Political Roundup for December 4th, 2017

Big Picture

Professions: Here’s a cool breakdown of professions by party. It’s from FEC data, so the numbers will be fairly skewed in several ways. Still, it’s interesting to see the differences, especially between similar professions and among ones in the same industry.

Congress

AL-Sen: CBS commissioned a poll of the upcoming special Senate election in Alabama from YouGov and found Creepy Roy (R, unfortunately) ahead of former US Attorney Doug Jones (D) 49-43. Most polls recently have found Moore ahead by single digits, but turnout patterns will be crucial, as they are in any special election (and really, every election).

AR-Sen: It’s not official, but Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may be on the way out. If that happens, CIA Director Mike Pompeo would be his likely successor. Pompeo’s likely successor is rumored to be Sen. Tom Cotton (R). Finally, we get to the point of all this, which is that if those dominoes fall that way, Arkansas Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin (R) may want to return to DC, this time in the upper chamber.

FL-Sen: In a contrast to much of his tenure in office, Gov. Rick Scott (R) seems to be pretty popular at the moment, or so says this poll by Saint Leo Uiversity. Scott’s favorables are over 60%, and the poll also finds him leading incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by 10 (!) points. The undecided number in the poll is high, and we still have eleven months until the 2018 general election, but this has to be putting a smile on Scott’s face.

UT-Sen: I’m not quite sure why, but the country’s clumsiest political puppetmaster is contemplating backing Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) for another term against a nascent bid by former Presidential nominee and business wizard Mitt Romney (R). This might make sense, since Hatch has been instrumental in shepherding the tax reform package, except that he was looking to retire. I have to assume that Bannon is just trying to block Romney, but that seems somewhat risky in Romney-loving, Trump-disliking Utah. It seems risky for Hatch’s legacy as well. We’ll have to see how this one plays out over the next few months to get a clearer picture.

Trump Districts: Politico runs down the Democrats in Trump districts who are therefore vulnerable next year, and it’s a decent summation. I’ll just add that if there’s a Democratic wave, most of them should survive to be absolutely slaughtered a few cycles from now. The only district that I’m fairly sure will fall is the open MN-01.

MI-09: With the retirement of long-serving Rep. Sander Levin (D) over the weekend, speculation now turns to who will run to succeed him. Sander’s son Andy (D) is thought to be mulling a run, as is State Sen. Steve Bieda (D). On the Republican side of things, no major candidates are getting serious mentions yet. The district, based in the inner northern suburbs of Detroit, moved into theoretically competitive territory in 2016. However, Demorats are likely to hold onto it in 2018 and it may get eliminated in a few cycles due to reapportionment.

NV-04: One of Rep. Ruben Kihuen’s (D) former campaign workers has accused him of sexual harassment. The way things are going with allegations lately, this could see his northern Clark County-based district open up in 2018. Kihuen beat former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R) last year by four points. Hardy was once thought to be a probable one-term wonder wave baby, but the district actually moved two points rightward in 2018. A return to Congress for the Man from Mesquite no longer looks impossible, though the Democratic nominee should be favored.

TX-27: Rep. Blake Farenthold (R), he of the infamous footy pajamas photo, has been unmasked as the subject of a sexual harassment claim by a staffer that ended in an $84k settlement. This may boost the campaign of his primary challenger Michael Cloud (R), or it may attract more challengers.

Governor

AR-Gov: Well, Arkansas Democrats, once dominant in the Natural State, just can’t seem to catch a break. Not only have they lost both Senate seats, all four House seats, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the legislature, but now they’re even struggling to field a candidate for Governor. It had looked for a few days like they’d found one, but former State Rep. Jay Martin (D) has now taken his name out of consideration. I’m sure that someone will eventually file for the race, but it has to be embarrassing to put a name out publicly and then have that person publicly decline. Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) will likely cruise to reelection with little opposition.

FL-Gov: The battle lines in the Sunshine State’s Democratic gubernatorial primary are finally starting to take shape. Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine (D) seems to have decided to take the corporate Democratic approach to raising the minimum wage, calling for regional differences in how much the wage is increased. Stay tuned for more differences appearing among the candidates as they jockey for different factions of the primary electorate.

State/Local

Aurora City Council: After a recount for a hotly-contested at-large seat on the Aurora, CO (pop. 325,000) city council, it appears that the more conservative candidate has won by 45 votes. However, it’s worth noting that progressives captured several seats on the once-red-but-now-blue city’s nonpartisan city council.

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115 Comments

  • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 7:50 am

    The professions chart is quite interesting. Some of it is driven by title choice (homemaker vs. stay at home mom). The same applies for my profession, but I fall into the second most conservative category for legal, corporate counsel.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:16 pm

      All of my practice areas are Republican-leaning, some of them overwhelmingly so.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • OGGoldy December 4, 2017 at 8:12 am

    I also like that professional breakdown. Though I do question how Civil Engineers can be among the most conservative engineers (which looks like 55-45) while structural engineers (which is a major subdivision off civil engineering) are among the most liberal at ~57-43ish D. My actual job title isn’t listed, unsurprisingly, but it closest matches to Mechanical engineers which show 50/50 split. That split.doesnt mesh with what I’ve seen in my career, but given that most mechanical engineers are white men, if I were.to work in the south, I’m sure I’d see the other half of that coin. Neat page.

    • Carolingian December 4, 2017 at 10:04 am

      I am in civil engineering and it seems about right to me, but I was confused by structural engineering being separate. Interestingly structural engineering politically is midway between architecture and civil. Makes sense since structural is the most similar to architecture portion of civil. 15 years ago, civil was probably 70 R, but shows how much white collar industry has moved towards Dems.


      21, NC-4, Ex-R

      • OGGoldy December 4, 2017 at 12:04 pm

        May be the difference between the Upper South and Upper Midwest. I don’t think I know of any mechanical engineers that voted for Trump, from work or friend circle. Though a few of them did support Romney. Engineering, here at least, is largely a bunch of younger white male college educated secular (or outright irreligious) nerds. That demographic here is pretty universally Democratic. In the South, it likely isn’t.

    • w920us December 4, 2017 at 10:19 am

      Definitely not surprised about the Dentistry field leaning to the right. I’ve met many libertarian leaning dentists.

      Same goes for some very hard-right Anesthesiologists.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • FiveAngels December 4, 2017 at 8:24 am

    What exactly makes motel owners more conservative than innkeepers? I expected the psychiatrists to be the most liberal among doctors, but what’s with the gap between pediatricians and urologists? Is it just gender gap?

    • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 10:08 am

      I am guessing “Innkeepers” are more likely to own a touristy place in somewhere like Stowe, New Hope, or Leelandu while Motel Owner is probably someone owning something else.

      Gender is probably part of the story with the medical distinctions. Females dominate residencies in family medicine, psychiatry, pediatrics, and OBGYN. Men dominate in surgery, emergency medicine, anesthesiology, radiology, and internal medicine. From my experience, most doctors I know are center-right in worldview.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • FiveAngels December 4, 2017 at 12:04 pm

        Besides gender, I guess some branches of medicine are more “touchy-feely, work together” while others are more like Randian vision of individual heroism (surgeons). This probably also explains how the gender gap comes about. I expected the doctors to have a slight Republican tilt on national level, but I’m guessing that the tilt ultimately depends on the region. Still, I’m sure Hollywood will keep producing medical shows without any conservative characters!

        Has anyone spotted any 100% groups besides the playwrights?

        • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 12:10 pm

          Yeah. Plus there’s also personality types… stereotypically urologists tend to be man’s-man types, while pediatricians tend to be more, for lack of any better way to say it, Hufflepuff-ish.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • Son_of_the_South December 4, 2017 at 12:44 pm

            Lol I’d never heard it put that way.


            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 10:15 pm

              I’ve heard it all the time. Widespread perception that “feminized” professions tend to be left-wing. From HR to teachers to nurses. Some truth insofar that the Nurse Unions are probably the most extreme in America (notably peppering Democratic state reps in CA with death threats for not institution single-payer.) And of course, you get women like this (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nurse-white-boys-sacrificed-wolves-racist-rapist-terrorist-woman-indiana-university-health-a8079486.html)

              But it’s also strange because historically, women have been the conservative voting demographic in most of history. It’s probably more of the “singles” gap. I can’t find it right now, but I remember a poll finding married white millennial women were slightly more conservative than their husbands!


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • Son_of_the_South December 4, 2017 at 10:31 pm

                I just meant the Hufflepuff comparison. I’d discerned the rest years ago.


                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Izengabe December 4, 2017 at 12:36 pm

          Also a breakdown between “free market” fields of medicine like plastic surgery and Dentistry and more regulated fields like pediatrics.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Red Oaks December 4, 2017 at 5:37 pm

          Those are good points about the gender gap and the nature of the medical practices. I also noticed that medical occupations that tend to work in smaller, independent practices and collect payment in cash rather than deal with insurance like dentistry, chiropractors, plastic surgeons, veterinarians, etc. tend to be very Republican. Those that often work in large hospitals like nurses, family physicians, OBGYNs, etc. are very Democratic.

          Health teachers aren’t quite 100% but they are the most Democratic group of all the teachers.


          MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 10:10 pm

            Some OBGYNs run smaller practices and end up very conservative. The prime example being Ron Paul. Also being around newborn babies all the time likely makes one apprehensive about the Doug Jones-type agenda of vacuuming 39 week-old fetus heads into meat bolognese


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:15 pm

      Motel owners, amusingly enough, are disproportionately from this one specific clan in India. Like 1/3rd of them in America.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/08/26/a-group-clamoring-for-opportunity-in-india-also-owns-40-percent-of-u-s-motels/?utm_term=.9b58cdbb0b90

      The Patels, by virtue of being Gujarati, are probably somewhat more conservative than other Indian-Americans due to a strong business orientation (as opposed to more liberal fields like academia) and support for the Gujarati Narendra Modi, who would be a far-right nationalist by American standards.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • RRR December 4, 2017 at 8:40 am

    @RepublicanMichigander: It was John Pappageorge, not Marty Knollenberg, who defeated Andy Levin for MI State Senate. (I’m posting this here because the Levin retirement thread probably won’t be getting any more clicks.)


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Republican Michigander December 4, 2017 at 10:38 am

      I saw that in the other thread. Thanks for pointing that out. I forgot about Pappageorge.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 11:41 am

        How could you forget Nick Pappagiorgio…he won 4 cars in Vegas Vacation.

  • MosheM December 4, 2017 at 8:59 am

    Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former president of Yemen, has been killed by Houthi forces.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 9:57 am

    Just for fun on Aurora Colorado:

    1..325k was the official 2010 count, the 2016 estimate is already at 360k people.
    2. 27.3% of the population is under 18 and only 8.9% over the age of 65!!!!

    None of this is that surprising given the Air Forece base as well as the Hispanic population increase found in much of Colorado but I did find it interesting that it looks like the population growth from 2010-2020 will be a higher % than from 2000-2010.

    Colorado’s demographics are pretty fascinating, it’s like nearly every demographic trend in America seems to converge.

  • w920us December 4, 2017 at 10:47 am

    Amusingly I was at an Eagles viewing party last night in center city with about ten people. And one of the people there was former Philly democratic city councilman Bill Green. Nice guy and passionate Eagles fan.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 11:45 am

      Not to be confused with current City Councilman Bill Greenlee, whose Wikipedia page still offers this delightful note:

      “Greenlee was elected to Councilman-at-Large in the Philadelphia City Council in a special election of 2006; his win and 2007 reelection are attributed to his possession by reptilian humanoids.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Greenlee

      • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 12:04 pm

        Beware the Lizard People, particularly the Philadelphia ones!

        • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 12:08 pm

          I’ll be watching W920US closely. I mean he’s out associating with Dems just for fun…seems like reptilian possession doesn’t it?

          • w920us December 4, 2017 at 12:25 pm

            Haha. I almost went to an Eagles game a few weeks ago with Ed Rendell and my sister and friends!


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

            • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 1:10 pm

              Your sports fandom is an odd tapestry of who’s who in Philly.

              • w920us December 4, 2017 at 3:10 pm

                Admittedly they are friends with my sister not me. So I just end up meeting them at these sports events.


                R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • MosheM December 4, 2017 at 11:35 am

    BREAKING: Sentences for ex-U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown and conspirators:
    Brown – 5 years; 3 years of probation.
    Ronnie Simmons (former chief of staff) – 4 years; 3 years probation.
    Carla Wiley (started fake charity all three used as slush fund) – 1 year, 9 months; 3 years probation.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Left Coast Libertarian December 4, 2017 at 11:42 am

      I know it’d be considered politically incorrect in some places but an inordinate number of the CBC ends up in the hoosegow. There’s a generation of Black lawmakers that felt that the rules didn’t apply to them. Hopefully they’re replaced with younger more honest lawmakers.

      • Son_of_the_South December 4, 2017 at 12:50 pm

        It’s really sad, honestly. I’m sure that part of it is a general lack of electoral competition. If you’ll definitely never lose a general election, then there’s less incentive to not be corrupt. Of course, most long-serving lawmakers in safe districts aren’t corrupt, but I’m sure the proportion is much higher than it is among those in non-safe districts.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Left Coast Libertarian December 4, 2017 at 1:21 pm

          I’m no sociologist but it doesn’t strike me as being about how safe they are. When John Street was mayor of Philadelphia there were complaints about him showing favoritism to his old friends with city contracts. Someone said that was the way the white politicians did it for years and know it was their turn. Maybe I’m remembering this wrong. Could be. It strikes me is that you have a historically powerless ethnic group who perceives that others profit off being in power. They get power and look to profit.

          • Son_of_the_South December 4, 2017 at 1:27 pm

            Oh yeah, that occurred to me as well. However, I think it’s a confluence of several factors, and I was trying to keep my comment electorally-related.


            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • danielfred December 4, 2017 at 7:21 pm

            Just wondering out loud. Perhaps similar feeling of powerlessness among white working class explains Trump’s success and perhaps (we will know a week from tomorrow) willingness to vote for Roy Moore. They perceive that global elites profit from trends that hurt them and then add insult to injury by disrespecting them culturally. Similar thought process among different groups. Wonder which group might start voting for scoundrels next?

      • Red Oaks December 4, 2017 at 5:54 pm

        Black electorates tolerate misbehavior by politicians far more than white electorates. Alcee Hastings was able to win election to Congress after being impeached as a judge. Kwame Kilpatrick was able to come from behind to win reelection as mayor of Detroit in 2005 despite massive obvious scandals because he depicted his problems as part of some white establishment conspiracy. Black districts in Michigan don’t just reelect legally troubled incumbents – they send already convicted felons to office in open seats like Bert Johnson and Brian Banks. In 2013 the City of Flint elected a convicted murderer to City Council. Black crime of almost all sorts is much higher than other races so it shouldn’t be surprising that such communities are less shocked by leaders behaving badly.


        MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 11:43 am

    MA Senate Pres. Stan Rosenberg (D) stepping down from leadership (“temporarily”) after his husband became engulfed in harassment scandal. http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/12/bryon_hefner_sent_nude_photo.html
    http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/senate_president_stan_rosenber_8.html


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 11:44 am

    NM-Aud: Gov. Martinez picks Bernalillo County commissioner and ’17 Albuquerque Mayoral candidate Wayne Johnson (R) to fill the seat for the rest of the term. http://www.kob.com/politics-news/wayne-johnson-state-auditor/4690473/


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 12:14 pm

    Perhaps my personal most anticipated SCOTUS case:

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/politics/christie-scotus-sports-betting/index.html

    I don’t think Christie/NJ has much of a chance of prevailing but this law is beyond stupid and I can’t stand the whole “it’s okay in Nevada but not NJ” logic.

    • Jon December 4, 2017 at 6:26 pm

      The scotusblog article today has New Jersey as the favorites to get (at least) five votes following today’s oral arguments.


      45, M, MO-02

  • Republican Michigander December 4, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    Interesting on the professions. I’m surprised on Catholic Priests although I bet there’s a big divide among age there with over 60 a lot more liberal. If they vote R, it’s often single issue (abortion).

    I think stay-at-home moms are more conservative than the graph, but usually those who are don’t donate to any political candidates.

    No surprise at all with these foundations, hedge funds, and venture cronyists I mean capitalists. If anything need to be taxed, it’s those. LOL at HR as well. That doesn’t surprise me in the least.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    New AL-Sen poll. Moore leading 49-46, with Lee Busby at 5%. Moore favorables at 42-48, Jones at 44-43.

    https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5d83bc45f4839ff4fb96bb8b8/files/15481ecf-ece6-4ef0-afe6-b46589b1ea89/ECP_AL_12.4_pressrelease.pdf


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:28 pm

      The closeness of the tax bill has also encouraged Team Trump to finally start supporting Moore. Presumably, we’ll see a wave of robocalls in the weekend before the election.

      https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/937641904338063361

      https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/937652739001212928


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • roguemapper December 4, 2017 at 12:39 pm

      I wonder how “very likely” voters differ from the usual “likely” voters. In any case, Emerson’s last poll was Moore +6.


      Dem NC-11

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:44 pm

        They were taken practically back-to-back, so this is probably less movement and more “we included Lee Busby.”


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • prsteve11 December 4, 2017 at 1:01 pm

          Good point. Considering Busby is a write-in, offering him as a candidate may artificially raise his numbers.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 1:03 pm

            Alabama also has straight-ticket voting, which should presumably benefit Roy Moore.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • roguemapper December 4, 2017 at 1:20 pm

              I don’t think that’ll make any difference. This is how the ballot will look for this special election. I doubt much of anyone will vote straight-party unless that’s what they intend for the senate race right below it. Not to mention this is a special election electorate which will skim out a lot of the less competent voters. It’s also worth noting that if someone fills in both the straight-party bubble and a candidate in the senate race then the latter overrides the former.

              http://sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/voter-pdfs/2017-sample-ballots/Generic-Gen-UsSen-2017-Sample.pdf


              Dem NC-11

              • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 1:30 pm

                You got to wonder how many Republicans who don’t like Moore will choose to vote straight-ticket instead of for Moore directly. This might be a really good thing for Moore.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                • roguemapper December 4, 2017 at 1:34 pm

                  My working hypothesis is that nearly all Republicans who wouldn’t otherwise vote for Moore or Jones won’t be casting votes at all since there’s nothing else on the ballot to bring them to the polls.


                  Dem NC-11

                  • Republican Michigander December 4, 2017 at 3:46 pm

                    “”My working hypothesis is that nearly all Republicans who wouldn’t otherwise vote for Moore or Jones won’t be casting votes at all since there’s nothing else on the ballot to bring them to the polls.”””

                    That’s why I think Jones will win.


                    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

                • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 1:35 pm

                  I think we’re over-thinking this election; it’s more akin to a retention election in that people are either voting to keep Roy Moore in their lives politcally or voting to get him out forever. I don’t think there’s a lot of mental gymnastics going on in the voting booth…Roy Moore has to have something like 105% name rec and about 110% allegation-rec.

                  It’s why I think he wins by close to 10…the opposition candidate doesn’t really matter.

        • roguemapper December 4, 2017 at 1:09 pm

          Oh, I realize that’s the main difference and I don’t think a write-in should be named in a poll. That said, it’s hardly the bigger issue with Emerson’s Alabama polls. The main issue is that Emerson doesn’t call cell phones. It tries to make up for that deficiency with an online panel. For that matter, JMC (Moore+5) only calls landlines and CBS/YouGov (Moore +6) is an internet panel. The only post-pedophile-scandal AL polls that call both landlines and cell phones have been FOX (Jones +8) and WaPo (Jones +3). 51% of Alabama households are wireless only and another 14% are wireless mostly, so this could turn out to be an interesting test of landline-only vs landline/wireless polling.


          Dem NC-11

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 1:24 pm

            I could see an unusually large age gap with a lot of the Roy Moore stuff. Even if it weren’t for the sexual abuse allegation.

            Take for example the much less disturbing side-allegations that Roy Moore hit on 17 year olds when he was 30. A lot of older people probably view that as not even that weird and those that do probably won’t view it as actually immoral (in a biblical ten-commandments sense I guess). Millennial morality on the other hand, is concerned with avoiding “awkwardness” – and they probably view almost all hitting-on-people as socially awkward and thus reprobate. And what’s more awkward to them than the age-gap between Roy Moore and his wife??? It’s the only mindset that can equivocate repulsive sexual harassment stories and say, Joe Barton’s embarrassing texts.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 1:33 pm

            Interesting point: cell phone users tend to be younger and a little more Dem leaning as I recall. Let’s see what the next Fox poll shows since they include landline and cell phones in their survey.

            Putting a write-in, Busby, in the poll creates a distortion since his name will not be on the ballot. Also he is only 1 of 5 candidates running a write in campaign.

  • segmentation_fault December 4, 2017 at 12:44 pm

    Software engineers are more than 3:1 D, the entire IT field more than 2:1 D. This is why it matters where Amazon HQ2 goes….


    En Marche!

    • Son_of_the_South December 4, 2017 at 12:46 pm

      Yeah, I tend to agree with you on this one.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 12:54 pm

      All of the cities on the theoretical shortlist are already very D leaning at about these ratios if not more D-leaning (Philly, Atlanta…even Dallas was more than 2-1 for Hillary over Trump).

      Theoretically it could have some impact but Amazon is going to go to a very D-leaning city and only going to make it slightly more D and likely have little impact on state and local elections where it goes.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:57 pm

        Pennsylvania and Georgia are both sort of swing states though…


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 1:09 pm

          Theoretically yes but I can attempt to diffuse both with my half-assed logic. Both cities are being chosen because they have the ready-made young talent in-place to work the expected 50k jobs, so there’s not really going to be 200k new residents in 5 years or whatever the projections are. I mean Comcast supposedly has moved what, like 10-15k jobs to Philly in the last 10 years and 2016 POTUS results looked very similar to 2004 in terms of both actual vote totals and the breakdown of D vs R.

          If Amazon picked Rochester-NY, Scranton-PA, Omaha-NE or Des Moines-IA I’d be far more intrigued by the political impact, but they’re not going to any such places.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 1:16 pm

            That’s reasonable. But there will be some transplants. And they’ll be dyed dark blue.

            I think you could also make the argument that there will be an outflux of people as well. People displaced by gentrification probably actually vote the same way as the gentrifiers. And large amounts of working-class non-white urbanites are packing up and moving to the South, especially Georgia.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • rdw72777 December 4, 2017 at 1:19 pm

              Outplacement folks would be even less impactful in Philly since NJ/DE are options and the political impact of moving there is even less than staying in PA. And I’m not 100% sold on out-migration actually increasing due to this, especially given the proposed locations in Philly.

          • Jon December 4, 2017 at 6:38 pm

            Doubt they’d pick any city in that second paragraph; none of those cities have enough existing IT workers to fill their needs even after accepting 100% of what few IT people currently working for them in Seattle would be willing to accept a job relocation to any of those cities.

            I’m somewhat familiar with Des Moines; that would cost them (or more precisely their IT contractors) a premium; mostly in the form of per diems to get people to temporarily relocate from St Louis & KC for six to nine month contracts if they can’t fill via H1Bs. Those costs would be avoided by picking a place with a bigger existing IT job market.


            45, M, MO-02

    • Jon December 4, 2017 at 6:29 pm

      I’m pretty sure Amazon HQ2 is going to be raiding existing IT shops in whatever area they locate to hire the personal(as opposed to either mostly hiring people out of college or an en masse transfer across country of existing personal) ; so minimal. That goes double if they locate in a city whose MSA crosses state lines.


      45, M, MO-02

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 12:58 pm

    After a recount of 6% of disputed ballots, Hernandez leads Nasrallah 42.98% to 41.39%. Protests continue. The opposition wanted something like 1/4th of the ballots recounted.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42225448


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 1:19 pm

    Yonkers Repub turned Dem Mayor Mike Spano is expected to announce his candidacy this week for the soon to be vacated Westchester State Senate seat of Dem George Latimer, who has been elected Westchester CE. The district is considered competitive but Spano would be considered a strong candidate (half of Yonkers is in the State Senate District). Dem Assemblywoman Shelley Mayer and Sanders activist Kat Brezler have also indicated interest in the seat. A special election is expected to be held in the spring and Dem party leaders will pick the Dem candidate. On the GOP side former prosecutor Dan Schorr and Iranian-American lawyer Sarmad Khojasteh have indicated interest in the seat, neither of whom are Grade A candidates IMO. In the closely divided NY State Senate, control of this seat may influence who controls the State Senate.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/yonkers-dem-mayor-run-nys-senate-article-1.3674588

    • CTIronman December 4, 2017 at 4:32 pm

      When SD7 in north Nassau opened we held it with a woman nominee; we need to go down that path in a demographically similar seat. Or nominate a popular local in Yonkers & hope D’s don’t nominate Spano

  • Boehnerwasright December 4, 2017 at 1:44 pm

    If someone is really bored here is an expert report(written for the challengers of the map) for use in the PA redistricting case in front of the PA state court.

    The TLDR version is the author of this reports mainly used computer simulations to show that with using traditional redistricting criteria like compactness and not splitting county lines the current map is very unlikely. Challengers of the current PA congressional map will try to use this report to show that partisan intent was the main reason the current map is drawn the way it is.
    Their best shot may be to convince the court that the current map is violating the PA consitution. Especially article 7 section 9 that say the districts should be compact and contiguous. (https://ballotpedia.org/Article_VII,_Pennsylvania_Constitution)

    https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/LWV_v_PA_Expert_Report_JoweiChen_11.27.17.pdf

    • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 2:24 pm

      The problem with that argument is that the term “Election District” has never been interpreted as meaning a congressional or legislative district, but the actual voting precincts. How this has been addressed is dividing municipalities into Election Districts based on certain size criteria and dividing municipalities to accompany any district differences.

      In addition, this would go against the Democrats famous argument of requiring competitiveness. You could gerrymander just as insanely without splitting municipal lines.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • RRR December 4, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    ChesCo State Rep. Harry Lewis is retiring. His Clinton +24 Coatesville-based seat in the Philadelphia exurbs/outer slumburbs moves to the Likely/Safe D border.

    http://www.politicspa.com/lewis-to-retire-state-house-seat/85624/


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 2:26 pm

      That is an automatic Democratic pickup. This seat contains some of the small part of Trumpy territory in the county, but there is nobody in the district who could perform nearly as well as Lewis.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 3:25 pm

        It’s ridiculous that we hold this district in the first place seeing as it was drawn as a Dem vote sink.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 3:43 pm

          There are at least 20 seats more Republican that the Democrats hold.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • andrew_1918 December 4, 2017 at 2:38 pm

    New PPP polls (11/27-28):
    CA-25: Generic D- 48(-2), Knight- 44(+6); Tax reform approval- 41/52
    IA-01: Generic D- 51, Blum- 43; Tax reform approval- 44/50
    CO-06: Generic D- 46, Coffman- 38; Tax reform approval- 41/57
    VA-10: Generic D- 48(=), Comstock- 41(+2); Tax reform approval- 40/58
    ME-02: Generic D- 46, Poliquin- 42; Tax reform approval- 44/53
    NY-24: Generic D- 45, Katko- 43; Tax reform approval- 40/55

    http://www.businessinsider.com/polls-house-republicans-gop-tax-bill-2017-12

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      CA-25 voted for Clinton by 7 points and PPP finds that the tax reform is only down 11 points. So much for CA Republicans flipping out over tax reform.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • krazen1211 December 4, 2017 at 3:42 pm

      The tax reform numbers basically look like Trump numbers.

    • CTIronman December 4, 2017 at 4:30 pm

      Katko is ok if he’s even with Generic D

      • cer December 4, 2017 at 4:48 pm

        Might I suggest you ignore these generic polls coming from PPP, but if not carry on.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 7:40 pm

        Katko won by 20 points even while Clinton carried the CD by 4 points. He may get a strong opponent in Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Meyer, who is considering a run for the office. But Katko has a reputation as a moderate which helps him with independents and even some Dems. So I don’t think it will be that easy for the Dems to knock him out, but it still is a CD that bears watching.

        • CTIronman December 4, 2017 at 8:00 pm

          OTOH Andrew C hates Miner & will surely sandbag her in some fashion

          • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 8:07 pm

            Yeah Andrew C and Miner have no love for each other, to put it mildly, so that may hurt her if she runs. But right now Andrew C is also mad at Katko for voting of the GOP tax cut bill, which doesn’t allow a deduction for state/local income taxes.

  • RogueBeaver December 4, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    CA-Lege: Dem Assemblyman Matt Dababneh accused of sexual harassment by a lobbyist. NSFW. http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-matt-dababneh-harassment-20171204-story.html


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 3:30 pm

    Congressional news:

    TX-6: Tarrant County Assessor Ron Wright (R) is officially in. http://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-worth/article187665558.html
    TX-21: Bexar GOP chair Robert Stovall is in. http://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/bexar-county-republican-party-chair-robert-stovall-running-to-replace-lamar-smith
    CO-3: Attorney and Glenwood Springs City official Karl Hanlon (D) is in; will take on State Rep. Diane Mitch-Busch (D) in the primary. https://www.postindependent.com/news/glenwood-attorney-karl-hanlon-to-run-for-congress/
    MA-3: Banker Bopha Malone (D) is in; 12th (!) Dem. http://www.lowellsun.com/breakingnews/ci_31481001/enterprise-bank-vp-former-refugee-bopha-malone-joins


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 3:31 pm

    TX-Gov: Dallas Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) denies reports she’s running for Governor; says she’s still considering. https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/29/reports-dallas-county-sheriff-resigns-ahead-likely-gubernatorial-run/


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 3:39 pm

    Today’s Row Officer News Blast:

    OH-Treas: 2006 nominee and ex-Ashtabula County Auditor Sandy O’Brien (R) is running again. She probably doesn’t have much chance against State Rep. Robert Sprague (R) in the primary, as she has lost multiple primaries and only won in ’06 against an incumbent closely tied to the toxic Gov. Taft. http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/12/sandy_obrien_announces_bid_for.html

    NV-Treas: Ex-State Rep. Andrew Martin (D), who lost a race for Comptroller in the 2014 wave, is running for the open Treasurer seat. https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/former-nevada-assemblyman-andrew-martin-to-run-for-state-treasurer/

    CT-AG: State Rep. William Tong (D) is exploring and ex-State Rep. John Shaban (R) is in. Meanwhile, there’s some chatter about changing the 10-year practicing law requirement, which makes it one of the strictest offices in the nation to qualify for. https://ctmirror.org/2017/11/28/thinking-of-entering-the-a-g-sweepstakes-you-better-read-this/

    MD-LG: Jealous picks former MD Dem chair Susan Turnbull as his running mate. http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-jealous-running-mate-20171128-story.html

    SC-LG: McMaster picks upstate Some Dude businesswoman as his running mate. http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article186907638.html

    MN-AG: St. Paul City attorney Samuel Clark (D), a former Klobuchar aide, is considering. http://www.twincities.com/2017/12/01/st-paul-city-attorney-mulling-run-for-attorney-general/

    ND-SoS: GOP official Will Gardner (R) is primarying longtime incumbent Alvin Jaeger (R). http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/news/4368843-nd-secretary-state-jaeger-may-have-republican-challenger


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    SC-Gov: Businessman John Warren (R) is considering. http://www.wyff4.com/article/greenville-man-considers-run-for-gop-candidate-for-governor/14001353v


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    ME-Gov: Pingree considering. http://www.pressherald.com/2017/12/04/pingree-hints-she-may-run-for-governor-in-2018/


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 4, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Despite being chair of the House Appropriations Committee, Frelinghuysen has been consistently voting against GOP priorities and otherwise defying House GOP leadership.

    Scalise apparently wants to strip him of his committee chairmanship, which I think is a necessary act going into another government shutdown crisis.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/04/paul-ryan-frelinghuysen-rodney-chairman-tax-bill-278446


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • krazen1211 December 4, 2017 at 3:47 pm

      Eh this isn’t the best year to give him incentive to retire.

    • Izengabe December 4, 2017 at 4:48 pm

      Frelinghuysen district has one of the largest percentage of filers who claim SALT deductions. Asking him to vote for eliminating SALT would be like asking a Congressman from West Virginia to vote against coal.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • CTIronman December 4, 2017 at 4:53 pm

        Yep. Even the 10K house tax carveout which takes care of the blue collar blues won’t help in a seat where folks write big checks to Trenton

  • CTIronman December 4, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    No it isn’t although Kim G. didn’t get hammered in NJ11 this Nov.

    • krazen1211 December 4, 2017 at 6:09 pm

      Kim G lost it by a point or two mostly due to Essex County. Which Rodney doesn’t win anyway.

      But yeah….median property tax in Morris County approaches 8k.

  • freego December 4, 2017 at 4:46 pm

    Injunction against Trump’s Travel Ban 3.0 has been stayed by the Supreme Court 7-2. Kinda surprising that both Kagan and Breyer joined the Majority. In any case, this was the inevitable result, as this kind of border enforcement is clearly within Trump’s powers as head of the current Executive Branch.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/supreme-court-full-enforcement-trump-travel-ban-affecting-51570802?cid=social_twitter_abcn


    24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

    • w920us December 4, 2017 at 6:03 pm

      Not surprised at Kagan and Breyer were the ones who joined. They are the sensible liberals on the court. The other two are bonkers.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 6:59 pm

        The third version of the Trump travel ban was much better thought out than the earlier versions and involved a careful consideration over 50 days of the adequacy of vetting policies in the countries on the list ( this is why Sudan, a heavily Muslim country, was removed from the list, since the government there make the required changes). Going back to a campaign statement like District Judge Watson did, and saying this was just a Muslim ban like some commentator on MSNBC, ignored the actual ban language and why it applied to the countries on the list. Kagan and Breyer at least looked at the actual language in the travel ban as opposed to engaging in repeating political slogans.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA December 4, 2017 at 7:06 pm

        They both are huge fans of executive power.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • segmentation_fault December 4, 2017 at 5:03 pm

    Mitt Romney‏Verified account
    @MittRomney
    16m16 minutes ago
    More
    Roy Moore in the US Senate would be a stain on the GOP and on the nation. Leigh Corfman and other victims are courageous heroes. No vote, no majority is worth losing our honor, our integrity.

    Romney hitting back at Trump for this morning….


    En Marche!

    • reedc December 4, 2017 at 7:31 pm

      Or just responding to the news that one of the accusers has evidence from the time.

    • andyroo312 December 4, 2017 at 7:31 pm

      My man!


      MA-7

  • LtNOWIS December 4, 2017 at 5:03 pm

    John Anderson, former IL Congressman and 1980 presidential candidate, died Sunday night st age 95.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-anderson-former-illinois-congressman-presidential-candidate-dead-at-95/


    28, VA-11

    • andyroo312 December 4, 2017 at 7:32 pm

      I, of course, would’ve been campaigning in the streets for him.


      MA-7

      • cer December 4, 2017 at 7:34 pm

        Of course you were…. 😉

        Thank God Reagan won, but RIP Mr. Anderson. 🙂


        Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 8:01 pm

    NJ attorney Michael Hopkins filed a statement of candidacy today to run in the June Dem primary against Senator Bob Menendez. He is a former Clinton campaign staffer who has also served as a commentator on the cable news networks, as well as The Hill and the Huffington Post. He is hitting the issue of Menendez’s behavior, stating that NJ voters should not have to vote for someone tainted by the culture of corruption.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-clinton-campaign-staffer-explores-primary-challenge-to-sen-bob-menendez/

  • GradyDem December 4, 2017 at 8:11 pm

    KY-House: State House Republicans continue to implode over the sexual harassment scandal swirling around Jeff Hoover. The Courier Journal is reporting that the harassment settlement was paid with donor money and Hoover did engage in an inappropriate sexual relationship with someone from his office. Meanwhile, Communications Director Daisy Olivo has reported that the Legislative Research Commission retaliated against her (a Hoover-controlled body) for reporting the relationship.

    Meanwhile, Republican C. Wesley Morgan has introduced a resolution to expel Hoover from the House. He also plans to introduce a resolution to expel Michael Meredith, another Republican from the House. Meredith sent inappropriate text messages to Morgan’s daughter.

    The money quote from Morgan?

    “Meredith needs to resign right now,” said C. Wesley Morgan. “I didn’t raise my daughter and teach her good values to be treated like a concubine to a state House member.”

    He added: “I didn’t run for the state House to join a fraternity. All this really makes me sick to my stomach.”

    Finally, Acting Speaker David Osborne hired a law firm to look into the matter. They only did a cursory investigation and found nothing. Osborne has now referred the investigation to the Legislative Ethics Commission.

    There are rumors that the FBI is investigating as well.

    http://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article188004059.html
    https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2017/12/04/jeff-hoover-daisy-olivo-whistleblower-sexual-harassment-retaliation-lawsuit/913707001/
    http://mycn2.com/politics/house-speaker-pro-tem-osborne-asks-legislative-ethics-commission-to-investigation-sexual-harassment-settlement

  • Conservative First December 4, 2017 at 8:57 pm

    MI-9:

    “Andy Levin of Bloomfield Township and state Sen. Steve Bieda of Warren are expected to run for the open seat that covers parts of southern Macomb and southeast Oakland counties. Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner and businessman Kevin Howley, both of Huntington Woods, are among other local Democrats who could jump into the 2018 primary.”

    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/04/andy-levin-steve-bieda-congress/108314398/

  • californianintexas December 4, 2017 at 9:03 pm

    No surprise biology is 87% D. Having been surrounded by many fellow liberal D classmates and professors in college is a reason why I was a D myself until 2013, after a year working in the private sector.

    Interesting about librarians and IT. My mom is much more conservative than the median librarian, while my husband is close to the average IT worker overall. My sister is also close to the average customer service rep.

    Also interesting how electric and electronic engineers lean D. I was thinking, from my dad and brother, that they leaned more R.


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • Jon December 4, 2017 at 9:58 pm

      In large part, the problem is that this site is rather simplistic; it only lists occupations and does not break down into age brackets.
      I’m also not sure if they counted retired professionals within their professions at all. One of my uncles was an electronic engineer and another was somehow involved in IT (either as a developer or manager) before they both retired.

      As you’ve alluded to; the site didn’t break down between single and married either.


      45, M, MO-02

  • cer December 4, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    Here are the list of the House Conferees for the tax bill.

    https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/937863224267083776


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Tekzilla December 4, 2017 at 9:45 pm

    RNC backing Moore even as new evidence arrives that disputes Moore’s claims.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 11:26 pm

      Likely the RNC reversed their position because of Trump and because polls indicate he might win. When the scandal first broke it looked like he might lose and Trump wasn’t as supportive as he is now. McConnell wants the extra vote now because the tax cut bill passed so narrowly (but Moore is a loose cannon so there is no guarantee he will vote for it). Jones has a lot more $ so I guess Moore will grab what $ he can from the RNC and probably run ads attacking Jones on abortion, although there is only a week left. But as far as I know the NRSC hasn’t resumed funding Moore so far. If it was up to me Moore wouldn’t get a nickel. Remember besides the sex scandal, he has made a lot of far out theocratic statements that to me indicate he doesn’t really believe in separation of church and state; and of course he claims 9/11 was God’s punishment for America’s sinful ways. Moore in the Senate will likely be a gift to the Dems that will keep on giving.

      PS I think the tax cut bill can pass without him. I don’t think the conference committee is going to change the senate bill so much it fails in the Senate.

  • w920us December 4, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    More fallout from the fake news from ABC’s Brian Ross.

    Along with being suspended the ABC president “announced that Ross, the network’s chief investigative reporter, will no longer cover stories related to President Trump.”

    ABC News president excoriates staff over Brian Ross’ Michael Flynn error
    http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/04/media/abc-news-president-brian-ross-flynn-correction/index.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Manhatlibertarian December 4, 2017 at 11:40 pm

      But also MSNBC has Brian Williams dealing with news, and he manufactured outright lies about his time in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina etc. How is it he still is involved with TV News?

  • shamlet December 4, 2017 at 9:56 pm

    IL filing deadline was today – Politics1 has a list of candidates: http://www.politics1.com/il.htm


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

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