Weekend Open Thread for November 10-12, 2017

Welcome to the weekend! As bad as this week as been for the GOP we think it is important to look on the brightside. We may have lost 2 governorships, re-elected that airbag deBlasio and thrown away the safest of the safe Senate seats but at least we have found a new frontrunner for RRHelections’ Turkey of the Year Award! Now on to our questions……

  1. What was your biggest electoral disappointment this week?
  2. What electoral development gave you the most hope for 2018?
  3. What does the 2017 results mean for 2018?

And because it’s the weekend and this week has been so bad we decided as everything goes low we will go high instead so…… we give you THIS!

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210 Comments

  • OGGoldy November 10, 2017 at 8:51 pm

    1) I could be greedy and say not getting a D majority in the VA HOD, but since that was so far outside of the realm of CW going into the night, I can’t really say that was most disappointing. From my perspective, the biggest disappointment was probably Minneapolis mayor. I hate carpet baggers, and I loathe pompous people, and Jacob Frey is both. I don’t have any huge ideological difference with him as I would have with Ray Dehn had he won, but I do not like Frey.

    2) From a D perspective, it was the suburban movement to the left maintaining and even improving upon Clinton’s margins, which last year were considered unnatural and unsustainable against anyone other than Trump; that is no longer the case after this week, clearly.

    3) As much as any odd year results a year in advance mean for the next year’s elections. As much as ’09 meant for ’10, ’05 meant for ’06, ’15 meant for ’16, etc.

  • Red Oaks November 10, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    1. The results were pretty much in line with what I predicted except that the losses in the Virginia House of Delegates were larger than expected.
    2. The voters in the City of East Lansing, MI rejected a proposed City Income Tax! If a left wing college town won’t vote for an income tax then it is doomed everywhere else.
    3. 2017 and 2018 are both off year elections with a GOP President so of course Republicans are going to lose many elections in both years.


    MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    1. The only thing I’m disappointed about is the pre-1985 Alabama statute of limitations.

    2. That VA polls were strongly biased in favor of Republicans.

    3. That if the political landscape is the same in a year Democrats will retake the House.


    Dem NC-11

    • davybaby November 10, 2017 at 9:58 pm

      I am disappointed that Alabama STILL has an age of consent of 16.

      • OGGoldy November 10, 2017 at 10:04 pm

        Most states have ages of consent in the 16-17 range, maybe one or two at 18, but not many. That isn’t an Alabama specific law

        • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 10:33 pm

          Yes that is correct from what I have read; most states have the age of consent at 16 or 17. That is also the case in the UK and much of Western Europe. So if one doesn’t like that you can’t single out Alabama.

        • californianintexas November 10, 2017 at 10:58 pm

          Nine, to be exact, have 18 as the age of consent. Seven have it at 17, and one, Colorado, 15, so the majority of states in fact have 16 as age of consent (at least as of 2007). http://chnm.gmu.edu/cyh/case-studies/230?section=primarysources&source=24


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • Jon November 10, 2017 at 10:59 pm

        It’s 31 states that have 16.
        11 or 12 have 18.
        17 is actually the least common within the US 7 or 8.
        Appears there’s still a dispute on Texas involving two contradictory state laws.

        Recent changes are a decade or so ago SCOTUS thru out laws giving higher required age of consent for same sex vs opposite sex; about fifteen years ago Hawaii was the last to raise it’s consent age to 16 (was 14), and around 1999 Mississippi was the last state to abolish the requirement that the underaged person be “previously of caste character” for a crime to have occurred.


        45, M, MO-02

  • davybaby November 10, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    By what standard is Frey a “carpetbagger”? He moved to Minneapolis upon graduating from Villanova Law in 2009. He’s lived there for eight years, and has spent his entire career there.

    By contrast, when Hubert Humphrey first ran for Minneapolis mayor in 1943 he had only lived there for three years.

    • davybaby November 10, 2017 at 10:00 pm

      Sorry. This was intended to be a reply to Goldy.

    • OGGoldy November 10, 2017 at 10:06 pm

      He moved there and immediately started shopping for political office. That’s blatant carpetbagging.

      • davybaby November 10, 2017 at 10:46 pm

        Usually by “carpetbagging” people are referring to mid-career people who relocate to run for a specific office, such as Hillary Clinton in New York in 1999/2000 or Bobby Kennedy in New York in 1964. That’s quite different from a young person just starting out thinking, “I want to have a career in politics. What would be a good place to do it?”

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 11, 2017 at 8:25 pm

          Carpet baggers were Yankees sent down to the south to run for office. Anyone who moves to an area and then runs for office is considered a carpetbagger. If someone has lived somewhere for a few years and then runs they’re not a carpetbagger. Good recent examples of carpetbaggers were 2014 NY congressional nominees Sean Eldridge and Aaron Woolf. Usually a carpetbagger will move and then decide to run for offie. Eldridge decided to run for office and then moved. I’m not sure if Woolf ever moved, although he did own a home in the district. I don’t know anything about Frey, but if he moved to Minneapolis thinking he might run for office someday but didn’t run for 8 years he’s not carpetbagging.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 10:23 pm

    Well I expected the loss of the Gov races in Va and NJ but I certainly didn’t expect the GOP would almost lose the Va. HoD. Considering that Vogel only lost her Lt. Gov race by about 5 and 1/2 points it is not clear why the GOP lost 15 seats in the HoD downballot and skimmed by in a few HoD winning races by tiny margins. GOP loses were expected by most pundits in the HoD but not on that scale. I am reluctant to read too much into a limited set of elections with regard to 2018 but it does appear the GOP has a problem in affluent suburbs where Trump is not liked. So passing a tax reform bill like Senate one where the income tax and property tax deduction is completely eliminated, will not help GOP Congressmen/women in these suburban areas, particularly in states like NJ, NY, Cal etc.

    • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 10:39 pm

      Agreed about the political consequences of eliminating SALT. The revolt against the GOP was strongest in places like Barbara Comstock’s VA-10 which has a high median income of $115,291, a top state tax rate of 5.75% and an average property tax rate of $5,000 a year. Her constituents are the ones getting a tax hike under the GOP plan which means the people who the GOP needs to win back will be made even angrier. Its a recipe for political disaster.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • district1 November 10, 2017 at 11:00 pm

        Yeah, this is a good way to really rile up the (sizeable number of) moderate suburbanites who give weak approval to Trump, don’t care about him one way or the other, or ignore what’s going on in Washington.

        At this point tax cuts are practically a formative principle of the Republican Party. The idea a unified Republican government would voluntarily raise the tax burden of a large, politically salient and powerful population is more than a little bizarre.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 11:10 pm

          This is BS. Gillespie lost VA-10 by 2 points more than Trump…and a 2 point shift between 2016 President and 2016 Governor’s races in VA was basically consistent across the board in the entire state. Whatever losses we took have nothing to do with any tax policy but are rather legislative realignments along Presidential lines because Trump won the election.

          • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 11:24 pm

            Well that’s kind of the point. Trump lost VA-10 and Gillespie did worst. How can the GOP reverse that trend? I’m not sure screwing over the voters we need to win back in tax reform is the best way to do it.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 11:43 pm

              This is a swampy district. If you want to win it back, you have to ditch your entire limited government platform, or as I mentioned just lose every Presidential election.

              Why are we pretending that leftist voters are being screwed if they have to pay more taxes?

              Browsing through the National Review folks and Ben Shapiro and company…I think the GOP commentary class realizes that they might have to pay a bit in taxes if the GOP is to hold political power in this country.

              • district1 November 11, 2017 at 1:46 am

                There is 1.5 trillion dollars of space for legislators to play with. Not raising the taxes of people comprising what was recently a key Republican base group is not some impossible task.


                ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

                • krazen1211 November 11, 2017 at 10:16 am

                  Nobody said it was impossible. More that its unnecessary. $1.5 trillion doesn’t go as far as it did back in Bush’s day in 2001….so it needs to be distributed better.

                  Ed Gillespie had a plan to cut taxes in Virginia. These people don’t care. Look how they voted.

              • davybaby November 11, 2017 at 2:06 am

                Frank Wolf (R) held the district with little trouble for 34 years.

                • lordpet8 November 11, 2017 at 1:29 pm

                  That’s was due partly to the GOP gerrymanders. Had he kept the same district he had in 2003-2011 he might not have kept it as easily. The GOP kept shifting his seat further out from NoVA

      • Manhatlibertarian November 10, 2017 at 11:05 pm

        Yes and the Senators from states like Cal, NJ,NY, Va etc are all Dems, so the GOP leaders in the Senate were able to ignore that problem. But it is a very different story in the House where there are 28 GOP House members just from NJ,NY and Cal, most from suburban districts.

      • Red Oaks November 11, 2017 at 1:24 pm

        I’m skeptical that the specific details of the federal tax reform (like SALT repeal) will have much effect on GOP electoral chances in 2018. Didn’t Gillespie have a tax plan that was favorable to the upper middle class? Did it make a positive difference for him?

        Back in 2011 Michigan Republicans passed a massive tax reform bill that eliminated the hated Michigan Business Tax. However to make the plan affordable they also greatly reduced the pension/retirement income subtraction for the individual income tax. Critics howled at this decision – “This is a pension tax! How can you screw over seniors, an important Republican voting block!” The state GOP did just fine in 2012, 2014, and 2016 though.

        An even better example is North Carolina, another large competitive state. In 2013 NC Republicans passed tax reform that reduced the number of individual tax rates, significantly increased the standard deduction, eliminated personal exemptions, and limited the ability to deduct taxes and mortgage interest. Sound familiar? Look at how NC voters responded to these changes – they elected one of the major architects of the reforms, Thom Tillis, to the US Senate over an incumbent Democrat and continued giving Republicans nice victories in 2014 and 2016.


        MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • StatenIslandTest November 10, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    1) Being very wrong on NJ District 38. The Ds deviously released some internals that made it close when it was a near-Dem wave. Also seeing two small cities (Atlantic City and Hoboken) reject pretty good Republican mayor candidates.

    But the biggest electoral disappointment for all of us now goes back two months by Alabama primary voters not just sticking with Luther Strange. Kind of reminds me of how much easier it would have been with Brunner over Akin or Lugar over Murdock.

    2) The GOP win in NJ LD 21 where one of my favorite politicians, Tom Kean Jr,
    prevailed over a fired up #resistance in a Clinton-won district and saved his running mates. Republicans with good brands can survive in stormy climates.

    3) The GOP needs to pass center-right legislation that Trumps base plus upscale non-resist Clinton voters can be on board with.


    31, Jersey City

    • Izengabe November 10, 2017 at 10:33 pm

      I wouldnt read too much into the NJ legislative results. The maps are bulletproof incumbent protection gerrymanders. NJ had a 18 point swing at the top of the ballot from 2013 to 2017 and it only move 1 seat a piece in both bodies. That is kind of insane!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • HS November 11, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      If we are going to wish in Alabama, I would rather wish for Mo Brooks. He was the more principled conservative, and certainly the strongest general election candidate. Let’s not forget that Luther Strange lost this race by making a supposed corrupt bargain in the first place.

      • californianintexas November 11, 2017 at 6:39 pm

        If I was an Alabama Republican I would have gone for Brooks in a heartbeat. He was the cleanest of the 3, even Moore before the scandals broke. Suspensions on one’s record just don’t look good.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • Izengabe November 11, 2017 at 7:52 pm

        There is no better way for Big Luther Strange to get his reputation back then to take down a child molester and save a US Senate seat from the Democrats.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • GOPTarHeel November 10, 2017 at 10:29 pm

    1. Where to start?
    2. Republicans holding nearly all the Trump-won seats in the VA HoD. Also holding two Charlotte City Council seats that HRC easily won.
    3. Nothing we didn’t know before-that absent a war, the out party always cleans up in a midterm election.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • krazen1211 November 10, 2017 at 10:42 pm

      2. Ditto. The GOP held serve in Trump seats in the VA HoD as others said.

      If we can get symmetric realignment/polarization (doubt it works that way), there are 5, and possibly 7 (WV, ND, MT, IN, MO, OH, FL) Senate seats for the picking. If we win 4 of these the Democrats can take whatever the hell they want in the House, within reason.

      3. Ditto. It’s an open question I think as to whether midterm losses are avoidable anymore. It seems to me the only way to avoid that is to simply never win Congress in the first place like Bush 41 did so you can’t ‘lose’ it. Or just never win the Presidency.

      • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 11:11 pm

        Lyndon Johnson proposed eliminating midterm elections for House
        http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=27582

        Let’s get bipartisan agreement on this.

      • fzw November 10, 2017 at 11:17 pm

        Guess we’ll see if symmetric polarization will take out all the incumbent Dems in heavily Trumpy areas in 2018. It’s worth noting that the Democrats in Trump seats in New Jersey all won reelection by 20+ points. The lack of significant gains for Dems in Trump seats in VA could be partly a function of a) Republican incumbents outrunning Gillespie (who lost 7 Trump HoD seats) and b) gerrymandering leading many outside observers to conclude that all but 85 and a Chesterfield-based seat were out of reach. The results should definitely keep the 5 heavily Trump state Senators on guard, but I would hardly call them dead if incumbency is worth anywhere near as much as it was for the Democratic incumbents in red seats on Tuesday.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • roguemapper November 10, 2017 at 11:23 pm

          Virginia didn’t have “symmetric polarization” in 2017: https://i.imgur.com/XB1vHrs.jpg


          Dem NC-11

        • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 11:27 pm

          Democrats also romped in Trump HDs in Georgia.

        • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 11:48 pm

          The only D senator who is basically dead is Claire McCaskill. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ds hold the rest of their Senate seats.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • reedc November 11, 2017 at 12:20 am

        #2 should not be a comfort to anyone. It’s fantaastic that Republicans can hold 85% Trump seats! Woohoo! In the meantime there are just as many 85% Trump seats in VA as 85% Clinton seats, which did not use to be the case in a state like VA. Republicans are facing the same problem as dems in terms of self packing, just in rural areas. No one is talking about this. It’s a long term problem for the GOP though. The suburbs are becoming more and more dem. Want proof? Northam won 58 House of Delegate districts. Which means there are at least 8 republicans in Northam seats. Almost all in suburban areas. And this is with the supposed brilliant GOP gerrymander map. They can’t get a better map than the one they have now. So take comfort that the GOP won all the Trump districts if you want. The writing is on the wall however. There will be less and less of those districts going forward.

        • GOPTarHeel November 11, 2017 at 12:43 am

          …who is disputing the self packing issue going forward? But that transformation probably isn’t going to get worse by next year. It is indisputably positive that the GOP held the Trump seats even while losing many others.


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • roguemapper November 11, 2017 at 1:05 am

          For the record, one Trump district flipped (HD-85) and the GOP held two others by 125 votes and 84 votes (HD-27, HD-28).


          Dem NC-11

          • fzw November 11, 2017 at 1:20 am

            I don’t even know why people are focusing so much on the gerrymandered Trump seats either when Northam won three large Trump cities/counties: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Chesterfield and broke Hillary’s NOVA numbers


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

            • GOPTarHeel November 11, 2017 at 1:29 am

              Because seats are more relevant for incumbent vs challenger races.


              R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • krazen1211 November 11, 2017 at 8:51 am

          The question was for 2018, and not really into perpetuity. There are 6 Senate seats that Trump won by sizable to massive margins. Orders of magnitude matter…West Virginia votes like VA-09 and not VA-02.

          • Midnight901 November 11, 2017 at 8:56 am

            West Virginia only votes like VA-09 when the Democrat in the race is someone other than Joe Manchin.

          • reedc November 12, 2017 at 9:25 am

            Fair enough. What VA incumbent dem in a Trumo district lost? Because that would be the direct comparison. If we want to make strict Harris comparisons as to how this will play out with incumbent dems in Trumo states/districts then we have no comparison. All these Republicans saying the playing field is the same as 2016 (which is what Trumps legislative director just said on MTP) have their heads buried in the sand. Fact of the matter is there have been massive swings in nearly every seat, even if they haven’t been enough for dens to win in deep red districts, a trend that was continued in VA this week and it was the gerrymandervthat saved the GOP from losing twice the number of seats that it actually did.

            • krazen1211 November 12, 2017 at 9:41 am

              Well, there were 0 VA incumbent Dems in Trump districts going in, so there’s no way to answer the question. There were folks like Van Drew in NJ who won a district that Trump won by 9…and also folks like Bateman who won a district that Trump lost by 15. But nobody was really focusing on the NJ legislative races.

              The swings in Virginia were simply not that massive. You’re talking about a couple points difference from 2016. The ‘massive swing’ argument is much better targeted at the earlier elections this year like SC-05. Northam won 58 delegate seats but also I believe a similar proportion of seats in the State Senate (drawn by Democrats)…so basically it functioned as if the map wasn’t gerrymandered at all.

              This is all 20/20 hindsight of course….but the VA Rs drew a map to only perform with low turnout. Some of those districts were voting Dem for President back in 2008 long before Trump even became a Republican.

  • Indy1975a November 10, 2017 at 11:16 pm

    #2- why is 4 the magic number?
    #3- Not winning Congress doesn’t avoid major losses however. For example, if Hillary Clinton had done 1% better nationally and barely won, the Ds would be looking at huge losses in the Senate (60 would be a lock for the Rs and as many as 65 within reach). The Rs are pretty close to maxed out in the House, but 250-255 is not out of the question.


    Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • segmentation_fault November 10, 2017 at 11:56 pm

      Clinton barely winning with GOP Senate (1% swing not enough to elect Feingold and McGinty) would have been pretty miserable for Democrats. Most assumed Democrats would have the Senate if Clinton won and would be able to replace 3 or 4 SCOTUS justices in 2017.

      • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 9:01 am

        Even w/ Feingold and McGinty, there was no guarantee that Joe Manchin would vote to support (a) nominees to the left of Merrick Garland, and (b) elimination of the filibuster for Supreme Court justices. Furthermore, you would have had a special election for Kaine’s seat in 2017, which the R likely wins if they nominate someone other than Corey Stewart.
        My guess is that the McConnell would have let Garland (even with the current Senate) through in exchange for something else, but would have blocked any future nominees.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • segmentation_fault November 11, 2017 at 10:31 am

          In that case, if you assume Clinton would have been a one term president, Ginsburg and Breyer may have had to live to their 90s (2025 or 2029?) to see a Dem senate again. And Kennedy would have almost certainly been replaced with a Republican.

  • Midnight901 November 10, 2017 at 11:19 pm

    What do people here read into Jill Vogel getting more raw votes than Ed Gillespie?

    • davybaby November 10, 2017 at 11:32 pm

      That Vogel was “Generic R”?

      • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 11:38 pm

        Wouldn’t Adams be a better fit for Generic R?


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 11:39 pm

      Fairfax was certainly the most liberal of the 3 Statewide D’s.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Boehnerwasright November 11, 2017 at 2:30 am

      Fairfax was the most liberal candidate of the three without ever being elected to a office before. I think most people saw Fairfax as the weakest candidate and he won with the smallest margin of the three.
      More interesting is that Herring(Incumbent AG) barely outperformed Fairfax as an incumbent. He just won barely in 2013 and underperformed again this election. Adams was not that great of a candidate, so I would guess Herring is doing something wrong and running against him in 2021 may be good for republicans.

      • rdw72777 November 11, 2017 at 5:52 am

        Who is running against Herring that can win. I mean by then it’ll be over a decade since a Republican has won statewide.

        • Tekzilla November 11, 2017 at 8:25 am

          Not to mention it might not be Herring. It might Periello or Levar Stoney.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • HS November 11, 2017 at 1:36 pm

          Virginia is on its way to M.D. status with the influx of new voters.

          However, with that said, the VA Governors race in 4 years will certainly still be competitive. In M.D. the Republicans have had 2 Governors under far worse circumstances (they also should have won in 1994 and were competitive in 1998). And let’s not forget MA, where the GOP has dominated the Governors office since 1990.

        • fzw November 11, 2017 at 3:36 pm

          The obvious choice would be Scott Taylor if he survives 2018 and 2020, since after Tuesday, there’s a very high chance his seat will be drawn into a blue one come redistricting. Comstock is all but a goner before then.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • shamlet November 11, 2017 at 3:58 pm

            If I’m Comstock I might be seriously considering retirement now and just launching a 3-year gubernatorial campaign.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • davybaby November 11, 2017 at 4:40 pm

              Running against Kaine in ’18 would be suicidal.

              • fzw November 11, 2017 at 5:07 pm

                Sure, but the alternative is Kaine thumping Stewart by double digits and taking down Taylor in CD-2 with him.


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

                • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 7:22 pm

                  I’ll be blunt, I would probably donate a token amount to Kaine (even though he doesn’t need the money) just to oppose the Bannonite Corey Stewart. I really hope Comstock runs, although I’m not sure she will win the primary.


                  Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

                • Tekzilla November 12, 2017 at 9:37 am

                  Pretty sure she cares about her own career more than Taylor’s. The Gwen Graham model is her best bet IMO.


                  36/M/NY-01 (D)

                  • HS November 12, 2017 at 12:00 pm

                    That is 100%. Comstock is a totally political person; we are not discussing someone who really cares about the issues. She will do what is best for her, regardless.

                    I don’t see why running for Kaine’ s seat makes any sense for her. She isn’t going to win, or even do particularly well in that race. I think it is far more likely she runs for Governor in 4 years than that.

                    But I also don’t know that retiring now gets her the Governorship. She isn’t Gwen Graham, with a well-known name whose father was a popular former Governor and Senator. I think she will have to gut it out, and hope that she can beat the Democrat next year. A victory there is the only thing that sets her up to run statewide.

    • prsteve11 November 11, 2017 at 4:37 am

      That Ed Gillespie wasn’t as good a candidate as many suggest. I think part of why he lost is because he tried to have it both ways – using wedge issues and supposedly supporting Trump while at the same time holding him at arm’s length. He may have ended up with the worst of both worlds and just sort of imploded.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • rdw72777 November 11, 2017 at 5:55 am

        For the most part no one RRH fell in love with Gillespie for anything more than the 2914 result which now seem kind of confirmed as a fluke. His fundraising was poor. He didn’t really get a single issue to stick with voters. And the optimism that the ad was going to hand him the election because they both ran meh campaigns was misguided at best.

        In hindsight he never really had a chance in this environment with the campaign he ran, few of us thought it would be this bad but a loss is a loss so bqhwhtvr.

      • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 9:06 am

        I disagree with this. I don’t think Gillespie was a bad candidate at all; while I think Northam was frankly an awful candidate (although some of the stuff does by his side like the LVF ad wasn’t entirely his fault). Gillespie appeared to get more raw votes in Northern Virginia than Cuccinelli did in 2013. He mostly turned out his voters. Gillespie would have won in a neutral environment.
        It was just a bad political environment that produced this result. President Trump was the problem, not Gillespie.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Boehnerwasright November 11, 2017 at 2:25 pm

        I think it is hard to tell how good/bad a candidate or their campaign is, especially in an off year election where it is harder to nail down what a generic D/R might get.
        But looking at fundamentals I would guess that Northam should have won by somwhere around 7-13 points. He was scandal free, got already elected statewide once in 2013 and was part of the popular McAuliff administration. The econemy/employment rate looked good both in VA and the USA. Trump is quite unpopular and a bad fit for a light blue suburban state like Virgina. His biography as a army doctor was very good especially in comparison to Gillespie who was never elected in VA and was a former lobbyist/RNC head.

        From what I read on this site most complains about Northam were the following:
        – Not very engaging/bad public speaker
        – Flip flopped on sanctuary cities/had no good answer on that topic
        – Flip flopped on his support for taking down monuments
        – Ran an ad(we don’t know how often it aired) where he promised to work with Trump
        – LVF ad
        – His ad in general were rather boring/standard
        – He was a moderate who excited nobody

        While I agree with some points especially the sanctuary cities mistakes I feel like people forget how Warner/Kaine/McAuliff won their gov/senate races. They ran to the middle and were a safe choice for a suburban swing voters. While Northam got a lot of help from an unpopular Trump why change a formular that worked for past statewide elected dems?
        And while Northam had some misssteps how important were the topics where he made mistakes? There are no sanctuary cities in VA and the amount of illegal(latino) immigrants in VA is low from what I can tell. Same for monuments where Northam reversed himself fast to neutralize the topic. I doubt many swing voters care much about monuments.Running an ad where he promised to work with Trump helped with his moderate appeal and might be neutral overall in terms of votes.
        The LVF ad was not great but such a tiny buy very few people saw it or knew about it and Northam could distance himself from an outside group.

        But I feel the way underestimated advantage for Northam being a bland moderate is not giving your opponent an opening for effective attack ads. Just running an uneventful campaign very likely gives Northam the win with such good fundamentals.
        I doubt Gillespie was running his more trumpian ads like MS-13, sanctuary cities or attacks on restoring voting rights because he thinks they are that effective but what else should he run on?
        Attacking Northam as to liberal for VA won’t work and attacks on the sucessfull McAuliff administration would likely help Northam not hurt him.

        In regards to Gillespie I feel like he was overestimated because the races was viewed through the lens of an race where the political environment was neutral and the better campaign would win. With almost all of the fundamentals in favor of Northam we should not have looked at if Gillespie is running the better campaign but if he running a way better campaign to overcome the advantage Northam had.
        And in this regard Gillespie was lacking. He was outraised by Northam which as an ex-RNC head, Bush aid and lobbyist is a sign of weakness. (https://www.vpap.org/offices/governor/media-buys/).
        He ran a disciplined campaign which rarely made news good or bad and didn’t talk much to the media. I know that he had a more moderate standard republican stump speech and mostly avoided Trump/trumpian topics in his personal apperances, but I doubt many voters knew much about him besides what they saw about him in ads.

    • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 1:24 pm

      I think Gillespie became a “Trump stand-in” for some voters and they voted against him as a result. Having done that then they either didn’t bother to vote further downballot or they switched over to Vogel who was seen as more of a generic Repub. Also a small percentage of Northam voters may have voted against Fairfax because he is Black, although there is no way of knowing that for sure.

      • Midnight901 November 11, 2017 at 5:19 pm

        Vogel was openly and explicitly a bigger Trump supporter than Gillespie, so I don’t know how that works. Do you think voters just didn’t know about her public statements in support of Trump?

        • TexasR November 11, 2017 at 5:56 pm

          Given that it was a lower profile race that got less media coverage, yes, I think that that’s exactly what happened.


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          Be careful what you wish for

        • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 7:18 pm

          This was the first time I heard about it. My guess is that most voters didn’t realize that she was a big Trump supporter (unlike someone like Corey Stewart, whom if he is the nominee, I will donate money to his opponent.)


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Izengabe November 11, 2017 at 7:57 pm

        And Gillespie only confirmed that “Trump stand-in” by running on Trump issues. In hindsight I would argue the MS-13 stuff backfired. Gillespie would have been a lot better off not basing his campaign on sanctuary cities and other Trumpy issues because it clearly did not work.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • TexasR November 11, 2017 at 8:11 pm

          As Politico posited in a recent article, “there is no Trumpism without Trump.”


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          Be careful what you wish for

  • Tekzilla November 10, 2017 at 11:40 pm

    Gravis has an AL-SEN poll coming and if I’m reading their tweets right it sounds like they’ll have Moore up big and people trusting him. They did pretty well in NJ and VA this week.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • davybaby November 11, 2017 at 2:10 am

    Ad ad just appeared on this page for the “Spa by Ivanka Trump,” at the Trump hotel in D.C. Thanks, Google!

  • prsteve11 November 11, 2017 at 4:49 am

    1. Obviously, the VA Gov race. I knew better but I got my hopes up about a Republican winning statewide in Virginia, which is no longer a purple state or even a ‘light’ blue state but just plain blue, imo. Not CA or NY blue, of course, but still blue enough to be out of reach for the GOP in even more favorable election years. The fact that the GOP did so poorly in the HoD is disappointing but shouldn’t be surprising. To think that the GOP could maintain anything close to a 66-34 majority in a blue state is ridiculous. Don’t forget that while President Trump lost the state by more than 5 points, exit polling suggested he would have lost it by an even wider margin in a two-way race which underscores my point.

    2. Probably the one that was mentioned the least: UT-03. Almost nobody talked about it because it didn’t fit the hyperventilating narrative of the Dems winning everything and that the world is crashing down for Republicans. You might say that Utah is too Republican to take seriously but the Dem was apparently quite well funded and it wasn’t even close. I think that this bodes well for similar or even less Republican districts in 2018.

    3. Not as much as people think, imo. Most of the so-called Dem mini-wave occurred in states that are hostile or less favorable for Republicans anyway so reading too much into it is probably unwise. That doesn’t mean not taking it seriously but I think the analyses have been too one-sided.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • rdw72777 November 11, 2017 at 5:58 am

      2017 means Dems will run more candidates in more places. The Virginia outperformance and the Roy Moore madness will bring back a modified 50 state strategy. I don’t think it’ll take back the house but it will certainly be more interesting.

    • Izengabe November 11, 2017 at 8:00 pm

      But Utah is different. In Utah it was the Republicans that were most offended by Trump. They are the ones who have the easiest time telling the difference between him and the local guys.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Republican Michigander November 11, 2017 at 9:19 am

    “””””What was your biggest electoral disappointment this week?”””””

    Downticket Virginia results.
    That depends if an allegation is true. If it is true, than that. As of now, I’m not sold.

    “””””What electoral development gave you the most hope for 2018?”””””
    The leftist write-in candidate for city council didn’t come close to winning a non-partisan seat in one of the towns in my county. That should be a given, but the leftist spent the most money. The fact that I had to think hard to look for an answer to this shows that this isn’t a good elections week.

    “””””What does the 2017 results mean for 2018?”””””
    It means that the R’s need to get their crap together.
    A. The left is energized. We knew that would happen, which means if the rest of the county doesn’t show up to vote and vote for the R’s, we are in trouble in 2018.

    B. I’ll stand by what I said 6 months ago. The way a wave election will happen is if Congress doesn’t start sending good legislation to Trump’s desk to sign. If that doesn’t happen, the independents will say that these guys don’t have their shit together and will fire their asses, either by voting D OR by staying home.

    I have a Governor, US Senate, Sec of State, AG, 2-3 potentially difficult house defenses (MI-11, MI-6, and MI-8 in that order), and the entire Michigan state legislature up for election. I’d rather not be handicapped by the keystone cops in Washington if I can help it. It makes my job harder.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • HS November 11, 2017 at 2:01 pm

      As always, you and I think alike.

      Trump is not a help, but I am especially annoyed by McConnell, who can’t get his people in line on the issues, and keeps showing his political stupidity over and over again. He campaigned for 7 years on Obama Care repeal and didn’t even have the general outline of a plan? Stupid and despicable. And I know for a fact he did nothing to pass the Graham-Santorum Obama Care repeal act, which was the 2nd try at repeal. He should have been able to persuade/play hardball with Paul, Murkowski, and Collins (only McCain was really unpersuadable, as you can’t punish him long-term).

      Further, politically speaking, it was very predictable that McConnell unleashing a negative assault on Brooks in Alabama would rebound against Strange, since there was a third candidate in the mix, and Strange had his own serious problems. And Moore, the third candidate, had won statewide twice before, so he was no O’Donnell, who couldn’t win (and especially he could win the GOP primary). McConnell should not be getting involved in such races (unless it is behind the scenes) where there was no real incumbent.

      When it comes to the GOP leadership, it seems that “nobody can play this game.” If McConnell and the others, including Trump and Ryan, don’t shape up and get things done, they will lose their majorities, and deservingly so. (Worse, if they lose, the Dems will continue to implement their hard left agenda.) I am beyond disgusted with the GOP’s so far pathetic performances.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    Here’s some info on what will happen with 3 Va HoD seats where the GOP is leading by very slender margins (+13,+84 and +115) and could determine ultimately who controls the House of Delegates. The recanvasses have essentially been completed and the next step is the counting of provisional ballots which will start on Monday. People have to cast provisional ballots for a variety of reasons, but mainly because their names don’t appear on the registration rolls, they did not bring proper photo ID or there is confusion as to whether they had already cast absentee ballots. Since Va is a strict photo ID state, those voters that did not present acceptable photo ID on election day must submit acceptable photo ID to the local elections board by Monday for their vote to count. So for instance in HoD district 94, where the Repub only leads by 13 votes, there are about 50 provisional ballots, but it is likely a good percentage will not be accepted. Generally speaking, provisional ballots tend to lean Dem.

    Then when all the provisional ballots are counted the local boards of elections must certify the results, which I think must be done no later than Nov. 20. At that point if the margin is less than 1% between the candidates (which is the case with these 3 races so far) the trailing candidate may request a recount within 10 days of certification. Three judges form a recount board and appoint election officials to conduct the recount. It is possible to appeal the result of the recount if a candidate feels there are errors. So while we will know the provisional ballot results next week, if there is a recount it may take a little while before we know the results and who controls the House of Delegates. My own take on this is that while District 94 which has the Repub ahead by only 13 votes could go either way, the other two districts where the GOP margins are 84 and 115 votes are likely to stay as Repub victories. So I think in the end the HoD will either be 51-49 GOP or 50-50.

    https://patch.com/virginia/kingstowne/these-3-races-would-flip-virginias-house-delegates

    • lordpet8 November 11, 2017 at 1:46 pm

      I think I remember hearing that there were some votes that were’nt counted in district 94 (where voters used a ball point pen instead of felt pen). So it may hinge on if those votes are counted or not

      • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 2:27 pm

        I assume issues of this nature will be resolved by the recount court. But without knowing how many questioned votes are involved or if these ballots lean more to one party than the other, it is hard to say what impact they may have.

    • roguemapper November 11, 2017 at 2:57 pm

      In 2013 Herring gained a net 60 votes in HD-94 for the AG recount.


      Dem NC-11

  • RogueBeaver November 11, 2017 at 1:02 pm

    Ivey spox says she won’t move the date. https://twitter.com/AlexPappas/status/929406693255106565


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 2:11 pm

    Well although the voters of Maine last Tuesday voted for Medicaid expansion 59% to 41%, that doesn’t mean it will be happening soon. The catch is it is no longer totally “free” federal funds, but the state must provide a 5% match (which will soon go up to 10%). Gov LePage has said he will veto any state matching funding for Medicaid if it raises taxes or raids the state surplus fund account. It may not be that easy for the legislature to find a way to fund it then. Since the legislature is narrowly divided between the two parties, it is likely his veto would be upheld if he thinks taxes will be raised or the surplus fund account raided. A ballot measure law would normally go into effect 45 days after the next legislative session convened in January and then the Gov would have 180 days to implement the law. But LePage could upset the apple cart by vetoing state matching funding for Medicaid because without the state match the Feds cannot provide the additional funds for Medicaid expansion. Things could well wind up in court.

    http://www.pressherald.com/2017/11/08/lepage-says-he-wont-expand-medicaid-in-maine-unless-legislature-funds-it/

  • shamlet November 11, 2017 at 2:29 pm

    2 SC legislators have been arrested in the last week: State Sen. Paul Campbell (R) for drunk driving and State Rep. Jerry Govan (D) for (non-sexual) assault. http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article183998816.html


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • jncca November 11, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    And CA has another. GOP this time:

    http://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/political-notebook/article180129271.html

    Asm. Devon Mathis (R-Devin Nunes’s district because it’s Devin/Devons all around) is accused of sexual assault as well as child abuse.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • californianintexas November 11, 2017 at 6:36 pm

      Domino effect I see.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • cer November 11, 2017 at 5:00 pm

    CB Polling
    Moore 51%
    Jones 48%

    https://twitter.com/CBPolling/status/929448362868334592


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • roguemapper November 11, 2017 at 5:38 pm

      FWIW, their final poll of the VA governor’s race released on Monday was Northam 51 – Gillespie 49.


      Dem NC-11

      • cer November 11, 2017 at 5:42 pm

        I just throw them out there unless someone like Moshe beats me to it. 🙂

        I still have a hunch that in this very red state, Moore pulls it out.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • roguemapper November 11, 2017 at 5:46 pm

          Oh, I’m confident even Alabama wouldn’t elect a Republican child molester. The question at hand is whether a quarter of Alabama Republican voters will consider Roy Moore to be a child molester on Dec 12.


          Dem NC-11

          • cer November 11, 2017 at 5:51 pm

            Me to, but my bet is that even if he doesn’t step aside and allow for a credible alternative write in to be the GOP alternative, most AL Republican voters will think it’s nothing more than a MSM conspiracy.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 9:00 pm

        I’ve never heard of CB Polling, unless they also go by another name. Their poll is not in the RCP average for the Va Gov race.

    • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 7:12 pm

      Almost no undecideds? That doesn’t seem right with Moore as the candidate.

      I am sure that Moore will win, albeit narrowly. If write-in votes are counted, Moore might not break 50. But I’d give odds between 10-1 and 20-1 that Moore wins.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • fzw November 11, 2017 at 7:20 pm

        Depends on if a plurality of voters are like cer and brush it off as a media hit job. But if this race does unfold like the Missouri Senate race then Moore might already be cooked beyond repair.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 7:41 pm

          Alabama voters are far less elastic than Missouri. I expect most R voters to brush it off as a media hit job, but that by itself may not be enough for Moore to win. But even among R voters (and R leaners) who believe the story, I expect many to vote for Moore as the lesser evil to a liberal D, and then another subset to write-in someone or not vote. Some may even vote for Moore with the hope that he will be forced to resign sometime afterwards.

          I just don’t think that there are many voters who leaned Moore last Wednesday who will vote for Jones. I see Jones’ ceiling at around 43-45%. Now if the Ds nominated a conservative D (even someone like Joe Manchin) it may well be different. Or even if Jones were campaigning as a conservative. But hearing his liberal views right out of his own mouth makes him a nonstarter for Alabama even against Roy Moore.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

          • fzw November 11, 2017 at 7:58 pm

            Or many Republicans stay home instead of voting for Moore. And that’s probably the only way Moore loses and Jones wins. And no silly write-in candidacy is going to win. You either want Moore to win, or you don’t. And Doug Jones is the only other candidate who can win.


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

            • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 8:36 pm

              Yeah Jones is too liberal for many Ala voters, so those who supported Moore but don’t now are more likely to just stay home then come out and vote for Jones. Whether Moore can stay in the race depends on whether or not more accusations surface that he had sex with girls under the age of consent (so far there is only one accusation). His supporters want to believe the liberal WaPo has done a hit job on Moore, as he claims, but if more stories come out it will make it harder for them to cling to that belief. I agree a write in candidacy is a waste of time. If Moore loses it is in some ways a boon for the GOP, because if he gets in the Senate you know the MSM will focus on him and his far out statements. He is no team player, he is all about Roy Moore.

          • roguemapper November 11, 2017 at 8:03 pm

            Voters who don’t vote are irrelevant because they’re not voters.


            Dem NC-11

            • Republican Michigander November 11, 2017 at 8:17 pm

              “Voters who don’t vote are irrelevant because they’re not voters.”

              I disagree. If I vote 90% of the time, and Moore accuser convinces me, and that’s the only thing on the ballot, I’d be staying home or voting a blank ballot. It’s the protest.


              MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

              • fzw November 11, 2017 at 8:24 pm

                That’s kind of his point?

                IE-that Jones’ 45 or 48% is irrelevant if it is modeling the wrong turnout.


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

    • Izengabe November 11, 2017 at 8:09 pm

      There is NO way Roy Moore wins. This story just dropped and Moore is basically tied with a Democrat in freaking Alabama! It will only get worse. Remember Akin? The polls immediately afterward were not all that bad. It snowballed from there. That will happen here as more shoes drop. Alabama may be inelastic but the good conservative Christian voters of Alabama are not voting for a child molester. And it it insulting to them to think that they would.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Republican Michigander November 11, 2017 at 8:19 pm

        “Alabama may be inelastic but the good conservative Christian voters of Alabama are not voting for a child molester. And it it insulting to them to think that they would.”

        I have no doubt that they wouldn’t vote for a child molester. The question is do the voters believe that he is or not.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Izengabe November 11, 2017 at 9:18 pm

          My hunch is that by election day there will be little doubt about that.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 8:47 pm

        I’ll offer you 10-1 odds that if Roy Moore is in the race on election day, he will win. And I don’t think it is fair to accuse people who predict a Moore win that we are insulting the Alabama electorate.

        Many of the good conservative Christian voters do not believe that Roy Moore is a child molester. Even among those that believe that Moore may have molested a 14 year old 35 years ago, one has to make a judgement call about what is right thing to do. That may be voting for Moore as the lesser evil to a liberal D (and hoping Moore resigns or is expelled afterwards), writing in someone or not voting at all, or voting for Jones as the lesser evil. All of these options are rational ones. Jones is a liberal D whose values (and likely voting record) are completely anathema to many Alabama voters.

        Many good conservative Christian voters (including some of my friends at my church) who did not approve of any of President Trump’s behavior or some of his values voted for him because they believed that Trump’s administration would defend religious freedom and represent their values better, even if Trump himself did not. As someone who considers himself a conservative Christian, I did not agree with that viewpoint personally, but I understand it that position at least in the short term.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • segmentation_fault November 11, 2017 at 8:59 pm

          You could easily make the argument that having a loudmouth insane theocrat child molester in your Senate caucus is worse for the Republican Party’s image and policy goals than Senator Doug Jones. Moore will likely refuse to vote for taxes/healthcare/etc on the ground that it’s not conservative enough anyway. If he became a senator he would be an albatross around the neck of every Republican running in 2018.

          By the way it’s so insane that we’re debating the merits of having a child molester in the US Senate.

          • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 9:03 pm

            That’s a valid position, and one I don’t disagree with. I’m just saying that the other position of electing Moore to stop Jones and pushing him to resign or be removed is valid too. And many Alabama voters may take that position, and they aren’t bad people for doing so.


            Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

            • segmentation_fault November 11, 2017 at 9:09 pm

              Given that he was forcibly removed from the last two offices he held, I don’t think he is likely to resign.

              • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 9:15 pm

                Then he will be forcibly removed for the third time. His choice.


                Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • fzw November 11, 2017 at 9:00 pm

          Uh, where the hell do you draw the line on making excuses for voting for someone? If child molestation isn’t it, what the hell is it? If you can justify that, you can probably justify murder too.

          People who use that kind of tortured logic to justify voting for someone like that should absolutely be judged as terrible people.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 10:28 pm

            Considering that many religious voters believe Democrats are taking their tax dollars to dismember babies, I assume they can go up to anything short of infanticide/murder.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • roguemapper November 12, 2017 at 5:08 pm

              Well, fwiw, the White House evidently disagrees with that: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/white-house-legislative-boss-marc-short-theres-a-special-place-in-hell-for-child-molesters/article/2640451

              White House legislative affairs director Marc Short said … “I think the notion of innocent defenseless children being molested is one of the most painful thoughts a parent could have… I think there’s a special place in hell for those who actually perpetrate these crimes. And I think Roy Moore has to do more explaining than he has done so far… No Senate seat is more important than child pedophilia… But, having said that, he hasn’t been proved guilty… We have to afford him the chance to defend himself.”


              Dem NC-11

  • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 8:14 pm

    Some interesting results from the Va Gov race exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research for the National Election Pool:

    -Gillespie won the white vote 57-42 but Northam won Blacks 87-12 and Hispanics 67-32

    -Gillespie only narrowly won independents 50-47

    -18% of voters decided who to vote for in the last week and they went for Northam 61-37

    -41% of the electorate was Dem, a record high, while 30% was Repub

    -34% of those who voted said opposition to Trump was a major factor in their vote, while 17% said support for Trump was a major factor. The remainder said it was not a major factor.

    -54% of those with incomes over $100,000 voted for Northam.

    Of Health Care, Immigration, Gun Control, Abortion, and Taxes, the highest percentage by far, 39%, said Healthcare was the most important issue to them

    So the electorate was more Dem than 2013 and Northam did well among affluent voters who at one time would be considered likely to go GOP. The undecided shifted heavily to Northam in the last week which is one reason I think he did better than polls predicted. Gillespie essentially split independents with Northam, and a Repub needs to do well with independents to win. Hatred of Trump was a key factor in turnout for considerably more people than support for Trump.

    Of course exit polls have their limitations but for now that is what we have.

    • Midnight901 November 11, 2017 at 8:54 pm

      Gillespie got a higher percentage of the Latino vote than Ken Cuccinelli did despite more voter turnout than 2013 and the post-Trump environment. I think that reiterates that a surge of white liberal suburbanites was the deciding factor.

      • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 9:10 pm

        Yeah the exit poll also only has Latinos at 6% of voters, so it was the big white suburban liberal vote that sunk Gillespie. I think the fact that Northam got 54% of voters making over $100,000 in the exit poll is an indicator of that.

  • cer November 11, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    Could someone like Rep Roby force Moore out if she ran as a write in or would it literally take someone like Sessions????


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Indy1975a November 11, 2017 at 8:58 pm

      It would take Sessions. He’s probably the only person who Moore would step down for, or could beat Jones as a write-in.
      Jones will probably get 40% against Moore and a write-in. So you will need someone who would get at least 40%, which means limiting Moore’s total to 20%. Given that Moore is more popular among the 60% of non-Jones voters than any establishment politician, it’s very hard to get a write-in to win.

      At this point, try to push Moore out, but running a write-in without Moore out is a waste of energy and possibly risks handing the race to Jones. If Moore doesn’t drop out, the strategy should be to let him win and consider expelling him after he takes his seat in the Senate.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 9:21 pm

        I don’t see Sessions running as a write-in for the Senate. He very much wants to be AG and is willing to put up with Trump’s remarks so he can stay in that position.

    • SlippingJimmy November 12, 2017 at 1:24 am

      Hell, run Nick Saban or Gus Malzahn.

      That’s probably what it’d take.


      Republican, TX-22.

      • davybaby November 12, 2017 at 1:47 am

        They have too much to lose.

  • segmentation_fault November 11, 2017 at 8:24 pm

    This tweet makes me feel so good about our foreign policy.

    @realDonaldTrump
    Why would Kim Jong-un insult me by calling me “old,” when I would NEVER call him “short and fat?” Oh well, I try so hard to be his friend – and maybe someday that will happen!
    4:48 PM – 11 Nov 2017 from Vietnam

    • cer November 11, 2017 at 8:27 pm

      Overall it was a pretty decent trip supposedly minus these tweets.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Manhatlibertarian November 11, 2017 at 8:50 pm

      Well maybe Trump could get Kim Jong-un on one of those “makeover” reality TV shows where he loses weight and gets a new hip wardrobe and most importantly a new hair style. Maybe that will put him in a better mood and he won’t sit around thinking about shooting rockets at Guam.

    • MosheM November 11, 2017 at 9:31 pm

      What a baby that we have for president. But sure, Trumpkins, please defend him again.


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • cer November 11, 2017 at 10:05 pm

        I think there are much bigger issues out there to talk about instead of what he tweets at times, but by all means knock yourself out.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Tekzilla November 12, 2017 at 9:46 am

          Yea, what the President says doesn’t mean a darn thing, who cares?


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • cer November 12, 2017 at 11:17 am

            It doesn’t seem to be stopping him from accomplishing things overseas, so I bet other then the MSM, most folks can see through this.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • andyroo312 November 12, 2017 at 2:35 pm

              “Most folks,” as in the 40 percent of Americans who’ll fawn over Trump no matter what he does or says.


              MA-7

              • cer November 12, 2017 at 2:43 pm

                Again if you want to obsess over Trump’s tweets be my guess, but imho many more things to worry about like pushing through the GOP agenda.


                Conservative first, Republican second!

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 12, 2017 at 4:22 pm

      Actually, a pretty smart thing to do to despots. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler_Has_Only_Got_One_Ball

      In contrast, Putin’s “macho man” image bolsters his public support.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • dpmapper November 11, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    I like Hugh Hewitt’s idea for Alabama. Strange resigns his seat, causing a new vacancy and a new appointed senator. That moots the pending election and causes a new special election, complete with primary…

    • cer November 11, 2017 at 10:06 pm

      So, is this legal, and if so, how soon would Strange have to quit?


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 10:32 pm

      You’d lose a vote for tax reform.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • cer November 11, 2017 at 10:49 pm

        Have a replacement ready to go immediately.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • edtorres04 November 11, 2017 at 10:50 pm

        Someone would be reappointed soon though

      • TexasR November 11, 2017 at 10:57 pm

        Are we sure Roy Moore would vote for tax reform? I honestly think he would vote against any tax bill “from the right” because there’s no constitutional way to provide a tax credit for people who display the Ten Commandments on their property.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

    • rdw72777 November 12, 2017 at 8:25 am

      Delays the inevitable. I think Moore would win a primary again, even a 1-on-1 in the first round. His support base is too deep.

      • krazen1211 November 12, 2017 at 6:38 pm

        Eh, Moore has been beaten in a Republican primary before. He came in 4th in the primary in 2010.

        Still, all this cancelling the election talk is complete banana republic stuff. The left monkeyed with MA Senate replacement times multiple times over a decade depending on circumstances, but even that isn’t just flat out voiding an election when it became apparently that Coakley might lose.

        I don’t believe any member of Congress has been expelled for prior conduct unrelated to his/her election. Folks better be really sure before they ring that bell, because the left controls the media and will use that precedent against other Republicans.

        • roguemapper November 12, 2017 at 7:00 pm

          Besides the 14 traitors who were expelled during the Civil War, the Senate has only expelled William Blount in 1797 for conspiring to assist the UK against the US. The House has expelled 5 members: three Civil War traitors and two members expelled for bribery (Myers in 1980 and Traficant in 2002).


          Dem NC-11

          • davybaby November 12, 2017 at 11:20 pm

            It would be near impossible to expel Moore. Still, Senate Republicans don’t need to admit him into their caucus.

    • Jon November 12, 2017 at 10:47 am

      Won’t work; the one case in which a new “writ of election” isn’t needed in the UK from an MP resigning (actually accepting a crown position with no responsibilities for a few hours) is if there was already general election scheduled and he’s not a listed candidate for that upcoming general election.

      At most the Governor might appoint a replacement Senator if really needed (e.g. Senate actually still in session); but would have little basis to cancel the existing shortly upcoming election in which the person resigning isn’t even a candidate.


      45, M, MO-02

  • MosheM November 11, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Last Night, @ChesterfieldVa posted sharply revised totals for Southside Precinct (213) resulting in 750 swing in favor of @RalphNortham. First Dem to carry Chesterfield since 1961 https://t.co/Pi4xSLnFHv https://t.co/mFl4pRObN8


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • GoldenStatesman November 11, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article184168596.html
    CA St Sen Mendoza (D-Artesia) may be in hotter water than before..a second intern has come out with allegations.


    24, R, CA-38, Cubano, Community College Trustee

  • MosheM November 11, 2017 at 10:38 pm

    JMC will show Jones ahead tomorrow.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 10:46 pm

      Unless the GOP cancels this election, they’re losing the Senate in 2018. The only way to win is to dump tens of millions into Alabama to attack Jones. They’re probably not going to want to do that.

      Not to mention the conventional wisdom will be that Moore lost because the Republican agenda is unpopular (technically half-true). Which sends every Republican congressman fleeing from tax reform and anything else. And in response, every big-pocketed donor will abandon the party. And then the GOP, like the Whigs, is screwed. We need both the donor class and grassroots voters, and we’ll have neither.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • cer November 11, 2017 at 10:53 pm

        None of really know what will happen in 2018, but Alabama is a mess.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 11:08 pm

          There is literally no reason to believe it won’t be 2010 in reverse. The presidential approval ratings, the generic ballot, the vastly differential turnout in special elections. And to an extent, the opposition getting obsessed with insane conspiracy theories and fake news stories. It’s the exact same. Donald Trump is a lot more like Barack Obama than either man would care to admit.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Izengabe November 11, 2017 at 10:53 pm

        The only way the GOP win is with a write-in candidate. Keeping a child molester under 20% of the vote really shouldnt be to hard to do.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 11:02 pm

          Accused child molester is the problem. More than 20% of the electorate will believe he’s innocent and will continue to do so in the absence of very convincing evidence.

          For gods sake, a third of the country thought OJ was innocent.

          Conservative Republicans really tend to be ridiculously out-of-touch on how most people think. They might be individualistic iconoclasts who always voice their deeply-pondered beliefs, but most people are not.

          If the hometown boy is accused of a crime, the basic reaction for most people is to disbelieve. We saw that with OJ and we’ll see it here.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • cer November 11, 2017 at 10:51 pm

      We really don’t know what JMC will show tomorrow, but it will be really close either way I bet.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • edtorres04 November 11, 2017 at 10:52 pm

        Enten is saying Jones is ahead in that poll

        • cer November 11, 2017 at 11:01 pm

          If true, I bet they are both under 50.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 10:39 pm

    I’m not that disappointed by Virginia since the GOP just failed to do better than what they should be doing. There isn’t a stampede of Trump voters to Northam. There was just elevated white liberal turnout and not so great conservative turnout. Which makes sense. We saw the converse in Scott Brown’s 2010 victory. And we saw this in almost every special election besides GA-6.

    The GOP has no accomplishments right now. There is no reason for the R base to turn out. They probably won’t turn out in 2018 either. The only hope for the GOP is to replicate 2012 in 2020 by actually passing bills.

    Hate tax reform all you want, but torpedo it and we’ll get Bernie-style tax hikes in 2021.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy November 11, 2017 at 11:31 pm

    Interesting article on how Donald Trump won despite possibly being a candidate that the majority of the party did not want to win.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268017300782

    Of course, this is by design. The GOP primary of 2016 was designed by the party establishment after 2012, when they thought that a long primary fight hurt Romney and a future primary fight could elect someone like Ted Cruz. Thus, the party establishment designed a primary system where a moderate Republican with high name recognition would immediately build an insurmountable lead early on and swat aside a candidate from the hardline right-wing Tea Party side of the party, even if that candidate was more popular within the party.

    Of course, this is exactly what happened. The Republican establishment faltered only because their ideology is so toxic, they can’t even get that bare minimum tiny slice of voters. Jeb! could have won with 20% of the vote. Too bad for him that he had 3% instead.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM November 12, 2017 at 11:05 am

    JMC Poll finds Jones (D) leading Moore (R) 46%-42% in #ALSen https://t.co/UcbNYpiZeb


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • GOPTarHeel November 12, 2017 at 11:07 am

      Laura Ingraham, Sarah Palin, Breitbart, Steve Bannon-congrats! You’re going to lose us a Senate seat in Alabama!


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Midnight901 November 12, 2017 at 11:10 am

        Ingraham supported Mo Brooks in the primary, as did Coulter and Hannity.

        • cer November 12, 2017 at 11:19 am

          Both still under 50%…. so believe it or not Moore isn’t in dreadful shape, YET.

          However, still need a positive alternative write in!


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • GOPTarHeel November 12, 2017 at 11:49 am

          And who did they support in the runoff?


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Chris Rawlings November 12, 2017 at 12:30 pm

      Halfway to double digits. Give it a month and there it is.


    • Manhatlibertarian November 12, 2017 at 1:25 pm

      The JMC poll shows a Mack McBride with 2% voter support in the Alabama Senate Special Election. He is an African American write-in candidate but I don’t know what his specific views are. There is also a Libertarian write-in candidate, Ron Bishop, who is running as a write-in because he couldn’t get enough signatures to be on the ballot. A third write-in, businessman Mac Watson, is a McMullin supporter. There is a fourth write-in candidate, Eulas Kirtdoll, but I have no information on him. If the Senate election remains close as the most recent polls indicate, these declared write in candidates could play a role in the outcome.

      If Moore does get elected to the Senate he should be barred from joining the GOP caucus. Even before the accusation of molesting an underage girl, he made some really off the wall statements like 9/11 was God’s punishment for a sinful US. IMO the GOP is better off with 51 Senate votes than 52 Senate votes including Moore.

    • segmentation_fault November 12, 2017 at 1:32 pm

      If Moore refuses to step down and more allegations come out, I think Jones could end up winning by double digits due to demoralized Republicans.

      • cer November 12, 2017 at 1:40 pm

        Moore is still a slight favorite regardless.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • andyroo312 November 12, 2017 at 2:38 pm

          Not if he’s stuck in the low-40s. At this point, I see this thing as a jump ball but, if more accusations surface, Jones could totally charge ahead.


          MA-7

    • roguemapper November 12, 2017 at 5:59 pm

      That poll has 3% of LVs age 18-34 and a total of 22% age 18-54? There is no way that’s remotely accurate. It’ll be more like 15% age 18-34 and 55% age 18-54.


      Dem NC-11

  • shamlet November 12, 2017 at 11:15 am

    Shameless plug for my quick new diary on gubernatorial power comparison: http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2017/11/12/gubernatorial-power-comparison/


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • MosheM November 12, 2017 at 11:59 am

      Thanks!


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • district1 November 12, 2017 at 2:15 pm

      I was looking for New Jersey at #1, and you put it up high and then some 😉


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • MosheM November 12, 2017 at 2:00 pm

    In #NJGov, despite losing Morris County by 8%, Murphy carried #NJ11. Suburban seat that Trump held, but underperformed in last year. https://t.co/vq5gVyqZsW


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM November 12, 2017 at 2:58 pm

    Very interesting on turnout re VA

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/929799962241765378


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • reedc November 12, 2017 at 8:49 pm

      In anecdotal evidence, dems knocked on my door at least three times in Roanoke! Southwest VA. Granted I live in the city which is a speck of deep blue in a sea of red, and in a neighborhood even more blue. But I didn’t get a single call, knock or anything from the GOP. Despite having dictated to Gillespie in his senate run. I voted for Northam btw. Gillespie became too Trump-lite for my tastes. I respect his need for a balancing act but I thought it was disingenuous. And I think it turned off a significant number of voters like me without attracting anybody that would’ve otherwise sat out.

      First time I voted god a dem for governor. Though I have voted for plenty in local races and legislative races in Nashville. And Jim Cooper when I lived in Nashville.

  • cer November 12, 2017 at 6:32 pm

    Conservative Mps are 8 VOTES away from forcing a leadership challenge. PM May is in some real trouble it appears.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/europe/2017/11/12/uk-conservative-mps-ready-to-oust-may.html


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • GOPTarHeel November 12, 2017 at 6:55 pm

      Idiots. There is no replacement available and Corbyn would clean the Tories’ clocks.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • cer November 12, 2017 at 6:57 pm

        I wouldn’t be so sure of that because the Tory bench is quite deep.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • cer November 12, 2017 at 7:07 pm

          The main thing that the Tories need to do is increase their support among young voters. Just maybe someone like B. Johnson could do that.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • TexasR November 12, 2017 at 7:08 pm

            Considering the massive age gap in the Brexit results, the best way to do that would be to get a leader who hasn’t been eating the member berries.


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

            • GOPTarHeel November 12, 2017 at 7:12 pm

              Parties that supported Brexit won close to 90% of th vote in this years election. The Lib Dems massively underperformed.


              R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

              • TexasR November 12, 2017 at 7:54 pm

                The total percentage that Labour and the Tories got this year is irrelevant. It doesn’t change the fact that there was a significant loss among Remainers that voted for the Tories in 2015. Slightly more of them went to Labour than to the LibDems.
                Further, the Tories went from a mere 36-32 deficit with Labour among the youth vote in 2015 to a twelve alarm-worthy 66-19 youth vote deficit with Labour this year.
                Recall that not only did the young vote heavily Remain, but that those that voted Labour in 2015 broke 65-35 in favor of Remain.


                Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                Be careful what you wish for

            • Red Oaks November 12, 2017 at 8:29 pm

              I thought you were in favor of free trade and market economics so it’s surprising to hear you recommending a center right party shift in a protectionist and socialist direction by embracing Remain.


              MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

              • TexasR November 12, 2017 at 8:47 pm

                Brexit leading to more trade is an interesting theory. It is, however, a theory that Fortune debunked.


                Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                Be careful what you wish for

                • cer November 12, 2017 at 9:22 pm

                  I’m not quite as down as some are about free trade associated with Brexit.


                  Conservative first, Republican second!

          • GOPTarHeel November 12, 2017 at 7:09 pm

            Lol no. The man has been a disaster as FM and is wildly unpopular. There isn’t much of a bench at all, which is why May won in the first place.


            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

            • cer November 12, 2017 at 7:14 pm

              He is actually extremely popular among Tory voters.


              Conservative first, Republican second!

  • MosheM November 12, 2017 at 7:12 pm

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-11-09/the-brothers-who-bought-south-africa

    Amazing Bloomberg Long Read on the banana republic that is South Africa.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • krazen1211 November 12, 2017 at 7:34 pm

    Emerson has Moore up 10.

    https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/929861343158702081

    Moore 55
    Jones 45

    • cer November 12, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      OMG Moore +10….. with polls like these he’ll never suspend his campaign!

      I keep hoping that Mo Brooks will launch a write in campaign or even AG Sessions will realize that the Alabama GOP needs him and he runs for his old seat.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Manhatlibertarian November 12, 2017 at 8:04 pm

      Last Emerson Va poll had Northam only up by 3 and Vogel and Adams ahead, so I don’t know how reliable they are.

      • roguemapper November 12, 2017 at 8:21 pm

        Well, Emerson had Moore up by 22 in their last poll, but two weeks before that they had Moore up by only 4…


        Dem NC-11

      • roguemapper November 12, 2017 at 8:35 pm

        538 gives Emerson a B, JMC a C, and Opinion Savvy a C-. They don’t have a rating for CB Polling because evidently no one noticed they exist before this week. Perhaps someone should get Q-Pac to conduct an Alabama poll?


        Dem NC-11

        • cer November 12, 2017 at 9:24 pm

          The Q nailed VA…. let them do Alabama.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • cer November 12, 2017 at 9:30 pm

            When I posted that CB Poll the other day, I never heard of them either.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Manhatlibertarian November 12, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    It appears that the House Rules Committee will meet on Weds to deal with the tax bill, so a floor vote could come as early as Thursday.

    Meanwhile Cal GOP Congressman Issa indicated he will not vote for the GOP tax bill; he had voted for the budget bill which enabled a vote on the GOP tax bill. The issue is eliminating the state/local tax deduction. If other Cal Congressmen/women follow his lead the House tax bill could be in trouble. We’ll see.

    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/tax-bill-2017/card/1510069632

    • cer November 12, 2017 at 9:26 pm

      I bet they will cave some more on what blue state GOP members are demanding.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 1:06 am

      I feel like Ryan should really find a way to let the CA republicans who sit in clinton districts vote no on tax reform esp. if SALT is abolished for state income tax. They already voted for the really unpopular AHCA.
      A worst case szenario would be 2 dems in the govenor and senate races crater the GOP turnout while they get hammered for their votes on healthcare and taxes.

      • rdw72777 November 13, 2017 at 1:23 am

        I don’t see how Ryan can let that many people vote against. Now if only 25 come forward from these types of districts it’s easy-peasy but I’d imagine closer to 40 would come forward. Then again I still haven’t heard a peep from the Philly burbs reps so maybe there’s really only 25 who’d want to vote no. Just seems like a really low number to me.

      • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 1:21 pm

        But this doesnt work. The voters who get tax increases because of the Republicans will take out their anger at all Republicans whether they voted for the final tax package or not. Dems who voted against Obamacare went down in the 2010 wave too.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • segmentation_fault November 12, 2017 at 8:50 pm

    Kasich rant on Democrats & Republicans: https://youtu.be/-nnXDh2R-uM?t=4m24s

    Sure sounds like he’s planning to go third party.

    • cer November 12, 2017 at 9:28 pm

      Kasich is becoming more irrelevant by the day, and anyone who supports him are crazy.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • HS November 12, 2017 at 10:21 pm

        Yeah, thank God I didn’t work for him in 2000! (Also, thank god, because I heard he is a hard man to work for in terms of being a jerk to his underlings.) But he isn’t going anywhere. The Dems playing to him won’t vote for him, and he has become a fringe player on the Republican side.

  • RRR November 12, 2017 at 11:28 pm

    1. Rob Astorino’s loss in Westchester, not because of who he is but because of the place.
    2. Some of the Trumpy politicians’ losses in the suburbs teach me that his acolytes won’t be spared fury in 2018.
    3. Armageddon for the white collar suburban GOP—and a loss of the GOP’s political geography advantage by becoming a rural and downscale suburbs-only party.


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

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