Albuquerque Mayoral Runoff Preview & Liveblog

10:01 ET- Apparently via twitter ground reports are saying that Ikley-Freeman has won.

9:59 ET- With 3 precincts left, Ikley-Freeman (D) is up by 7 votes (!!!)

9:55 ET- Ikley-Freeman (D) up 75 votes with 80% in.

9:51 ET- 75% in and the Dem is up 22 votes.

9:47 ET- 65% in, O’Hara’s lead has expanded to 14 votes.

9:35 ET- And Albuquerque is even more of a snoozer than we expected. Keller is up 63-37 in the early vote and I don’t even feel the need to continue to liveblog. In Oklahoma, the GOP has held SD-45 and LD-76, while Brian O’Hara (R) is up by 13 votes in SD-37 with half reporting.

9:30 ET- Legislative results: Ashley Trantham (R) has won SC-LD-28 outright. Nancy Mace (R) appears to have missed 50% by 35 votes and will head to a runoff with Mark Smith (R) in SC-LD-99. All 3 Oklahoma races are close and not fully reported.

Albuquerque Results

Today there is a mayoral election in Albuquerque as well as a few legislative specials. Polls close at 9 ET and we will have a liveblog for Albuqerque in this thread.

Albuquerque Mayor: Albuquerque, America’s 32nd-largest city, has a population of 550K which is roughly 50% Hispanic and 45% White. Albuquerque covers the bulk of its metro area, including poor, largely Hispanic urban areas in the central and southeastern parts of the city, middle-class Hispanic areas in the southwest, and middle-class white areas in the northwest and northeast. Some wealthier suburbs sit outside the city limits; as a result, Albuquerque proper is medium-blue with a PVI of D+8 as of 2008. This year, the mayoral seat is open as two-term incumbent Richard Berry (R) is stepping down. While Berry had generally been popular as mayor for most of his term, there is some consensus that the city has taken a turn for the worse in recent years, particularly with a spiking crime rate. State Auditor Tim Keller (D) came in first in the October primary with 39%. Previously a legislator from the central part of the city, Keller has high name recognition of the candidates and strong Dem establishment support. Keller, a mainstream liberal, has a strong support base among the high-turnout white progressive community that allowed him to slightly outperform expectations in the primary. Another Democrat, who was more moderate but endorsed Keller for the runoff, took 16% in the primary, meaning that Keller essentially just has to coalesce Democrats to win. Keller’s rival is city councilman Dan Lewis (R) came in second in the primary with 23%. Lewis is a mainstream establishment conservative; he has significant support among establishment Republicans and a base in his middle-class council district on the northwest side. However, Lewis is fighting against relatively tough terrain, Keller’s higher name recognition, and Berry’s declining popularity. Lewis has also been hurt by an internecine rivalry with Gov. Susana Martinez’s (R) network, who is opposed to Lewis for personal reasons. Keller has led in polls by a margin of around 10 points (a margin that has even been growing in recent weeks) and thus looks like close to a prohibitive favorite.

Special Elections:  There are also five special elections today. Three are special general elections in Oklahoma. All are for deep-red seats and all three Republicans should be favored, but given Democrats’ absurdly strong overperformances in multiple Oklahoma specials this year, upsets are possible in all three races. OK-SD-37 is an R+21 seat covering the suburban southwestern part of Tulsa west of the Arkansas River and the suburbs of Jenks and Sand Springs. Ex-Jenks councilman and congressional staffer Brian O’Hara (R) should be favored over activist Allison Ikley-Freeman (D). OK-SD-45 is another R+21 seat covering some poor neighborhoods south of downtown OKC and wrapping southwest around the Airport to deep-red southwestern exurbs near Mustang. Realtor Paul Rosino (R) should be favored over police dispatcher Steven Vincent (D). Finally, OK-LD-76 is an R+18 seat covering most of the western half of Broken Arrow in the Tulsa suburbs. Retired cop Ross Ford (R) should be favored over teacher Chris Vanlandingham (D). The other two are special primaries in South Carolina. SC-LD-28 is an R+16 seat covering Greenville’s outer southern suburbs, at the southern tip of Greenville County. Four Republicans are facing off: realtor Ashley Thrantham (R), hospital administrator Krystal Blume (R), farmer Bill Welch (R), and firefighter Jonathan Smith (R). Trantham looks like the very slight front-runner to me, but any of the four could move on to a runoff or even win outright. No Democrats are running. The other seat is SC-LD-99, an R+12 seat connecting upscale Charleston suburbs along the northeast part of I-526 from Hanahan to northern Mt. Pleasant. The clear front-runner is businesswoman and 2014 US Senate candidate Nancy Mace (R). Mace, the first woman to graduate from The Citadel military college, fell flat in her 2014 run against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R); however, she seems to be having better luck in this race as she has lapped the field in fundraising. She will likely finish a comfortable first, but will probably be held to a runoff. Mace’s three rivals are all running serious campaigns and could join her in a runoff. They are Mt. Pleasant councilman Mark Smith (R), congressional staffer Shawn Pinkston (R), and businessman Jarrod Brooks (R). Any could advance to a second round if one occurs. Democrats are running businesswoman Cindy Boatwright (D).

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35 Comments

  • Octosteel November 14, 2017 at 8:59 pm

    Keep an eye on how much some of these legislative seats swing against the GOP.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    If Keller is State Auditor and he wins the mayoral race, then I assume Gov Martinez will appoint a GOP replacement for the rest of his term when he steps down.

  • Mike1965 November 14, 2017 at 9:31 pm

    Oklahoma: Republicans won SD 45 and are up big early in HD 76 but the Dem holds a 60 vote lead in SD 37 with about half the precincts reporting.

    https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html


    #ThanksObama

  • Mike1965 November 14, 2017 at 9:33 pm

    Keller up 63-37 with absentees and early vote in.

    http://app.bernco.gov/ElectResults/


    #ThanksObama

  • Octosteel November 14, 2017 at 9:56 pm

    Trump + Fallin = Losing an R+21 seat

    • cer November 14, 2017 at 9:56 pm

      That is race still being counted….not over yet.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Octosteel November 14, 2017 at 9:59 pm

        The fact that it’s even this close is hilarious and says a lot.

  • Manhatlibertarian November 14, 2017 at 10:01 pm

    Ikley-Freeman up only 7 votes with 25 out of 28 precincts completely reporting.

    • Mike1965 November 14, 2017 at 10:04 pm

      If Ikley-Freeman hangs on Oklahoma is definitely turning blue in 2020.


      #ThanksObama

      • cer November 14, 2017 at 10:04 pm

        No it’s not….


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Mike1965 November 14, 2017 at 10:33 pm

        Oklahoma is now a Democratic stronghold. Alabama is next 🙂


        #ThanksObama

        • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 11:16 pm

          Maybe if we time travel to your birth year…


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

          • TexasR November 14, 2017 at 11:22 pm

            I mean, the joke during the campaign was that the Donald would make America 1964 again. 😉


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

  • Octosteel November 14, 2017 at 10:06 pm

    So is Fallin like Oklahoma’s Brownback? This is an absolutely amazing result.

    • cer November 14, 2017 at 10:12 pm

      I expect the GOP to easily win this seat back, even if they truly have lost. Someone dropped the ball on this one.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 10:15 pm

        The Republicans in Oklahoma have been losing dark red seats left and right in legislative specials this year. That’s a trend. Democrats aren’t going to win there federally but it seems like they have a good chance of making the governor’s race competitive next year.

        • Octosteel November 14, 2017 at 10:17 pm

          Same thing is happening in NH. I don’t think they GOP there have held on to a single special election seat so far. 2018 is going to be nasty.

        • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 10:27 pm

          Makes me think that the Gov seat is likely to flip.


          29, M, R, NY-10

          • cer November 14, 2017 at 10:30 pm

            GOP will hold it….In fact if this very popular GOP Ok City Mayor wins the GOP nod, I actually think that it will be a blowout.

            http://mick2018.com/


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 10:34 pm

              If your crystal ball says so.

              • cer November 14, 2017 at 10:45 pm

                OK. has a history of being a very red state, pretty easy to predict that the GOP is still likely to hold it. However, it’s always nice to dream.


                Conservative first, Republican second!

                • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 10:49 pm

                  Then why does the GOP keep losing legislative seats where Trump got 60-75% of the vote?

                  • cer November 14, 2017 at 10:55 pm

                    GOP did win two other specials in OK.

                    Perhaps, they took that third one for granted.


                    Conservative first, Republican second!

                    • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 10:57 pm

                      You do know there have been more than 3 specials in OK this year right?


                      36/M/NY-01 (D)

                  • Son_of_the_South November 15, 2017 at 12:11 am

                    Because OK is very white, specials are very low-turnout, and liberal white Dems are super-energized right now? Oh, and OK Dems have a history of winning specials, even in R-leaning years.


                    24, R, TN-09
                    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • Midnight901 November 15, 2017 at 12:15 am

                      32,000 turned out in this SD in 2016, 4500 turned out today. The last election in 2012 had roughly the same number of voters as today and was won by the R with a 3000-1500 vote margin.

                      Basically 600 extra Dems turned out and Republicans didn’t.

                • buckeyes95 November 14, 2017 at 11:40 pm

                  Oklahoma is very red at the federal level, but federal race results don’t always transfer to the statewide level. In 2006 Dem Brad Henry got just barely under 2/3 of the vote, so it isn’t too unusual for Democrats to win at the state level even today. Gubernatorial candidates often distance themselves pretty well from whatever is going on nationally, which is why there are Republican governors in Massachusetts and Vermont and a Democratic governor in Louisiana. With how unpopular Fallin is I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dems won next year if Edmondson is their candidate.


                  R in OH-12

  • bluewahoo November 14, 2017 at 10:53 pm

    Is there any place that has tracked all the Trump districts that have flipped so far? All I can recall is a handful of NH house seats (was it more than one?), the Long Island assembly seat, two OK senate seats, and two OK house seats. That right?

    You can throw in the VA-85, but that wasn’t a special.

    • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 10:54 pm

      Two Trump seats in Georgia flipped last week.

      Not sure but maybe Ballotpedia.

    • cer November 14, 2017 at 11:00 pm

      Yes Tek, I’m well aware of that, and I’m not particularly concerned about them moving forward. Certainly not in the state of OK.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 11:05 pm

      Gabriel Debenedetti‏Verified account
      @gdebenedetti
      Following Following @gdebenedetti
      More
      Latest in an under-covered trend: a Dem just won a Trump +39 (h/t @DKElections) Tulsa, OK-area state legislature seat — that’s the party’s 32nd red-to-blue flip since Nov ’16…


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • andrew_1918 November 14, 2017 at 11:41 pm

        86k people in District 37… 4437 voted

        • cer November 15, 2017 at 5:41 pm

          Perhaps, Tek, you think some of us should be in the sky falling mode, but I won’t panic over a special election with an incredibly low turn out. The GOP needs to get some sig things accomplished before 2018, and we’ll see what happens.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

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