2017 Election Day Liveblog #1

Welcome, everyone, to RRH Elections’ coverage of this year’s November races, both major and minor. You can read Shamlet’s excellent previews of tonight’s various contests here, here, and here. I’m Son_of_the_South and I’ll be your master of ceremonies for most of tonight, handing off the baton to Greyhound for the home stretch later in the evening. Now, without further ado, commence refreshing five different tabs every third minute!

VA-BOE NJ-NYT PA-AP ME-NYT NY-NYT GA-AP UT-AP WA-SOS

 

7 PM EST: Polls have now closed in Virginia, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

7:18 PM EST: Smyth County in rural SWVA is the first to drop its absentees. Gillespie leads there 66-33. Of note, Hyra is only pulling 1%.

7:21 PM EST: As is now customary, Pinellas County, FL is counting quickly. The early vote and 16 precincts are in so far, and Kriseman (D) leads Baker (R) 51-49 for St. petersburg Mayor.

7:26 PM EST: After a big vote dump from Chesterfield and some smaller counties, Northam leads Gillespie 50-49.

7:28 PM EST: Another big dump from Chesterfield puts Gillespie up 51-48.

7:30 PM EST: Polls in Charlotte, Raleigh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Toledo have just closed.

7;35 PM EST: Contrary to predictions, Vogel and Adams seem to be outrunning Gillespie by about two points.

7:40 PM EST: As Northam seems to be over performing his benchmarks, Lyles (D) wins the early vote with 65% over Smith (R) in Charlotte.

7:45 PM EST: Northam is up on Gillespie by 3, Fairfax and Herring are barely up on Vogel and Adams.

7:54 PM EST: As we approach the next round of poll closings, I’m calling VA-Gov for Ralph Northam (D). There are still a lot of votes to count, but Gillespie just isn’t getting the margins that he needs.

8:00 PM EST: Polls have now closed in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi.

8:02 PM EST: Democrats have held the Mayor’s office in St. Petersburg, FL and picked up the same office in Manchester, NH.

8:15 PM EST: I’m going to go ahead and call VA-LG and VA-AG for the Democrats. Vogel and Adams are running ahead of Gillespie, but not by nearly enough to prevail.

8:20 PM EST: In the first batch of results from NJ, Guadagno is leading Murphy by 20, but it’s just a few votes from rural and very Republican Sussex County.

8:23 PM EST: This thread is getting a little full. Please take the discussion over the Liveblog #2.

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193 Comments

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:02 pm

    Posted this in the other thread, but it fits better here.

    This is completely anecdotal and likely means nothing.

    But I have 2 different friends who are solid Democrats and usually vote straight D, but voted Northam/Vogel/Adams

    I’m surprised. I didn’t think Adams would get any crossover votes


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • rdelbov November 7, 2017 at 7:14 pm

    Turnout-turnout-turnout—-Not sure many voters have changed their minds in this race in VA over the last week or two. Its all about motivation. Saying that Northam should have coasted to a win and I think it will be a long night.

  • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 7:14 pm

    1st Precinct in in Smyth County in SWVA–Gillespie up 66%-33% there. Its actually way below his target for the county at 75%.


    R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 7:15 pm

      I take that back–It was the “Absentee” Precinct. Much less dire for Gillespie then, as it could easily be well left of the county as a whole.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:17 pm

      Precinct was 153-99 for Cuccinelli


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 7:17 pm

      Trump’s numbers are not targets for Gillespie in SWVA. Trump’s numbers are God mode for Republicans in this region.

      • aggou November 7, 2017 at 7:20 pm

        According to the exits, Gillespie has done even better than Trump in the mountains. So, perhaps it’ll become more common.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    n #StPetersburg mayoral race:

    With 16 of 92 precincts + early vote counted.

    Rick @Kriseman 51.21%
    Rick @BakerStPete 48.79%


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • TheWizardOf144 November 7, 2017 at 7:19 pm

      This one will go Kriseman.

  • district1 November 7, 2017 at 7:19 pm

    Realignment is happening right before our eyes.

    https://twitter.com/PostPolls/status/928052628973588480


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 7:21 pm

      The most expensive brainwashing technique ever is producing results.

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:21 pm

      Those exit polls are 100% incorrect with the electorate. Weighing too educated as always


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • RRR November 7, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      I think a lot of that will depend on the path Dems take in 2020. If they go the radical/blisteringly angry route, a la the Dems’ current response to Trump, I suspect white, college-educated voters will sit on their hands or vote for a Kasich/Hickenlooper ticket. That would preclude a realignment to the Democrats. Yet, I expect them to punish Dems in 2017-2018 in any instance.


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

      • district1 November 7, 2017 at 7:32 pm

        I’m looking more at the non-college whites, and realignment in the opposite direction. If this is a long term trend (and I think it is) then the Midwest will start looking a lot like the South.

        College whites are likewise likely to continue to trend Democratic but that’s being outweighed and then some by the massive margins among non-college whites. Moreover it’s not like there are a bunch of Virginias out there (true swing states with a large educated class) to counterbalance Iowa and Ohio being lost for a generation.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 7:34 pm

          North Carolina and Georgia probably at some point.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:21 pm

    Gillespie up 1.5% in big Chesterfield dump
    Adams and Vogel up 4

    http://electionresults.chesterfield.gov/Results/0Zuq


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 7:22 pm

      John Adams is leading the GOP ticket

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:23 pm

      Northam now up in Chesterfield. Trump county.


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 7:21 pm

    Some precincts in Brunswick County (Southern Black Belt) are in. Gillespie under-performing Trump by about 2% in them, but Turnout is higher in the more GOP-leaning precincts.


    R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    Williamsburg, VA Matoaka precinct:

    Northam: 1,769
    Gillespie: 633

    Was McAuliffe 1,399-668 in ’13. Good sign for Northam.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Son_of_the_South November 7, 2017 at 7:26 pm

      That’s the William and Mary precinct. From going to college there, I can tell that’s an outpost of the NOVA woke warriors.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    The New York Times is FAILING

    “Ed Gillespie leads by 47 percentage points over Clifford Hyra with 2 percent of precincts fully reporting.”

    • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      Ralph Northam got ran over


      Republican, TX-22.

    • Kappaclysm November 7, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      And it’s back.

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 7:25 pm

    With 11% in Chesterfield, AP has it 51.4% Gillespie, 47.5% Northam

    And close in Chesterfield is good news for Dems. Went GOP 49%-41% in ’13

    https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/928055641733783553

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:29 pm

      That’s really hard to tell, you have to look at the individual precincts. Could be black precincts in chesterfield reporting


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:26 pm

    Precinct 401 in Prince William County went 57-41 Gillespie. Trump won 57-35 and Romney won 60-37

    Doesn’t look good so far


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    We have data in one of our bellwether precincts:

    Virginia Beach City 42 – Brandon

    Northam: 1059
    Gillespie: 798
    Hyra: 10

    DDHQ

    Nothing pointing to anything other than an easy Northam win.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    Gillespie barely up in Chesterfield.

    http://electionresults.chesterfield.gov/Results/0Zuq

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:30 pm

    This is really early, but I’d call it for Northam at this point


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:31 pm

    Northam running 6 points ahead of Upshot benchmarks.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:32 pm

    Bull precinct, Buchanan Co., deep in the heart of SWVA’s Trump country:

    Gillespie: 178
    Northam: 37

    In 2013, Cuccinelli won 197-55. Gillespie’s getting the support level he needs, but not the turnout he needs there.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:33 pm

    Gillespie seems to be underperforming Donald Trump in Northern Virginia. I think this is over. These resistance assholes won.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • aggou November 7, 2017 at 7:39 pm

      Can you not? Again, Northern VA is incredibly well off. Not the resistance types, other than in their voting.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:33 pm

    Prince William precinct 310 –

    McAuliffe +269 votes
    Northam +436 votes


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 7:34 pm

    It’s still early with a lot of votes out, of course, but here are the current leaders in HoD GOP seats rated competitive by Sabato’s site that have reported votes.

    D lead: 02, 13, 31, 50, 68, 72, 73

    R lead: 12, 51

    The R leads in currently D 87.


    Dem NC-11

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:34 pm

    Upshot meter has Northam +5.8 projection.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:35 pm

    In Arlington-Park Lane, went from Mcauliffe 13 – 1,012, to Northam -1,528. Wow


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 7:36 pm

      RIP


      Republican, TX-22.

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 7:35 pm

    Vi Lyles leads Kenny Smith (R) 64-35 in early vote (Charlotte)

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:35 pm

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/928058137374019585

    Looking very good for Northam.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 7:36 pm

    Northam probably wins Virginia Beach too, this is over.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    In every precinct I’ve checked, Gillespie has underperformed both Trump and Romney. Trump and Romney lost the state by 4 and 5%.

    This is over, and it’s not going to be that close. These are precincts from all across the state. NoVA, Richmond, Hampton Roads. I think the sample size is too great. This is done.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 7:50 pm

      What about in rural areas?


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        Slightly underperforming Trump in most rural areas, overperforming Romney


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    Polls can miss the other way as well. Looks like Northam will overperform all polls.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 7:41 pm

      You must have missed the Chris Rawlings super-predictor Poll2000.


    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:43 pm

      May have been an overcorrection from 2016’s polling failure

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    At the moment, Northam is running *8* points above the baseline for a tied election. He has a clear advantage.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:39 pm

    Yea. I’m not quite ready to call it, but with what’s reporting, it looks like an 8-10 point Northam win

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:39 pm

    Old conventional wisdom: Northam’s campaign had no clue what it was doing. New conventional wisdom: best campaign ever.

    Enten


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • district1 November 7, 2017 at 7:43 pm

      New CW: True Virginian Ralph Northam, with his ear to the ground in the state, shut out the Twitter backbiting and increasingly crappy public polling and ran a consistent, centrist campaign.

      Northam consultants: Pollie Awards here we come!


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 7:52 pm

      He had no clue what he was doing. But sometimes the political environment overwhelms bad/good campaigns.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    So I’m seeing between 9 and 11 HoD seats flipping from R to D, if my math is right. Several key races are outstanding, so that number may go up.


    • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:41 pm

      How is Marshall vs. Roem going?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 7:42 pm

        She’s winning by 10

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 7:42 pm

        Roem is up by about 20 (!!!!).


        • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:45 pm

          HOLY CRAP


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 7:42 pm

      My math is D+12 at the moment.


      Dem NC-11

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe are on CNN together… LOL

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    43/97 reporting in vote-rich (and very rich) Loudoun (Gillespie narrowly carried 2014) – Northam up 59-40


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • RRR November 7, 2017 at 7:46 pm

      Utterly shocking! Donald Trump has put the white collar suburban GOP on life support… Gaaaah.


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

      • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 7:48 pm

        Who would have thought that white identity politics would turn them off, must be the “brainwashing.”


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    Huh. Finally found some precincts where Gillespie outperformed Trump and Romneye. 305 and 306 in outer Chesterfield County. Super Republican precincts where Gillespie>Trump>Romney


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    I was badly wrong. 🙁


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:42 pm

      It’s not over, but even if you are, it happens man. I’ve been very wrong in recent cycles, theres always the next election!


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:45 pm

        That’s the best part about politics. We get to either lick our wounds or nurse our celebratory hangovers, and get back at it again for the next cycle. Most people decry the perpetual campaign era in which we live, but it fuels my addiction.

  • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    A shame…

    Ed would have made a great governor.

    If only they would have sent him another half a million in 2014…


    Republican, TX-22.

  • kev-inVA10 November 7, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    In Loudoun, Republican Tag Greason HoD-32 losing big and Democrat incumbent John Bell HoD-58 is wining big.

    Not looking good in PW and Henrico too.


    R-VA Ex-R-MI

  • RogueBeaver November 7, 2017 at 7:44 pm

    Wasserman calls it for Northam. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/928060102040485888


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 7:46 pm

    Wow. Right now the Dems are up in 13 GOP-held House of Delegate seats. Some are really tight, though. They won’t get 17, but they’ll probably get between 10 and 15. Some of these races are like D+20 at the moment. That’s unbelievable.


  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:46 pm

    Yup. It’s not like Gillespie is performing good enough in the rural areas.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 7:49 pm

      He’s done very well in the “West Virginia-ish” part of the state and that’s about it. Stinkers elsewhere.

      • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:53 pm

        Has he though? Smyth County is completely in, and Trump won it 76-21, and Gillespie won it 71-26. It’s still a blowout, but that’s a 10 point shift. That’s huge.

        • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:02 pm

          And 12 point shift to GOP compared to 2013 (64-30).

        • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 8:04 pm

          Northam made some effort to win over rural voters (unlike Hillary Clinton), and Northam (except for his zealotry for the pro-abortion position) has been a pretty moderate D (and voted for GWB twice and almost switched to the Rs in 2009). So I’m not surprised that he did a little better in western VA.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:47 pm

    Upshot up to Northam +6.5 and no Gillespie winning window.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 7:47 pm

    I expected the Democrat sweep of Virginia, but margins are going to be ugly. Even Fairfax will win comfortably.

    • AD123 November 7, 2017 at 7:51 pm

      The out party wins in non-presidential years. Not sure why people thought the relatively unpopular Trump admin would be when this ends.

      • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        Well the highly unpopular Nixon administration (1973) was the last time when the out party lost. Although technically the Ds ran no candidate but supported a left-wing “independent” Henry Howell .


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:48 pm

    I think the lesson to be learned from this is that the #resistance idiots are so infuriated over Trump they’re gonna turn out in extreme numbers in every election. Which means the Dems will almost certainly take the house in 2018. Not repealing Obamacare was the stupidest thing ever. It’s here for the rest of our lifetimes now


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 7:50 pm

      Obamacare repeal isn’t dead yet, but that is for another policy site.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 7:50 pm

      We need to do everything we have with the majority we have now because it will be gone a year from now.


      Republican, TX-22.

      • cer November 7, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        Don’t be so defeatist.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:01 pm

      It’s not just the resistance types at this point. The lesson is Trump is an unpopular President and downballot Rs are going to struggle in 2018 unless he miraculously turns his approval around.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 7:49 pm

    So if I’m keeping up correctly, the following HoD seats are currently flipping R to D: 02, 10, 12, 13, 21, 27, 31, 32, 50, 51, 62, 67, 72, 85. So that looks like D+13 at the moment.


    Dem NC-11

    • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 7:52 pm

      Dems would need to take 17 to have a majority in the HoD I think, so big gain but GOP still controls HOD if you are right.

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:00 pm

        Losing 13 seats was basically seen as an unthinkable catastrophe by the GOP going into tonight. If they lose the House the GOP might as well quit politics.


  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    With 29% of the vote in, still very close in Lt. Gov and AG races although Northam leads. Suspect this will change though when more NO. VA. votes come in.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    Huh Gillespie actually overperformed Trump and Romney in a precinct in Accomack County, Northam’s home county. I’m very surprised, considering that Gillespie is doing worse than Trump in NoVA which I thought was impossible


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    Dave Weigel‏Verified account
    @daveweigel
    Following Following @daveweigel
    More
    DEM GAIN Mayor of Manchester, NH: Joyce Craig has defeated Mayor Gatsas. First Dem Mayor since 2005.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    When you double down on a coalition, it tends to solidify everyone outside of that coalition in opposition. And realistically, this is a trend that has been going on for a couple decades now, as WWC move towards the Republicans, the suburbanites move towards the Democrats. It isn’t a zero sum game in every cycle, but it’s pretty close to a zero sum game in terms of trends.

    One thing I find interesting is that SW Virginia isn’t going as strongly for Gillespie as for Trump, which does not bode well if that’s a coalition that can only be held together by Trump and can’t be replicated. We’ll see how it goes in 2018! Gotta love politics.

    • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 7:57 pm

      SW is Gillespie’s only good region.

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 7:57 pm

      Northam made some effort to win over rural voters (unlike Hillary Clinton), and Northam (except for his zealotry for the pro-abortion position) has been a pretty moderate D (and voted for GWB twice and almost switched to the Rs in 2009). So I’m not surprised that he did a little better in western VA.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Northam +7.8 in the updated NYT projection. Keeps on growing.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      +8.3…


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Disastrous all around. The HoD races are the worst part of this.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 7:55 pm

      With latest update I count D+14 in the HoD.


      Dem NC-11

  • district1 November 7, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Shoutout to Quinnipiac?


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 7:54 pm

      Nate Cohn talking about Quinnipiac mode made me lol


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      No they just got lucky.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 7:53 pm

    Kriseman won by 3.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    Kriseman with a strong lead in Florida.


  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 7:59 pm

    York County – red Hampton Roads suburbs

    44% Northam 38% Clinton

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    Northam is stronger than we ALL thought. Wonder if he wants to run for Senate some day lol.

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:03 pm

      I hate to tell you, but you could have stuck RG3 in as Democratic ominee and the Dems would have mopped up the map. Northam just caught the national winds just right.


      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:05 pm

        Why do you hate to tell me? Northam does have some appeal. Sure there was a perfect storm but he’s got a “good enough” resume and geographic background and works his own brand of politics.

        • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:10 pm

          Because it means that the GOP is doo.ed, not that Northam is a genius. Look at the HoD results. Those aren’t coattails. If anything, the HoD candidates carried the top of the ticket. It’s unimaginably toxic for the GOP right now.


    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 8:07 pm

      I disagree, he’s a weak and lazy candidate, although he has a strong profile on paper (as a moderate Southern doctor). But sometimes the wave is strong enough to carry candidates like Northam. Gillespie would have won this race in 2013 or 2015.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    I wonder where we would be with Perriello as the D nominee?

    Or Stewart as the R nominee?


    Republican, TX-22.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:02 pm

      I recommend no one in this site think about Stewart results. That would make tonight look comforting.

      • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:03 pm

        Well, they might have to see them one year from today anyway.

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:05 pm

      ANY Democrat would’ve won this race against ANY Republican.

      The reason we lost is because there are a lot of people on the left who literally think Trump is a dictator. They literally think Trump is hitler and wants to put minorities into concentration camps. And these people will vote for literally any Democrat there is. And they came out in enormous numbers. That’s why we lost.


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:11 pm

        You should rant about this more. Maybe give them a nickname like “resistance”?

        It’s so fresh seeing the same thing posted 40 times per day with derogatory remarks the entire way.

        • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:12 pm

          Do you think I’m wrong?

          All signs point to what I have posted.

          There are people calling themselves the “resistance”. They mostly are white liberals.

          Areas with a lot of white liberals have insane surges in turnout. They have Gillespie getting more votes than Cuccinelli but Northam with insane numbers.

          How is this anything but white liberal angst?


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • jncca November 7, 2017 at 8:16 pm

            It is exactly that. Very energized D base.

            That’s the elections analysis part. Which is what we do. What does that mean for 2018? For 2020?


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

            • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:24 pm

              What it means is that Comstock is a goner. Completely gone. Reichert’s seat is gone. Kevin Yoder is probably gone. If I had to guess, I’d say Democrats will win seats like KS-2 and OH-01. I think Democrats will win the house.

              I do think we’ll do better than we will nationally in a lot of seats, as I think we could still hold onto Lobiondo’s seat. And I think we can hold onto Ros-Lehtinen’s seat. I think what these results show is that Romney-Clinton voters don’t seem to have abandoned the party, that’s just overshadowed by insane white liberal turnout. That seat has almost no white liberals, so I think the GOP could hold onto it.

              It also means any area with a decent amount of white liberals is going to be competitive. Even in traditionally Republican districts.

              Hell, I could see Utah-2 being decently close in 2018.

              Edit: Did not mean to violate a ban, saw that after I posted


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 8:08 pm

      Double digit win for Perriello. He’s pretty charismatic and exciting on the stump. And scary because he would have been considerably to the left of Northam on everything but abortion.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • Boehnerwasright November 7, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    This is just brutal for republicans. House of delegate races look even worse then the Northam numbers at the moment. What I will look for when all votes are in if Gillespie outperformed his LG and AG companion on the ballot.
    If not could signal that Vogel and Adams profited more from being seen as generic R.

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:01 pm

      My latest count is D+17 in the HoD…


      Dem NC-11

      • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:06 pm

        I don’t see that


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:09 pm

          I see: 02, 10, 12, 13, 21, 26, 27, 31, 32, 42, 50, 51, 62, 67, 72, 73, 100. That adds up to 17.


          Dem NC-11

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:07 pm

        If true, how fast does the RNSC go into battle mode in Alabama?


        • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 8:10 pm

          Not at all. No need to panic, the whites in Alabama are considerably more R than the SW portion portion of Virginia.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

          • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:11 pm

            That’s fair. But Gillespie is a far better GOP candidate in any state than Roy Moore.


        • RRR November 7, 2017 at 8:11 pm

          NRSC


          PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
          More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

        • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:15 pm

          The thing is, voters who are sticking it to GOP in Virginia the hardest are almost a non-existent demographic in Alabama.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    This is why we are going to lose.

    Evergreen Precinct 408 Loudoun County

    2012: Obama 52.2 Romney 46.82

    2013: McAuliffe 48.27 Cucinelli 46.00

    2014: Gillespie 49.61 Warner 47.94

    2016: Clinton 53.99 Trump 40.66

    You don’t think it can get worse than Trump huh?

    Northam 59.36 Gillespie 39.54

    GIllespie got more votes than Cuccinelli here. This is the #resistance being ridiculously energized


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    Comstock is toast.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:07 pm

      Way too early to count her out yet.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:14 pm

        I wouldn’t say toast, but do you think the environment is going to improve between now and next year. We’re doing this bad in spite of a good economy. It’s not like Trump is somehow going to make his long awaited pivot.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

    • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 8:08 pm

      Yeah it’s been pretty clear for a bit that Comstock is this year’s…Chet Edwards?

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:16 pm

        Connie Morella?

        • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

          Connie Morella was gerrymandered out of office….I don’t think that works. Probably would have won the baseline district as it existed in 2000.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:07 pm

    Holy moly.

    My precinct’s results were just reported.

    I’m not going to reveal where I live, but all I’m going to say is, Donald Trump did historically badly in my precinct. He did about 30% worse in terms of margin than Romney did. It looked impossible to do worse than him.

    Ed Gillespie did about 20% worse than Trump did.

    And once again, backing up my hypothesis that this is just these “resistance” idiots turning out in full force: Gillespie got more votes than Cuccinelli in my precinct. Northam got almost twice as many as McAuliffe did.

    Northam got more votes in my precinct than Hillary Clinton did in a Presidential year running against Donald Trump. He got about 20% more votes in my precinct than Obama did in 2012.

    The #resistance is insane


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 8:11 pm

      If turnout is that large, that isn’t just #resistance. That is your entire D party and a good number of independents.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:14 pm

        I’m not sure about the independents. Because as I pointed out: Gillespie is outperforming Cuccinelli.

        The fact is the Democrat turnout in white liberal areas is absolutely insane


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:17 pm

          Perhaps the Donald should tank the economy so Republicans won’t be so busy working that they can’t vote.


          Dem NC-11

          • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

            Fair enough 🙂

            You’ve won this round. I was half trolling the Democrats on here when I said that. Congrats on your victory


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:22 pm

              Honey Bee your conduct on here tonight is way out of line. I have warned you 3 times in the last week. You are banned for tonight,


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    Based on the legislative results tonight, Democrats are almost assured to have the trifecta in Virginia after 2019. Need 1 seat in the Senate, remains to be seen in the House.

  • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 8:10 pm

    Comstock gone
    Open LoBiondo gone
    Open McSally gone.

    GOP House majority = burnt toast

    Say hello to Speaker Pelosi and your new #Resistance overlords. Coming to your neighborhood in January 2019.

    • RRR November 7, 2017 at 8:12 pm

      But victories can’t be Pyrrhic!


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 8:16 pm

        The fact is, Trump doesn’t seem to have really lost us any voters. Like I said, Gillespie is outperforming Cuccinelli in most areas.

        What Trump has done is turn up Democratic motivation to extreme levels. It’s horrible for us right now, but luckily, it is temporary


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • jncca November 7, 2017 at 8:17 pm

          Temporary = until Trump is no longer president. The D enthusiasm will remain while he is still in office.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

          Trump only won 46ish % of the vote against the worst candidate in modern presidential history. Heaven forbid if the Dems don’t jump off the deep end and actually nominate someone competent and scandal-free in 2020


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

          By temporary you mean, “until President Sanders takes office in January 2021.”


          • TexasR November 7, 2017 at 8:20 pm

            *President Harris


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

            • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:21 pm

              *shudders*


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

              Wow really? I can’t see the Dems having the guts to go there.


              • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:24 pm

                The Republicans nominated Trump. Harris is at least a professional politician.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

              • TexasR November 7, 2017 at 8:25 pm

                California is trying to move their primary up, and she’s already lining up superdelegate support. I honestly think she’s the Dem frontrunner.


                Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                Be careful what you wish for

              • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:26 pm

                Harris is far more likely than Sanders. Sanders already looks like the Crypt Keeper. Harris checks more boxes, isn’t ancient, and is far more likely to be the nominee than Sanders.

                That being said, I personally believe it’ll be Booker.

                • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 8:32 pm

                  Booker and Harris would split the AA vote, opening the path for President Gillibrand, no?

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:16 pm

      Wonder if this is a wake up call for the Trumpists or if they’ll keep on thinking the Presidential election was a vote for his platform rather than a vote against how horrible Hillary was.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 8:17 pm

        It’s almost as if Trump and his skilled campaign had something to do with exposing how wretched Hillary Clinton was, as opposed to Romney just lying down and getting his ass kicked.

        • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:20 pm

          Obama was a much better candidate than Hillary and an incumbent. And its not like I think Romney was the savior for all our problems like some of the establishment types think.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • TexasR November 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

        Well, I think you got your answer.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 8:13 pm

    Democrats up in 18 Republican-held House of Delegates seats. Would be enough to flip the chamber.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:14 pm

    Ridiculously too early to write off the House.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:17 pm

      The Dems were doing this after MA Sen 2010. Even if it might be too early, it’s better to acknowledge the possibility and run scared than pretend otherwise.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        Yes if we do as bad among college educated whites nationally the House is gone.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    Anyone predicted Adams to do better than Gillespie AND Vogel? That would be some real prediction sorcery…

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 8:21 pm

      I had Northam winning by 7, Fairfax by 4, and Herring by 3. Herring is the most controversial statewide Democrat in the state, and he also barely won in a good Democratic year in 2013.


      • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:24 pm

        Vogel might still pull ahead… Fairfax was fairly controversial too, and not an incumbent.

        • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:27 pm

          With as much nova left as is? No way. It’ll be the tightest but Fairfax has this.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 8:28 pm

            Not ahead of Fairfax but ahead of Adams.

        • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 8:28 pm

          There are 50,000+ votes left in Fairfax. I’m not sure there are enough votes elsewhere to make that up.

    • Boehnerwasright November 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

      Let’s wait until all votes are in but if it holds this is really surprising. Herrings was an incumbent and Adams got something like 80% of his money from the national republicans.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    Ohio drug measure is going up in smoke.

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio-ballot-measure-cap-drug-costs


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 8:21 pm

      Only good news so far in an absolutely horrific day.

  • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    These results are so bad, I would not be surprised to see the markets take a real hit tomorrow.

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

    The GOP needs to get some big things done now and sell it to the American people.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • jncca November 7, 2017 at 8:20 pm

    Since I remember what it’s like to have a bad election night, here’s one good piece of news for you guys.

    Gillespie won swingy Caroline County and Nelson County. That bodes well for the GOP for rural Black turnout being low in Alabama as well as FL-Gov/Sen and GA-Gov.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • fzw November 8, 2017 at 5:17 am

      Meh. With provisionals and other votes trickling in over the next week, the vote margin is small enough for Northam to win Nelson, Caroline, and Chesterfield. But obviously not by much.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    Republicans are losing a HoD seat in the Shenandoah Valley….

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    Northam now +8.7 on the NYT prediction.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    How many House Republicans take a second look at retiring after tonight?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:30 pm

      Not as many as you might think. Really some of you guys are getting tad bit carried away with this….


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:31 pm

        Hey I’m the first to admit Ds are no lock to win the house. But I do think nights like tonight might jar loose an extra retirement or two.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    The one Republican who’s actually doing good tonight, relatively speaking, is Rob Bloxom HD-100. Up 8 in a district Obama and Clinton won big. Not sure if Norfolk is in yet though.

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 8:28 pm

      Only 1 of 9 Norfolk precincts have reported. This is almost all Accomack Co for that HoD seat.


      Dem NC-11

    • roguemapper November 7, 2017 at 10:53 pm

      Bloxom pulled it out but I checked the numbers and it looks as if HRC carried HD-100 by just 49-47 so it doesn’t seem as surprising after all. Obama did notably better in 2012 with 55-44. In any case, the D candidate for HD-100 seems to have relatively weak across the whole district. No idea why.


      Dem NC-11

  • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    Worst election night for the GOP since 2008. These numbers should be terrifying for the GOP. Yet I can’t see a strategy for improvement.

    • jncca November 7, 2017 at 8:29 pm

      You just gotta take the lumps that come with having Trump in the WH and him not being that popular. Trump tacking to the center in a serious way (Clinton 95-style) is the only way to not have a wave in 2018 IMO, unless Dems run on impeaching him.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 8:33 pm

        Well, 2008 was a foreseen thing, right? This is just 1 state, but 2006 is obviously the better comparison in my view.

        This time around the House GOP is at least aware that they can lose, which really wasn’t the attitude I remember even as late of Summer 2006.

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 8:30 pm

      Inventing a time machine, going back to 2015, and forcing Jeb! and Kasich out of the race.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • TexasR November 7, 2017 at 8:32 pm

        I mean, if we’re going to invent a time machine, what you really want to do is go back to 1955 and tell William F Buckley, Jr not to befriend Frank Meyer.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

        • kewgardens November 7, 2017 at 8:47 pm

          No, you want to go back to 1912 and find some way to stop Wilson and the Dems

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 8:31 pm

      Kewgardens, of course you can’t because you generally predict some sort of gloom and doom for the GOP.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Son_of_the_South November 7, 2017 at 8:31 pm

      Please move the discussion to the new thread.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 8:31 pm

      It is becoming clearer by the day that running essentially as a working class white party is going to lose a substantial number of college educated whites who could care less about economic issues because things are going good for them. I refuse to register as a Republican except right before primaries because I am merely closer to the Republicans than the Democrats.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

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