Political Roundup for June 19th, 2017

About last night: Over the weekend Emmanuelle Macron’s new En Marche! party got a majority of the seats in the French parliamentary election, coming in at the lower end of expectations.

Tomorrow is special election day. Be sure to check back here at 3p ET today for our preview and at 7p ET tomorrow for our liveblog of the special generals for GA-06 and SC-05. Now, onto the news!


Landrieu: File this one under either ‘columnists don’t understand psephology’ or ‘someone had too many hurricanes on Bourbon Street just before a deadline.’ Apparently, a few Democrats are floating New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu’s (D) name as a possible presidential candidate. Oy. Here we go. For the next few years we’re going to get just about every reasonably-prominent Democrat in the country who does something half-noteable (in this case, a speech on the removal of Confederate monuments) run through the machinery of the Great Mentioner for at least a week or so. Never mind that Landrieu isn’t even the mayor of a mega-city, let alone a senator, governor, or even a celebrity businessman. No, he’s just the mayor of a reasonably-large city in a country full of them. But, The Hill needs something to write about, and stories about presidential campaigns, real or imagined, get clicks. Expect more of this drivel for a few years. Maybe a few of them will actually make also-ran status.

Kander: …And just as I say that, another one drops. At least this article is more intelligently written than the first one. It’s premise is just as stupid, though. Is former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) a rising star? Yes. Is he making the rounds that presidential hopefuls make? That’s certainly so. Does he have a snowball’s chance in Hades of becoming President this cycle? Hell no (unless he succeeds Sen. Claire McCaskill first). His performance against Sen. Roy Blunt (R) last year was impressive, though some of it can be put down to Blunt’s ineptitude and lack of likability. As the article rightly points out, Kander has nothing to run for that he could conceivably win unless Sen. McCaskill (D) steps aside. Therefore, he’s making the speaking circuit. I doubt it’s about more than keeping himself relevant. Most politicians have delusions of grandeur, but if he believes he’s going to be nominated for President in 2020 with no office in between, someone should stick him in a psych ward. Another day, another DC journalist has a deadline, another ridiculous presidential Great Mentioner story…


GA-06: Ahead of tomorrow’s special election, WSB-TV/Landmark has Han Solo impersonator John Ossoff (D) up two points over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R). RRH currently rates this race as Lean D.

NE-02: Is former Rep. Brad Ashford (D) a one-term wonder, or a comeback kid? If that was one of the burning questions that you’ve been dying to know, rejoice! You’re probably about to find out. Ashford has announced a revenge run against the man who beat him in 2016, now-Rep. Don Bacon (R). He’s probably the Democrats’ most credible candidate, and could certainly win in a wave. Still, I’m skeptical. Who wouldn’t vote for more bacon?

WA-03: You have to give former State House nominee Teresa Purcell (D) credit for one thing: confidence. Even though she lost a state house seat that Democrats had held for decades and is currently under investigation by the (Democratic) state attorney general for reporting violations, she still wants to run for Congress. If I were Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler (R), though, I’d definitely want Purcell to make Top Two.


KS-Gov: If at first you don’t beat a Democrat in Kansas… try again? Former State Sen. and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett (R) seems to think so. He’s launching a second bid for the office, this time to succeed Gov. Sam Brownback (R).

PA-Gov: This one might be a record. Just days after entering the gubernatorial race, businessman Kris Hart (R) is exiting it. Why, you ask? Because, Pennsylvania has a ludicrous seven-year residency requirement for anyone who wants to be Governor of the Commonwealth. Hart likely wouldn’t have gotten very far, and he only arrived in the state in May. Still, seven years is a tad much for a residency requirement.

VA-Gov: The first real general election poll for this year’s contest in Virginia couldn’t be more exciting. It’s a tie, 46-46, or so says Harper Polling. They did pretty well last cycle, though they tend to have a Republican lean. Both candidates are viewed pretty favorably. It will be interesting to see how those numbers shift as the race progresses and attacks are likely to start flying.


CA-SD-29: Naughty, naughty *wags finger*. California Democrats, fearful that State Sen. Josh Newman (D) would be successfully recalled, changed the rules mid-stream. They slipped a change into the budget requiring the recall to be held at the next general election, likely boosting turnout for the race. Something tells me that they’ll eventually regret this, but that’s politics for you.

CO-Leg: Some people really like to burn money. Take the people featured in this article, for instance; they want to recruit candidates to run under a ‘Centrist’ banner against incumbents of both parties in the Colorado Legislature. Their goal is to beat five incumbents and hold the balance of power in the legislature. The article makes several sound critiques of this plan. The biggest hole in the scheme, though, is that any third party candidate only succeeds in freak circumstances or with established personal popularity. Anyone who gives these people money might as well douse the cash in gasoline and throw a lit match at it.

IN-Redistrict: Here’s a piece talking about the fact that Indiana will likely lose a congressional district in the future. That’s mildly interesting in and of itself. However, what’s more interesting is who the author is: Christina Hale. I said she’d stick around, and she has. This is exactly the kind of ‘talking seriously about the state’s problems’ piece that politicians write when they’re in the wilderness and building up their positive credit for a comeback.

WI-SC: Justice Michael Gableman, a member of the conservative wing on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, will not seek a second ten-year term on that body. There is speculation that he may step down early to give Gov. Scott Walker (R) a chance to appoint his replacement. The court is currently split 5-2 in favor of the conservative faction.


Weekend Open Thread for June 16-18, 2017

First off, check back tomorrow morning for a preview and open thread for the UT-3 GOP convention. France has its legislative runoffs on Sunday. Only 4 out of 577 seats were decided in the first round last week, but President Emmanuel Macron’s corporate-liberal centrist En Marche (Let’s Go) party is projected to win around 3/4 of the seats in the runoffs.

Next, we are making the following ratings change ahead of next week’s elections: GA-6 goes to Lean D from Lean R. SC-5 remains at Safe R.

And now this week’s questions:

1. Do additional precautions need to be taken with regards to the security of members of Congress?

2. In general, do you see hyperbolic and emotional rhetoric in politics as a problem?

And because it’s the weekend, we’re thankful for the heroic and professional police officers who prevented a greater tragedy this week, unlike say, the one you see HERE.


UT-3 Conventions Preview & Open Thread

Results Update: In something of a surprise, Herrod has bested Henderson on the last ballot. The August 15 primary will now be between Herrod, Ainge, and Curtis. The Democrats, as expected, nominated physician Kathryn Allen.

(This post is a collaboration between me and Jon Henrik Gilhuus – thanks to him for writing much of this preview!)

Republicans are holding their special convention today for UT-3, a very Republican (but Trump-unfriendly) seat around Provo which will be vacated in two weeks by Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R). UT-3 covers the southeast quarter of the state, but substantially all the population is in the Provo area and its suburbs, along with a small slice of southern Salt Lake City exurbs. The convention opens at Noon ET, with results expected sometime in the mid-to-late afternoon. A special election has been set for Nov. 7, with a primary on Aug. 15. Utah recently changed from its mandatory-convention system, in which a primary was only held between the top two convention finishers if neither took 60%, to a more normal system where candidates can petition their way onto the primary ballot.

Tanner Ainge

As a result, the convention is more like a MN or CO contest, where the party endorsement is nice to have (and a boost to a candidate’s chances in the primary) but it is not mandatory to get on to the ballot. Also, unlike before, only the convention winner (even without a 60% supermajority) gets a primary ballot spot. Thus, the convention will winnow the field significantly, since the deadline for gathering signatures was this Monday (though there is word that deadline, being before the seat was actually open, may be subject to a legal challenge). Two candidates, Provo Mayor John Curtis (R) and lawyer Tanner Ainge (R) have gathered enough signatures to continue on to the primary regardless of the convention result, meaning the primary will be at minimum a two-way and at most a three-way race. Curtis will compete for the convention endorsement as well, while Ainge is skipping today.

John Curtis

In addition to Curtis, there seem to be four other major candidates in the convention. But as Mayor of Provo since 2009, Curtis is probably the candidate with the highest name recognition.  He turned in a very impressive 15,000 signatures; more than twice the necessary number. These two factors may convince a majority of today’s delegates to eventually support him, but he should probably not be seen as the frontrunner at the convention. Curtis was a Democrat from 2000 until 2006, during which time he ran for State Senate and was even County chair for a period. If that’s not enough to throw suspicion on his conservatism, his two terms as Mayor has meant that he’s had to compromise on ideological purity many times. His decision to gather signatures has also diminished his stature with quite a few delegates, who see themselves as the guarantor of party purity.

Deidre Henderson

The favorite at the convention is thought to be State Sen. Deidre Henderson (R). She was first elected to the Senate in 2012, having started her political career as a volunteer for Chaffetz when he first ran in 2008. Henderson is generally considered one of the most libertarian members of the Senate, having promoted business-friendly legislation and transparency. Her relative youth and telegenic appearance should also help her today.

Margaret Dayton

Henderson’s most prominent rival is thought to be State Sen. Margaret Dayton (R). Dayton is the longest serving female member of the Utah Legislature, having been a State Rep for ten years before ousting an incumbent GOP Senator in 2006. She is usually ranked among the top (social) conservatives in the Senate and locally she is nicknamed “The Iron Lady”. These are traits likely to endear her to the delegates, but her advanced age might give them pause, as 68 is a bit late to be starting a House career.

Chris Herrod

The most antiestablishment major candidate is ex-State Rep. Chris Herrod (R), Herrod was appointed to the House in 2007, when he beat out none other than John Curtis for the job. Herrod ran against Senator Orin Hatch in 2012, but was eliminated at the convention. In 2016 he ran and lost against incumbent GOP State Sen. Curt Bramble – the man Curtis lost against as a Democrat in 2000. Politically, Herrod is perhaps the most critical of illegal immigration of the major candidates and in manner and choice of words, he is probably also the one closest to Donald Trump. Herrod’s antiestablishment leanings could cut either way depending on the makeup of the delegate pool; while he is probably a long-shot, a favorable delegate pool could propel him to victory.

Brad Daw

The final candidate with political experience is State Rep. Brad Daw (R). Daw was first elected to the State House in 2004, but lost the nomination in 2012 before winning his seat back in 2014. Daw was County chair in the 1990s, so he has some organizational experience and contacts. However, though he is a serious contender, he is not expected to win, unless some of the other candidates need a compromise choice to fall back on.

Debbie Aldrich

Among the six minor candidates, we have maybe to or three with an outside chance of winning. Attorney and veteran Stewart Peay (R) has the endorsement of Ann Romney, who is an aunt of his wife. The fairly libertarian Peay could have some support in an area where Romney is a veritable folk hero. Pundit and activist Debbie Aldrich (R) runs a local Friends of Israel group and seems to be more Trump-friendly than most Utahns; she might have some base among Trumpists. Finally, former Congressional staffer Damian Kidd (R) originally declared his candidacy for this seat back in January, originally intending to run against Chaffetz, so he may have some organization. His sole political experience seems to be as an aide to then Congressman, now Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho.

The other minor candidates are defense contractor Paul Fife (R), activist and roadside assistance operator Keith Kuder (R), and IRS employee and disability activist Shayne Row (R). Remember that in conventions, there is always a small but significant chance that someone comes out of nowhere to win by giving a great speech – we have seen that happen too many times to discount the possibility here. Thus, don’t think that the candidates with the biggest stature are necessarily the prohibitive favorites.

Kathie Allen

The Democrats are also nominating today, at roughly the same time as the GOP. The overwhelming favorite seems to be physician Kathie Allen (D), who has so far raised almost 700K, although most of it from before Chaffetz announced his resignation. She has been active with the Utah Medical Association and has been involved in Democratic campaigns since the mid 70s.

With her financial and organizational lead she should be favored over the two other candidates, health worker and activist Ben Frank (D) and biologist and environmental activist Carl Ingwell (D). They’ve raised less than 10K between them and at a recent debate they took some potshots at Allens prolific fundraising, claiming that she didn’t really have a political program, only money. These accusations are not likely to stick, but as with the GOP side, conventions are strange beasts and an upset can not be counted out altogether.


Political Roundup for June 16, 2017

We continue to keep Rep. Steve Scalise (R) in our thoughts and prayers. As of yesterday evening, he was still in critical condition but was said to have improved in the previous 24 hours. He underwent a second surgery yesterday, will require more surgeries in the coming days, and will be in the hospital for some time. Here’s hoping to a speedy recovery.

Kevin Vaughan (R) won TN-LD-95 easily last night, winning 62%-35%.


WI-Sen: Businessman Kevin Nicholson is considering entering the Republican primary for US Senate and is apparently testing to see how his background as a Democrat will go over with voters. Nicholson was once president of the College Democrats of America and spoke at the 2000 Democratic National Convention. He registered as a Democrat in North Carolina in 2005 and records show he voted in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. He claims he voted “no preference”, but records indicate that nobody in his precinct voted that way. A poll is currently being conducted that mentions this background for an unnamed candidate, but also mentions that the person is a decorated Marine, successful business leader and father of 3 children, who evolved into a conservative Republican, all things that apply to Nicholson’s background. Others considering running include State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R), state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R), state Rep. Dale Kooyenga (R), 2012 GOP candidate Eric Hovde and Nicole Schneider, daughter-in-law of the founder of Schneider Trucking.

CA-48: There seems to be no shortage of Democrats willing to take on Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R). Scientist and entrepreneur Hans Keirstead is the latest to announce a bid. Keirstead is a native of Canada who became a US citizen in 2008. Businessman Harley Rouda, architect Laura Oatman, real estate broker Boyd Roberts and airline pilot Tony Zarkades are also Democrats who are running. Hillary Clinton won the district by 2 points in 2016, although Rohrabacher prevailed by 16 points.

CO-2: State Sen. Kevin Lundberg (R) says contrary to some reports, he is not considering running for this now open seat. One political blog this week mentioned him as a possible candidate, but he says he is only considering a run for state Treasurer. Lundberg was the GOP nominee against Rep. Jared Polis (D) in 2012, losing by 17 points. Polis is now running for governor. The same report that said Lundberg was considering running for Congress also mentioned former State Rep. B.J. Nikkel (R) as a possible candidate-Nikkel has confirmed that she is indeed considering running. 2014 Democratic Secretary of State nominee Joe Neguse is the only Democrat to announce a bid so far, but several others are considering.

FL-23: Tim Canova is back for a rematch. The Bernie Sanders supporter who ran against Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D) from the left in the 2016 Democratic primary is running again. Although Wasserman-Schultz prevailed in the primary by a somewhat comfortable 57-43% margin, Canova received a lot of attention for his run and raised a lot of money from Sanders supporters. There does not seem to be any love lost between the two-Wasserman-Schultz did not even mention her opponent by name in her 2016 primary victory speech and Canova refused to concede or even congratulate her. The outcome of this battle may be a signal as to just how much influence Sanders supporters are building in the party-one thing that may help Wasserman-Schultz however is since she is no longer chairman of the DNC, she is not quite the lightning rod for criticism that she was.

ID-1: Former state Sen. Russ Fulcher (R) is dropping out of the governor’s race and running for Congress instead. He was immediately endorsed by Rep. Raul Labrador (R), who is giving up the seat to run for governor himself. The move should benefit Labrador, as he and Fulcher come from the same more conservative wing of the state GOP, and probably makes Fulcher the frontrunner for this seat for now. The only other candidate to announce a bid so far is 80s era LG David Leroy (R), who also ran for this seat in 1994, finishing a distant 2nd in the GOP primary. Others including state Sen. Bob Nonini (R) and state Reps. Luke Malek (R) and Mike Moyle (R) are considering running.

TN-6: State Rep. Judd Matheny (R) plans to run for Congress, assuming that Rep. Diane Black (R) runs for governor. Matheny says he is waiting to make a formal announcement until Black announces an expected gubernatorial run. If Black does not run for governor, he will not run for Congress and will instead run for re-election to the Tennessee House. Matheny joins pro-Trump journalist Scottie Nell Hughes in considering a run for this seat if Black runs for governor.


IA-Gov: No surprise here, but Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) announced in a press release that she plans to run for governor in 2018. Although she has long been expected to run, even before she succeeded former Gov. and now US Ambassador to China Terry Branstad (R), she had previously been evasive about her plans for 2018. She also announced that Acting LG Adam Gregg (R) will be her running mate. Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is considering running against her in the Republican primary.

MN-Gov: Former state House Speaker Paul Thissen (DFL) is joining a large DFL field for governor. Thissen also ran in 2010, finishing 3rd at the state convention. Thissen was Speaker from 2013-2014, a period when the legislature passed a lot of liberal legislation, and some blame Thissen for the DFL losing their House majority in 2014 and losing more seats in 2016. The DFL field that Thissen is joining also includes Rep. Tim Walz, state Reps. Erin Murphy and Tina Liebling, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman and State Auditor Rebecca Otto. Attorney General Lori Swanson is also considering running.

NY-Gov: A new Marist poll has good news for Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) winning re-election in 2018, but not so good news for a possible presidential run in 2020. The poll shows Cuomo trouncing each of 4 potential Republican candidates-2010 nominee Carl Paladino, 2014 nominee and Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, businessman Harry Wilson and Donald Trump, Jr. by 30+ points. But when asked whether he should run for president in 2020, a majority, 51% do not want him to run.

State offices:

LA-Treas.: State Rep. John Schroder (R) has resigned his state House seat to focus on a campaign for state Treasurer. Schroder was already serving in his final term in the House due to term limits. State Sen. Neil Riser (R) and state Rep. Julie Stokes (R) are also running in the Oct. 14 special election-others are still considering.


Political Roundup for June 15, 2017

First off, our thoughts are of course with Rep. Steve Scalise (R), who is still in critical condition as of last night after undergoing two surgeries following yesterday’s shooting; Scalise will need more surgeries to repair organ damage.

In elections news, there is a special today for TN-LD-95, an R+28 (2012) seat around Collierville in the southeast Memphis suburbs. School board member Kevin Vaughan (R) should be a prohibitive favorite over attorney Julie Byrd-Ashworth (D) barring something seriously unexpected. The shooting has chilled the news cycle a bit, but here is what else happened yesterday –


AL-Gov: Ex-State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (D) kicked off her campaign for Governor yesterday. Cobb, one of the last Democrats to win statewide in Alabama in her partisan court races, seems like a strong candidate for Dems, though she may face primary opposition from State Rep. Craig Ford (D) and/or Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (D). Republicans have a crowded primary and Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not yet declared whether she will seek a full term.

NJ-Gov: Q continues to post this race as a snoozer, as ambassador Phil Murphy (D) leads LG Kim Guandagno (R) 55-26. Gov. Chris Christie (R) continues to be toxic with 81% disapproval.

VA-Gov, VA-Sen: Prince William CE Corey Stewart (R) will not actively support nominee Ed Gillespie (R) after narrowly losing Tuesday’s primary, though he says he will vote for the Republican ticket. Stewart, however,  has said he is now interested in a run against Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in 2018.


AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks (R) had a very eloquent response to a question about gun control minutes after witnessing the shooting. It’s worth reading as this should become memorizable boilerplate for every Republican asked about gun control in response to any shooting incident.

AZ-2: 2016 nominee and ex-State Rep. Matt Heinz (D) will mount a second bid against Rep. Martha McSally (R) in 2018. Heinz lost by 14 points even as Hillary carried the seat by five, so he may not be Democrats’ first choice for a rematch in this purple district.

GA-6: Trafalgar has Jon Ossoff (D) up 47-43 on Karen Handel (R) ahead of next Tuesday’s vote.

AZ-Sen: Hoping to profit off of yesterday’s shooting, senate hopeful Kelli Ward (R) uses an email about Rep. Steve Scalise getting shot to attack Sen. Jeff Flake (R) who was there trying to help him. Our only explanation for this tasteless and insane choice of campaign strategy is that the mind control from the chemtrails Ward was exposed to made her do it.

State & Local:

GA-LG: State Sen. Steve Gooch (R) is considering a run for LG. Should he enter Gooch would join a pair of colleagues, State Senate President David Shafer (R) and State Sen. Rick Jeffares (R), and State Rep. Geoff Duncan (R), in the GOP primary. Incumbent Casey Cagle (R) is running for Governor.

NM-Lands Comm: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) has injected himself into this primary, somewhat surprisingly backing nonprofit exec Gene VeneKlasen (D) over ex-Lands Commissioner Ray Powell (D). Heinrich and VeneKlasen appear to be personal friends, but the endorsement could be a major boost to VeneKlasen’s chance against the better-known Powell. The Dem primary winner will likely face incumbent Aubrey Dunn Jr. (R) in the general.

PA-LG: 2012 PA-16 nominee Aryanna Berringer (nee Strader) (D) will run against LG Mike Stack (D) in this shotgun-wedding primary. Berringer lost to then-Rep. Joe Pitts (R) by 15 points in 2012. She is the first candidate to announce a run against Stack, who has been under fire for allegedly mistreating his staff, though it is likely that stronger candidates may enter. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is rumored to want to be rid of Stack. Due in no small part to the Stack saga, legislation was proposed this week that would convert PA from a shotgun-wedding LG system where primary winners run separately but are yoked together in the general to a presidential-style system where nominees choose running mates. The legislation is a constitutional amendment, which means it would need to pass two successive legislatures and then a referendum, meaning it could not affect the 2018 race.

Seattle-Mayor: The sexual abuse lawsuit against Mayor Ed Murray (D) was abruptly dropped yesterday, though the accuser says he plans to refile next year. Murray dropped his re-election campaign amid the mess created by the lawsuit and the filing deadline has now passed. However, Murray is now considering a write-in campaign. Should he attempt a write-in run he would face ex-Mayor Mike McGinn (D), State Sen. Bob Hasegawa (D), State Rep. Jessyn Farrell (D), ex-US Attorney Jenny Durkan (D), and many others; if he were able to make the top two as a write-in his name would appear on the November ballot.


Shooting at Congressional Baseball Practice

Rep. Steve Scalise and potentially others have been wounded in a shooting at a Republican practice for the congressional baseball game. Our thoughts and prayers are with those injured and our gratitude to the brave officers whose heroism saved many lives today. More as we get it.


Political Roundup for June 14, 2017

Last night in Virginia, the Governor nominees weren’t surprising, but their margins were. LG Ralph Northam (D) prevailed by a surprisingly robust 12 points, while ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R) squeaked to a 1-point victory over Prince William CE and self-hating Yankee Corey Stewart. For LG, 2013 AG candidate Justin Fairfax (D) and State Sen. Jill Vogel (D) will face off. There were no particular surprises in the House of Delegates primaries, with one minor exception: Banker Mavis Taintor (D), who self-funded an insane $175K (!) for her bid in Loudon County’s LD-33, lost her primary 52-48 to a more traditionally-spending candidate. Hopefully for her Taintor self-funded most of that cash as a loan rather than a gift. In Las Vegas, Steve Seroka (D) ousted incumbent Bob Beers (R) for council district 2 while ex-State Rep. Michele Fiore (R) picked up the open district 6.


IN-Sen: State Rep. Mike Braun (R), who is in his second term representing a rural Southwestern Indiana seat, will explore a run against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). Braun is the first candidate to definitively declare interest in this race, but is definitely well into the “C” list. Three far bigger names, Reps. Luke Messer (R) and Todd Rokita (R) and AG Curtis Hill (R), are thought to be considering the race, and it’s hard to see Braun as any kind of threat to them in the primary.

TN-Sen: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) announced last week that she would not challenge Sen. Bob Corker (R) in 2018, though she has not shut the door on a gubernatorial bid. Corker has announced he would not run for Governor, but has not firmly declared whether he will seek a third term in the Senate. Presumably Blackburn’s Senate calculations would change if the seat were to come open.

UT-Sen: The Romney for Senate speculation machine continues to churn, as Mitt has announced he remain active in politics by forming a SuperPAC designed to help House Republicans in 2018. Biden has encouraged Romney to run for the seat of Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), and Romney did nothing to brush away that suggestion when the two appeared together last week.


AL-Gov: Medical technology executive Josh Jones (R) is the latest candidate into this increasingly crowded primary. Jones joins (deep breath) Ag Commissioner John McMillan (R), PSC Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh (R), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R), Jefferson County commissioner David Carrington (R), and minister Scott Dawson (R) in the race. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not indicated whether or not she will seek a full term and says she may not make an announcement until the fall.

FL-Gov: Now here’s something you don’t see every day: A prospective Democratic candidate holding a fundraiser for a prospective Republican rival. But that’s exactly what wealthy ambulance-chasing trail lawyer John Morgan (D) is doing for State House Speaker Rich Corcoran (R). Morgan, a staunch booster of medical marijuana, is holding the fundraiser as thanks to Corcoran for his work in making the state’s medical pot statute more permissive. Though neither has declared for the gubernatorial race yet, both men have said they are actively exploring bids. Morgan would join ex-Rep. Gwen Graham (D), Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), and businessman Chris King (D) on the Dem side. Corcoran would join Ag Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) in the GOP primary, with Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) also considering.

MI-Gov: Businessman Shri Thanedar (D) is the latest candidate to officially enter this race. Thanedar has indicated he will partially self-fund; he will face ex-State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D), businessman Bill Cobbs (D), and Detroit official Abul El-Sayed (D) in the Dem primary, with Macomb CE Mark Hackel (D) the biggest name still considering a run. On the GOP side, LG Brian Calley (R), AG Bill Schuete (R), and State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R) look like the major possible contenders.

PA-Gov: Businessman Kris Hart (R), who had been exploring a run for US Senate, will instead seek the nomination to challenge Gov. Tom Wolf (D). Hart joins State Sen. Scott Wagner (R) and businessman Paul Mango (R) in the race, with State House Speaker Mike Turzai (R) and ex-LG Jim Cawley (R) considering runs as well.

RI-Gov: Republicans have their first candidate making serious moves toward challenging Gov. Gina Raimondo (D). Ex-State Rep. Joe Trillo (R), who retired in 2016, is preparing a run and seems to be staking out a position as a Trumpist, which might be a questionable strategy in the deep-blue state. Cranston Mayor and 2014 nominee Alan Fung (R) is widely thought likely to make another bid, and a couple other Republicans are considering. The fiscally moderate Raimondo may face a significant primary challenge from her left as well, though no Democrats have made concrete moves toward the race yet.


CO-2: 2014 SoS nominee and Hickenlooper admin official Joe Neguse (D) announced a bid for Congress Tuesday, and quickly secured several prominent endorsements, including from ex-State House Speaker Dickey Lee Hullinghorst (D). Two other Dems, 2000 CO-6 nominee Ken Toltz (D) and executive Shannon Watts (D), who are both also prominent gun-control activists, are also publicly considering the race.

GA-6: A SUSA poll shows the race between ex-SoS Karen Handel (R) and Han Solo impersonator former congressional staffer Jon Ossoff (D) tied at 47, a significant improvement for Handel from their prior poll, where Ossoff led by 7 points. The closely-watched runoff for this seat is this coming Tuesday.

NC-9: Megachurch pastor and 2016 candidate Mark Harris (R) is resigning to consider another congressional run. Harris fell just short by 135 votes in a three-way race against Rep. Robert Pittenger (R). Pittenger has had multiple controversies related to questionable business dealings and making racist remarks on national TV, so there is a strong possibility he could be vulnerable to a primary in 2018; he is also high on retirement watchlists.

NH-1: State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) announced Tuesday that he would run against on-again/off-again Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in this purple seat. Sanborn, known as a staunch conservative with libertarian tendencies, joins former local police chief Eddie Edwards (R) in the GOP primary.

NY-22: State Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) is considering a run against Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) in 2018. Brindisi considered a run for the open seat, and was heavily recruited by national Dems, in 2016 before deciding not to run. This formerly light-red seat moved strongly right in 2016, but the conservative Tenney fell short of a majority, winning 47-40 in a 3-way race.

OH-2: Jerry Springer (D) has been floated for multiple offices by Ohio Democrats in recent years, including for this cycle’s Governor race. But it seems he may have a different seat in mind, as someone has apparently been polling Springer against Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R). This deep-red Cincinnati-area seat would likely be a tough hill to climb for Springer or any other Democrat.

TN-6: Prominent pro-Trump talking head Scottie Nell Hughes (R), who also runs a pro-Trump press group, will consider a run for this deep-red central Tennessee seat if Rep. Diane Black (R) gives it up to run for Governor. Hughes, the first candidate to publicly declare interest in the seat, has said that she would not challenge Black in the primary.

WI-6: Nonprofit exec Dan Kohl (D), nephew of ex-Sen. Herb (D), will challenge Rep. Glenn Grothman (R) for this medium-red seat stretching from the northern Milwaukee suburbs to Oshkosh.

State & Local:

AL-AG: Former US Attorney Alice Martin (R), who also served as chief deputy to now-Sen. Luther Strange (R) when he was AG, will run for the AG slot in 2018. Martin will face appointed incumbent Steve Marshall (R), whose appointment by disgraced then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) may be problematic for his chances of keeping the seat. However, Martin may find hitting Marshall on his Bentley ties problematic herself, as she interviewed for the appointment as well.

CA-LG: Ex-Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (G), who for her eight years from 2006-2014 made Richmond by far the largest city with a Green Party Mayor, will run for LG in 2018. McLaughlin’s odds are probably long with several prominent Dems in the race, but she has a chance to stake out a position as the farthest-left candidate in an already-left-wing field. McLaughlin will face State Sen. Ed Hernandez (D), former Ambassadors Eleni Kounalakis (D) and Jeff Bleich (D), and physician Asif Mahmood (D), and likely others, in this race.

FL-Ag Comm: Ex-State Rep. Baxter Troutman (R) is running for Ag Commissioner, becoming the fourth Republican into this primary. Troutman joins State Sen. Denise Grimsley (R), State Rep. Matt Caldwell (R), and 2015 Orlando Mayoral candidate Paul Paulson (R) in the race.

FL-CFO: CFO Jeff Atwater (R) will resign on June 30th to take an academic position. Gov. Rick Scott (R) is tasked with appointing his replacement. One possible appointee took his name out of the running this week though, as State Sen. Jack Latvala (R) announced he was not interested in being appointed. The move probably means Latvala is considering his 2018 options as running for Governor and bowing out of politics entirely.

KS-SoS: Sedgwick County Clerk and KSGOP chair Kelly Arnold (R) is the first person to consider a run for the open seat of SoS Kris Kobach (R), who is running for Governor. With his base in the Wichita area and institutional ties, Arnold would likely be a formidable candidate for the seat.

NM-LG: Ex-State Rep. Rick Miera (D), the former House Majority leader until his 2014 retirement, will explore a run for LG in this shotgun-wedding primary. Miera joins two little-known candidates, civil servant David McTeigue (D) and teacher Jeff Carr (D), in the Dem primary race, and thus would seem to be the front-runner. The primary winner will be combined on a ticket with the winner of the (entirely separate) Gov primary.

Mobile-Mayor: Ex-Mayor Sam Jones (D) will kick off a run to get his old job back this Saturday. Jones served two terms as Mayor before losing his 2013 to re-election race to now-incumbent Sandy Stimpson (R). Jones will likely face a rematch with Stimpson in this year’s race, in late August.

CA-SD-29: Legislative Democrats are pushing bills to delay the state’s recall process in order to help State Sen. Josh Newman (D). Newman won a formerly-red Orange County seat in 2016 in a considerable upset and is now the target of a recall campaign by Republicans upset with his vote for a recent tax hike. The bills under consideration would slow down the recall process so that a successful Newman recall effort would be unlikely to trigger an election before the 2018 general election.


VA Primary Liveblog

Results: AP || NYT || VPAP

10:05 ET- Those last few precincts shouldn’t change much; Gillespie will squeak by, with about a 1-point margin. That’s all folks… check back in tomorrow’s Roundup for a full recap.

9:53 ET- Fairfax has dumped. With 31 precincts left, Gillespie is up 4200.

9:47 ET- Vogel has the check. Gillespie+2900 with 78/118 unreported precincts from Fairfax County.

9:33 ET- 94%, Gillespie +2800, Vogel +4400. With over half of what’s left from Fairfax, I’m increasingly confident both leads will hold.

9:22 ET- 92%, Gillespie +2200, Vogel +4300. Over half of what’s left is in Fairfax.

9:17 ET- 91%, Gillespie +1500, Vogel +4700

9:05 ET- 88%, Gillespie +2000, Vogel +2600

8:57 ET- 86% in, Gillespie +1300, Vogel +3500

8:52 ET- Fairfax finally has the check. Gillespie +1300, Vogel +3400

8:44 ET- 83% in, Gillespie +1000, Vogel +4400

8:38 ET- 80% in, Gillespie +1800, Vogel +2600

8:33 ET- 76% in, and I’m going to switch to raw votes for the GOP. It’s Gillespie +2700, Vogel +1700. Fairfax still up 49-40 for Dems; not sure why AP hasn’t called that one.

8:26 ET-70% in, Gillespie 43-42 (2000 vote difference). Fairfax 49-40, Vogel +500 votes.

8:23 ET- Prince William just dumped in its entirety. Stewart won 60-31 there, but Gillespie still leads by under 1 point overall.

8:21 ET- 2/3 in. 44-42 Gillespie, 49-39 Fairfax, 42-41 Vogel.

8:15 ET- 61% in, 44-42 Gillespie. 48-40 Fairfax, Vogel up by 300 votes out of 190K cast.

8:10 ET- Northam has the check for Gov-D.

8:08 ET- One strange thing about the GOP side is that the coalitions are not what you might expect: Stewart is doing pretty well in suburban areas while Gillespie is winning some rural Southside and SWVA counties. Neither is really running up the score anywhere.

8:00 ET- 46% in, Gillespie 43-42, Northam 57, Vogel 43-40, Fairfax 48-40.

7:55 ET- 33% in, Northam 57 Gillespie 43-41.

7:51 ET- About a quarter in, and the GOP side is the more competitive one: Northam is up 57-43 and Gillespie is up 43-42. For LG, Fairfax 48-40, Vogel 43-40.

7:45 ET – A little shy of 20% in, 56-44 Northam, 43-41 Gillespie, 47-41 Fairfax, 41-41 Vogel/Reeves (Vogel up by 60 votes). Frustratingly there aren’t great geographic patterns in any of the races, so it’s hard to tell whether what is in is representative.

7:33 ET- 10% in and all four races are really tight: 45-42 Gillespie, 52-48 Northam. 46-42 Fairfax, 42-41 Vogel.

7:27 ET- 2% in, 57-43 Northam, 45-43 Gillespie, Fairfax over Platt 50-38, Vogel over Reeves 52-35.

7:22 ET- Northam up 60-40, Gillespie up 46-43. Fairfax is at 58 for LG-D, and Reeves is leading Vogel 48-35 for LG-R.

7:19 ET- Northam is up 69-30 in the first precincts, from Portsmouth, Prince George, and Pittsylvania. Gillespie is up 44-41 on Stewart.

7:00ET – Polls have closed in Virginia.


Political Roundup for June 13th, 2017

Programming note: Virginia’s primary and Las Vegas City Council runnoff election are today. We will have a liveblog with all the results when the polls close tonight at 7pm ET. Check out our previews if you haven’t already.


Trump: Apparently it wasn’t the Russians who unleashed an army of social media bots to boost Trump’s 2016 candidacy on Twitter, Facebook and other social media platforms. It was billionaire Robert Mercer who spearheaded the efforts weaponize social media by using fake accounts to spread stories and narratives to influence real people.

Merkley: According to a CNN profile Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is considering a run for President in 2020. Merkley was the only US Senator to endorse fellow Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016.


AZ-Gov: Failed 2014 Democrat nominee for State Superintendent of Public Instruction David Garcia is out with an internal PPP poll showing him leading Gov. Doug Ducey (R) 44% to 42%. His paid for internal poll also conveniently shows Garcia beating leading state Sen. Steve Farley by a 53% to 11% margin in the Democrat primary and Duecy beating Farley by a 42% to 40% margin. Take this internal poll with a Grand Canyon sized grain of salt.

NE-Gov: State Sen. Bob Krist (RINO) says he may skip challenging Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) in the GOP primary and instead run against him as an independent in 2018.

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov Kevin Bryant (R) is considering a primary challenge to Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Bryant was a state senator who after a series of events became Lt. Governor when Lt. Gov. McMaster ascended to the Governorship after President Trump picked Nikki Haley to become US Ambassador to the UN.

TN-Gov: Republican candidate Randy Boyd is kicking off his gubernatorial campaign by selling Randy Boyd for Governor fidget spinners for $5 on his campaign website. No word yet if fellow GOP candidate Bill Lee or State Sen. Mae Beavers will offering fidget spinners of their own. And yes if you are wondering I really want one of these for my political memorabilia collection!


AL-Sen: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) has endorsed fellow Rep. Mo Brooks (R) for Senate. Brooks is facing appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) and a host of other candidates in the August 15th Republican primary.


GA-6: Ad spending in Georgia’s special congressional election approaches $40 million mark! The amount of money being spent on this House race is absolutely insane! To put this in perspective Jeb Bush’s 2016 Presidential campaign spent $34.7 million in hard dollars.

IA-3: Democrat Cindy Axne announced she will challenge Rep. David Young (R) next year. Axne’s is a former government worker.  Pete D’Alessandro, who ran Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign in Iowa, is exploring a potential bid as as well.

MN-7: Trucking company owner Matt Prosch announced he will seek the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Collin Peterson (D). State Rep. Tim Miller and underfunded 2016 candidate Dave Hughes are also seeking the GOP nomination for this rural seat Donald Trump carried by a 62% to 31% margin.

MN-8: Former counter-terrorism analyst Leah Phifer (D) is exploring a primary challenge to Rep. Nick Nolan. Nolan recently announced that he will not run for governor of Minnesota next year, but has yet to announce whether he’ll seek re-election next year.

MT-AL: Newly elected Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) was fined $385, sentenced to 40 hours of community service and 20 hours of sessions for anger management after pleading guilty to assaulting Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs on the eve of his election. Gianforte has publicly apologized for his actions to Ben Jacobs, donated $50,000 to Committee to Protect Journalism and took full responsibility for his actions.

NJ-3: President Donald Trump held a fundraiser for Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) at the Trump National Golf Club and raised over $800,000 for MacArthur’s re-election campaign. MacArthur was one of 24 House Republicans targeted by a Democratic advocacy group in TV and digital advertisement for his vote in favor of the AHCA.

NY-19: We are beginning to lose track of how many Democrats are running against Rep. John Faso (R). Jeff Beals, a former diplomat and CIA officer, is the latest Democrat to throw his hat into the ring. Beals joins Brian Flynn, Antonio Delgado and former Gov. Cuomo aide Gareth Rhodes in seeking the Democrat nomination. Hopefully some of these candidates will take advantage of NY’s fusion voting ballot law and carry their campaigns all the way through to November on minor party lines if they lose the Democrat primary!

NY-23: Democrat Ulysses Town Councilman and Star Trek: Deep Space Nine actor John “J.G.” Hertzler (he played Klingon General Martok) announced he intends to run for Congress vs. Rep. Tom Reed (R). The jury is still out as to if Hertzler will be a serious candidate or not. On the one hand Hertzler’s acting fame and local political involvement could make him a serious candidate while on the other Hertzler claimed he wanted to dress up and campaign in the persona of Mark Twain. Rep. Tom Reed had a close call in 2012 when he was re-elected by a less than 4% margin to a C-list 28 year old Democrat candidate. Since then he cruised to fairly easy re-elections in 2014 and 2016.

PA-6: EMILY’s List is backing Democrat Chrissy Houlahan in her bid to win the Democrat nomination to face Rep. Ryan Costello (R). Donald Trump lost this district to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a razor thin 48.2% to 47.6% margin while Costello won it by more than 14 percentage points. Houlahan faces Bob Dettore in the Democratic primary.

State, Local & Other:

UK Elections: At RRHelections we know that he who draws the lines wins. Does anyone have a good analysis of  what the 2017 British Elections results would have been if the constituencies boundaries were redrawn? I saw one estimate that with the exact same vote with different boundaries the Conservatives would have won a 20 seat majority. Does anyone know if that is accurate or have a detailed analysis of what could have been without the current Labour gerrymander?


VA Primary Preview

Tomorrow is Virginia’s primary for three statewide offices and the State House. Both Democrats and Republicans have competitive primaries for the top two statewide slots. Polls close at 7p ET and our liveblog will start tomorrow at that time.

VA-Gov (D, R): Both sides have contested primaries for Virginia’s top job; the Democratic side looks like the more competitive race.

Ralph Northam

That Democrats have the more competitive race is somewhat surprising, as LG Ralph Northam (D) was not supposed to face a seriously-contested primary. After declaring, his most likely rival, AG Mark Herring (D), surprisingly decided to sit out this race and run for re-election, and as a result, Northam quickly coalesced most establishment support. A physician, Northam has had a term as LG following service in the state legislature; he is a relative moderate who supported Republicans as recently as the 2000s and was even recruited to switch parties. But Northam has more recently mostly been notable for being about as bland and low-key a pol as they come. That has historically been a good posture for Virginia Democrats, who have built their statewide success over the last decade and a half through unexciting moderate-liberals like Sens. Mark Warner (D) and Tim Kaine (D). Northam also received the endorsement of the Washington Post, which can swing a fair number of moderate-liberal votes in NoVa. But this year with the liberal grassoots energized, Northam’s bland, somewhat moderate/establishment nature has left a significant opening to his left.

Tom Perriello

Ex-Rep. Tom Perriello (D) entered the race just before the filing deadline. Perriello served one term representing VA-5, being swept in on the 2008 wave by a tiny margin, and then summarily swept out in 2010. Despite representing a red district, Perriello was an unapologetic progressive in the House, leading him to become a minor national left-wing hero. However, he had largely gone dark from the political stage since his loss, which is why his late decision to enter the race came as a bit of a shock. Perriello has attempted to seize the Sanders mantle, which is something of a strange decision in a state that Clinton won easily and where Democrats are generally considered establishment-friendly. However, the strategy has worked to an extent; despite starting at a name rec deficit to Northam, polling now shows the race very close. All in all the Dem race looks close to a pure Tossup, though there have been rumblings that Northam has opened up some slight momentum over the last few days.

Ed Gillespie

Unlike the hotly-contested race on the Democratic side, the Republican primary has been thought to have a clear front-runner in ex-RNC Chair and 2014 US Senate nominee Ed Gillespie (R). Gillespie came much closer than expected to upsetting entrenched Sen. Mark Warner (D) in 2014, and he has parlayed that performance into a strong rapport with the state GOP establishment. Gillespie has fundraised very well, and mostly played prevent defense in the primary, coasting on his name recognition and party ties; unsurprisingly, he has more than lapped his rivals in funding. With the exception of one recent poll that showed the race close, Gillespie has also led by healthy margins in all polling.

Corey Stewart

Prince William CE Corey Stewart (R) has been considered Gillespie’s major rival. Stewart has held the top job in the large and diversifying NoVa suburban county for a decade, and has been well-known as a longtime immigration hawk. For this race, Stewart has attempted to carve out an antiestablishment niche. That is not the worst strategy, as Gillespie is about as quintessential an establishment figure as they come, leaving ample room for a more populist-conservative campaign. However, Stewart’s campaign might be best summed up by the phrase reductio ad absurdum; he has taken the antiestablishment mantle to a comical extent. Stewart was dismissed last year as Trump’s Virginia campaign chair for leading a protest outside the RNC, and he has made his major issue this year an over-the-top dramatic defense of Confederate monuments. Unsurprisingly, Stewart hasn’t been able to break outside of his hardcore antiestablishment base, and looks likely to finish well behind Gillespie unless extremely low turnout hands power to his dedicated core of supporters. Should he pull a major surprise and be nominated, he would likely be by far the weakest general election candidate.

Frank Wagner

State Sen. Frank Wagner (R) is the third candidate in the race. Wagner is a veteran and mainstream conservative who has held down a swingy State Senate district in Virginia Beach for over a decade. However, he does not have high name recognition outside of his native Hampton Roads area, and has been far behind Gillespie in fundraising. Thus, he has been treated as a bit of an also-ran for much of the campaign. However, he could still have some support in the Hampton Roads area, and he received the Washington Post endorsement, which may be worth some minor support from NoVa moderates. That positioning combined with the weak nature of Stewart’s campaign makes it possible Wagner could slip into second place. But all in all this primary looks likely to be an easy Gillespie win.

The general election in the purple-to-light-blue state is likely to be competitive barring a Stewart nomination, though recent polls have shown Democrats with moderate leads. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

VA-LG (R, D): Both sides have competitive three-way primaries for the separately-elected #2 slot as well, though it looks like in this case the Republican side is more contentious.

Jill Vogel

State Sen. Jill Vogel (R) is the best-funded candidate. A former RNC aide who is personally wealthy and represents a wealthy exurban NoVa seat, Vogel has been known as a relative moderate in the legislature, but is still an establishment conservative overall. She has had strong establishment support, particularly in the suburban part of the state; to win, Vogel will likely need to run up a margin in NoVa, bolstered by ad spending in the DC market. However, her main liability is the accusation that she has personally emailed out (under a fake name) false rumors that her main rival was having an affair. For her part, Vogel has said that her family’s electronics were hacked and used to send the emails.

Bryce Reeves

Fellow State Sen. Bryce Reeves (R) has been seen as Vogel’s major rival. Reeves, who represents a seat stretching from Fredericksburg to Charlottesville, is best-known for brokering a deal to expand gun rights in the legislature. Like Vogel, Reeves has significant establishment support, generally concentrated in the “RoVa” part of the state outside the DC sphere of influence. Though he can’t match Vogel’s fundraising, he has raised enough cash to be credible. But Reeves has become bogged down in an acrimonious fight with Vogel over that false affair allegation, which has triggered a lawsuit between the two. All in all the situation has left neither looking particularly good. Additionally, Reeves has taken criticism for a mailer bragging that he opposed a gay judicial nominee solely because of his sexuality.

Glenn Davis

The tit-for-tat squabble between Reeves and Vogel could provide an opening for the third candidate in the race, State Rep. Glenn Davis (R). Davis, who represents part of Virginia Beach, is an establishment conservative; though he has been behind Vogel and Reeves in funds, he has raised enough to be credible. Davis has been touring the state by RV, hoping to make up his funding deficit with retail campaigns. Useful polling of this race is basically non-existent, as all three candidates remain little-known. CW is that Vogel is a slight front-runner, but any of the three candidates could have a chance to win.

Justin Fairfax

Three candidates are also running on the Democratic side. Former federal prosecutor and 2013 AG candidate Justin Fairfax (D) mounted his first statewide bid four years ago as an antiestablishment candidate. As a little-known prosecutor, he came within three points of upsetting the heavily-favored then-State Sen. Mark Herring (D). However, Fairfax made a good impression in that race and his second try for statewide office has been met with more support from establishment Democrats. As an African-American, his heritage also could give him a strong base in an increasingly diverse party. Though he still does not have particularly high name recognition and his fundraising has been mediocre, Fairfax still leads his two intraparty rivals on both counts. And that combined with his establishment backing has led CW to peg Fairfax as the front-runner in this primary.

Susan Platt

Former Biden Senate CoS, Dem operative, and lobbyist Susan Platt (D) has been second in fundraising, bolstered by support from EMILY’s list. Platt has been attempting to position herself as the most liberal candidate in the field, openly advocating for Trump’s impeachment. Platt has some significant establishment support; however, her fundraising and establishment backing has trailed Fairfax’s, and she has also been hurt by allegations of falsely claiming endorsements. Thus, CW has her likely to come in second.

Gene Rossi

The third candidate in the race, former federal prosecutor Gene Rossi (D), has an interesting story of recovery from a rare blood disease and a long history of prosecutorial service. However, Rossi’s resume as an establishment liberal prosecutor largely overlaps with Fairfax’s, and he has struggled with fundraising and attracting establishment support. Overall, the race still looks like Fairfax’s to lose, but with all three candidates little-known, an upset (more likely by Platt on left-wing votes) is definitely within the realm of possiblity.

With nominees on both sides still unknown, the general election still has a lot of uncertainty, and much will depend on how the gubernatorial election shakes out. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

VA-AG is the last office on the ballot, and the lone office in Virginia with no primary this year. Incumbent Mark Herring (D) will face former federal prosecutor John Adams (R). Adams is a credible candidate as a veteran and former Bush 43 administration official, but an incumbent Virginia Row Officer hasn’t lost a bid for re-election in at least 90 years, and thus Herring looks like a very strong favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

Las Vegas: Finally, we normally don’t cover city council races, but there are some interesting stories in the two seats on the Las Vegas City Council that will head to runoffs tomorrow. District 2 is located in the suburban west-central Summerlin area. Incumbent Bob Beers (R) led veteran Steve Seroka (D) 43-29 in the preliminary. However, Beers has been under fire for his support of a new development, and the third candidate in the race also opposed it. As a result, Seroka could have a wedge issue in which to prevail, and there seems to be no clear favorite in the runoff; money has been flowing heavily to both sides District 6 is located in the suburban northwest of the city. Antiestablishment firebrand libertarian-conservative ex-State Rep. and 2016 NV-3 candidate Michelle Fiore (R) led Kelli Ross (D), wife of the outgoing incumbent, 46-31 in the preliminary, and should be at least slightly favored in the runoff.

Flip over for Virginia State House Previews!

Continue Reading