Political Roundup for November 14, 2017

Governor:

CO-Gov: Arapahoe District Attorney George Brauchler (R) is dropping out of the race for governor and will instead run for the open Attorney General spot. Brauchler was once considered one of the favorites for the Republican nomination but the GOP primary has gotten especially crowed with the entry of former Rep. Tom Tancredo, Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton and Victor Mitchell. Brauchler should have a clear shot at the Attorney General position.

RI-Gov: We want the Fung, gotta have that Fung! A TargetPoint Consulting internal poll for Allan Fung (R) shows him leading the GOP primary by more than 20 points; Fung 45%, Patricia Morgan 24%, Joseph Trillo 10% and unsure at 20% and Fung beating incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) 46% to 41%.

WI-Gov: The field of Democrats seeking their party’s gubernatorial nomination has grown even larger. Firefighter union chief Mahlon Mitchell announced he will run for Governor. Mitchel, who is African American, was the Democrat nominee for Lt Governor in the 2012 recall elections. Other Democrats that are running or actively exploring a run include Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, former state Rep. Kelda Roys, state superintendent of public instruction Tony Evers, former Democratic Party chairman Matt Flynn, Milwaukee businessman Andy Gronik, former Wisconsin Democracy Campaign executive director Mike McCabe, Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, Rep. Dana Wachs, Michelle Doolan, Bob Harlow, Dave Heaster, Brett Hulsey, Kurt Kober, Jared Landry, Andrew Lust, Jeffrey Rumbaugh and Ramona Whiteaker. Candidates have until June 1 to submit all paperwork to appear on the Aug. 14 gubernatorial primary ballot. The winner of the Democrat primary will face Gov. Scott Walker who will have his 4th statewide run for Governor in 8 years.

Senate:

AL-Sen: At a press conference yesterday Beverly Young Nelson accused Roy Moore (R) of sexually assaulting her when she was 16 years old. Nelson produced a copy of her High School yearbook which Moore signed “To a sweeter more beautiful girl I could not say ‘Merry Christmas, Love, Roy Moore, D.A.”. As the scandal widens and polls show Democrat Doug Jones leading the election calls have increase for Roy Moore to step aside. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) became the latest to call on Moore to “step aside” and NRSC Chair Cory Gardner said Roy Moore is “unfit to serve in the United States Senate and he should not run for office. If he refuses to withdraw and wins, the Senate should vote to expel him, because he does not meet the ethical and moral requirements of the … Senate.” It is becoming clear that the only shot the GOP has at keeping this seat would be through some sort of organized write-in campaign.

MI-Sen: A new poll shows Detroit businessman John James in the lead for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. John James is at 24%, Rep. Fred Upton (who is currently seeking re-election to the House) is at 19% and former Chief Justice Robert Young trails with 7%. The winner of the GOP primary will face Sen. Debbie Spenditnow Stabenow (D) who is probably breathing a heavy sigh of relief that her GOP opponent won’t have a nickname with the words “Kid” and “Rock” in it.

NJ-Sen: Jurors in the trial of Sen. Bob Menendez (D) seems to be deadlocked. They sent the judge a note on Monday saying they “can’t reach a unanimous verdict on any of the charges” and the judge ordered them deliberating to try and reach a verdict.

House:

MA-3: Former ambassador to Denmark Rufus Gifford (D) announced his candidacy for the open  D+9 seat Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) is retiring from. Gifford, who is gay, has not lived in Massachusetts in 20 years but is originally from Manchester-by-the-Sea which is well outside the district. Gifford gained some notoriety in 2012 as one of Obama’s top fundraisers. He sent over 10 million emails to people on Obama’s email list asking for money and was even called the “Spam King” by BuzzFeed.

NJ-5: Our friend Miles Coleman has plugged the New Jersey gubernatorial numbers into the New Jersey congressional districts and finds that in NJ-5 was a virtual tie with Murphy edging out Guadagno by a mere 231 votes. Freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer won this district last year despite Trump winning the district by 1.3%.

OH-16: Former NFL wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (R) picked up the endorsement of neighboring OH-7 Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) for this open R+8 district. Gibbs will headline a fundraiser for Gonzalez at the Brookside Country Club in Canton, OH which is the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

PA-10: After several on again off again nominations for Drug Czar Rep. Tom Marino will seek re-election in 2018 to this fairly safe R+16 seat.

TX-29: In case you missed it, Rep. Gene Green (D) is retiring. Scroll down for our full write up and great mentioner on possible replacements for this D+19 seat.

SALT: The repeal of the state and local tax exemption could be the kiss of death for congressional Republicans in states like California, New York and New Jersey. Seven California Reps. Darrell Issa, Dana Rohrabacher, Mimi Walters, Ed Royce, Steve Knight, David Valadao and Jeff Denham could all face major blowback if the Republican “tax cuts” end up raising taxes on their constituents.

State, Local & Other:

PA-Lt Gov: I guess when you are living in a former Chevy dealership and off of the trust fund your parents set up for you an official residence in Harrisburg with a full staff of state workers waiting on you hand and foot must sound pretty good. With that in mind Braddock Mayor and former US Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) has announced he will challenge incumbent Lt. Gov (and friend to state troopers and household staff) Mike Stack III (D).

Albuquerque, NM-Mayor: Today is election day in Albuquerque. The latest Journal Poll published before the election had state Auditor Tim Keller (D) with a 16 point lead over City Councilman Dan Lewis (R). We will have a preview and open thread at Noon ET; our liveblog will start at 9PM.

New Orleans, LA-Mayor: The latest University of New Orleans Poll has Latoya Cantrell posting a 11 point lead over Desiree Charbonnet ahead of Saturday’s runoff election.

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165 Comments

  • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 6:37 am

    I think it is quite unlikely that a special prosecutor against HRC will be ever appointed. The letter feels more like keeping Trump and Congress happy, without anyone planing real action.
    But the disscussion alone is harmful for Trump and republican and everyone involved should forget about it. A special prosecutor to look into HRC would be a great turnout maschine for dems. And most likely the best way to make HRC more popular.
    Forget getting anything bipartisan done while a enraged dem base is on the warpath.

    And Trump should really think about how much he would like to have a special prosecutor digg through his and his families whole life. Once you appoint a special prosecutor to investigate your political opponent little is stopping the next president of the opposing party to do the same. Not hard to imagine a democrat being elected president on a big anti-trump wave in 2020 and appointing a partisan special prosecutor as one of his first acts in office.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/11/13/justice-dept-won-t-rule-out-another-special-counsel-to-investigate-uranium-one-and-clinton.html

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 7:06 am

      Waiting until 2021? The next Democratic Congress in 2019 will be investigating Trump left and right.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 8:53 am

      It seems that Jeff Sessions doesn’t like the idea of quitting and going back to his senate seat as some in the WH are suggesting

      • edtorres04 November 14, 2017 at 9:07 am

        According to Robert Costa, people close to him are saying that he will consider if Trump asks him. This whole thing is in the president’s hands.

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 10:12 am

          Trump should pardon Bill and Hillary. It’d be the ultimate trolling.

          • californianintexas November 14, 2017 at 11:56 am

            Quite a turnaround (flip-flop) from “Lock Her Up!” Unless he wasn’t being serious then.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • davybaby November 14, 2017 at 4:28 pm

            I believe one needs to accept a pardon in order for it to take effect.

    • HS November 14, 2017 at 9:10 am

      Ha ha ha. So a special prosecutor would incite the Democrats? I am shaking. As if they are not already incited by Trumps very existence. I am sure you are strongly opposed to the Mueller appointment, for exactly the same reasons? Because of the incitement.

      And btw, you can’t threaten someone with something you are already going to do – the Democrats will surely go after Trump legally after he leaves office.

      Btw, doesn’t the GOP want Hillary to run again, and win the nomination? This is the woman who has lost two races she was the heavy favorite for, including one against Trump. If anyone has shown an ability to lose to Trump, it is her.

      With all that said, it is unlikely a new special prosecutor will be appointed. Sessions is easily intimidated by Democrats; what a disaster he has been. And Rosenstein was involved with the Uranium One scandal, so he will never appoint one (along with Mueller, Comey, and McCabe). He doesn’t want someone investigating him.

    • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 1:46 pm

      I would support a special prosecutor for this, the Clintons are thoroughly corrupt (although she would still have done less damage long term than Trump). However Sessions told Congress during his confirmation that he would recuse himself on anything with the Clintons due to his comments during the campaign, and he should so. Appoint the special prosecutor and recuse yourself from any more decisions on the Clintons.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 3:40 pm

        But if the Clintons are thoroughly corrupt it shoud be easy to make a case even without a special prosecutor. Appointing an independant prosecutor under political pressure would only taint any possible court case.
        Just imagine what a field day HRC’s army of lawyer would have questioning the prosecutor and the way he was appointed. Add to that Trump tweeting about the case and how guilty HRC is…

        Even if she was guilty good luck trying to convince a jury on that if the whole case seems to be political hit job.

        • HS November 14, 2017 at 5:50 pm

          You can say the exact same thing about the current special prosecutor.

          I actually don’t think we need a special prosecutor for this case, or for the bogus Mueller investigation. But if you are going to have the Mueller one, than the charges against Hillary are far more serious and have far more supporting evidence.

          • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 6:10 pm

            How is a special prosecutor appointed by Trump’s own administration the same as appointing a special prosecutor to look into your political opponent?
            Mueller by the way is an republican and was nearly universally praised by both sides as he was appointed. Good luck trying to find a dem as a special prosecutor for HRC and have dems praising him.

            • HS November 14, 2017 at 6:58 pm

              Mueller is a best buddy if not mentor of Jim Comey. Comey was fired by Trump. That is an unbelievable conflict of interest. Normal people would get that; establishment types clearly don’t.

              Why do I care about finding a Democrat prosecutor, or getting Dem praise? Dems praise only dead Republicans, or retired ones who can be used to destroy active Republicans. That is why they are praising Bush now.

              • rdw72777 November 14, 2017 at 7:06 pm

                No one’s praising Bush. Saying he’s not as bad as Trump isn’t praise.

                • jncca November 14, 2017 at 7:23 pm

                  I still consider Bush a good amount worse than Trump.


                  24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • TexasR November 14, 2017 at 7:30 pm

                    You’re joking, right?


                    Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                    Be careful what you wish for

                    • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 7:56 pm

                      The Iraq War and the countless casualties are a bigger to deal to some on the left than Trump. Not saying I agree with it, but I’ve seen it voiced a lot by certain segments of the left, especially Bernie fans.


                      36/M/NY-01 (D)

                • HS November 14, 2017 at 8:03 pm

                  We have had this discussion before. You are still wrong. Dems are certainly praising Bush now. Just Google it, if you want to.

                  • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 8:58 pm

                    Not all Democrats. And again, as much as republicans like to repeat that, Democrats are not praising Bush’s policies. They are praising him as a PERSON compared to Trump. There is a huge difference. No one has flipped to Pro-Iraq War or Privatization of Social Security on the left.


                    36/M/NY-01 (D)

                    • HS November 14, 2017 at 9:12 pm

                      I don’t remember ever saying Dems switched on the issues. I said what you just acknowledged is true.

                      And no normal person would ever think I meant every single Democrat.

                      But don’t worry – I still think you hate the Iraq war, and those evil neo-cons, who want to waste American blood for oil!

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus November 14, 2017 at 7:20 am

    I remember Gifford from his time in Denmark, he made the headlines up here in Norway as well. He had a reality show for a while: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cygg0cZZqnA


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 8:23 am

    Alixandria Lapp‏
    @AliLapp
    Follow Follow @AliLapp
    More
    In an Upstate NY district Trump carried by double digits (NY-22), GOP incumbent Claudia Tenney is losing to Democrat Anthony Brindisi 47/41.

    Dean Phillips is defeating Erik Paulsen 46/42 in MN-03, a suburban Minneapolis CD. Trump: 41/55, Ryan: 31/63.

    In NE-02, former Congressman Brad Ashford is leading the man who beat him in 16, Don Bacon, 49% to 40%. Trump at 42/54; Ryan at 28/62.

    PPP/Patriot Majority

    They also did a bunch of R Incumbents vs Generic D polls, but I don’t think anyone finds those very useful. If you do, she posted all of them on her feed.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 8:30 am

      If this seat falls (NY-22), we aren’t talking about whether PA-6 or PA-7 falls, but whether PA-16 or PA-4 falls. Anywhere with a sizable amount of whites who are not full blown MAGA is now endangered. Trump has probably pushed the bulk of college educated whites plus those who have similar sensibilities into a leftward social vent.

      The generic numbers are interesting for me as we saw last week good competent Republicans could not stand up to this wave even in local elections in townships where Trump won in Chester County.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 8:45 am

        What I find really interesting is that Paul Ryan has basically become Nancy Pelosi of 2010/14. His numbers are much worse than Trumps. Signaling that Ds should focus on policy and not Trump.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • pstchrisp November 14, 2017 at 8:53 am

          The hate for Trump is much stronger than the dislike for Ryan though. If you polled all registered voters, R, D, and I and asked if you were forced to choose either Paul Ryan or Donald Trump as President, I think Ryan would win.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 9:08 am

            Hate for Paul Ryan is a mile wide but an inch deep. Hate for Trump is half a mile wide but 10 miles deep.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

            • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:31 am

              In 2010 and 2014 Nancy Pelosi likely had very high approval ratings with Democrats but very low approval ratings with people who might vote Republican. Disapproval for Paul Ryan is very strong among Trump supporters. I’m guessing that Trump has higher disapproval ratings anyone who’d consider voting Democratic in 2018.

      • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 9:17 am

        White identity politics backfiring, who would have thought?


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • HS November 14, 2017 at 9:40 am

          That’s just silly. You may not like Trump or Bannon, they certainly aren’t full conservatives (but Trump plays one and Bannon is a kind of conservative), but there is little if any evidence that they are racists, or for that matter, Anti-Semites.

          This is just a Dem talking point, one they recycle every Republican President – see Bush II, Bush I, Reagan, etc.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 9:49 am

            Oh what else do you call Trump’s brand of politics? I liked the term Victim Conservatism before Trump, but that requires Trump to be considered a conservative. He more or less advocates an America that existed in the 1950s not anything that existed in the 1980s let alone today!


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • krazen1211 November 14, 2017 at 10:18 am

            Whatever they are describing backfired so badly that we actually won a Presidential election for a change? Shrug. I get the feeling that some folks are actively vested in the GOP simply losing every national election along with the culture and judiciary that goes along with that.

            Some folks wanted the GOP to add voters back in 2012 and now are getting upset that the GOP added 7 million Obama voters.

            None of this lines up with voting patterns anyway. Both Trump and Ed Gillespie gained with non-white voters compared to the 4 years prior baseline.

            • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 11:17 am

              Yeah we won with 46.7% of the vote against the worst Democratic nominee possible. That isn’t sustainable, I’m sorry. Not saying that the Romney path is any better, because it isn’t, but maybe if we had a reformicon candidate who’s raison d’etre wasn’t being an asshole hiding behind “culture is too PC”, our party might hit 50% in an election.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

              • krazen1211 November 14, 2017 at 12:56 pm

                I might agree with you, but Obama got 50% of the vote all while being a gigantic asshole. So I would not say it cannot work.

                Have we forgotten what he and his media did, because he was a mediocrity with a bad economy and needed to find a way to win? “Romney, not one of us” was literally the name of an ad. Russia wanted its foreign policy back. Something about a dog tied to a car. He was a sexist because he had a binder full of resumes of female candidates that he wanted to hire for jobs.

                Oh, and McCain did even worse. There are structural problems with the media, and the conservative media, that those reformicon types will have to address.

                • andyroo312 November 14, 2017 at 1:13 pm

                  Unlike Trump, though, Obama was not perceived as a “gigantic asshole” by a majority of the public.


                  MA-7

                • davybaby November 14, 2017 at 5:56 pm

                  Well, 53% (2008) and 51% (2012).

            • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 11:27 am

              Yes the GOP never wins any national elections except for 5 out of the 9 that occurred between 1980 and 2012.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • rdw72777 November 15, 2017 at 1:55 am

              Improving upon Romney (vs first black POTUS) and Cuccinelli (3-way race) isn’t really a heroic benchmark for measuring improvement with minorities.

          • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 11:12 am

            But I’m not equating white identity politics with racism. The type of campaigning that Trump did, and what Bannon currently is doing via Breitbart and the ilk, is to appeal to this us against them mentality. There are hints of both white identity politics and economic nationalism in there.

            It’s similar to what the Dems try to do with all the SJW stuff. I find both types of identity politics to be abhorrent, and it is evidently not working with college educated whites.

            FWIW, Trump/Bannon also campaigned and act a lot differently than the Bushes and Reagan.


            26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • HS November 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

              Identity politics has an extreme white racist connotation. I think it is wrong to call Trump or Bannon that. Once again, dislike them all you like, but they are not white supremacist types.

              The Dems call them this for partisan purposes. Just like they did against prior Republican Presidents and nominees. It is despicable, but it works.

              If you want to be a tool of the Democrats, that is your choice. But I won’t. And it is sad that so many Republicans on a Republican leaning site goes along with this type of Dem propaganda.

              • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 12:35 pm

                You and I just have a difference of an opinion on the current actors, because I agree with you otherwise with previous administrations. I don’t think Trump and Bannon are actually racist, but they’re using certain tactics to gin up animosity between different demographic groups (economic, racial, geographic, etc) to achieve nationalistic goals. Whatever you want to call it, it’s not healthy for the country.

                Probably should leave it at that so it doesn’t go into a policy derail though.


                26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

    • AD123 November 14, 2017 at 9:08 am

      MN-03 is a huge SALT district – tough to see Paulsen surviving a wave (or at all) if he’s getting rid of a deduction 40% of the district uses.

      • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 9:24 am

        If the GOP passses the SALT elimination they are basically waving goodbye to their majority as the backlash against SALT district Republican Congressman will be huge. No one wants their taxes raised to give tax cuts to someone else and the people on the short end of the stick are always much louder than the people who get a small benefit.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:32 am

          If they allow a SALT deduction of $10,000, the people getting the most benefit are the wealthy. So Democrats will be arguing for lower taxes for the rich while Republicans will be arguing for higher taxes on them.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 9:46 am

            The problem is that I bet the majority of the SALT claimers in the swing districts are Republicans. I am at a position in my life where it is a wash for me, but give me 7 years 2 kids and a bigger house and this plan stinks for me.

            Seeing the Republican Party does not want those voters anyway, we should be gleefully giving up these seats to run up the vote in MAGA territory.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

            • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 10:14 am

              Well without these seats there is no GOP majority. The GOP has maxed out in MAGA territory. These historically Republican suburban seats with with upper income white collar workers where the majority in the House lies. Screwing over these voters with tax hikes is a recipe for putting the GOP in the majority. A smaller topline tax cut with SALT that gives a little benefit to everyone is a heck of a lot better politically for the GOP then playing this Red states vs Blue states game that will bite us in the ass in 2018.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 10:26 am

                Oh I am being sarcastic in the last sentence. This is a dumb proposition. Angering upper middle class whites to appease the only dying demographic group, working class whites, is not a viable path to victory.

                Beyond the issue of getting votes, upper middle class and upper class whites are the biggest source of Republican campaign cash. I expect the first impact will be on fundraising.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • krazen1211 November 14, 2017 at 11:15 am

            Here’s some distributional figures.

            https://wtop.com/congress/2017/11/chairman-house-wont-agree-to-nix-property-tax-deduction-2/

            Basically every income group in the aggregate gets a cut, and the winner:loser ratio is somewhere between 90-10 and 80-20 in 2019. By 2027…..obviously the tax code will change again.

          • Jon November 14, 2017 at 7:44 pm

            I take this would be proposed cap of combined SALT deductions of $10K; neither a $10K of each type of SALT deduction nor a new total cap of all total deductions at the bottom of Schedule A?
            If so, that provision would have zero impact on my taxes; I’d still itemize and my overall benefit would be whatever the changes are from the bracket rate changes. (I’m also assuming that personal property taxes would be treated exactly like real estate property taxes.)
            On the Missouri side; there wouldn’t be that many people exceeding the $10K combined SALT deduction; it would be felt at a somewhat lower income level on the IL side than the MO side due to how absurdly high local property tax rates are across the river.

            So if they need to cap SALT rather than eliminate it to get the votes in the House & the Senate it’s fine with me. And I’m not married to a given dollar amount for the cap either if it would be easier to pass with a different dollar amount; from a negotiation standpoint might be better to start with a proposed lower cap and raise it later as a compromise than attempt the reverse.


            45, M, MO-02

      • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 1:56 pm

        The SALT issue will hurt even in non-SALT districts. The majority of voters already has stereotypes about Rs, that they want to help the rich. If the Ds attack the tax reform package as helping the rich while raising taxes on *some* in the middle class, many voters will simply assume that *their* taxes have been increased (even if not true). This was the same thing with the Medicare cuts in Obamacare in 2010. Many voters assume that both parties in Washington is actively hurting them, and that is the mindset that they start with.

        My guess is that there is no way to sell this tax reform package to the country. It is going to be a political loser in the short term. If that is the case, then pass a tax reform package that would be the best for the economy. Tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy help the economy far more than tax cuts to the middle class. Unfortunately, solid economics is politically unpopular and vice versa.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • krazen1211 November 14, 2017 at 1:58 pm

          W got around this by mailing out rebate checks. Hard for leftists to lie when average Joe has cash in hand.

        • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 2:40 pm

          To be politically popular tax cuts have to be like Oprah giving out cars. “You get a tax cut and you get a tax cut”. Raising taxes on some to pay for the tax cuts on others is political poison. Raising taxes on the key swing voters in suburban blue state congressional that your majority in Congress is depended upon and where you have your most vulnerable members in 2018 is pure insanity.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 2:51 pm

          If the SALT deduction is limited to $10,000 the only people who won’t be able to deduct all their state taxes are people making in six figures. If Democrats want to oppose a tax increase on people they’ve been trying to increase taxes on, then Republicans should have something to run on.

          • rdw72777 November 14, 2017 at 3:03 pm

            That’s not true. You could easily be below $100k and have $10k+ in state/local income taxes and property taxes.

            Then again it seems like the proposal is to allow only the property tax up to $10k…are there proposals for allowing state/local income tax deduction to remain.

            • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 3:43 pm

              I had heard it was $10k on each not $10k combined but maybe I haven’t heard right. I have a well valued house and don’t pay $10k in property taxes.

              • rdw72777 November 14, 2017 at 4:01 pm

                If it’s $10k in each problem solved, but I don’t think it is each.

              • krazen1211 November 14, 2017 at 4:11 pm

                Standard deductions are being doubled, so only 8% of taxpayers will even be claiming any itemized deductions at all.

              • Red Oaks November 14, 2017 at 7:19 pm

                Under the House plan it is $10,000 max on property taxes and no deductibility at all on state/local income/sales taxes. The initial Senate plan completely eliminates all SALT deductions. However I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually the House adds a $10,000 max on income/sales taxes as part of a compromise to get it through.

                Speaking more broadly, I’m skeptical that the current versions of the reform bills (including SALT repeal) actually harms the GOP on balance electorally. In 2013 North Carolina passed a major tax reform bill that cut and flattened tax rates, eliminated personal exemptions, increased standard deductions, and capped the deductibility of mortgage interest and property taxes – which is extremely similar to the reform bills in Washington now. What did NC voters do with Thom Tillis, the leader of those tax reforms? Oh yeah, they elected him to the US Senate in 2014 over an incumbent Democrat.

                Many states don’t have itemized deductions at all in their state income tax systems or they greatly limit them like North Carolina does. Only 6 out of 41 states (I don’t count NH and TN here) with individual income taxes allow federal income taxes to be deducted. Is the GOP hurting at the state level because of these policies?


                MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

                • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 7:30 pm

                  On the other hand NC elected a democrat as gov in 2016 over an incumbent who won by 13% in 2012. The case how much the tax reform bill in NC helped/hurt electorally is not really clear.

                • Jon November 14, 2017 at 7:55 pm

                  IL: No deductions at all. They have a few allowances (mostly the extremely common one at the state level to keep from being taxed at the state level on the state income tax refund.) They have a personal exemption; but much less than the current federal level.

                  MO: Has both a standard & itemized deduction; standard deduction is tied to the federal standard deduction and there’s also a requirement that in order to itemize for MO you must have itemized on the federal form. (MO Itemization = Federal Itemization – MO State Income Tax + FICA)


                  45, M, MO-02

    • cer November 14, 2017 at 5:52 pm

      All I had to see were the following three letters in that poll… PPP, and I pretty much new what to do with it.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • andrew_1918 November 14, 2017 at 8:55 am

    PPP (11/8-9):

    MN-03: Phillips (D)- 46, Paulsen (R)- 42 (Trump Job Approval- 41/55, Clinton +10)
    NE-02: Ashford (DINO)- 49, Bacon- 40 (R) (Trump Job Approval- 42/54, Trump +2)
    NY-22: Brindisi (D)- 47%, Tenney- 41% (Trump +16)

    Generic D vs GOP incumbent (aka push polls):
    CA-25: Generic Dem- 50%, Knight- 38% (Trump Job Approval- 40/58, Clinton +7)
    CA-28: Generic Dem- 51%, Rohrabacher- 41% (Trump Job Approval- 44/54, Clinton +2)
    FL-26: Generic Dem- 53%, Curbelo- 39% (Trump Job Approval- 37/59, Clinton +16)
    IL-06: Generic Dem- 51%, Roskam – 41% (Trump Job Approval- 38/57, Clinton +7)
    MI-06: Upton- 42%, Generic Dem- 41% (Trump Job Approval- 41/54, Trump +8)
    NJ-07: Generic Dem- 42%, Lance- 41% (Trump Job Approval- 43/55, Clinton +2)
    NJ-11: Generic Dem- 46%, Frelinghuysen- 44% (Trump Job Approval- 43/52, Trump +1)
    NY-19: Generic Dem- 46%, Faso- 40% (Trump Job Approval- 44/53, Trump +7)
    TX-07: Generic Dem- 49%, Culberson- 39% (Trump Job Approval- 37/59, Clinton +1)
    TX-32: Generic Dem- 48%, Sessions- 43% (Trump Job Approval- 39/58, Clinton +2)

    • pstchrisp November 14, 2017 at 9:17 am

      Wow, PPP usually is on the low end with Approvals, if Trump is only -9/-12 PPP in those NJ districts that’s a good sign for the incumbents.

      • StatenIslandTest November 14, 2017 at 3:15 pm

        It is. Plus in 11 you still have some Dems that would vote for someone like Essex exec DiVincenzo but not a shrill Montclair style liberal. Keith Kazmark was their best candidate but the numbers werent adding up for him.


        31, Jersey City

    • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:37 am

      PPP had polls showing big Democratic victories in the 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 elections. Of those Democrats had only one year they won the popular vote and that resulted in small gains. I have no doubt that the field is tilted toward the Democrats right now, perhaps to a significant amount. Some of these incumbents are in very safe districts.

    • GoBigRedState November 14, 2017 at 12:53 pm

      Absolutely no way Ashford is up 9 points on Bacon. Reminds me of the shock poll taken just a week before the election in 2006 that showed Scott Kleeb (D) leading Adrian Smith (R) in NE-3 by 8 points(Smith won by 10) and the poll just before the 2012 election that showed Bob Kerrey nearly tied with Deb Fischer(Fischer won by 16).


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

    • prsteve11 November 14, 2017 at 1:00 pm

      There’s no doubt that the GOP needs to get with it and start making some legislative accomplishments after last week’s elections. But these generic polls are at least somewhat suspect. Imo, PPP has gone from being a less partial Dem firm to more of a shrill partisan polling company that purposely loads questions to elicit a certain response. That’s particularly the case when their client is the Patriot Majority.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Republican Michigander November 14, 2017 at 9:56 am

    “””Sen. Debbie Spenditnow Stabenow”” – I absolutely refuse to use that nickname for Stab-me-now. Bad memories from the 2012 disaster campaign.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f69VmIgmhOk – This is the worst political ad I’ve ever seen – and it was aired for the Super Bowl.

    As far as the polls go, it’s going to be a buzzsaw if Congress doesn’t start sending things to Trump’s desk. Congress and POTUS need to get their crap together.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 10:00 am

      That’s why I crossed it out!!!! 😉


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 10:14 am

      Whenever I hear her name, I default to the ad.


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • RogueBeaver November 14, 2017 at 10:10 am

    AL: Seems unlikely state party will withdraw the nomination since it would cause civil war in the party. In 1986 Dem civil war resulted in Hunt’s election. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/alabama-republicans-will-decide-roy-moores-fate-later-this-week


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 14, 2017 at 10:30 am

      At this point, do we need to consider punishing the state delegation as a whole until the party acts?


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 2:00 pm

      Alabama voters need to vote for Moore with the promise that he will he expelled from the Senate by Christmas. Doug Jones is disgustingly pro-abortion, and a strong write-in campaign by anyone but Sessions will simply elect Doug Jones.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • OGGoldy November 14, 2017 at 2:31 pm

        And what should be the branding be in the message? “Vote for the pedophile, it’s important.” Or “Vote for Moore, because Moore is so unfit to serve he’ll be kicked out of office”?

        Honestly, the best case for trying to keep the seat in GOP hands is to go full in on a Sessions or Strange Write in and hope Moore can be Dan Maes’ed, or Joe Miller’ed. I don’t see. Scenario where Moore gets elected because of a promise to expell him. That doesn’t happen, has never happened.

        • Izengabe November 14, 2017 at 2:47 pm

          100% agree! Moore only got about 164K votes in the 1st round of the GOP primary. Those are his core supporters. Assuming turnout of 1 million for the general election (vs just under 1.178 million in 2014 midterms and 2 million in 2016) Moore’s core supporters probably only make up about 15% of the total electorate. That’s more than enough room for a write in candidate to run in and win with over 40% of the vote.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • fzw November 14, 2017 at 2:49 pm

          Not to mention, the GOP and Alabamans would be roundly mocked for it non-stop.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 2:49 pm

          Let’s assume for a moment that Moore never touched any of these women since that’s unproven. What seems obvious is that when he was in his 30’s he would ask teenage girls out. I couldn’t go into the voting booth and vote for someone like that without feeling dirty. I’m okay with people who are pro-abortion in congress compared to someone this slimy. There’s simply no way any Republican should encourage someone to vote for Moore.

          • StatenIslandTest November 14, 2017 at 3:11 pm

            Is Doug Jones comparable to Bill Clinton or is he further left? This would probably be Likely D now with a Howell Heflin type.


            31, Jersey City

            • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 9:49 pm

              Comparable to Bill Clinton on most issues, far more pro-abortion (supports abortion until birth, says that he’s a “right to lifer after birth”.) I agree that a conservative D would have a much better chance to win.


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 10:13 am

    #NJGov by Congressional District. Murphy flips #NJ02 & #NJ11 from Trump – also barely up in #NJ05 (results still unofficial). #NJ07 was HRC –> Guadagno. https://t.co/fToexbE7m6


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • StatenIslandTest November 14, 2017 at 3:10 pm

      The 7th truly is Whitman country surprisingly solid for Kim. These results should make the Democratic clown car skid a little in the 7th but it may gain traction in the 11th.

      I heard a Dem internal was D+5 in CD2. Not bad in this environment but if Van Drew gets in its probably lean D.


      31, Jersey City

      • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 3:50 pm

        But as some were saying, “it’s good LoBiondo is retiring because he is basically a Democrat!!!” even though he was holding the seat down for us. Of course, much of that faction of the party were Moore supporters and look where we are now.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • shamlet November 14, 2017 at 3:52 pm

          Brown’s 54% was impressive though as a non-incumbent in a year like this. I think he’d make it a Tossup against Van Drew.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 4:02 pm

            Yeah, he would probably be our best bet here.


            26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • Republican Michigander November 14, 2017 at 5:02 pm

          I’ll never complain about folks like LoBiondo because he’s got Atlantic City. I’ll give people like him, Collins, and Peter King a pass, like I do with Casperson and Green on Right to Work in Michigan.

          It’s the Arlan Meekhofs (Ottawa County) and John McCains (media glory hound) of the world that get my temper going.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

          • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 5:18 pm

            Which I completely get, even if I personally like McCain.


            26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • StatenIslandTest November 14, 2017 at 8:46 pm

              I always liked LoBiondo and I wanted him to run statewide.


              31, Jersey City

  • rdelbov November 14, 2017 at 10:50 am

    Does anyone have partisan numbers for proposed legislative maps in NC?

    https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4201102/Covington-Special-Master-Maps.pdf

    I can’t tell about the senate numbers-whether they are bad or okay?

    • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 11:07 am

      Politics Wolf says the new 19th district went for Clinton by 2.4
      https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/930220353695002624

      It looks like there was not a major change in Greensboro where the other Senate district was struck down.

      In the House map there are two districts that flip from Trump to Clinton compared to the legislature’s remedial map, one in Guilford and one in Wake.

      • rdelbov November 14, 2017 at 5:40 pm

        Likely a Burr seat-SD19 should be a tossup but does have a very strong GOP incumbent. Not sure the GOP fares all that bad under these maps

  • shamlet November 14, 2017 at 11:33 am

    Who do we think this is? I have a pretty strong guess but I’d like to hear others’ thoughts. http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2017/11/gop_lawmaker_male_lawmaker_exposed_himself_to_staffer?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=socialflow


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 11:47 am

      Hint?


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • shamlet November 14, 2017 at 11:59 am

        I don’t have any info, just a person who I’d suspect, so I don’t want to bias people by giving my thought first. But mine is someone who has already had multiple other minor scandals and survived.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • jncca November 14, 2017 at 12:09 pm

          I assume you’re thinking of Mr. Farenthold in that case.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • shamlet November 14, 2017 at 12:14 pm

            I actually wasn’t but that’s not a terrible guess either. My suspicion is Ken Calvert.

            Still trying to wonder who we’d suspect for the Democratic member.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • Lucas Black November 14, 2017 at 2:12 pm

              He-he, you said ‘member’.

    • Mayor Perk November 14, 2017 at 3:01 pm

      Not to be crass but I love seeing Comstock on the forefront of this issue in Congress. It will play well in her district.


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Mayor Perk November 14, 2017 at 12:49 pm

    NM-Gov/WTF: State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (R) (who recently quit the NM-02 race) is considering quitting the GOP and running as an independent or Libertarian in the governor’s race next year.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-mexico/articles/2017-11-13/the-latest-new-mexico-land-commissioner-may-go-libertarian


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Marist (RV) Generic Ballot – D 51% R 36%


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • district1 November 14, 2017 at 3:15 pm

      This reminds me of 2013, though of course the anchor is on the other side of the ship now…


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • pstchrisp November 14, 2017 at 3:29 pm

        From August 26 to November 10 of 2013, the Republicans led in exactly zero polls on the GCB:

        https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

        Granted the range was TIE to D+8-9. But it’s not like what we are seeing now is miles away from that. There’s a lot of time for things to get worse…or better.

          • Left Coast Libertarian November 14, 2017 at 3:41 pm

            The problem isn’t Republicans. They’ve turned out for all the elections. The Republican problem is that Democrats are getting unprecedented turnout. If that continues Republicans get swamped. On the other hand, it’s a better place to be in than good Democratic turnout/bad Republican turnout. In that situation Republicans would need to convince people not turning out to turn out. In this situation they’re hoping Democratic turnout returns to earth. Granted, there’s not much the Republicans can do to help that situation.

          • cer November 14, 2017 at 5:59 pm

            There’s also a good chance they will still be in much better shape later than they are…


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 6:18 pm

              As the article states, there is not a good chance they will be in better shape, let alone much better shape. A chance? Sure, things can always happen, but its certainly not likely.


              36/M/NY-01 (D)

              • cer November 14, 2017 at 7:03 pm

                It’s an opinion article, not an article of fact.


                Conservative first, Republican second!

            • andyroo312 November 14, 2017 at 8:08 pm

              What could possibly result in a GOP comeback between now and then though? Certainly ain’t gonna be tax reform that excites the nation and reduces Dem enthusiasm. I’m reasonably confident we’re in for a repeat of 2010, with the parties reversed.


              MA-7

              • TheWizardOf144 November 14, 2017 at 8:57 pm

                A major terror attack.

                • cer November 14, 2017 at 9:18 pm

                  Another thing that might motivate GOP voters to come out and vote in very large numbers is the following:

                  “Members of Congress will hold a press availability at 9 a.m. Wednesday to discuss their introduction of Articles of Impeachment against President Donald J. Trump.”

                  https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/930564811867516929

                  Afterall, I don’t call the Democrat Party the dumb party for nothing. Keep it up Dems!


                  Conservative first, Republican second!

                  • Boehnerwasright November 14, 2017 at 9:46 pm

                    We have a great example how MoC calling for impeachment might influence an election and it is recent. In 2005 Conyers and 38 co-sponsors tried to initiate the first steps for impeachment. Pelosi was opposed and it went nowhere, very much like the current version will go nowhere.

                    2006 was still a great year for dems. At least hard to make a case that talking about impeachment was a big problem for dems.

                    Wiki(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_impeach_George_W._Bush):

                    On June 16, 2005 Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) assembled an unofficial meeting to discuss the Downing Street memo and to consider grounds for impeachment.

                    Conyers filed a resolution on December 18, 2005 to create an investigative committee to consider impeachment. His resolution gained 38 co-sponsors before it expired at the end of the 109th Congress. He did not reintroduce a similar resolution for the 110th Congress.

    • GOPTarHeel November 14, 2017 at 3:45 pm

      We just had a test of this in Virginia and Republicans did not lose the legislative ballot by anywhere near this in a D+ PVI state.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 3:50 pm

    #JUST IN: No significant change in razor close House District 28 race. After Stafford provisional ballot count, Dem Josh Cole adds 11 votes, Republican Bob Thomas 8. Thomas lead now stands at 82 instead of 84 @nbcwashington


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Manhatlibertarian November 14, 2017 at 4:42 pm

      Per HoD 28, Local Board of Elections decided not to count 55 disputed absentee ballots today so that should be it unless there is a recount. Losing candidates can request a recount if the margin is less than 1% after the State certifies the local results; this should occur next Monday. With an 82 vote lead in HoD seat 28 and a 106 vote lead in HoD seat 40, I think the odds are these GOP leads will stand in a recount. However, for HoD seat 94 where the Repub only has a 10 vote lead, that seat is up in the air in a recount. Generally speaking Boards of Elections will usually accept votes found in an actual recount of ballots where the voter circles, places a checkmark or places an X where the circle is that should be filled in by pen. Since the voting machine doesn’t pick up these marks normally, they are only found by looking at the actual ballots. As a general rule, I think Dems are little more prone to make this mistake than Repubs from what I have read.

      In other recount news, in the race for Rensselaer County CE in NY, Dem Andrea Smyth has conceded defeat to Assemblyman Repub Steve McLaughlin as she concluded she couldn’t eke out a victory with the amount of uncounted absentee/provisional ballots remaining.

      http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • pstchrisp November 14, 2017 at 7:44 pm

      Wait so the Dem got 3 more votes added than the GOP, but the margin only shrunk by two?
      #RussianHacking #AllElectionsAreFixed #ThrowOutAllResults #Revote

      • Manhatlibertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:38 pm

        Well see that’s the new math. Anyway the Va Dept of Elections shows the Repub in the district has an 82 vote lead now, so I guess that is the number. What is also interesting is that in HoD seat 94, where the Repub now only has a 10 vote lead going into a probable recount, the Libertarian candidate got 675 votes or 2.8% of the vote. Needless to say, if the Libertarian had not been in the race I think the Repub candidate would probably have a lead now of at least 100 votes, if not more. In the other 2 close races there was no Libertarian candidate and those races are not as close as this one with regard to the Repub lead.

        • prsteve11 November 15, 2017 at 12:22 am

          Does anyone have a breakdown of the total Dem vs. Rep overall popular vote for the House of Delegates in 2017?


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

          • roguemapper November 15, 2017 at 5:54 am

            The statewide vote was 53.9% D, 44.5% R, 1.6% O.


            Dem NC-11

            • andrew_1918 November 15, 2017 at 6:58 am

              10 Republicans and 23 Democrats ran unopposed

  • Mayor Perk November 14, 2017 at 4:01 pm

    OH-16: State Rep. Tom Patton (Union RINO) drops out.

    http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/11/state_rep_tom_patton_dropping.html#incart_river_home


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Son_of_the_South November 14, 2017 at 5:28 pm

      Good


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Mayor Perk November 14, 2017 at 4:45 pm

    PA-Gov: State House Speaker Mike Turzai (R) is in.

    http://fox43.com/2017/11/14/pa-speaker-of-house-mike-turzai-to-run-for-governor/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • HS November 14, 2017 at 6:03 pm

      Wow – that is yuuuggge. Turzai must be pretty confident he can beat Wolf (I am not so confident, although I hear Wolf is weak).

  • Mayor Perk November 14, 2017 at 4:48 pm

    IN-Sen: Businessman Terry Henderson (R) drops out; citing fund raising difficulties.

    http://www.journalgazette.net/blog/political-notebook/20171113/henderson-quits-us-senate-race


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Son_of_the_South November 14, 2017 at 5:30 pm

      Hey, at least he’s being honest about it. I appreciate that.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 5:40 pm

    https://twitter.com/nagemb/status/924036427251412995

    #metoo has started a wave. This one is against Inouye.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • shamlet November 14, 2017 at 5:58 pm

      Similar story came out back in ’92. Nobody cared then.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 6:32 pm

        Kirsten Gillibrand said he made inappropriate sexist comments to her but didn’t amount to anything physical.

    • MikeFL November 14, 2017 at 7:16 pm

      Is that real? Most of the accounts tweets are from 2012 posting about a weight loss scam…


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • TexasR November 14, 2017 at 6:29 pm

    The RNC has officially pulled the plug on Roy Moore’s campaign.


    Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
    Be careful what you wish for

  • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 6:37 pm

    Gay marriage has been approved 62-38 in Australia, majorities in support in every state.
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-same-sex-marriage-survey-results-graphics-2017-11

    • jncca November 14, 2017 at 6:47 pm

      I thought Western Australia was the most conservative part of the country, but New South Wales was the lowest for same-sex marriage. Anyone know why?


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Jon November 14, 2017 at 8:01 pm

        I think Western Australia is more Libertarian than Conservative.
        Looks like New South Wales contains Sydney; perhaps more more minorities there; so same reason as the breakdown of Prop 8 by county within CA a few years back?


        45, M, MO-02

    • Tekzilla November 14, 2017 at 7:57 pm

      I thought this was just a semi pointless poll that the PM claimed would spur him into action to actually passing it if it won?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Manhatlibertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:25 pm

        It was a non binding referendum but PM Turnbull says he will respect the result and introduce legislation into parliament to legalize gay marriage by Xmas, so I assume it will happen, particularly since the yes vote was so high.

  • MosheM November 14, 2017 at 6:54 pm

    New Alabama poll: Moore 49%, Jones 43%, Undecided 8% https://t.co/nRpuOv0htU https://t.co/jrH8DjUxyE

    I think that the polls will underestimate D turnout and R depression.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 6:57 pm

      I think you’re right but it’s actually amazing that Moore is still leading. I guess it’s true that a Republican candidate could molest children, or shoot someone on 5th ave, and not lose the #MAGA base.

      • cer November 14, 2017 at 7:06 pm

        I think there is still a decent chance that he will win, unless the GOP can find a MEGA candidate to jump in and suck the energy out of the room. Paging Jeff Sessions!


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • rdw72777 November 14, 2017 at 7:08 pm

          I still think there’s a chance the Senate seats him after he wins.

          • segmentation_fault November 14, 2017 at 7:15 pm

            Yeah. If Moore wins and they try to expel him, Hannity & co. will go nuts.

            Probably what will happen is that they will demand Moore be proven guilty before being removed. And enough GOP senators will be afraid of Bannon & the base that they will not have enough votes to expel him.

            • cer November 14, 2017 at 7:26 pm

              They will first swear him in, and then EXPEL him. The GOP Gov will replace him with another Republican. IMHO Hannity and company won’t lose any sleep over it.


              Conservative first, Republican second!

            • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 9:46 pm

              I agree that Hannity, Bannon and other will go bonkers, but the senators are going to have hearings and will have to expel Moore.


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

              • StatenIslandTest November 14, 2017 at 10:51 pm

                Would Democrats be willing to expel another troubled Senator if they can expel Moore?

                In my world I could live with Doug Jones representing Alabama and Tom Kean Jr representing New Jersey.


                31, Jersey City

                • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 11:10 pm

                  Highly unlikely they will expel Menendez before Murphy takes office. I doubt they would be willing to expel him at any time if there is a hung jury on the major charges.


                  Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

                • rdw72777 November 15, 2017 at 2:00 am

                  Nothing stopping McConnell from trying to make this happen now. Of course he knows there’s a slippery slope and would never do it, 2/3 of Republicans wouldn’t vote for it.

                  So it’s not really a “Would Dems do XYZ…” question.

                • Izengabe November 15, 2017 at 12:36 pm

                  There is no way in hell Chris Christie would appoint Tom Kean Jr. to anything! The two do not get a long and Christie is clearly in YOLO mode right now.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • roguemapper November 15, 2017 at 12:55 am

                Well, it would seem that you’re mistaken about Hannity: “For me, the judge has 24 hours,” Hannity said. “You must immediately and fully come up with a satisfactory explanation for your inconsistencies… You must remove any doubt. If you can’t do this, then Judge Moore needs to get out of this race.”

                https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/hannity-moore-alabama-allegations-244913


                Dem NC-11

      • prsteve11 November 14, 2017 at 8:14 pm

        If you want to see how the MAGA base thinks, read a few comments on Breitbart or FoxNews and it has surprised me how uniformly supportive they are of Moore and angry they are at the media and the GOP establishment. Just so you know, I’m not a Breitbart guy, but I do check what they and Fox people say from time to time. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Moore still wins.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

        • Manhatlibertarian November 14, 2017 at 9:18 pm

          I think there are 2 contradictory trends with polls in the Moore race. On the one hand there may be people who say they support Moore but may in the end can’t quite bring themselves to vote for him and just sit at home election day. On the other hand there may be a “shy Moore vote” who won’t respond to polls or say they are undecided but who intend to vote for Moore. We’ll see which group is more important.

    • andyroo312 November 14, 2017 at 8:10 pm

      Agreed, though I still see this as a coin flip. Moore could = Bunning ’04.


      MA-7

    • Indy1975a November 14, 2017 at 9:44 pm

      I still give 10-1 odds that Moore wins this race. The only way he doesn’t win this race is if Washington Rs prop up Strange or another write-in candidate that takes enough votes from Moore to let Jones win. Moore’s base is far too strong for a write-in to win this outright. (The lone exception here could be Jeff Sessions.)
      I just don’t think that Jones is going to win too many more votes that he already has. His ceiling is maybe 43-45%.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • Red Oaks November 14, 2017 at 7:38 pm

    Some MI political notes:

    Self funding MI Democratic gubernatorial candidate Shri Thanedar is facing a fraud lawsuit:
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/14/governor-hopeful-lawsuit-company-sale/107691348/

    The recently elected Flint City Council looks like it’s full of drama and disagreement:
    http://www.theballengerreport.com/leading-vote-getter-eric-mays-denied-flint-council-presidency/

    Recently reelected Detroit mayor Mike Duggan is mad about Detroit Democrats not supporting auto insurance reform in the legislature and will campaign against them in the August 2018 primaries:
    http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20171112/news/644796/in-second-term-duggan-aims-to-play-hardball


    MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

    • Son_of_the_South November 14, 2017 at 11:52 pm

      That article about Duggan and the auto insurance fight is fascinating. Thanks for sharing.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • andrew_1918 November 14, 2017 at 9:39 pm

    Update (PPP polls):
    NJ-02: Generic D- 44, Generic R- 39
    NY-22: Trump Job Approval- 49/46; Brindisi- 47, Tenney (R)- 41
    WI-01: Ryan- 46, Bryce- 39 (Trump Job Approval- 44/47)
    https://www.scribd.com/document/364424287/House-PPP-for-Patriot-Majority-Nov-2017

  • andrew_1918 November 14, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    Maryland: Trump Job Approval- 34/63 (2016: Trump- 34%)
    Hogan Job Approval- 67/22
    MD-Gov: Hogan- 43, Generic D- 28
    https://docs.google.com/a/opinionworks.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=b3BpbmlvbndvcmtzLmNvbXxjb21wMXxneDo0YjJkM2M4YTFjZTYwMTVh

  • segmentation_fault November 15, 2017 at 12:25 am

    Wow, Robert Mugabe taken captive by Zimbabwean military in coup!

    • roguemapper November 15, 2017 at 1:12 am

      Way overdue to put it mildly!


      Dem NC-11

      • Son_of_the_South November 15, 2017 at 4:34 am

        Finally, we agree on something! It’s been a while.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

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