TX-2: Rep. Ted Poe (R) will not Seek Re-election

Another (annoying for me) Election Day House Retirement. Texas Rep. Ted Poe (R) has decided not to seek a ninth term in what is becoming a banner year for turnover in the TX delegation. Poe’s retirement opens up TX-2, an R+11 seat wrapping a thin arc around the second-ring northern suburbs of Houston (with a tail into the west-central part of the city to soak up a few white liberals). This seat trended strongly against Trump like many suburban Texas districts, but he still carried it by 9 points and it is more strongly Republican downballot. So this is unlikely to be a realistic Dem pickup target barring a mammoth wave, though one or more of the little-known D candidates taking on Rep. John Culberson (R) in the bluer TX-7 next door may decide to move here.

For Republicans, not a single State Senator lives in or even particularly near the seat; State Sen. Paul Bettencourt (R) represents the bulk of the district but as best I can tell lives well within TX-7; he could carpetbag. State Reps. Kevin Roberts (R), Dan Huberty (R), Valoree Swanson (R), Gary Elkins (R), and Dwayne Bohac (R) live in or near the district. From local office, the big name to watch is probably Harris County commissioner Jack Cagle (R), who represents essentially the entire seat. From countywide office, I believe Harris CE Ed Emmett (R) lives here, though he is a bit old to run at 69. Harris County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez (R) could also be a name to watch, though he lives outside the district near the county’s west edge.

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  • Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    Ds still waiting on Culberson and Sessions lol.

    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • cer November 7, 2017 at 6:50 pm

      Unfortunately for the Dems…. these are red districts.

      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • andyroo312 November 7, 2017 at 7:03 pm

        Sane Republicans no longer want to deal with the demented sociopath in the White House or the doormats in GOP congressional leadership.


        • cer November 8, 2017 at 2:05 pm

          Trump is NO sociopath. Maybe those members of Congress are just getting a tad too old….

          Ted Poe is NO spring chicken these days.

          Conservative first, Republican second!

  • HoneyBee November 7, 2017 at 6:54 pm

    This was Trump’s 5th worst district in the country outside of Utah relative to Romney, and his 3rd worst held by a Republican relative to Romney.

    Luckily, Trump still won this by 10%. Should still be safe.

    For anyone curious, the worse ones (outside of Utah) were in order:

    TX-07 (west Houston) John Culberson (R)
    GA-06 (North inner atlanta suburbs) Karen Handel (R)
    VA-08 (Arlington, Alexandria Falls Church and inner Fairfax) Don Beyer (D)
    CA-33 (Wealthy parts of LA) Ted Lieu (D)

    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • johnintx November 7, 2017 at 9:56 pm

    I live in the district. It’s not a Trump Republican district, and it is diversifying, but it’s still red enough to elect an R. The D’s could make it interesting in an open seat situation, but an R will eventually win.

    I’m not plugged in, but I can speculate.

    I’ll drop the name of Houston City Councilman Dave Martin. He represents Kingwood, a significant GOP base. I have no clue if he’ll run, but he has cast a very high profile after Hurricane Harvey.

    Paul Bettencourt is the former Harris County Tax Assessor, and is closely associated with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. He would be a formidable candidate if he runs here.

    Jack Cagle would also be a strong candidate. A Harris County commissioner represents more people than a member of Congress, as there are four commissioners for a county of 4.5 million people. County commissioners strike a high profile, as their names are on signs and buildings all over their precinct. He would have high name recognition simply by having his name on street signs throughout the district.

    Dan Huberty is my state rep. He is rumored to not be running for re-election to the State House. He was closely aligned with outgoing Speaker Joe Straus. As chairman of the House Education Committee, he blocked a school voucher bill. This has generated a challenge for re-election to his House seat. In addition, he has been involved in a drunken confrontation with a reporter just off the floor of the Texas House. http://www.theblaze.com/news/2015/10/20/texas-lawmakers-bizarre-confrontation-with-reporter-caught-on-video-you-got-a-problem-with-me/ This would be brought up in a multi-way primary for a congressional seat.

    An open seat could go to anyone.

    TX-02. Somewhere between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Was #NeverTrump, now hoping for the best.

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