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Political Roundup for October 9th, 2017

Happy Columbus Day! If you’re a government employee, congratulations, you have the day off! If you’re just a normal person, then here’s some electoral news to take your mind off of what Jenny in HR is probably telling everyone that came up on your last evaluation.

Big Picture

FL: Florida is a state of counterbalancing political trends. On the one hand, you have Puerto Ricans pouring into Orlando. On the other hand, you have northern retirees pouring planned communities across the state. This article examines the latter by looking at the biggest such community, The Villages (Florida’s Friendliest Home Town! to anyone who’s watched a few hours of Fox News in the last decade). One thing that the article fails to note is the same company that built The Villages is planning an even bigger community near Panama City Beach.

Gerrymandering: This is one of those great longform pieces from Politico Magazine. In it, Jeff Greenfield discusses how many Democrats’ obsession with gerrymandering blinds them to the real state-level work that they must do if they wish to regain power.

Talkin’ Bout My Generation: Is the Republican Party in a downward spiral with young voters? No, it definitely isn’t, at least according to this WaPo article. What seems to have happened is that as younger voters have gotten less white, white young voters have gotten more Republican. There’s also some evidence that young blacks have gotten a bit more Republican, but the article doesn’t discuss that.


MI-Sen: Another week, another Kid Rock Senate poll. This one from Mitchell (not the most reputable pollster) Mr. Ritchie trailing Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) by eight points, 46-38.

MO-Sen: Former Trump Steve Bannon has been trying to meddle in some Senate primaries recently. Missouri AG Josh Hawley (R), who’s running against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year, heard that he might be on the target list and called the snake himself to charm his way out of it. It remains to be seen whether the snake will go quietly into the basket.

WY-Sen: Speaking of Steve Bannon sticking his nose where it’s in danger of being chopped off, he’s playing in Wyoming as well. He’s reportedly recruiting Blackwater founder Erik Prince to primary Sen. John Barrasso (R). I highly doubt it will work (see Liz Cheney primarying Mike Enzi a few years ago), but we’ll keep an eye on it nonetheless.

MI-08: When you’re in the wilderness, a bunch of formerly appointed officials suddenly look like good candidates. Enter Ellissa Slotkin (D), an Obama-era DoD official who is now running for Congress in her native Michigan. Slotkin is running against Rep. Mike Bishop (R) in his Lansing-to-Troy seat, and she’s raising quite a lot of money for a seat like this and early in the cycle. She’s got about $370k CoH right now. That’s phenomenal, but remember, Bishop is popular and the seat is stably R+4. If there’s a wave, I could see it falling, but it’s not likely at this point. The materials are there, though.

PA-18: With Rep. Tim Murphy (R) adding ‘disgraced former’ to the front of his name last week, there’s liable to be a special election for his Pittsburgh-area seat. Our friend Miles Coleman over at DDHQ breaks down the district by the numbers and finds that it’s likely to stay in Republican hands because of trends in the area over the past two decades.


CA-Gov: Fun fact: in Berkeley, CA, the side of town housing the big university is the one LESS in favor of seizing the means of production. Why is this, might you ask? It’s because even though California is a very blue state, and even its college students are yet bluer, they’re still less leftist than America’s biggest CrazyTown, where Jill Stein came in second place last year. Anyway, the college itself has produced a useful poll of the upcoming gubernatorial blanket primary. The poll came out as 23-12-10-9-7-4 Newsom (D)-Villaraigosa (D)-Cox (R)-Allen (R)-Chiang (D)-Eastin (D). I have to think that this race is Lt. Gove Gavin Newsom’s to lose, and he’ll certainly come in first in Top Two.


CO-Treas: Well, we know who the Republican nominee for Treasurer in Colorado is already. Incumbent Walker Stapleton (R) has decided to run for Governor, and State Rep. Polly Lawrence (R) has stepped right in and raised $90,000 already. That’s almost as much as Stapleton usually raises this time of the cycle. It more than quadruples her closest primary rival. This bodes well for the GOP holding onto the office, as there likely won’t be a bloody primary and Lawrence sounds like solid candidate who stays on-issue.

Erie-Mayor: Salena Zito thinks that the GOP might pick up the Mayor’s office in Erie, PA. I’m not convinced, but she makes a strong case. Pieces like this that focus on local races are often good reads, and this one is no exception.

Hopkins-Mayor: File this one under ‘dumbass.’ A candidate for Mayor in Hopkins, MN, an inner suburb of Minneapolis, is in hot water after after claiming that a new light rail project will bring in ‘riffraff,’ ‘ethnics,’ and shootings. however right he is about transit links sometimes bringing crime to the suburbs, this was exactly the wrong way to approach the subject. His campaign must surely be doomed after this.

Political Roundup for July 11, 2017

First off, there are three special elections in Oklahoma today, one primary and two general. The first general election is for OK-SD-44, an R+13 (2012) seat covering lower-middle-class areas in southwest OKC near the airport. A pair of prior candidates are facing off – 2014 nominee Michael Brooks-Jiminez (D) and 2016 State House nominee Joe Griffin (R). Neither was particularly impressive in his prior run; Griffin has establishment connections and the lean of the seat on his side but Brooks-Jiminez has outraised him by 5 to 1 (!). Democrats have also had a very strong run in special elections – even before the 2016 general, as budget cuts that hit education hard energized the teachers’ union. However, the Dem base in this seat is mostly low-turnout Hispanics. So there is no clear favorite in this race. The other general is for OK-LD-75, an R+16 (2012) seat in eastern Tulsa north of Broken Arrow. Realtor Tressa Nunley (R) should be favored over 2016 nominee and teacher Karen Gaddis (D), as Nunley has both the lean of the seat and better fundraising on her side, but an upset may be very possible with high Dem turnout. The primary is for OK-LD-46, an R+12 (2012) seat covering western Norman. Three Republicans are facing off; businessman and university lecturer Darin Chambers (R) looks like the slight front-runner over retired cop Charlie Samples (R) and businessman Jimmy Shannon (R), but any of the three could prevail. The winner will face 2016 nominee Jacob Rosencrants (D) in the general.


MO-Sen: Republicans have their first serious candidate into the race to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), but it definitely seems like a “C” list name for such a top-tier race. State Rep. Paul Curtman (R), who is termed-out of his exurban St. Louis seat in 2018, will run for the US Senate. Curtman was originally planning to run for MO-2 on the assumption that Rep. Ann Wagner (R) would seek the Senate seat, but when Wagner decided to run for re-election, Curtman decided to move up to the Senate race. Several more prominent Republicans, including AG Josh Hawley (R), are thought to be considering runs against the vulnerable McCaskill.

WV-Sen: As expected, AG Patrick Morrisey (R) announced his bid for Senate yesterday. Morrisey will face Rep. Evan Jenkins (R) in what could be a very competitive primary for the right to take on Sen. Joe Manchin (D). The fault lines seem to be that Jenkins is closer to establishment Republicans while Morrisey has more antiestablishment backing.

CO-Sen ’20, CO-2: Boulder DA and 2010 AG nominee Stan Garnett (D) will not run for Congress, saying he wants to finish his term as DA; Garnett endorsed 2014 SoS nominee Joe Neguse (D) for the seat. Garnett, however, will explore a run for US Senate in 2020, when Sen. Cory Gardner (R) will be up for re-election.


AL-Gov: This GOP primary continues to get even more absurdly crowded, as State Sen. Bill Hightower (R) of the Mobile area is the latest candidate into the field. Hightower joins Ag Commissioner John McMillan (R), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R), Jefferson County commissioner David Carrington (R), minister Scott Dawson (R), and businessman Josh Jones (R). PSC Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh (R) and Auditor Jim Zeigler (R) are also considering runs, while Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not announced whether she will run for a full term. Ex-State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (D) and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (D) are in or considering runs on the D side.

CO-Gov, CO-7: In a significant surprise, Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) is dropping out of the gubernatorial race today – and will not seek a seventh term representing CO-7 either. Perlmutter’s hand was likely forced by the decision of fellow Rep. Jared Polis (D), who unlike Perlmutter is independently wealthy, to enter the race; Polis now looks like the clear front-runner for the D nod. Click for our full coverage of the decision.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Vilsack CoS John Norris (D) is the latest Democrat into this crowded primary field. Norris joins State Sen. Nate Boulton (D), State Rep. Todd Prichard (D), ex-IADP chair Andy McGuire (D), ex-Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn (D), and 2014 State Auditor nominee Jon Neiderbach (D) in the primary. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is facing Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett (R) and Boone councilman Steven Ray (R) in the GOP primary.

ME-Gov: Appointed AG Janet Mills (D) will run for Governor. Mills, a former legislator, likely becomes a front-runner for the Dem nomination as she has been highly visible in office. She will face 2008 ME-1 candidate Adam Cote (D), lobbyist Betsy Sweet (D), and veteran Patrick Eisenhart (D) in the Dem primary; LePage admin official Mary Mayhew (R) and appointed State Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I) are also in the race. Many others are considering, but one candidate is bowing out of consideration; ex-State Senate Majority Leader Justin Alfond (D) announced last week he would forgo a bid.

NM-Gov, NM-2: Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (R) announced he would not run for Governor after Rep. Steve Pearce (R) entered the race yesterday. Dunn announced he was backing Pearce and considering a run for NM-2 instead, but is also keeping open the possibility of bids for re-election or a seat on the state Public Service Commission; Dunn says he will make a final decision by next week. State Sen. Cliff Pirtle (R), who ran a little-noticed primary campaign in 2010 as a Some Dude before winning his State Senate seat, is also considering an NM-2 bid.

SD-Gov: Ex-State Rep. and 2014 candidate Lora Hubbel (R) will mount a second bid for Governor. Hubbel, a gadflyish antiestablishment conservative who took a fifth of the vote against popular Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R), seems likely to be little more than a third wheel in this primary against two “A” list contenders, Rep. Kristi Noem (R) and AG Marty Jackley (R). State Sen. Billie Sutton (D) is the likely Dem nominee.

WI-Gov: State Superintendent Tony Evers (D), who won re-election earlier this year by a large margin in a low-turnout non-partisan race, is considering a run for Governor. Evers could be a stronger choice to take on Gov. Scott Walker (R) than either of the other prominent Dems considering bids, left-wing Madison Mayor Paul Soglin (D) and little-known State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D).


IL-13: Former Sen. Durbin staffer Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan (D) will seek the Dem nomination to challenge Rep. Rodney Davis (R). Dirksen-Londrigan may have establishment support from Dirksen’s network, but could face State Rep. Carol Ammons (D) in the primary. Davis has seemed entrenched in recent years as this purple seat covering the Springfield and Champaign areas has moved right.

MI-6: 2014/16 nominee Paul Clements (D) is running a third time against Rep. Fred Upton (R). Clements’s prior two runs against Upton were distinctly unimpressive, but he has received some national liberal support. This Kalamazoo-area purple seat has been trending right in recent years.

MI-8: Former DoD official Elissa Slotkin (D) will challenge Rep. Mike Bishop (R) in his light-red Lansing to exurban Detroit district. Slotkin, a former CIA agent, seems to have a good resume of national security experience, but has not lived in the district since childhood.

MN-1: Obama Defense official Dan Feehan (D) will seek Rep. Tim Walz’s (D) light-red open southern Minnesota seat. Feehan seems to have significant establishment support, but has essentially no ties to the seat (he grew up in the Twin Cities and spent the last few years in DC). He will face ex-State Sen. Vicki Jensen (D) and others in the Dem convention and/or primary. 2014/16 nominee Jim Hagedorn (R) is the only significant Republican in the race so far, but others are considering.

MO-2: Attorney Kelli Dunaway (D) will take on Rep. Ann Wagner (R) next year, and she has received the endorsement of 2016 nominee and ex-State Rep. Bill Otto (D). Democrats’ odds for this medium-red seat went down with Wagner deciding to run for re-election, but as an upscale suburban district it may still be a target.

NV-4: Las Vegas Councilman Stavros Anthony (R) will run for Congress against Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D) in this seat covering the northern suburbs of Las Vegas. Anthony, who just won re-election to his purple council seat, is a top-tier get for the GOP in this light-blue seat.

NM-1: Ex-US Attorney Damon Martinez (D) is the latest Dem into the race for this open medium-blue Albuquerque seat. Martinez has the profile to be a front-runner for the seat; he joins NMDP chair Deb Haaland (D), Albuquerque councilman Pat Davis (D), Edgewood councilman John Abrams (D), and others in this crowded primary.

NY-21: Ex-St. Lawrence County commissioner Tedra Cobb (D) will run for Congress, becoming the first candidate with elective experience in the race for the Dem nomination to take on Rep. Elise Stefanik (R). Stefanik’s odds of re-election in this light-red seat will once again be improved by the candidacy of 2014/2016 nominee Matt Funicello (G), who has routinely drawn significant vote shares.

NC-3: Craven County commissioner Scott Dacey (R) will challenge Rep. Walter Jones (R) in the GOP primary. Jones, by far the most moderate safe-seat Republican in the country, has turned back multiple GOP primary challenges in his rural eastern NC seat, though often by unimpressive margins. Dacey seems to be promising to be a more traditional conservative than Jones.

SD-AL: Democrats have a credible recruit for the open seat of Rep. Kristi Noem (R) in former judge Tim Bjorkman (D). Republicans have a primary here between SoS Shantel Krebs (R) and ex-Public Service Commissioner Dusty Johnson (R).

State & Local:

OK-Ins Comm: State Rep. Glen Mulready (R), a member of House leadership, has become the first candidate to declare a bid for Insurance Commissioner. Mulready looks likely to be front-runner for the post, which is open as incumbent John Doak (R) is termed out.

Raleigh-Mayor: Attorney Charles Francis (D) will run for mayor of Raleigh this October. Francis seems likely to run to the left of popular incumbent Nancy McFarlane (I), a center-left Indie who has generally run with Dem support in the non-partisan race.

San Bernardino-Mayor: City councilman John Valdiva (R) will run for Mayor next year, challenging incumbent Carey Davis (R), presenting the possibility of two Rs as the major candidates for mayor of the heavily Democratic city. Valdiva received an endorsement from ex-State Sen. Bob Dutton (R), now the county clerk, at his campaign kickoff.

Orange, FL-CE: Sheriff Jerry Demings (D), husband of US Rep. Val (D), will run for Orange County Executive next year. Incumbent Teresa Jacobs (R) is term-limited, and Demings looks likely to give Dems their best chance of taking over the top job in the large, blueing county covering most of the Orlando area..

RRH Elections 2016 General Election Preview Series, Part 7: Eastern House Races

Today we continue with the second installment of a two-part House preview series, covering House races in states east of the Mississippi.

Here is the full schedule:

Part 1: Northeast Legislatures
Part 2: Midwest Legislatures
Part 3: Sunbelt Legislatures
Part 4: Western Legislatures
Part 5: Local Elections and Public Service Commissioners
Part 6 (Monday, October 31): Western House Races
Part 7 (Tuesday, November 1): Eastern House Races
Part 8 (Wednesday, November 2): Western Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 9 (Thursday, November 3): Eastern Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 10 (Friday, November 4): Senate Races

Flip over for the full previews!

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Political Roundup for October 25th, 2016


Clinton: She’s already essentially measuring the drapes, and showing plenty of signs that she has no intention of keeping her promises to the Sanderistas about corporate and trade policy.

Da Governator: Ahnuld has said that if he could, he would have run for President this year. I can’t say I’d have been unhappy if he did/could, because a man most famous for collapsing the shell of the CAGOP in on itself while sporting an atrocious favorability rating and a baby momma scandal would still probably be an above average candidate in our 2016 field. He’d at least have been funny to watch flame out.

Talk-Media: In one of the more amusing political articles I’ve read in a while, a bunch of GOP insiders are gearing up to pin the blame for Trump and the 2016 loss on the “Conservative Media Groups” like Hannity, Limbaugh, O’Reilly, etc. The reasoning is that these mean people have become so influential with America’s right-wing population that they have displaced the normal media party organs and have caused them to lose control of the party’s messaging, therefore leading to Trump beating all the GOP’s “reasonable” candidates. The funniest part is that they are (in classic “Summer of Trump” fashion) either expecting Trump’s likely November loss to somehow get all these voters back to listening to them so they don’t have to change a thing, or taking a more active approach and . . . criticizing them. Because the Jeb Bush strategy of calmly explaining to Trump voters how his candidacy is harming his chance at the family office the Conservative movement worked so well. Its also quite hilarious to see a bunch of GOP media men try to bust out a “the marketplace should punish failure” analogy without a hint of irony after losing the argument over the party’s future to Donald freaking Trump. Lee Atwater is probably rolling in his grave knowing that these chumps are his successors.

Trump: In a revelation that will come as a shock to people numbering in the high single-digits, the celebrity real estate mogul used to have coke-fueled risqué parties back when that was what every rich New Yorker did with all their 80’s money.


KY-Sen: Rand Paul’s campaign has been running low on funds, mostly because he spent the overwhelming majority of all the money he’s raised in his 6 years in the Senate on his aborted Presidential bid. This has allowed Jim Gray to out-raise him this year, and has started releasing polls showing him surprisingly competitive in the state.

MI-8: Obama has endorsed Suzanna Shkreli for congress. It’s kind of surprising move, given that Obama has been essentially invisible in office for the better part of a year now and the Democrats have a better chance of flipping about 50 other seats than this one, but I guess someone finally reminded Obama that Congress is supposed to still be important to running the country. Honest question—what Democrat running for Congress right now would people NOT expect Obama to endorse? By 2016 I’m think everyone just sort of assumes that to start with. Its not like Obama has a distinct ideological profile within the Democratic party.

PA-Sen: The last of the Pennsylvania Senate Debates was yesterday, and featured more of the usual—Toomey attacking McGinty for her dishonest ads, and McGinty attacking Toomey for waffling on who he plans to support for President.

State & Local:

FL-Hurricane: Approximately 108,000 more people registered in the court-ordered extra registration period following the devastating Hurricane Matthew.

IL-Ballot-Access: David Gill’s lawsuit about the vast disparity between requirements for signatures for Independent candidates to get on the ballot versus GOP/Dem ones is still mulling along in the courts.

NY-Gov: Richard Hanna, most famous for being the sort of “Moderate Republican” that tries to ensure the GOP loses his house seat after he retires, has apparently been approached by NY Republicans to recruit him to run for the Governor’s office in 2018. They think he’d be a great candidate in the overwhelmingly D New York state, but bemoan the fact that the party he’s spent the last 2 years trying to screw over might not want him as their candidate.

Nassau-Machine: Ed Mangano (R-County Executive) suddenly decided while under federal corruption charges, to retroactively accept a huge cost-of-living raise. Because at this point the jig is up and you might as well squeeze every penny you can out of the office before they haul you away in handcuffs. Speaking of which . . .

PA-AG: It’s about damn time.

Travis-County-Commissioner: This is a surprisingly effective ad for this local race. The nerd in me approves of this concept, and I’m honestly wondering if we’ll see copycats in the future.

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 19, 2016

We will have an open thread for tonight’s debate starting at 8pm Eastern.

President – National:

Bloomberg: Clinton 47 Trump 38 Johnson 8 Stein 3

Boston Globe: Clinton 46 Trump 36 Johnson 5 Stein 2

President – States & Senate:

Colorado: Magellan has Clinton up 40-35 while Sen. Michael Bennet (D) leads Darryl Glenn (R) 47-32.

Indiana: Ball State has ex-Sen. Evan Bayh (D) up 49-43 on Rep. Todd Young (R).

Oregon: DHM research has Clinton up 43-36, Gov. Kate Brown (D) leading physician Bud Pierce (R) 46-33, and ex-State Rep. Dennis Richardson (R) leading Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian (D) 33-29 for SoS.

Vermont: We have our first Vermont poll, from VPR/Castleton, but it’s not all that great: While Clinton has a huge lead in the state as expected, the more pertinent part of the poll shows LG Phil Scott (R) leading ex-State Rep. Sue Minter (D) 39-38, which seems an implausibly high number of undecided voters for such a late date. Dems lead for all the downballot Row Officer races.

Wisconsin: Monmouth has Clinton up 47-40 while ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leads Sen. Ron JOhnson (R) 52-44.


MI-8: Rep. Mike Bishop (R) has an internal from POS with him up 49-31 on prosecutor Susana Shkreli (D).

MN-2: SUSA has businesswoman Angie Craig (D) up 46-41 on talk radio host Jason Lewis (R).

UT-4: An internal for Doug Ownes (D) has him trailing Rep. Mia Love (R) 50-40.

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 17, 2016


Monmouth: Clinton 50 Trump 38 Johnson 5 Stein 2

NBC/WSJ: Clinton 48 Trump 37 Johnson 7

ABC/WaPo: Clinton 47 Trump 43 Johnson 5

Boston Herald: Clinton 46 Trump 41 Johnson 6

Fox News: Clinton 45 Trump 38 Johnson 7

Politico/Morning Consult: Clinton 42 Trump 37 Johnson 10

GWU: Clinton 47 Trump 39 Johnson 8 Stein 2

Rand Corporation (possibly in conjunction with the Saucer People): Clinton 43 Trump 33 Johnson 10

President-States & Senate:

Alaska Pres: An AKDP internal has Trump up 37-36.

Alaska Senate: Alaska Dispatch News has Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) up huge in her re-election race, leading 2010 GOP nominee Joe Miller (L) and perennial candidate Ray Metcalfe (D) 50-19-12. The race for second will be the only question here.

Arizona: Data Orbital has Clinton up 43-42.

Florida #1: PPP has Clinton up 46-42; Sen. Marco Rubio (R) leads Rep. Fratrick Murphy (D) 44-38.

Florida #2: Associated Industries of Florida has Clinton up 44-41 while Sen. Marco Rubio (R) leads Rep. Patrick Erin Murphy (D) 49-41.

Georgia: Landmark Communications has Trump up 48-43 while Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) leads businessman Jim Barksdale (D) 50-37.

Idaho: Dan Jones has Trump up 40-30 with Johnson at 10.

Indiana: Monmouth has Trump up 45-41. Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh (D) leads Rep. Todd Young (R) 48-42 for Senate, while ex-State House Speaker John Gregg (D) leads LG Eric Holcomb (R) 50-38 for Gov. Response internals from Young have him up 40-39 and Holcomb have the Gov race tied at 42.

Louisiana: JMC for Rep. John Fleming (R) has Trump leading 45-38. For Senate, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D) has pulled into a lead with 23% with three Republicans in a pileup for second: Treasurer John Kennedy (D) at 16, Fleming at 15, and Rep. Charles Boustany (R) at 14. 2010 LG nominee Caroline Fayard (D) is in fifth with 9.

Montana: Mason-Dixon has Trump up 46-36, and HALE-EFFING-LUJAH WE HAVE AN MT-GOV POLL Gov. Steve Bullock (D) leads tech exec Greg Gianforte (R) just 47-45 in the first poll of this race since early 2015, a result much closer than the CW of this race was suggesting.

Nevada: POS for Rep. Joe Heck (R) has Clinton up 45-39 while Heck leads ex-AG Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) 47-44. Separately, JMC Analytics has the Senate race as a 40-35 Cortez-Masto lead.

New Hampshire #1: UMass Lowell has Clinton up 45-39, Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) for re-election 45-44, and Chris Sununu (R) leading Colin Van Ostern (D) 41-39 for Gov.

New Hampshire #2: WBUR/MassInc has Clinton up 41-38, with Ayotte and Hassan tied at 47 and Van Ostern leading Sununu 47-44.

North Carolina/Ohio: NBC/Marist has Clinton up 45-41 in NC and 42-41 in OH. Sen. Rob Portman (R) is up 55-37 in OH, while Sen. Richard Burr (R) and ex-State Rep. Deborah Ross (D) are tied at 46 in NC. AG Roy Cooper (D) leads Gov. Pat McCrory (R) 49-48.

Ohio: Baldwin Wallace University has Clinton up 48-38 while Sen. Rob Portman (R) leads ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 48-36.

Oregon: SurveyUSA has Clinton up 48-38, Sen. Ron Wyden (D) crushing his Some Dude opponent as expected, and Gov. Kate Brown (D) leading physician Bud Pierce (R) 46-42.

Texas: SurveyUSA has Trump up 47-43.

Utah #1: Y2 Analytics has Trump and Clinton tied at 26 with McMullin at 22 and Johnson at 14.

Utah #2: Rasmussen has Utah as a 3-way tossup with Trump at 30, McMullin at 29, and Clinton at 28. Johnson trails with 5.

Wisconsin: Loras has Clinton up 43-35 while Sen. Ron Johnson (R) leads ex-Sen .Russ Feingold (D) 45-40 (!).


AK-AL: Alaska Dispatch News has Rep. Don Young (R) leading former Public TV executive Steve Lindbeck (D) 45-30.

CA-46: An internal for ex-State Sen. Lou Correa (D) from FM3 has him leading Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen (D) 47-23 for this central Orange County seat.

CA-49: An internal for Rep. Darrell Issa (R) from POS shows him leading Doug Applegate (D) 49-38 for his northern San Diego County based light-red seat.

FL-7: A DCCC internal has Stephanie Murphy (D) leading Rep. John Mica (R) 45-43 in this purple suburban Orlando seat.

FL-13: University of North Florida has ex-Gov. Charlie Crist (R->I->D) leading Rep. David Jolly (R) 54-36 for this light-blue seat around St. Petersburg.

FL-18: An internal for Brian Mast (R) has him leading businessman Randy Perkins (D) 47-40 for this purple Treasure Coast seat.

IL-10: An internal from North Star for Rep. Bob Dold (R) shows him leading ex-Rep. Brad Schneider (D) 50-43 in this medium-blue suburban Chicago seat.

IA-1: An internal for Cedar Rapids councilwoman Monica Vernon (D) has her trailing Rep. Rod Blum (R) 45-44 in this light-blue northeast Iowa seat.

IA-3: Another DCCC internal has Rep. David Young (R) leading 2014 IA-4 nominee Jim Mowrer (D) 49-46 for this purple Des Moines seat.

KS-3: Another DCCC internal shows Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) leading Jay Sidie (D) 44-40 in this light-red suburban Kansas City seat.

MI-8: Yet Another DCCC internal shows Rep. Mike Bishop (R) leading prosecutor Susana Shkreli (D) 47-41 for this light-red Lansing to exurban Detroit seat.

MN-2: Dueling internals in this race: GBA for businesswoman Angie Craig (D) has her leading talk radio host Jason Lewis (R) 46-42 while WPA for the NRCC has Lewis up 36-33.

MN-3: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV has Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) up 49-38 on State Sen. Terri Bonoff (D) for this purple west-suburban Twin Cities district.

MT-AL: Mason-Dixon has Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) leading State Superintendent Denise Juneau (D) 53-40.

NJ-5: And one more DCCC internal has Josh Gottheimer (D) leading Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 49-42 for this light-red seat.

NY-21: An NRCC internal has Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) leading retired veteran Mike Derrick (D) 54-29 for her purple Adirondacks seat.

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