Political Roundup for November 13, 2017

Over the weekend in PA-18, State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) took the GOP nomination. Democrats will nominate their contender this coming Sunday. Also check below for our preview of today’s election in Somaliland (where and/or what the heck is that, you ask?… read on).

Now, after a week in which I am reduced to not giving a f* about what happens to the broader GOP while resolving to spend the next year hoping and praying that Larry Hogan will not be doomed by a massive wave, it is time for today’s Roundup…

Briefing: New Nominees for our Anthony Weiner Award for Pervert of the Year:

AL-Sen: A former Roy Moore colleague said that it was “common knowledge” he was interested in high school girls when they worked together as prosecutors. Over the weekend, multiple polls have come out showing the race between Moore and ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D) is a dead heat; in particular, one from JMC Analytics has Jones up 46-42.

CO-Treas: State Rep. Steve Lebsock (D) is under fire for allegedly sexually harassing a fellow lawmaker, State Rep. Faith Winter (D). Lebsock had looked like the Dem front-runner for the open Treasurer seat, but fellow State Rep. Dave Young (D) entered the race last week (perhaps getting tipped off about the allegations?) and now looks likely to be the Dems’ consensus pick. Democratic leaders are now calling for Lebsock’s resignation.

CA-SD-32: State Sen. Tony Mendoza (D) repeatedly attempted to get a young woman interviewing for a staffer job to come home with him to “review her resume”. Mendoza is the roommate of fellow State Sen. and US Senate candidate Kevin DeLeon (D).

CA-LD-26: State Rep. Devon Mathis (R) is under investigation by police for allegedly digitally penetrating a staffer.

MN-SD-54, MN-LD-22B: Two Minnesota legislators are also under fire for harassment. State Rep. Erin Maye-Quade (D) claims she was harassed by both State Sen. Dan Schoen (D) and State Rep. Tony Cornish (R). Allegations against Schoen were also leveld by multiple other women, and allegations against Cornish have been brought by a lobbyist.

Now, in non-perversion news:

Governor:

CA-Gov, CA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Doug Ose (R), who served three terms representing suburban Sacramento in the 90s and 2000s before a failed comeback bid in CA-7 in 2014, is now considering a run for Governor. Ose’s entry as a third Republican would likely completely ensure that two Democrats (and neither of the other two Rs, businessman John Cox (R) and State Rep. Travis Allen (R)) make the general election. But Ose may not need to enter to ensure that: a new USC/LA Times Poll shows LG Gavin Newsom (D) leading the gubernatorial race with 31%, with ex-LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) taking the second slot with 21%. Allen and Cox are banging heads to split the GOP vote with 15% and 11% respectively. Two longer-shot Dems, State Treasurer John Chiang (D) and ex-Superintendent Delaine Eastin (D), are at 12% and 4% respectively. For the Senate race, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) holds a strong lead over State Sen. Kevin DeLeon (D), who is challenging her from the left. Feinstein leads 58-31 in the two-way race.

MN-Gov: Woodbury (pop. 68K) Mayor Mary Guiluiani-Stevens (R) has reserved domain names pertaining to a gubernatorial run, but is so far tight-lipped on her intentions. The mayor of the large eastern Twin Cities suburb would join a crowded field of Hennepin County commissioner and 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson (R), State Sen. David Osmek (R), State Rep. Matt Dean (R), and ex-State Rep. and ex-MNGOP chair Keith Downey (R). State House Speaker Kurt Daudt (R) and ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) are also thought to be considering.

TX-Gov: Democrats continue to cast about for a sacrificial lamb to take on Gov. Greg Abbott (R). The latest name considering making a late entry here is Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D). Valdez is little-known outside of her county, but seems a significantly more credible candidate than investor Andrew White (D), who is the current Dem front-runner on little other than being the son of 80s-era ex-Gov. Mark (D).

Senate:

MA-Sen: Businessman, self-proclaimed “inventor of e-mail”, and Fran Drescher’s ex Shiva Ayyadurai is leaving the crowded GOP primary to take on Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) and running as an Independent. Ayyadurai, a firebrand conservative, was an amusing sideshow in the race but had little institutional support as the primary field filled up with three more connected and traditional candidates, Romney aide Beth Lindstrom (R), State Rep. Geoff Diehl (R), and businessman John Kingston (R). Needless to say, none of these candidates pose a threat to Warren in the general.

NJ-Sen: A juror was dismissed from the corruption trial of Sen. Bob Mendendez (D) last week for a previously-planned vacation; jury deliberations will now start from scratch today. The excused juror, Evelyn Arroyo-Maultsby, said (quite colorfully) that she was a firm “not guilty” vote, but the jury was deadlocked and she expected an ultimate hung jury.

KY-Sen ’22: Sen. Rand Paul (R) has apparently been told that federal charges will be filed against Rene Boucher, a neighbor who attacked Paul and broke four of his ribs last week. Prosecutors likely believe the attack was politically motivated, while Boucher’s attorney says that it was due to a non-sepcific “trivial dispute”.

House:

KY-6: Lexington Mayor Jim Gray (D) is considering a run against Rep. Andy Barr (R). Gray would likely be Democrats’ top recruit for the medium-red seat, as he carried the district in his 2016 Senate run against Sen. Rand Paul (R). However, Gray’s profile as a well-known liberal may make the race more difficult.

TX-21: State Rep. Jason Isaac (R) is the first candidate into the race for Rep. Lamar Smith’s (R) open San Antonio to Austin seat. Isaac represents about 20% of the district and could be a front-runner, but the field for this red seat that swung against Trump could grow significantly.

VA-6: Andy Parker (D), father of Alison Parker, a journalist who was murdered on live TV, is considering a run for this open congressional seat. Alison’s boyfriend Chris Hurst (D) was elected last week to a purple State House seat in the Blacksburg area. Parker would face a much tougher bid for the very conservative district; State Rep. Ben Cline (R) and RNC official Cynthia Dunbar (R) are already in what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary.

State & Local:

FL-AG: State Rep. Ross Spano (R) of suburban Tampa is the latest Republican considering an entry into this primary. Spano would join front-running retired judge Ashley Moody (R), who also hails from Tampa Bay, and fellow State Reps. Jay Fant (R) and Frank White (R). Little-known attorney Ryan Torrens (D) is the only Dem in the race.

GA-PSC: Deal Admin official Tricia Pridemore (R), who lost the 2014 primary for the congressional GA-11, is now running for an open seat on the Public Service Commission. The 5-member, all-GOP board is elected statewide for staggered 6-year terms.

IL-Comp, IL-Treas: Illinois Republicans have found two “C” list candidates to fill out their Row Officer ticket. Ex-State Rep. and 2014 IL-11 nominee Darlene Senger (R) will challenge Comptroller Susana Mendoza (R) and Orland Park councilman Jim Dodge (R) will challenge Treasurer Mike Frerichs (D). Both incumbent Democrats are heavy favorites for re-election in the blue state. They join former congressional candidate Erika Harold (R) for the open AG seat and Grundy DA Jason Helland (R) for SoS as the ILGOP’s presumptive Row Officer slate.

MS-LG: Vicksburg (pop. 23K) Mayor George Flaggs (D) is considering a run for LG in 2019. The moderate Flaggs says he may run as a Democrat or switch parties and run as a Republican. Incumbent Tate Reeves (R) is widely expected to either run for Governor or score an appointment to the Senate seat of Sen. Thad Cochran (R) should the latter resign soon, as expected; SoS Delbert Hosemann (R) and State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) have also been connected with LG runs, but much will depend on how the Cochran musical chairs play out.

NV-Treas: Financial planner Derek Uehara (R) is running for State Treasurer, joining ex-Las Vegas councilman Bob Beers (R) in the primary. No Democrats have as of yet declared for this seat, which is open as incumbent Dan Schwartz (R) is running for Governor.

Howard, MD-CE: County Commissioner Calvin Ball (D) is running for County Executive in my home county against incumbent Allan Kittleman (R). Ball is a top-tier recruit for Dems in this blue suburban Baltimore county, heavy with upscale liberals, that continues to trend left despite my best efforts. (sigh)

PA-Redistrict: The State Supreme Court has agreed to fast-track a Democratic challenge to the state’s congressional map, placing it on a timeline that could lead to new maps in time for the 2018 elections. A new map would likely flip at least one of three competitive GOP-held districts in the Philly suburbs, PA-6, 7, and 8, and potentially make a couple other districts, most likely the open GOP-held PA-15 and the Dem held Trump-voting PA-17, more competitive.

International:

Today, continuing our commitment to bringing you coverage of elections in places you didn’t even know existed, there is an election in Somaliland, which might be best characterized as an accident of diplomacy. Calling it a de facto nation would be selling it short: in every arena but international status, Somaliland is a more of a nation than a sizeable fraction of the world’s recognized nations. It has a population of 3.5M, occupying what is internationally recognized as (theoretically) the northwest part of Somalia along the south shore of the Gulf of Aden. However, that international recognition is a diplomatic fiction, as the dysfunctional-at-best Somali government hasn’t had the slightest bit of control (or even influence) over the area for over 25 years. Somaliland broke off when the nation’s central government disintegrated in 1991 and hasn’t looked back, but the desire to not further hurt the legitimacy of the fledgling-to-nonexistent Mogadishu government has led all other countries to hold back from recognizing Somaliland’s obvious independence. Making its lack of international recognition even stranger is that Somaliland would under normal circumstances be one of both Africa’s and the Islamic World’s biggest success stories. It is a relatively stable and democratic nation (at least by the global region’s low standards), with a functioning central government and economy, and a free politics and civil society that easily surpass a majority of Africa’s recognized nations. Today, the presidential election is open as the incumbent is peacefully standing down, and there is a lively competition between the country’s three strong parties, which are well-developed enough to even have rudimentary ideologies instead of being mere personality or clan vehicles. All of the three parties have large caucuses in parliament and are running credible candidates, who even had a televised debate last month. Furthermore, all three candidates at least appear to be relatively pro-Western and within democratic norms. The candidate of the incumbent party is Musa Behi, who serves as the party’s chair. He is facing public works minister Faysal Warabe and parliament speaker Abdiraman Irro. It’s hard to handicap this race, but Behi seems to be the candidate of the capital’s establishment and military, Irro seems to have the strongest ties to rural traditional clan leaders, and Warabe seems to be closest to a Western-style social democrat. Behi seems to be the front-runner, but it’s hard to say for sure.

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167 Comments

  • ike56 November 13, 2017 at 7:46 am

    Great roundup, Shamlet! I, too, have been reduced to DGAF status, in large part due to some of our primary voters and their, err, “judgment.”😕

    Up in Maine (Bath, so ME-1?), so being in EST, I can actually read and comment before the threads fill up and say everything I could anyhow.

    RE: Somaliland, I would have said that it’s nothing short of amazing that a former Italian colony would be doing so well, but I remembered that this region was actually under British control before being united with the Italian region and sent off into the world as an independent nation.


    38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 8:02 am

    Nice roundup, sham


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 9:16 am

      I agree. The new pervert feature fits in nicely with the drop in NY/PA corruption updates.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • shamlet November 13, 2017 at 9:53 am

        Comment of the day.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • cinyc November 14, 2017 at 1:58 am

        I’m waiting for the two to meet. There have to be some serial sexual abusers in the New York state Assembly and/or Senate delegation whose behavior has been thus far covered up by the Bear Mountain Compact. What happens in Albany can’t possibly stay in Albany in this political environment.

        • Son_of_the_South November 14, 2017 at 2:45 am

          Maybe. I’m sure that there are some offenders, though Albany proves time and again that a culture of corruption tends to stay that way until someone smashes it with hammer. Even Preet didn’t manage to completely clear out that hive of scum and villainy.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • RogueBeaver November 13, 2017 at 8:53 am

    CO-GOV/AG: Brauchler dropping down to AG. https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/930070936857952256


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Wahoowa November 13, 2017 at 9:08 am

      I love Brauchler and think he would be the best governor–and maybe the best general election candidate–out of that clown-car gov field, but this is the right move. He’ll get the nomination easily, and the GOP has historically been stronger in down-ballot races in Colorado (especially AG) so he’s got a better chance of weathering the storm next year. However, Phil Weiser has been raising a lot of money on the Dem side. He’ll be a tough candidate if he gets the nomination.


      CO-7

  • HS November 13, 2017 at 9:00 am

    Doug Ose is without a doubt the best we are going to do this year, but he actually has lost two comeback attempts, in 2008 and 2014. This gives him the reputation of a loser, unfortunately. Still, he is far better than the two other Republicans in the race, thanks to his wealth and status as a former Congressman.

  • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 9:25 am

    I think Phil Scott and Charlie Baker will be reelected fairly easily but Maryland is tough. Trump seems to have made the D.C. suburbanites angrier than just about anyone in the country.

    • andyroo312 November 13, 2017 at 10:13 am

      Really depends on the Democratic nominee. If it’s Ben Jealous, Hogan totally wins. If, however, it’s Kevin Kamenetz, prepare for a nail-biter.


      MA-7

      • shamlet November 13, 2017 at 10:18 am

        I can’t decide who I want to win the primary. Jealous would be the easiest to beat but god help us if he actually wins the election… at that point I am seriously going to consider moving to Shrewsbury. Hogan has been smart about attacking both Baker and Kamenetz about problems in their respective counties’ schools so he’s obviously laying the groundwork to localize the race against either, but no question they’d be tougher general election opponents.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 10:32 am

          We need voters in Shrewsbury.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • HS November 13, 2017 at 10:15 am

      I think Hogan will win again. He has really built his own personal brand separate from Trump and other Republicans. And, the GOP has actually done pretty well in M.D. races for Governor. Since 1994, two victories, one victory that was stolen (1994) and competitive races in 1998, 2006, and 2010.

      • fzw November 13, 2017 at 10:21 am

        I don’t know how you can be so confident in that after what just happened in NOVA to a candidate we were told would do better than Trump did. Hogan doesn’t need to just outrun Trump’s numbers. He needs to do it by almost 20 points.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • HS November 13, 2017 at 10:29 am

          I said I think he will win. I wouldn’t call that too confident.

          He is an incumbent, who already has outrun the GOP baseline substantially. As an incumbent, who by definition has his own record, and who has been hostile to Trump, I think he has insulated himself well.

        • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:23 pm

          But Gillespie made the mistake of running on Trumpy issues (MS-13 & sanctuary cities). What VA-gov showed was running on Trump’s issues without being Trump doesnt work. Hogan will hopefully not make that mistake.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 1:25 pm

            In retrospect Gillespie had a difficult task in running in a blue trending state where North Va liberal Dems turned out in record numbers to vote for a Dem to repudiate Trump. Polls showed support for Gillespie’s position on the two issues of opposition to sanctuary cities and monument removal and even Northam started fudging his stance on these issues as a result. So it was not this that defeated Gillespie; in the present political climate the odds were stacked against him and I really don’t know what he could have done different that would have changed the outcome.

            • Indy1975a November 13, 2017 at 11:48 pm

              As I’ve said many times, I don’t think Gillespie ran a bad campaign. The political environment was just terrible for him. Northam ran the bad campaign, and would have won by double digits easily if not for some mistakes (including some like the LVF ad which wasn’t entirely on him).


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

              • fzw November 14, 2017 at 12:14 am

                How much better could Northam realistically have done? The outrage over the LVF ad probably cost him negligible votes, like I always suspected. He way outraised Gillespie. He arguably ran the better campaign–one that had more relevance to Virginians than MS-13. What more could he have done to increase his statewide margins? He set modern Democratic gubernatorial records in NOVA and metro Richmond and Virginia Beach/Chesapeake. No one thought he’d do better than Hillary in NOVA and Chesterfield/Henrico, but he did anyway.

                I guess we’ll see something close to the true Democratic ceiling and Republican floor next year in Kaine vs. Stewart. If not then, in 2020 if Trump is still as (or more) unpopular as he is now.


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

                • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 1:04 am

                  I think even people thinking Northam ran a good campaign would say he mishandled the whole sanctuary cities topic. After he broke a tie in the state senate against a bill banning sanctuary cities(which was a pure messaging bill) he should have known that he would be attacked on this.That he still was waffeling on this topic was bizare.

                  In regards to Gillespie campaign I feel like some people here mistake running an safe and disziplined campaign for running an good campaign aimed at winning.
                  Maybe Gillespie was always going to lose against the fundamentals, but I very rarely had the feeling Gillespie was doing something to change the dynamic of the race.He ran trumpian ads but otherwise he ran a standard republican campaign(cutting taxes, protecting gun rights, less regulation etc) like you would run under obama.
                  Hard to see what reason he gave a dem leaning independant to vote for him.

                • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 9:32 pm

                  Possibly 12-13% margin. What the LVF ad did was to turn out conservatives and far right voters not especially thrilled with Gillespie. R turnout actually ended up being decent, and if you didn’t have the LVF ad (or any of the R ads on MS-13 etc.), my guess is that R turnout might have cratered. Northam was pretty weak on the campaign trail as well, he was just boosted by anti-Trump voters turning out in droves.
                  Outraising Gillespie isn’t an accomplishment, any D would have done that with the amount of anger toward Trump.


                  Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Republican Michigander November 13, 2017 at 10:49 am

        I hope you are right, but I wouldn’t be taking that bet. I’m leaning more and more towards expecting a wave election based on DC inaction and their inability to get their stuff together. Hogan can’t survive a wave. Ehrlich won in decent 2002. Hogan won in 2014 wave by 4%. Ehrlich lost by 7% in the 2006 disaster.

        If “the resistance” is energized and off year turnout goes up in Prince George’s, Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore City, it’s all over no matter what the R’s do.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:25 pm

          But Ehrlich lost to the Dem’s A-List candidate. O’Malley was a popular Governor. If a lesser Dem was the nominee I’m not so sure Ehrlich would have lost.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • HS November 13, 2017 at 6:16 pm

            Yeah – Martin O was an 800 lb gorilla in 2006. The Dems don’t have anyone like that this year. And Hogan is, from what I hear, much better than Ehrlich in avoiding antagonizing Democrats in M.D.

  • andrew_1918 November 13, 2017 at 10:04 am

    Wow!

    RI-Gov:
    GOP Primary: Fung- 45%, Morgan- 24%, Trillo- 10%
    GE: Fung (R)- 46%, Raimondo (D-Inc)- 41%
    Trump Job Approval- 37%
    Raimondo Job Approval- 43/49

    https://lintvwpri.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/memo-for-ri-governor-survey.pdf

    • ike56 November 13, 2017 at 10:07 am

      Watch, we’ll lose Alabama but then win RI. Crazy results like this happen almost every cycle.


      38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

      • SlippingJimmy November 13, 2017 at 11:29 am

        It is fascinating how the GOP can control all but two NE governor’s mansions (and we have a good chance to gain those two without losing any of our own) while losing nearly every federal-level race in the NE.


        Republican, TX-22.

      • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:27 pm

        RI is very elastic it is just every Democrat. Trump kind of works with the blue collar ethnic white voters that make up RI. RI is kind of like the Staten Island of Massachusetts.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • shamlet November 13, 2017 at 10:16 am

    Pharma exec and Bush 43 admin alum Alex Azar is new HHS sec nominee.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • w920us November 13, 2017 at 8:29 pm

      Lebanese-Americans have quite a number of prominent individuals for such a small group.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Lucas Black November 13, 2017 at 9:41 pm

        Yeah, they got Jamie Farr and all!

  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 10:39 am

    http://www.politicspa.com/fetterman-to-announce-lg-candidacy-tuesday/85354/

    Pa-Lt Gov: Fetterman will run.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 10:45 am

      Dems’ great WWC hope /s

  • Left Coast Libertarian November 13, 2017 at 11:01 am

    The LA Times/USC poll was 68%D/26%R. That’d be even more Democratic than the 2016 primary, which was more Democratic than any previous primary. That seems unlikely. The last gubernatorial primary was 55%-40%.

    The Senate poll is problematic for another reason. They only included two candidates, Feinstein and De Leon, and didn’t give any party ID when doing so. So there’s no Republican alternative for anyone to choose. While most people know Feinstein is a Democrat, few people have heard of De León. Thus, some people likely assumed De León was a Republican and chose him as a result. In fact, De Leon gets killed among Democrats, 56%-24%, but is close to Feinstein among Republicans, 21%-17%.

    If Republicans knew who De León was less would choose him. So De León’s lack of name ID and lack of party ID is a huge benefit in the poll. If the poll were conducted with any Republican name and party ID, De León’s support would be much lower.

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 11:16 am

    One very close result from #NJGov? #NJ05. Suburban seat that arcs across top of the state. Getting Murphy +231 votes. Was Trump +1.3%, but is rep’d by Dem Josh Gottheimer. https://t.co/1d2By9rubj


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • krazen1211 November 13, 2017 at 12:09 pm

      Nj-07 at least went solidly for Kim G.

      I suspect things will get better once Murphy gets covered in NJ fiscal stink for a year. Still it might be hard to preserve 3 districts in North NJ in 2021.

      Might need to cut to 2 GOP districts.

  • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 11:17 am

    Roy Moore: Gloria Alred is going to hold a presser with another Moore accuser in NYC today…

    Does this help Moore? I hope not.

    I strongly hope we start up a write in campaign as Izengabe has suggested many times.

    • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 11:32 am

      Mitch McConnell says that he believes the accusers. I think i’m the only dude on this page who likes Mitch, but i’m glad I do.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 11:39 am

        I like Mitch, but I am from a state where his political behavior is expected. Allred is like every other trial attorney and full of it to a point, but she only gets on board these things once there is some vetting.

        Is it too soon to start threatening to expel Alabama from the Union if it elects a child molestor?


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • AJNolte November 13, 2017 at 11:44 am

        You aren’t the only one; I like McConnell. Up until this year, I thought he was actually very effective at getting things done, and he was both right on campaign finance reform’s stifling effect on the First Amendment and willing to stick to his guns on it when it wasn’t popular.

        There’s always a point at which enough smoke really does indicate a fire and you have to stop giving people the benefit of the doubt. I think, like McConnell, that point for me was over the weekend as the drip drip of this continued.

        Did the Libertarians or any other right-leaning party run a candidate for the special?


        33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

        • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 12:22 pm

          There is a Libertarian write in candidate Ron Bishop as well as a write in McMullin supporter, Mac Watson; but no one is going to win as a write in candidate in Alabama. This senate seat is lost because we have total jerk from many angles as the GOP candidate. That is why I have been saying the final GOP tax bill needs to be acted on before the Dec 12 special senate election, while there are still 52 GOP Senators.

          • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:34 pm

            A coordinated write-in campaign for a well known Alabama Republican endorsed by all major players in AL GOP politics is the only hope of keeping the seat GOP. Knocking Moore below 20% into Dan Maes territory and winning as a write-in with over 40% of the vote is the only way.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 12:37 pm

              That needs to start happening today. Trump needs to basically park himself in Alabama and start destroying Moore and advocating for the write-in.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

              • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 12:45 pm

                Is Trump back yet? If so, he might try to convince Sessions to run for his old seat. He’s not happy with his performance as AG.

              • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:55 pm

                Luckily we still have a full month before election day. That is plenty of time to get this effort organized and to zap Moore to single digits support.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 1:01 pm

                  I agree Izengabe. However, for that to work, the president needs to break his silence. He can make this happen. I don’t think anyone else can. Shelby is too old to get anything done. Alabama has an governor who was never elected to her position. This is in the president’s hands as Ryan mentioned above.

                  BTW, is Izengabe your real name?

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 1:24 pm

                    Trump showing up and using his typical language against Moore would do the trick within a couple days.


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                    • TexasR November 13, 2017 at 1:26 pm

                      The only question is if he would actually be willing to spend a few days in Alabama railing against “Dirty Roy.” His last statement on this doesn’t give me much confidence.


                      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                      Be careful what you wish for

                    • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 1:39 pm

                      What was Trump’s last statement?

                    • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 1:40 pm

                      It would have to be a full court press by everyone. Trump, conservative GOP media and all the local AL GOP would have to rally around whoever the write-in candidate is. My hunch is it would have to be Strange since he’s already there.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 1:42 pm

                      Dirty Roy is not far enough. Pedophile Roy is where you start.


                      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                  • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 2:02 pm

                    While Trump going to Alabama and try to push out Moore might be the best for the party it is the best idea for Trump personally?
                    If he tries to push out Moore because of credible allegations one of the first questions will be why should we believe the accusations against Moore but not against Trump. Trump has a lot of baggage in that regard with 6? accusers and the Access Hollywood tape.

                    • Left Coast Libertarian November 13, 2017 at 2:12 pm

                      What happens with elections if Roy Moore wins but resigns some time afterward?

                    • Chris Rawlings November 13, 2017 at 2:23 pm

                      If Roy Moore is elected and soon after resigns we know exactly what will happen. Pigs will fly and the cows will come home.


                    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 3:48 pm

                      Trump is not a child molester.


                      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                    • Tekzilla November 13, 2017 at 4:12 pm

                      Trump is not a child molester true, but he was caught creeping around dressing rooms where Teenage women were naked.


                      36/M/NY-01 (D)

                    • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 4:39 pm

                      @Tekzilla And when Ivanka was 16 he “joked” that she was so attractive he would date her if she wasn’t his daughter.

                • andyroo312 November 13, 2017 at 3:09 pm

                  More likely, this thing winds up kinda looking like the 1990 Texas gubernatorial race, where Ann Richards rode Clayton Williams’ stupidity to victory in the red south.


                  MA-7

            • Chris Rawlings November 13, 2017 at 2:30 pm

              Dan Maes was a total institutional outsider, basically parachuting in just as Scott McInnis imploded after spending years clearing the field.

              Roy Moore is as much a face of the Alabama GOP as Sessions or Shelby. Throwing him under the bus would go against literally every standard operating procedure of the good ol’ boy ‘Bama GOP.


      • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 1:47 pm

        I like Mitch McConnell too. He is a real true believer conservative who purposely took on the fixer role. Calling on Roy Moore to drop out is the right thing morally and also politically as McConnell realizes Moore can’t win and getting rid of him is the only way to save the seat.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • andyroo312 November 13, 2017 at 2:13 pm

          I’m also fond of McConnell and actually feel quite bad that it’s the Trumpster he’s stuck serving under.


          MA-7

  • AJNolte November 13, 2017 at 11:17 am

    Non-recognition of Somaliland is one of those head-scratching international decisions really only attributable to bureaucratic inertia.


    33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 11:42 am

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/business/media/keurig-hannity.html?referer=https://www.google.com/

    Our politics have degerated to the point where we smash products of brands who refuse to advertise on shows hosted by child molestor defenders. I am going to go to the Bacilica and pray for a giant meteor to end it all.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 12:36 pm

      This Tweet said it all:
      “I just want to make sure i don’t miss the messaging. we’re smashing a thing we bought from a corporation that stopped advertising during a show that defended a politician accused of child molestation, and we want the guy that wrote Idiocracy to know we’re fans, is that accurate?”
      https://twitter.com/danharmon/status/929766414063243264


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 12:46 pm

        It might not take us 500 years to get to Idiocracy at this rate.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Chris Rawlings November 13, 2017 at 2:21 pm

      It’s important, though, to be super clear that the alt right absolutely never engages in social justice warfare and identity politicking, which is not only strictly limited to left wing gender studies professors, but is also the reason Trump was elected. It’s also important to add that when we talk about draining the swamp, it doesn’t technically matter if we actually drain the swamp, or even add to it by supporting unambiguously bigoted candidates who are likely guilty of and publicly unrepentant of old child molestation charges.

      At this rate the Democratic margin on the generic ballot will be 20.


  • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Monday NY Tidbits:

    Term Limited Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano (a Repub turned Dem) has indicated interest in the soon to be vacated State Senate seat of Dem George Latimer, who was elected Westchester CE. He joins Assemblywoman Shelley Mayer and People for Bernie co-founder Kat Brezler, who have also expressed interest in the seat. Half of Yonkers is in the State Senate District. The district is considered competitive.

    Bronx Dem Assemblyman Luis Sepulveda has expressed interest in the soon to be vacated Bronx State Senate seat of Ruben Diaz Sr., who was elected to the NYC Council. The district is heavily Dem.

    Both Spano and Sepulveda are expected to join the Mainstream Dems in the State Senate if elected, not the IDC breakaway Dem faction.

    Dem Buffalo City Councilman Chris Scanlon and Dem Erie County Legislator Pat Burke have both expressed interest in the heavily Dem South Buffalo Assembly seat of Dem Mickey Kearns. Although a registered Dem, Kearns was elected Erie County Clerk as a Repub-Conservative.

    In one little bright spot for Repubs, George Borrello was elected Chautauqua County (Jamestown and surrounding area) CE. The position was open and had been held by a Repub. Not only did he win, but he smashed his Dem opponent 63-37.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 2:14 pm

    Ralph Northam won 24/40 SDs. Of the five Republican held Northam districts, Northam won two by double digits, including a 58-41 spread in Richmond’s SD-10. Democrats only need one seat to take a majority in 2019.

    • krazen1211 November 13, 2017 at 2:57 pm

      We won that district by about 3% when it opened up in 2015. The Dems tried to gerrymandering it from under the GOP in 2011.

      • roguemapper November 13, 2017 at 3:54 pm

        By definition the GOP previously won all of the seats that it lost last week, and generally by far more than 3%, so it’s unclear to me what point you’re making here. I’m just curious.


        Dem NC-11

        • krazen1211 November 13, 2017 at 4:20 pm

          Just a general observation about the district. No particular point.

          We used to benefit from low Richmond turnout.

      • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 4:40 pm

        They didn’t try very hard… why would you put Powhatan Co. in a Dem gerrymander?

        • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 4:44 pm

          Has anyone drawn Virgina neutral and/or dem gerrymander maps already?
          Very likely Northam will force neutral state legislative maps and there is an good chance that dems have an trifecta after 2019. Winning 1 state senate seat looks very likely and winning 2 seat in the state house looks also possible but not assured.

          • fzw November 13, 2017 at 4:50 pm

            Why would Northam force neutral maps in a Democratic trifecta?


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

            • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 4:57 pm

              I should have made my point clearer, I can understand the confusion. Northam regardless of what happens in 2019 can veto the state maps and force neutral maps this way. I doubt dems will make a deal similar to 2010 where republicans drew the map for the house and dems drew it for the senate.

              A dem gerrymander is only possible if dems win both houses in 2019, which is possible but not certain.

          • Vosmyorka November 13, 2017 at 7:41 pm

            Dem gerrymanders of Virginia exist on DKE. It is quite easy to draw a 7Safe D-1 Likely D-3 Safe R map; 4 Safe D NoVa seats, 2 Safe D black seats in southeast Virginia, with enough black voters moved into Taylor’s seat to make it totally Safe D and enough moved into Garrett’s seat to make it Likely D (Clinton by upper-single-digits, though trending the wrong way for Dems in the long term). The three Safe R seats that survive are a successor to Griffith’s seat, a successor to Goodlatte’s seat, and a general Central Virginia Republican vote-sink that Wittman and Brat could end up fighting over.

            This diary is kind of unpleasantly written, but you can scroll down to his proposed congressional and state legislative maps for VA, because they’re a pretty reasonable example of what Democrats will try: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/10/1711768/-Let-s-reflect-on-the-coming-nightmare-for-Virginia-Republicans


            Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

            • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 7:48 pm

              Thx for the answer and the link.

        • krazen1211 November 13, 2017 at 5:27 pm

          Well, Powhatan Co was already in the benchmark district.

          Bob McDonnell vetoed the original set of maps, which had passed the VA State Senate on a party line 22-18 vote. Since the Democrats didn’t want to chance an election under the existing set of maps 2 years after McDonnell cleaned their clocks by 18 points…they cut a deal. I believe the original set of maps tried to slice up Virginia Beach.

          Remember in 2010 Gerry Connolly barely held on in the 11th district. Things were different then.

          Districts like SD-10 are long gone, but the GOP can probably claw back a couple House of Delegates seats more easily.

  • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    I just watched the press conference of Beverly Nelson who is accusing Moore of sexual assault 40 years ago. I feel like this might be the thing that finishes Moore’s chances of winning the senate race
    She feels credible and Roy Moore signing her high school yearbook (https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/930164286143565830) is adding a lot of credibility to her accusation. While that doesn’t prove her assault allegations it looks really shady and is very hard to find a good explanation for that.

    • andyroo312 November 13, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      Agreed. Moore, however, clearly isn’t going anywhere. His latest e-mail to supporters (which I inexplicably received as well) is titled “McConnell’s dirty plot to destroy me.”


      MA-7

      • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 3:54 pm

        It is more difficult for him to deny this allegation because of the yearbook signature. Apparently he knew her as a waitress and one night offered her a ride home. He then suddenly parked the car, groped her and attempted to force her to have oral sex with him but she resisted and he kicked her out of the car. Although she was not underage by Alabama law, clearly trying to force someone to perform a sex act they don’t want to do is a crime. Of course he may try to claim the incident never happened but now there are multiple accusers. Why would this woman make up the story? Yet this holy hypocrite may still try to stay in the race claiming it is a plot against him because of his social conservatism. So now Mitch McConnell and the WaPo jointly plot to destroy him politically? He becomes less and less believable and who knows if this is the end of the accusations.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 6:36 pm

          So this means Moore violated Alabama’s sodomy laws which banned oral sex?


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • OGGoldy November 13, 2017 at 6:56 pm

            I don’t think attempting to break a law, but failing, is actually a crime. Like, trying to jaywalk, but tripping over your shoe laces at the curb.

            Of course, in this case the shoe laces were a teenager girl, and the girl, and the curb was attempted rape.

            • Wahoowa November 13, 2017 at 7:50 pm

              This is emphatically not the case. An attempt is as good as a crime in nearly every jurisdiction (although the test of what counts as an “attempt” varies widely). Interesting fact, though: federal criminal law does not criminalize attempts as a general matter. Only for a select few statues is an attempt a crime.


              CO-7

            • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 7:55 pm

              Do you really think he did not engage in oral sex somewhere before 2003? I just like the idea of calling him a Sodomite and a hypocrite.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

              • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 8:23 pm

                #RoyMooreSodomite

                I like it.

    • Republican Michigander November 13, 2017 at 6:34 pm

      That signature there just would have cost my vote. I now have too many doubts about him. At this point, if I was a Bama resident, I’d be voting a blank ballot or writing in. As for Jones, he’s pro-abort, so not a chance.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 3:22 pm

    🚨 from NRSC Chair Cory Gardner:

    Roy Moore is “unfit to serve in the United States Senate and he should not run for office. If he refuses to withdraw and wins, the Senate should vote to expel him, because he does not meet the ethical and moral requirements of the … Senate.”


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • shamlet November 13, 2017 at 3:22 pm

      Link: https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/930167409805332481


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Jon November 13, 2017 at 6:59 pm

      This would be both constitutional and non juridically reviewable; but the last time the Senate has expelled a Senator was in 1862 (suspected “traitors”); because it takes 2/3rds majority.
      Now simply not admitting a newly elected senator can be done by majority vote; and was done only a few years ago (but only for a few months; the Senate did eventually admit him)


      45, M, MO-02

  • Mayor Perk November 13, 2017 at 3:45 pm

    Jury can’t reach a verdict in Menendez trial.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/nyregion/senator-menendez-trial-jury.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 3:47 pm

    The Republicans have two options regarding Moore: (1) run a write-in, or (2) endorse the Democrat. This is a David Duke style situation; merely denouncing does not go far enough.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • fzw November 13, 2017 at 3:49 pm

      Is it really possible for Moore to drop so low for a write-in to beat Jones? I don’t know.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • andyroo312 November 13, 2017 at 3:57 pm

        I’m skeptical Moore can drop much lower than Duke did in the race vs. Edwards – 38 percent. If Jones’ floor is 40 percent (which is probably the case), there’s not really a path to victory for a write-in.


        MA-7

    • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 3:50 pm

      Assuming Hugh Hewitt’s idea is out, we really need to run a write-in. However, the President needs to be the one leading it.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 3:55 pm

        We are not a banana republic. Cancelling the election is a non-starter and probably would be struck down by the courts. That is about as realistic of an option is expelling Alabama from the Union and deeming it an unincorporated territory.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Tekzilla November 13, 2017 at 4:10 pm

        I think it also needs to be paired with Moore dropping out. Only then can the seat be “saved” for sure now IMO.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 5:18 pm

      Yes Moore can drop a lot lower. If the choice is a write-in or a Democrat Moore could drop to single digits. Moore only won 38% in the 1st round which is 164K votes. Those are his core supporters. Nearly 1.2 million people voted in 2014 mid-terms. Assuming turnout for the special is about 1 million Moore’s hardcore supporters are probably less than 10% of total voters.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • reedc November 13, 2017 at 9:28 pm

      Thus Jeff Flake already said he would vote for the dem over Roy Moore. About as close to an endorsement without saying it as you can get.

  • Lucas Black November 13, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    The status of Somaliland has always annoyed me. I has now been defacto independent longer than it was part of Somalia. I have heard some try to justify it on the basis that if they start breaking up African nations, they will release all sorts of pent-up tribal conflicts. But it’s a poor argument – Somaliland had a clear history as a separate entity, the carcass it is roped to is a total mess and now that they split Sudan, there is precedent. If there are issues over the border with Puntland, those can be negotiated and dealt with. I think the fact that there is no real lobby for Somaliland is the main reason they have not gotten the recognition they deserve.

    • AJNolte November 13, 2017 at 4:25 pm

      Exactly right. It’s one of those things that just flat out makes sense, but won’t happen because the only people it actually benefits are those living on the ground.


      33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    A circuit court 3 judge panel temporarily blocked an injunction against the latest Trump Admin travel ban by a lower court district judge in Hawaii. The travel ban can go into effect for the targeted countries but only for people who have no direct connection to the US like a firm job offer, relatives in the US, etc.

    https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/11/13/court-lets-trump-travel-ban-go-partially-into-effect/23275823/

  • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    This has not exactly been the greatest week for the GOP. Be sure to thank Steve Bannon for helping hoist Moore upon the GOP. One good thing that may come out of all of this is that his claim to be a great political strategist has taken a beating. He is bad news for the Repubs.

    • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 4:31 pm

      I would say that Moore had won in 99,9% of the cases against Strange regardless of what Bannon did or didn’t do. Bannon was good at getting credit for something he had very little to do with.

      • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 4:50 pm

        What you say is true about Moore winning against Strange anyway, but my main point is that Bannon is supposedly this great political strategist but he wound up backing a candidate who is radioactive. Poor judgment on his part.

    • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 5:21 pm

      I don’t like Steve Bannon but come on. Bannon was hopping on the Roy Moore bandwagon not leading it. Bannon didnt hoist Moore upon anybody. He rode his coattails.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 8:44 pm

        Well you missed my point so I will try one more time. Moore did not need Bannon to win. But by endorsing a guy like Moore there is doubt cast on Bannon’s political acumen. He told us what a great candidate Moore is, when all the evidence was that this guy is a loose cannon even before the WaPo story. So what does this say about Bannon’s judgment in other key races? Is he really the great political strategist he claims to be?

  • Conservative First November 13, 2017 at 4:55 pm

    MI-Senate (R):
    24 John James
    19 Fred Upton
    7 Robert Young
    http://mirsnews.podbean.com/

    • edtorres04 November 13, 2017 at 5:20 pm

      Robert O’Neill (the Bin Ladin killer) endorsed John James.

    • Republican Michigander November 13, 2017 at 6:38 pm

      Interesting since that poll includes Upton, who probably has the highest name ID. Maybe Upton should not have cosponsored HR 3999.

      I’m not impressed with Young’s campaign right now, which is sad to see since I have all the respect in the world for that man. GREAT Supreme Court Justice, and I don’t use the term lightly. I’m not going to write him off yet, but that campaign needs to get itself in gear.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • RogueBeaver November 13, 2017 at 5:09 pm

    TX-29: Green retiring. https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/930194810761285632


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • TexasR November 13, 2017 at 5:21 pm

      I think this brings us up to the biggest non-redistricting related shakeup in the Texas delegation since 1996.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

  • rdw72777 November 13, 2017 at 6:35 pm

    Could Jeff Session run, win, refuse to serve after election and/or resign, and trigger a new election? That way he could stat AG and destroy Moore? Can he serve as Senator and AG simultaneously?

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 6:42 pm

      Sessions overtly running would violate the Hatch Act. Seeing Sessions did not resign when Trump trashed him, i doubt he would here.

      That is about as realistic as an angry mob ripping him limb from limb.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Wahoowa November 13, 2017 at 7:57 pm

        IIRC, the only portions of the Hatch Act that apply to cabinet secretaries are those related to raising funds and campaigning on govt time. If that’s the case, he could be a candidate for partisan election. He just couldn’t accept any donations to his campaign, or do any campaign activities while on duty.


        CO-7

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 6:43 pm

    Just to be clear. If the choice is between Roy Moore and a Democrat, I would run to the polling place to vote for the Democrat

    Flake.

    https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/930218697213571073


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 6:53 pm

    NRSC F’d up oppo research.

    https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/930218618213711872


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Tekzilla November 13, 2017 at 7:35 pm

      Insane.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 7:38 pm

        Further evidence of why the Republican staffer consultant industrial complex all need to be replaced.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 8:29 pm

          Yeah 2 things:

          How is it a public figure like Moore who has run several times for statewide office could so all this stuff the WaPo uncovered but no one on Strange’s staff knew anything about it. What a failure of opposition research.

          I still wonder if the WaPo sat on this story until after Moore got the nomination and it was too late to replace him. No way to know that for sure but considering the timing I wouldn’t put it past the WaPo.

          • district1 November 13, 2017 at 9:05 pm

            This story is nothing without the damning testimony of the women involved.

            After 40 years of staying silent, do really think they would have told their story to a Washington DC opposition research firm, or to a political opponent knowing that it will be used solely for the purpose of taking a candidate down?

            There are some stories only the media can break because they can (rightly or not) make the case to whistleblowers that it’s in the public interest.


            ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

            • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 9:35 pm

              As if the media are objective in determining what is in the public interest and have no political agenda. The women who told their stories in the WaPo must have realized it would then be used in the campaign, so I don’t think they would have been that picky if it was an opposition research firm that got the story. They wanted the public to see him for what he really is, not the pious defender of public morals he claimed to be.

              • district1 November 13, 2017 at 9:41 pm

                I seriously doubt the average non-political junkie who has sat on a story like this for decades would respond more positively to someone paid by a political campaign to dig up dirt than to a reporter for the Washington Post.


                ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

              • fzw November 13, 2017 at 9:48 pm

                It’s VERY amusing you should mention that, because I distinctly remember reading a story about how Chuck Schumer was oddly bullish on Jones’s chances in Alabama a few months ago, and people were quite puzzled as to why. Maybe now we know why!


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

                • district1 November 13, 2017 at 9:52 pm

                  Dude, it’s his job to say Jones has a chance to win.


                  ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

                  • fzw November 13, 2017 at 9:56 pm

                    I was half-kidding, but I would be totally unsurprised if the DSCC was the ones who leaked this to WaPo. They do have superior research teams, after all.


                    Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                    R-leaning Indy.

                    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 10:11 pm

                      Well they probably figured Moore would do something stupid. Probably not something this stupid.


                      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 9:14 pm

            Of course they did because they admit it. By their own admission they started working on the story during the primary and didnt publish it until after the deadline to replace Moore.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • reedc November 13, 2017 at 9:32 pm

              Did they just sit on it? Did they admit to that? Because I can tell from reading the original piece they spent an unusually extraordinary amount of time investigating the befire publishing. I actually think they were being responsible. They interviewed the first woman to contact the SIX different times to make sure her story was consistent. Maybe they could’ve published sooner but if you ever watched Spotlight you definitely start to respect how journalists take their painstaking time before publishing explosive stories that have ability to ruin people’s careers. I see this as very similar to Spotlight in terms of the vetting involved

    • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 8:38 pm

      Sad but true.

      @brianefallon
      1h1 hour ago
      The Gadsden mall in Alabama has a Sears, Chick-Fil-A, and it may turn out, higher standards than the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body

      • Ryan_in_SEPA November 13, 2017 at 9:06 pm

        He engaged in debachedy at a mall with a Chick-Fil-A! That should be enough to send him to Ole Sparky!


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • roguemapper November 13, 2017 at 10:24 pm

      Fwiw, this is why I thought it was bizarre when some were saying that they believed the allegations but Moore would still win by 20 or had 20-1 odds of winning anyhow: Because that implied his molestation of the 14 year old was an isolated incident. It never works that way with pedophiles. The first report is always just the tip of iceberg. If the first report was false, then that’d be a whole nother matter, but if it was credible then it was virtually a given that there’d be more revelations in short order. There was also a good bit of the ‘how could he be in office all of those years without this coming out?’ Um, hello? Haven’t we seen those same questions over and over with pedophile priests, coaches, politicians, celebrities, etc?


      Dem NC-11

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 6:56 pm

    In Roy Moore’s press statement just now, he said of Beverly Young Nelson:
    “This is absolutely false. I never did what she said I did. I don’t even know the woman. I don’t know anything about her. I don’t even know where the restaurant is or was.”


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • OGGoldy November 13, 2017 at 6:57 pm

      The woman with his signature in her high school year book? Totally believable…

      • TexasR November 13, 2017 at 6:58 pm

        He literally believes his supporters are morons. Wow.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

        • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 7:03 pm

          I remember hearing of another such candidate.


          29, M, R, NY-10

      • Jon November 13, 2017 at 7:05 pm

        If you give me a random name of someone who I signed their yearbook with; I probably won’t remember the name. I’d need a photo to remember; which in this context would require a yearbook to be handed to me.


        45, M, MO-02

        • Boehnerwasright November 13, 2017 at 7:12 pm

          Then why didn’t moore just say that? Him saying he doesn’t know the woman is really hard to believe when he signed her year book.
          Saying he can’t remember would be more plausible.

  • MosheM November 13, 2017 at 7:10 pm

    John Curtis sworn in.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    There are at least 9 Repubs who will not support the GOP tax bill: LoBiondo (NJ), Lance (NJ), Smith (NJ), Stefanik (NY).King (NY), Zeldin (NY), Donovan (NY), Issa (Cal), McClintock (Cal). There are other members of the House who are undecided. The GOP can’t lose more than 22 Repub votes to pass the tax bill if no Dems vote for it.

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ready-not-house-republicans-set-vote-tax-overhaul

    • rdw72777 November 13, 2017 at 10:21 pm

      I’m still confused by Stefanik. She’s not in a high property tax area nor a heroically high SALT area. The fact that she’s publicly against it tells me that there’s probably going to be less than 25 objectors total and she’s being given the ability to publicly reject it.

      I think we’re going to see surprisingly few GOP defections on this…

      • Indy1975a November 13, 2017 at 10:31 pm

        All of NYS is a high state tax area.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • segmentation_fault November 13, 2017 at 11:01 pm

          Relatively. Someone living in NY-21 would benefit less from SALT than someone living in a metro area in a “low tax state” in the south. But they would benefit more than someone living in a rural area of a “low tax state.”

          https://taxfoundation.org/eliminating-salt-deduction-big-six-tax-plan/

        • rdw72777 November 13, 2017 at 11:13 pm

          No it isn’t. People in this area aren’t taking advantage of SALT specifically because there is no benefit. It has median HHI under $50k, has higher than state average seniors getting property tax breaks, and so on.

          The people taking SALT are NYC transplants claiming the Adirondacks as their home base and people who work for the state (teachers, education workers prison workers). God knows why Stefanik would be trying to help either constituency so vocally. Your average private sector worker, retiree and such in NY-21 isn’t using SALT because their taxes just aren’t high…and they’d likely benefit from the increase in the standard deduction.

          • Republican Michigander November 13, 2017 at 11:19 pm

            My wild guess is vote trading. Other NY reps need Stefanik for this vote. Stefanik needs them for other votes.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

            • rdw72777 November 14, 2017 at 12:34 am

              That would make sense but Stefanik has been a pretty solid R vote on most things hasn’t she? I haven’t seen her really have the need to horse-trade yet…though I admit I haven’t been that focused on her.

            • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 9:19 am

              Regardless of the merits and fairness of taxing on net income and not gross income a politician would have to be insane to vote to allow their home state to be raided in order to send money out of state. NY sends WAY more to Washington then it gets back and the GOP tax hike for NY will only make that worse. Any Congressman from NY, NJ or CA that votes for this will get tarred and feathered for allowing their state to be raided. Stefanik is not stupid and doesnt want the hassle of being labeled an “anti-New York” Republican.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • pstchrisp November 14, 2017 at 7:53 am

        LoBo is interesting since he’s leaving anyway. Senate ’18? Just kidding.

    • Izengabe November 13, 2017 at 10:38 pm

      Voting to screw over your home state is generally political suicide. Stefanik is smart enough not to fall into that trap and use any leverage she can to make this bill better.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian November 13, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    I checked the Va Dept of Elections web site and there is a change in only one of the 3 close Va HoD races so far where the GOP leads. In HoD district 40 the GOP candidate lead went down from 115 votes to 106 after the counting of provisional ballots. The Dem in the race will now have to decide if a recount is desired after election board formal certification. There were no revisions in HoD district 28 (GOP+84) and HD district 94 (GOP+13). That is probably because they haven’t counted all the provisional ballots yet I would assume. I think there is also an issue about whether to accept 55 absentee ballots in district 28.

  • StatenIslandTest November 14, 2017 at 12:46 am

    AL-Sen: Moore banned from shopping
    mall?

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/locals-were-troubled-by-roy-moores-interactions-with-teen-girls-at-the-gadsden-mall


    31, Jersey City

    • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 1:06 am

      This article by a local paper is better and has people on the record.

      http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/gadsden_residents_say_moores_b.html#incart_m-rpt-2

      • TexasR November 14, 2017 at 1:38 am

        It is also noteable in that up until now, all these anecdotes were from the 1970s. This article contains an account of Moore exhibiting this behavior in the 1990s, which begs the question: how long did this go on?


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

        • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 7:58 am

          Is it still going on? Rarely do these people ever quit. Jerry Sandusky was raping little boys until Corbett killed JoePA.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

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