Political Roundup for November 8th, 2017

Remember, remember, the 7th of November…

Last Night’s Results

Democrats did well on a lot of friendly turf last night. In the marquee race of the evening, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) defeated Ed Gillespie (R) by 9 points in VA-Gov. Democrats also appear close to taking the Virginia House of Delegates, with recounts pending and a possible 50-50 split in that chamber that could play a major role in 2021 redistricting control in Virginia. In other races, Phil Murphy (D) easily won NJ-Gov as expected; Provo Mayor John Curtis won the UT-3 special election; Democrats took control of the Washington State Senate through their victory in WA-SD-45; and Democrats won two State House specials, GA-HD-117 and GA-HD-119, in the Athens area of  Georgia.

National

Populist/Nationalist Uprising…or not: The Economist posits that despite conventional wisdom purporting the opposite, political power follows economic power. The magazine explains that the global upper class has been successfully flexing its muscle. As proof, it notes that Brexit has resulted in a wage squeeze due to the Pound’s decline and that the Donald’s “revolution” has resulted in… a tax cut bill that benefits the wealthy.

Hudson Valley Hasids: Mutual contempt between the Hasidic residents of the Hudson Valley and their neighbors is at an all-time high. The Village of Kiryas Joel’s Haredi residents and their longer-tenured neighbors in the Town of Monroe have, for years, experienced severe tensions. These tensions and KJ’s rapid growth catalyzed a vote yesterday on the question of KJ secession from Monroe.

The Irrational Electorate: Harvard economist Edward Glaeser has published groundbreaking work on “the attribution error, or voters’ tendency to believe that politicians have more control than they really do. Of course, we the people would never elect anyone of importance thinking that they could snap their fingers and quickly enact massive, structural changes…

The Year of the Womyn: According to lyin’ NBC News, there were a record number of female candidates on the ballot in Virginia’s elections yesterday.

Redistricting: While no surprise to RRH readers, the elections yesterday mark the beginning of a three-year course of elections that will determine control of 2020’s decennial redistricting process.

Big City Mayors and Millenials: Big city mayors are finding that pocketbook and infrastructure issues, such as affordable housing and good public transit, top the list of millennials’ concerns. While condescending conventional wisdom says that millennials are attracted by “cultural districts” and the like, this new information flips that narrative on its head.

Congress

NJ-02: Twelve-term Congressman Frank LoBiondo (R) is retiring from his purple South Jersey seat. South Jersey Political Boss Tony Soprano George Norcross has promised State Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) his imperative full support in the case of his likely bid.

TX-Sen: What do Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke have in common? No, this isn’t the beginning of a joke: the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the two rivals are both pushing back against those in their respective parties who
oppose NAFTA. Both men wisely cite the tremendous benefits that Texas has reaped from the poorly-understood trade deal.

TX-02: Seven-term Congressman Ted Poe (R) has announced he will not seek re-election to his Houston-area US House district.

The States

CA-Gov: The Los Angeles Times reports that former Congressman Doug Ose (R) is considering a gubernatorial bid.

IL-AG: For AG, the C[r]ook County Democrats have endorsed State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D) over, among others, former Governor Pat Quinn (D).

TX HD-46: In her first press appearance since being acquitted, State Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin) waxed presidential. Dukes alleged that the media and her colleagues had treated her “very unfairly” during her corruption trial. Sad!

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284 Comments

  • MosheM November 8, 2017 at 7:02 am

    Trump. Backstabber in Chief. Lowest of the low.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/928074747316928513

    Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!

    Can’t wait for him to lose reelection.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 7:09 am

      He’s delusional, so no surprise.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 7:35 am

        i doubt he would accept a loss.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 8:56 am

          Trump’s narcissism is such that he can only believe he’s the best at everything and everything is about him. He can’t accept that a loss has anything to do with him. In his mind he only wins.

          • cer November 8, 2017 at 9:21 am

            Welcome to the narrsastic world of politics.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

    • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 7:32 am

      This is actually a bigger red flag for Republicans elsewhere than most of Trump’s bloviating. If anyone thought that Trump would have their back and not throw them under the bus immediately if something goes awry, this is your answer.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 7:37 am

        If this was a parliamentary system, Trump would have never been nominated as party leader nor would he survive such antics.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • HS November 8, 2017 at 8:19 am

        This is not a surprise. How could anyone think that Trump would be loyal to Gillespie? Has he ever acted loyal in the past? No. He always throws people under the bus, including people he has known for a long time.

        I don’t like his behavior, but I doubt the Dems are going to shape up in 3 years and put forward an acceptable candidate for me. They will run a solid lefty who would continue Obama’s programs with the IRS and other government agencies,which involves weaponizing the government against conservatives. They will run another Obama foreign policy semi-isolationist who works against our allies to woo our enemies (see Iran, Cuba, North Korea, and yes, Russia).

        Btw, people don’t necessarily vote for nice people who are loyal to others. See Bill Clinton for another example. And Trump could certainly win again. Obama’s team got crushed in VA in 2009 – a reverse from this year – and he still won re-election.

  • cer November 8, 2017 at 7:17 am

    Don’t assume he will lose re-election.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • GorrestFump November 8, 2017 at 7:30 am

    Hopefully VA can finally get early voting with the HoD results. Dems should drive a hard bargain with Senate Rs.

    • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 7:34 am

      Maybe a 31-30 R Senate, a 50-50 power sharing agreement in the House, and a Democratic governor that was recruited to switch parties a few years ago is a recipe for some form of bipartisan something. We’ll see.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 7:38 am

        Actually i doubt it. Northam types often go full blown ideologue on social issues to prove they are loyal.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Chris Rawlings November 8, 2017 at 9:45 am

          This is exactly what I was thinking last night. Sometimes the centrists are the ones who move hardest to the left on the most volatile issues.


      • GorrestFump November 8, 2017 at 7:51 am

        I think VA could be one of the most closely divided state legs in the country now.

        • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 10:02 am

          I’d say it is easily the most closely divided if it stays 50/50 and 31/30. That’s literally as close as it can get when one of the chambers has an odd number of members.

          • GoBigRedState November 8, 2017 at 12:03 pm

            The state Senate is actually 21-19 R.


            45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

    • cer November 8, 2017 at 7:35 am

      I hate early voting. Election day means just that….


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • HS November 8, 2017 at 8:01 am

      We already have absentee voting. I can go in over the weekend and vote before election day, making up any excuse without proof. What does early voting bring us that is new?

      • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 8:05 am

        A lot of people won’t lie to poll workers and make up an excuse. We saw a huge increase in absentee voting in Minnesota between 2012 and 2016 when it went from excuse required to no excuse required. It was a marked change.

        • Jon November 8, 2017 at 6:52 pm

          Particularly because you swear under penalty of perjury that the reason you give is valid. (Even if they never actually check up)

          But I also note that when several Southern states opened up early voting in the 90s they combined it with satellite voting locations; which made it much more convenient to vote in person early.


          45, M, MO-02

      • cer November 8, 2017 at 8:07 am

        AV voting is ok…. military, and others who are traveling out of state…. no problem.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Jon November 8, 2017 at 6:54 pm

          The second part of this leads to absurd results :
          On a practically daily basis I currently cross from MO into IL. While several years ago when I needed to vote early every election I was two hours away but well within the state’s boundary.


          45, M, MO-02

    • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 8:18 am

      I just wish they’d make Election Day a holiday at this point.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 10:28 am

        Why? So everyone could go away for a vacation and not vote?


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 12:20 pm

          You make a good point that I hadn’t thought of. Some people will think, “If I’m getting a day off I’m taking my kids out/going skiing/visiting family. I’m not hanging around here so I can vote.” You’re better off giving them off just enough time to vote. Which we do.

        • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 4:17 pm

          I guess I should’ve added instead of having early voting. I mean it’s not like Tuesday is a great day to go on vacation anyway.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 4:31 pm

            You call in sick or take a personal day Monday and make it a 4 day weekend which is what I guess most people would do. A Tuesday Federal holiday kills 2 business days (just like the Thursday Thanksgiving turns the next Friday into a quasi national holiday).


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • Jon November 8, 2017 at 6:59 pm

              Yup; your better off making it on Saturday that doesn’t have a holiday than making a Tuesday a regularly recurring holiday. With poll closing late enough that it’s still open for a couple hours after sunset (mostly for the August primaries if they were moved at the same time)


              45, M, MO-02

  • cinyc November 8, 2017 at 7:41 am

    I put up a very quick diary with a very preliminary NYC precinct map here:
    http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2017/11/08/2017-nyc-mayoral-race-by-precinct/

    • MosheM November 8, 2017 at 7:43 am

      Thanks!


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • w920us November 8, 2017 at 7:46 am

    I wish we could move all PA statewide judicial elections to the off-year when Philly does not hold mayoral and city council elections! 😜

    Like clockwork, the turnout drop from Philly Democrats in this year in the 4 year election cycle is dramatic. You basically shave off 200,000-300,000 votes from the Democrats.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • rdelbov November 8, 2017 at 8:02 am

    Long night for the GOP–

  • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 8:15 am

    I analyzed a bunch of precinct data last night and have come to a few conclusions:

    The GOP’s problem last night was not the suburban moderate who didn’t vote for Trump. Gillespie got more raw votes than Ken Cuccinelli in nearly every precinct, even the very wealthy educated ones.

    The GOP’s problem was the insanely excited white liberal base. Who came out at absolutely absurd levels.

    Like I mentioned last night, I saw some precincts in NoVA where Ralph Northam got more votes than Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama did.

    I honestly don’t mean to be inflammatory when I say this: the Democrat base is full of a lot of white liberals who literally think Trump is turning us into a dictatorship, that he’s going to try to round up minorities and put them into concentration camps. These people are voting like their lives depend on it (even though they obviously don’t). They are completely obsessed with politics right now.

    What this means in effect, is I think there’s a lot of seats that could be in danger that Trump won, and a lot of seats that aren’t in as much danger that Trump lost.

    For instance, I don’t think John Culberson in TX-7 is in that much trouble. The Dem base there is mostly minorities. And the people who swung against us were moderates, not white liberals.

    I do think Barabara Comstock is a total goner. As evidenced by House of Delegates votes last night, these white Liberals who are so extremely angry do not care about candidate quality. They care about one thing and one thing only: the party label. They want to elect as many Democrats as possible so they can stop the “dictatorship” that is a fiction in their minds. I also think for similar reasons that Darrell Issa is a total goner as are Dave Reichert and Martha McSally’s seats.

    I also think KS-2 and OH-1 are probably losses even though Trump won them. I think Claudia Tenney, Tom Reed, John Faso and Elise Stefanik are in some trouble. I think Mia Love in Utah is probably a goner. And I think Chris Stewart in Utah is going to have a competitive race.

    I think in California Valadao is not in a ton of trouble. Like I said earlier, Issa is a goner. I think Mimi Walters is probably a goner, as UC Irvine is in that district. I’m not sure about Royce and Rohrbacher because I don’t know what those areas are like exactly, but my guess would be a loss.

    I think we’ll do fine in LoBiondo and Ros-Lehtinen’s open seats. Obviously they’re swing seats and could go either way, but they don’t have a lot of white liberals, so I could see us holding onto them.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 8:25 am

      Population has grown since 2013 in Virginia, this race was viewed way more competively than 2013, and Trump’s approval nationally is sitting in the high 30s. This is not just liberals/resistance types, I’m sorry.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 8:36 am

        Actually, since 2013, Virginia’s population growth has significantly slowed down.

        And Gillespie’s overall votes over Cuccinelli increased by 15%, which is enough to significantly outpace population growth.

        Remember we saw insane turnout numbers in Arlington and Fairfax?

        In Loudoun County, the county in the state where Gillespie did the absolute worst relative to Cuccinelli margin wise, Gillepsie had a 14% increase in raw votes over Cuccinelli. Now Loudoun County is growing, but that is certainly enough to outpace population growth. The problem is that Northam had an absurd 57% increase over McAuliffe.

        For some even more shocking numbers, here’s some precinct numbers (I omitted the one where I live because I don’t want to reveal it)

        Arlington Precinct 024- Woodlawn

        Northam 1592
        Gillespie 333

        In 2016 Hillary Clinton won this precinct 1492 to 354.

        Ed Gillespie got only 19 votes less than Trump in an OFF YEAR. He got significantly more than Cuccinelli. That’s a good performance. The problem is Ralph Northam got 100 MORE than Hillary.


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 8:53 am

          Here’s some more:

          Arlington 017 Overlee Knolls

          GIllespie got MORE votes than Trump.

          it was Clinton 1251
          Trump 337

          Northam won it 1333-368. That is absolutely absurd.

          Same thing in Arlington 037-Nottingham

          Clinton 1003-Trump 362. Northam 1122 Gillespie- 365

          Arlington 011- East Falls Church
          Clinton 786- Trump 260 Northam 859- Gillespie 265

          This is the worst one yet. The results of this precinct are absolutely insane.

          Arlington 035- Madison

          Clinton won it 887-488 over Trump. This was a district that Jim Moran LOST in 2012. Barack Obama almost lost this. He came within 5% of losing.

          Northam won it 1182-575! He got 33% more votes than Hillary Clinton! Once again, Gillespie outperformed Ken Cuccinelli

          This has only been looking at Arlington because that was the one with the most white liberals and the most insane turnout. I’m sure there’s similar areas in Fairfax too.

          The problem was our base turned out like normal. Their white base turned out like it was a Presidential election


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • Wahoowa November 8, 2017 at 12:01 pm

            Can I just say I appreciate Honeybee doing actual elections analysis here? You can agree or disagree, but it’s an on-topic assessment either way and adds something of substance to the conversation.


            CO-7

        • jocallag November 8, 2017 at 7:09 pm

          Your precinct comparisons between 2016 and 2017 are misleading because Va does not include the very substantial absentee vote in the precinct results. Hillary out polled Northam 94000 to 68000 in Arlington county when you include the absentee vote which was 37000 there in 2016 but only 12000 in 2017. So it is very unlikely that Northam s vote was higher or even close to Hillary’s at the precinct level

          • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 7:15 pm

            Huh, I guess you’re right


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • HS November 8, 2017 at 8:31 am

      As I said before, Trump is actually governing as a moderate Republican who is the most liberal Republican in modern times on social issues. But, as you demonstrate, the Dem leadership has been ginning up their people by saying just the opposite, and it worked last night. Btw, I love the Handsmaid Tale BS – a fiction piece written to lambaste Reagan, being dusted off for use with Trump. Does the strategy ever change?

      • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 8:35 am

        Well maybe if Trump, Bannon, and co. would actually govern as conservatives instead of making it their life’s goal to piss off the left in exchange for giving red meat to their base to excuse their incompetence, there wouldn’t be this turnout disparity.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • HS November 8, 2017 at 9:25 am

          Trump has been more conservative than I hoped. Bannon as well. Both are unnecessarily antagonistic to others, including other Republicans, but that seems to be the state of the times. But I strongly doubt Trump or Bannon behaving better would mute the Dem frenzy. What Trump or Bannon does has no bearing on what the Dems are doing. They were just as crazy under Bush post-2005. It works for them in elections, plus many of them really believe their talking points. This will be their new normal behavior for any Republican President.

      • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 9:38 am

        Almost every action Trump has taken on his own, like regulations and courts, has been governing as a conservative.

        Doesn’t count for some people obviously because policies don’t matter.

      • Chris Rawlings November 8, 2017 at 9:47 am

        To the contrary, I think he’s trying hardest to hang onto the dwindling SoCon base in the country, because it’s all he’s got left.


    • cer November 8, 2017 at 8:55 am

      “I also think KS-2 and OH-1 are probably losses even though Trump won them. I think Claudia Tenney, Tom Reed, John Faso and Elise Stefanik are in some trouble. I think Mia Love in Utah is probably a goner. And I think Chris Stewart in Utah is going to have a competitive race. ”

      I think you are 100% wrong about KS-2 and OH-1. Chris Stewart in Utah will easily win, and it won’t even be close.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • californianintexas November 8, 2017 at 10:20 am

        Yeah, I find a 2-2 delegation here hard to believe. There just aren’t enough “resistance” types in the SL portion to balance out the rest.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • GoBigRedState November 8, 2017 at 12:07 pm

        Yeah-I have no idea where one gets anything about those seats from the Virginia results. Chris Stewart has never won by less than 28 points. To see him suddenly getting a competitive race borders on the ludicrous. If this is all about white liberals being energized, what does that have to do with KS-2? There aren’t hardly any white liberals in KS-2 outside of Lawrence(which isn’t a big part of the district anyway).


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

  • GOPTarHeel November 8, 2017 at 8:22 am

    The Virginia HoD map is winning the contest for stupidest of the decade, other than the Arkansas congressional draw. It utterly collapsed everywhere.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • bluewahoo November 8, 2017 at 8:28 am

      Yep. No doubt.

      This is the crow that I’ll be eating today. I saw the statewide sweep as very likely all cycle, even in the last ten days when the pick-up truck mania started. I never, ever, thought the HoD results would be this.

    • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 9:44 am

      Well, the Arkansas Democrats wanted to keep the seats in the hands of white Blue Dogs and didn’t want a black Democrat to have a shot at a seat. But it should have been obvious even in 2011 where that maps was going.

      Some people might have predicted this outcome in 2011? But not many… remember Gerry Connolly nearly lost VA-11 in the 2010 election.

      Thankfully these angry white women are far less important in the 2018 Senate battlegrounds which are all much more like SW Virginia.

    • Jon November 8, 2017 at 7:02 pm

      Don’t forget that it worked for most of the decade.
      Arkansas failed immediately.


      45, M, MO-02

  • w920us November 8, 2017 at 8:24 am

    Sadly these hate-filled white liberal Resistance types are the future of the Democratic Party. God help us.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 8:27 am

      Absolutely they are.

      I think if Democrats take the hosue take the house Trump is absolutely getting impeached (not removed). They don’t need a reason from Mueller or anyone, the base will demand it and they will do it. They will use some ridiculous “emoluments clause” reason or something like that (as if the founders intended for no business owners to ever be President) and it will be a big political s***show. Then, the Senate will vote to acquit Trump, and it will be embarassing for the Democrats, but only enrage white liberals more


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 10:14 am

        Doubt it. If Dems take the House, it’ll almost surely be by a slight margin and that handful of Democrats who put the party over the top by winning close races aren’t terribly likely to hop aboard the impeachment train. (That is, unless something new and devastating surfaces with the Trumpster.)


        MA-7

    • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 8:30 am

      Almost like how hate-filled, alt-right types forced Trump on us and appear to be the future of the Republican Party, no?


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • HS November 8, 2017 at 8:36 am

        Actually, it was a combination of bad establishment types who kept insulting their conservative base, the MSM determined to find a tomato can to lose to Hillary, and a dysfunctional group of GOP candidates who made Trump the candidate. The mostly made up alt-right had almost nothing to do with it.

        You are going full lefty dude. Never go full lefty.

        • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 10:16 am

          Mike’s not a lefty, nor am I.

          Perhaps someday, once the party has cleansed itself of the Trump odor, I shall return to the GOP! 🙂


          MA-7

          • HS November 8, 2017 at 10:39 am

            He isn’t so far, but it sounds like his dislike of Trump is driving him there.

            I see no evidence you are a Republican, unless you are a RINO. You hate Trump, which is totally understandable. But you also hate Santorum, with a passion. And you think George H.W. Bush ran a racist campaign in 1988!!! You don’t sound like a Republican to me.

            • jncca November 8, 2017 at 10:40 am

              I think Bush ran a mildly racist campaign in 1988 but I like the guy just fine. You don’t have to hate someone just because they made a moderately unethical decision once.


              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

              • HS November 8, 2017 at 10:40 am

                And you are a Democrat.

                • jncca November 8, 2017 at 10:43 am

                  Yeah but I’m saying you can dislike a choice political figures made without disliking them on the whole. And that is probably how AndyRoo feels about Bush.


                  24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • HS November 8, 2017 at 11:07 am

                    I understand. But the question is what is a Republican, and who really is one. And what he has written in the past, added up, does not give strong evidence that he actually supports many Republicans.

                    The problem here is that it is a common tactic for Democrats, or Republicans who are no longer really Republican, to claim their bonifides as Republican as a way to strengthen their case to support Democrats.

            • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 11:55 am

              I’m not a registered R anymore – I was up until 2013, when I moved over to unenrolled. I indeed loathe both Trump and Santorum but adore Bush ’41 and would’ve voted for him in both ’88 AND ’92. I just thought the Willie Horton ad was appalling.


              MA-7

              • cer November 8, 2017 at 12:44 pm

                I was never a BIG Bush 41 fan because he really threw conservatives under the bus, and never forget “read my lips”….


                Conservative first, Republican second!

              • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 3:34 pm

                I’m legitimately asking, what do you think is wrong with the Willie Horton ad?

                The ad is 100% factual. It lists fact after fact and compares Bush with Dukakis.

                The Democrats call it “racist” because they say it plays on the fear of black people or some nonsense like that which makes no sense. Black criminals SHOULD be portrayed in a negative light, as should white, Hispanic and asian criminals. They’re criminals. Is portraying any minority ever in a negative light racist now? Personally, I think people should be treated equally, and not treated differently because of their race. So I don’t think portraying one black person negatively is a problem, just as portraying one white person negatively is not a problem. To me, the actual racist thing to do would be to pick out Horton and say “wait, we need to choose a different criminal, because we can’t portray a black guy like that”


                Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

                • jncca November 8, 2017 at 3:43 pm

                  It was intended to play off voters’ racism. I mean it’s Lee Atwater. That’s what he did.

                  That doesn’t make Bush evil. It doesn’t even make Bush racist. But that was the purpose of the ad, and it was effective.

                  In an ideal world we treat everyone equally, but we know that people *don’t* respond equally, and recognizing that is just common sense.

                  Anyway, like I said, I don’t think it makes anyone a bad person. Campaigns can get a little dirty and the Willie Horton ad wasn’t that bad. Certainly nothing like the George Wallace campaign.


                  24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 3:50 pm

                    The Dems always claim this and they have no proof whatsoever. Do y’all have a mind reading machine? Because to me it simply looks like a guy taking advantage of a stupid policy his oppponent implemented

                    No in an “ideal” world you don’t treat people equally. In THIS world you treat people equally. Or you’re a racist. If you don’t treat people equally by their race, you are a racist. Skin color means nothing. So treating people differently off of it is stupid and racist. And the reason people are still responding to people differently due to race is because Dems insist that minorities cannot be treated like everyone else and they must be propped way up above us all.

                    That was not a racist ad. Anyone who says it is because it portrays a black person badly is a racist.


                    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

                    • fzw November 8, 2017 at 3:54 pm

                      The proof is from the horse’s mouth, but I’m guessing you’ll just say it’s fake news:

                      Atwater: As to the whole Southern strategy that Harry S. Dent, Sr. and others put together in 1968, opposition to the Voting Rights Act would have been a central part of keeping the South. Now you don’t have to do that. All that you need to do to keep the South is for Reagan to run in place on the issues that he’s campaigned on since 1964, and that’s fiscal conservatism, balancing the budget, cut taxes, you know, the whole cluster.
                      Questioner: But the fact is, isn’t it, that Reagan does get to the Wallace voter and to the racist side of the Wallace voter by doing away with legal services, by cutting down on food stamps?
                      Atwater: You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger”. By 1968 you can’t say “nigger”—that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states’ rights and all that stuff. You’re getting so abstract now [that] you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I’m not saying that. But I’m saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me—because obviously sitting around saying, “We want to cut this”, is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger”.

                      Source:
                      Lamis, Alexander P. et al. (1990) The Two Party South. New York: Oxford University Press.


                      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                      R-leaning Indy.

                    • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 4:05 pm

                      Did you even read the quote you posted?

                      Atwater’s point in that interview was that in 1968 racism was a big part of it, but by the time Reagan was running (HW was after Reagan) that was no longer the main point. He said it was POSSIBLE that subconsciously some people wanted to only cut things based on racsim, but he also did not accept that it was true and said
                      “But I’m saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me—because obviously sitting around saying, “We want to cut this”, is much more abstract than even the busing thing”

                      His point was that Reagan did NOT run on racial appeals.


                      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

                  • Conservative First November 8, 2017 at 5:51 pm

                    There were two ads, one by the Bush campaign and one by an outside group.
                    This is the Bush ad:
                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmwhdDv8VrM
                    This is the outside group ad:
                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

                • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 3:56 pm

                  Atwater knew exactly what he was doing.


                  MA-7

                  • HS November 8, 2017 at 4:13 pm

                    I notice you did not say anything about George W Bush, AndyRoo. Did you support him in 2000 and 2004? Who did you vote for in 2008 and 2012?

                    • andyroo312 November 9, 2017 at 10:06 am

                      I supported McCain (and then Gore) in ’00 and Lieberman (and then Kerry) in ’04. Supported Giuliani in ’08 (and then Obama) and interned with the Romney campaign in ’12.


                      MA-7

                    • HS November 10, 2017 at 11:25 am

                      Ok. Then you voted for Romney and that is it. I am sorry, but under any definition of a Republican voter, except for registered Republican in Name Only, you ain’t it. So, when you claim the Party can “win you back”, it really isn’t true that you were ever a loyal Republican voter.

                  • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 4:16 pm

                    I think you’ve bought the Dem propaganda hook, line and sinker


                    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

                    • andyroo312 November 9, 2017 at 10:05 am

                      HAHAHAHAHAHAHA no.


                      MA-7

            • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 12:39 pm

              None of my political views align with the Left, except gay marriage. On all the other social issues, I’m fairly moderate, and for fiscal and economic policy, I’m what would have been viewed as conservative as late as 2014. In every election except President 2016 I’ve voted Republican, I’m not joining the “Left” any time soon. I’m just anti-Trumpism.

              I was happy about Gorsuch and am glad that some of the deregulation is happening, FWIW.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

              • HS November 8, 2017 at 9:22 pm

                Ok. Fair enough. But then, if you are a conservative and you are being honest, you can’t say Trump isn’t governing in a conservative manner, as you did in an earlier thread. He clearly is governing as a moderate conservative, in many ways similar to Bush.

                I am quite sure Trump isn’t even a moderate conservative, btw. He is barely ideological, but if he can be classified as anything, he is really an old school Democrat who supports labor unions, somewhat hawkish on foreign policy (but not a democracy builder) but also is unafraid to be patriotic and doesn’t hate business interests.

                • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 10:45 pm

                  I guess I should rephrase, what he’s managed to do has been conservative, but a lot of what he rails about or claims he wants to do, e.g. the anti-free trade BS and other nationalistic things, aren’t, at least for the type of conservatism I subscribe to. On top of that, I can’t stand the reality show management in the administration and his rhetoric.

                  I align with the Rubios/Walkers of the party.


                  26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

                  • HS November 8, 2017 at 11:13 pm

                    I agree with a lot of that. And I voted for Rubio.

        • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 12:33 pm

          I was mainly being facetious, since it’s the same argument saying that Democratic voters are all evil hatefilled resistance types is the same BS argument that Dems were using against us for years.

          But to address your point, yes I think the establishment is a bunch of idiots who resent their voters to some extent, which I’ve made well known here. I actually think the worse crime with them, though, is trying to hide their inability to provide a Reaganesque or 1994-type of vision for the country by throwing red meat to an uninformed voter base instead of trying to solve their problems. This laid the pathway for Trump to get the nomination, via Birtherism and his subsequent demagoguery.

          The alt-right/Breitbart/whatever you want to call it, however, immediately latched on to Trump, who has continuously stoked the flames of such groups. And I’m not a lefty for realizing that. I don’t fault people for voting for him on the economy or the open SC spot, but I’m very anti-nationalism on top of his many personal and character flaws, so I find Trumpism at complete odds with my views. The Democrats are just much worse with my non-social views so here I am, a Republican in the wilderness.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 1:43 pm

            The big thing that prevents me from supporting Ds is their pro-abortion and their dislike for religion. If they returned to their 2006/2008 viewpoints and message I would find them easier to swallow.
            That said, I probably will vote for Ds over Bannonites just to contain Trumpism. In my state, this is easier; and I will almost certainly vote for Bob Casey (who is tolerable to me) over Lou Barletta.


            Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

            • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 2:07 pm

              Bob Casey is a fake pro-lifer!

              The Dems pull this trick all the time. I’m personally “pro-life” but I believe a woman should choose what to do with their body, is what they say. That’s basically the equivalent of saying murder is bad, but it should be legal because people should be able to choose what to do with their guns. Casey even supports federal funding for abortion giant planned parenthood.

              Casey voted against the CRA to allow states to defund planned parenthood, he voted against Gorsuch, and all pro-life conservative judges, and consistently voted for Obama’s liberal pro-abortion judges.

              Bob Casey claims he’s “pro-life” but in reality, there’s no difference between him and any other Dem on the issue.

              And Lou Barletta is not some crazy Bannonite. He’s a blue collar Republican who is very against illegal immigration, but not some guy who says crazy racist stuff like Steve King does all the time.

              It’s your decision obviously, I just don’t understand it if pro-life is your issue.


              Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

              • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 2:09 pm

                If Trump was more like Bartletta he would be very popular. Barletta is a good ideological fit for PA.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

            • TennesseeMike November 8, 2017 at 3:41 pm

              Bob Casey is as fake as they come. He reminds me of Tom Harkin. He said he was a pro-life Catholic his first race too. Both have never voted pro-life when it really counted. Thank God Tom Harkin is no longer in the Senate. I hope the same for Bob Casey in 2019.
              Lou Barletta is not crazy anything. If I still lived in Pennsylvania I would most definitely vote for the true blue pro-life conservative, Lou Barletta.


              TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

              • GoBigRedState November 8, 2017 at 4:47 pm

                I think Bob Casey benefits from his namesake father too. His father was a true pro-life Democrat in the Dan Lipinski mold. He clearly is not, but some people may be fooled into thinking he shares the same views as his father(or for that matter may think he is his father). At one time, Catholic Democrats who vote the way he does used to use the “personally opposed” dodge. Even Mario Cuomo used that line. Now they mostly don’t even bother stating that so clearly.


                45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

                • TennesseeMike November 8, 2017 at 5:36 pm

                  For sure. If Bob’s last name was Miller he would not be where he is.


                  TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 12:11 pm

        What bothered me most was that the party leadership didn’t lift a finger to stop Trump. Whatever the truth is as far as the DNC did to block Bernie Sanders, at least they prevented a far left anti-capitalist candidate who would have been a disastrous President from getting their nomination, even at the risk of losing the general. The RNC sat on their hands and let Trump effectively blackmail them with threats of running third party. This President was totally unfit for this office, did not have conservative principles at any point in his life, and should never have gotten the nomination. The RNC should have done everything in their power to stop him, but they did nothing. As a result, I decided that the party left me.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 12:34 pm

          Yeah the leadership is a bunch of ineffectual idiots, first they throw this red meat to the base instead of providing solutions to their problems, then are shocked that those actions led to Trump, but then don’t even try to stop him.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • TennesseeMike November 8, 2017 at 12:40 pm

            How were they going to do that? Talking Kasich into dropping out that might have done something. But Kasich wouldn’t have listened.


            TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 12:50 pm

              By 2016, it was too late. Whatever it was that could’ve been done, needed to in Fall 2015, but instead everyone was worried he’d run 3rd party, wouldn’t realize that their polling would never improve (Jeb!), or kissing his ass (Cruz). Complete mess. No wonder these people can’t pass legislation.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

              • TennesseeMike November 8, 2017 at 1:19 pm

                If many of the party higher ups didn’t push Jeb!, Trump might not have won. That’s true.


                TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 2:21 pm

              The RNC could have shot the whole Trump campaign down from the get go by insisting that all presidential candidates release their full tax returns in order to participate in the Presidential debates. Instead the RNC wanted the ratings. They wanted the spectacle and they have reaped what they sowed.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • district1 November 8, 2017 at 2:23 pm

                Bingo.


                ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

              • HS November 8, 2017 at 4:24 pm

                They also could have demanded a loyalty pledge. Or a ton of other things from Trump that he would not want to provide. Or they could demand that people be registered Republicans for a certain length of time to run. Or, they could have backed the Cruz attempt to beat him in the primary.

                But Reince Preibus did none of these things. He was a horrible leader.

                • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 5:11 pm

                  There was a loyalty pledge. It was weasels like Kasich and Jeb who decided not to back the nominee because Trump beat them.

        • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 2:49 pm

          I am a conservative and that is what made me a Republican. But lately being a conservative in the Republican Party makes me feel like a RINO. I am clearly upset with the direction the GOP has taken. Luckily for me fusion voting in NY allows me to express my discontent. This year I repeated what I did in 2016 and as a protest I refused to vote for candidates on the GOP line if they were running on a third party line as well. My protest isnt costing the GOP votes but I am sure there are others who feel like I do and are simply not voting.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • rdw72777 November 8, 2017 at 9:18 am

      Yes how’s dare they peacefully go and vote their desires. I bet they didn’t even recite the pledge of allegiance before voting.

      • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 9:47 am

        This is the equivalent of ‘all those voters are a bunch of deplorables’. Really not helpful to dwell on it.

  • Conservative First November 8, 2017 at 8:27 am

    Allentown mayor: Pawlowski wins
    http://www.mcall.com/news/local/allentown/mc-nws-allentown-mayors-race-winner-20171107-story.html

    • HS November 8, 2017 at 10:40 am

      That’s both unfortunate and embarrassing.

  • MosheM November 8, 2017 at 8:42 am

    Anti-vouchers won big in Douglas County Colorado.

    http://www.denverpost.com/2017/11/07/dougco-school-board-race-election-results/


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 9:49 am

      It is absurd to push school choice in such areas. This is pushing a solution to a problem that does not exist and just makes people wonder why you are causing discord.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 11:54 am

        Yup. Middle and upper middle class suburbanites largely love *their* public schools, and don’t want their tax dollars being diverted from them.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • GradyDem November 8, 2017 at 8:43 am

    KY politics: Filing opens in KY for 2018 today.

    What to watch:

    1) Do any other Democrats come out of the woodwork for KY-06 or is McGrath vs Thomas?
    2) Do Republicans try to take out any of the 15 remaining rural State House Dems who won in 2016?
    3) Can the Dems begin to claw their way back up in either chamber of the legislature? There are a few weak Republican incumbents, especially in the State House.

    Ronnie Ellis of CNHI News Service, who is one of the smartest Kentucky politicos says:

    “Ky Dems shouldn’t take too much comfort from VA results; VA more racially diverse, higher # college grads; lots of govt. employees in N. Va; Trump more popular in Ky … but w sexual harassment scandal, pensions they have an opportunity”

  • Republican Michigander November 8, 2017 at 8:53 am

    This was a doubleflanking to some extent. I pin most of the blame yesterday on Congress (lesser extent Trump). If they don’t wake up soon, we’ll have Pelosi and Schumer in charge. We all knew the left would turn out. Some of the partisans didn’t turn out to the same degree.

    About 6 months ago I dismissed a wave election, with one caveat. It was early. It still is, but crap needs to get done. If the US Senate does not get off its lazy ass, get its egos in check, and start passing stuff and getting it to Trump, 2018 will be a 2006/2010 type of disaster. The House needs to do its job too, but at least some stuff did pass there. Trump isn’t near the problem that Congress, and specifically the Senate is. He’s got his issues, but it dwarfs Congress….because NOTHING is getting done. Most of the base is irate about that – as well as the independents.

    The average voter isn’t that political. What they judge the most is if the powers that be have their crap together. Obviously they don’t. See ya. You’re fired. (through a combination of those voting D or those staying home because neither are worth their time)


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Chris Rawlings November 8, 2017 at 9:51 am

      It’s hard to fault a Senate that balks at the historically unpopular agenda of a historically unpopular president. If Trump was allowed to have whatever he wants you’d have revolution in the country, and that’s not an exaggeration.


      • Lucas Black November 8, 2017 at 10:00 am

        Well, let the Senate come up with some things on their own and pass them, then. Trump will take credit for anything, I don’t think he cares much what it is. But they just have totally failed.

      • Republican Michigander November 8, 2017 at 10:00 am

        “””It’s hard to fault a Senate that balks at the historically unpopular agenda of a historically unpopular president. “””

        I don’t believe in polls much, but I’ll take your work for it for argument’s sake. If this is the case, then McConnell needs to lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way. Put something on Trump’s desk. Ryan has at least passed something. Status quo right now is an Obamaesque level of failure and it’s going to cause major league damage across the country (largely by people staying home on election day)


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Chris Rawlings November 8, 2017 at 11:54 am

          What on Earth do you expect McConnell to do? His caucus doesn’t want to repeal Obamacare. America doesn’t want him to repeal Obamacare. I’m sure Mitch would like to push the Murray-Alexander comprise through and take credit for it, but the president idiotically shut it down. The Senate seats aren’t neatly gerrymandered to insulate members from the political environment as in the House. So Senators are naturally going to be more sensitive to the political winds. I understand you’re upset that the political winds don’t favor your policy preferences. But ignoring that reality gets you, well, Virginia.


          • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 12:17 pm

            The problem with this “do something, do anything” attitude is that you often get a product that is both bad policy and bad politics. (See Obamacare.) Crafting legislation is hard and it takes time . The ideal thing as far as replacing Obamacare would have been repeal and delay until 2019. And then in the meantime carefully craft a bill through regular order that would get the best policy (that is politically possible) and deal with possible unintended consequences of the bill.


            Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • lordpet8 November 8, 2017 at 1:12 pm

          I think part of the problem is that Trump has a very frosty relationship with McConnell. I don’t think I’ve seen this much animosity between a President and Senate Majority leader since Woodrow Wilson and Henry Cabot Lodge and they were from opposite parties.

          I think instead of feuding publicly they should consider to just put their differences aside and try to work together.

  • bluewahoo November 8, 2017 at 8:54 am

    Question: is this Maine Medicaid expansion actually going to go through?

    I recall two referendums in recent memory being invalidated (ranked choice voting) or simply ignored (budgetary measure).

    • Jon November 8, 2017 at 7:04 pm

      I read this morning that the legislature needs to attach a funding mechanism before it would be implemented (under the current governor)


      45, M, MO-02

      • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 7:16 pm

        And LePage said there is no way in hell will he expand Medicaid without the legislature paying for it with spending cuts (because he would never agree to a tax hike). This ain’t happening in 2018.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • GorrestFump November 8, 2017 at 9:42 am

    Lot’s more buzz about McAuliffe 2020 after tonight although even as a Va Dem I am not amused at the thought.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 9:53 am

      They should just run Hillary again or Ed Rendell if that is the plan.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Chris Rawlings November 8, 2017 at 9:59 am

        Roy Cooper, who is TMac without the Clintonian baggage. And North Carolina is a slightly more difficult state than Virginia to pick off, too, making Cooper even more impressive.


      • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 10:17 am

        LOVE Rendell! But yes, McAuliffe will probably run and struggle to top 1 percent anywhere.


        MA-7

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 1:37 pm

          I would vote for Fast Eddie in a heartbeat.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Wahoowa November 8, 2017 at 12:07 pm

        Ed Rendell would actually be a decent GE candidate. Probably couldn’t get out of the primary, though.


        CO-7

    • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 12:18 pm

      Not gonna happen, McAuliffe would probably lose to a hard left candidate. A white male could well win the D nomination, but it would have to be from the hard left.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 12:45 pm

        Joe Biden


        MA-7

        • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 1:35 pm

          He could, but he’s too old and probably not going to run.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • GOPTarHeel November 8, 2017 at 10:19 am

    Another thought about last night: it was bad, but wasn’t horrendous. No collapse in rural areas. Expected surge for Ds in educated suburban areas. High correlation with 2016 results vs. widespread desertion from the party like ’06. It should send a shiver down the spines of suburban Republicans everywhere, but this was the equivalent of a 4 point swing to Democrats. We can survive that most places.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • FiveAngels November 8, 2017 at 10:36 am

      I agree, I said last night that nothing particulary bad happened outside of Virginia (seriously, what’s the worst loss outside of VA? Nassau County CE and Fayetteville mayor? I’ll live with that). Even in Virginia, Gillespie’s performance in the mountains was great, which is a great sign for Senate races in rural WWC states.

      • edtorres04 November 8, 2017 at 10:39 am

        In the NJ Senate, did we suffer a net loss of 1 (losing 2 and picking up 1)? I think we did much worse in the house though.

        • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 12:02 pm

          Last I checked some assembly districts were close but favoring the GOP.

          Losing sd-11 is bad but really a gerrymandering loss from 2011.

          Kim G did well in Monmouth County as a whole.

      • lordpet8 November 8, 2017 at 1:18 pm

        Apart from VA and WA state senate (which I think most felt was foregone conclusion) I think the only other major win for the Dems was winning 3 out of the 4 vacant seats on the PA Superior court narrowing the GOP majority to 8-7.

        Apart from that the GOP managed to retain their justice on the state supreme court, hold on to that Utah seat and that special election in MO state senate.

        I believe Dems picked a few handful of seats in the state senate and house in GA and NJ (but I will say Dem gains were much smaller than expected).

        • w920us November 8, 2017 at 2:20 pm

          Re Pa Superior Court: Actually I believe three of the vacancies were Democratic held seats. I don’t believe a change occurred in the numbers.


          R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
          #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

          • lordpet8 November 8, 2017 at 2:50 pm

            Ah thanks for the clarification

    • jncca November 8, 2017 at 10:39 am

      It points to a very narrow GOP retention of the House in 2018 if extrapolated, I think. Dems need to win the House by about 8% to win it (some said 10, but I think with all the retirements it’s down to 8). Hillary won nationally by 2%, add in a 4% swing to Dems from that and you’re at 6%.

      Which might be the worst-case scenario for you guys for 2020 (Ryan will not be able to pass anything without D support if he has a 5-seat majority, but may be a result you’ll take considering it means no Speaker Pelosi.

      It does point to bad news for you guys in gubernatorial races, which is key going into the 2020 redistricting cycle. I don’t see how Rauner has a chance in hell, and purple states like Michigan and Florida would be extremely challenging to hold with turnout like this.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 11:51 am

        I’ll take a narrow R majority. Because a D majority doesn’t just mean Speaker Pelosi, but also a President Trump that moves considerably leftward.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 1:40 pm

      Based on the PA Supreme numbers, the Democrats would not pick up a single congressional seat in PA. The most likely outcome would be PA-8 and PA-17 changing parties.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • fzw November 8, 2017 at 1:51 pm

        As someone said last night, maybe the Supreme Court race isn’t a good barometer. Mundy did a lot better than any other Republican for state or local office across the board in suburban Philly, Luzerne County, and Lackawanna County. Maybe an incumbency bounce?


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 2:04 pm

          To put it bluntly, i think women have demonstrated a better track record in statewide judicial races than men regardless of Party.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • Republican Michigander November 8, 2017 at 2:13 pm

            Women generally do well in downticket races, period, outside of a few areas (sometimes far upper Midwest). That’s especially the case when it’s a vote for multiple people or if only one woman runs in a race with a lot of dudes. That’s not always the case, but it often is.

            One of my clients in Oakland County is (so far) the only woman running in a race with currently 3 dudes running. Do I like those odds? As long as she does what she needs to do in her campaign, yes.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 2:18 pm

          Few voters would have known Mundy is an incumbent. It’s probably more the low Philadelphia turnout.

          Her opponent was a former Steeler who did well in Allegheny.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 3:56 pm

            Arguably she underperformed in much of southwestern PA compared to Trump and Toomey.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • jncca November 8, 2017 at 10:42 am

    Posted last night but I’ll repost.

    Northam earned almost 49% of the 2-party vote in “Real Virginia.” So he did not *only* improve in NoVA. Hillary had 46.5% of the 2-party vote in “Real Virginia” but Northam did not do as well as Kaine in 2012 or Obama either time in those areas. That is likely a function of Black turnout, and I would guess Northam may have done better with Whites than any Democrat has in “Real Virginia” since Mark Warner 2008.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Indy1975a November 8, 2017 at 11:47 am

      Well “Real Virginia” has a lot of metro areas too. The Richmond area, Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News, Charlottesville, etc. It’s not a rural bastion.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • jncca November 8, 2017 at 3:40 pm

        No, but those areas are not highly educated metro areas. The point is that Dems improved by a few points outside of highly educated areas and by a lot in the highly educated areas.

        That points to flipping non-educated swing seats, plus swing and light red seats that are highly educated.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Torie November 8, 2017 at 10:49 am

    Regarding the Hudson Valley Hasids and the tensions in the hood, apparently the desire for a divorce and a town split was mutual on both sides:

    Proposal 1: Shall the town be divided to create the Town of Palm Tree and the Town of Monroe?

    Yes 8,656
    No 1,749


    65 - NY-19 (D)

    • MosheM November 8, 2017 at 1:07 pm

      Ramapo needs to be made its own County, separate of Rockland.


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 10:52 am

    In Nassau CO, NY, Dems win CE and hold on to Comptroller position but GOP County Clerk re-elected. GOP holds control of County Legislature 11 to 8. GOP loses Supervisor position for huge Town of Hempstead but retains Town of Oyster Bay GOP Supervisor.

  • Wahoowa November 8, 2017 at 10:56 am

    In the proud Colorado tradition of one-term Republican row officers who are a lock for reelection making a questionable jump into another race where they’re not even the favorite to get the nomination, Cynthia Coffman declares she’s running for governor.
    https://coloradopolitics.com/attorney-general-cynthia-coffman-join-crowded-gop-primary-governor-colorado/

    Which do you think pushed her over the edge: last night’s glorious Republican victories, or her impressive fundraising haul of less than $11K last quarter? [/sarcasm]


    CO-7

    • FiveAngels November 8, 2017 at 11:00 am

      If there’s any state that’s a lot like Virginia, it’s Colorado. Good thing Gardner won’t be on the ballot in 2018, GOP might get wiped out statewide.

      • Wahoowa November 8, 2017 at 12:19 pm

        Yeah, I was thinking about that today. The two salient differences, I think, are: (1) an urban GOP stronghold (Colorado Springs), which doesn’t exist in Virginia (Hampton Roads is similar in having a heavy military presence, but has a much larger minority population to counterbalance it) and (2) a much larger libertarian/leave me alone contingent even on the D side. But those differences are shrinking every day with all the recent in-migration. Virginia is basically Colorado seven years ahead or so.

        Luckily, we still have solid downballot GOP voting even in swingy areas (all constitutional officers except for Gov are currently Republican, all county commissioners and the DA are GOP in Jefferson County, etc.) Pueblo is also slowly turning our way, but it’s very slow and has very low population growth– there’s no way Pueblo County is going to adequately replace votes lost in Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties.


        CO-7

  • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 10:59 am

    Anyone else having new comments not marked in blue when checking the threads this morning?

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 11:05 am

    In large Erie Co. NY (Buffalo and suburbs) the GOP holds onto 3 county wide positions: Sheriff, Comptroller and County Clerk. But GOP narrowly loses control of county legislature 6 to 5.

  • cer November 8, 2017 at 11:13 am

    VA HOD update:

    “FFX Co Canvass flips narrow lead from Donte Tanner to GOP incumbent Tim Hugo. Hugo picks up 100 votes but canvass continues”

    https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/928293396493623299


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • freego November 8, 2017 at 11:35 am

    Roy Moore maintains his 11 point lead over Jones in a brand new Raycom News Network Senate Election poll conducted by Strategy Research.

    Moore 51% (N/A)
    Jones 40% (N/A)
    Undecided 9%

    Looks like the race has remained somewhat static, even with all of the political noise recently, which is good news for Moore.

    http://www.wbrc.com/story/36789878/exclusive-moore-maintains-11-point-edge-over-jones-in-new-poll#.WgMUZ73IHAk.twitter


    24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

    • TennesseeMike November 8, 2017 at 12:37 pm

      Yeah, the Virginia results shouldn’t have much effect on this race. This is Alabama, not Virginia. And as I said last night most states doesn’t have a bunch of liberal federal government workers with an absolute visceral hatred of Trump.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • andyroo312 November 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm

        Indeed, there aren’t enough white liberals in Alabama for Jones to prevail. That said, I am curious to see if Jones can hold Moore to a high single-digit victory – pretty pathetic for a Republican here.


        MA-7

        • cer November 8, 2017 at 12:49 pm

          For Moore that would actually be a solid win for him. Moore just needs to be really careful and not do something dumb before election day.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 3:04 pm

            Well then they better lock him in a closet and throw away the key until election day.

      • cer November 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm

        Moore should go on to comfortably win that Senate race.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

    • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 12:45 pm

      I think Moore ends up winning by 5-10. Hopefully, he won’t use his new platform to spew a bunch of controversial statements.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    I’m curious to see how the gubernatorial and legislative voting went by congressional district. I tend to like legislative numbers best because they’re legislature to legislature and don’t depend on particular candidates, although there are sometimes unopposed races in them. I’d guess, however, that most unopposed races would be in non-competitive congressional districts. Anyone have those numbers?

    • cer November 8, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      Can’t believe how badly the VA GOP dropped the ball on those HOD races!


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 1:26 pm

        Not nearly as much as you think. Gillespie has 16% more votes than Cuccinelli got with votes still to be counted. Gillespie didn’t lose because voters didn’t turn out for him. He lost because Ralph Northam has 31% more votes than Terry McAuliffe got in 2013. The Virginia GOP turned out their voters. Democrats did a better job. In 2013 McAuliffe got 54% of Barack Obama’s 2012 total while Cuccinelli got 56% of Romney. Northam got 71% of Clinton, but Gillespie got 66% of Trump’s total.

        This is a silver lining for Republicans. They didn’t lose because they didn’t vote. They lost because Democrats were more enthusiastic. If one party is enthusiastic and the other isn’t, that party has no hope. If one is enthusiastic and the other is more enthusiastic, there is hope.

        Also, Clinton won 15 of the 16 districts Democrats are leading in and narrowly lost the 16th. Democrats can be encouraged that they’ll beat Republicans in the suburbs but there aren’t enough of them nationwide to flip the House. They also have to worry about their representatives in Trump districts. Republicans did well in Trump districts yesterday. So we could see some of them flip. Democrats could have a big night in 2018 and still pick up only 12-18 seats.

  • bluewahoo November 8, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    100 more votes were found for Hugo (R) in the HD40 vote canvass in VA. Tie or 51-49 GOP majority is looking more and more likely.

  • district1 November 8, 2017 at 2:22 pm

    NJEA spinning like a top about its pathetic attempt to take out Steve Sweeney.

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/njea_failed_bid_to_defeat_steve_sweeney_electrifie.html

    “”While NJEA-endorsed candidate Fran Grenier fell short in his race against incumbent Senate President Steve Sweeney, his insurgent campaign electrified New Jersey politics and energized NJEA members, who remain determined to endorse and campaign for pro-public education candidates regardless of party affiliation.” LOL.

    That said, this might end up being water under the bridge now that the union has an ally in the governor’s office. It would be very New Jersey to see the NJEA president and Sweeney on the same stage supporting some education bill in a few weeks.


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • shamlet November 8, 2017 at 2:29 pm

      Gotta think Sweeney will be deported to DC in a couple months once Norcross gets the Senate seat. Then Sacco gets the Senate Pres as a Hudson/Norcross swap of Senate Presidency and the Menendez seat.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 3:47 pm

        Would Sweeney refuse? Being a US Senator sounds nice but he would have no power.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • shamlet November 8, 2017 at 4:48 pm

          Rep for NJ-1. When the alternative is probably being a backbench State Senator it’s probably an offer he can’t refuse.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet November 8, 2017 at 2:33 pm

    Juror in Menendez trial asks judge what a Senator is. Seriously. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/11/07/juror-asks-judge-in-menendez-corruption-trial-what-is-senator.html


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 3:02 pm

      In the future Justice was not only blind but had become rather retarded.
      https://youtu.be/Oxt7q4YeZZE


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • pstchrisp November 8, 2017 at 3:21 pm

      It was actually a halfway reasonable question because the defense kept saying that Menendez could have done more in his official role as a US Senator, but he did not, which should prove that he wasn’t guilty. The jury wanted to know what he could have done in his role as a Senator that he apparently didn’t do, and whether that really was something that would be unusual for a Senator to do or not do.
      I think this article explains it a little better: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/deliberating_jury_in_sen_menendez_trial_asks_for_t.html

  • prsteve11 November 8, 2017 at 2:34 pm

    I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and relax about the results last night. I was excited about Gillespie pulling off an upset, but I kept reminding myself that this was Virginia we’re talking about. It’s high time we were all honest with ourselves and admit that Virginia is now a Democratic state (and a somewhat liberal one at that). It’s not a purple state or a light blue state – it’s a higher-educated blue state and increasingly so. And guess what, Dem states usually elect Dem governors. Some pundits have tried to say that Virginia is a microcosm of America as a whole, but I don’t buy that at all. The state voted for Hillary by more than 5 points but exit polls show that margin would have expanded significantly in a 2-way race. And as for the HoD, consider that Hillary won a majority of the delegate seats so it’s no great surprise that the Dems made substantial gains.

    Further down the ballot, Fairfax and Herring won solid but not overwhelming victories. In New Jersey, I think even Dems are wondering how the LG of the staggeringly unpopular Chris Christie did as well as she did in a heavily Dem state.

    Am I saying this election means nothing? No. But I believe people are strongly over-hyping what happened in VA.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • krazen1211 November 8, 2017 at 3:09 pm

      Hillary + 2 correlates pretty well with the HOD results. That makes the House dicey but means major gains for us in the Senate.

    • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      Yeah last night two blue states elected Dem Govs, so it is not earthshattering; Va, with its many high turn out affluent liberal whites has moved the state into the blue column. The 50/50 split in the HoD was unexpected but if the state is turning blue Dem power in the legislature is not surprising (unless the Va GOP can come up with various schemes to maintain control like the NY GOP in the State Senate).

      • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 3:27 pm

        You mean like having all the Democrats in VA pack themselves into a geographically compact city in D+90 districts while all the Republicans spread themselves out into geographically diverse R+2 areas?


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 5:52 pm

          Or maybe the Repubs could encourage some Va legislature Dems to form their very own breakaway IDC branch (well that’s probably too much of a NY thing though).

          By the way the NY State Senate will now look this come Jan 2018: Repub Conference (including Felder) 32, Mainstream Dems 21, IDC Dems 8, vacancies 2 (both seats were held by mainstream Dems). Repubs will likely strongly contest Dem Latimer’s soon to be vacant competitive Westchester seat when a special election is held.

          • Wahoowa November 8, 2017 at 7:56 pm

            There’s actually precedent in Virginia. IIRC, Virgil Goode (when he was a Dem state legislator) and some allies forced a power sharing agreement in one of the houses that way in the 90s.


            CO-7

    • district1 November 8, 2017 at 3:42 pm

      “In New Jersey, I think even Dems are wondering how the LG of the staggeringly unpopular Chris Christie did as well as she did in a heavily Dem state. ”

      I doubt it. Republicans perform this way statewide pretty much every election regardless of the circumstance. 2009 and 2013 Christie are the obvious exceptions.

      2017 – 42%
      2016 – 42%
      2014 – 42%
      2013 – 60%
      2012 – 41%, 40%
      2009 – 49%
      2008 – 41%, 42%
      2006 – 44%
      2005 – 43%
      2004 – 46%
      2002 – 44%
      2001 – 42%
      2000 – 40%


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • pstchrisp November 8, 2017 at 3:49 pm

        2000 was 47%. I remember that night very well…

        • district1 November 8, 2017 at 5:45 pm

          Thanks, 40% was Bush and 47% was Franks. I didn’t realize Corzine’s election was so close!


          ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • californianintexas November 8, 2017 at 4:19 pm

        Yeah, it seems Republicans in NJ have a rock-solid base of 40%.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 3:52 pm

      I haven’t been wondering at all about NJ. That turned out exactly as I expected. The only thing I’ve been wondering about is why VA HoD predictions were so out of sync with statewide predictions, but I was wondering about that even before the election.


      Dem NC-11

  • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 2:45 pm

    I’m seeing on Twitter that Bernie supporters are very upset that Donna Brazile’s book didn’t cause Ralph Northam to lose, and also think the establishment should bow down to Lee Carter after his win….

    also, this…

    Matthew Isbell
    @mcimaps
    Would like to note that Vincent Fort, who Sanders campaigned for in Atlanta INSTEAD of #VAGov… came in 5th place tonight. No shock… Sanders got crushed in Atlanta in 2016. Yeah… rubbing it in.

    • district1 November 8, 2017 at 3:02 pm

      Who would have thought, people who aren’t Democrats don’t care about the Democratic Party.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • HS November 8, 2017 at 8:35 pm

        Which brings up a good point about Sanders – the Democrats shouldn’t have allowed him to run as a Democrat. One of the basic purposes of a party is to get their own party member in the office. Sanders switched to their party to run very recently (and later switched back), and it was obvious he wasn’t sincere. They and the Republicans probably should require the candidates running to be a party member for some time. (Trump also is a convert, although he switched in 2011, if I remember correctly.)

        I honestly don’t see why either party would allow this to happen. What, there were no crazed socialist Democrats who could run for President?

  • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 3:17 pm

    Last night’s New Jersey results show what a bulletproof incumbent protection gerrymander the state legislative maps are. There was a 18 point swing at the top of the ticket and downballot there was barely a 1 seat change in the legislature. The map makes coattails impossible.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • pstchrisp November 8, 2017 at 3:26 pm

      A 18-20 point Kim loss could have resulted in 4-6 more GOP Senators losing (2, 16, 25, 26, 39, 40) and maybe another 8 Assemblymen. It was close.

      • fzw November 8, 2017 at 3:48 pm

        District 8 was much closer than 39 and 40 ended up being.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

  • bluewahoo November 8, 2017 at 3:39 pm

    Here’s VA gov results by congressional district

    https://vpap-production.s3.amazonaws.com/media/visuals/infographic_images/Congressional-District-Performance-Gov.jpg

    • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 4:30 pm

      So, Comstock for Senate? 56-43 is a tough row to hoe.

      • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 4:40 pm

        Comstock would be better off running for re-election in 2018 and if she loses run for Senate in 2020 vs Warner.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Izengabe November 8, 2017 at 4:39 pm

      Scott Taylor might also want to worry a little bit and start raising tons of cash.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 3:53 pm

    I just skimmed the Va. House of Delegates results and there are 4 districts where the GOP lead is under 200: #27+124 GOP,#28+86GOP,#40+115GOP,#94+12GOP. The closest race for a Dem leading I could find was district #68, where the Dem had a 326 vote lead, which is likely safe. So the GOP could have a 51-49 lead in the HoD if all goes right but watch out for the accepted provisional ballots that usually lean Dem; I have no idea how many there are.

    If the Dems fall just short of control in the HoD, just like the situation in the Senate, it is more of a problem for Northam (I almost typed in Norcross – can’t mix NJ and Va). To get legislation passed now he will have to pry at least one Repub loose in the Senate (Lt Gov breaks tie) or one or two in the HoD ( depending on the final vote count) to get a majority. He wants things like a $15 minimum wage and Medicaid expansion but it won’t be easy to find Repubs who will go along with that.

  • jncca November 8, 2017 at 3:58 pm

    Here is my new list of the 20 most vulnerable House Republicans. In a wave they all lose. Of course we don’t know that there will be a wave at this point. They are not in order.

    Open FL-27 (IRL)
    Valadao
    Royce
    Walters
    Rohrabacher
    Issa
    Hurd
    Paulsen
    Lance
    Culberson
    Sessions
    Comstock
    Open WA-8
    Roskam
    Coffman
    Open AZ-2 (assuming it’s open)
    Curbelo
    Open MI-11
    Frelinghuysen
    Handel

    I would rank at least ten of those Tilt Dem right now.

    The next set would be in a large-wave:
    J. Lewis
    Open NJ-2
    Open PA-15
    S. Taylor
    Knight (assuming a Repub makes top two in CA)
    Katko
    Costello
    Meehan
    Denham (assuming a Repu makes top two in CA)
    Fitzpatrick
    Yoder


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 4:09 pm

      I think Denham and Yoder are FAR more vulnerable than Valadao and Curbelo.

      Valadao and Curbelo aren’t really in the #resistance areas. Those areas were bad for Trump because of immigration. And those two are very pro-immigration

      Meanwhile, I thing Yoder and Denham are in serious trouble. I think Yoder is gone even with no wave. And Denham is in serious trouble.

      I also don’t think Culberson is in much trouble at all, and Sessions is probably not in huge trouble. I’d put those at lean/likely R.

      But I also think Mia Love, who is not on your list, is in huge trouble. In fact, I’d put that lean D.


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • cer November 8, 2017 at 4:10 pm

        Yoder will win his seat quite easily.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • cer November 8, 2017 at 4:16 pm

          WATERS is also in NO danger to lose her seat.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 4:26 pm

          Yoder seat voted for HRC and Democrats are likely to overperform in Kansas state races next year (not saying they’ll win). Not sure how you are so certain about Yoder’s fate.

    • fzw November 8, 2017 at 4:11 pm

      Judging by how well he did in his Senate district last night, I don’t know how you could call Van Drew anything but the favorite for a bluer, open NJ-2


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • pstchrisp November 8, 2017 at 5:32 pm

        His only problem is Atlantic County doesn’t really know him. That’s why the GOP needs to run Levinson or Brown. They get crossover support in Atlantic City and the outskirts. Against either strong Atlantic County pol, it’s a toss up. If the GOP goes for someone in Van Drew’s district, then it’s advantage Jeff. Maybe Lonegan come back down again.. . .

        • fzw November 8, 2017 at 6:40 pm

          It looks clear that Van Drew has Democratic God-like status in the red anchor of the district. Without that Cape May base, I doubt any non-LoBiondo Republican could stop him even in a 2014 or 2016-like environment


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

    • MikeFL November 8, 2017 at 4:15 pm

      I think NJ-2 might fall before a couple of those in your top 20 in a wave.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 5:16 pm

        I concur. I would consider moving it to Lean Democrat at this point. Van Drew is a shoe-in if he runs.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • jncca November 8, 2017 at 6:54 pm

        I forgot about Van Drew. Drew up the list quickly.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 5:13 pm

      I might consider moving all the Pennsylvania seats out of the next set (except PA-8) due as follows:

      PA-6: The Democrats got slaughtered worse in the western half of the district compared to the Republican slaughter in the eastern half. In addition, the Republican were primarily slaughtered where seats were open and where the Mariner pipelines are a huge issue.

      PA-7: Same as PA-6, but a little less certain.

      PA-15: The Democrats got murdered in the western half of the seat.

      Right now I rank the potential of a seat falling as follows: PA-8, PA-17, PA-15, PA-7, PA-6, and PA-16. I list PA-17 as the Democrats almost lost freaking Scranton and Luzerne and Lackawanna were terrible by municipal election standards.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 7:22 pm

      Last night we had a wave and the results aren’t that encouraging for Democrats to win control of the House. They won districts Clinton won by won only one Trump district and that was a small Trump victory. There are 23 Republican seats that Clinton won. It seems unlikely they’ll win all of them but if Democrats do, and lose no seats, they’ll fall short of a majority. And I don’t think they’ll lose no seats. Here is a comparison of Clinton v. Northam margins:

      1: Trump +12, Gillespie +10
      2: Trump +3, Northam +4
      3: Clinton +32, Northam +37
      4: Clinton +22, Northam +25
      5: Trump +11, Gillespie +9
      6: Trump +25, Gillespie +22
      7: Trump +6, Gillespie +4
      8: Clinton +53, Northam +53
      9: Trump +41, Gillespie +37
      10: Clinton +10, Northam +12
      11: Clinton +39, Northam +41

      Except in VA-2, Northam ran almost universally 2-4 points ahead of Clinton. Democrats can’t take the House that way because Clinton only won 205 districts. Even in a wave I can’t see Democrats holding all the Trump districts. Trump voters stuck with Gillespie.

      • cer November 8, 2017 at 7:35 pm

        LCL, what seats do you think that Democrats should be concerned about!?


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 7:47 pm

          The most vulnerable to me would be MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, and PA-17. These are very Trumpy areas. Republicans weren’t expected to contest them in 2016 and did very well congressionally. I’d also watch IA-2, NV-3, and NJ-5. Democrats can’t afford any retirements in districts Trump won. I was skeptical about a realignment but one might be happening.

          Fortunately for Democrats trading working class whites for college educated suburban whites will net them more seats. Unfortunately, it won’t net them enough for a majority. They can’t be Clinton with working class whites. They need to be Obama.

          • cer November 8, 2017 at 7:51 pm

            GOP needs to do a much better job with those educated white sub voters. I hope that they can.

            I’m now going to look up how the GOP candidates did in those districts in 2016 again. 🙂


            Conservative first, Republican second!

      • fzw November 8, 2017 at 7:59 pm

        yes because gubernatorial races are entirely predictive of Congressional races. Just ask all the Republicans sitting in districts won by Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan and Democrats sitting in districts that JBE won.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 8, 2017 at 9:46 pm

          Sometimes they are sometimes they aren’t. Democrats only won one legislative district Trump won and he won that by less than a point. So the legislative numbers tracked closely with Trump-Clinton.

          • fzw November 8, 2017 at 9:56 pm

            85 was the only seriously contested Trump seat though. All the others were ridiculously out of reach and they still came close or dramatically outperformed Clinton in some very red territory.


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

  • cer November 8, 2017 at 4:09 pm

    Rand Paul update from Rand Paul. “I appreciate all of the support from everyone. A medical update: final report indicates six broken ribs & new X-ray shows a pleural effusion”

    https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/928358296267960326


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 4:12 pm

    In Suffolk County NY, besides winning the DA race (previous DA was also Dem) the Dems appear likely to take the close Sheriff race also, where Dem-Conservative Toulon has about a 1300 vote lead over Repub Zacarese with 100% of precincts reporting. The post had been held by a Conservative who retired and ran with both Dem and Repub support. Toulon won by getting more than 17,000 Conservative votes. Dems kept control of the county legislature by a 11-7 margin, but they lost their “supermajority” in the county legislature. Repubs switched control of the Supervisor position for the large Town of Huntington, with GOP Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci the winner.

  • jocallag November 8, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    Comparing 2017 precinct results to 2016 in Va is misleading because Va election officials refuse to include the absentee vote in the precinct results. In Arlington county over 37000 voters voted absentee in 2016 compared to 12000 in 2017. Actually Northam received only 68000 compared to Hillary s 92000 in the total Arlington county vote. Gillespie had 16000 to Trump s 20000

  • GorrestFump November 8, 2017 at 5:23 pm

    Hmm Justin Fairfax seems to have done the best out of all three Dem candidates in SWVA, they all did pretty terribly there but he did a few points better than Northam/Herring.

    https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/928297481309433856

    • jncca November 8, 2017 at 6:55 pm

      Could be because he has a Y chromosome. Might not be, but that’s a possible reason.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 7:34 pm

        I think you’re right

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    So in special state legislature elections Tuesday, Dems picked up 4 seats: 2 in Ga, 1 in NH and 1 in Washington. Add this to the 8 the Dems had previously picked up (3 Okla, 3 NH, 1 NY, 1 Fla) and Dems have picked up 12 special election state legislature seats so far since the Nov 2016 election. The Repubs have only picked up 1 in La.

    • cer November 8, 2017 at 5:38 pm

      Republicans really blew it in at least one of those districts in GA because of a very divisive GOP field.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 5:45 pm

        You’re talking about GA Senate District 6 in Atlanta. That’s not one of the D pickups, yet. Two Democrats advanced to the Dec 5 runoff.

        The two seats that flipped in GA yesterday are House Districts 117 and 119, both in Athens. Democrats won those two outright. For what it’s worth, the Donald won them by 4 and 7 last year.


        Dem NC-11

        • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 6:03 pm

          How is that not considered a pickup? One of the Dems could switch parties?

          • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 6:08 pm

            Well, it is, and that’s of course how it’s being reported, but Manhatlibertarian clearly wasn’t counting it, presumably pending the runoff, and so cer’s response didn’t apply.


            Dem NC-11

  • Boehnerwasright November 8, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    After digesting the election results from tuesday some thought on Virgina.

    1)
    Dems nearly winning the HoD in VA (looks like 51R-49D for now but that could change) is the biggest story for me. Next to nobody including myself saw it coming. A greedy gerrymander played a role as 4-5 more dem votesinks would have made the map look quite a bit better. Aiming for a vulnerable 2/3 majority was even unnecessary in 2012 as the the dem senate was drawing their own gerrymander and a 2/3 majority in the state senate was never in the cards for republicans.
    Would really like to see an insider account of how the VA-GOP and HoD incumbent ran their campaign and what can be learned from that. How much did they coordinate with Gillespie; on what topics did they run and how was the whole Trump topic approached?

    2) Polling is still a mess and once again a seemingling outlier poll in Quinnipiac nailed the Virgina race and was very close in NJ. A lot of people dismissed Q and some even wanted to ignore Q totally. Outliers are normal and make the polling average better. Predicting which way the polls are off is once again proven as a bad idea.
    Just looking at fundamentals would have made a better prediction then looking at the polling average. The Virgina econemy and state budget look good, McAuliff was popular and Northam was a moderate(at least in apperances not necessarly in his policy positions) with a biography straight out of dem central casting. Dems were energized in special elections and was Trump was around 38-40% approval. Virgina as a blue trending state was also an advantage for Northam.
    I feel many poster myself included lost sight of how much the fundamentals favoured Northam. I feel like the Latino Victory fund ad, sanctuary cities or the affair around Fairfax missing on some campaign lit was way overblown.
    The last minute Gillespie surge looks a lot like mirage. Likely the underlying data changed little while partisan pollster, pollsters herding and media narative made the race look closer then it really was. Northam having the best margin of all 3 statewide dems running hints at northam not being a bad candidate.

    While Northam screwed up the whole sanctuary city issue, he otherwise gave Gillespie very little effective attack angles as he rode his fundamentals to a convincing victory.
    While not being able to prove it, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gillespie chose to focus on momuments, sanctuary cities and other cultural war topics simply he knew he would lose with a normal republican campaign and he choose to run a risky campaign to have a shot at a upset.

    3) Even as Northam looked on paper like a good fit for rural virgina he lost by close to trump margins, the stampede of rural areas towards the GOP doesn’t seem to stop. Good news for the senate races in ND+WV in 2018.
    On the other hand Gillespie had the profile of a republican who had a shot at the surburban vote like he did in 2014 against Warner. He did even worse then Trump in many suburban counties which I didn’t think was possible. Barbara Comstock should be very very worried for her political survival in 2018.

    • GoBigRedState November 8, 2017 at 6:13 pm

      Yes, Quinnipiac nailed the final margin. But that was also down considerably from the 17 point win for Northam they had less than a week before. Much of the criticism came from that one poll. 9 points was an outlier compared to other polls, but it at least seemed credible, unlike the poll showing him up by 17 points. Something changed in that time-either they changed something or Northam was headed for a blowout win a couple of weeks ago, and Gillespie made it somewhat respectable in the last couple of weeks. I really doubt that Northam ever was headed for a win that big.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

      • Boehnerwasright November 8, 2017 at 6:35 pm

        I agree with you that Northan was never up 17, but I feel like people way underestimate the possibility of such a result by a good pollster through random chance. The MoE especially in off year election with uncertain turnout is huge and such outliers are to expected in both directions.

        But even as the +17 poll was likely wrong including it in the average was making the average more realistic as other pollsters were understimating Northam. Q is a mainstream pollster with average to good results in the pasts, so they should be given the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing and the result is simple varianz and not them doing a bad polling job.

      • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 7:16 pm

        Well as I recall Clinton got about a 3.3% average lead in the final RCP poll average and she actually got a 2.1% lead which wasn’t too far off. Now in Virginia, Northam was also up 3.3 but in the end he had a 9 point lead, quite a difference. And it wasn’t just GOP oriented pollsters that hovered near 3% in their final polls. So clearly their turnout models were off. Northam wasn’t a terrible candidate but he wasn’t that great either; he was bland and several times talked out of both sides of his mouth on issues. But IMO he became the anti-Trump in the eyes of many liberal Dems, so they didn’t really care if he wasn’t very charismatic or he waffled on key issues. A vote for Northam would be seen in the MSM as a vote against Trump; that’s what really counted to them and drove them to turn out in high numbers.

      • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 7:38 pm

        I think it’s possible that Northam was headed for a blowout. Others have pointed out that Ed Gillespie got more votes than himself (as a senate candidate), Ken Cuccinelli and Bob McDonnell. So Republicans were clearly energized at past midterm levels. Democrats were more energized. But it’s possible that Republicans weren’t energized until the LVF ad and Northam was headed for a mid-10s win.

    • Jon November 8, 2017 at 7:10 pm

      1) Don’t forget the map lasted this long; even if you could go back in time and tell them for a fact it would drop several seats in Nov 17 they’d probably prefer having the super majority in the house for the previous part of the decade.
      Plus the map would likely have held up in the alternate universe where Bernie won the D primary and general election in 2016.


      45, M, MO-02

      • Boehnerwasright November 8, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        But what did this super majority got the republicans a smaller majority could have not gotten?

        • LtNOWIS November 8, 2017 at 8:34 pm

          More slots on the house committees. More Republicans and fewer Democrats building political careers that would allow them to run for other things in the future.


          28, VA-11

          • Jon November 8, 2017 at 11:35 pm

            Easier ability to override vetoes; stronger position for budget fights with the current Governor. On some issues less risk of one or two Republicans siding with Democrats allowing the current D Governor to get something he wants passed without getting something in return.

            For 2015 & 2019 Democrats continuing to have a weaker bench for any open State Senate seats.


            45, M, MO-02

            • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 11:46 pm

              In case anyone’s wondering, there are 4 GOP-held VA Senate seats that were won by HRC: 7, 10, 12, 13.


              Dem NC-11

              • fzw November 8, 2017 at 11:52 pm

                There’s about a 99% chance Dems win the Senate in 2019.


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

                • Jon November 10, 2017 at 11:14 am

                  The other moving pieces before assigning probability numbers:

                  Most important: More precise PVI numbers on each of these seats.
                  Second: Which of 7, 10, 12, 13 will be open due to term limits and/or incumbent not seeking reelection
                  Third: Which (if any) of them have a current D state representative seeking to become a state senator and how long has each of them been a state representative.


                  45, M, MO-02

    • prsteve11 November 8, 2017 at 7:21 pm

      Some very good points there. Greedy gerrymanders can blow up in one’s face. Just ask the Illinois and Georgia Dems. You also make some very valid points on Northam’s built-in advantages. The economy was good, McAullife was popular, etc. Add to that the fact that Virginia is now a full-blown blue state and you have a Dem governor winning easily. In hindsight, I see that Gillespie was not actually as good of a candidate as I originally thought. His focus on wedge issues was probably more of a sign of desperation than anything else. In the end, exit polls showed that more Virginians thought he was unfair in attacking Northam than the other way around. To be sure, it was a bad night for the GOP in VA but trying to extrapolate that to the whole nation is a stretch. Plus, how does this help the Dems in trying to settle the centrists vs Sanders war in the Dem party? Earlier, other people sort of mocked me for it, but I also pointed out that NJ actually didn’t go nearly as bad as it could have. I thought Guadagno did fairly well, considering she was trailing 2 to 1 not long ago.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • district1 November 8, 2017 at 7:34 pm

      +17 is far beyond what we should expect for normal variability from a top pollster.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • Boehnerwasright November 8, 2017 at 7:45 pm

        If the race was at around +9 for Northam a +17 poll is about as wrong as a poll showing Northam at +1. Why are we not bashing pollster showing Northam narrowly up just the same as some people here did for Q?

        • district1 November 8, 2017 at 8:01 pm

          I don’t think anyone is giving credit to pollsters who had Northam +1. The issue is Quinnipiac taking credit for being “the only ones” with the right answer when they were just as far off as the people with egg on their faces themselves, 2 weeks before they happened to be right.

          More heuristically, we can use common sense to consider that it’s plausible, even likely, that the true standing of the campaign was in the low single digits at some point. It’s not plausible that it was ever +17.


          ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/11/07/california-naacp-seeks-to-remove-star-spangled-banner-as-national-anthem.html

    California NAACP seeks to remove star spangled banner as National Anthem, calls it “racist”.

    Says it’s “not meant to disrespect the military”. I guess that’s all you have to do these days to not be disrespectful huh? Call what you’re “protesting” (more like throwing a hissy fit against) “racist” and say you don’t mean to disrespect the military.

    The GOP should run hard on this. Because these people actually hate America. Mr. Kaepernick stated the reason for his protest was that he wouldn’t stand for America because it was a horrible racist country. These people actually hate America. Run campaigns saying “an organization that endorsed x democrat (NAACP endorses every Democrat) wants to remove our national anthem. Save our national anthem from the left” in California. Calling America a horrible racist country is not popular with voters


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • jncca November 8, 2017 at 6:58 pm

      I agree it is unpopular, but voters see through the “random group with little power endorsed Dem so Dem must agree with them!” (voters see through it with the GOP too, as many on the right like to remind us).

      Unless a Dem actually came out for this, it would have the same result as the attacks on Northam.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • district1 November 8, 2017 at 6:59 pm

        It gets great ratings though.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 8:45 pm

          It sows disunity, but it gets great ratings.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Boehnerwasright November 8, 2017 at 6:58 pm

      Ask Gillespie how well this kind of campaign worked for him. Trying to run against minor groups that are not directly affilated with the parties rarely works, ask how well running against birthers/some tea party organizations worked for dems.

      • fzw November 8, 2017 at 7:02 pm

        Yeah, suggesting that your opponent is soft on child rapists and supports gangs always struck me as having more potential to backfire, and I posted that exact same thought here a month or two ago. And look who did the worst of the statewide candidates. Bqhatevwr


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

      • district1 November 8, 2017 at 7:03 pm

        Turning the above rant into something electoral, a campaign focused on that kind of messaging might actually work in Trumpy areas, when delivered by a candidate who can credibly make that argument.

        However Trumpy areas alone are not enough to keep the House.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • HoneyBee November 8, 2017 at 7:06 pm

          What the GOP should do in California is pressure the Democrat hard. Ask them over and over again whether they support the NAACP’s push to remove the national anthem. If they do then they’re gonna piss off their SJW base.


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • district1 November 8, 2017 at 7:11 pm

            Suburban swing districts in California, which are even more liberal than Virginia, are just about the last places you should want to try this.

            There is no appreciable “SJW base” in suburban swing districts. There is a large base of PO’ed mainstream Democrats and disaffected former Republicans who need little encouragement to turn out to vote.

            Anyone who gets riled up by the national anthem being racist is not a Democrat, they’re a far leftist who is an unreliable vote for the Democratic candidate in the best of circumstances. And again, the proportion of the voting population in swing districts made up by this group is basically nil. Heck, even in Berkeley these people make up a loud but small minority.


            ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

          • Boehnerwasright November 8, 2017 at 7:16 pm

            Ask Northam how many votes it cost him from the dem base having voted for Bush 2 times, being against sanctuary cities and distancing himself from the LVF ad. For some reason even being shunned by some progressive national groups lead to him getting insane margins in dem strongholds…

            Dems will simply ignore the question or distance themselves and nobody will care. Not the media nor the base.

            • district1 November 8, 2017 at 7:23 pm

              There seems to be confusion about what the Democratic base is. SJW liberal activists are not the Democratic base. They are the Green Party and Bernie base.

              As of 2015 less than half of Democrats described themselves as liberal. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/10/12/5-facts-about-democrats/

              Angering far-left activists will not hurt any congressional candidate in a swing district. In fact it is likely to help.


              ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

              • segmentation_fault November 8, 2017 at 7:43 pm

                The term “SJW” has lost all meaning on this site. From what I gather when it’s used here it just means liberal person who is not a white man.

                • fzw November 8, 2017 at 7:52 pm

                  Really? I was under the impression that when people on here overuse the term that it refers to white liberals. Minorities don’t really seem to fit your typical SJW wokeness profile, aside from BLM.


                  Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                  R-leaning Indy.

                • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 7:55 pm

                  No that is not what I mean when I use the term SJW nor is it what I think most people on this site mean. A SJW can be of any color and many are white. They view the US as a bad racist, sexist, repressive society etc. which must be purged of these bad values. They are obsessed with being seen as politically correct. I wouldn’t say all liberals are SJW types.

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 8:49 pm

                    I would go as far as saying that most white liberals are not even SJW types. I have only met a few of these types in the flesh. Most white liberals I know actually would be considered moderates 40 years ago. Most white liberals I know don’t even advocate single-payer.


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                    • fzw November 8, 2017 at 9:00 pm

                      Oh, I agree with this. My comment above is simply that this seems to be the stereotype of an SJW. A white, well-off latte liberal


                      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                      R-leaning Indy.

    • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 7:35 pm

      What in the standard version of the Star Spangled Banner we sing makes it a horrible, racist pro slavery song? The words are about the bombardment of Ft. McHenry by the British during the War of 1812 and how the fort held out and didn’t surrender and pull down the flag. What about it makes it a pro slavery song?

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2017 at 8:51 pm

        The British were very happy to free slaves and give refuge.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 10:57 pm

        I can’t tell whether or not you’re acknowledging the third verse, since it’s rarely sung anymore, but that’s the issue. It refers to the black slave Colonial Marines that joined the British Army in exchange for freedom. To be clear, I’m just posting this in the off-chance that you don’t know about it. I don’t support dropping the Star-Spangled Banner. No one will cry for the third verse. Just ditch it and move on.

        And where is that band who so vauntingly swore,
        That the havoc of war and the battle’s confusion
        A home and a Country should leave us no more?
        Their blood has wash’d out their foul footstep’s pollution.
        No refuge could save the hireling and slave
        From the terror of flight or the gloom of the grave,
        And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
        O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave.


        Dem NC-11

        • Jon November 8, 2017 at 11:45 pm

          For that matter, I’ve never heard anything other than first verse sung.

          It seems though that Oliver Holmes back in 1861 took the opposite approach by adding a 5th verse that’s very much anti CSA.

          When our land is illumined with Liberty’s smile,
          If a foe from within strike a blow at her glory,
          Down, down with the traitor that dares to defile
          The flag of her stars and the page of her story!
          By the millions unchained who our birthright have gained,
          We will keep her bright blazon forever unstained!
          And the Star-Spangled Banner in triumph shall wave
          While the land of the free is the home of the brave.


          45, M, MO-02

      • roguemapper November 8, 2017 at 11:01 pm

        PS. Francis Scott Key was just bitter that his unit got their asses kicked by a battalion of Colonial Marines at the Battle of Bladensburg three weeks before Fort McHenry.


        Dem NC-11

  • StatenIslandTest November 8, 2017 at 7:38 pm

    NJ-Sen: Piscopo considering. Prob need someone like this to make it at all interesting:
    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/now_joe_piscopo_may_set_his_sights_on_washington.html


    31, Jersey City

    • Izengabe November 9, 2017 at 10:32 am

      This would be in keeping with the zeitgeist of our times. Will it be Piscopo/Caitlyn Jenner vs President Kanye in 2024 or Jenner/Piscopo?


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian November 8, 2017 at 8:11 pm

    What also is interesting when you think about it is that we kept thinking NJ is the race where the Dems totally crush the Repub for Gov by a huge margin and Va was going to be a close race. In the end in NJ the Dem won by 13 points and in Va by 9 points – not really that great a difference. Here the CW was wrong.

  • Conservative First November 8, 2017 at 9:36 pm

    Lots of good charts from Patrick Ruffini on Virginia:
    https://www.redstate.com/streiff/2017/11/08/surprise-key-democrat-virginia-win/

    • OGGoldy November 8, 2017 at 10:05 pm

      As a person that does statistical analysis in Minitab multiple times a day, this presentation of data is both incredibly rudimentary to the point of meaninglessness, and the “correlation” is poor. First of all, he gives a number of .105 and calls it a correlation. He doesn’t specify what number that actually is, ppk, cpk, R² etc. And no matter which of the aforementioned numbers he is using, a number that low is what would be considered out of control at best, and uncorrelated at worst. He doesn’t even cite distribution curves for his data, which further render his “correlation” number meaningless, as I doubt he even fit his data to the proper plot in the first place. It’s pretty clear this person threw numbers in Excel and said “See, look” without knowing anything beyond that. The next Nate Silver he is not.

  • cer November 8, 2017 at 9:58 pm

    This is my favorite story from last night.

    https://www.sarahpalinnews.com/2017/11/08/unexpected-candidate-ever-just-upset-nj-mayoral-election-story-incredible/?ref=Ads


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Tekzilla November 8, 2017 at 11:00 pm

      Sarah palin News? You go to that site…on purpose?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • rdw72777 November 9, 2017 at 12:22 am

        Story Incredible!!!!

  • w920us November 8, 2017 at 11:15 pm

    We all missed the most important event of the day yesterday.

    The 1st annual scream at the sky!

    WATCH: Liberals Gather to Scream at the Sky
    https://pjmedia.com/video/watch-liberals-gather-scream-sky-ny-philly/

    I love that some Young Republicans in Philly were handing out ear plugs. Haha


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • freego November 9, 2017 at 12:52 am

    Looks like the GOP will retain a bare majority in the VA House of Delegates, 51-49, at least according to Speaker Kirk Cox.

    https://twitter.com/KirkCoxVA/status/928376106419408897


    24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

    • roguemapper November 9, 2017 at 1:08 am

      The Republican in HD-94 leads by 13 votes and there are 50 provisional ballots that won’t be counted until Monday. There will also be recounts. Districts 27, 28, 40, and 68 are within state-paid recount threshold. Republicans lead in the first three of those.


      Dem NC-11

  • cer November 9, 2017 at 8:04 am

    It is looking good though to hang on to a bare majority by the GOP.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • cer November 9, 2017 at 9:45 am

      However, still could end up as 50/50.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

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