Political Roundup for November 10, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: As most people have no doubt heard by now, GOP nominee Roy Moore has been accused in a Washington Post story of having a sexual encounter with a 14-year old girl back in 1979 when Moore was a 32-year old assistant DA in Etowah County. Many, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and NRSC Chairman Sen. Cory Gardner (R) have said Moore needs to drop out of the race if the allegations are true(Moore is denying the allegations). However, it is too late to replace Moore on the ballot. Although, some have pointed out that was what we were told when New Jersey Democrats wanted to replace  scandal-plagued Rep. Robert Torricelli (D) on the ballot for US Senate in 2002 with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), and the state’s Democratic-dominated judiciary essentially looked the other way. But, barring some similar legal maneuver(and getting Moore to agree to drop out, which may be even tougher), Republicans may be stuck with Moore and hoping that voters believe Moore’s denials or look past something that happened nearly 40 years ago(which, this being deep-red Alabama, wouldn’t be a total surprise).

PA-Sen/PA-LG: Businessman Jeff Bartos has dropped out of the US Senate race, and will instead run for LG, working in tandem with the gubernatorial campaign of state Sen. Scott Wagner (R). Bartos’s exit from the race helps Rep. Lou Barletta (R), as he was the strongest opponent still in the race. Barletta now only faces minor opposition in the GOP primary.

House:

HI-1: State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D) became the 2nd person to join this race on Wednesday. She joins state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D), who announced a bid earlier this week. Party-switching state Rep. Beth Fukumoto (R->D) and AG Doug Chin (D) have indicated an interest in running as well.

NV-3: Michelle Mortensen, a consumer reporter for a Las Vegas TV station, is leaving that job to run in the Republican primary for Congress. She joins state Sen. Scott Hammond (R), former state Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman (R) and former Clark County Republican Party chairman Dave McKeon in the Republican primary. Philanthropist and 2016 NV-4 congressional candidate Susie Lee is currently the only Democrat running.

NH-1: Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) has joined the race for this open seat. Pappas was recruited by national Democrats for the seat, and likely starts as the frontrunner. He joins former state AFL-CIO president Mark McKenzie, former Obama Administration Pentagon official Maura Sullivan, former Strafford County District Attorney Lincoln Soldati, and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Mindi Messmer (D) and Somersworth Mayor Dana Hilliard are also considering. State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) and former law enforcement official Eddie Edwards are running on the Republican side, with former NH GOP Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry considering. Trump won this district 48-45 last year.

TX-2: State Rep. Kevin Roberts (R) is the first person to jump into the race for this now-open seat. Roberts is in his first term representing a district in northwest Harris County. TX-2 lies wholly within Harris County, snaking around the northeast, north, northwest and west parts of the county.

TX-21: State Rep. Jason Isaac (R) has announced he is running for Congress. Isaac joins retired CIA operations officer Eric Burkhart as the only candidates to announce a run so far. Isaac doesn’t actually live in the district, but part of his state House district overlaps the congressional district.

VA-6: Two Republicans wasted no time in announcing campaigns in the wake of yesterday’s retirement announcement by Rep. Robert Goodlatte (R). State Del. Ben Cline (R) and attorney and RNC member Cynthia Dunbar have both jumped in the race. Cline has represented a seat in Rockbridge County since 2002 and was re-elected easily on Tuesday. Other Republicans are expected to get in the race. Two potential Democratic candidates have already taken themselves out of the running. Former TV news anchor Chris Hurst had been recruited by national Democrats to run, but he instead ran for the House of Delegates and defeated an incumbent Republican on Tuesday. Del. Sam Rasoul (D), who took 37% against Goodlatte as the Democratic nominee in 2008, the best showing for a Democrat in the district since Goodlatte’s first election in 1992, had been considered a possible candidate, but will not run.

WV-3: WV Republican Party chairman Conrad Lucas, is running for Congress. Lucas joins a Republican primary that includes state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R), state Del. Rupie Phillips (R), and physician Ayne Amjad. Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D), Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, and Tri-State Transit Authority CEO Paul Davis.

Governor/state offices:

CO-Gov: Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) entered the already crowded GOP primary for governor yesterday. She joins 8 other Republicans currently in the race, including Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, investment banker Doug Robinson(nephew of Mitt Romney), and former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), who just joined the race last week. Brauchler, however is now considering dropping out of the race and running for AG(more on that below).

NY-Gov: Little surprise, but after his loss in the Westchester County Executive race on Tuesday, Rob Astorino has announced he will not run for governor next year. Astorino, who was the 2014 Republican nominee, had been talking about making another run.

CO-AG: Now that the Attorney General position is open, Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, is now considering dropping out of the governor’s race and running for AG instead, seeing his possibilities in the governor’s race fading as the race becomes more crowded. One person who will not be running for AG is Rep. Ken Buck (R), who had said earlier in the year that he might run if Coffman didn’t run for re-election. Buck announced on Wednesday that he will instead run for re-election to Congress. Other Republicans who have expressed interest in running include state Rep. Cole Wist (R) and 2014 CO-2 Republican nominee George Leing.

TX-AG: Austin-based attorney Justin Nelson (D) is running for Attorney General. He is the first person to announce a challenge to AG Ken Paxton (R). He is part of a law firm that specializes in high-stakes civil litigation and is also the founder and former president of One Nation One Vote, a nonprofit organization pushing for eliminating the Electoral College and going to a national popular vote.

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203 Comments

  • GerGOP November 10, 2017 at 7:11 am

    I am beyond disgusted with the Republican Party, Trumpists and Congressional Leaders. The main reason why I’ve tuned out, mostly. Not that it matters, me being German and all that.

    Today, I took it a step further: For almost ten years, I had a Republican Elephant as a Keychain. Something which was met with befuddlement by almost all my friends who saw it. Today, I threw it in the trash. Moore was the last straw for me.

    • dpmapper November 10, 2017 at 7:48 am

      Congressional leaders are in a bind. I can sympathize with at least some of them. But yes, the party-uber-alles hacks that suspend all judgment about Trump and now Moore because they stick it to Democrats are disgusting. I too have stopped identifying as Republican due to this.

    • Lucas Black November 10, 2017 at 8:55 am

      I’m with you, I can’t be in a party with somebody as ugly as Roy Moore. Though most GOP Senators seems to be semi-disavowing him, they need to announce that they won’t let him sit in their caucus.

      • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 9:08 am

        The irony here is the perception that there’d be some sort of blowback to Senate Republicans. Hardly any are even up in 2018 so there’s no electoral impact to threatening not to seat him. They’d also look better from a perception point-of-view to the public I’d think. And from a politics angle, by threatening to not seat him it might actually make people feel it’s okay to vote for him to keep the Dem from winning (I admit this one is 8th dimensional political gymnastics) as they might get a chance for another election.

        • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 11:13 am

          You’re missing the point. The broader, long-term implications for the party are significant. It’s like smoking in closed space. Are you going to give me black lung with a single cigarette in an elevator we’re standing in? Nope. But you’re going to make me smell like garbage. And that stink isn’t going to cone out without a thorough drubbing in the wash.

          The only people who think anything good about the GOP are the GOP base, and the rest of think that the party is cesspool filled with the dystopic crankery of the Trumps and Bannons of political life. Oh, sure, Republicans can still win because Democrats might put up cynical figures like Hillary. But we are seeing right before our eyes what even marginally more aspirational Democrats can do to the GOP.

          So it’s a branding issue as much as a 2018 electoral one. Because Republicans are traditionally so bad at winning elections they’ve adopted a metric of success that mainly involves just winning, baby. So whatever helps the party win the next election is how you measure a bad or good thing, politically. But that’s what gets you a GOP trifecta in Washington with literally no major legislative accomplishment in the first year of government. How is that even possible?

          Republican success in the last year, diminshing as it is, is absolutely pyrrhic, for all of those reasons. The truth is that you can lose by winning. The man at 1600 Pennsylvania is proof of that. And Roy Moore winning might just be a nail in the coffin. McConnell and other Republicans know all of this. They just don’t know how to deal with the reality of it. But the longer they take to do so, the longer the infection has to spread, until at some point, well, there’s nothing left to be done.


  • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 7:27 am

    McCain has said Moore should drop out because the allegations are bad. Not because they’re true, mind you, just because they’re bad.

    So how does this work, exactly? Anytime an allegation is made against a candidate, that candidate should drop out? Regardless of whether there’s any truth to the allegations? Or does that just apply to Republicans, or people John McCain disapproves of?

    • MikeFL November 10, 2017 at 7:44 am

      Well he evidently thinks they are true, simple as that.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 8:16 am

        But it’s more fun to create dramatic rhetorical paradoxes…

    • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 8:19 am

      Yeah sorry, the blame for this situation lies entirely with the idiots who boosted a twice-expelled judge who is also a flaming theocrat. He’s also entirely unfit for public office.

      You don’t get to turn this around and make it about the establishment boogeyman hiding under your bed. They didn’t nominate the idiot on the ballot in Alabama, the oh so brilliant populists did.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • MosheM November 10, 2017 at 8:28 am

      You have FOUR people on the record alleging what he did to them.

      WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED?


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 8:40 am

        Really? That’s all it takes, finding four people to go on the record?

        I didn’t even support Moore, I supported Brooks, but if a similar allegation from decades ago surfaced about Mitt Romney, I suspect most of the GOPe posters here would put a lot more stock in Romney’s denials, insist on proof, and point to the convenient timing of the release and impossibility of verifying or prosecuting any of the details. A lot of you guys are pretty transparently willing to believe this simply because you don’t like Roy Moore’s politics, as if being extremely religious alone constitutes a mark against character. Were the voters who elevated Dennis Hastert to the GOP nomination and eventual public office supposed to know he was a pedophile? He was a staid and respectable establishment guy, after all. How could the voters who elevated Moore to the GOP nomination have known someone would make allegations about him?

        There is a pretty wide gulf between “Roy Moore does not respect the separation of church and state” and “Roy Moore preys on children”, and a lot of you are eagerly vaulting over that gulf based on nothing remotely in the realm of proof.

        • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 8:54 am

          Eyewitness testimony is a form of proof you know. Acceptable in a court of law and everything. We send people to jail in this country all the time based on nothing more than that. Especially when backed up by other testimony.

          As to your Mitt Romney point, it’s absurd because he’s transparently a moral person who stays within the bounds of his moral code, and guess what? No one ever accused him of anything.

          One side of this party is elevating people that were already transparent frauds-and they’re doing it on purpose to show how mad they are! Surprise! It keeps blowing up in your faces. Even more surprises! They keep blaming the boogeyman establishment for their bad choices!


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

          • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 9:05 am

            Speaking of which, there’s no statute of limitations in Alabama for child molestation, and Roy Moore’s alleged conduct certainly falls under the Alabama statute for Child Sexual Abuse. They really should have a jury decide.


            Dem NC-11

            • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 9:30 am

              The WaPo article claims the SOL ran out long ago.


              30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

              • Jon November 10, 2017 at 11:20 am

                WaPo is correct, while if someone does the same thing today in Alabama there’d be no statue of limitations in that case; but back in 1977 there wouldn’t be an exception to the statue of limitations on this type of case in most states.

                In addition, there was an additional requirement in 1977 in most states that’s since been abolished in all of them: previously “Chaste Character”


                45, M, MO-02

              • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 3:51 pm

                Ah, that’s right. It looks like the SOL for child molestation wasn’t removed until 1985. That’s unfortunate.


                Dem NC-11

          • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 9:26 am

            Eyewitness testimony is actually one of the most hotly debated topics in criminal law. People are sent to jail all the time on eyewitness testimony, sure. But rarely is this ever for eyewitness testimony from decades ago, which any half-decent defense lawyer could easily get thrown out of court as patently unreliable.

            >As to your Mitt Romney point, it’s absurd because he’s transparently a moral person who stays within the bounds of his moral code, and guess what? No one ever accused him of anything.

            I think John McCain is transparently faithful to his wife too; that didn’t stop George Bush from launching a whisper campaign claiming McCain had fathered a black child out of wedlock. To be accused of something you just need someone to point a finger at you; the accusation doesn’t have to be true. No one ever accused Roy Moore of sexual impropriety before yesterday, not in 40 years of prominent and highly controversial involvement in Alabama politics. I’m unsure of what you mean about a “moral code” in this context; certainly before yesterday it could be said that Moore had conformed to the same moral code, unless you think it’s immoral to hold the political views that Moore does.

            • shamlet November 10, 2017 at 10:22 am

              McCain was widely known as a player in his early career though. It needs to be somewhat plausible for false accusations to get traction… Someone (I think it was Ben Carson but I could be mistaken) was accused of some pecadilloe at some point and responded by saying he’d never slept with anyone other than his wife ever, and it went away instantly.


              R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • HS November 10, 2017 at 1:12 pm

            Woahhhhh…Romney was accused of many things. The Post said he picked on a kid, presumably for being gay, in prep school. He was accused of firing someone who had cancer. And of torturing his dog. And Democrats I talked to really believed this crap.

        • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 8:58 am

          Yet, the moment the Harvey Weinstein allegations began dropping, everyone and their mother and brother had no hesitation in the slightest to not only destroy him but his Democrat supporters.

          Truly unbelievable some are defending Moore out of their loathing of the media.


          MA-7

          • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 8:59 am

            Harvey Weinstein was literally caught on tape attempting to coerce an actress.

            • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 9:01 am

              Sigh. Have fun defending a child predator!


              MA-7

              • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 9:08 am

                Why do we even bother with the presumption of innocence at all, when we can make it so much easier by denouncing everyone who believes in a judicial process as apologists for rapists and child molesters?

                • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 9:13 am

                  FOUR women and THIRTY sources


                  MA-7

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 10:26 am

                    Moore could solve this quickly. i am sure he has a Bible around he could swear on that these allegations are not true. i would accept one of his Ten Commandment monuments.


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                    • Left Coast Libertarian November 10, 2017 at 2:48 pm

                      When Kevin Spacey was accused he said he didn’t remember it but was sorry. Anyone who doesn’t unequivocally say they didn’t do it has done some unwanted sexual act to someone.

                  • HS November 10, 2017 at 1:15 pm

                    One woman claimed the attack. The others just said he was interested in them. The Post clearly was trying to pretend there was more evidence here than there actually is.

                • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 9:16 am

                  Well Roy Moore doesn’t believe in the judicial process either…


                  R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 8:44 am

        False. And this really highlights the problem with the WaPo article. Buying wine over dinner for a 18/19 year old you are dating is not the same as molesting a 14 year old. WaPo went to great lengths in the article to establish a pattern of behavior and people in the Twitter universe are treating each story as equally heinous when in reality that’s nowhere near true.

        Don’t get me wrong I want Moore to drop out or someone to mount a write-in campaign against him. But I would be careful in equating each account.


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 8:58 am

        Not to mention 30 confirmations.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 9:11 am

      Beyond being disgusting is that Moore is a theocrat who spent his public life lecturing people on morality and trying to impose his religious views on society in a renegade fashion. The fact Moore has not sworn on a stack of Bibles that he did not do this tells me it happened and there are more stories out there.

      At the point the Religious Right needs to admit defeat and quit insulting religious faith generally through their never ending line of hypocrites. There is nothing moral about their cause and as it is just another flavor of working class white identity politics.

      The GOP has not gone far enough. National Republicans need to campaign for the Democrat 1991 Louisiana style and will immediately remove him if he wins.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 9:50 am

        I disagree with this. The decline of the religious right (and of Christianity in this country in general) is exactly why we are getting the alt-right and this wave of white identity politics.

        Even if national Rs treat Roy Moore as they did David Duke, I’m willing to bet (giving at least 10-1 odds) that Moore wins anyway. Alabama is not going to elect a liberal D to the Senate. And as I said yesterday, the party can expel him, but I guarantee that he will run again in the 2018 special and have a good chance to win. I throw up my hands.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 10:22 am

          Roy Moore + national environment will test what the GOP floor is in Alabama. Don’t know if it’s low enough for Jones to win but he couldn’t get an easier-to-beat opponent than a child molester. (Although, I said yesterday it could be worse if Moore were molesting boys, the religious right might not be defending him in that case)

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 10:29 am

          The evangelical right is defending this guy. At this point their moral standing is non-existent and have become another vehicle for working class white identity politics.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 11:01 am

            I think the GOP might want to get their tax reform bill passed before Dec. 12, because that way they will sure of having 52 GOP senators as opposed to maybe only 51 after the Alabama special senate election.

            Moore is yet another holy hypocrite and I think the allegation that he had sex with an underage female are likely true. Not only is he a theocrat, telling everyone else how they should live, but he makes off the wall statements like 9/11 was God’s punishment for the US for being so sinful. Still he is clever and the liberal establishment MSM (like the WaPo) is so distrusted and hated in red states like Alabama that he is trying to make them the issue now, saying they are out to destroy him because of his social conservative beliefs. That may or may not work but it seems to be the only path he can follow now if he is to stay in the race – and I don’t think he intends to drop out.

            Also we know the NY Times sat on a story about Harvey Weinstein’s sexual behavior for years and NBC News did so more recently. The fact that Weinstein was a big LibDem advocate and donor had nothing to do with that of course (yeah sure). So that makes me wonder if the WaPo sat on the Moore story for awhile and released it when it would be the most politically damaging and too late to replace him. I don’t know that for sure but it sure is interesting timing and if you think the WaPo are just “objective journalists” I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

        • fzw November 10, 2017 at 10:55 am

          If Alabamans want to elect a child molester to the Senate over a liberal Democrat who will only be there for three years, then that speaks more as an indictment on the voters of Alabama than it does the Democratic Party.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 11:00 am

            I despise Moore but I dislike it when posters insult voters, particularly Southern voters.


            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

            • fzw November 10, 2017 at 11:05 am

              Well excuse me for not thinking too highly of anyone’s moral compass if they can justify a vote for Moore.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

              • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 11:09 am

                I get it. The alternative is a Democrat who blocks the only chance in a generation to have a pro-life majority on SCOTUS. Instrumental voting for someone you despise is part of politics.

                I don’t understand why anyone would pick this fool in a primary.


                R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

                • fzw November 10, 2017 at 11:12 am

                  If Jones was smart, he’d make an ad promising to vote for any reasonable Gorsuch-like court appointees Trump would make over the next three years. But I doubt even that would matter.


                  Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                  R-leaning Indy.

                  • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 11:17 am

                    That would be shockingly smart. So it won’t happen.


                    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

                  • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 11:55 am

                    If elected, Jones would have to vote for any Supreme Court nominees that Trump puts up to have any chance to win re-election in 2020. But my fear there is that Jones would realize he has no chance at re-election and as such just largely vote a straight liberal line (like Claire McCaskill has.)


                    Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

                  • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 12:02 pm

                    Jones could truthfully say that.
                    But Jones would not be able to force Fake Tears Chuck Schumer to give Trump nominees hearings and votes if he was the 51st Democratic senator in 2019.

                • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 11:19 am

                  Instrumental voting has gotten the pro life movement basically nothing in five decades of said voting. It’s astonishing that pro life voters (and I’m one of them) keep chasing that bait ecery single time.


                  • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 11:26 am

                    There are a lot of abortions that aren’t being funded across the world thanks to the Mexico City policy. Hyde would be gone without bloc voting. And no meaningful state level restrictions on abortion would survive Garland on the court. That’s not nothing.


                    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

                    • AD123 November 10, 2017 at 1:17 pm

                      Yea, pro-lifers have actually made quite a bit of incremental progress over the last 25 years, something which, as you mention, would be erased very quickly with a 5 liberal majority.

                      There’s also a very good chance the death penalty would be gone, gun rights would be rolled back, race would be allowed to play a much more prominent role in day to day life, etc. – the Supreme Court is a more powerful legislative body than Congress.

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 11:30 am

                    Well they have fully adopted the Victim Conservative mentality.


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 11:23 am

                  Why is a liberal Democrat the only alternative? How hard is it for people to spell the name “Luther Strange”? Run a serious write-in campaign and Strange can probably win with 40% of the vote which if handled correctly should be no problem.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                  • fzw November 10, 2017 at 11:29 am

                    Because there are only two people in this race who can win. Jones or Moore. It’s silly to pretend otherwise. It’s up to the voters and their morals to ask themselves who they’d rather have in that Senate seat for the next three years of those two candidates.


                    Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                    R-leaning Indy.

                    • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 11:30 am

                      Not true at all. If Luther Strange launches a write-in campaign he can win. If you dont believe me you can ask Sen. Joe Miller about that.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • fzw November 10, 2017 at 11:32 am

                      For Luther Strange to win, he’d need Democratic votes, and there is zero incentive for Democrats to vote for him.


                      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                      R-leaning Indy.

                    • Boehnerwasright November 10, 2017 at 11:46 am

                      Comparing Murkowski 2010 write-in win in 2010 to a potential Strange write-in campaing is IMO not useful.
                      The dems have an way higher unealistic floor in Alabama compared to Alaska. Even sacrifical candiadtes get around 30%, more then the 24% the democratic candidate got in the 2010 alaska 3way race.
                      Murkowski had 8 years of incumbency as a senator and a moderate profile which helped with cross-over voters. Strange has neither.

                      The scandal around his appointment will make it even harder for Strange to get more votes then jones.

                    • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm

                      Strange barely got 45% of the vote…..in a Republican primary. Some kamikaze write in campaign is the perfect way to get a Democrat win with 42% of the vote. And even if you wanted one you would probably want someone other than the loser of the primary to try it.

                    • RRR November 10, 2017 at 12:26 pm

                      You’d pretty much need Nick Saban (although he’s a liberal and plenty of Auburn fans wouldn’t like to vote for a ‘Bama coach)…


                      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
                      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

                    • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 1:27 pm

                      Paging Shelly Sekula-Gibbs memories 😜

                    • Lucas Black November 10, 2017 at 3:12 pm

                      Dracula Cunt for Senate!

                  • HS November 10, 2017 at 1:45 pm

                    Why go with Strange? How about former Gov. Riley, or a Congressman? Mo Brooks would be an ironic and good candidate. Strange lost because people thought he was corrupt.

                    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 2:04 pm

                      Sessions would be the ideal candidate.


                      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                    • HS November 10, 2017 at 2:45 pm

                      True. And he isn’t doing anything as AG.

            • rdelbov November 10, 2017 at 11:09 am

              Exactly Rangel, Conyers, Jesse Jackson Jr, the Torch, Trificant and so many more non-Southern Pols who have won election and re-election.

              After Bill Clinton-we know the standard for serious charges—liberal Ds get a pass while Rs are expecting to get out of office.

              • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 11:13 am

                Let me be clear: Moore is disgusting and should drop out and should never have won the primary. I’m just saying that I understand what choice is left to conservative voters in Alabama if he doesn’t.

                I’m tired of this awful choice being forced on GOP voters though. Populists should be ashamed of themselves.


                R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

              • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 11:24 am

                The difference is that the first list are just crooked. Clinton is a monster, but he did not go after children while being a theocrat.

                There used to be a time when Republicans held themselves to a higher standard. That has passed sadly.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                • rdelbov November 10, 2017 at 12:02 pm

                  I am doubtful of the Moore claims –while there is a pattern of Bill Clinton having his way with young adult women. I can’t rate these matters on a scale–

                  I am no fan of Roy Moore but from a ethical standpoint IMO there is a statue of limitation on he said she said claims. We have a standard of justice innocent until proven guilty. This is not like Bill Cosby where there was hush and sealed grand jury testimony.

        • kewgardens November 10, 2017 at 11:09 am

          You gave 20-1 odds yesterday and I believe 100-1 odds before yesterday. Are you going down to 5-1 odds tomorrow? 2-1 odds by Monday?

          • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 11:22 am

            I feel better about my prediction of a Jonew double digit win today than I did yesterday. But I’m less sure that the GOP has the guts to sink actively sink his candidacy. There’s a fatalism about GOP politics today that may just rather let the chips fall where they may. Not sure that’s a hugely wise idea in a political environment like this.


            • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 12:29 pm

              I cannot see how Jones goes on to a double digit victory. Post Billy Bush, Martha Roby withdrew her Trump endorsement and was subject to a write-in campaign that held her down to a 9-point victory.


              30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

              • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 1:47 pm

                Realistically, I suspect Jones’ absolute ceiling is around 52 percent.


                MA-7

          • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 11:58 am

            Heh. I said 10-1 odds *if* the national Rs treats him like they did David Duke, and basically endorse Jones. If they stay mostly silent, then it remains 20-1.


            Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 11:03 am

      Look it is really pretty simple. Moore’s accusers have laid out a pretty convincing case that he sexually abused a 14 year old girl. Both the girl and the girl’s mother confirm she was with Moore. There is a record of both Moore and the girl being at the courthouse on the day she claims they met. 2 of the girls friends corroborate that the girl told them at the time that she was dating an older man named Roy Moore. This is a pretty convincing case. The burden is now on Roy Moore to deny it and offer some proof that he is innocent. So far he has not done that. Instead he’s cast blame on the Washington Post and liberals and the media but Moore has not directly addressed the allegations himself. If I was falsely accused of molesting a 14 year I would be screaming my innocences from the rooftops. I would swear on a bible I didnt do it. I would offer to take a lie detector test to prove my innocence. I would sue the Post and the false accusers for defamation. And I would publically criticizes those defending the actions I didnt take. So far Roy Moore has done none of this. Instead he’s following the blame others playbook. That is NOT acceptable for an accusation like this.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 11:26 am

        Bingo!


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • AJNolte November 10, 2017 at 12:44 pm

        If I lived in Alabama, I’d probably have voted for Moore before this, and I think a lot of the “theocrat” stuff thrown around on this site says more about the posters than it does about the politicians accused of it [Moore not acting properly as a judge is a more legit critique, but some of the anti-religious right fear-mongering gets real old real fast and is a reason I don’t post more here].

        At this point, if I lived in Alabama, I’d probably write in someone else as a protest vote. If Jones were a more traditional pro-life southern Democrat, I’d vote for him without hesitation in this situation. Because at this point, as someone who cares passionately about abortion and religious freedom issues, Moore is more of a hindrance than a help even if he wins.


        33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

        • RRR November 10, 2017 at 1:00 pm

          The man believes in religious tests as a requirement for holding office, and he’s declared that groups of people not conforming with his worldview (the transgendered, for one) to lack basic rights. Moore denied a mother access to her children during divorce proceedings not because she had an affair but because she had a lesbian affair. And the judge didn’t order Christian scripture monuments to be preserved at a state courthouse, he ordered them built and installed. He also actively encouraged state judges to ignore federal court rulings because they weren’t aligned with his religious views. So, please, explain how he is not an archetypal, down-the-line theocrat.


          PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
          More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 1:57 pm

            i know some throw the term around here, but Moore is quite possibly the most powerful theocrat in modern American history. The zeal he has makes Rick Santorum look like a godless atheist!


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • AJNolte November 10, 2017 at 4:07 pm

            I view Moore’s views as reactionary, in that he wants to return the religious balance to something like what it was in the nineteenth-century. But nineteenth-century America was not a theocracy, for all that the government behaved badly toward a number of religious minorities at both the federal and state level. Moore’s not advocating for direct rule by God or divinely-appointed representatives, such as exists in Iran and Afghanistan. Mind you, I think Moore’s ideas are a bad idea, and potentially very destructive to religious freedom, but I would probably have reluctantly voted for him, before yesterday, given how close the senate is and the need to get good judges through [now, not so much].

            The problem with the loose talk of “theocracy” is that, in my opinion, there is a systematic attempt right now by some elements of the left to chuck all religion out of the public square in the name of protecting the U.S. from “theocracy”. The extreme fringes of the secular left are acting like Kemalists from the twenties and thirties. Not only is very much against the American spirit of passive secularism, but it’s going to create more of a backlash along Roy Moore lines, or more extreme, in the future [see Erdogan]. Nobody on the center-right, even those who are more socially libertarian, ought to feed into that.

            All this aside from the fact that, if Moore is guilty of what’s claimed, he should be absolutely nowhere near public office, and frankly, needs to repent, get help and go away.


            33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

  • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 8:17 am

    John Couvillon‏
    @WinWithJMC
    1h1 hour ago

    ALABAMA SENATE POLL: JMC still plans to publish no later than Sunday night. He can tease one result now, even from raw data: the Democratic “wave” Tuesday night was no fluke (generic partisan ballot test was one of the poll questions). #ALSEN


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • prsteve11 November 10, 2017 at 11:04 am

      I hate it when pollsters drop a cryptic clue like this, but it sounds like he’s referring to a generic question rather than a Moore vs Jones matchup. I think it would be unwise to look too deeply into a poll taken right during and after something like this, but I could be wrong.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 11:28 am

        Todd Akin wasn’t exactly drowning in Missouri pollng after his rape comments. One poll kept him basically even in the race. But these scandals roll like a mudslide, slowly churning and eating up the optics and numbers in a race until it’s too late to do anything about it. I’ve seen this too many times. Candidates feel buoyed by competitive post-scandal polling. But they never actually had a shot. The results were baked into the cake in a way that mere numbers can’t quite show.


        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 11:32 am

          Arguably Akin style comments would be far preferable here. They might get you votes in Alabama!


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • MosheM November 10, 2017 at 8:26 am

    More than 140,000 Puetro Ricans have moved to FL since Maria hit.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 8:39 am

      Can you post a link. I don’t doubt it, but rather Curious if there is more stats to look at…

      • MosheM November 10, 2017 at 9:23 am

        Adam Smith on Twitter.


        29, M, R, NY-10

      • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 10:39 am

        I don’t doubt a number of Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida since the hurricane (and to NY as well). But frankly 140,000 seems too high; how is this number arrived at. I have my doubts.

        • Jon November 10, 2017 at 11:26 am

          If it includes those that were already on the mainland visiting family or relatives at the time (or other reasons) the hurricane starting causing cancellation of return flights to PR in advance of it, then it might be accurate.


          45, M, MO-02

          • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 12:08 pm

            But Puerto Rican visitors to Florida at the time of the hurricane is not the same as people who plan to move there. It just sounds like an awfully high figure to me and I would like to see how it is calculated before I accept it. Also not all Puerto Ricans leaving the island are going to Florida. Some are going to New York and to a lessor extent neighboring states.

            • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 12:31 pm

              And Allentown Pennsylvania. Clearly the Billy Joel sing is driving that 🙂

              • HS November 10, 2017 at 1:50 pm

                That song was actually more about Bethlehem. But Allentown sounds better. And btw, the song was not popular with Allentonians when I grew up in Allentown in the 80s.

                • Lucas Black November 10, 2017 at 3:10 pm

                  Well, the video was really gay. They probably didn’t like that.

  • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 8:36 am

    CA polls. We should be fine if Cox or Allen drops out.

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-latimes-senate-governor-primary-poll-20171109-story.html

    Newsom 31
    Villaraigosa 21
    Allen 15
    Chiang 12
    Cox 11

    Feinstein 58
    De Leon 31

    • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 9:04 am

      Isn’t Chiang the real wildcard. If he’s outside MoE of Villaraigosa and drops out the GOP is screwed regardless of what either Republican does. Chiang’s voters seem pretty likely to vote Dem (I’m guessing Newsom-leaning).

      • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 9:12 am

        Yea, I think a lot of Chiang supporters will end up like me. Ultimately wanting to support Chiang because he would make the best Governor but moving to Newsom because Chiang doesn’t have a chance. and Newsom is the second best option.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • jncca November 10, 2017 at 12:23 pm

          It’ll be interesting to see.

          Chiang supporters would fall into three camps, for the most part: Asians, technocrats, and hardcore Jerry Brown fans. I really don’t know which candidate is more appealing for those groups if Chiang were to drop out or if we ended up with Newsom vs. Villaraigosa.

          I would not assume it will be a huge margin for Newsom though, although it could be.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 1:29 pm

            But there’s no way it’s a Villa leaning group, and almost none would go for either Republican. Him dropping out would another GOP chances for top 2 even if there is just 1 Republican running.

          • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 8:25 pm

            Newsom IMO would easily sweep up the 3 of those groups. But we shall see. What congressional district does Chiang live in?


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

            • californianintexas November 10, 2017 at 10:43 pm

              Chiang lives in Torrance, which is split between Lieu’s (33) and Waters’ (43) districts.


              34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 9:05 am

      I hope Doug Ose runs!


      MA-7

    • GoldenStatesman November 10, 2017 at 1:25 pm

      http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/07/travis-allen-governor-assembly-donations-democrats-jerry-brown/
      Allen (R-Huntington Beach) was shown to have donated to multiple Democrats, including Gavin Newsom in 2010 (before he became an Assemblyman in ’12). I seem to recall another prominent New York Businessman who also donated to Democrats before he ran for his first political office…


      24, R, CA-38, Cubano, Community College Trustee

  • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    Friday NY Tidbits:

    While Dems strengthened their hold on the town council of the Buffalo suburb of Amherst, the Repubs retained control of the suburban Grand Island town council.

    Dem Assemblywoman Shelley Mayer and People for Bernie co-founder Kat Brezlev have both indicated interest in getting the Dem nod for State Senator George Latimer’s soon to be vacant Westchester seat, which includes half the city of Yonkers and the Sound Shore. When Cuomo calls a special election, Dem and Repub local leaders will choose the candidates, not voters in a primary.

    Western Tier GOP Congressman Tom Reed appears to lean toward the House tax reform bill ,which allows up to a $10,000 deduction for property taxes, but is negative on the Senate bill, which totally eliminates the state/local income and property tax deduction.

    Meanwhile downstate GOP Congressmen Donovan, King and Zeldin find both the House and Senate tax reform bills unacceptable. They propose the state/local income and property tax deduction be kept for 4 years and then gradually phased out only for very high income earners.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 1:24 pm

      God save us all when I agree with Peter King in taxes.

      Also I think Tom Reed is a Southern Tier congressman, I’ve never heard Western Tier.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 1:17 pm

    In Virginia, Dem Larry Barnett has conceded defeat to Repub Roxann Robinson for the Chesterfield HoD seat. Robinson has been leading by 124 votes. This leaves 4 close races (3 with GOP leading and 1 with a Dem leading) that will be subject to a recount. Dems would have to win 2 of the 3 remaining races where the GOP is leading in a recount as well as the race where the Dem is leading to take majority control of the House of Delegates.

    http://www.richmond.com/

  • RRR November 10, 2017 at 1:25 pm

    MN State Rep. Tony Cornish (R) accused of sexual harassment by a lobbyist and a State Rep Erin Maye Quade (D)… who happens to be married to a woman.


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • kewgardens November 10, 2017 at 1:41 pm

    Alabama Senate race now tied 46-46 per Decision Desk poll. https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/poll-shows-alabama-race-tied-after-allegations-against-roy?utm_term=.ovV0E7l1#.na7dyQMZ

    If Strange mounts write-in bid:
    Jones 44%
    Moore 41%
    Strange 12%

    Clearly, Strange does not have the political power of Murkowski in this instance.

    • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 1:48 pm

      Remember that it took a few days for Akin’s polling to crater.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • district1 November 10, 2017 at 1:55 pm

        Not to mention, nearly all polls overestimated Akin’s chances right up to the end:

        https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mo/missouri_senate_akin_vs_mccaskill-2079.html#polls


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 2:35 pm

          The polls also underestimated Trump.

      • prsteve11 November 10, 2017 at 2:31 pm

        Yes but did Akin still have many supporting or defending his remarks? For interest sake, I’ve looked at some commenters on conservative sites and the fervor for Roy Moore and rage toward the media is at fever pitch. I don’t remember a groundswell of conservative support for Akin, but don’t look at this site as a realistic barometer of Republican/conservative support for Moore. Additionally, Akin couldn’t deny what he said but Moore is denying all the allegations which seem unprovable. Personally, I don’t see Jones winning this thing.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 1:49 pm

      No surprise re: Strange. He hardly has the sway among independents and Democrats as Murkowski did. His entry would, however, automatically hand this thing to Jones.


      MA-7

    • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 1:56 pm

      As with Akin, polling numbers like this are actually the worst case scenario for the GOP. Moore can point to these numbers to say, hey, I’ve done nothing wrong and I’m still tied–why on earth should I step out? But, again as with Akin, it takes some time for the political debris to settle. The numbers say it might be tied, and probably it is, but numbers can’t catch the intangibles that will really shape the contours of the race after a scandal. I still say Jones wins by 10ish.


    • SlippingJimmy November 10, 2017 at 2:05 pm

      We really need to parachute Sessions (failing that, Brooks) into this race. Anything else could make the Senate 51-49 or give the Democrats the cudgel they need to make the Senate 51-49 (or worse) come next November.


      Republican, TX-22.

      • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 2:11 pm

        I actually think there’s a non-zero chance that McCain and Susan Collins go indy and announce they’re caucusing with the Democrats if Jones wins. Although I think they may do so if Moore wins, too.


        • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 2:22 pm

          There’s a 0 chance of that. McCain isn’t dumb, he’d wait to see the results of 2018 before doing that. Collins will always be a Republican, a very annoying one too.

          • AJNolte November 10, 2017 at 4:10 pm

            Collins doesn’t annoy me actually, as someone who disagrees with her on everything. She’s a moderate, has always been a moderate, makes no bones about being a moderate, and what you see is what you get. Murkowski–who pretended to be for ACA repeal and then voted against it when it matters, and also got her seat through pure nepotism–is far and away worse.


            33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

        • HS November 10, 2017 at 2:48 pm

          Yes – 0% chance of this.

      • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 2:17 pm

        You’d need a Sessions write-in candidacy to get what say…45%? I mean Moore’s ardent people are going to write-in Moore no matter what. I’m not sure Jesus would get 45% as a write-in against Moore as a write-in in Alabama.

    • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 2:31 pm

      The 8% still undecided are still Moore voters. They have reason to not vote for him but don’t want to vote Dem. If they can go to a voting booth by Dec 12 and have this fade from memory Moore still wins. If it stays the top story for 5 more weeks Jobes has a slim chance.

    • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 4:03 pm

      The only way a write in works is if Moore craters ala Dan Maes in CO-Gov in 2010. I can’t see people voting for an alleged pedophile if they have another option but what the heck do I know. Maybe people are really that screwed up these days.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 4:16 pm

        Well, a significant percentage of Moore’s voters don’t see him as a pedophile and won’t see him as a pedophile. If anything, those voters will see him as a martyr who is being persecuted by the forces of Satan. I would guess that 20% or so is Moore’s hard floor of support no matter what.


        Dem NC-11

        • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 8:46 pm

          Which could be enough for a write-in to win with a little over 40%.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 1:43 pm

    We haven’t heard one word today from the crowd here that boosted Roy Moore. Nothing to say? Sticking it to McConnell worth boosting a fool who could lose the Senate for us?


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 2:05 pm

      They always run when their candidates implode.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 2:09 pm

      I supported Brooks, but I’m curious: how were Moore supporters supposed to know about this?

      • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 2:14 pm

        They knew about everything else about him…

      • AD123 November 10, 2017 at 2:57 pm

        I agree with you… this isn’t a Christine O’Donnell or Sharron Angle unknown quantity type thing. Moore has been under close scrimutiny in the public eye for a long time now. No reason to think this was lurking under the surface. Of course, that doesn’t make the accusation less true, but I don’t see how it’s fair to tie this around the neck of his supporters or former supporters.

        Politicians implode with scandal, sexual or otherwise, with some frequency, including establishment ones – John Edwards, Christie, Delay, Foley, Weiner… heck, Denny Hastert was Mr. Republican for a decade while he had a past of assaulting boys. Once again, none of this excuses Moore (and I agree with Izengabe upthread that this is more than an unsubstantiated allegation), but let’s not pretend that this kind of conduct is limited to those outside the establishment’s graces.

      • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 8:09 pm

        Come on man, we all knew Roy Moore was unfit for office. His comments on Muslims and Homosexuals not to mention his ignoring of the law are all people needed to know when it came to him.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 2:07 pm

    The NRSC announced that they are dropping their joint fundraising agreement with Roy Moore.

    So my prediction of widespread GOP abandonment of Moore by early next week is continuing apace. These stories rely on momentum either building or fizzling, and that’s what determines if they’re big (48 percent) or not (Trump University). Give this a few days to build and Moore is done.


    • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 2:09 pm

      Earlier up thread you said you doubted the GOP had the guts to abandon him. You’re all over the place.


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 2:15 pm

        I said I’m doubtful about my prediction I made yesterday that the GOP would abandon him, but not about my prediction that Jobes will win easily. The NRSC is easing my doubts about the former, and I have no doubts about the latter. I still doubt I’m right about the GOP and Moore, but we’ll see soon.


    • andyroo312 November 10, 2017 at 2:10 pm

      And donations for Jones are probably through the roof right now.


      MA-7

      • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 2:23 pm

        I’d bet Moore’s are high too though.

        • Octosteel November 10, 2017 at 2:53 pm

          I don’t think NAMBLA donates to candidates.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 3:02 pm

            Well Moore is okay with young women not men remember.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • Lucas Black November 10, 2017 at 3:09 pm

            I think he’d have had to have gone for boys for them to want to support him. Mind you, I read an article a few years ago that said NAMBLA doesn’t actually exist anymore as an marginalization but it obviously lives on as a boogeyman.

            • TexasR November 10, 2017 at 3:10 pm

              The National Association of Marlon Brando Look Alikes no longer exists? Sad! 😉


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              Be careful what you wish for

              • Lucas Black November 10, 2017 at 3:13 pm

                The Christian Brando scandal did them in.

              • HS November 10, 2017 at 3:25 pm

                👍

        • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 3:34 pm

          I meant from the #fakenews crowd not actually people supporting him for this. Every day I live in surprised at how wide and deep the fake news passion is in a large set of the population.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    Interesting, the Daily Beast reports that Steve Bannon has encouraged his friend, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, to consider running for Pres in 2020 as a Dem. He reportedly indicated it would be the only realistic path for a viable presidential run by him. His Breitbart News site has generally given Cuban favorable coverage.
    So why is Bannon encouraging a Hillary Clinton supporter to run for Pres, when Trump may run again in 2020? Reportedly Bannon doesn’t think Trump will run again. This is why if you are a Repub you need to keep a wary eye on Bannon. He seems more interested in creating division in the GOP than defeating Dems. And look at some of the great candidates he has backed, like Roy Moore and ChemTrails Kelli.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/steve-bannon-advised-mark-cuban-to-consider-running-in-2020-as-a-democrat

    • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 2:32 pm

      He would like the rich/elites/establishment of both parties to unify around one candidate. His dream is basically a Macron vs Le Pen party system.

      Of course Cuban is never going to be nominated for president by the Dems. If he was interested he might be a viable candidate for TX-Gov.

      • Boehnerwasright November 10, 2017 at 2:52 pm

        How anyone can look at the past in this country and still think a populist/nationalist worker party would work is very hard to understand for me. Time and time again the voters have shown that they vote race>class and a worker party doesn’t work when minoraties still vote overwhelming for dems. There are simply not enough WWC voters to build a competative party with.

        • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 5:11 pm

          Steve Bannon doesn’t want a class>race party, he wants a class+race party.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 10, 2017 at 5:22 pm

            A demographically dying combination at that!


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • AD123 November 10, 2017 at 5:44 pm

            Genuinely curious as to what the basis for this comment is.

            Bannon = racist has been memed to the point where people consider it true, but the actual evidence is kind of thin.

    • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 3:45 pm

      Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bannon ends up in the hard left a decade from now. His “economic nationalism” and isolationism puts him pretty much in bed with them. It’s of interest that the last interview he gave before leaving the White House was to hard left journalist Robert Kuttner.

      Cuban has no chance in the D primary.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • district1 November 10, 2017 at 5:26 pm

        Hard left and hard right have a lot in common.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • AJNolte November 10, 2017 at 4:15 pm

      This is what happens when you start trusting your party/movement to self-proclaimed Leninists.


      33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

  • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 2:35 pm

    Louis CK’s denial of the harassment accusations against him was powerful, if you haven’t read it.

    “The lying liar New York Times recently published a story that can only be considered fake news. But that’s nothing new from the failing oracle of darkness that is the New York Times. Of course the accusations in the Times story are false, and they are surely a desperate attempt to prevent the success of my new film. This is how my comedic competitors operate, and it is wrong.

    And, look, even if the charges were true, I would merely be following in the proud footsteps of biblical giants like Noah. Maybe that’s unusual today. Maybe it doesn’t happen all the time. But unless you’re willing to doubt the sanctity of the builder of the Great Ark, then it’s hard to call the accusations against me so bad.”


    • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 2:40 pm

      What? Didn’t he just come out and admit they were all true?

      • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 2:50 pm

        He did. Rawlings is mocking Roy Moore.


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • rdw72777 November 10, 2017 at 3:30 pm

          Oh duh I’m missing the joke.

          #ImThatGuy

    • shamlet November 10, 2017 at 2:54 pm

      Ok, you’re really going off the rails here. 2 Day ban. Come back if you can dial back the Dem snark from eleven.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 2:35 pm

    CO-Treas: State Rep. Steve Lesbock (D) accused of sexual harassment by fellow Democratic State Rep. He is currently running for State Treasurer.

    http://www.kunc.org/post/colorado-capitol-allegations-sexual-misconduct


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Chris Rawlings November 10, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      He basically propositioned a legislator and a lobbyist. Boorish, certainly. But it’s highly unlikely that any court would consider this harassment. This is why I worry about all of this #MeToo stuff. There’s a lot of bad behavior being called out and hopefully stopped. That’s good. But when we’re looking to decapitate legislators for propositioning women it seems more like a witch hunt more than a productive social movement. If we’re now going after guys for propositioning women, look, it’s going to be hard to meet quarum rules in some places.


      • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 2:50 pm

        Well, he got physical and grabbed the state legislator when she rejected his sexual advances. That’s a little more than propositioning.


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • shamlet November 10, 2017 at 3:11 pm

        The alternative way to see it is that it’s just changing social values reasserting a more stringent morality. As an unrepentant prude I wholeheartedly approve and am kinda delighted that the left is taking the lead on it.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • AJNolte November 10, 2017 at 4:17 pm

          +1, for oh so many reasons.


          33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

        • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 6:50 pm

          This was the argument made by a few social conservatives regarding the “affirmative consent” law in California, that it would deliver a hard blow against hookup culture.
          But while before the onus was on women/girls to not engage in irresponsible sexual behavior, these recent developments (and not just in the last month, but also with the crackdown on colleges on sexual assault, etc.) are putting the onus on men/boys to do so or risk allegations of sexual harassment/assault.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

          • AJNolte November 10, 2017 at 7:58 pm

            The problem with what’s happening on college campuses right now is that due process isn’t even close to followed in a lot of cases. I’m kind of okay with putting the responsibility on men and boys to avoid doing things that are sexually inappropriate; my biggest problem with the way it’s being done right at the moment is that it’s all stick, no carrot. Codes of chivalry, for all that they sometimes failed, had the virtue of at least providing positive reinforcement for good behavior.

            Electorally, though, I have a feeling the debate’s going to be dominated by puritanical feminists on one hand and a fairly nasty reaction by some guys on the other. Because apparently everything’s got to be identity politics all the way down now.


            33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

            • shamlet November 10, 2017 at 9:04 pm

              Yeah. Ultimately men will initiate the majority of sexual encounters… if fear leads to men making fewer irresponsible decisions it’s a social good, even if the abuse of the legal system is abhorrent.


              R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 10, 2017 at 8:26 pm

          Surely we are all better off having the likes of Sandra Fluke and Roy Moore team up to terrorize Americans with threat of violence into living a certain kind of lifestyle.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • shamlet November 10, 2017 at 8:57 pm

            I mean, I kinda consider the SJW left to be developing a new religion from scratch. And l I feel about it the same way I do about most religions – the values (which at their core are to treat people with respect, be judicious about sex, etc) are generally universal and sound, even if the myths and interpretations are strange and lead to selective application of those values. I basically consider the Sandra Fluke types this generation’s Jonathan Edwards or whatnot. A century hence schoolchildren will probably be reading a gender-inverted Scarlet Letter or about this. But ultimately the underlying message is something that’s needed socially.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 12:04 am

              New totalizing secular religions built from scratch, with some vague inspiration from Christian ethics in their background? So like Stalinism?

              Christian fundamentalists are in many way constrained by Christianity. Religious fundamentalists unconstrained by any actual faith send people to the gulags and gas chambers.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • shamlet November 11, 2017 at 9:52 am

                No. This is where separation of church and state needs to come in. Think about what Stalinism would be like if it were a purely social movement with no personality cult or legal power. What you wind up with is basically a hippie commune… which is an unorthodox living situation and one that could be seen as risky for abuse, but hardly any more so than a monastery or a Hasidim shtetl. Which is why we should start treating Social Justice like a religion and make sure it can’t implement its de facto theocracy over the rest of us nonbelievers.

                I will say one other thing that makes Social Justice more of a religion than prior leftist political movements is the emphasis on self-flagellation. Prior communist or fascist-type movements were on behalf of groups that encompass a majority of the population. In Social Justice, unless you’re the one person on earth who’s a black/hispanic/asian/native quad-racial transgender lesbian disabled immigrant you have something to feel guilt about. Which is a much more Christian-type dogma than the Communist workers’ uprising where the proles are perfect once they overthrow the government.


                R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 10:45 am

                  “I will say one other thing that makes Social Justice more of a religion than prior leftist political movements is the emphasis on self-flagellation.”

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Struggle_session

                  Even without state power, secular religion gives you things like Jonestown.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • shamlet November 11, 2017 at 10:49 am

                    Key word is *self*-flagellation. Also the universality of it… Communism didn’t actively make the case that everyone is some degree of oppressor.

                    Well, duh – any religion can be the basis for a cult. cf ISIS.


                    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • andrew_1918 November 10, 2017 at 3:35 pm

    2018 Generic Congressional Ballot (DCCC internal poll): 48/37

    2018 vs (2016) generic ballot shift:
    CA-21: D+16 (D+7)
    CA-49: D+10 (D+1)
    VA-10: D+9 (R+5)
    CO-06: D+5 (D+2)
    FL-26: D+5 (Tie)
    CA-25: D+3 (D+1)
    MI-08: D+3 (R+2)
    NH-01: D+3 (R+5, really)
    CA-48: D+2
    VA-02: D+2 (R+17)
    ME-02: D+1 (R+5)
    WA-08: D+1 (R+4)
    GA-06: Tie (and Trump Job Approval- 33/56! Sure, DCCC)
    MI-11: Tie (R+11)
    PA-08: Tie (R+8)
    IA-01: R+1 (R+8)
    IA-03: R+1 (R+3)
    PA-15: R+2
    TX-23: R+2
    UT-04: R+2 (R+18)
    NY-11: R+3 (R+12)
    WI-01: R+4 (cc: @SpeakerRyan)
    CO-03: R+5 (R+16)
    NY-23: R+5 (R+14)
    http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/20171109_year-out-memo.pdf

    • district1 November 10, 2017 at 3:44 pm

      This is a weird data set. Some eye popping numbers individually but when you average it all out probably just matches the shift in the national generic vote.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • Republican Michigander November 10, 2017 at 5:50 pm

      Only way MI-08 flips if it is a 2008 type of year with depressed R turnout and turbocharged Ingham County turnout. I won’t say it’s impossible, but it’s long odds.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • kewgardens November 10, 2017 at 5:53 pm

        But isn’t that what we saw in Virginia on Tuesday — at least with respect to the flipped House of Delegates seats?

        • Republican Michigander November 10, 2017 at 6:11 pm

          The SHTF has to occur for it. In a 2006 scenario, Granholm beat DeVos in MI-08 by 7000 votes. In a 2008 scenario, it was 52-46. Mike Bishop runs ahead of generic R in Rochester area which is the 2nd lightest red part of the Oakland part of the district (behind Trumpist swing area Holly).

          The only reason I don’t flat out dismiss this is because of Ingham County and state workers. Ingham has to get up to 65% for the D’s to have a chance. D’s got 60% in 2016, 63% in 2012, 66% in 2008, and 64% in 2006.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • prsteve11 November 10, 2017 at 8:49 pm

      Sounds like some feel-good polling for the Dems. Not that we shouldn’t pull out all the stops, but polling a year out can say whatever you want it to.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 4:48 pm

    Moore on Hannity first denies the allegations then vaguely admits to dating teenagers. This didn’t seem like the strong denial of an innocent man. Should be enough cover for the GOP to abandon him.


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Jon November 10, 2017 at 5:07 pm

      the definition of teenagers does include those that are 19 in addition to minors.
      Quite a few people also describe “young looking 20 & 21” old females as teenagers as well.


      45, M, MO-02

      • kewgardens November 10, 2017 at 5:50 pm

        Yea, for the record, in the 1990s, Jerry Seinfeld (who was 39) very publicly dated a seventeen year old girl, Shoshanna Lonstein, who was a senior at the Nightingale-Bamford School on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. http://defamer.gawker.com/remember-when-38-year-old-jerry-seinfeld-dated-a-17-yea-1714153938

        The relationship has absolutely zero repercussions for his career. So, I think 17 or 18 or 19 is VERY different than 14.

        Now, Seinfeld was not a politician, but still . . . .

        So, I think the case against Moore centers on the fourteen-year-old.

        • FiveAngels November 10, 2017 at 6:19 pm

          Well, Seinfeld was surely ridiculed for it, although back then this wasn’t something that would sink one’s career. I still think the best way to avoid trouble in this regard is to stick to my uncle’s rule “divide your age by 2 and add 7!”

    • Boehnerwasright November 10, 2017 at 5:14 pm

      Just dating teenager when he was around 30 years old won’t be enough on it’s own, especially as this all happened 35-40 years ago. But I feel like there will be more revelations about him dating way younger women. His answer felt like intentionally vague, so he wouldn’t be caught in a lie if there are more revelations in the next weeks.

      Moore’s claim that he didn’t even knew Leigh Corfman seems like it could backfire on him. Shouldn’t be impossible to find additional documents/witnesses if that claim is untrue.

      • Mayor Perk November 10, 2017 at 6:17 pm

        Agreed. I think the interview will backfire.


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • Jon November 10, 2017 at 6:37 pm

        Even dating many girls 16+ wouldn’t have been against Alabama community standards at the time.
        late 70s strikes me as a point of time that “jail bait wait” would have been considered creepy. (Still actually legal today)

        But as a legal matter, many states had an additional requirement of “previous chaste character” on the books in the late 70s. Mississippi took until the very late 90s to eliminate it.


        45, M, MO-02

        • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 8:54 pm

          Someone in their 30s dating an 18 year old high school senior is a creep. Someone in their 30s sexually abusing a 14 year old is a criminal. The issue here is him violating a 14 year old child not him being creepy and asking out 17 year old kids on a date.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • Jon November 10, 2017 at 10:24 pm

            Cultural norms were different forty years ago than than are today. Or even 25 years ago in rural areas when I was in college and was surprised at how young one of my college friends wife was; they were both of them from Dyer County, TN.

            A few decades before this there was even in the South a large number of December – May marriages involving aging Civil War Veterans and brides barely above legal age of marriage due to the CW pensions.

            We can also look at the European dynasties of the 17th – very early 19th centuries and find a lot of child brides.
            It doesn’t do much good to apply today’s standards to four decades ago; one of the 17 year old girls who went out went him said that her mom was okay with it.


            45, M, MO-02

  • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 4:57 pm

    GA to dump top 2 rules?

    http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/11/10/republican-loss-of-senate-seat-sparks-proposal-to-change-voting-process/

    State Sen. Josh McKoon, a Republican candidate for secretary of state, said he’ll pre-file legislation next week that would require both parties to nominate their own candidates in a special election.

    • FiveAngels November 10, 2017 at 6:21 pm

      Top 2 is painfully stupid. The recent Georgia Senate race is just another proof.

      • Boehnerwasright November 10, 2017 at 6:38 pm

        It makes sense in districts which are very onesided, as it gives voters a real choice in the general instead it being the candidate of the dominating party vs a sacrifical candidate of the opposing party who will never wins.

        But in more swingy districts it doesn’t make sense. This could be improved by only allowing 2 candidates of the same party to advance to the general if their party total vote share is above 60-70%. This would make sure that there are only 2 candidates of the same party if the primary voters are overwhelming in favour of this party.

  • RogueBeaver November 10, 2017 at 6:38 pm

    Ivey considering delaying the election but wants WH support first and it would be a messy court battle. GOP has also talked to Aderholt about a potential write-in campaign. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/us/politics/roy-moore-alabama-republican.html


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Boehnerwasright November 10, 2017 at 7:05 pm

      This seems like a really bad precedent to set. While possibly legal it is deeply undemocratic to delay/cancel an senate election just because the govenor doesn’t want the candidate anymore. If this worked and found legal, there are so many ways to abuse this and nearly everyone would be worse off in the longeun.

      If the behaviour of the candidate is so bad the senate can vote to expel him with 67 vote. But this should be done through an open vote in the senate if Moore wins, not through IMO undemocratic means like delaying the election.

      • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        Well unless Moore is willing to drop out, this would backfire badly. Moore’s supporters would go ballistic and support primaries against anyone who orchestrated this; and Ivey is toast in 2018. This could actually be about the only way that Doug Jones could be elected.

        If Moore is willing to drop out, they can change the date with minimal backlash.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 8:05 pm

          “But there is no apparent precedent for rescheduling an election so close to the planned vote, and it is unlikely Ms. Ivey could move the election without a court battle, Republicans acknowledged. But advocates of a delay say at least it could keep the election date tied up in court.”

          That last line is total nonsense. The courts are perfectly capable of ruling within days, or even within hours, when time is of the essence. There is zero chance that such a case wouldn’t be settled promptly. When Torricelli was replaced with Lautenberg it took all of 6 days for the state and federal court challenges to get resolved.


          Dem NC-11

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 10, 2017 at 8:31 pm

        Your precedents don’t matter anymore with a liberal Supreme Court. And neither do our future elections.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 9:00 pm

        It also unnecessary. A write-in campaign is the way to go here.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 10, 2017 at 8:33 pm

      Wouldn’t the relevant court be the Supreme Court of Alabama? Because they’d probably okay it, although Judge Moore might have a hilarious dissent.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 9:59 pm

        The federal courts could get involved because of the military ballots already sent out (and presumably a few might have been mailed back).


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • Jon November 10, 2017 at 10:40 pm

          The federal issue if a governor were to attempt to cancel an election is weather or not “Writs of election” (the language used in the 17th amendment) can be revoked; but potentially only if the Alabama supreme court would allow such a move.

          I don’t see military ballots having already been sent back directly affecting such a case unless the replacement election would be held too soon according to that federal statue.


          45, M, MO-02

          • Jon November 10, 2017 at 10:49 pm

            Given the history of “Writs of election” ; if the courts have to reach back to English common law to resolve the case the most likely outcome is that they can’t be cancelled unless a candidate dies or there’s some major natural disaster.


            45, M, MO-02

            • w920us November 10, 2017 at 10:59 pm

              She has already moved the date of the election once. Why not one more time?


              R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
              #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • w920us November 10, 2017 at 10:44 pm

        Btw, the entire 9-member Alabama Supreme Court consists of Republicans.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 12:08 am

          8 of them who probably dislike Roy Moore.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 6:43 pm

    Did the site just have a conniption for anyone else or was it just me?


    Dem NC-11

    • TexasR November 10, 2017 at 6:45 pm

      Yeah, it was displaying straight source code for me too.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

      • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 7:23 pm

        OK, thanks. Something is clearly out of whack on the server side and I can’t tell what it is yet. Meanwhile, I’m going to back up the site…


        Dem NC-11

        • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 10:01 pm

          The homepage is bugging out for me. Individual pages are ok.

  • Lucas Black November 11, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    Cassidy de-endorses Moore.
    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/359961-cassidy-pulls-endorsement-of-moore
    I wonder how this is going to play out? Will there be a big rush of unendorsements or will it just keep coming in a steady drip? And will any of it penetrate AL-GOP? It seems to me as long as his ‘hometown boys’ are standing with him, he won’t back down. I wonder if, behind the scenes, people like Mitch are telling the AL-GOP that they will refuse to seat him and are working to get this done in private?
    I do think they need to refuse to seat him. Having this creep in the Senate simply isn’t worth it.

  • cer November 11, 2017 at 11:28 pm

    Hey guys I’m trying to get through to these hardcore Moore supporters on twitter…. like talking to a brick wall! You know the drill…. the MSM is trying to destroy him…. these women are lying blah blah blah blah. I GIVE UP!


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:41 pm

      You maybe talking to bots. When we did out Alabama Senate poll it was picked up by a bunch of pro-Roy Moore bots who kept retweeting our results showing him in the lead. So Moore clearly is paying for bots on Twitter.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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