RRH Elections Race Rankings

Here are our most current official RRH Elections Race Rankings and Ratings: The ratings represent the moderators’ opinion of the races averaged together; you can think of them as our gestalt assessment of all the possible outcomes of the race weighted by how likely each outcome is to occur.

 

Senate Rankings: (Updated July 15; next update October 28):
Prior updates: January 2017 || July 2017

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA (Feinstein)
CT (Murphy)
DE (Carper)
HI (Hirono)
MD (Cardin)
MA (Warren)
MN (Klobuchar)
NM (Heinrich)
NY (Gillibrand)
RI (Whitehouse)
VT (Sanders)
WA (Cantwell)
ME (King)
MI (Stabenow)
NJ (Menendez)
PA (Casey)
VA (Kaine)
FL (Nelson)
MT (Tester)
OH (Brown)
WV (Manchin)
WI (Baldwin)
IN (Donnelly)
NV (Heller)
ND (Heitkamp)
AZ (Flake) 
MO (McCaskill)
TX (Cruz) AL (Strange)
MS (Wicker)
NE (Fischer)
TN (Corker)
UT (Hatch)
WY (Barrasso)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. Note the nominal “Independents” Sanders and King are counted as Dems. These rankings mean we are projecting a net Senate shift of between R+0 and R+3.

 

Governor Rankings: (Updated September 16; next update December 16):
Prior updates: January 2017 || May 2017 || September 2017

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA (OPEN)
HI (Ige)
NJ (OPEN)
NY (Cuomo)
OR (K. Brown)
RI (Raimondo)
MN (OPEN)
PA (Wolf)
VA (OPEN)
.
Lean I:
AK (B. Walker)
CO (OPEN)
CT (OPEN)
FL (OPEN)
IL (Rauner)
ME (OPEN)
MI (OPEN)
NV (OPEN)
NM (OPEN)
IA (Reynolds)
KS (OPEN)
MD (Hogan)
OH (OPEN)
WI (S. Walker)
AL (Ivey)
AZ (Ducey)
GA (OPEN)
MA (Baker)
NH (Sununu)
OK (OPEN)
SC (McMaster)
TN (OPEN)
VT (P. Scott)
AR (Hutchinson)
ID (OPEN)
NE (Ricketts)
SD (OPEN)
TX (Abbott)
WY (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we expect to flip; Italics denotes a Dem-held Tossup seat. These rankings mean we are currently projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats of between R+1 and D+7.

 

House Ratings: (Updated July 22; next update November 11)

Prior updates: July 2017

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CA-7 (Bera)
CA-16 (Costa)
CA-24 (Carbajal)
CA-26 (Brownley)
CO-7 (OPEN)
CT-5 (Esty)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-17 (Bustos)
NH-2 (Kuster)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (S. Maloney)
NY-25 (Slaughter)
OR-4 (DeFazio)
WI-3 (Kind)
AZ-1 (O’Halleran)
FL-13 (Crist)
FL-27 (OPEN)
IA-2 (Loebsack)
MN-7 (Peterson)
MN-8 (Nolan)
NV-4 (Kihuen)
PA-17 (Cartwright)
AZ-2 (McSally)
FL-7 (Murphy)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
MN-1 (OPEN)

MN-2 (Lewis)
NE-2 (Bacon)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
NJ-5 (Gottheimer)
NY-22 (Tenney)
NV-3 (OPEN)
TX-23 (Hurd)
VA-10 (Comstock)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-45 (Walters)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Issa)
CO-6 (Coffman)
GA-6 (Handel)
IL-6 (Roskam)
IA-1 (Blum)
KS-2 (OPEN)
KS-3 (Yoder)
ME-2 (Poliquin)
MI-11 (Trott)
NJ-3 (MacArthur)
NJ-7 (Lance)
NY-19 (Faso)
PA-6 (Costello)
PA-7 (Meehan)
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-32 (Sessions)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CO-3 (Tipton)
FL-18 (Mast)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
GA-7 (Woodall)
IA-3 (Young)
IL-12 (Bost)
IL-13 (R. Davis)
IL-14 (Hultgren)
KY-6 (Barr)
MI-1 (Bergman)
MI-6 (Upton)
MI-7 (Walberg)
MI-8 (Bishop)
MN-3 (Paulsen)
MO-2 (Wagner)
MT-AL (Gianforte)
NC-9 (Pittenger)
NC-13 (Budd)
NJ-2 (LoBiondo)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
NM-2 (OPEN)
NY-1 (Zeldin)
NY-11 (Donovan)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-24 (Katko)
OH-16 (OPEN)
PA-15 (Dent)
PA-16 (Smucker)
SD-AL (OPEN)
TX-3 (OPEN)
TX-7 (Culberson)
VA-2 (Taylor)
VA-7 (Brat)
WA-3 (Herrera-Beutler)
WA-8 (Reichert)
WI-1 (Ryan)
WV-2 (Mooney)
WV-3 (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. These rankings mean that we start out predicting a net shift in House seats of between R+4 and D+8.

 

2017 Row Officer Ratings: (Updated September 5; updates as needed through Fall 2017)

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
NYC-Mayor (DeBlasio)
NYC-Comp (Stringer)
NYC-PA (James)
VA-AG (Herring) VA-LG (OPEN) LA-PSC-2 (Baldone)
LA-Treas (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a formally non-partisan race.

Final 2016 Race Rankings

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