RRH Elections Race Rankings

Here are our most current official RRH Elections Race Rankings and Ratings: The ratings represent the moderators’ opinion of the races averaged together; you can think of them as our gestalt assessment of all the possible outcomes of the race weighted by how likely each outcome is to occur. Rankings go from #1 most likely to flip to the highest as least likely to flip.

Senate Rankings: (Updated January 6; next update March 23):
Prior updates: January 2023 || April 2023 || July 2023 || October 2023 || January 2024

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA (OPEN)
CT (Murphy)
DE (OPEN)
HI (Hirono)
ME (King*)
MD (OPEN)
MA (Warren)
MN (Klobuchar)
NM (Heinrich)
NY (Gillibrand)
RI (Whitehouse)
VT (Sanders*)
WA (Cantwell)
NJ (OPEN)
VA (Kaine)
AZ (OPEN)^
MI (OPEN)
NV (Rosen)
PA (Casey)
WI (Baldwin)
MT (Tester)
OH (Brown)
TX (Cruz) FL (R. Scott)
IN (OPEN)
MO (Hawley)
MS (Wicker)
NE-F (Fischer)
NE-R (Ricketts)
ND (Cramer)
TN (Blackburn)
UT (OPEN)
WV (OPEN)
WY (Barasso)

Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. * denotes a Dem-caucusing Independent, ^ denotes a seat favored to flip from Independent to a partisan member of the same caucus. RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in Senate seats of between R+1 and R+3 in 2024.

Governor Rankings: (Updated December 2; next update March 23):
Prior updates: January 2023 || April 2023 || July 2023 || September 2023 || December 2023

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
  DE (OPEN)
WA (OPEN)
NJ ’25 (OPEN) NH (OPEN)
NC (OPEN)
VA ’25 (OPEN)
  IN (OPEN)
MO (OPEN)
MT (Gianforte)
VT (Scott)
ND (OPEN)
UT (Cox)
WV (OPEN)

Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats in 2023-2024 of between R+0 and R+2.

House Ratings: (Updated January 27; next update June 29)
Prior updates: March 2023 || September 2023 || January 2024

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
AL-2 (OPEN)
AZ-4 (Stanton)
CA-21 (Costa)
CA-49 (Levin)
FL-9 (Soto)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
GA-2 (Bishop)
IL-11 (Foster)
IL-14 (Underwood)
KS-3 (Davids)
LA-6 (G. Graves)
MD-6 (OPEN)
MO-5 (Cleaver)
NH-2 (Kuster)
NJ-3 (OPEN)
NM-1 (Stansbury)
NM-3 (Leger-Fernandez)
NY-25 (Morelle)
NY-26 (VACANT)
OH-1 (Landsman)
OR-4 (Hoyle)
RI-2 (Magaziner)
TX-28 (Cuellar)
VA-10 (Wexton)
WA-6 (OPEN)
WA-8 (Schrier)
AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-9 (Harder)
CO-8 (Caraveo)
CT-5 (Hayes)
IL-17 (Sorensen)
IN-1 (Mrvan)
ME-2 (Golden)
MI-3 (Scholten)
MN-2 (Craig)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-3 (Susie Lee)
NV-4 (Horsford)
NH-1 (Pappas)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Ryan)
NC-1 (Don Davis)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-6 (Salinas)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
TX-34 (V. Gonzalez)
AZ-1 (Schweikert)
AZ-6 (Ciscomani)
CA-13 (Duarte)
CA-27 (M. Garcia)
CA-47 (OPEN)
MI-7 (OPEN)
MI-8 (OPEN)
NM-2 (Vasquez)

NY-4 (D’Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-22 (B. Williams)
OH-9 (Kaptur)
OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-7 (Wild)
PA-8 (Cartwright)
VA-7 (OPEN)
WA-3 (Gluesenkamp-Perez)
CA-3 (Kiley)
CA-22 (Valadao)
CA-41 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Steel)
CO-3 (OPEN)
FL-13 (Luna)
IA-3 (Nunn)
MI-10 (James)
MT-1 (Zinke)
NE-2 (Bacon)
NJ-7 (Kean)
NY-1 (LaLota)
NY-2 (Garbarino)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
VA-2 (Kiggans)
WI-3 (Van Orden)
AZ-2 (Crane)
CA-40 (Y. Kim)
CO-5 (OPEN)
FL-27 (Salazar)
FL-28 (Gimenez)
IA-1 (Miller-Meeks)
IA-2 (Hinson)
MD-1 (Harris)
MI-4 (Huizenga)
MO-2 (Wagner)
NE-1 (Flood)
NY-11 (Malliotakis)
NC-11 (Edwards)
OH-7 (Max Miller)
OH-15 (Carey)
PA-1 (Fitzpatrick)
PA-10 (Perry)
SC-1 (Mace)
TN-5 (Ogles)
TX-15 (De La Cruz)
TX-23 (T. Gonzales)
VA-1 (Wittman)
VA-5 (Good)
WI-1 (Steil)

Safe GOP Pickups: NC-6 (OPEN), NC-13 (OPEN), NC-14 (OPEN)

Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in House seats of between R+8 and D+9 in 2024.

Row Officer Ratings: (Updated December 2; next update July 2024)
Prior updates: December 2023

.
Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
DE-Ins (Navarro)
VT-AG (Clark)
VT-Aud (Hoffer)
VT-LG (Zuckerman)
VT-SoS (Copeland-Hanzas)
VT-Treas (Pieciak)
WA-Aud (McCarthy)
WA-LG (Heck)
WA-Supt (Reykdal)
WA-Treas (Pellicciotti)
DE-LG (OPEN)
OR-AG (OPEN)
OR-SoS (OPEN)
OR-Treas (OPEN)
WA-AG (OPEN)
WA-Ins (OPEN)
WA-SoS (Hobbs)
WI-Supt ’25 (Underly)
NC-SoS (Marshall)
WA-Lands (OPEN)
NC-AG (OPEN)
NC-Aud (Holmes)
NC-Lab (OPEN)
NC-Treas (OPEN)
PA-AG (OPEN)
PA-Aud (DeFoor)
PA-Treas (Garrity)
VA-AG ’25 (Miyares)
VA-LG ’25 (Sears)
MT-Ins (OPEN)
MT-Supt (OPEN)
NC-Ins (Causey)
NC-Supt (OPEN)
IN-AG (Rokita)
MO-AG (Bailey)
MO-LG (OPEN)
MO-SoS (OPEN)
MO-Treas (Malek)
MT-SoS (Jacobsen)
MT-AG (Knudsen)
NC-Agri (Troxler)
AR-Treas (OPEN)
ND-Aud (Gallion)
ND-Ins (Godfread)
ND-Supt (Baesler)
ND-Treas (Beadle)
UT-AG (OPEN)
UT-Aud (Dougall)
UT-Treas (Oaks)
WV-AG (OPEN)
WV-Agri (Leonhardt)
WV-Aud (OPEN)
WV-SoS (OPEN)
WV-Treas (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a formally non-partisan race.

Final 2022 Race Rankings

Final 2020 Race Rankings

Final 2018 Race Rankings

Final 2016 Race Rankings