RRH Elections Race Rankings

Here are our most current official RRH Elections Race Rankings and Ratings: The ratings represent the moderators’ opinion of the races averaged together; you can think of them as our gestalt assessment of all the possible outcomes of the race weighted by how likely each outcome is to occur.

 

Senate Rankings: (Updated January 7; next update July 15):
Prior updates: January 2017

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA (Feinstein)
CT (Murphy)
DE (Carper)
HI (Hirono)
MD (Cardin)
MA (Warren)
NY (Gillibrand)
RI (Whitehouse)
VT (Sanders)
WA (Cantwell)
ME (King)
MI (Stabenow)
MN (Klobuchar)
NJ (Menendez)
NM (Heinrich)
FL (Nelson)
PA (Casey)
VA (Kaine)
WI (Baldwin)
AZ (Flake)
IN (Donnelly)
MO (McCaskill)
MT (Tester)
NV (Heller)
ND (Heitkamp)
OH (Brown)
WV (Manchin)
AL (Strange)
MS (Wicker)
NE (Fischer)
TN (Corker)
TX (Cruz)
UT (Hatch)
WY (Barrasso)

Note the nominal “Independents” Sanders and King are counted as Dems. These rankings mean we are projecting a net Senate shift of between D+2 and R+6.

 

Governor Rankings: (Updated May 20; next update September 16):
Prior updates: January 2017 || May 2017

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA (OPEN)
HI (Ige)
NJ (OPEN)
NY (Cuomo)
OR (K. Brown)
RI (Raimondo)
MN (OPEN)
NM (OPEN)

PA (Wolf)
.
Lean I:
AK (B. Walker)
CO (OPEN)
CT (OPEN)
FL (OPEN)
IL (Rauner)
ME (OPEN)
MI (OPEN)
NV (OPEN)
VA (OPEN)
KS (OPEN)
MD (Hogan)
MA (Baker)
NH (Sununu)
OH (OPEN)
WI (S. Walker)
AL (Ivey)
AZ (Ducey)
GA (OPEN)
IA (Reynolds)
OK (OPEN)
SC (McMaster)
SD (OPEN)
TN (OPEN)
VT (P. Scott)
AR (Hutchinson)
ID (OPEN)
NE (Ricketts)
TX (Abbott)
WY (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we expect to flip; Italics denotes a Dem-held Tossup seat. These rankings mean that we start out predicting a net shift in Gubernatorial seats of between R+1 and D+7.

 

House & Row Officer Ratings: (Updated June 16 – Next House Update July 22)

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
NYC-Comp (Stringer)
NYC-PA (James)
NYC-Mayor (DeBlasio)
VA-AG (Herring)
VA-LG (OPEN) LA-PSC-2 (Baldone) LA-Treas (Henson) UT-3 (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a formally non-partisan race.

Final 2016 Race Rankings