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California Primary Results

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How will these results compare to the final primary numbers? In 2022, Republicans gained after the final election night in most districts. The exceptions were mostly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Most counties count specific types of ballots at the same time, (early VBM, followed by in person, followed by late VBM/provisional) resulting in a fairly uniform change. 

Democrats do very well in the initial count. Republicans do very well in everything the rest of election night. Then Republicans do well in post-election counting. The first two happened last night, so there’s no reason to expect anything different.

Riverside county moved more Republican than others post-election night in 2022. They may have had uncounted in person ballots. 

How will the primary compare to the general?

The Senate numbers right now are D 57.2%-R 40.8%. The 2022 primary was D 58.9%-R 37.5%. That’s a change from 21.4% to 16.4%. We don’t know where the number will end up. If it is 16 we probably can’t attribute that entirely to a competitive Republican primary. If you want to be conservative you can put it at 5 points. 

The general was D+22.2%. So overall they only did 6 points better than the 2022 general.   

On a district level Democrats do better in the general most, but not all, districts. For the most part it’s under 4 points although they did gain 9 points in one district. CA-45 was +14 in the primary and +5 in the general. It’s possible these results are more Republican skewing than 2022 since the Republican Presidential primary was more competitive.

While Padilla only gained 1 point congressional districts varied widely. There were a bunch where Republicans did better in the general than the primary. These were mostly Hispanic districts.

When the final primary vote is out any Republican candidate with a 7-10 point win looks good. Over 10 has proven safe. If you think the general will shift more, add 2 points. But wait for the final vote. Don’t use this one.

Senate:

Adam Schiff is an impressive candidate. Polling showed him ahead of Katie Porter by 2-8 points during the campaign. He polled better as time wore on but no one expected him to beat Porter by 19. Without any help Steve Garvey was sure to exceed Katie Porter’s 13.8%. 

With such a high Republican turnout he was going to get at least 20%, perhaps 25-30% anyway. Schiff may have helped Garvey but he was running against Eric Early and James Bradley for the Republican vote. They were splitting up 40.8% of the vote.

Schiff will win easily. The question is whether he’s a high achiever who might hit 63% or the Republican surge is real and he only gets 58%. 

Republican districts:

CA-3: Kevin Kiley is +12. He gained another 5 points after election night in 2022. We’ll look at it again after the final count but I don’t think he’s not in real danger.

CA-13: The 2022 primary was R+3 but election night was actually D+5. John Duarte pulled out a squeaker. He’s at R+9 now, 14 points better than he was at the same time in 2022. He appears to be better situated than 2022. He’s certainly not safe though.

CA-22: Democrats weren’t shut out of top two. That’s the good news. The bad news is that on election night in 2022 this district was R+6 on the way to R+10 final. It’s already R+13. Unless something unexpected happens Valadao is a heavy favorite.

CA-27: In 2022 the race was R+7 on election night but the final vote was R+1. Los Angeles county can be a bit funky when counting ballots. Mike Garcia won by 6.5 in the general, however, and he’s at a ridiculous R+18. I’m shocked the number is that high but Garcia seems pretty comfortable here.

CA-40: We’re at R+16 now, but 2022 was actually better at a similar point. Young Kim won the general by 14 in 2022.

CA-41: Things looked bleak for Ken Calvert initially but he’s actually slightly ahead. He was down 2 on election night in 2022, finished up 7, and won the general by 5. Certainly this one will be competitive but I’d favor Calvert.

CA-45: Late counting went Democratic in 2022 but Michelle Steel is up 14. It looks good right now.

Republicans could lose a district, or even more, but I think they are favored in all of them pending the final vote.

Democratic districts:

CA-9: Josh Harder is only up 2 but he was trailing at this point in 2022 and he made a big jump for the general. This district may be competitive but Harder has beaten all challengers.

CA-21: On primary election night in 2022 Jim Costa was up 21. He’s up 6 now. On the one hand, Costa has looked vulnerable before and beaten back Republican challengers. On the other hand, California Hispanics are abandoning Democrats. I don’t think Costa will lose but this one bears watching.

CA-38: Pretty much the same as CA-21. Biden won this district by 30 but Sanchez only won by 16 in 2022. She’s only 5 points better than the Republicans now. Democrats did gain in LA County in the late count in 2022 but let’s not sleep on this one yet.

CA-47: This district went Republican up ballot in 2022. The popular opinion was that Katie Porter won through hard work. Porter is gone and DUI Dave Min is the Democrat on the ballot. It’s R+5 now. If a district is going to flip this one is most likely. 

CA-49: The commission did what they could to make the district safe for Mike Levin in 2022 and he managed a 5 point win in November. He’s still the favorite but certainly not safe. 

February 2024 Judiciary News

2023 in Review:

Circuit judges: Biden has filled 11 circuit court seats in 2023, for a total of 39 overall. Only 1 of the 11 replaced an R appointee (moderately conservative Brooks Smith). There are 4 more nominees waiting for votes. There are 4 more future vacancies without nominees. There are 14 more D-appointed circuit court judges who are eligible for senior status but have not yet taken it.

Three nominees are in red states (SC, TX, KS) and two in purple states (MT, OH). Three (SC, TX, KS) had support from home state R senators, and two (MT, OH) did not. Only 2 of 11 circuit appointees is a white male (4 of 39 overall). This compares to President Trump’s appointment of 50 Circuit judges in his first three years.

The most votes for a circuit judge was 80 for Irma Carrillo Ramirez, and the smallest margin in 2023 was 2 for Nancy Abudu and Rachel Bloomekatz. Biden’s biggest impact is on the 9th Circuit, where he has appointed 8 judges and the 2nd Circuit (6 judges).

District Judges: Biden appointed 58 district judges, for a total of 126 overall. This compares to President Trump’s appointment of 133 District judges in his first three years.

Three district judges were confirmed by voice vote, Matthew Brookman (SD-IN), Amanda Brailsford (D-ID), and John Russell (ND-OK). Aside from them, the most votes was 67 for Jennifer L. Hall (D-DE). Six judges were confirmed by 1-vote margins (Araceli Martínez-Olguín, Margaret Guzman, Dale Ho, Nusrat Choudhury, Natasha Merle, Loren AliKhan).  Seven (IN, ID, 3 LA, 2 OK) appointees are in red states, and none are in purple states.

Year in Review:  Harsh Voruganti of The Vetting Room reviews judicial nominations in 2023.

Top Stories:  Bloomberg lists what it considers the top five stories on judicial nominations in 2023.

Year in Review:  Carrie Severino reviews judicial nominations in 2023.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Judiciary Committee:  The Senate Judiciary Committee voted to subpoena conservative activists Harlan Crow, Robin Arkley, and Leonard Leo as part of their effort to smear conservative judges.  They could only do so by violating their own rules and ignoring amendments put forward by R senators.

Biden nominations: Leftists are worried that Biden will be unable to appoint as many judges as Trump did in his term.

Renomination:  President Biden did not renominate Scott Colom (ND-MS), Charnelle Bjelkengren (ED-WA), Todd Edelman (D-DC), Marian Gaston (SD-CA), and Colleen Holland (WD-NY).  Colom did not get a blue slip from Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith.  Bjelkengren failed basic questioning by Senator Kennedy (R-LA).

Blue Slip:  Leftists are still trying to eliminate the blue slip for district judges, but Senator Durbin does not support this.

3rd Circuit:  Carrie Severino exposes nominee Adeel Mangi, who served on the board of advisors for the Center for Security, Race, and Rights at Rutgers Law School, which has a long history of promoting anti-Semitic and anti-Christian events.

Claims:  Senator John Kennedy stumped nominee Robin Meriweather with the question of what are the grounds for granting a new trial in the Court of Federal Claims.

Nominations:
ED-NY: Sanket Bulsara-clerk for John Koeltl (SD-NY), Magistrate Judge (ED-NY)
D-SD: Eric Schulte-private practice
D-SD: Camela Theeler-judge (Second Judicial Circuit of SD), AUSA (D-SD)
ED-CA: Dena Coggins-judge (Juvenile Court, Sacramento County)
7th Circuit: Nancy Maldonado-clerk for Rubén Castillo (ND-IL), judge (ND-IL)
ND-IL: Georgia Alexakis-clerk for Milton Shadur (ND-IL), Marsha Berzon (9th Circuit), AUSA (ND-IL)
D-AZ: Krissa Lanham-clerk for Robert Chatigny (D-CT), Barry Silverman (9th Circuit), AUSA (D-AZ)
D-AZ: Angela Martinez-clerk for John Roll, Jennifer Zipps (D-AZ), AUSA (D-AZ), magistrate judge (D-AZ)
D-DC: Sparkle Sooknanan-clerk for Sotomayor, Guido Calabresi (2nd Circuit), Eric Vitaliano (ED-NY), Justice Department

The Federal Judiciary:

Supreme Court:  The New York Times has a story about the Dobbs abortion case using sources from inside the Supreme Court.  They try to imply that the person who leaked the Dobbs draft was a conservative, but Ed Whelan shows that close reading of the article suggests the opposite.

O’Connor:  Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor died on December 1 at age 93.  She was appointed by Reagan in 1981 and retired in 2006.  She was previously an Arizona state senator (1969-75) and Arizona Court of Appeals judge (1979-81).

Sotomayor:  In a recent speech, Justice Sotomayor said “I live in frustration. And as you heard, every loss truly traumatizes me in my stomach and in my heart.”

Federal Circuit:  David Lat recently interviewed Judge Pauline Newman, who was suspended for one year from her duties by the Federal Circuit. Critics claim she is unable to fulfill her duties, but she seems lucid in the interview.  She claims that she is being mistreated due to her frequent dissents and is challenging her suspension in court.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 91 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
D-MN: Wilhelmina Wright (Obama) 2/15/24 (resigned)
ED-NY: Joan Azrack (Obama) 12/19/24 (senior)
ED-LA: Sarah Vance (Clinton) 1/16/24 (senior)
SD-NY: Lorna Schofield (Obama) 12/31/24 (senior)
4th Circuit: James Wynn (Obama) TBD (senior)
7th Circuit: Ilana Rovner (HW) TBD (senior)
CD-CA: Dale Fischer (W) 5/1/2024 (senior)
11th Circuit: Charles Wilson (Clinton) 12/31/24 (senior)
CD-CA: Philip Gutierrez (W) 10/15/24 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Elections:  The AP has a preview of state supreme court elections that are likely to be hotly contested in 2024.

Arkansas:  Two seats are up for election on March 5.
Chief Justice:  John Dan Kemp is retiring.  Current justices Karen Baker, Barbara Webb, and Rhonda Wood are all seeking the seat.  The final candidate is former state rep Jay Martin (D).
Seat 2: Appointed incumbent Cody Hiland (R) is ineligible to run for reelection.  Seat 3 incumbent Courtney Rae Hudson is seeking this seat on the dubious rationale that she would be able to avoid age limits for a few more years (even though she is only 50).  The other candidate is Circuit Judge Carlton Jones.

Massachusetts:  Governor Maura Healey (D) nominated State Solicitor Elizabeth Dewar to replace Elspeth Cypher, who will retire on January 1.  Dewar clerked for Louis Pollak (ED-PA), William Fletcher (9th Circuit), and Breyer at the Supreme Court.  She was appointed solicitor by Healey in 2016.

Montana:  The Montana Supreme Court ruled 5-2 that the state legislature must pay attorney’s fees to lawyers who sued to overturn a bill to reform abuses by Montana’s leftist judges.

Tennessee:  The Governor’s Council for Judicial Appointments selected three of six applicants as finalists for a vacancy on the Tennessee Supreme Court.  The seat will be vacated by Justice Roger Page in August.  Governor Bill Lee will get his third appointment to the court.

Wyoming:  Governor Mark Gordon appointed Robert Jarosh to the Wyoming Supreme Court.  Jarosh clerked for Magistrate Judge William Beamon (D-WY) and works in private practice.  He was one of three finalists to replace Justice Keith Kautz, who leaves the court on March 26.

Numbers and Trivia:

Chief Judges: The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are W (2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed) and Obama (1, 4, 9, DC). There are two chief judges that will change in 2024. They are expected to be
5th Circuit (October 4) Priscilla Richman (W) ->  Jennifer Elrod (W)
8th Circuit (March 11) Lavenski Smith (W) -> Steven Colloton (W)

Here are the numbers of senior status declarations/retirements for federal judges (circuit judges) for the past year.
4 (1) January 2023
3 (1) February
8 (0) March/April
2 (0) May
4 (0) June
1 (0) July
7 (0) August/September
13 (1) October/November
2 (0) December 2023
44 (3) Total (2023)
59 (8) Total (2022)
99 (30) Total (2021)

History:

On Ed Whelan’s Substack, “Confirmation Tales“, recent posts deal with George W. Bush’s nomination of federal judges.
Preparing For Rehnquist’s Resignation
2004 Senate Victories Pave Smooth Path to Supreme Court Confirmation
Arlen Specter Stumbles into Dream Role as Judiciary Committee Chairman
Rehnquist Stuns O’Connor Into Retiring
Could Justice O’Connor Have Revoked Her Retirement Decision?
The Day I Met John Roberts Changed My Life


Resources:

Blogs: Bench Memos (NR) The Vetting Room How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Podcasts: Advisory Opinions Law Talk
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings 2023-2024
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges Biden Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia: State Supreme Court Vacancies 2024 Elections 2024
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December
2021: January February March April May June July August September October November December
2022: January February March April May June July August September October Elections December
2023: January February March May June July August October December

Realistic Congressional and Supreme Court Maps for Louisiana, 2024

 As we political junkies already know, Louisiana is having a special session this week to redraw its congressional and supreme court districts. A new congressional map is mandated by the federal courts because it is possible to draw two decently compact black-majority seats out of the six districts in the state. It is the nearest proportion considering that African Americans are about a third of the state population. So anything less than that arguably disenfranchises the said racial group.

On the other hand, five of the seven state supreme court justices would also like that state’s judicial districts to also be made proportional to the share of the black population. However, the truth is that infighting and vengeance play major roles in this debacle. And the involved parties are using this redistricting session to extract retribution against their political enemies. However, I think the maps I saw being proposed so far can be bizarre and unnecessarily unwieldy, even if we consider the parochial interest of the involved politicians. So, as a thought exercise, I tried to draw what I think would be better maps while taking competing interests into account.

Congressional Districts

In the process of drawing the congressional maps, the following considerations are factored into:

  • “Protect Julia [Letlow]”
    • Mrs. Letlow is the only female member of the Louisiana congressional delegation. There is outpouring sympathy for her for losing her husband to COVID-19, and she is universally well-liked. However, her seat is the one that most conventional redistricting maps turn into a second black-majority seat. State leaders don’t want that, so they want to set their sights instead to ….   
  • “Screw Garret [Graves]”
    • Mr. Graves is generally seen to harbor gubernatorial aspirations. And Gov. Jeff Landry hates him for that. While he ultimately didn’t run in 2023, Graves persuaded Stephen Waguespack to run for governor instead. This put Mr. Landry in danger of going into run-off instead of winning the gubernatorial election outright. Fortunately for Mr. Landry, he got 51% of the vote, so ultimately no run-off is needed. Graves can also run in succeeding gubernatorial elections and even challenge Landry in 2027.
    • Mr. Graves also purportedly undermined House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s bid to become House Speaker by supposedly speaking ill-health about him. This angered Scalise, and with Landry also holding a grudge against Graves, they now want to extract their pound of flesh against Graves.
  • “Create one [seat] for [Cleo] Fields”
    • Mr. Fields is reportedly a political friend of Gov. Landry. While Fields endorsed his party’s gubernatorial nominee publicly last year, political insiders believe that he worked behind the scenes privately to elect Gov. Landry. As a reward, Landry wants to gift him a congressional seat. State Sen. Fields is even appointed chairman of the state senate redistricting committee. Thus, no map that hinders Fields’ congressional comeback will be passed, despite the grumblings of partisan Republicans. This comeback is 28 years in the making. He was first elected to congress at age 29, and he is now set to return to the said chamber at age 62. I believe only Rick Nolan’s congressional interlude is longer, at 32 years between 1981 and 2013. Please tell me if there are other similar cases.
    • While the map endorsed so far by Gov. Landry extends this new seat all the way to Shreveport, a similar iteration to that which existed from 1995 to 1997 has been struck down by the courts as an illegal racial gerrymander. This ultimately ended Cleo Field’s earlier congressional career, and he must know better than anyone else that such district arrangement must be avoided. Thus, I would not be creating a district like that.
  • Consider parochial interests, while also making a decent looking map
    • It seems to me that parochial interests instead of maximizing partisan gains prevail at the end of the day in Louisiana, as evidenced by the actions of their political actors. However, the maps they have drawn so far are unnecessarily egregious, so I would like to improve on it.

With all of that in the way, I present the tentative map I’ve drawn with a link to DRA here.

As you can see, the new black district (LA-06) is centered around Baton Rouge while grabbing black precincts in Lafayette and Alexandria. It also includes the western half of the current LA-02. It is 50.9% black, and Biden won it by 14.4 points. Cleo Fields should be happy with that already especially since the original maps that he and his Democratic colleagues earlier proposed are weaker and only Biden +10.

Meanwhile, I also “protected Julia and screwed Garret” here. I tried to make LA-05 demographically dominated by Mrs. Letlow instead of by Mr. Graves. Earlier maps that I saw that are like the one I came up with in this version have their LA-05 with almost equal shares from Julia and Garret’s current districts. East Baton Rouge (EBR) and Livingston look small, but they are deceivingly big population-wise, so Graves has a fighting chance to win. Thus, Julia won’t be protected, and Garret won’t be screwed. In this map, I made the deliberate effort to make this a 56.4% Letlow-39.0% Graves district. The rest of the population comes from Speaker Mike Johnson’s district which is geographically Mrs. Letlow’s turf. So, while I originally intended to explicitly remove left-trending non-black EBR precincts from Mr. Fields’ new district, doing so would just strengthen Mr. Graves. So, I settled with this configuration. To add insult to the injury, I put Garret’s home into Cleo’s district so he can’t vote for himself anymore. Actually, my original plan is to double-bunk Graves and the Odious Clay Higgins into the same district. But the lines got ugly, so I scrapped it.

To make up for the lost western half of LA-02, I extended it northwards into St. Helena and Tangipahoa parishes. Doing so preserves LA-02’s black-majority status. Also, former Gov. John Bel Edwards would be happy that he’d be represented by a Democrat, finally. Needless to say, it is a safe Democratic seat and Troy Carter would cruise to reelection here. On the other hand, LA-01 receives Washington parish while still taking the non-black precincts of urban New Orleans metro. Steve Scalise can rest easy and focus on his cancer treatment. Not much has changed in Mike Johnson’s LA-03 and Clay Higgins’ LA-04.

State Supreme Court Districts

As a background, the following are Louisiana’s supreme court justices:

  1. John Crain (R – Madisonville, St. Tammany Parish)
  2. Scott Crichton (R – Shreveport, Caddo Parish)
  3. James T. Genovese (R – Opelousas, St. Landry Parish)
  4. Scott McCallum (R – Farmerville, Union Parish)
  5. Jefferson D. Hughes III (R – Walker, Livingston Parish)
  6. John Weimer (I – Thibodaux, Lafourche Parish)
  7. Piper Griffin (D – New Orleans, Orleans Parish)

Here is the current supreme court map:

Here is the map as proposed by five of the seven justices:

In the process of drawing the judicial maps, the following considerations are factored into:

  • Create a new black seat
    • While this is good and all, it is just an excuse to ….
  • “target [Chief Justice John] Weimer”
    • To quote the reference of this diary: “Weimer is unpopular among the judiciary because he is a political independent and skinflint when it comes to spending government money. Last year, he was opposed by the six associate justices when he supported a legislative proposal to trim per diems and supplemental pay for judges and justices. That proposal didn’t advance, to Weimer’s dismay.”
  • Limit county splits
    • I only permitted myself to split parishes to create black-majority seats. Otherwise, no county splits shall be allowed since zero population deviation is not required. The map proposed by the justices is so unnecessary gruesome.
  • Consider parochial interests, while also making a decent looking map
    • Same explanation as with that one for the congressional maps

Considering all of that, I present the tentative map I’ve drawn with a link to DRA here.

Take note that I have no data on the exact residences of the justices, so I just approximated their houses in their hometowns. So, there’s a chance that Justices Piper Griffin, James Genovese, and John Weimer live outside their intended districts. The mapmakers can just adjust this right away instead. I reworked the map so that the districts have the same population, because the current and the proposed districts have very high population disparities, from just around 400k of Justice Griffin’s distric to over 800k of Justice William Crain’s district.

The subject of this map, Chief Justice Weimer (6th District – I), is double-bunked with Justice Griffin (7th District – D) into the 7th District. While I originally placed Weimer into the open black-majority 6th district, he could squeak into reelection in that district, instead of the district electing a black justice as intended. At least here, Griffin has her New Orleans base intact, while the Cajun country constituency of Weimer is decimated. The other supreme court districts are also made to be more geographically coherent, while taking into account the parochial interests of the justices.

Any feedback and suggestions would be welcome. While personally, I won’t be submitting this to the mapmakers, anyone seeing this can do so with my blessing.

References:

Bridges, T. (2024, January 14). Jeff Landry supports plan to create New Black Supreme Court district, but it draws flak. NOLA.com. https://www.nola.com/news/politics/jeff-landry-and-supreme-court-justices-support-court-remap/article_e91816ac-ac1c-11ee-8ebe-4fae9c36dcbc.html  

LaRose, G. (2023, December 30). Chief justice reveals rifts in Louisiana Supreme Court over redistricting – Louisiana Illuminator. Louisiana Illuminator. https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/30/louisiana-court-redistricting/

December 2023 Judiciary News

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Judiciary Committee:  The late senator Dianne Feinstein’s seat on the Senate Judiciary Committee will be filled by Laphonza Butler (D-CA), just as she filled Feinstein’s senate seat.

Judiciary Committee:  Senate Ds are planning to subpoena conservative activists Harlan Crow, Robin Arkley, and Leonard Leo as part of their effort to smear conservative judges.  The committee stalled due to R opposition to the plan, including threats to subpoena numerous leftist individuals and organizations.

ND-OK:  Under questioning from Sen. John Kennedy, nominee Sara Hill was unable to explain the difference between a “stay” order and an “injunction” order.

SD-FL:  The White House finally reached a deal with Florida’s R senators on judicial nominations.  Notably, the deal includes David Leibowitz, “nephew of billionaire Norman Braman, a longtime Rubio benefactor”, who was considered but not nominated under Trump.

Nominations:
WD-TX: Ernest Gonzalez-Department of Justice, AUSA (ED-TX)
WD-TX: Leon Schydlower-Magistrate Judge (WD-TX),
D-NB: Susan Bazis-Magistrate Judge (D-NB)
D-UT: Ann Marie McIff Allen-judge (Utah’s Fifth District Court)
D-WY: Kelly Rankin-Magistrate Judge (D-WY), US Attorney
Claims: Robin Meriweather-clerk for Merrick Garland (DC Circuit), Magistrate Judge (D-DC)
D-DC: Amir Ali-clerk for Raymond Fisher (9th Circuit), Marshall Rothstein (Supreme Court of Canada), MacArthur Justice Center
D-RI: Melissa DuBose-judge (Rhode Island District Court)
WD-VA: Jasmine Yoon-clerk for James Cacheris (ED-VA), corporate counsel
ED-MI: Robert White-AUSA (ED-MI)
ND-IL: Sunil Harjani-clerk for Suzanne Conlon (ND-IL), Magistrate Judge (ND-IL)
SD-CA: Rebecca Kanter-clerk for Harry Hupp (CD-CA), AUSA (SD-CA), judge (San Diego County Superior Court)

The Federal Judiciary:

Ethics:  The Supreme Court issued a code of ethics, largely codifying its existing practices.  While this is likely a response to leftist attacks on the court, it is unlikely that critics will be satisfied.

3rd Circuit:  Maryanne Trump Barry, older sister of former president Trump, died in November at age 86.  She was appointed to D-NJ by Reagan in 1983 and to the 3rd Circuit by Clinton in 1999.  She took senior status in 2011 and retired in 2019.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 97 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
ED-LA: Eldon Fallon (Clinton) 1/1/24 (senior)
ED-MO: Ronnie White (Obama) 7/31/24 (retired)
ED-CA: Kimberly Mueller (Obama) 9/17/24 (senior)
D-MD: James Bredar (Obama) 4/30/24 (senior)
SD-OH: Algernon Marbley (Clinton) TBD (senior)
CD-IL: James Shadid (Obama) 9/27/24 (senior)
ND-CA: Edward Davila (Clinton) TBD (senior)
MD-PA: Malachy Mannion (Obama) 1/3/24 (senior)
D-AZ: G. Murray Snow (W) 10/21/24 (senior)
1st Circuit: William Kayatta (Obama) TBD (senior)
D-MA: Patti Saris (Clinton) TBD (senior)
ND-IL: Rebecca Pallmeyer (Clinton) 8/1/24 (senior)
MD-FL: Timothy Corrigan (W) 11/2/24 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Hawaii:  Governor Josh Green (D) nominated Lisa Ginoza and Vladimir Devens to fill the Hawaii Supreme Court seats vacated by Justices Michael Wilson and Paula Nakayama.  Ginoza is chief judge of the Intermediate Court of Appeals, and has served on it since 2010.  Devens is a labor attorney in private practice.

Idaho:  Governor Brad Little appointed Cynthia Meyer to the Idaho Supreme Court.  She was appointed a district judge by Butch Otter in 2015.  She was one of four people nominated by the Idaho Judicial Council for the seat being vacated by John Stegner.

Massachusetts:  Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Justice David Lowy will retire from the court on February 3, 2024 to become general counsel for University of Massachusetts.  He was appointed by Charlie Baker in 2016.  Governor Maura Healey (D) will appoint replacements for Lowy and Elspeth Cypher, who will retire on January 12. 

Missouri:  Governor Mike Parson (R) appointed Missouri Court of Appeals judge Ginger Gooch to the seat on the Missouri Supreme Court vacated by Justice Patricia Breckenridge.  She was appointed to the Missouri Court of Appeals in 2022.  The other two finalists for the position were Missouri Court of Appeals judges Michael Gardner and John Torbitzky, who were among 22 applicants for the position.  Gooch and Gardner were finalists for the previous vacancy in August.

New Hampshire:  New Hampshire Supreme Court Justice Gary Hicks will be age-limited on November 30.  He was appointed by John Lynch (D) in 2006.  Governor Chris Sununu (R) has nominated Melissa Beth Countway to the seat.  She was appointed to the circuit court by Sununu in 2017 and was previously a county prosecutor.  If the NH Executive Council votes to confirm the nomination, the NH Supreme Court will have 4R and 1D appointees.

Pennsylvania:  Daniel McCaffery (D) defeated Carolyn Carluccio (R) 53-47 for an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.  The seat was previously held by Max Baer (D), but had been open for a year after his death.  The court will again be 5D, 2R.

Tennessee:  Justice Roger Page will retire in August 2024.  He was appointed in 2016 by Bill Haslam.  Governor Bill Lee will get his third appointment to the court.

Wyoming:  Wyoming Supreme Court Justice Keith Kautz will leave the court on March 26 due to age limits.  He was appointed by Matt Mead in 2015.  Governor Mark Gordon (R) will get his second appointment to the court.

History:

On Ed Whelan’s Substack, “Confirmation Tales“, recent posts deal with Bill Clinton’s nomination of federal judges.
The Messy Reality of a Republican Senate Majority
Blue Slips and Red States
Ninth Circuit Contender Is Exposed As Pretender
Senate Democrats Block Vote on Clinton Judicial Nominee
Bill Clinton’s Lower-Court Appointments, By The Numbers
Prepare For Turbulence Ahead
Alberto Gonzales as Supreme Court Candidate
My Bit Role in Ashcroft Hospital Saga

Resources:
Blogs: Bench Memos (NR) The Vetting Room How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
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The Path to retake Michigan’s State House 2024

Note – This is ASSUMING that no swing districts profiled here are touched by the current VRA lawsuits right now.

The gerrymandered commission drew a democrat favorable map combined with strange communities of interests and city/county splits. It resulted in a 56-54 Democrat Majority in the State House. Every single State House district is up next year, and the new term limits rule may impact some things since reps can now serve 12 years in the legislature – not just three terms in the House and two in the Senate. Term limits is now after six terms in the House if the rep decides not to run for State Senate.

The good news is that R’s only need to flip two seats to get majority. The bad news is that R’s need to win all the defenses to be one away from a tie. While MRP is a disaster right now, they do not have much of a factor with these State House races. The major organization involved here is HRCC (Caucus).

These are the potentially competitive defenses in the State House 15% or less wins – The maps are for 2016/2020 Composite, not State House numbers:

HD-28 – Jamie Thompson (R)

2022 – R – 50.99%, D – 49.01%

DRA Composite 16/20 48.8%-48.6%D

Jamie is one of the 2022 bright spots. She took formerly D, now R Trump areas in Monroe County by about 1700. She won the must win areas of Woodhaven and Rockwood. She won Flat Rock by 400. That makes up for the major D areas of Brownstown Twp (lost by 700, no shame), and the bluest part of Taylor (lost by 700). There’s a big target on her back. Downriver is competitive, but it’s still ancestrally democrat. Jamie has a knack of surviving the targeted hits against her during the last campaign. If she continues to work hard, be seen in her community, and gets to the community events, I like her chances at re-election.

HD-29 – James DeSana (R)

2022 – R – 51.48%, D – 48.52%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.3%-47.7%R

DeSana cleaned up in Monroe County and in Huron Twp (long the most R part of Downriver outside of affluent Grosse Ile). He lost big the Romulus and Taylor portions (which were his opponent’s old district). DeSana’s district is about 1-2% to the right of Thompson’s, but his record is closer to someone in a 60-40 type of district. I expect a big target here, although he will probably survive if he doesn’t get smoked in Taylor. I’m more worried about him than I am about Jamie Thompson.

HD-42 – Matt Hall (R)

2022 – R – 54.99%, D – 45.01%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 52.6-44.1%R

This was a closer election than I thought. Hall only lost Plainwell narrowly (historically dem), Galesburg narrowly, and the one Kalamazoo Twp precinct, but Comstock Twp (home of Bell’s Brewery) was kept close to 50/50. If Comstock starts going the way of Oshtemo west of Kalamazoo, we will have some problems here. Hall’s the minority leader, so he might have some troubles that other reps wouldn’t have. Jace Bolger nearly lost a district similar to this back in 2012.

HD-46 – Kathy Schmaltz (R)

2022 – R – 54.37%, D – 45.63%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.4-47.4%D

This will be probably our toughest defense. The dems abandoned this district when their young punk nominee had too many skeletons. I don’t expect Schmaltz to get a free pass next time. This was another Washtenaw gerrymander. I expect the D’s 46% here to be a floor, not a ceiling. Schmaltz took all of the Jackson Couny areas big outside of the City of Jackson, which she lost by 740. The dem’s only got 54% in Jackson City. That’s rare. It’s usually in the upper 50’s, sometimes 60%. D’s still took the Washtenaw portion. Chelsea has a lot of AWFLs. Sylvan Twp was barely D, but Chelsea itself went 2051-1156 – even with the D’s abandoning their candidate. Chelsea is the home of Purple Rose Theater run by Jeff Daniels. It’s also a bedroom community for Ann Arbor liberals who want a small town big on the arts. Chelsea is perfect for them. Schmaltz has her work cut out for her.

HD-49 – Ann Bollin (R)

2022 – R – 55.78%, D – 44.22%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 53.7-43.7%R

Whitmer won this district last election which shows how much of a wave there was in Oakland County (and Brighton City). Wixom, Walled Lake, Novi portion, Commerce Twp portion and City of Brighton all turned heavily against Dixon last election. Luckily there’s still a solid R core with Brighton Township, Green Oak Township, and the northern part of Lyon Township. Ann should be fine, but this isn’t the old district solely in Livingston County anymore. The main blue base is the area just south of Pontiac Trail in Wixom/Novi. The Wixom portion has the cheap rent Village Apartments. That dominates the big blue precinct that is otherwise mostly industrial outside of some condos by Grand River. East of there is similar type areas to the “Village” in Novi in that small darker blue precinct. Walled Lake is swingish and always has been. The Commerce precinct I think is still red, although it borders some blue areas. The other light blue Wixom precinct is downtown. Lyon Township is fast growing and we need to keep pace there. City of Brighton is the “light red” part, but it’s the bluest part of Livingston County. Trump won it twice, but barely. Obama won it in 08. There’s a lot of new apartments and townhouses going up there. I don’t think that does Rs many favors. Luckily for Ann, Green Oak is still solid, and Brighton Township is still one of the strongest areas in Livingston County. Those two areas can carry a district on their own for the most part, but I’d rather not get into a position where we have to depend on them to do all the heavy lifting.

HD-51 – Matt Maddock (R)

2022 R – 57.79%, D – 42.21%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 58.7-38.7%R

This is slightly over 15% of a difference, but I put it on here since Matt Maddock is beloved by his base and despised by the dems and R establishment. With White Lake and Highland in the district, I don’t see a path for the dems to take out Maddock, but the dems have the same opinion of Maddock as we have of Mallory McMorrow, Dayna Polehanki, and Noah Arbit. Matt lost Milford Village. He did win all the other precincts however. His wife Meshawn Maddock is one of the “alternate electors” charged by Dana Nessel. I think it’s a BS case, but it’s still going to effect this district directly because of her husband being a State Rep and a lightning rod for the dems. Milford Twp will be interesting to watch here, along with the Commerce portion.

HD-54 – Donni Steele (R)

2022 – R – 51.17%, D – 48.83%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.1-47.6%R

Orion saved the day in this backwards C shaped district in Oakland County Steele won the Oakland Twp portion by 550, Bloomfield Hills by 230, and Orion Township by 2500. She lost Auburn Hills by 1300 and Bloomfield Township portion by about 1000. R’s need to stop the bleeding in the Bloomfields and Auburn Hills and not lose ground in Orion Township. This will be a tough defense.

HD-55 – Mark Tisdel (R)

2022 – R – 51.89%, D – 48.20

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.7-48.1%R

The most impressive 2022 defense may have been right there in the Rochesters in Oakland County. Tisdel narrowly won all municipalities here. This will be a major battle in 2024. Biden and Whitmer both won this district.

HD-57 – Thomas Kuhn (R)

2022 – R – 52.64%, D – 47.36%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.3-47.6%R

The commission crossed the cultural barrier of Dequindre Road between Oakland and Macomb County. Kuhn was from the Oakland side, but was able to win the Sterling Heights (quintessential swing city) by 2400. He lost the Madison Heights precinct by 150, and the Troy portion by about 500. As long as Sterling Heights doesn’t go back to the Obama numbers, we should survive here, but that is a fickle city when it comes to elections.

HD-62 – Alicia St Germaine (R)

2022 – R – 53.42%, D – 46.58%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.9-47.3%R

This was a big win and a bright spot for Rs in a bad year. St Germaine won the Chesterfield Twp portion by 1000 and Harrison Twp by 2400. The swingish areas of Fraser she won by 80 and St Clair Shores she won by 700. That makes up for the 180 vote loss in Roseville and the D base part of Clinton Twp (portion south of Mt Clemens) she lost by 1100.

HD-68 – David Martin (R)

2022 – R – 54.72%, D – 45.28%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.4-46.8%R

If we had 110 David Martin types as candidates, we’d have the majority by a good margin. This guy is one of the best candidates and campaigners I’ve seen. He’s a veteran who shows up to work, does his job, doesn’t play games with people, is inoffensive, and is straight forward. He looks like a union guy, which helps in this district. The Oakland County part of this district is base R Groveland Township. Martin won that 2-1 and by 1000 votes. He also won Atlas Twp, a base R area in Genesee County by 1500. The tougher areas also went for Martin. He won (most of) historically democrat Burton by 4 votes. Game over. Dems can’t win the district without winning Burton. Davison City and Twp went for the hometown Martin. The Genesee Twp portion went for Martin. Even the Grand Blanc Twp portion went to Martin. Only GB City went for the dems by about 300. That was new territory for Martin. This district would not be competitive in 2012, but R’s now can win in Davison and Burton.

HD-86 – Nancy DeBoer (R)

2022 – R – 56.13%, D – 43.81%

DRA Composite – 52.3-44.6%R

Holland isn’t the Holland of the George W Bush era. The Lakeshore communities have moved a bit to the left with affluent white liberals moving there from Chicago, Ann Arbor, East Lansing, and other places. In addition, there’s a large Hispanic population in Holland itself. In addition, the old Dutch Establishment is not Trump friendly at all. They are more like Betsy DeVos and Gerry Ford Republicans which despise vulgarness and don’t care much for brashness. We’re seeing that play out right now with local party fighting between the moderate old guard which supported much of the COVID restrictions and Ottawa Impact which is more libertarian or populist. Nancy DeBoer is the former Holland Mayor and won by a good margin here. She won the Ottawa suburbs of Holland of Holland Township and Park Township. She lost the Ottawa Part of Holland by 600, but won the Allegan part of Holland by 540. Laketown Township in Allegan County is still blood red and she won that easily. This is district to watch in the future. I think we’ll be okay if we don’t blow it in candidate quality, but the Ottawa Impact-old guard battles could cause issues here. I can see one of their types losing this district. This isn’t Zeeland or Hudsonville. This is a more moderate area.

HD-88 – Greg Van Woerkom (R)

2022 – R – 56.30%, D – 41.88%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 54.4-42.6%R

The Ottawa Lakeshore is not what it was pre-2008 with Grand Haven getting much bluer, but the rest of the area is still solid. Norton Shores, a Muskegon suburb, is quite competitive. Greg Van Woerkom’s father (Gerald) was a state rep in a swing district covering the Muskegon suburbs including Norton Shores. Greg has an easier district, but not a gimme with the lakeshore trends. Greg won Norton Shores by 1400. Trump won it twice narrowly, but Mitt Romney lost Norton Shores. The dems need Norton Shores to win the district. Van Woerkom won the rest of the district easily outside of the now solidly democrat (since 2008) Grand Haven. Grand Haven is a yuppie Lake Michigan vacation area and moving left like similar towns like Saugatuck, South Haven, parts of Leelanau County, Traverse City, Petoskey and New Buffalo. The eastern townships should save us here in tough years, but keeping Norton Shores to a draw or better is a must.

HD-92 – Jerry Neyer (R)

2022 – R – 55.53%, D – 42.41%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.8-46.1%R

Mt Pleasant is the home of Central Michigan University and is a blue stronghold along with Union Township surrounding it, but the rest of the district moved red since the Obama years. D’s nearly took a similar district about 3-5 times since 1998, but came up just short every time. The goal is simple for Rs. Run the score up in the rural areas (which were not strongly R until recently), win Ithaca and St Louis, and fight to a draw in Alma. Neyer exceeded it and won everywhere except Mt Pleasant (where all Rs get smoked) and Union Twp (surrounds Mt Pleasant). Chippewa Twp (Native Americans) is swingish to light blue, but voted for Neyer (and Trump). Alma is a swing to light blue town and the home of small Alma college. Trump did win it narrowly twice, while Obama won it easily. Romney might have lost this entire district losing Isabella County overall, Alma, St Louis, and Ithaca. It’s moved in our direction, but Mt Pleasant can carry the dems much of the way home on its own.

HD-96 – Timothy Beson (R)

2022 – R – 55.32%, D – 44.68%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.5-46.4%R

This district wasn’t even competitive at all until 2016. It still took the right candidate to flip. Beson is one of the best candidates I’ve met. He finally flipped the Bay City district. I think he could probably defeat Kristen McDonald Rivet or win the open congressional seat if he decides to run for State Senate or Congress. The fight in this district is the suburbs. Bangor Twp, Monitor Twp, Essexville, Hampton Twp, and Portsmouth Twp. Bay City is a battle in terms of margin. If the dems get 60% here, they’ll take the district most likely. Beeson got 42-43% in Bay City. He lost Essexville narrowly. He won Hampton Twp narrowly. He won the rest of the suburbs easily. Romney lost Bangor, Hampton, Portsmouth, and Essexville in 2012 (along with the Pinconning area in another district). Trump won them all twice. This is a must keep seat to get majority. I’m confident Beson can hold it.

HD-107 – Neil Friske (R)

2022 – R – 56.59%, D – 43.41%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 56.8%-40.5%

I’m a little surprised to see this district within 15%. Friske is hated by the dems, but I thought this district was redder than it was on composite. Friske only lost the City of Charlevoix (Trump/Biden vacation town), Peine Twp in Charlevoix County (Island in Lake Michigan that Trump won twice), St James Twp (Island in Lake MI Trump lost twice), the City of Sault Ste Marie (Obama/Trump city), Harbor Springs (Rich vacation town that voted Trump/Biden), was blown out in Petoskey (rich vacation town Trump lost twice), and Mackinac Island. Friske won St Ignace, which is a swing area. I don’t see a path for the dems to take this district since Gary McDowell ran up the score in the UP in a somewhat similar district. If the dems start getting more coastal townships around Charlevoix, Petoskey, Harbor Springs, and Mackinaw City and also win the Boyne area, St Ignace, and the Soo, there might be a path. I don’t see it yet, as long as the dems continue to be the abortion on demand party. Petoskey is becoming Traverse City North, but it’s not that yet and doesn’t have the college population either. Chicago and Ann Arbor retirees could make Charlevoix, Boyne, Petoskey, Torch Lake, and Harbor Springs more interesting though.

These are the potentially competitive offenses in the State House – 15% or less losses:

HD-20 – Noah Arbit (D)

2022 – D – 56.64%, R – 43.36%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 56-42%D

This is certainly a longshot, but it’s worth investing in due to strictly the jackass factor. Noah Arbit is one of the most annoying individuals in the D Legislature. The right candidate can give Noah a headache. Arbit’s base is West Bloomfield, which he won by 6000. He lost the Bloomfield Twp precinct (which is the light blue one in the NE corner), which shows some weakness on Arbit’s part. Arbit lost all except one of the Commerce precincts. He did win Keego Harbor and Sylvan Lake. If the R’s are going to win this, they need to clean up in all “non West Bloomfield” areas, win the Northern part of West Bloomfield, and narrow the losses in the southern portion of the township.

HD-21 – Kelly Breen (D)

2022 – D – 56.43%, R – 42.27%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 54-44%D

This is a seat that was lost under better borders (Lyon Township, South Lyon, Novi) in 2020. Now while it loses part of Novi, it also loses most of Lyon Twp and picks up a little bit of Farmington Hills/Farmington which is tougher territory. Breen won everywhere except in Lyon Township. This would have been very competitive at late as 2016. Just as realignment benefits us in Eastern Genesee County, it hurts us in the old Thad McCotter areas – Novi, Northville, Canton, (lesser extent) Livonia, (lesser extent) and Commerce.

HD-22 – Matt Koleszar (D)

2022 – D – 54.25%, R – 45.75%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49.2-48.6%D

Cathryn Neracher gave it a run without caucus support against the MEA’s (Teacher’s union) favorite Democrat. She worked hard, but Koleszar’s MEA connections, caucus support, and Whitmer cleaning up the area was too much to get past. If Tudor kept it within 5% statewide, we may have been looking at different results here (since caucus probably would have gotten involved then). Koleszar won all areas last election. I know some Rs are pushing veteran Rob Donovic out of Livonia to run.

HD-27 – Jamie Churches (D)

2022 – D – 50.78%, R – 49.22%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 49-48.4%R

I think this is possibly our best chance to flip a seat. Jamie is not an old school moderate, but a radical MEA shrill who is way out of the mainstream. Churches barely won last election against Bob Howey who survived a difficult primary. Howey took Gibralter, Grosse Ile, and Trenton. Churches won Southgate by 800, the must win area of Riverview, and her home of Wyandotte by 1300.

HD-31 – Reggie Miller (D)

2022 – D – 52.26%, R – 47.74%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 51-46.2%D

This is the toughest of the “swingish” Downriver/Monroe districts to flip. This map is deceiving. Biniecki won most areas. He took the Lenawee township 2-1 and by 219 and the Monroe part by around 2900. The Washtenaw part went D by around 250. Augusta Twp is swingish, and Milan is blue. Wayne County is the issue. Biniecki took Sumpter Twp by abound 400 which almost offsets the Belleville City loss of 450. That means the D’s needed to take the Romulus portion and Van Buren Twp by slightly under 3000. Reggie Miller did that. The Romulus portion went D only by 140, but Van Buren saved the day. It’s a major D stronghold of airport workers and went D by almost 5000 votes, leaving no doubt. R’s need to make some inroads there with Black voters to have a shot.

HD-38 – Joey Andrews (D)

2022 – D – 51.79%, R – 48.21%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 51.3-46.2%D

This was the infamous “Lakeshore” community of interest that decided that the “gay capitol” of West Michigan Saugatuck/Douglas and post-industrial Black Majority Benton Harbor have the same interests outside of electing democrats. Kevin Whiteford made it close, but that one two punch along with D leaning South Haven and New Buffalo (both known for Chicago vacationers) was too much to overcome.It’s winnable in a good year.

HD-44 – Jim Haadsma (D)

2022 – D-52.25%, R – 47.75%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 48.7-47.9%D

This was round 3 I believe of the Haadsma/Morgan race. This is always going to be a difficult race to win as long as Battle Creek and Albion are in the same district as it is a 1-2 punch for the dems. It’s winnable however with the right candidate. Battle Creek is a lean D city, but it isn’t like Lansing or Kalamazo. Albion is a small college town that also has a large Black population.

HD-48 – Jennifer Conlin (D)

2002 – D – 53.08%, R – 45.80%

DRA Composite 16/20 – 50.6-40.7%D

My gerrymandered district is the infamous “middle finger” shaped district that combines Hamburg Twp, Genoa Township, and Pinckney/Putnam in Livingston County, Waterloo Twp in Jackson County, and part of the City of Ann Arbor north of the river. I don’t know what the “community of interest” is here, but that’s what the commission wanted for us. Caucus didn’t get involved in this race last time. That’s a sore spot for Jason Woolford and Rs in Livingston County, many of whom do not care much for Ann Arbor (and many A2Ds don’t like Livingston County either). The strategy here is to run up the score in base areas, and lose by less in the other areas. Jason Woolford won the Jackson and Livingston portions big. Waterloo was won by 300, Genoa by 2400 (good, but not enough), Hamburg by 850 (better than others in a bad year, not good enough), and Putnam/Pinckney by 250. That’s about a 3800 cushion without Washtenaw. Woolford did take competitive Northfield Twp by 50 votes. That’s a 3850 cushion now. He lost the three must win areas. Lyndon Twp (by 65, Webster Twp (by 750), and Dexter Twp (by 600). A slightly under 2400 vote cushion against Ann Arbor isn’t going to cut it. Ann Arbor Twp portion went 2-1D and slightly under 500 votes for the dems. The City portion was about 86%D and to the dems by 5600 votes. The only path to winning I see for Rs is to run the score up in Livingston/Jackson, take Northfield by a good margin, and win at least two of Lyndon/Dexter/Webster Townships to survive the massacre in the city.

HD-58 – Nate Shannon (D)

2002 – D – 51.32%, R – 48.66%

DRA Composite – 49.6-47.7%R

This was the one that surprised many including myself. Nate Shannon is a survivor of tough campaigns. Macomb has major infighting, and I think it cost us this seat. Shannon lost the Shelby Twp portion by 400, which is good by D standards. He won the Sterling Heights part by 600. There’s the game, as Warren wasn’t needed. He lost Utica by 200. That’s usually a close area. Shannon won Warren by 900. It ended up being a 1000 vote difference. If Macomb gets its act together, we should win this. That’s a big if.

HD-61 – Denise Mentzer (D)

2002 – D – 52.03%, R – 47.97%

DRA Composite – 50-47.3%D

Clinton Township has often been fools gold for Rs. Mentzer won it by about 600, even though the worst precincts are in a different district. Mt Clemens is a D base area and she won it by 1500. The Sterling Heights area went R by about 500, but that wasn’t going to make up for Mt Clemens. Rs have a chance if they win the Clinton Twp portion by 500 or so votes.

HD-73 – Julie Brixie (D)

2022 – D – 57.33%, R – 42.67%

DRA Composite – 54.4-42.8%D

Norm Shinkle ran a respectable campaign for this district and kept Brixie under 60% in a disastrous year in Whitmer’s home of Ingham County. The problem here is MSU campus in East Lansing (2400 vote deficit), and Meridian Twp South of GR (5100 vote deficit). The only chance for an upset here is for Rs to run up the score in the rural areas, win Mason (leans D), win Williamston (leans D), win Alaiedon Twp (swingish), and lose by less in Meridian and East Lansing. That likely only happens in a 2010 type wave year.

HD-76 – Angela Witwer (D)

2022 – D – 55.75%, R – 44.25%

DRA Composite – 50.3-46.6%D

Witwer was a strong incumbent, although is now caught up in a lobbyist scandal. Tom Barrett had a seat similar to this from 2014-2018. This is the swingiest of swing seats and hasn’t changed much with redistricting. R’s had it from 2010-2012. D’s had it from 2012-2014 with Theresa Abed. Tom Barrett defeated Abed in 2014 and held it until he ran for St Senate in 2018. Angela Witwer won it narrowly twice and by a bigger margin last time when the Rs didn’t spend money there. The D base is Delta Township and the small part of Lansing in this district. The swing areas are Charlotte City and Windsor Twp. Rs need to run up the score the rurals, win Windsor Twp and Charlotte (Barrett did in 2014), and not get destroyed in Delta Township.

HD-80 – Phil Skaggs (D)

2022 – D – 56.30%, R – 43.70%

DRA Composite – 53.8-43.5%D

The Grand Rapids area was gerrymandered badly and Skaggs is a particularly nasty dem which is what I expect to come out of the Rich White Liberal enclave of East Grand Rapids. Skaggs lost Casecade Twp by 900, but it didn’t matter. He took East Grand Rapids by 2000, GR City portion by 700, GR Township portion by 250, and Kentwood by 3200. This district would have been competitive in 2012, but it’s lean dem today.

HD-81 – Rachel Hood (D)

2022 – D – 55.57%, R – 44.33%

DRA Composite – 51.8-44.9%D

GR seat 2. This attaches part of the City of Grand Rapids with suburbs. R’s won Ada by 800, GR Twp portion by 150, and the Plainfield Twp portion by 500. That’s underwhelming, but still a win. Hood won GR City portion by 5700. It wasn’t close.

HD-83 – John Fitzgerald (D)

2022 – D – 52.76%, R – 44.64%

DRA Composite – 50.5-45.4%D

If there’s one GR area seat where I like our odds for an upset, it’s this one – but that’s if we have a good Hispanic (preferably Mexican) candidate. This was also sneakily gerrymandered. The Rs did take the one Byron Twp precinct by 25. The dems took Wyoming by 1500. The sneakily gerrymandered part is the 2 1/3 Grand Rapids City precincts there. The dems took that by 900 – not much less than Wyoming overall. This is winnable if Rs can make enough inroads with Mexicans and thread the needle.

HD-84 – Carol Glanville (D)

2022 – D – 55.56%, R – 44.44%D

DRA Composite – 50.3-45.9%D

Thank you Robert RJ Regan for your special election run earlier this year. /sarcasm. That put us in a hole here going into the general. The GR portion is always going to be tough. R’s lost it by 6400. R’s took Grandville by 1000 and Walker by 900. That’s not good enough.

HD-103 – Betsy Coffia (D)

2022 – D – 49.84%, R – 48.47%

DRA Composite – 48.8-48.6%D

The dems got their perfect gerrymander here. Blueing Leelanau County combined with Traverse City without the blood red rural portions of Grand Traverse County. A lot of Chicago and Ann Arbor retirees are moving to Traverse City and Leelanau County. Traverse City also has a small college which impacts things as well. It’s a growing area with expensive homes and not a ton of high paying jobs. The old saying is that “you pay for the view” meaning Lake Michigan or Grand Traverse Bay. It’s a beautiful area, but a lot of people aren’t fans of the new crowd and townie/tourist clashes occur. Coffia beat sort-of-incumbent Jack O’Malley by 700 votes. O’Malley is a moderate who represented Leelanau and Benzie, but not Traverse County. O’Malley lost Leelanu by 38 votes and won the Benzie part by 350. The Grand Traverse County portion did him in. He lost critical Garfield Township narrowly, lost Peninsula Twp narrowly (Old Mission), and got blown out of the water in Traverse City. Traverse City went 65% for Biden which makes Garfield, Elmwood Twp (in Leelanau), Old Mission Peninsula, East Bay, and Acme critical areas to win and/or run up the score.

HD-109 – Jenn Hill (D)

2022 – D – 52.98%, R – 47.02%

DRA Composite – 50.4-46.7%

I’m not an expert on this district. The only place I’ve been to in this district is Munising. It may be my state, but Marquette is about the same drive for me as Knoxville, TN is.

The R’s went for a seat similar to this a few times, which was unthinkable until 2016. It was forever a “safe” democrat seat, and now is down to a lean democrat area. Jenn Hill is probably way too liberal for MOST of the district, but that might not matter. Alger County is historically blue, but flipped R in 2012 even with Romney. Trump won every part of Alger in 2020 and all except Grand Island and Mathias Twp in 2016. Hill lost Mathias, tied Grand Island, and won Munising big. Hill lost Alger County by a little less than 600 votes. The R’s cleaned up the Baraga County portion except Spurr Township (Trump/Biden Township), losing that by 11 votes. R’s won it by about 900 votes. The Dickinson County portion was a flat out blowout for Rs. About 1100 votes. That leaves about a 2600 cushion going into Marquette County. That’s not good enough. Hill won Marquette County by about 5000 votes. That’s your difference.

Marquette is still a D stronghold in my opinion. It’s consistently in the low-mid 40’s with Rs unable to get that last 6-7%. Trump got 43 and 44% in Marquette County – actually winning less townships with 44% than with 43% due to 3rd party votes. He did 1-2% better than Romney and 5-6% better than McCain. Bush got 43 and 45% in Marquette County. Third party votes mask some of the R weaknesses in Marquette County. Marquette has long been the most liberal part of the UP. Beyond the legacy UP Democrat “pork barrel” tradition you see with Gogebic County, Ishpeming and Negaunee are still union strongholds (and likely Marquette commuters today). Marquette itself is the home of Northern Michigan University. It’s a college town as well as a union town.

Hill won Champion Twp, Chocolay Twp (Trump/Biden), Ishpeming (blowout win), Ishpeming Twp (Trump won twice), Marquette (probably 70% and by 2400 votes), Marquette Twp (big), Negaunee (big), Negaunee Twp (Trump/Biden), Powell Twp (Trump/Biden), Richmond Twp (big), and Tilden Twp (Trump twice). If R’s are going to flip this district, they need a candidate to run the score up in the rest of the counties, and probably win most if not all of the areas Trump won at least once to have a chance. R’s need to also “lose by less” in Marquette, Ishpeming, and Negaunee, as well as their neighboring townships. It’s possible, but it won’t be easy,. especially with Northern Michigan University.

OVERALL

If the R’s keep all their districts, they need to win two. If they lost one (like the Jackson/Chelsea district they were gifted in 2022,) they would need three to get majority. I’d go on offense anywhere it is fesible, but I’d certainly target Jaime Churches (Downriver), Nate Shannon (Macomb), and Angela Witwer (lobbyist scandal) for starters. Joey Andrews could be a good target over the local control votes recently. Conlin and Haadsma are beatable as well if the base gets out and vote. There’s a path to win the majority. Caucus groups (much more important than MRP who hasn’t been historically involved in State Rep races), are going to be big here. Candidate quality will also be big. I think we can flip the State House thanks to overreach, but the Top of the Ticket will be the main factor – good and bad.