The year of epic turnover in Texas’s normally-staid Congressional delegation continues with a sixth open seat in the Lone Star State. Rep. Gene Green (D) will not seek a fourteenth term. Despite being the last moderate white Dem in the Texas delegation, Green’s TX-29 is an overwhelmingly Hispanic seat covering the poor barrios of north-central and southeast Houston proper, as well as some inner southeastern slumburbs like the inner part of Pasadena. The seat is overwhelmingly Safe Dem at D+19 (and trending even further left). Thus, it is all but a foregone conclusion that Green will be succeeded by a (likely both more liberal and Hispanic) Democrat.
Now to the Great Mentioner: If you’re a betting person, take the over on this seat having a Rep. Garcia in 2019, because both of the most obvious contenders share that name. The most likely candidate is ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia (D), who took nearly 40% against Green two years ago despite starting his campaign very late and being underfunded as a result. Adrian Garcia would likely be the clear front-runner for this seat this time should he mount another run, though he has been on mediocre terms with the local establishment and might attract a strong primary rival. His most serious competition would likely be State Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D), who represents essentially the entire district – and came in third in the primary for this seat way back when it was newly created in 1992. State Rep. Carol Alvarado (D), who lost a State Senate race to Sylvia Garcia in 2013, is also a name to watch. Three other State Reps, Ana Hernandez-Luna (D), Armando Walle (D), and Mary Ann Perez (D), live in the seat. Houston councilors Karla Cisneros (D) and Robert Gallegos (D) are also names to watch. In the “blast from the past” file, ex-State Rep. and 2008 US Senate nominee Rick Noriega (D) could also be a potential contender as he is only 59.