Political Roundup for December 6th, 2017

Well, the President of the United States and the RNC have both officially endorsed a sexual predator for a US Senate seat. Political participation these days feels like a game of Russian Roulette in which every chamber of the revolver is loaded.

Last Night, Keisha Lance-Bottoms (D) won the Atlanta Mayor’s race by 1% (759 votes), Brad Hart (R) held Cedar Rapids Mayor for the GOP, and Robb Pitts (D) was elected Fulton County, GA Executive. Republicans picked up a State Senate seat in MA-SD-Worcester & Middlesex with Dean Tran (R), Wendy Carillo (D) took CA-LD-51, and the Dems easily held PA-LD-133. Margaret Good (D) won the nomination in FL-LD-72. Georgia Democrats elected in D-on-D runoffs Jen Jordan (D) in SD-6, Nikema Williams (D) in SD-39, Kim Schofield (D) in LD-60, and Bee Nguyen (D) in LD-89.

President/the Bigger Picture

The Great Sort (or not?): The Economist analyzes recent data regarding American political attitudes from Pew Research. It finds that, while the partisan gap regarding the role of government has widened, Americans broadly agree at an unprecedented level on two electorally influential notions: 1) homosexuality should be accepted, and 2) immigration is a positive force. The magazine also claims that, despite many theses to the contrary, Americans have not been moving to certain areas to be around fellow members of their political party.

Blame Canada (or at least Eastern Europe): ICYMI, President Trump re-tweeted anti-Muslim videos last week (surprise!). Fittingly, ABC‘s Nightline was inspired to take a look at the alarming popularity of white nationalism among the European youth (particularly within the former USSR). With Generation Y being split between the alt-right and Corbynism, our children and grandchildren are all screwed.

The Donald and the GOP: Totally loyal lifelong conservative Republican Donald Trump will definitely be loyal to the GOP. He won’t try destroying it, even if it doesn’t do whatever he wants, whenever he wants.

The President’s Taxes (no, not like that): Lyin’ Quinnipiac finds that 53% of Americans disapprove of the GOP’s efforts to update the tax code. Just 29% support them. For context, the pollster notes that those numbers are more dreadful than both Obamacare and Clinton’s tax hikes upon their first times being polled.

Congress

AL-Sen: The RNC has decided to go on a second date with God’s Gift to the World Roy Moore (R-His Selective Conceptions of Morality) after daddy lowered his shotgun barrel.

More AL-Sen: Clearly not attracted the idea of having a child predator in the Senate, Republican Senator Jeff Flake (R-Mesa) did the only thing he could do when Steve Bannon (“R”-his Alt Reich) decided to “gift” a trojan horse to the party: he donated to Democrat Doug Jones (D-Birmingham).

#LockHimUp: Doug Jones told a crowd at a Mobile rally that False Prophet Roy Moore (R-Gadsden Mall) belongs in jail, not the US Senate.

MI-13: US Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) is retiring to spend more time creeping on nurses at the old folks home. Accordingly, his Detroit West Side/Downriver/Western Wayne County seat is open for the first time since the court-ordered 1964 redistricting.

TX-05/TX HD-04: State Rep Lance Gooden (R-Terrell) has thrown his ten-gallon hat into the ring in the race to replace outgoing Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas).

The States

CA-Gov: Looking to shore up the moonbat vote, bold progressive State Treasurer John Chiang (D-Los Angeles) is attacking Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-San Francisco). Why? Obviously because Newt Gingrich praised his his 2013 book, Citizenville, for advocating the improvement of government through technology. Of course, Chiang neglected that several prominent Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, also praised Newsom’s book.

CT-Gov: Connecticut Democrats will need to find a new governor next year; incumbent Dannel Malloy (D-Stamford) has realized that the only election he would win these days is a Bob Saget look-alike contest. Accordingly, Nutmeg State Democrats held a symposium at which bold progressives were able to quiz prospective candidates. What purpose did the gathering serve? Attendees used it to discern which contender is the most #woke on pressing issues: the #fightfor15 and hosing the rich.

IL-Gov: Courtesy of pro-life warrior and Madigan stooge Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton), Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (R-Winnetka) is currently locked in a war on two fronts: his social right and his fiscal left. Rauner did not mince words in blasting his primary opponent as a “fringe candidate who betrayed our party.”

The F—ing Golden Governor: Ostensibly to settle questions about campaign finance law, several prominent Democrats in Illinois’ congressional delegation have asked SCOTUS to look into the sentence of disgraced ex-governor Rod Blagojevich (D-Federal Prison).

Harry Lewis and the News: ICYMI, PA State Rep. Harry Lewis (R) will retire from his Coatesville-based, Clinton +24 State House seat at the end of his term. The seat moves to Safe D.

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196 Comments

  • segmentation_fault December 6, 2017 at 7:19 am

    New Orleans, Charlotte, Atlanta, Washington, Baltimore… good time to be a liberal black woman running for mayor I guess (I say liberal because Ivy Taylor)

    Anyone know why New Orleans has such a long lame duck session?


    En Marche!

    • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 11:14 am

      NOLA just moved up its mayoral election from the spring of the 4n+2 year to the fall of the 4n+1 year, so I guess the terms haven’t adjusted to compensate.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 12:45 pm

        Los Angeles moved its mayoral election recently to match with general elections and now Garcetti has like a ludicrously long term.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM December 6, 2017 at 7:46 am

    RRR is woke!


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 7:51 am

    Imagine if this had happened three months earlier… http://wjla.com/news/local/outrage-growing-from-drivers-lawmakers-as-i-66-tolls-continue-to-rise


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • GOPTarHeel December 6, 2017 at 8:36 am

      (Which is probably why they waited)


      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 9:12 am

        You got to wonder if raising tolls or hatred of the Donald would have won the day. I suspect the latter still matters more for the metro DC crowd.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 10:28 am

          There’s literally 0% chance that this would have tipped the Guv race. Swayed a HoD race or maybe, but even then, meh.

          • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 1:02 pm

            It probably would have tipped a couple HoD seats in the Manassas/Loudon County areas, which are full of people that use 66 and were decided by narrow margins.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 1:28 pm

              Towards Dems or away? Roem seemed to benefit from styling at least part of the 2017 campaign on roads (though i think ti was I-28) but still seems like running against the incumbents based on this could have been effective too.

    • Republican Michigander December 6, 2017 at 10:59 am

      Bwahahahahahaha.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Mayor Perk December 6, 2017 at 8:58 am

    KS-Gov: Businessman / ’14 Senate candidate Greg Orman (I/D) forms exploratory committee for potential gubernatorial run.

    http://cjonline.com/news/state-government/2016-elections/2017-12-05/independent-greg-orman-officially-sets-motion


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • RogueBeaver December 6, 2017 at 9:16 am

    Another Franken accuser, this one alleging he tried to forcibly kiss her in 2006. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/06/al-franken-accusation-sexual-harassment-2006-281049


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • MosheM December 6, 2017 at 9:26 am

      drip drip drip


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • Mayor Perk December 6, 2017 at 9:36 am

      Yeah, Schumer can’t use a Roy Moore victory to his maximum advantage with Franken stories coming out regularly.


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • MosheM December 6, 2017 at 10:30 am

        Might he have his own skeletons?


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • HS December 6, 2017 at 11:22 am

          Schumer is abusive to his staff, but I have never heard that it is sexual abuse. He is just a jerk.

    • Indy1975a December 6, 2017 at 12:42 pm

      ““He was between me and the door and he was coming at me to kiss me. It was very quick and I think my brain had to work really hard to be like ‘Wait, what is happening?’ But I knew whatever was happening was not right and I ducked,” the aide said in an interview. “I was really startled by it and I just sort of booked it towards the door and he said, ‘It’s my right as an entertainer.’”

      “I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. Grab ’em by the butt. And when you’re an entertainer, they let you do it. You can do anything.” -Al Franken


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 12:45 pm

        Yeah, it looks like like we’re starting to see a consistent pattern.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 9:35 am

    Conyers hit on one of his interns… and then brought up the topic of Chandra Levy when she demurred. https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/938415580092272641


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 10:22 am

    Dayton has scheduled two MN legislative specials for Feb. 12 – a Monday (!). Weird. http://www.postbulletin.com/news/state/around-the-state-dayton-uses-his-recovery-to-tout-cancer/article_dd81fbc0-3616-52a7-be22-cc9dd0a98a81.html


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 10:40 am

      The date is a bit odd. No idea why, but it is what it is. The Senate district is the big price, obviously. Cornish’s district isn’t likely to be competitive.

      • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 10:43 am

        Feb 13 is Mardi Gras so maybe he has party plans.

      • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 10:43 am

        As weird as it is, both of the resignations stemmed from the incumbents sexually harassing the same woman, a freshman Representative Erin Maye Quade. Maye Quade is married, and a lesbian. She also won her seat after Tara Mack retired after literally getting caught with her pants down with another State Rep (both married). Why these men decided to do what they did to her is beyond me.

  • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 10:36 am

    Everybody wants their tax loophole…rolls eyes. My favorite quote:

    When asked what the effective tax rate of Murray Energy is, Murray replied, “We don’t pay a tax rate right now because we have a lot of net loss carry-forwards. We have a lot of debt.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/murray-energy-ceo-says-gop-tax-policy-will-cost-him-60-million-a-year.html

    • andrew_1918 December 6, 2017 at 11:16 am

      Literally yesterday: Chief Senate Tax Writers (Hatch, Brady, McCarthy, Perdue, Portman) Prefer AMT Repeal: Tax Debate Update
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/brady-says-ending-corporate-amt-is-priority-tax-debate-update

    • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 11:47 am

      #Welfareforwhitepeople


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 11:52 am

        Which isn’t heroically awful…humans are selfish. I was more entertained by the “we don’;t pay taxes but god help us if some day we do” complaining goofball. I also find it kind of odd there wasn’t a coal loophole slipped in like apparently there was for auto dealers.

        I think exempting all coal companies from all taxes would still barely slow down the downfall of coal but whatever…

        • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 12:16 pm

          Yeah, if you want a concise explanation as to why Capitalism has become so unpopular lately, its that we’ve reached the point as a society where CEOs feel perfectly comfortable going on talk shows to complain that proposed legislation will prevent them from using accounting loopholes to avoid paying a cent in taxes.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 12:48 pm

            Ehh I’d agree but I think it’s more CEO’s being unpopular than capitalism. People still love the idea of the American dream (from building a huge company tow inning the lottery and everything in between) but sheesh this gentleman is a bad face for capitalism. And kind of a whiner…

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 12:53 pm

              Overall, people still do, but I suspect that has also dropped. “Entrepreneurialism” in the United States has crashed in the last few decades. America used to be #1 in small business formation and now it’s significantly fallen behind even most of Western Europe and Japan/Korea/Taiwan. Most “small businesses” in the US now are pretty much sham jobs created by unemployed people so they don’t have a “resume gap” (a crippling thing in today’s job market).

              It’s probably even worse among native-born Americans. The image of America means that legal immigrants (people who fly into America, specifically choosing it over other options) probably self-select for entrepreneurialism. Which is how you get 1/3rd of all US motels owned by this specific caste from Gujarat, India.

              A lot of political changes in the US make a lot more sense when you realize that on every aspect of socioeconomics, America has become far less exceptional and now looks far more like its sister societies in Latin America and Western Europe.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • TexasR December 6, 2017 at 12:48 pm

            Good thing that this bill totally fixes that by not being massively beneficial to the Trump Organization!


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

    • Indy1975a December 6, 2017 at 12:30 pm

      Good. It’s time that he start paying some taxes. It is fair to ask for lower taxes across the board and a friendly business climate with a smaller regulatory burden. But there is no need to hold onto crappy loopholes and bogus regulations intended to favor certain industries.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 12:45 pm

        I agree.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 1:12 pm

          Except for he’s not paying taxes nor is he going to. Let’s face it, he’s actually complaining that he’s not currently aware of a loophole that will help him when his loss carry-forwards run out…and of course there will be a loophole somewhere. He just doesn’t want to pay some accountants/consultants $500k to find the new loophole when he had a perfectly good loophole already in place.

  • RogueBeaver December 6, 2017 at 11:40 am

    Hirono, McCaskill, Hassan, Gillibrand call for Franken to resign. Assuming Schumer will get there soon.


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • andrew_1918 December 6, 2017 at 11:44 am

      It’s all about Alabama/Moore. Franken will not resign.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 11:48 am

        Someone really needs to propose two for the price of one expulsion.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 12:20 pm

          Would there be anything stopping Moore from running again in the special election to succeed his 1-minute tenure? Because at this point we can’t discount the possibility that he just wins again.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 12:22 pm

            No. But you can just do the same thing over again, Victor Berger-style. And the appointee gets a year in the meantime.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Indy1975a December 6, 2017 at 12:33 pm

          Both need to go ASAP, but as much as I dislike Moore at this point, Franken is far worse overall. Even before any of these allegations came out, he was a far greater stain to the Senate and humanity than Roy Moore will ever be.


          Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

          • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 12:50 pm

            No Franken is not worse. Just no.

            • Indy1975a December 6, 2017 at 1:36 pm

              Yes Franken is worse. Just yes.
              I wouldn’t be surprised if Franken has cheated on his wife as well.


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

              • andyroo312 December 6, 2017 at 1:39 pm

                Um, unlike Predator Moore, Franken’s victims weren’t children FYI.


                MA-7

                • Indy1975a December 6, 2017 at 1:45 pm

                  I’m talking about Franken’s character as a whole vs Moore’s character as a whole. Not just these recent allegations. Al Franken is just a complete scumbag in every aspect of his life. He has contributed nothing positive in his entire life, and has been and is a cancer to society.
                  He’s an absolute embarrassment to the US Senate and it makes the voters of Minnesota look really bad to have reelected this creature.


                  Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

                  • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 1:47 pm

                    That’s not what we’re talking about and you know it.

                  • andyroo312 December 6, 2017 at 2:18 pm

                    Moore has never spent a second of his life in the mainstream of society. He is truly an abomination in every sense of the word. As for Franken, sure, he’s a left-winger, and apparently a yucky left-winger at that…but don’t see how he’s a “scumbag” beyond that.


                    MA-7

                • cer December 6, 2017 at 1:57 pm

                  Stop with the spin…. they are both slime balls until proven otherwise.


                  Conservative first, Republican second!

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 2:01 pm

                    There is a certain threshold of being a scumbag that disqualifies you from office. Both have crossed it, but more is 5 miles across it while Franken is only a couple miles across it.


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

              • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 1:46 pm

                What exactly does cheating on his wife have to with anything in the Senate? It’s not illegal. Roy Moore has literally been removed from courts twice for illegal actions and these new Moore allegations are far worse than anything Franken has been alleged of doing.

                So no, Moore is worse. And it’s not even close. He’s done more illegal acts, engaged in far more nefarious private sexual activities and so forth. You don’t like Franken that’s fine but you just make up stuff to support your conjectures. Moore really should be un-qualified for his defiance of Federal and SCOTUS rulings.

                And all of this doesn’t even touch on his shady dealings running a “non-profit” to personally enrich himself and his family.

                • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 2:02 pm

                  Moore has been removed from the bench in Alabama twice!


                  31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • Boehnerwasright December 6, 2017 at 12:59 pm

            You can’t compare credible accusations of Moore sexual harassing a 14-year! old and dating 16-18 years old with Franken groping adult woman. And even looking at both men overall, hard to see how crude behaviour by Franken is more of a problem then what Moore has said.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 12:36 pm

          I don’t why people think a Moore expulsion is plausible. Even Susan Collins came out and said it’s not happening. FFS, the RNC is actually throwing money at him right now.

          The deal given to Moore is clearly that he gets absolved if he wins and banished to damnatio memoriae if he loses.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 1:56 pm

            Except if he loses he’ll run again for the general…and he’ll win the primary then too. But I agree with everything else you said.

            • ike56 December 6, 2017 at 2:32 pm

              I don’t know that he would win another primary unless it was either a) a clown car debacle, or b) against a tainted opponent. As it is, he is relying on Republicans holding their noses the get him across the finish line.


              38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 2:35 pm

                He’d lose that primary, not because of the allegations, but for being tainted with defeat against a Democrat in Alabama.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:42 pm

                I can’t imagine an AL-Sen primary for the GOP with only 2 candidates. So many Republicans in the state and Senate races only come every 6 years (normally). To get into a clown car race where 35-40% could win the primary and a free ride to the Senate (Jones wouldn’t likely win against any non-scandal Republican) I just can’t imagine how 1-on-1 would ever be close to reality.

                So I tend to agree, Moore couldn’t get 50% in a 1-on-1 primary in the future but I don’t think he’ll need to.

                • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 2:44 pm

                  err…Alabama has runoffs.


                  R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                  • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:46 pm

                    Yeah forgot about that. Y’all are right, Moore probably wouldn’t make it through 1-on-1. It seems like 30 years ago the Brooks-Moore runoff happened…lol

                  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 2:48 pm

                    Which was why Team Strange went after Mo Brooks so hard!

                    That being said, if Moore loses this, I think Mo Brooks has a smooth path to this seat in 2020. He’s engendered a lot of good will with the Moore people by being such a forceful booster – people who even if they like Moore, might not want Moore as their flag-bearer if he lost.


                    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • HS December 6, 2017 at 6:00 pm

                      Maybe. But McConnell the dolt still hates Brooks. And McConnell is the guy who gambled that Strange could destroy Brooks in the first round and still hold on to beat Moore in the runoff. Even though Moore had shown an ability to win statewide before. As we all know, McConnell chose poorly, and he could do it again.

          • CTIronman December 6, 2017 at 2:15 pm

            Chuck Schumer will find ways to keep trying to force MMC to expel RM so that D’s can go into 18 making a sleazy RW zealot the “face of the franchise” for the Senate GOP

            • ike56 December 6, 2017 at 2:39 pm

              And in such a theoretical, MMc easily calls Schumer’s bluff and holds a vote on expulsion; if none of the Dems go along, he could paint them as cheap opportunists.


              38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

              • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:51 pm

                The groundswell against Franken makes it very likely they’d expel Moore. Certainly you’d get 17 Dems (+50 Republicans equals expulsion) so then it’d be to see how many Republicans stand by Moore and how many 2018 candidates would also go on the record standing by Moore. There really isn’t much negative for Dems in this scenario so I don’t know why you think Dems wouldn’t vote to expel.

                However there’s really no need for this. If Moore is seated then the GOP is on the record as being for Moore. The whole “leave it to Alabama” line will be how they have to approach 2018. Personally I don’t think Moore has large impact on 2018 as I think the GOP picks up a few net Senate seats anyways. Moore might help Tester but I don’t think it can help McCaskill or Donnelly where the tides are just going to be strong against them.

      • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 11:50 am

        No it’s about 2018. The Franken news has partially inoculated Moore which is why waiting this long is such political goofiness. Dems standing behind Franken emboldened the GOP to go from treating him like a pariah, not supporting him, threatening to not seat him to now being endorsed heavily, RNC back in the game and his seating (upon election) not even in question.

        I guess Klobuchar is hedging still but god knows why.

        • Republican Michigander December 6, 2017 at 11:56 am

          “””I guess Klobuchar is hedging still but god knows why.”””

          She has to work with Stuart Smalley and his office. I give her a 1/2 pass because of homer issues.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

          • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 12:04 pm

            Yes but she has to, at this point, be fuming that he’s put her in this unpleasant political situation. Now I hardly think she has any chance at anything higher (POTUS/VPOTUS) but she could easily be Senate Majority/Minority leader (her, Merkely and Gillibrand seem the only likely successors in my opinion) and yet she’s going to be linked to this forever.

            At some point you’d think she simply would look out for herself, given Franken isn’t all that Minnesotan I can imagine they have that much of a history. Or maybe she’s just one of the last few/true loyal people in politics.

  • GorrestFump December 6, 2017 at 11:53 am

    So who will Dayton pick Lori Swanson or Tina Smith?

    • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      My money is on Swanson or Sieben.

  • MosheM December 6, 2017 at 12:05 pm

    Sen. @PattyMurray calls for Franken to resign. That’s #5.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Boehnerwasright December 6, 2017 at 12:12 pm

      We are up to 8 senators now with Casey being the first male senator to call for Franken to resign. Just a matter of time now until Franken resigns.

      Who on the GOP side can run against Franken’s replacement in 2018?

      • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 12:13 pm

        As always, Erik Paulsen is at the top of the list.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 12:17 pm

          Do we have anyone else who could hold down his house seat if he does? The GOP doesn’t have a great track record with Clinton seats in the Midwest right now.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 12:20 pm

            Stanek is probably plan A. Jeff Johnson probably wouldn’t be terrible either.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • buckeyes95 December 6, 2017 at 12:24 pm

          I really want Paulsen to stay put, especially if Dayton appoints someone like Swanson. If Paulsen runs for Senate he probably won’t win, and we’d most likely lose his house seat too.


          R in OH-12

          • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 12:30 pm

            I think Pawlenty is probably our best option for the Senate seat for that reason.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • Boehnerwasright December 6, 2017 at 12:43 pm

              I fear Pawlenty could have a real Strickland problem. He was govenor during the financal crisis and the budget during that time was a real mess. He also spent the last 5 years working as a lobbyist.

          • RRR December 6, 2017 at 12:50 pm

            We’re probably going to lose his House seat regardless. MN-03 is tailor-made for realignment in a Trumpian world.


            PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
            More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

            • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 12:54 pm

              …until Minnesota loses a district, magically adding hardcore Republican territory (while subtracting some Democratic territory) and making the seat winnable again.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • RRR December 6, 2017 at 12:57 pm

                …those ~100k voters probably won’t matter, seeing as HRC won Paulsen’s district by 12% after Romney and Obama virtually tied there.


                PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
                More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

                • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 1:17 pm

                  First of all, she won it by 9.4%, not 12%, 50.8-41.4. Second of all, the most likely 100k to be added is in some combination of northern Anoka County, Wright County, or Sherburne County. The last two are dark red, and northern Anoka moved rightward in 2016. Even though MN-05 has been growing well, it will need to grab some people from MN-03. How many is unknown, but I doubt it’s below 30k, and all of the territory it could grab is very blue. Clinton’s margin was about 32k. Wright County alone had a 23k margin for the Donald. Anoka County had an 18k margin, and the part that might be taken into MN-03 would likely have an even higher margin. Sherburne had an 18k margin as well. Even if the district adds fewer than 100k (likely, given it’s growth), what is does add plus what it will lose will be more than enough to get it back into swingy territory.


                  24, R, TN-09
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                  • TexasR December 6, 2017 at 1:30 pm

                    While I have no doubt that a Republican trifecta would make the changes you’re describing, why would a Dem trifecta even consider drawing such a district?


                    Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                    Be careful what you wish for

                    • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 1:40 pm

                      Well, they wouldn’t, but they won’t be drawing it. The judges will draw it, as they always do in MN. I think it’s only a small possibility that Wright or Sherburne get added, but there is a very, very good chance that northern Anoka gets added. MN-06 is likely going away, and Goldy has said many times that the judges will almost certainly put Ramsey and Washington Counties together.If you do that, there’s really only one clean way to draw the rest of the metro. You throw the rest of Edina into MN-05, MN-06’s current share of Anoka into MN-03, and add Bloomington to MN-02 (while pulling MN-02 out of the rural areas). That puts MN-03 at about an R+2.5 two-election PVI, and a razor-thin Clinton win. Doing pretty much anything else in a non-partisan map requires putting northern Anoka in MN-08 or MN-04 (and we’re pretty sure the latter isn’t going to happen).


                      24, R, TN-09
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 2:28 pm

                  Thing is, its actually kind of hard to keep something close to the current MN-3 seat if MN drops to 7 districts. The two twin city seats and the 3 Outstate seats are pretty locked in by Geography and obvious county lines, which leaves 2 districts to broadly take the Northern and Southern MSP suburbs, and they’d probably each have to take about half of the current MN-3 to balance population.


                  R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

                  • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 3:03 pm

                    I don’t think either party wants to split Hennepin County into 3 giant chunks like that. It all depends on who the map makers are. Dems can easily get MN-3 to D+5 or better without splitting Minneapolis, while Republicans could make keep it at R+2 or so. Courts probably leave it mostly alone. Almost all of the states growth is in Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, with limited growth in Paulsen’s district, downticks in population in MN-2 and MN-6 overall, with massive hemorrhaging in 1, 7 and 8. Basically everything outside of the 7 county metro Area, possibly including Wright County will be in N outstate district. How those look is also up to show draws the maps, but there won’t be any St. Clouds or Northfields in metro districts in a 7 seat configuration. Republicans.would drawn Minneapolis’s district and St. Paul’s district to suck in as many heavily D suburbs as possible, and try and dilute the rest with the far flung exurbs (or what’s left of them) and try and secure a 2-2 metro split with South and North suburban/exurban districts having R PVIs. Democrats if given the chance wouldn’t do that
                    They’d give Hennepin County less Minneapolis it’s own district, which Paulsen probably couldn’t even win, then give Ellison most of Anoka County (he currently only has the blue southern tip), and a gigantic C-shaped or L-shaped R vote sink running through Carver/Scott Counties, the red parts of Dakota, etc. Republicans want a North South split, and Dems want a suburban/exurban split. I think the GOP realizes at this point that their proposed Minneapolis/St. Paul district is insanely stupid and would be an Arkansas level dummymander.

                    • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 3:17 pm

                      I’m assuming that there will be split control again and the judges would draw the lines. What do you think they would do?


                      24, R, TN-09
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 3:39 pm

                      @SOTS
                      When given the chance, judges change as little as possible. With the huge shifts in population from urban to rural, with suburbs flat, the outstate districts expand rather significantly. Thanks former 8th will become the 7th and stretch Southwest, probably almost to St. Cloud, the 7th becomes the 6th and takes in St. Cloud and expands east into Wright County, taking in all of the super commuters west of town in the “rurals”. The 1st expands north, taking in all the rural territory from the 2nd and goes up to the edge of the exurbs. The cities are obviously where decisions have to be made for “least change” Hennepin and Ramsey County have literally never been crossed in redistricting, so that’s a firm border to start with. Minneapolis gets it’s own district, along with the current Hennepin County suburbs, and likely takes Bloomington, which is all the population it will need due to how incredibly fast the urban core is expanding in population. My bet is that the Hennepin/Anoka border no longer gets double cross, and the 3rd takes in Anoka (city) – Blaine and south, plus it’s current territory, which should get it pretty close to population. I don’t see it as most.likely being the addition of the further out parts of Anoka County, because there are far too many people in current 3rd – Bloomington + Anoka County. I believe those areas of Anoka County may end up in an Outstate district, probably the current 8th. The 2nd largely states mostly the same except for taking in territory further west for population, and whatever part of Washington County the St. Paul district doesn’t need. So it would probably end up with current trends as 2 heavily D, 1 heavily R, and one blue trending slightly R district in the metro. Obviously, cartographers of both parties could slice and dice it much more efficiently for their chosen party. I don’t think Democrats would split Minneapolis if given the chance, but the new wave of Democrats are less attached to the old ways as people even in my recent generation are.

                    • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 4:48 pm

                      @Goldy
                      I’m drawing what you suggested, and it’s looking like MN-02 still has to take in Northfield and Red Wing unless MN-03 takes pretty much all of Anoka County. Which do you think the judges would prefer – keeping Northfield and Red Wing in MN-02, or giving MN-03 all of Anoka?


                      24, R, TN-09
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 5:50 pm

                      @SOTS
                      I’d say more of Anoka in 3, as it makes the district more geographically compact. I’ve be curious to see if that would in fact be necessary if DRA hD 2020 population projections instead of 2010 census data. The difference in population between Ellison’s district and Peterson’s is probably pretty close to 250-300k.

              • Jon December 6, 2017 at 7:00 pm

                My own thoughts:
                MN-6 is the district that is screaming “cut-me”; which will help the next version of MN-3. (The incumbent in MN-6 will probably be fine weather he lands in current MN-7 or MN-8, and I think would be a favorite if he got double bunked into MN-3 as well.)
                This does help MN-3; but even more so is that even though MN-5 is probably growing faster than MN as a whole, it’s still not growing so fast that it doesn’t need to add some population due to MN losing a seat; it might only need to gain 50K people, but any portion taken from MN-3 (which looks likely) is going to be more D than current MN-3 as a whole.

                Long term though: Even though redistricting in the short run helps us; I think the new boundaries will also trend against us in the coming decade under any conceivable map that doesn’t require an R trifecta to enact.


                45, M, MO-02

                • rdelbov December 6, 2017 at 8:59 pm

                  Ironically chopping up CD6 could start these dominoes to flip. You could see +120K in surburban R population going to CD8 then then R arounds Stearns to CD7. Then Anoka to CD3. Then on the back side you would see R surburban areas going to CD2 and CD1. My goodness chopping up CD6 -letting the GOP suffer the lost seat-could really cost the Ds

            • rdelbov December 6, 2017 at 2:26 pm

              Exactly MN-3 will likely lose 100K in D area and gain 200K in R area in next redistricting. I fully expect Emmer’s seat to be chopped up in a 7 seat MN

              • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 2:30 pm

                Well, MN-05 and MN-03 have good growth numbers, so the population changes won’t be that dramatic. Even so, it’s enough.


                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • rdelbov December 6, 2017 at 4:06 pm

                  In a 8 CD MN -the court or a D/R compromise map would likely see MN3 be a battleground for both parties. Similar to what it is now. In a seven seat MN the map just about draws itself. You start with the two big counties and move outward.

                  MN4/Ramsey. Where does it get its population for a CD in a 7 seat world? Anoka-Washington -Hennepin or Dakato? Ramsey has been attached to Washington for years and years in redistricting plus the two counties nearly make one CD. Attaching Ramsey to Anoka or Dakato would make for a radically changed map.

                  MN5 can easily fit into Hennepin county. One can argue for a bit of Anoka county or none of it but not all of it in CD5. So CD5 will chew up D area in Edina that is in CD3.

                  The urban area just draws itself. Now you could a Hennepin and Anoka CD3 but I think a CD5 is unlikely

                  • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 4:18 pm

                    A court would be exceedingly unlikely to move MN-5 north passed Spring Lake Park in Anoka County, which has long been the border of that district. Democrats would certainly draw a Minneapolis+Anoka County district if given the reigns and don’t throw the no-splitting-Minneapolis rule out the window. The 2020 election is all important, with the entire House and Senate up that day.

              • segmentation_fault December 6, 2017 at 5:00 pm

                That is true if you are taking about CDs, but very misleading. Paulsen’s seat is growing the fastest and Peterson’s is losing the most people, but look at the presidential results and trends in those seats.

                88% of 2010-2016 population growth is in the Twin Cities metro (which only makes up 55% of the state). I would say that is not good for an increasingly rural party.


                En Marche!

                • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 5:06 pm

                  Actually, Ellison’s seat is growing the fastest, if memory serves. Pauline’s is growing, but not nearly as quickly as MN-05 and MN-04.


                  24, R, TN-09
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • rdelbov December 6, 2017 at 5:18 pm

                  An Anoka -Balance of Henepin CD3 makes the most sense. Saying that Scott, balance of Hennepin and Dakato also makes a CD3. I don’t think chopping Hennepin/CD3 in three parts happens. You could do CD6 as Anoka/Hennepin plus Wright/Sherburne then CD2 would be Dakato-Scott-Carter Hennepin.

                  Instead of having a CD3 that might see an occassional race IMO CD6 and CD2 as I suggested would likely be nearly safe R seats.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 2:30 pm

            Just watch him appoint Keith Ellison.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • RogueBeaver December 6, 2017 at 2:47 pm

              Speaking of Ellison, he’s on the list alongside Smith and Walz. Source quoted says not to count out Smith. http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/06/politics/al-franken-latest/index.html


              QC/Blue Tory/M

              • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 3:03 pm

                Wait, Walz? Like, appoint him as a placeholder while he’s running for Governor? That seems kind of an odd move to be making.


                R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

                • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 3:04 pm

                  Unless Swanson doesn’t want to go to Washington and Walz in the Senate would be the opening she needed to get in for governor.

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 3:26 pm

                    And Walz would be endorsed by Swanson for the full term…


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                    • OGGoldy December 6, 2017 at 3:40 pm

                      Oh it would absolutely be part of a bigger shell game if Walz gets the appointment

        • Left Coast Libertarian December 6, 2017 at 12:24 pm

          It’s a lot easier to ask someone to resign than to expel them. In the former the person goes willingly. In the latter it’s kicking and screaming and you’re liable to piss some voters off that the DC insiders are overriding the will of the people.

  • Mayor Perk December 6, 2017 at 12:18 pm

    DNC Chair Tom Perez just tweeted Franken should resign. His goose is cooked.


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 12:30 pm

    Why the heck hasn’t there been more pressure on Ducky to drop out? Hell, there was 10x more pressure on Barton for something a tenth as bad.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Mayor Perk December 6, 2017 at 12:37 pm

    The Associated Press‏Verified account
    @AP
    5m5 minutes ago
    More
    BREAKING: Faced with multiple calls to resign, Democratic Sen. Al Franken’s office says he will have an announcement on Thursday.

    https://twitter.com/AP?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • TennesseeMike December 6, 2017 at 12:42 pm

      A twitter reply: “He will be delivering his speech from Hooters.”
      I guess this means he is gone. Would you have a big announcement you are staying? I won’t miss him.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 12:39 pm

    Breitbart actually likes the new immigration reform DACA deal rolled out by Cornyn, Grassley, Graham, and Tillis and the rest of the GOP senate conference.

    It’s actually surprising they’ve gotten people like Tillis and Graham on board what is substantively a pretty good bill.

    http://www.breitbart.com/economics/2017/12/05/senate-gop-unveils-immigration-reform-aid-for-daca-illegals/


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      I really don’t know how you all can read Breitbart:

      “said Tillis, who is a strong advocate for outsourcing Americans’ jobs” – Really?
      “but suggested he would back an bigger amnesty” – isn’t it “a bigger amnesty”, not “an”
      “Also, nearly all DACA illegals interviewed by Breitbart News has rejected any compromise proposals, including cutbacks in chain-migration” – Sure
      “The group was created by investors to lower white-collar salaries by increasing the supply of foreign white-collar workers.” – LOL
      “Each year, four million Americans turn 18 and begin looking for good jobs in the free market.” – is that comma even necessary

      The opening paragraph (a single run-on sentence) has 5 comma’s not counting the commas in the definition of the SECURE Act. Good grief.

      • BostonPatriot December 6, 2017 at 2:11 pm

        Commas, not comma’s.

        • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:12 pm

          I knew I was at risk in that post 🙂

  • Midnight901 December 6, 2017 at 1:36 pm

    MorningConsult/Politico poll has Trump at 45% approval, which is the highest I’ve seen from him in a while.

    https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/171117_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_AP-1.pdf

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 1:38 pm

      MorningConsult/Politico have consistently had Trump higher. IIRC, they had Trump at 45% in early September as well. So I guess you would read this as a return to his AUG/SEP numbers?

      Their last polls were 43%, 44%, and 42%, so my takeaway is that tax reform isn’t changing anyone’s minds on Trump, though I think it’ll at least gin up turnout among a certain type of Republican.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Republican Michigander December 6, 2017 at 1:56 pm

    MI-09 – Andy Levin in. What a joke. If he was “Andy Lyons”, he wouldn’t even be considered.

    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/06/andy-levin-campaign-congress/108365442/


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 2:06 pm

      Andy’s whole “I’m running for Governor” nonsense was nothing more than a way to raise his profile to take his Dad’s seat. We knew this was coming from the moment his trial balloon gubernatorial campaign started. As REPUBLICAN MICHIGANDER said what a joke!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 2:17 pm

      Bieda is also in. https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/938486735817924608


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Republican Michigander December 6, 2017 at 3:15 pm

        I don’t agree with Bieda on much (although he has pushed to eliminate old outdated laws on the books – which is something I appreciated), but at least the guy can stand on his own merit instead of a privileged green energy heir force guy.

        Bieda would be very difficult to beat in the general. He’s won tough races as state rep (North Warren/S. Sterling Heights swingish district). The only way to get the upset is to run up the score in Sterling Heights, St Clair Shores, Fraser, Bloomfield Twp, and Southfield Twp. Hopefully we have a clown car with Bieda and one of the Switalski’s beating each other to a pulp allowing a very flawed candidate, especially one that doesn’t have an Italian or Polish last name, to emerge.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:00 pm

    VA HoD #’s 81-84.

    So seats 76-85 all seem to fall into the Norfolk/Chesapeake/VaBeach geography but the GOP seems to have held their own here, going in with a 7-2 advantage and still holding a 5-4 advantage. All things considers for what Nov-2017 in VA turned out to be, it looks as though the incumbents here outperformed. Is that the reality (I know very little) or are these districts gerrymandered to help the GOP. I’d think the combined Norfolk/Chesapeake/VaBeach would be Tilt D in total but am not sure on that…so I’d have expected maybe 5-4 or 6-3 in favor of Dems but GOP held 5-4.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    Why is Donald Trump so all-in when it comes to tax reform? There’s actually a serious coherence to tax reform and trade policy.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-04/trump-s-economic-revolution-is-all-about-investment

    In a lot of ways, cutting back on the SALT deduction would incentivize investment in heavily under-invested areas. Then again, so does prize patrol-style corruption, so maybe there’s an economic argument that the national GOP should behave like the NY state senate.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:20 pm

      Yes if you believe taxes was causing FDI to move to lower cost countries this article has a 1% chance of making sense. But we’re not lacking in FDI in the US in AI, semiconductors, natural gas due to corporate tax rates.

      The nationalists wouldn’t want the FDI from Saudi Arabia reaping the benefits of the NatGas boom anywways so this article confuses me. Would Saudi Aramco be allowed to but ExxonMobil…I think that’d be shot down pretty quickly. Would Saudi Aramco be allowed to buy up much of the Bakken…again i think it’d be shot down.

      Intellectual property/capital is probably our greatest “natural resource” (besides land for growing our own food) and we’ve probably unintentionally benefited by keeping out some FDI. It’s not like China would respect US patent law in semi’s or AI anyways, FDI in these industries would just be giving away the store (intellectual capital).

  • TennesseeMike December 6, 2017 at 2:12 pm

    Jerusalem is the Eternal Capital of Israel.
    I’m very happy President Donald Trump has acknowledged the obvious. We acknowledge the Capitals of all other counties and it’s more than time to do so with Israel as well.


    TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    Dems who voted to support impeachment. Mostly usual suspects in ultra-safe seats but some mild to significant surprises worth noting:
    Polis
    Titus
    McCollum
    Pallone
    Pingree
    Moulton
    Slaughter
    Walz (!!)

    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/938487381807771649


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Boehnerwasright December 6, 2017 at 2:34 pm

      Walz voting yes feels the same as Northam saying Trump is a narcissistic maniac. Both a transparent attempt to court the left wing of a democratic primary. I doubt Walz will bring it up again after the primary.

      • Son_of_the_South December 6, 2017 at 2:37 pm

        Well, this is very much a ‘you can’t go home again’ decision for Walz. He’s up or out.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • cer December 6, 2017 at 3:17 pm

          I just saw bits of what was in the resolution…. pathetic!


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • cer December 6, 2017 at 5:19 pm

            I’m now watching Green’s speech on the House floor on impeachment…. the Democrats better put a muzzle on him. lol


            Conservative first, Republican second!

    • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 2:38 pm

      I don’t think Polis is a surprise (probably a flank to the left for 2018 CO-Gov primary) nor is Pingree (likely Senate run in the future). Louise Slaughter probably has between 0 and 1 election left in her so is probably just voting how she feels and not with political calculus (she’ll be 89 on election day 2018).

    • segmentation_fault December 6, 2017 at 4:44 pm

      “Moulton”

      He’s running.

      But the most significant one you actually left out, IMO, and it’s Clyburn, who is #3 in leadership. Suggests a rift.


      En Marche!

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 2:48 pm

    And then there were eight. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/i-believe-frankens-accusers-because-he-groped-me-too/547691/


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 3:00 pm

    I didn’t realize Bill Clinton, GWB and Trump were all born within ~2 months of each other. GWB appears a decent amount younger than the other 2…

    • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 3:06 pm

      Its almost like they were all born ~ 9 months after something that took most young men away from the country ended!


      R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • FiveAngels December 6, 2017 at 3:18 pm

        Should be noted that Fred Trump was considerably older than William Blythe and Papa Bush in 1946 and didn’t fight in the war. As far as I can remember the actual peak of the baby boom was 1948 — the year that will never produce a President, probably thanks to the butterfly ballot.

      • roguemapper December 6, 2017 at 3:20 pm

        Arguably the most disastrous 9 months in American history. 😉 That said, George HW Bush served in the Pacific and William J Blythe served in Egypt and Italy. Fred Trump naturally didn’t serve so the Donald’s birth date is a coincidence.


        Dem NC-11

        • Jon December 6, 2017 at 7:17 pm

          Above isn’t quite enough to prove it was coincidence; another important thing is that he married in 1936 and while he did travel quite a bit during WW II building barracks; those places would still have been less than five day travel time at the time even under wartime restrictions; (among others headlights basically 95%+ covered up along the east coast; effectively limiting speed to < 25 MPH at night, and due to gas rations most travel would have been by rail.)


          45, M, MO-02

    • HoneyBee December 6, 2017 at 3:15 pm

      Really? I saw GWB recently and thought he looked really old

      Here’s a picture
      http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2017/10/Bush-cropped.jpg

      Are you sure it’s not because he’s been mostly out of the public eye and you think of him from his Presidential days?


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • FiveAngels December 6, 2017 at 3:27 pm

        His hair sure started receding late in life. But, I would agree he still looks a bit fresher than 42 and 45.

        Coincidentally, when Ford died I made a long-term bet that Clinton is the next President to die. Doesn’t look that good as his rapid deterioration seems to have slowed down, and Carter and older Bush could die any day now.

        • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 3:35 pm

          Clinton I think slowed down. He was doing too much for a long period of time…so yes I think you’ll probably lose your bet.

      • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 3:29 pm

        I think that’s kind of a bad pic. Clinton looks like he’s about 200 and his face has so much extra skin. Trump obviously the hair and weird skin. I think maybe it’s just that he seems the most relaxed of the 3 so maybe it’s demeanor more than actual physical.

        • HS December 6, 2017 at 7:39 pm

          I think George H W Bush is the next to go. Carter will probably follow him. But Clinton looks terrible for obvious reasons – all his life he has abused his body with drugs, women, and rock and roll. It catches up with you.

          • kewgardens December 6, 2017 at 7:47 pm

            Only to some extent. I think it mostly comes down to your genes.

          • californianintexas December 6, 2017 at 10:41 pm

            Fast food too. Though he eats mostly vegan nowadays. I remember hearing about his heart surgery back in 2005.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • SlippingJimmy December 6, 2017 at 3:30 pm

      Not to mention Ted Bundy.


      Republican, TX-22.

    • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 3:13 pm

      And that means she’s out as Dallas County Sheriff because it is a resign to run post.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    AL-Sen: Roy Moore is also an adulterer! Court records suggest Roy Moore dated wife while she was still married to another man:
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/court-records-suggest-roy-moore-dated-wife-while-she-was-still-married/article/2642679


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • andyroo312 December 6, 2017 at 3:16 pm

      Meh. It’s the other stuff that stings. (Though this is of course hilarious, given how Moore is Mr. Holier Than Thou.)


      MA-7

    • Manhatlibertarian December 6, 2017 at 3:46 pm

      And this is the guy who refused to remove a 10 Commandments monument from public property, disobeying the courts. Guess he is more into putting up the 10 Commandments than obeying them. As bad as Al Franken may be, at least he didn’t set himself up as the champion of good morals, directing other people in how they should live a “moral life” like Moore. Moore’s total hypocrisy is what makes him particularly annoying.

    • segmentation_fault December 6, 2017 at 4:34 pm

      Well, the leader of the GOP is a serial adulterer, so this is probably the least of Moore’s problems.


      En Marche!

      • Ryan_in_SEPA December 6, 2017 at 4:40 pm

        We have to see if the fine people of Alabama care more about a man hitting on 14 year olds or having relations with another man’s wife.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • ike56 December 6, 2017 at 6:22 pm

          Why force them to choose when they can have both in the same man!:-)


          38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy December 6, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    A third Mueller deputy, Jeannie Rhee, apparently had earlier represented the Clinton foundation and was the personal attorney of Ben Rhodes, the controversial Obama national security advisor.

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/12/05/ingraham-mueller-deputy-jeannie-rhee-was-obama-wh-represented-clinton-foundation

    It seems now very unlikely that whatever Mueller decides, if he lasts that long, will be heeded by rank-and-file Republicans.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Manhatlibertarian December 6, 2017 at 4:15 pm

      Although Mueller reports to Deputy AG Rosenstein, it seems like he is afraid to limit Mueller in any way, so I would be very surprised if he removes him or even tries to curtail him in any significant way. IMO I think it unlikely based on what we know so far, that Trump can be charged with collusion with Russia or violating the Logan Act. But make no mistake about it, Mueller wants to get Trump, so I think he will try to get Trump on obstruction of justice. But the GOP in Congress will be wary of removing Trump because of this, since you have to show “corrupt intent” for obstruction of justice , and even more so if you have politically biased Mueller investigators gathering the evidence for obstruction of justice. The degree to which Trump’s base stays with him is also important in determining if a GOP Congress buys off on Mueller’s charges or rejects them. But even if the Congress does not remove Trump from office, Mueller will still achieve a political victory by weakening the Trump Admin in the public eye with his charges, and maybe taking down some GOP members of Congress in 2018 as a result.

      • prsteve11 December 6, 2017 at 5:19 pm

        Let me just state this for the record: Congress won’t remove President Trump and he’s not going to be brought down by all this stuff. It’s liberal fantasy. Even if the Dems get in and try to impeach, he wouldn’t be removed. Mueller’s investigation is looking more and more biased all the time and he increasingly appears to be ‘out to get Trump’ which is the same thing that brought Ken Starr’s credibility down. Considering more than 80% of Republicans support Trump, most House Republicans will dismiss any controversial ‘finding’ that Mueller and his merry band of Dem lawyers cook up.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • cer December 6, 2017 at 4:33 pm

    When it comes to John Conyers’ son, it doesn’t look like the apple falls too far from the tree.

    “Oh man. John Conyers III, who may run to replace his father, was arrested for domestic abuse in February.”

    https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/938518811396984832


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • kray December 6, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    TN-Sen: Former Governor Phil Bredesen in for Democratic Primary

    https://twitter.com/NPostPolitics/status/938523742774448129

    • rdw72777 December 6, 2017 at 4:59 pm

      He must be bored because he’s smart enough to know he can’t win.

    • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 4:59 pm

      Thanks a good get for the Dems.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • prsteve11 December 6, 2017 at 5:21 pm

        It’s a good get but not good enough.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • Boehnerwasright December 6, 2017 at 5:00 pm

      Can Bredesen still find a home in an increasing liberal democratic party? I could see him having a lot of problems turning out base voters, once his record as govenor is re-litigated.
      Things like throwing people off the TennCare rolls could play badly-

      • Tekzilla December 6, 2017 at 5:02 pm

        I’m super happy to have him but I’m obviously not the base of the party.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • roguemapper December 6, 2017 at 5:10 pm

          What is this nonsense about the “base of the party” and whether Bredesen can “find a home in an increasing liberal democratic party”? This is Tennessee we’re talking about and Bredesen’s approval rating among TN Democrats was 60-7 when polled in October. The D primary is a done deal. The general election is of course another matter altogether.


          Dem NC-11

          • Boehnerwasright December 6, 2017 at 5:25 pm

            I agree that the primary is no problem for him. My comment was for the general election.

            My point about an increasing liberal party is that I doubt Bredesen can still count on the rural whites that elected him in 2002 and 2006. Even a conservative dem like Bredesen will need bonkers margin out of Nashville and other towns/suburbs to win.
            And for these voters who today form the base of the TN democrats Bredesen record as govenor could be a problem. They won’t vote for his opponent, but simply not turning out dooms Bredesen.

            • Indy1975a December 6, 2017 at 8:25 pm

              I wouldn’t be surprised if Bredesen overperforms massively in the Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Memphis metro areas. And it still won’t be enough.


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

            • HS December 6, 2017 at 8:29 pm

              My understanding is his opponent is 44 versus his 74, and the opponent has raised $1 million. Therefore, I could see Bresden lose if the race becomes about “the new generation.” Especially if Bresden thinks it is in the bag and doesn’t run a strong campaign.

      • TennesseeMike December 6, 2017 at 5:38 pm

        Can Bredesen find a home in an increasing liberal Democrat senate caucus? I’m not sure. He would feel out of place for sure.
        Will Bredesen win the Democrat Senate primary? The only question is if he gets more than 70% of the vote.
        Can Bredesen win the general election? No. Blackburn will win by double digits.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

        • prsteve11 December 6, 2017 at 6:53 pm

          Bredesen will very likely have the rude awakening of state vs federal races. Being a popular governor isn’t enough to win a Senate seat in a state as conservative as Tennessee, especially considering how far TN has shifted right since 2006. In 2004, Bush won TN 57%-43% to 2016 where Trump won 61%-35%. That’s superficial but the trends are clear.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • andyroo312 December 6, 2017 at 8:24 pm

      With this, I’d nudge the race from Likely to Lean R. Blackburn probably wins by high single-digits but at least it puts another seat somewhat into play for the Dems.


      MA-7

  • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 4:58 pm

    Franken will resign Thursday!


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian December 6, 2017 at 5:45 pm

    Dates have been set for recounts for two of the four close Virginia House of Delegate races. The recount for HOD district 40, where the Repub leads by 106 v0tes, will take place on Dec 13-14. The recount for HOD district 28, where the Repub leads by 82 votes is set for Dec 21. I haven’t seen recount dates yet for HOD district 94, where the Repub leads by 10 votes or HOD district 68, where the Dem leads by 336 votes. The recounts will be conducted by local elections officials under the supervision of a 3 judge panel, which can rule on disputed ballots.

    https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/12/prince-william-fairfax-co-house-recount-set-dec-13-14/

  • RogueBeaver December 6, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    MI-13: John Conyers III was arrested in February and accused of stabbing his girlfriend in a domestic dispute, prosecutors later dropped charges. He says he’s not sure he wants to run due to the grief of public life. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/us/politics/john-conyers-iii-stabbing-domestic-violence.html?smid=tw-share


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 9:41 pm

      John Conyers III is just living up to the high ethical standard his Mother and Father have set in public office.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Jon December 6, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    Thoughts on the Great Sort in the news section:
    1. It does a disservice when it doesn’t distinguish between legal immigration and illegal immigration.
    2. While perhaps moving too areas that vote the same as you might not be the listed reason to move; it does directly relate in that a reason for moving in the first place can be you feel your taxes are too high for what you benefit from; which amounts to a proxy for the area is too Democratic.
    Conversely those who moved into the loft district were moving into a type of environment that doesn’t tend to form when Republicans are in charge.


    45, M, MO-02

  • kewgardens December 6, 2017 at 7:33 pm

    Dems going all out for Jones in Alabama. Trying to max out African-American turnout. https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/938552578857684992

    Would not be shocked if Obama made a surprise appearance in Alabama over the weekend.

    • Mike1965 December 6, 2017 at 7:36 pm

      LOL, There is no way the bring Obama to ALABAMA.


      #ThanksObama

      • andyroo312 December 6, 2017 at 8:26 pm

        Yeah, I wouldn’t bring Obama in. That said, I do think it’s smart to bring the rest of the African-American pols down.


        MA-7

      • Izengabe December 6, 2017 at 9:43 pm

        I’m sure Roy Moore’s campaign would be happy to pay for Barack Obama to come to Alabama.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • prsteve11 December 6, 2017 at 9:03 pm

      I don’t know if that equates to going all out for Jones. But it’s clear they think they have an outside shot in winning.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • cer December 6, 2017 at 10:13 pm

    Just another day in Massachusetts politics.

    http://www.bizpacreview.com/2017/12/06/top-democrat-mass-senate-steps-aside-amid-sexual-misconduct-probe-husband-572367?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 10:49 pm

      Who would have thought 15 years ago we’d have a gay sex scandal where the scandal isn’t that a major political official is secretly gay?


      R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • shamlet December 6, 2017 at 10:24 pm

    Mayor of Davenport, FL (tiny town in eastern Polk County) stole a dead woman’s handicap parking tag: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/12/06/a-florida-mayor-stole-a-dead-womans-identity-to-use-a-handicapped-parking-spot-police-say/?utm_term=.1a0de45b1d61&tid=sm_tw&tid=sm_tw&tid=sm_tw


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Republican Michigander December 6, 2017 at 10:48 pm

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll663.xml – National Reciprocity passed the house.

    Only 6 D’s supported it. Things have chanced since 2000.
    Sanford Bishop
    Henry Cueller
    Gonzalez of Texas (Henry?)
    Ron Kind
    Colin Peterson
    Kurt Schrader

    14 R’s voted no, either libertarians or Heavy Miami or Northeast. I’ll give some a pass in tough districts, but others…..
    Amash (sighs)
    Ken Buck
    Costello (PA)
    Curbelo
    Donovan
    Fitzpatrick
    Gohmert (grrrrr)
    King
    Lance
    Massie (grrr)
    Meehan
    Roskam
    Ros-Lehtinen
    Smith

    My congressman supported it.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Midnight901 December 6, 2017 at 10:50 pm

      Little chance of passing the Senate though, right?

      • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 10:56 pm

        Not going to break a Filibuster at least, so it’ll be a great opportunity for guys like Tester to score a good vote from the NRA without actually doing anything.


        R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • Republican Michigander December 6, 2017 at 11:14 pm

        Depends, but it’s the best chance there is, so I’m not going to throw the towel here. Obama’s not there.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Manhatlibertarian December 6, 2017 at 11:02 pm

      The Dem supporting the bill is Vicente Gonzalez, not Henry Gonzalez, who is no longer in the House. He is a Blue Dog Dem.

  • Manhatlibertarian December 6, 2017 at 10:53 pm

    Kim Davis, the Rowan County Kentucky County Clerk who drew media attention when she denied marriage licenses to gay couples in defiance of a court order, plans to run for re-election next year as a Republican (She was elected in 2014 as a Democrat). She has attracted a Dem opponent, David Ermold, one of the gay men she denied a marriage license to; don’t know if there are any other Dem candidates. Should be an interesting race.

    https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/06/gay-man-to-run-against-kentucky-clerk-who-denied-him-marriage-license/23299526/

    • Jon December 6, 2017 at 11:09 pm

      Unlucky to be interesting in Rowan County. Not sure even the equivalent of DGLB would defeat her there.


      45, M, MO-02

      • Greyhound December 6, 2017 at 11:34 pm

        Eh, its not like Rowan county is all that Republican. Obama won it in 2008, which is amazing for what is essentially rural Appalachia in Eastern Kentucky, and Trump didn’t even crack 60% there.


        R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • californianintexas December 7, 2017 at 1:40 am

          The county is trending Republican, catching up to the rest of the region. It isn’t as solid R probably due to Morehead State University.


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • Manhatlibertarian December 6, 2017 at 11:42 pm

        Oh in a rural Kentucky county she would be the favorite against Ermold. But from a perspective of irony I doubt she ever expected one of the gay guys she wouldn’t give a marriage license to might be her opponent. So the race might attract some media attention. By the way a couple of years ago, when the controversy broke, her position paid $80,000 (might be more now), not a bad salary in rural Kentucky. So no wonder she is running for re-election.

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