MI-13: Rep. John Conyers (D) Resigns (Updated)

Update 12/5: Conyers has resigned and endorsed his ne’er-do-well 27-year old son John Conyers III (D) to succeed him.

Original post 11/29:

We don’t have independent confirmation yet, but a Detroit TV station says perverted Rep. John Conyers (D) will announce in January he will retire from MI-13 after twenty-seven terms. Conyers is still planning to serve out his current term and won’t resign. However, those things could have a way of changing if the pervnado vortex intensifies any further. Conyers’s decision opens up the safely Democratic MI-13, which covers the central part of Detroit as well as some largely white blue-collar suburbs to the west in central Wayne County.  The seat is 55% black and has a PVI of D+32.

As the first truly Detroit-based Open Seat in 26 years, this seat is liable to draw a very, very crowded primary. The place to start the Great Mentioner is probably with ex-Rep. Hansen Clarke (D), a former Conyers staffer who made the poor decision to not take on his old boss in a 2012 primary and instead lost primary races for the Oakland County heavy MI-14 in both 2012 and 2014. It’s unclear how much Clarke’s star has dimmed since his loss, but he has represented a big part of the seat and could be a credible contender. Other prior congressional candidates who could make a run here are ex-State Reps. Shanelle Jackson (D) and Alberta Tinsley-Talaibi (D), and Detroit city official Melvin Hollowell (D), who challenged Conyers back in the 90s and just left his city job. Detroit city clerk Janice Winfrey (D) ran respectably against Conyers in 2016, but her botched handling of the 2016 general election led to her almost losing her re-election bid last year, so she might not be a strong candidate. Another Detroit city official worth watching is Abul El-Sayed (D), who is looking like an also-ran in his current gubernatorial bid. Wayne County Commissioner and ex-State Sen. Martha Scott (D) has run for the House multiple times before, but as an octogenarian is probably unlikely to run or be a serious candidate if she does.

From the legislature, the obvious name to watch is Conyers’s nephew, State Sen. Ian Conyers (D), though his family name probably isn’t the asset it was a year ago. Another Heir Force candidate is State Sen. Coleman Young Jr. (D), who was just flattened in a Mayoral bid. State Sen. Morris Hood (D), ex-State Sen. Tupac Hunter (D), and around a dozen current or recent former State Reps. are worth watching as well. From local office, there is the entire Detroit city council, as well as Wayne County Exec Warren Evans (D), Sheriff Benny Napoleon (D), and DA Kym Worthy (D). Most of the county commission is also worth a mention.

We can’t discount the prospect of a non-black candidate from the suburbs winning a fractured primary. State Sen. David Knezek (D) followed exactly that route to win his black-majority Senate seat; county commissioner, ex-State Sen., and 2012 candidate Glenn Anderson (D) could also take that route, as could State Sen. Hoonyung Hopgood (D) and multiple State Reps.

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48 Comments

  • Left Coast Libertarian November 29, 2017 at 5:51 pm

    January? So he’ll deny he’s leaving congress until then. Thank you, Democrats.

  • dforston November 29, 2017 at 5:58 pm

    His lawyer is denying this

  • davybaby November 29, 2017 at 6:00 pm

    Drip. Drip. Drip.

    He can’t survive until 01/19, so why postpone the inevitable?

    • Left Coast Libertarian November 29, 2017 at 6:03 pm

      He can’t see that and he doesn’t want to see that. He’s been in congress for 187 years (note: fact check this). He doesn’t want to go out this way.

  • w920us November 29, 2017 at 6:06 pm

    Pervnado! Haha.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Boehnerwasright November 29, 2017 at 6:31 pm

    He will not serve till the end of his term. Just a question now if he wants to go by himself or be pushed out.

  • Midnight901 November 29, 2017 at 6:38 pm

    Jim Clyburn has claimed the allegations against Conyers are racially motivated because all of Conyers’ accusers are white women.

    https://twitter.com/DraperRobert/status/935985854304210944

    It seems day by day new caveats must be added to the “Listen and Believe” dictum.

    • cer November 29, 2017 at 6:49 pm

      Hey Democrats, do any of you ever get sick of this cringe worthy race baiting!? This is as bad as it gets.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • roguemapper November 29, 2017 at 6:53 pm

        Sure, but not remotely as much as I’m sick of the Donald’s race baiting.


        Dem NC-11

        • cer November 29, 2017 at 7:07 pm

          Dems make this almost an art form.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • HS November 29, 2017 at 8:28 pm

          What race baiting from Trump?

          What’s hilarious is Trump gives you ample opportunity to hit him on so many things. He is crude, narcissistic, and an all around bad guy. But he clearly isn’t a racist (or an anti-Semite, for that matter). But you have to believe, don’t you? All Republicans are, aren’t they?

          As Spock would say – fascinating!

        • Left Coast Libertarian November 29, 2017 at 10:13 pm

          You’re engaging in whataboutism here. By mentioning Pres. Trump you’re saying that what Conyers did wasn’t wrong because Trump does the same thing. That may not be your intention but it’s the result. There is certainly ample opportunity to discuss Trump’s actions but they’re irrelevant here. There is room to discuss John Conyers on his own. The third ranking member of your caucus has claimed that white women are liars when reporting sexual harassment. I haven’t heard Nancy Pelosi or Steny Hoyer refute that. On the contrary, Kathleen Rice is saying that Pelosi has “set women back and — quite frankly, our party back — decades.”

          We certainly don’t want to be the party of sexual harassment and Republicans face these head on when they don’t involve the President. Democrats should know how hard it is when your President does this. But the GOP isn’t the party claiming that they’re the champion of women and the other party has a war on women. James Clyburn has just declared war on white women.

          • roguemapper November 29, 2017 at 11:30 pm

            I’m not saying that what Conyers did wasn’t wrong. I think it was and that he should resign. I also think that Clyburn is wrong to say what he did. He should retire and be gone. For that matter, I think Pelosi and Hoyer should also retire and be gone, or at least step down from leadership.

            The only thing that I engaged in above is trumpsupporterscansparemetheirfauxoutrageism.


            Dem NC-11

            • Left Coast Libertarian November 30, 2017 at 12:23 am

              You’re on a board where Trump supporters can express their faux outrage. I doubt they can on DKE. I’m tired of people on the left expressing their outrage at everything Trump does. Yes, he’s pretty much everything you believe he is. But he’s President. I get that the left believes if they don’t accept that fact it won’t be true. It didn’t work that during the Bush years either.

              Trump isn’t resigning and there’s nothing he’s done that’s going to bring about impeachment. His day of reckoning comes in November 2020. If Democrats can’t beat him then they’re really incompetent. (Hint: Don’t use someone being investigated by the FBI.) I’m heartened that you agree with getting rid of the lot of them. They really are about their own power. Maybe then people with principle, like Kathleen Rice, will actually get a shot.

              • roguemapper November 30, 2017 at 1:05 am

                First, I don’t care whether the Donald’s supporters express their faux outrage to the board. What cer did was attempt to call Democrats on the board to task with his faux outrage. Setting aside the fact that this isn’t what the board is supposed to be about, I gave him a far more civil reply than his faux outrage deserved.

                Second, I’m pretty sure that I rarely, if ever, express my outrage at anything that the Donald does. In part that’s because this isn’t what the board is supposed to be about, but mostly it’s because I actually welcome the Donald to be as outrageous as possible. So, that’s an issue to take up with people on the left who actually do it.

                I’ve never called for the Donald to resign. I don’t want the Donald to be impeached. I accept the fact that he’s President. I have no idea why you’re lecturing me about things that I’m not doing and that I don’t believe. That said, I have no real problem with you lecturing the left about this, because you’re not a trumpkin.


                Dem NC-11

                • cer November 30, 2017 at 4:42 am

                  What I did was call out one of the Dem leaders in the House for pulling out the race card which by the way has now and will be used again during this rather interesting election cycle. I was obviously wondering as well if that sort of behavior bothered the Dems in here.

                  If you assume everyone who agrees with Trump on some things is automatically a Trumpkin, that would be quite inaccurate. I hope that isn’t the case.


                  Conservative first, Republican second!

                • Izengabe November 30, 2017 at 9:57 am

                  What the real outrage is how quick everyone is willing to throw their outrage out the window when the political situation suits them. That is the true tragedy of the Trump era; the hypocrisy of our ethical outrage tied to our tribal political allegiances. Now more than ever it is very hard to stay true to what you believe and the ethics you believe is right. Those that do tend to get the treatment Jeff Flake has received.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • Left Coast Libertarian November 30, 2017 at 10:08 am

                  I apologize if it appeared this was all directed at you. I said “people on the left” but I can see how you could see that since I was responding to you.

                  Not being a Trumpkin may be a very tough balancing act for me in the future. It’s wise for me to be careful what I say and write publicly, so as not to alienate any potential audience.

    • cer November 29, 2017 at 7:42 pm

      I will let this one just sit here for a while.

      http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article187166378.html


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus November 29, 2017 at 6:45 pm

    Is Hoonyoung Hopgood anybody else’s new favorite name or is it just me?


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

    • Republican Michigander November 29, 2017 at 7:59 pm

      Hopgood was born in South Korea, adopted, and raised in Taylor.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Republican Michigander November 29, 2017 at 7:58 pm

    This is going to be an interesting primary – regardless if Conyers retires (I’ll believe it when I see it, like his mentor John Dingell) or not.

    My thoughts on Pretenders vs Contenders although I am about 40 miles from the City so I may be off.
    Rep. Hansen Clarke – Pretender. He ticked off the machines.
    Shanelle Jackson (D) and Alberta Tinsley-Talaibi (D), and Detroit city official Melvin Hollowell (D) – Probably pretenders although Tinsley-Talaibi may be a darkhorse if she’s from MI-14 (I think she’s near Downtown). Hollowell would have been strong around 2000 or so. Jackson may be stronger if she goes to the Senate.
    Janice Winfrey (D) – No Chance.
    Another Detroit city official worth watching is Abul El-Sayed (D) – The district isn’t electing an Arab Muslim over a black person. No chance.
    Martha Scott (D) – She was smoked running against Kwame’s mom in MI-14. No chance.
    State Sen. Ian Conyers (D) – Possible contender, depending on racial dynamics as most of the accusers against his uncle are white.
    State Sen. Coleman Young Jr. (D) – AKA Joel Loving? Little chance. He’s lucky to get as far as he did. People in the district like his dad, not him.
    State Sen. Morris Hood (D) – I wouldn’t count out any of the Hood family depending on where they live
    ex-State Sen. Tupac Hunter (D) – Depending on where he lives.
    Outside shot with any of the Lamar Lemmons family (there are 3 of them), although I think they are MI-14
    Wayne County Exec Warren Evans (D) – Contender depending on where he lives.
    Sheriff Benny Napoleon (D) – Contender depending on where he lives.
    DA Kym Worthy (D) – Probably the strongest candidate if she’s in the district and runs. She’s pretty well respected by a lot of people.
    State Sen. David Knezek (D) – If he’s the only white person, maybe. He’d be stronger than Anderson. I don’t know how he did in Inkster or his part of Detroit in his primary. He’ll probably clean up the suburban white vote against anyone but Worthy if he’s the only white candidate running.
    Glenn Anderson (D) – He was smoked when he challenged Conyers. Westland isn’t going to carry the day.
    could also take that route, as could State Sen. Hoonyung Hopgood (D) and multiple State Reps.
    Hoon-Yung Hopgood – Not running. He’s from Taylor outside the district. Taylor is the main part of his district and he also grew up there.
    I would say keep and eye on Jewell Jones out of Inkster, but I believe he’s 22 or 23 and would be too young to win a congressional seat. He’d be a darkhorse.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • shamlet November 29, 2017 at 8:29 pm

      Don’t discount the machines backing someone who isn’t obvious… Also I feel like residency is not a big issue as long as you’re within the lines of Detroit. This seat cuts such a weird swath through the city that nobody’s more than a couple miles outside the district.

      Jewell Jones is too young to run (22!)


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Republican Michigander November 29, 2017 at 9:14 pm

        The thing with Detroit is that it is split 3 ways by geography. There’s Southwest, Northwest, and East Side. This is historically the “West Side” district. I can see East Siders having a lot of problems on the West Side as long as someone from that side runs. Conyers actually lived in MI-14 (Palmer Park – that small stretch of NW Detroit in MI-14), but he’s from the west side and he ran where his roots were. I never considered him a carpetbagger.

        Detroit is about 1/2 of the district vote in the general election (vs 36% in MI-14). I’m not sure about the primary, although it’s the most D area so I expect it to be a majority or near majority of total vote.

        Another name to watch, especially if one white person runs. Former State Rep Phil Cavanagh (yes, the former mayor of Detroit family) of Redford. He represented a 50%+ black district including Redford and part of Detroit.

        My gut says Ian Conyers, one of the Hoods, one fairly big name white person, and one lesser known who didn’t make a lot of waves, maybe Tupac Hunter with Kym Worthy has the big wildcard. Worthy would be an “anti-machine” candidate.

        Full disclosure – I’m NOT a Detroit expert and all of my family there is gone. I have some family in the district, but not in the city.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Conservative First November 29, 2017 at 9:26 pm

      Knezek lost every precinct in Detroit (badly) and won 4/11 precincts in Inkster in the 2014 primary. Of course, he may have built up more support since then.
      http://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/14_Wayne_Primary_House_Senate_and_Judicial_494393_7.pdf

  • Izengabe November 29, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    Monica Conyers is out of prison. Maybe she wants to mount a comeback bid! Being the aggravated wife of a sexual predator did wonders for Hillary Clinton’s career!


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Republican Michigander November 29, 2017 at 8:24 pm

      LOL. Monica is worse than John.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA November 29, 2017 at 9:04 pm

      She would give Maxine Waters a run for crazy!


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • RRR November 29, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    Ian Conyers is an enthusiastic hunter. RM should probably be rooting for him.


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Republican Michigander November 30, 2017 at 11:08 am

      Depends if he’s a Fudd (gun grabbing “hunter”) or not. Personally, I don’t have high expectations for that seat. Westland D’s tend to be more moderate. Once in awhile, a city democrat is pro-life. For statewide ambition reasons, I’d rather not have it be a white person elected, unless it’s someone substantially better on issues (Richard LeBlanc would be substantially better)


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • Red Oaks December 1, 2017 at 9:11 pm

        “For statewide ambition reasons, I’d rather not have it be a white person elected”. As a white guy who lived and voted in a very black area (Southfield) for nearly a decade I agree completely with that statement although mostly for a different reason – white Democrats elected in black areas tend to be down the line liberal/progressive like TN Congressman Steve Cohen or former Southfield City Councilman/current State Rep Jeremy Moss. Black Democrats will sometimes work with Republicans on issues like school choice (especially former state reps Harvey Santana and Shanelle Jackson), auto insurance reforms (the only 4 Democrats to vote with the MI GOP on recent reforms were black) and redistricting (for reasons that should be obvious to any RRH reader).


        MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • RRR November 29, 2017 at 10:18 pm

    I’ve spent perhaps a cumulative year of my life in Metro Detroit. My grandfather and his brother owned (separate) restaurants in the city; Carl Levin was a frequent customer. The Senator loved getting the chance to rave to me about how much he loved the family recipe for split pea soup. My mom grew up on the East Side before her parents moved out to Grosse Pointe post-’67. While I’m no Motor City expert, I know quite a bit about the area. I love bringing East Coast friends to Metro Detroit and showing them every corner of both the city and its suburbs (if you can still call outlying areas that have so consciously removed themselves economically and culturally “suburbs” of a city). Frankly, it’s a really hard place for outsiders to understand, but it’s a rewarding place for a non-native to visit and try to comprehend. And, if there’s anything that can tug at my heartstrings, it’s Detroit’s problems.

    One thing to consider is how casually racialized absolutely *everything* is there. I’ve heard dyed-in-the-wool liberal suburban Detroit Democrats talk nonchalantly about race in ways that would alarm coastal liberals. One spoke of how her family left Rosedale Park (a still-stable West Side neighborhood) because it “turned too fast.”

    Black voters in the district will absolutely bloc vote at the Detroit machine’s order if there’s a sense a white candidate might win the primary. And, based on wholesale white abandonment of the city for decades, I don’t blame them. It’ll just be a shame that the next Congressman won’t be of Hansen Clarke’s quality, personally or intellectually.


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • davybaby November 30, 2017 at 1:31 am

      All I know about Detroit is that it’s worth it to go across the river for the “Windsor Ballet.”

      • RRR November 30, 2017 at 7:25 am

        HAH.

        My uncle has offered to take me many a time…


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

        • Son_of_the_South December 5, 2017 at 3:02 pm

          I bet he has.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Republican Michigander November 30, 2017 at 12:05 pm

        LOL. I didn’t know the “Windsor Ballet” was that well known even on the east coast.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Republican Michigander November 30, 2017 at 12:05 pm

      The east side is like another state. 🙂 Woodward was/is the big dividing line. There was no reason to cross Woodward outside of downtown. I think that mentality these days extended to Dequindre in the suburbs.

      My mom grew up near Old Redford. Some of my dad’s family lived in Parkland (just west of and often confused with Warrendale) once they worked for the City and while the residency clause is in effect. My dad lived in both the city (west side) and suburbs (Redford, Livonia, Southfield). The two turning points for my mom were when my dad’s car was stolen from her driveway, and poor schools. The commute from Brighton to Wixom was also about the same as the commute from Detroit, maybe quicker. I grew up in “the country” before the terms “exurbs” were even thought about. Wixom was considered the Detroit area’s boundary on the west back then up through the 90’s.

      I’ve heard mixed things about Hansen Clarke, but he never was a machine guy. I know he has no chance, because Peters had way too many black votes to win that primary….while Clarke was a quasi incumbent. Clarke won the Wayne County portion (50%) with low turnout (not sure how much was Detroit or how much was Grosse Pointe), but Peters had 1/3, and that wouldn’t happen without machine blessing.

      “””One thing to consider is how casually racialized absolutely *everything* is there. I’ve heard dyed-in-the-wool liberal suburban Detroit Democrats talk nonchalantly about race in ways that would alarm coastal liberals. One spoke of how her family left Rosedale Park (a still-stable West Side neighborhood) because it “turned too fast.” “”””

      I believe it. I think the racial issues are changing more and more since Mayor Coleman A Young’s retirement and to a lesser extent Duggan’s (part of McNamara’s machine, as was Kwame) election, but they still come out from time to time. I think there’s broad recognition overall that status quo is failure. Beyond that, it’s wait and see. I don’t see quite the same bitterness that I used to see against the city. Historically, both races blame the other for f’ing up the city. In some ways, they are both right. Personally, I blame the post 1960 D’s more than anything else. The old regionalism stereotype (still is) is that the project benefits downtown Detroit (not all of the city). Oakland County runs the project their way because in their mind, only they know how to do it. Macomb just pays for the project and is told to shut up.

      What’s interesting from my standpoint is I hear all the stuff from the hundreds of ex-Detroiters and ex-Farmington Hills/ex-Redford/ex-Livonia folks out this way (almost never ex-Macomb however) but I don’t have the personal attachment and personal grudge to the neighborhoods that changed – be it black to white or be it different whites moving there. My attachment is to the Brighton area instead.

      I hope Detroit gets its act together. Will it? Possibly. It will start actually coming back outside of downtown however it is beneficial for people to raise their families there. Jobs, schools, and costs are the big issues. Jobs are starting to slowly come back although there’s still a lot of work to do. Schools have been a problem since at least the 60’s. Grandma didn’t even want my mom going to public schools way back then. Cost of living is a big problem. It costs more to live in Detroit than the Grosse Pointes. Property taxes are .62 mills. There’s a city income tax. There’s also sky high insurance costs. If I lived in Detroit, I’d be driving without insurance or using another family member’s address for residency. It’s a $5000 savings.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA December 5, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    Two Conyers running seems like a great recipe for a white guy to win the primary.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Son_of_the_South December 5, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      Or maybe an Asian woman? State Rep. Stephanie Chang (D), who represents Downtown Detroit, is already running for state senate. Perhaps she’d want to switch races, as the district she’s currently running in doesn’t really have ant of her state rep district, if memory serves.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Tekzilla December 5, 2017 at 5:25 pm

      Really hoping Hansen Clarke runs.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Ryan_in_SEPA December 5, 2017 at 5:32 pm

        You got to wonder if both VRA districts failing to elect minorities twice in a decade is enough justification to shed one of them and clean the map substantially. Otherwise you will need to start creating precincts that are just the median of I-75 to Flint.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Greyhound December 5, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          To be fair, Peters was clearly the choice of a majority of Black Detroiters anyway. Its like arguing that TN-9 has to reach into the black party of Nashville because it keeps electing a White Guy in its current configuration. And isn’t Clarke half-black?


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • Red Oaks December 5, 2017 at 6:45 pm

            Actually Peters only won 47% of the overall vote in the 2012 primary against Clarke and current 14th district incumbent Brenda Lawrence. Hansen Clarke won the Wayne County portion of the district 51% – 33% over Peters. The key to Peters victory was Oakland County where he got over 61% of the vote. I don’t have the precise racial breakdown but Peters really ran up Stalin like margins in white areas like West Bloomfield and Farmington Hills while falling well short of a majority in mostly black Southfield.

            Yes, Clarke is half-black.

            I do think Michigan’s loss of congressional seats over the decades plus the more disbursed Metro Detroit black population is a good enough reason to go with only one majority black seat. The City of Detroit itself along with many other surrounding municipalities (the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, Highland Park, and Hamtramck) won’t even have enough people in 2020 to fill one district.


            MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

        • Jon December 5, 2017 at 7:37 pm

          If it goes to a non-AA because in the D primary the AA vote was split between 2 AAs; then the election actually won’t count for stat purposes as the AA community wasn’t a cohesive block.

          What they are primarily looking for in determining if VRA districts are needed are open seats in which nearly all the vote in the primary goes to two candidates; one a minority group and the other not. This includes down stream districts (e.g. what happens in the state house & senate districts that are in whole or in part included within the congressional districts.)

          In any case, I can’t see two CDs being required following the 2020 census; in large part because even if there’s evidence that VRA seats in the area are needed at all, it’s going to be impossible to make two CDs that both meet the minimum AA requirement (50.0% [C]VAP) plus “relatively compact”).
          It might well be the case that there’s no sufficient block voting of whites to defeat AAs in the D primary when the AA vote isn’t split though; which would allow both districts to be drawn however the legislature wants instead of having to ensure that one of them is at least at 50.0% (C)VAP level at the cost of lowering the AA percentage of the other district.


          45, M, MO-02

      • Izengabe December 5, 2017 at 11:46 pm

        Would that be the same Hansen Clarke who was Conyers chief of staff and probably had 1st hand knowledge of Conyers sexually harassment?


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • StatenIslandTest December 5, 2017 at 6:33 pm

    Is there any chance whoever wins here is another Lacy Clay (D, R for redistricting)


    32, Jersey City

    • Red Oaks December 5, 2017 at 6:52 pm

      I’m not sure that the next specific incumbent matters that much in influencing redistricting. What will determine who controls the 2021 redrawing will be:
      1. the results of the 2018 gubernatorial race
      2. the potential redistricting ballot initiative in 2018

      I expect the GOP to have majorities in both houses of the legislature at that point.


      MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

    • Jon December 5, 2017 at 7:46 pm

      I’m not sure how much Lacy Clay actually set the new boundary of his district. I think rather than him proposing the new boundary the committees simply ran the district by him and asked if he was ok with it.
      In any case, there was a strong desire by those in West County that were in either #1 or #3 to no longer be part of any district that included St Louis City; with those part that weren’t in either of those districts before to not be added to such a district. Once they went with the natural way of reducing such a problem is to unify St Louis City into a single district and also went with it’s a very good idea to include (most of) North County in such a district for political reasons, the rest of the district practically drew itself.

      Where they were clever was actually out in KC. (Cutting the NE corner of Jackson county out of the district to remove a large source of primary opponents to the Democrat congressman in #5)


      45, M, MO-02

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