Political Roundup for November 7th, 2017

Welcome to Election Day 2017! Our results liveblog will be up tonight as soon as polls close. Be sure to checkout our previews of today’s Marquee Races, Mayoral Races and Legislative races. Finally, to all our Republican friends remember to go out an vote today and to our Democrat friends today might be a great day to stay home and binge watch House of Cards before more Kevin Spacey revelations makes it too icky to watch.

President:

Castro: Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro told a crowd at a Latino voters summit in San Antonio that he “might” run for President in 2020.

Governor:

NY-Gov: Former state Sen. Terry Gipson (D) is moving forward with a primary challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). Gipson has filed to create a campaign committee with will allow him to start raising funds for a potential run. Gipson served one term in the state senate representing the Poughkeepsie area from 2013 to 2014. Gipson lost a comeback bid in 2016 as well.

TX-Gov: After seeming to leave the door open to another potential run for Governor in 2018 Wendy Davis told a reporter that it would take “a brainwash” to get her to run again next year. Luckily for Texas Democrats we can’t imagine there is much there to wash. Mr. Leather International in 2009 (who also goes by the name Jeffrey Payne) is so far the Democrat front runner for Governor, although former Texas Governor Mark White’s son Andrew might give it a go for the Democrats.

Senate:

IN-Sen: State Rep. Mike Braun (R) is going on the air with $324,000 worth of TV and radio ads. Braun is thought to be the third wheel in the GOP primary between Rep. Luke Messer and Rep. Todd Rokita but Braun is independently wealthy and is spending money early.

House:

HI-1: State Rep. Kaniela Ing (D) has become the first Democrat to officially announce a run for this open D+17 seat. Ing is carpetbagging into this seat as his home district on Maui is in HI-2 (although that is less of an issue in Hawaii than in it can be in other places). Ing hails from the progressive side of the Democrat Party and endorsed Bernie Sanders for President in 2016.  State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D), the runner up in the 2014 primary, has also set up a campaign account to run, state Representative Beth Fukumoto (R, D) has formed an exploratory committee and Attorney General Doug Chin (D) is also thought to be interested in running. On the Republican side the bench of possible electable GOP candidates probably begins and ends with former Rep. Charles Djou.

TN-6: Former state Rep. Joe Carr (R) was considering another bid for this now open R+24 seat but has opted to run for the District 14 state Senate of Sen. Jim Tracy (R) instead. Tracy was just appointed by President Trump to a job in the U.S. Department of Agriculture and a special election will be held to fill the state senate seat. Carr lost a primary challenge to Rep. Diane Black who is running for Governor next year.

State, Local & Other:

VA-House of Delegates: David Wasserman makes a very good argument that today’s House of Delegate elections in Virginia could be the best harbinger of of the 2018 mid-term elections.

Burlington, VT-Mayor: Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I) stepdaughter Carina Driscoll is considering following in her father’s footsteps and running for Mayor of Burlington. The election is set for March 2018.

NY-Constitutional Convention: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has joined pretty much all the powers that be in New York State with a vested interest in keeping the corrupt status quo in coming out against a constitutional convention. Every 20 years New Yorkers vote on weather to hold a constitutional convention in order to amend the state constitution. Cuomo has announced he will be voting “No”, while RRH’s Izengabe has announced he will be voting “Yes”.

WATN: Three time RRHelections Turkey of the Year award winner Anthony Weiner has reported to federal prison to begin serving his 21 month sentence for sending sexually explicit messages to a 15 year old child. We would make a joke but Anthony Weiner stopped being funny when he started to prey on children.

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293 Comments

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 6:24 am

    Greeting so from Bangkok. I’m 12 hours ahead of the East coast so I’ll know the results before all of you (I think that’s how time zones work 🙂

    Think Northam wins by 4, Herring by 4.5 and LG we don’t know for a bit. Dems take +7 in HoD.

    I also predict that due to the relatively last minute nature of this work trip I won’t be voting in PA/Philly elections this year breaking a pretty long streak. Sad

  • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 6:49 am

    Voted at 6:00 this morning. Straight ticket Republican. Then again, of the 10 positions up for election, a Democrat was only contesting 1 of them. Voted Yes on all 3 ballot questions. I was the youngest person there by probably 30 years and I’m 40.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:16 am

      What part of the world do you live, if you don’t mind revealing such things?

      • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 7:21 am

        Sorry, used to be in my sig. I’m in the Tioga County, NY portion of NY-22. Considered an off year election for us, so I have no information relevant to the races people are watching today.


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • GerGOP November 7, 2017 at 7:01 am

    Good heavens, izengabe. That Davis zinger Oo Nearly spilled my drink.

  • RRR November 7, 2017 at 7:08 am

    I didn’t register to vote in Philadelphia in time to cast a ballot today. Oh well.

    Izengabe: I spend half of my weekends in Nassau County, and I’ve seen more Vote No stickers on people’s cars than you see for most candidate campaigns—and maybe even for some presidential campaigns. Honestly, it’s impressive how convincingly the powers that be have sold the convention to suburban Republican voters as a gateway to a tax hike.


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 7:18 am

      When did you move to the city? I believe you lived in the ‘burbs previously, no?

      • RRR November 7, 2017 at 7:23 am

        Yeah, I went to college in suburban Philly. I then moved to Brooklyn and worked in Manhattan before taking a job I couldn’t refuse in Philadelphia a few months ago.


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 7:27 am

      Those stickers are being handed out by the teachers unions. The unions are telling teachers that if a Convention happens, their pensions will be taken away.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • RRR November 7, 2017 at 7:35 am

        That’s far from the only group passing those out and not the only justification I’ve seen on the stickers, but you’re correct that it’s a source.


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 8:30 am

          All state unions of course. They know that any constitution convention is going after state worker pensions so I’m sure even in heavily GOP areas if schools, prisons or other state govt is the main employer you’ll still see No win by a large margin.

          I’m sure NYSUT, AFSCME and a host of others have a very coordinated effort to defeat it.

    • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 7:48 am

      Lots of municipal workers live in Nassau. Any constitutional change could be a threat to them and the local political machine. Sadly there’s just no constituency in New York advocating for real change


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • RRR November 7, 2017 at 7:49 am

        Of course! But it’s not just them. The campaign has co-opted a vast swath of suburban society.


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 8:05 am

    I voted at 6:20 am and there were a dozen young people voting (this district is overwhelmingly young).

    It seems to me that our city council race (NYC-CD-44) will have presidential level turnout in the Borough Park part. There has never been such a nasty campaign here.

    I voted for Hikind, because Greenfield needs to be punished for the last-minute parachuting of his puppet onto the line, after the filing deadline.

    Otherwise, straight Republican. I wasn’t in the mood of writing in RRH users for judicial races this time.

    I voted No, Yes, Yes on the 3 ballot questions. The convention will lose and it’s a waste of time either way.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 9:17 am

      Wait, Dov Hikind is running for city council? Or someone else with the same surname?

      • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 9:18 am

        His son.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • shamlet November 7, 2017 at 9:47 am

          It was in the previews!


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 10:13 am

      Yes on 2 is kind of a no brainer! Who in their right mind would vote to let crooked politicians to keep their pension? It will be fun to see how many people voted No on this.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 8:29 am

    As a conservative, why do you want a convention? When I think convention, I think Bernie Bros throwing chairs at people.

    • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 9:17 am

      The current system is broken. It is worth the gamble to see what better reforms we can come up with. If they reforms are bad we have the option of voting against them at a later date. My attitude is I want to see if we can do better because what we got now is horrible.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 10:31 am

        Considering the delegates would be nominated based on the State Senate seats, the worst that could occur is enshrining the Prize Patrol as a constitutional right for legislators.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 8:36 am

    Fukumoto would be my choice int he Hawaii race, although Chin would be good too. Hopefully a Case or Gabbard type doesn’t wiggle in between them.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • OGGoldy November 7, 2017 at 9:24 am

    I voted this morning on my way to work. Only 2 city council races on my ballot in Golden Valley MN. I voted for my neighbor, an incumbent and left the other one blank cuz I have no idea who they are. Unsurprisingly I was the only one there other than the 2 poll workers.

  • andyroo312 November 7, 2017 at 9:47 am

    Gipson could totally earn a quarter of the primary vote vs. Cuomo, at least.


    MA-7

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 9:58 am

      So could anyone who makes the Dem ballot. What does it matter really if you can’t win or even come close and have no political future? Literal definition of vanity campaign.

  • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 9:57 am

    No election for me since I live outside of the two cities in my county, nor are there any millages in my area.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • GoBigRedState November 7, 2017 at 12:45 pm

      Nothing at all here either. I’m not aware of any elections here in Nebraska-most local elections are in the spring.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

    • Jon November 7, 2017 at 6:35 pm

      No election for me since I live in St Louis County and not St Louis City. I think the biggest issue in St Louis City is Prop P; similar to the one that passed in St Louis County a few months ago except somewhat more reasonable.
      (The version for the county had only 50% of it going to the county sheriffs department with the remainder going to the various too many municipal police departments)

      Local elections for me is first Tuesday in April (perhaps followed by the first Monday in years in which April 1 is a Tuesday)
      My long time incumbent mayor is being challenged by the MO State Representative that represents most of this city (but not my section)


      45, M, MO-02

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Looks like the North and South parts of VA are about to get hit with a pretty good dose of rain.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/927910600310771713


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 10:49 am

      I’m hearing turnout is high in both red and blue areas, with some precincts already at a third to half of the 2013 totals already. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of that, though. People may just be trying to beat the rain or vote before work. We’ll have to see how mid-day voting goes. So far, though, it does look like the rain isn’t depressing turnout and that a 50+% total turnout is very possible. Mid-fifties would be amazing for the Dems.


  • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 10:05 am

    Voter 140ish here in Bucks County.

    I voted for all Republicans, against the retention of the Dem judge, and no on the property tax question.

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 10:24 am

      How is the turnout there!?


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 11:32 am

        My thinking was that 140ish was rather high for an offyear election like this. Not much line, but people who did vote took their time. Probably because of the odd wording on the property tax question.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 10:52 am

    I repeat myself every election day.

    Election day anecdotes are not worth the pixels.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 11:02 am

      Sometimes yeah, sometimes no. In 2016 the reports of high white, blue collar turnout in PA and MI were, in fact, worth much, much more than the pixels. The data that campaigns use, though, is not merely antecdotal. They use various precincts as benchmarks to track their progress. It’s why Obama felt fine late on Election Day in 2012 even as Team Romney believed that they had simply won.


    • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 12:08 pm

      Guys, I heard low turnout in Fairfax County!


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • GerGOP November 7, 2017 at 12:14 pm

        Here’s to hope that it will stay that way and Gillespie ekes out a victory here. That would be amazing beyond belief.

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 12:56 pm

        It’s actually pretty high.


        • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 1:21 pm

          It’s actually through the roof according to Vaughn HIllyard:

          “Clinton won Fairfax County (northern VA) by 35% in 2016. Today, as of this last hour, approx 45,000 absentee ballots have been turned in by voters in the county. In the 2013 VAGOV race? 25,802 absentee ballots in county. (Per Fairfax County Board of Elections)”

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 1:27 pm

            Total was around 150k as of 10 am including early votes. Total in 2013 was 311k voters. I’m not sure it’s really high (compared to 2013) until we get another update from FairfaxVotes this afternoon.

          • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 1:31 pm

            Yeah, we’re screwed. With absentee ballots counting for twice the votes of normal ballots, those fired up liberals have screwed us. Oh wait… they don’t. The difference is just that some snowflake Fairfax County Liberals who think that Trump has turned America into a dictatorship and Gillespie is literally hitler figured that they couldn’t even wait till election day to “stand up to Trump” and be a proud member of the “resistance” so they voted early. Just cannibalization


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Republican Michigander November 7, 2017 at 12:24 pm

      I remember thinking that MI was going for Clinton after seeing the turnout in East Lansing (where I was a poll challenger roving attorney)

      Little did I know.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 11:03 am

    Yes!

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/927928082106867713


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 11:24 am

    We have TWO exit polls to look forward to tonight the standard one and FOX News is conducting their own exit poll.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      I wonder how many surveys will be conducted in rural areas.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 12:57 pm

    According to Prof McDonald’s Elect Project site turnout at Noon was good in the Dem leaning city of Alexandria. In 2013 at Noon turnout was 23,192 (27.88% of voters) but as of Noon today it was 32,539 (35.75% of voters). That is an 8% difference. There are about 90,000 registered voters in Alexandria. Of course it remains to be seen if the turnout will stay at this high rate the rest of the day.

    http://www.electproject.org/

    • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 1:01 pm

      The #1 Jon Ossoff cheerleader?


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 1:08 pm

      Just looked at Weather Channel map. Rain now mainly in Northern Va, seems heaviest around DC suburbs. Will it depress turnout for the rest of the day? Polls close in about 6 hours.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      That Twitter feed has a lot of info but is all over the place. Arlington looks to be up but Prince William at 19% seems low (I can’t find 2013 numbers so just gut feel). Fairfax it seems too early to tell. And so on and so on.

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 1:37 pm

        And Charlottesville looks like it’ll have “better than 2013 turnout” or whatever we’re calling it. Of course that one was probably the most expected…though in shear votes isn’t much of anything.

      • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 1:56 pm

        Yeah that’s why I only posted the Alexandria numbers. The other places mentioned in the twitter feed by and large didn’t compare to 2013 for turnout at the same point in time.

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 1:58 pm

          Yeah I understand. But boy does Prince William seem low. Must be a lot of lunchtime or after work voters.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 12:58 pm

    https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/927887548344688642?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

    God, Evan McMullin really makes my blood boil.

    This guy is simply using his status as a former “Republican” to get media attention because we all know there’s nothing the media loves more than “Republicans” who bash other Republicans.

    I’m usually all for big tents, but this guy can go pound sand. I want him nowhere near my party. If you spend 100x the amount of time criticizing Republicans that you do criticizing Democrats (has this guy ever even criticized a Democrat?) and use vicious Democrat character assassinating talking points (Racism! Russia!!!) then I do not want you in my party. This guy should be expelled from the party just so the media can’t call him a “Republican”

    With that said, voted Gillespie, Adams and Vogel today


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      Oh course. Trump did the one, completely unforgivable sin in McMullin’s. Trump proved him to be irrelevant.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • prsteve11 November 7, 2017 at 1:09 pm

      Yeah, McMullin is particularly vicious in his commentary. He seems quite bitter. Maybe it still galls him that he couldn’t win Utah (although it wouldn’t have changed the outcome of election, of course).

      Aside from that: Votela iGOP!


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 1:20 pm

        Some of his criticism of Trump is valid, but virtually calling Gillespie a race baiter seems to be going a little far. Gillespie condemned the white supremicists at Charlottesville and has not asked Trump to campaign for him. Is opposing sanctuary cities a terrible racist thing now? Even Northam seems to be kind of against them now (well sort of). That’s why I have continued to call him McMuffin.

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 1:19 pm

      It’s always funny to hear this criticism because Donald Trump criticized his fellow Republicans harder than anyone in the history of the GOP.

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 1:23 pm

        The difference, in fact, was that Donald Trump was criticizing other Republicans to win a primary.

        You didn’t see Donald Trump going on twitter from 2012-2015 about how Mitt Romney was a race baiter and John Boehner was a Russian stooge or some garbage like that. And when the primary was over, Trump focused his attacks on Hillary and the Democrats.

        Evan McMullin is literally out there disavowing his beliefs so he can be seen as “cool” and “hip” to Twitter Liberals


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • LtNOWIS November 7, 2017 at 1:28 pm

      I don’t like McMullin’s tweet, but McMullin is not claiming to be a Republican and hasn’t for over a year now. He’s not in the tent, regardless of how big or small it is. So it’s a case of a Republican bashing other Republicans, it’s a case of some unaffiliated guy on Twitter bashing other Republicans.


      28, VA-11

      • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 1:39 pm

        Yeah, he’s the modern equivalent of the guys in 1980 talking about how horrible it is to marry Conservatism to this “Religious right” nonsense that was surely going to prove to be the death of the Republican party. He’ll be giving keynote speeches at the DNC by 2024 at the latest.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • prsteve11 November 7, 2017 at 1:10 pm

    Apparently, McSally is in for the Senate: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/359137-mcsally-tells-gop-colleagues-she-will-run-for-senate-report


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 1:16 pm

    AZ-Sen Rep. McSally tells House colleagues she is running for Senate.
    https://t.co/uL7sx4ZHwq

    Not good. Dems will most likely pick up her House seat. McSally votes WAY to the left of Jeff Flake & John McCain. Hopefully Matt Salmon runs.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 1:19 pm

      Perhaps she votes to the left of them on bills that the Club for Growth and Heritage action have picked out that are NEVER going to pass anyway (have any of their “key votes” actually passed ever?), but on things that actually matter like Obamacare repeal or immigration or Cuba, or not going out in the media with a bullhorn denouncing our own President, McSally won’t stab us in the back


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • Conservative First November 7, 2017 at 1:25 pm

        McSally has 29% (D) on Numbers USA immigration reduction grades, as opposed to John McCain’s 26% (D).
        https://www.numbersusa.com/content/my/tools/grades/list/0/CAREER/AZ/A/Grade/Active#tabset-3

        • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 1:28 pm

          Don’t really care about what those hardcore nativist immigration restrictionists want.

          They’re similar to Club For Growth and Heritage Action except with Immigration. The difference is McCain and Flake both went out there and supported Chuck Schumer’s Blanket Amnesty bill. Which I do not support


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 1:43 pm

            What about ACU? They are kind of the gold standard. McSally has a lifetime 67 score. John McCain has a lifetime 81.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 1:46 pm

              Stabenow also had a moderate voting record in the house, but has shifted far to the left in the senate.

    • TheWizardOf144 November 7, 2017 at 1:35 pm

      Ward will defeat McSally in the primary. No doubt.

      • andyroo312 November 7, 2017 at 2:10 pm

        Hmm color me skeptical, at least if it’s a one-on-one. I don’t think Ward can hit 50 percent in the primary, needs an additional mainstream R in there.


        MA-7

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 2:33 pm

      I would prefer Jeff Flake, but can live with McSally or Salmon. Both Ward (Bannonite) and Sinema (atheist) are blatantly unacceptable to me, but if I were in Arizona, I probably would vote for Sinema over Ward as the lesser evil.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 1:17 pm

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sqPqFtJl2gxjAUR076E2M8-jpgOOct07FKx08zuP4bM/edit#gid=0

    Dave Wasserman has a model of what he believes Northam/Gillespie need to get in each locality to win.

    My opinion is this is very flawed. If Northam wins Fairfax by 19, Gillespie should win easily. I know that Gillespie lost Fairfax by only 17.5 in 2014 and barely lost, but that was against Mark Warner, who had significant support in Coal territory where Northam should get demolished. Trump lost Fairfax by 36 and only lost the state by 5.

    Similarly, we’re gonna need to win Chesterfield County by more than 6% to win. Simply using an even swing from Trump says we need to win it by 8-9%. Gillespie ’14 won it by almost 9. Obenshain ’13 won it by 10. Romney won it by 8. If we win Chesterfield by 6%, that’s an easy Northam victory


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 2:14 pm

      I’m not sure what the benchmarks are going to be in this race. The 2016 Presidential race skewed things pretty heavily from what we saw before. Gillespie is a pre-Trump R who used some establishment messages and some Trumpish messages. Northam’s campaign was really a mess, but he retains a lot of his moderate image (yes outside of abortion, he was pretty moderate for a D) in the southeast, but he took some leftist positions to make the base happy. Northam also tried to campaign in the rural areas (unlike Hillary Clinton), but it is unclear whether he made any inroads there due to his stance on the statues.

      My guess is that the benchmarks should be somewhere in between 2016 and pre-2016, with larger numbers in SE Virginia. I agree that Northam needs at least 25% margin out of Fairfax, and at least 6-7% out of Loudoun, 10% out of Prince William. But I think the 6% out of Chesterfield may be right (Northam is stronger there than your average D).


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 1:29 pm

    Voter number 203 at my precinct. Turnout was brisk. Seemed higher than 13 or 15.

    Voted for: Sini, Toulon and Anker in the high profile races.

    I predict the CC will lose by Schumer senate margins if LI is any indication.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 1:57 pm

    Frank LoBiondo retiring. Instant toss up/Tilt R.

    .@HarryHurley: Congressman Frank LoBiondo set to retire after this term. NJ-2 is R+1, so it’ll be competitive #NJ #elections


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • TheWizardOf144 November 7, 2017 at 2:02 pm

      Good riddance

      • fzw November 7, 2017 at 2:03 pm

        I’m sure you’ll like Congressman Van Drew a lot more


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • TheWizardOf144 November 7, 2017 at 2:10 pm

          It’s trading one Democrat for another, only this one won’t be lying about who he is. I’ll be totally indifferent

          • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 5:40 pm

            LoBiondo isn’t a white nationalist, therefore he’s a Democrat!!!


            26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 5:43 pm

              Well he did vote for the biggest tax increase in the history of America


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 2:09 pm

      Big deal.


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 2:53 pm

      No FP love?
      Van Drew would (will?) be an interesting Congressional candidate and potential Congressman. Will he still be hard against Sanctuary cities?

      If Chris Brown wins today can he take a free shot already or too soon? Dennis Levinson (Atlantic County Exec) would probably be a solid recruit. Wow, I’ve never been the Great Mentioner before.

      • shamlet November 7, 2017 at 3:18 pm

        Bad timing… FP’d now.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 1:59 pm

    For what it’s worth, Mr. Beer Crusher (the dude who tweeted out “shock exit polls” showing Trump up in MI, PA, and FL on E-day) has now put out some data showing Gillespie in the lead.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/927951887369981959


    Republican, TX-22.

    • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 2:03 pm

      Were any of them real? How does he have nothing for Hyra? Sounds like garbage.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:05 pm

      Gotta leave at least 1% for Libertarian/Other. Every fake pollster knows that 🙂

  • TheWizardOf144 November 7, 2017 at 2:02 pm

    Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton turnout very slow.

    My precinct in the suburbs was fairly robust for an off year.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 2:53 pm

      I was 193 at 110pm. That is slightly below pace to get the normal between 310-340 for my ward.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • RogueBeaver November 7, 2017 at 2:11 pm

    NJ-2: LoBiondo retiring. https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/927974471440502785


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:20 pm

      If the GOP can find a strong candidate, they can hold that seat.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:21 pm

        Shh or Chris Christie will hear you.

        • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:26 pm

          OH GOD NO! lol


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:29 pm

            Something we can all agree on!

            • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:32 pm

              I don’t consider Christie a strong potential candidate for anything right now.


              Conservative first, Republican second!

              • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:39 pm

                Vs Bob Corker for US Dog Catcher?

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:20 pm

    Whoa Fairfax county just announced 30.6% excluding absentee. This is out of 680k so 200k+ for today and 45k absentee so 250k total. 2013was 311k total.

    If these numbers are right Fairfax hits 2013 turnout.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/927978309077667840

  • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:25 pm

    VA Gov: City of Petersburg reports turnout of 20%

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:28 pm

      Most Dem city in VA, 79% AA

      • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:30 pm

        20% turnout doesn’t sound too good. 🙂


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:34 pm

          But we dont’ know what the 2013 baseline is.

          • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:37 pm

            I bet it was higher than that.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:58 pm

              I think it was 8,300 votes in 2013. 20% puts it at 3,500-4,500 notes.

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:37 pm

          Average 10-15k votes in POTUS years; I doubt this is a big mover.

          2013 was 8k votes for what it’s worth. 20% in 2017 is probably around 4K votes so it’s at half (or slightly more) of 2013

          • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:41 pm

            It’s not about Petersburg itself, it’s about a bellwether for the black vote


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 2:50 pm

            And the polls closed at 2pm in 2013, rite?

    • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 2:35 pm

      It’s easy to pay attention to angry white women areas but if we win it’s probably because of figures like this.

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:38 pm

        Paying attention to a city that routinely provides less than 10k total votes in Guv elections is more instructive than NoVa?

        • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:40 pm

          30-40% of VA Democrats are black, so low black turnout would be very important, yes.

          There’s only so many angry white “resistance” feminists out there


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:42 pm

            Lol it’s one locale, small, and it’s not underperforming 2013 by any noticeable margin.

        • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:43 pm

          I think with an election that is supposedly really close, everything is worth looking at.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • krazen1211 November 7, 2017 at 2:44 pm

          People are cherry picking precincts in this thread. A city is some 100x larger?

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:46 pm

            But this specific city is 30k people and like 20k registered voters and had 8k voters in 2013.

            • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:49 pm

              Hey man, just thought I’d share the info as I got it. No biggie if you don’t think it’s useful info.

              • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:56 pm

                No I was referring to my own post.

  • PeterM November 7, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    Just voted in a steady cold rain; was number 925, (in 2013 1396 people voted and in 2016 2808). This precinct was 80% for Clinton last year and 78% for McAuliffe in 2013. I voted for Gillespie, Vogel, and Adams. I was hopeful, but now…


    Goldwater/Reagan Conservative, no longer a Republican

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 2:29 pm

      Well how do you feel now!?


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • PeterM November 7, 2017 at 2:55 pm

        I’ve always been afraid that the rage, (and that’s a mild word for it), against Trump would motivate the other side, but I’m worried that we’re going to get swamped by numbers that the rest of the state won’t be able to make up. (BTW I’m in Alexandria and if the Federal workers here are any indication, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William could be equally bad).


        Goldwater/Reagan Conservative, no longer a Republican

        • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:57 pm

          Yeah unfortunately there’s a lot of idiot snowflakes on the other side, and Trump seems to have triggered them like no other. It’s possible they’ll win this one for the Dems. Hopefully by next year, their parents have managed to help them grow up and stop acting like a child, but from what I’ve seen from these people, I doubt it. They are literal adult children


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • HS November 7, 2017 at 5:02 pm

            I don’t think so. The Dems were the same way when George W. Bush was there during the last half of his terms. Their leadership plans to keep them hyped up always now, it seems clear to me.

            Trump has many flaws, but I have always felt that the hatred is not because of his flaws, but because it was ginned up because he was running as a Republican. If Kasich had been the candidate, he would be so hated. Don’t forget that on social issues, which Dems often obsess on, Trump is the most liberal Republican ever. Yet, they continue to run with the Handmaids tale foolishness – which was originally meant for Reagan, who really was a social conservative.

  • JPF November 7, 2017 at 2:37 pm

    Heavily D Arlington County reporting heavy turnout. 40 percent turnout at noon (counting returned absentees) compared to 49% total in 2013. And FWIW, there was a line for the first time since I could remember when I voted (I early voted in 2016).

    https://www.arlnow.com/2017/11/07/heavy-turnout-short-lines-reported-at-arlington-polling-stations/


    VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      I gotta say 39-40% sounds high. I wonder if something (an entire precinct) was double-counted.

      • JPF November 7, 2017 at 3:09 pm

        Remember polls close in VA at 7:00, so, with DC traffic, a lot of people have to vote before work.


        VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:16 pm

          In theory yes, but shouldnt it apply to most of NoVa. Arlington is way ahead of Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William.

  • Izengabe November 7, 2017 at 2:47 pm

    I guess I missed this from last week. But Allen West for TX-5?
    http://www.gossipextra.com/2017/11/02/is-allen-west-running-for-congress-texas-80760


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:47 pm

    At noon Henrico County (richmond burbs) had 30% turnout. I’d imagine this is a very swingy non-Trumpy area.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Loudoun turnout is 23%. Seems… mediocre


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 2:55 pm

      Surprisingly they only hit 43% (90k ballots) in 2013. Lower turnout than Fairfax or Arlington seems to be the norm.

  • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:50 pm

    Tazewell County is 22% turnout.

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      Bummer


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      This is Trump Country. If turnout is this low, we could be really screwed.

  • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 2:52 pm

    JFC. It’s not even 3pm. All your reports of 20% turnout are meaningless.

    • fzw November 7, 2017 at 2:53 pm

      yeah i guess if you vote earlier on in the day your vote counts extra harder


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

    • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 2:53 pm

      Ignore it then. You dont’ need to read it if you dont’ want to!

      • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 2:55 pm

        You can share that info but other people who are saying “well turnout was 40% in 2013” are not thinking very hard. Many people vote after work.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:54 pm

    The thing you have to keep in mind is that Republicans tend to work every day, while Democrats are much more likely to either vote absentee or be people living at home with their parents with no jobs.

    Especially the #resistance types. Those people likely have no life outside of politics and are likely to vote earlier in the day


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • fzw November 7, 2017 at 2:56 pm

      You must be such a lovely person to be in the company of


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 2:58 pm

        Just sharing my experiences. #Resistance people tend to live at home with their parents and spend all day on twitter retweeting anti Trump rage. I don’t think I’ve met a single one of them who was a productive member of society


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:01 pm

          Says more about you than them, don’t ya think?

          • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 3:04 pm

            Not really. I have plenty of Republican and Democrat friends who are perfectly normal. #Resistance types don’t tend to have many friends outside of the #Resistance bubble because they alienate everyone with absurd tweets.


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • fzw November 7, 2017 at 3:06 pm

              I think you’re way overestimating the number of people who shit on Trump signs in public (1) and go to anarchist events on college football Saturdays.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:00 pm

      Good god your partisanship is ridiculous. NoVa, the Dem stronghold, has some of the highest incomes and lowest unemployment in the entire freaking country.

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 3:02 pm

        Probably why our country is going down the drain. Our federal government is spending all it’s money on people like them. And this is as someone who lives in NoVa

        It’s not partisanship. Most Democrats are normal people. It’s anti “resistance” who almost led to a Senator getting killed


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • cer November 7, 2017 at 3:04 pm

        Of course there are some very well off Republicans up there as well… 🙂


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:09 pm

          Obviously but not enough to overcome a 100% unemployed Dem base as is being suggested.

          • cer November 7, 2017 at 3:12 pm

            They don’t need to overcome it. They just need to keep it within a margin so they can win statewide.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:15 pm

              I think you’re missing the point that the 100% unemployed Dem base in NoVa does not exist.

              • fzw November 7, 2017 at 3:16 pm

                I think you’re missing the point that 100% of Democratic NOVA voters are rage tweeting and shitting on Trump signs while on the government welfare roll


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

              • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 3:20 pm

                Edit: Posted this before warning. Just edited out my post after I saw the warning


                Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      As someone whose actually ran a poll before, that is absolute horseshit. You have been warned before and will be warned again to stop your non-productive feelings driven nonsense.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 3:46 pm

      You might want to stay away from results tonight, honey.


  • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    City of Lexington VA: 29% turnout at 2pm.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:06 pm

      Tiny city but this is already above 2013. Was a McAuliffe county by a large margin I think.

      • JPF November 7, 2017 at 3:43 pm

        Yeah, this is where Washington & Lee is. Liberal college town, couldn’t pick a better place for an Anti-Trump turnout surge.


        VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:44 pm

          Ah I was wondering why that geographical location, small as it is, would be so D. That explains it.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    Albemarle

    https://twitter.com/craftypanda/status/927984156528775169

    Matches the NoVa surge.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 3:08 pm

      Would like to see some of the GOP counties report turnout.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:13 pm

        York county is at 38.9%

        • cer November 7, 2017 at 3:15 pm

          I will assume that is a good pace for the GOP in that county!?


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:18 pm

            Seems like a 60-40 type place for POTUS. No idea about Guv.

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    Chesapeake is at 30% but that’s close to a 50-50 place so not sure anyone benefits.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:20 pm

      Chesterfield at 32%, Falls Church at 46.5%. Nelson county 39%.

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:23 pm

        Chesterfield the only one if these 3 that really matters of course. The other 2 are less than 15k people.

        • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 3:31 pm

          Every county matters. If only the big counties mattered Dems would win every election. Luckily for business, taxpayers, and unborn babies, thats not true


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:34 pm

            Good lord did you wake up with goal of antagonizing the most people humanly possible.

            • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 3:37 pm

              I’m starting a simple fact related to elections. That every county “matters”. If we did not include every one of the counties that to you are below a threshold that “matters” then Hillary would have won in a landslide.

              I also implied that Democrats want to raise taxes, place regulations on business and legalize the killing of unborn babies. I don’t think that’s that controversial


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

              • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:41 pm

                They don’t matter because they are small and offset with opposing voting patterns. Google Nelson County and Falls Church for voting histories.

            • district1 November 7, 2017 at 3:39 pm

              Can’t blame a guy for starting his drinking a little early on election day 🙂


              ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:35 pm

            Unborn babies??

  • cer November 7, 2017 at 3:37 pm

    Right now I’m much more interested in election day info vs policy related commentary. 🙂


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 3:37 pm

    Unbelievably to me but apparently confirmed, Arlington has got 48% versus 49% in 2013.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject

  • JPF November 7, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    NOVA Democratic surge doesn’t shock me at all. People HATE Trump here and want revenge. I’m more interested in how Newport News, Richmond and Norfolk compare.


    VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    48% turnout in Arlington, including absentees. Already higher than 2013 total at 3pm.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 3:58 pm

    Sounds like NoVA and rural VA is voting big time but AA VA is lagging big time. IMO sounds like a small Gillespie win then.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 4:01 pm

      Bedwetter in chief… lol


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 7, 2017 at 4:05 pm

        Tekzilla is a skeptic i respect.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:04 pm

      I actually haven’t seen turnout from most of the AA populations. Which ines are you seeing?

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 4:11 pm

      Obviously I hope that TEK is right.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • jncca November 7, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    I guess I’ll chime in with a prediction for a Northam win of >4%.

    I’m sticking with the theory that the last-minute consensus is the least accurate of all. That consensus is that Gillespie made it a nailbiter. I’m skeptical. But I’m ignoring turnout figures because they are all kinds of BS.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 4:12 pm

      That’s not the last minute consensus though. The last minute consensus was that while Gillespie made it very close and may have even taken a slight lead last week, Northam seems to have recovered over the weekend and is favored to get a narrow victory.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • jncca November 7, 2017 at 5:06 pm

        I don’t think Gillespie ever got within 3.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 6:12 pm

          We’ll find out within a few hours. As I said yesterday, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gillespie won and I wouldn’t be surprised if Northam won by close to 10. I think current polling methodology is highly inconsistent and flawed. Even internal polls are not what they once were (when both Hillary’s and R internal polls had Hillary winning last year).


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:05 pm

    Mecklenburg County turnout high…not sure exact numbers.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928002933752565761

    • segmentation_fault November 7, 2017 at 4:15 pm

      Should point out that this is VA not NC, where there’s a big mayoral race

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:22 pm

        Yes VA. Good news for Gillespie. Irrelevant for Charlotte Mayor.

      • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 4:47 pm

        Where I’ll be shocked to see them crack 25% turnout today.


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 4:27 pm

      Mecklenburg County looks and votes a lot like Mississippi


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    “At this pace Ralph will be relying on the 35000 absentee edge alone by 5 pm. It’s trending tighter as day goes on.”

    https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927999269851815939

    Thing’s getting very shaky for Northam along with the Petersburg #’s, I’m now predicting a narrow win for Gillespie.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:24 pm

      His logic holds it’s just annoying how he is so irresponsible with his own numbers. 5 hours ago “biggest Dem Guv win since 1985.” Now he goes on and on about how NoVa trends past few elections made the early numbers unreasonable because NoVa votes early and wasn’t going to keep up. It can’t be/couldn’t be both…sigh.

      • rdelbov November 7, 2017 at 4:28 pm

        I suggested that turnout will be at 2013 levels-that looks wrong but still its who turns out here in VA that will decide. I know -duh-but its has been the case for this seat since day 1. Get the right turnout model and your poll is accurate.

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:39 pm

          Yes but you’re not wrong. It’s just that we can’t know what’s driving what where until tomorrow but even I knew 1985 wasn’t happening. I don’t even know how you get beyond +/-4 winning margin heading into today.

          Plus we aren’t getting hardly any reporting of Richmond, Norfolk, Newport News, Virginia Beach, etc which will likely be the deciders. NoVa seems to be comin in as planned but we don’t know if VA Beach is surging or Richmond is flopping or whatever.

        • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 4:42 pm

          I thought 2013 was generally regarded as having two of the least inspiring candidates with so many negative ads (probably worse than this race) that there’d be no way turnout would be that low again.

          If Gillespie wins, again I go back to his role as a strategist blowing the doors off of the Kerry campaign in 2004 in Ohio and other places, getting exactly the voters they needed to the polls, and he did that again in 2014 to turn an utterly unwinnable race into a less than 1 pointer.

        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:46 pm

          More confirmation on NoVa as Loudoun at 85k votes versus 89k in 2013. The places not reporting info will decide it one way or the other.

    • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 4:46 pm

      This guy is transparently using the entire Democratic election day playbook. Rs Doomed So Don’t Bother Turning Out, Republican voters! (Wait 6 hours) Ds on Edge! Better work GOTV super hard!

      I believe roughly nothing he says.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • cer November 7, 2017 at 4:50 pm

        He is a partisan, but his info tends be generally reliable.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 5:04 pm

          You can’t give me turnout numbers alone and have that be enough information for us to judge the outcome of this election. And there’s no way for anyone to say that the rain in NoVa has shaved 35k off a candidates margin. That is just absurd.


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:09 pm

            And only partial turnout. We’ve heard nothing from many places.

          • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 5:20 pm

            Exactly. Thats why 3/4 of the posts here today are useless. Turnout, even if accurate, tells us nothing about who people are actually voting for. We’ve been duped by this for years and people still haven’t learned.


            Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

            • cer November 7, 2017 at 5:30 pm

              Also like excepting almost every poll that is out there. Some folks just never learn. 🙂


              Conservative first, Republican second!

              • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:32 pm

                If it’s in the internet it has to be true. You know the rule…

      • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 4:50 pm

        Nobody should believe a word he says, basically. I don’t really think Gillespie went from losing by 10 this morning to closing in on .5%. Either he was going to win or he wasn’t.


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:51 pm

        I don’t think it’s a playbook. I just think he’s dumb and for whatever reason docunents every step.

        His predictions today were basically that because there was no snow on the first day of winter, there would be no snow all winter. Then the next day there was snow and he predicted worst winter ever.

        I’m no statistician but for God sakes the data at 10 am, which excluded some really important place, was never going to hold. And even if it did the excluded places still needed to come in.

        • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 5:05 pm

          You’re right. He could either be mildly malicious or mildly self-deluding. Same result.


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • shamlet November 7, 2017 at 4:35 pm

    Matt Isbell on twitter saying that turnout looks good for GOP in St. Petersburg FL Mayor race.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 4:48 pm

    Henrico at 40% versus 51% in 2013.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:03 pm

      Chesterfield at 4pm at 86k votes (excl absentee) vs 104k total in 2013. Seems like right in track.

  • andrew_1918 November 7, 2017 at 5:10 pm

    Some numbers from the first wave of VA exits

    Trump approval: 43-55%
    McAuliffe approval: 53-43%

    GOP fav/unfav: 38-59%
    Dem fav/unfav: 50-48%

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928020721032417280

    “Early exits are garbage but this Trump approval spread is better than what we’d seen in pre-election polls”
    https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/928021665774293003

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 5:14 pm

      Ignore all exits.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 5:16 pm

      Virginia exit poll (first wave) — Monuments to Confederate leaders on govt property should be…

      Removed 36%
      Left in place: 60%


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • prsteve11 November 7, 2017 at 5:18 pm

      And of course the early exits tell us nothing of the most important numbers of all, namely the gubernatorial contest, although Trump at 43% would seem to bode well for Gillespie.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 5:19 pm

        Very well. The first waves are almost always too D leaning. Feeling pretty confident in calling it for Gillespie now.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • GerGOP November 7, 2017 at 5:21 pm

          I always worry for your health on election day, Tek. 😉

        • SlippingJimmy November 7, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          Now I’m worried that you’re just understating the chances of a Northam victory…


          Republican, TX-22.

  • Conservative First November 7, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    MI-14: Rep. Lawrence puts chief of staff on leave over harassment claims
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/07/lawrence-sexual-harassment/107431444/

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 5:19 pm

    Charlottesville 4pm turnout 12,102 voted Election Day + 1,302 absentee = 13,404 voted or 45.4% of active reg voters. Exceeds 12,508 voted for Gov in 2013


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 5:20 pm

      Reminder that some percentage of voters will leave the top of the race blank so this isn’t an apples to apples comparison. But this makes sense overall I guess.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • bluewahoo November 7, 2017 at 6:15 pm

      I don’t know how much impact this will have, but Charlottesville is having a very competitive City council race today. Two Democrats, one very serious DSA endorsed Independent, and three unserious candidates (one running as the defacto republican).

  • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:30 pm

    Fairfax county 5 pm 46.8% same as 2013.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/928025871079833600

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:33 pm

      Falls Church 5 pm 57%

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:33 pm

      Richmond 4pm 37%

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:41 pm

        I’m trying to find solid source for 2013 turnout; what I see is 38% but I can’t confirm this so I don’t know if today’s 37% is good or bad.

    • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 5:34 pm

      Well it means they hit their 2013 turnout 2 hours early.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:40 pm

        I thought 315k votes would be it. Already at 320k. No slowdown from 2-5 pm really, 70k voters in that 3 hour span.

  • andrew_1918 November 7, 2017 at 5:39 pm

    PRELIM VA EXITS: Dems appear to have an edge over Reps in party ID among voters, just under 4 in 10 ID as Dems, just over 3 in 10 ID as Reps

    In ’16: Dems outnumbered Reps in VA by 7 pts
    In ’13 VA gov: Dems outpaced Reps by 5
    In ’09 VA gov: Reps outpaced Dems by 4 points

    https://twitter.com/PostPolls/status/928027060295086081

    • edtorres04 November 7, 2017 at 5:48 pm

      So that’s a 9 point edge for the D’s???

      • rayinma November 7, 2017 at 5:51 pm

        Their previous tweet on Trump approvals said it was “just over 40%” (43%), so if they’re likewise being partisan hacks with this tweet it could be more like 4%.

      • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 6:08 pm

        It’s another data point to put on the pile. I wouldn’t take any of these reports or preliminary exit polls too seriously.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • district1 November 7, 2017 at 5:51 pm

      Should actually say:

      “The demographically wrong unweighted numbers from our demographically wrong exit poll show Democrats with an edge.”

      Apparently media organizations have learned nothing. It would be totally fine for them to say “Northam voters think X” but making pronouncements about the differences in magnitude between groups is impossible to justify.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 5:45 pm

    Any turnout #’s from SWVA counties nobody seems to be reporting them?

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 5:46 pm

      Interesting isn’t it!?


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Chris Rawlings November 7, 2017 at 5:51 pm

        Charlottesville is extremely high. Hampton Roads is high, but that doesn’t really tell us anything. Henrico is at 2013 levels, which also doesn’t tell us a lot. It’s like Richmond and SW VA have fallen into a hole.


        • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:53 pm

          Richmond shows 37% as of 4 pm.

      • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:52 pm

        If you can find a SWVA county with a Twitter feed providing updates let us know. There’s no other way to easily get data from over 130 cities/counties. Don’t blame the lack of message receipt when no one within countes is providing the data publicly.

        • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 5:57 pm

          Been searching various county names in twitter and coming up with nothing, the whole area is basically a Fairfax Co. for Rs so I don’t know why people are ignoring it.

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 5:59 pm

            Me too all night. There’s no info public…oh well, they report first at least.

      • rayinma November 7, 2017 at 6:01 pm

        Yes, it’s very interesting that the ultra-left areas of NoVA are so quick to release all sorts of voting statistics but so slow to count votes…

        • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 6:06 pm

          To be fair much of NoVa still has long lines when the polls close at 7 ET, so they aren’t actually counting votes until 8,9, sometimes 10 ET.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 5:52 pm

    Prelim exit polls always good for D’s and then slowly trend more R later on. But a lot of Ds seem to be voting late so I don’t know it may trend more D later.

  • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 5:52 pm

    Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go https://t.co/VrDZTSguuc


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • pstchrisp November 7, 2017 at 5:57 pm

    Here’s the direct link to the 2017 version of the “Meter” that will always be my lasting memory of election night 2016.

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam

    • MosheM November 7, 2017 at 6:05 pm

      Yeah. Mine too. You had to read all the responses on Twitter to his tweet unveiling it.


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/928030383748403200

    Nate Silver points out that Exit Polls a year ago had Hillary Clinton winning by a landslide a year ago.

    All of the responses say either one of two things: She won by 3 million votes so it was a landslide! (2% of a number that doesn’t matter. LANDSLIDE), or “THIS IS PROOF THE VOTES WERE HACKED!!!!!!”

    And people say I’m too partisan when I make fun of the “resistance”?


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 6:06 pm

      The Twitter-verse is garbage, what else is new?


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:09 pm

        The problem is that we’ve seen TWO times where this has actually led to violence against Republicans.

        And both of those people’s twitters look similar to nearly every member of the “resistance”. It’s not just an annoying thing that clogs Twitter up with garbage, it’s literally threatening the lives of Republican Congressmen. And usually, the response from these “resistance” idiots to these attacks are either silence or “maybe they should think twice before taking away people’s healthcare now”. So the fact is that millions of these “resistance” people seem to be either supporting or indifferent to attacks on Republican Congressmen AND have almost identical twitters to the people attacking the congressmen. That scares me. It’s why in public, everyone I know thinks I’m a Democrat


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 6:30 pm

          I’m not trying to defend the extreme types, but I think you’re overexaggerating as to how many are out there. And I’m sure a lot of them are bots, just as the alt-right types have. Twitter is not a representative sample of the general public. And do you live in some super-politicized area? I’m in Miami and I never get asked about my political views.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:34 pm

            Yes. I do not like to give away my exact location. But I live in NoVA. which is near the federal Government, so that obviously increases politicization, and it has increased even more since Trump was elected. I would actually fear for my family’s safety if some of these people found out that I voted for Donald Trump. I would certainly lose all of my friends, and I’m worried consequences would be even worse, like get physically attacked bad. People talk about politics ALL the time here.


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:43 pm

              One thing I have to add is that most Democrats are normal people. I think even the normal Democrats have gone a little bit overboard about Trump, but are still mostly normal. But some of the Democrats out there scare me.


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

              • RRR November 7, 2017 at 6:59 pm

                Tens of millions of good, patriotic Americans voted for Trump with nothing but the best intentions at heart. Yet, a nasty, ethno-nationalistic element was emboldened by the divisive, nationalistic, and uber-populist campaign of 2016. That hateful group shouldn’t exist to start with, but it also isn’t as small as many would expect. I don’t blame minority groups in America for worrying about the influence of said ethno-nationalists on our society these days—like it or not, they have reason to be upset. Yet, extreme responses only serve to worsen things.


                PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
                More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

            • Indy1975a November 7, 2017 at 6:48 pm

              The people who are the ones most likely to do the physical attacks are likely not your friends, even the ones who would hate you for voting Trump. (Unless all your friends are antifa or something, in which case you should stay undercover…) Frankly if someone would stop being your friend because you voted for Trump, they aren’t your friend.
              Most of my friends (largely from church) voted for Trump, although many reluctantly. Some weren’t happy when I said that I left the ballot blank (and my wife voted for Hillary), but we haven’t lost anyone over it.


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

              • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:50 pm

                No, they’re not my friends. These are acquaintances. Most of my friends are normal Democrats who I do not tell just because I do not like to cause conflict.


                Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • andrew_1918 November 7, 2017 at 6:11 pm

      Btw:
      2013, VA exit poll: Obama Job Approval- 46/53
      2017, VA exit poll: Trump Job Approval- 43/55

  • RRR November 7, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Any news/updates out of Bestchester (as I like to think of it) or Nassau?


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 6:27 pm

    Found something on a SWVA county.

    https://twitter.com/WCYB_Lucas/status/928028227364323329

    • Midnight901 November 7, 2017 at 6:29 pm

      Very small sample, but it is an extremely Republican area.

    • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Bedford Co. 33.5 as of 4pm.

      https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928041878213324800

    • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      No idea how it votes in midterms. But this precinct had 1,010 total voters in 2016. It went 79% Trump 18% Clinton


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • GorrestFump November 7, 2017 at 6:31 pm

      Tazwell Co. expected to be ‘on pace with 2013’ so mid 30s they said.

      http://www.wvva.com/clip/13886335/2017/11/07/voter-turnout-now-on-pace-in-tazewell-county?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_phess_WVVA

    • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 6:36 pm

      Wow, that’s incredibly impressive. Almost a little too impressive actually, as linear extrapolation of that result suggests that Lee County will have around 12,000 voters this election . . . when they only had 9k votes in 2016.

      I’m probably doing the math a little wrong somewhere, like mis-judging which precinct they actually mean (Is this for both of the precincts that covers Jonesville?), but its still a good sign for Gillespie.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:40 pm

        How’d you get that? That precinct had 1,010 votes in 2016 from what I can tell


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 6:46 pm

          I pulled the precinct that covered Jonesville on DRA that would have had around 1100 registered voters, (1,567 total pop, other was too small), and extrapolated 800 votes (since the day isn’t over yet) per 1567 total people out to the county at large (which has about 24k people in it) and that gives me 12k votes.

          Either the precinct in question is much larger than the one I’m looking at (and therefore has <50% of its population registered as voters), or the 746/1100 value is wrong. I mean, that's 68% turnout in itself . . . which seems way too high for an off-off-year election.


          R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:49 pm

            Huh. I googled Jonestown middle school Lee County VA and typed the address into DDHQ’s national precinct map

            https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/

            It said 1,010 votes, which would be an insane 92% turnout. Somehow I feel like something is wrong here.


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 6:57 pm

              That precinct is covering both the one I pulled from DRA and most of the neighboring one. Those 2 combined had about 1165 votes in 2008, out of a total of 2,889 people. 800 votes from that combined precincts at that ratio would give a total Lee County turnout of about 6645, which is still notably above the predicted value of 5500, but far closer to the realm of possibility.

              Still, I find it confusing that only ~1,100 people would be registered in a precinct of that size. This person might be comparing the current precinct’s vote totals to the previous one’s RV list, which gives the impression of much higher turnout.


              R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 6:51 pm

            The precinct was created by the merger of 2 precincts. My guess is one of the numbers (ref voters) is probably wrong. The county gets nowhere near that turnout and there just aren’t enough precincts for this one to be that much of an outlier.

            https://www.vpap.org/elections/precinct/3082

            • Greyhound November 7, 2017 at 7:01 pm

              Yeah, I think that’s what happened. I was just confused by the ~800 voter/1100 registered voters number, which is higher than you would expect for a Presidential election. If my analysis above is solid (and its much closer to grounded than my original post), SWVA is still over-performing turnout expectations, but by like 15-20% instead of by like 250%.

              All in all, good numbers for the GOP, probably. Not sure if even that would be able to overcome the apparent tidal wave of votes in Fairfax, but still a good anecdote for the Gillespie.


              R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • MikeFL November 7, 2017 at 6:31 pm

    I think this is going to be a long night.


    26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 6:43 pm

      I think you are right.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • RogueBeaver November 7, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    TX-2: Poe retiring. https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/928045321971695618


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • shamlet November 7, 2017 at 6:47 pm

      WTF is with these people announcing it on election day?


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Boehnerwasright November 7, 2017 at 7:02 pm

      Did I miss that today is national retirement announcement day?

  • GOPTarHeel November 7, 2017 at 6:45 pm

    Calling it now: Northam +5, Ds +9 in the HoD.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/928043886039183362

    Read the tea leaves however you will on this


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • FiveAngels November 7, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    Most important fact of the night might be Trump’s 43% approval in VA according to exit polls. Just to remind everyone why RV and adults polls are useless trash.

  • TheWizardOf144 November 7, 2017 at 6:56 pm

    Whether Gillespie wins or loses tonight (and at the moment, I actually think he wins and I’m almost certain Vogel wins) this suggests 2018 is going to be just fine for the Republicans.

    Yeah, we’ll lose about a dozen house seats but probably gain 2-3 net in the Senate.

    When the base wakes up (like they did in GA06 and belatedly in VA), we more than hold our own.

    • Upstater22 November 7, 2017 at 6:59 pm

      If Gillespie loses by double digits and Dems pick up double digits in the HoD, that certainly is not a good omen for 2018. Let’s see the votes first.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:59 pm

    This is completely anecdotal and worth absolutely nothing.

    But I have a few friends who are solid Democrats and voted Northam/Vogel/Adams

    I was very surprised.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 6:59 pm

    Heavily AA Petersburg at 6PM 7750 votes (includes absentee). In 2013 was about 8300 total votes cast. So getting close to 2013 with an hour left.

  • Midnight901 November 7, 2017 at 7:11 pm

    I know many are probably sick and tired of exit polls, but:

    Virginia exit poll:

    White (68%)
    Gillespie 59%
    Northam 40%

    Black (20%)
    Gillespie 13%
    Northam 86%

    Latino (6%)
    Gillespie 35%
    Northam 62%

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928050931165429760

    • Midnight901 November 7, 2017 at 7:12 pm

      Same guy’s exit poll also says Gillespie won white college grads 50-49% and white non-college grads 74%-24%.

    • Manhatlibertarian November 7, 2017 at 7:21 pm

      This exit poll indicates Blacks turn out in proportion to their percent of the Va. population -20%. This would be a good Black turnout if true but I wonder.

    • rdw72777 November 7, 2017 at 7:38 pm

      And they leave out Asians. Surprised if they didn’t hit 5%.

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