes governing difficult if not impossible.

      • Jon November 8, 2017 at 6:44 pm

        I note that you are proposing basically the opposite of the consensus reached a few decades ago that most governorship should be held on the mid term years instead of presidential elections in order to provide a check on the presidency.

        Also, I think the country would be better of with gridlock than alternating D trifectas with R trifectas.


        45, M, MO-02

    • andrew_1918 November 8, 2017 at 1:10 am

      “I think the messaging still works among the target audience and will result in other Republicans largely matching Trump’s performance”
      And you are right.
      NJ:
      2016: Clinton- 55, Trump- 41
      2017: Murphy- 55 (=), Guadagno- 43 (+2)

    • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 7:47 am

      In Virginia at least it worked on margins but not on turnout. At some point it might be nice looking at turnout compared to 2009 when the bottom fell out for Dems in VA.

  • fzw November 8, 2017 at 1:08 am

    Trends from 2016 continue in Pennsylvania.
    Dems sweep county-wide offices in Chester County and Delaware County. Mundy did well in Erie, Lackawanna, and Luzerne. Same pattern repeated in Virginia


    Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
    R-leaning Indy.

    • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 1:14 am

      But Mundy did well in Chester and Delaware (50/50) also, and had the advantage of low Philly turnout. As the incumbent and a solid candidate, she was poised to overcome a bad year. I wouldn’t read too much into what happened in that race.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • Son_of_the_South November 8, 2017 at 2:51 am

      It wasn’t just Mundy. The GOP came within six points of winning the mayor’s office in Erie and within two IIRC in Scranton. That indicates that there were definitely shifts.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 5:24 am

      The Chester County and Delco results show that the Republicans got particularly hammered in areas being impacted by the Mariner II and III pipelines. The Democrats won a township supervisor seat in East Goshen, which Trump won. and picked up or came close several others in middle class areas directly impacted by the pipelines. I had a feeling this would happen, but I did not expect the Supreme Court race to have better numbers than local and county races.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • district1 November 8, 2017 at 1:18 am

    In other news, NJEA’s ridiculous effort to replace Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney with a Republican Christie and Trump supporter went down in flames. Sweeney won 59-41. Oops. What’s $5 million in union dues wasted on a quixotic and self-defeating political escapade between friends?


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

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