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Political Roundup for October 9th, 2017

Happy Columbus Day! If you’re a government employee, congratulations, you have the day off! If you’re just a normal person, then here’s some electoral news to take your mind off of what Jenny in HR is probably telling everyone that came up on your last evaluation.

Big Picture

FL: Florida is a state of counterbalancing political trends. On the one hand, you have Puerto Ricans pouring into Orlando. On the other hand, you have northern retirees pouring planned communities across the state. This article examines the latter by looking at the biggest such community, The Villages (Florida’s Friendliest Home Town! to anyone who’s watched a few hours of Fox News in the last decade). One thing that the article fails to note is the same company that built The Villages is planning an even bigger community near Panama City Beach.

Gerrymandering: This is one of those great longform pieces from Politico Magazine. In it, Jeff Greenfield discusses how many Democrats’ obsession with gerrymandering blinds them to the real state-level work that they must do if they wish to regain power.

Talkin’ Bout My Generation: Is the Republican Party in a downward spiral with young voters? No, it definitely isn’t, at least according to this WaPo article. What seems to have happened is that as younger voters have gotten less white, white young voters have gotten more Republican. There’s also some evidence that young blacks have gotten a bit more Republican, but the article doesn’t discuss that.

Congress

MI-Sen: Another week, another Kid Rock Senate poll. This one from Mitchell (not the most reputable pollster) Mr. Ritchie trailing Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) by eight points, 46-38.

MO-Sen: Former Trump Steve Bannon has been trying to meddle in some Senate primaries recently. Missouri AG Josh Hawley (R), who’s running against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year, heard that he might be on the target list and called the snake himself to charm his way out of it. It remains to be seen whether the snake will go quietly into the basket.

WY-Sen: Speaking of Steve Bannon sticking his nose where it’s in danger of being chopped off, he’s playing in Wyoming as well. He’s reportedly recruiting Blackwater founder Erik Prince to primary Sen. John Barrasso (R). I highly doubt it will work (see Liz Cheney primarying Mike Enzi a few years ago), but we’ll keep an eye on it nonetheless.

MI-08: When you’re in the wilderness, a bunch of formerly appointed officials suddenly look like good candidates. Enter Ellissa Slotkin (D), an Obama-era DoD official who is now running for Congress in her native Michigan. Slotkin is running against Rep. Mike Bishop (R) in his Lansing-to-Troy seat, and she’s raising quite a lot of money for a seat like this and early in the cycle. She’s got about $370k CoH right now. That’s phenomenal, but remember, Bishop is popular and the seat is stably R+4. If there’s a wave, I could see it falling, but it’s not likely at this point. The materials are there, though.

PA-18: With Rep. Tim Murphy (R) adding ‘disgraced former’ to the front of his name last week, there’s liable to be a special election for his Pittsburgh-area seat. Our friend Miles Coleman over at DDHQ breaks down the district by the numbers and finds that it’s likely to stay in Republican hands because of trends in the area over the past two decades.

Governor

CA-Gov: Fun fact: in Berkeley, CA, the side of town housing the big university is the one LESS in favor of seizing the means of production. Why is this, might you ask? It’s because even though California is a very blue state, and even its college students are yet bluer, they’re still less leftist than America’s biggest CrazyTown, where Jill Stein came in second place last year. Anyway, the college itself has produced a useful poll of the upcoming gubernatorial blanket primary. The poll came out as 23-12-10-9-7-4 Newsom (D)-Villaraigosa (D)-Cox (R)-Allen (R)-Chiang (D)-Eastin (D). I have to think that this race is Lt. Gove Gavin Newsom’s to lose, and he’ll certainly come in first in Top Two.

State/Local

CO-Treas: Well, we know who the Republican nominee for Treasurer in Colorado is already. Incumbent Walker Stapleton (R) has decided to run for Governor, and State Rep. Polly Lawrence (R) has stepped right in and raised $90,000 already. That’s almost as much as Stapleton usually raises this time of the cycle. It more than quadruples her closest primary rival. This bodes well for the GOP holding onto the office, as there likely won’t be a bloody primary and Lawrence sounds like solid candidate who stays on-issue.

Erie-Mayor: Salena Zito thinks that the GOP might pick up the Mayor’s office in Erie, PA. I’m not convinced, but she makes a strong case. Pieces like this that focus on local races are often good reads, and this one is no exception.

Hopkins-Mayor: File this one under ‘dumbass.’ A candidate for Mayor in Hopkins, MN, an inner suburb of Minneapolis, is in hot water after after claiming that a new light rail project will bring in ‘riffraff,’ ‘ethnics,’ and shootings. however right he is about transit links sometimes bringing crime to the suburbs, this was exactly the wrong way to approach the subject. His campaign must surely be doomed after this.

Political Roundup for October 3rd, 2017

Our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of yesterday’s senseless massacre in Las Vegas. Our hope is that if politicians are crass enough to want to politicize yesterday’s tragedy they could at least talk about reforming America’s mental healthcare system. That might actually do some good and help people in need.

Elections do go on though – check back at noon for previews of today’s mayoral races in Albuquerque and Birmingham. Now today’s general news:

President:

Clinton: Yes the Clinton campaign really did stop polling battleground states at the end of the 2016 campaign! The only explanation we can think of for this political malpractice is that her campaign must have been managed by Russian agents.

Governor:

MI-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Calley (R) is listening. Calley kicked off a listening tour ahead of his expected campaign for governor. Attorney General Bill Schuette is considered the front runner for the GOP nomination and recently recieved the tweeted endorsement of President Donald Trump.

NJ-Gov: If a campaign falls in the woods and there’s no one around to hear it….. Yes there is a campaign for governor in New Jersey and yes no one is paying attention to it. New Jersey’s public financing system caps how much gubernatorial candidates can spend so the amount of paid media is limited and the free media is completely ignoring the race. Maybe the GOP should have tried harder to get Joe Piscopo to run. At least someone would have paid attention to him.

TX-Gov: Texas is turning Blue! Democrats just know they will win back the Texas governor’s mansion in 2018. Even though Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is very popular and sitting on a war chest of over $41 million and the leading Democrat in the race so far is leather aficionado Jeffrey Payne. Texas is turning Blue!

VA-Gov: After the massacre in Las Vegas the NRA has announced they are postponing the start of their $750,000 TV ad buy on behalf of Ed Gillespie (R) until October 10th. Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg’s pro-gun control group is spending $700,000 to help elect Democrat Ralph Northam.

Senate:

MI-Sen: Potential senate candidate Kid Rock (R) does not like the Detroit Metro Times’s coverage of him and has taken to social media to voice his displeasure (and yes his displeasure is safe for work!).

NJ-Sen: Testimony in the corruption trial of Sen. Bob Menendez (D) revealed that the Senator got so angry at a bureaucrat he was trying to strong arm into helping Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen $8.9 billion Medicaid dispute that he hung up on him. The testimony revealed Menendez was uniquely focused on providing favors for the crooked doctor who provided Menendez with private jet flights, lavish vacations, pretty models and hundreds of thousands of dollars in political contributions.

WI-Sen: Despite recent rumors that he was considering jumping into the race, Rep. Sean Duffy (R) confirms that what he said in February still applies and that he will run for re-election in 2018 and will not run for Senate.

House:

LA-1: In case you missed it, this is the full 60 Minutes interview with Rep. Steve Scalise (R) in which he tells his harrowing ordeal after being shot in a politically motivated assassination attempt.

MN-1: Sen. Carla Nelson (R) has announced she is running for the open R+5 House seat Rep. Tim Waltz (D) is vacating to run for Governor. Nelson will face Jim Hagedorn in the GOP primary. Hagedorn is making his third bid for this seat after losing to Walz by less than 1 point in 2016 and 9 points in 2014.

NJ-7: Tom Malinowski (D), a former assistant secretary of state under President Barack Obama and a former senior director on the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton, is the latest Democrat to announced a challenge to Rep Leonard Lance (R) next year. Malinowski joins  Linda Weber, Lisa Mandelblatt,  Scott Salmon, Peter Jacob and Goutam Jois in seeking the Democrat nomination.

PA-1: Rep. Bob Brady’s (D) legal troubles could get a whole lot worse. Jimmie Moore, a former Philadelphia Municipal Court judge and one time Democrat primary challenger to Bob Brady, is co-operating with federal investigators and has admitted to concealing the $90,000 payment he alleges Brady gave him to drop out of the 2012 race for Congress. Moore has pleaded guilty to falsifying his campaign finance filings after dropping out of the race.

VA-7: Some dude former Marine pilot Dan Ward (D) raised over $260,000 last quarter continuing a trend of unknown Democrats in very uphill races raising an unbelievably large amount of money early. Rep. David Bratt was re-elected in 2016 by a 57.7% to 42.2% margin while Donald Trump was winning this district 51% to 44%. We are not sure if this is an indicator of something actually going on here or just the usual Democrat donor insane fetish for liberal military veteran candidates.

WI-1: Want more proof that Democrat donors are willing to throw their money out the window? Some dude perennial candidate Randy Bryce has raised over $1 million in the third quarter and has raised more than $1.5 million since entering the race in June. This is Bryce’s 4th run for elected office. Bryce lost a 2012 Democrat primary for state Assembly by 39 points, lost a 2014 election for state Senate by 23 points and lost a race for the Racine Unified School Board. So yes Democrats just threw $1.5 million at a guy who couldn’t get elected to his local school board to challenge Speaker Paul Ryan (R) who was re-elected in 2016 with 65% of the vote.

State, Local & Other:

NY SD-34: State Senate Democrats think they have found a candidate to primary Independent Democrat Conference leader Jeffrey Klein. Sen. Michael Gianaris, who heads the Democratic State Senate Campaign Committee, recently met with Alessandra Biaggi, the granddaughter of the corrupt late Rep. Mario Biaggi, about a primary challenge to Klein.

Detroit- Mayor: The first television ad backing Democrat Mayor Mike Duggan’s re-election bid will air Tuesday in Detroit.

WATN: Sadly for the Ohio GOP former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) will not be running for office in 2018. Rather Kucinich held a press conference on Monday to announce his endorsement of Issue 2, Ohio’s drug-pricing ballot issue.

VA-HD: Our friend Miles Coleman at DDHQ has released this excellent ratings and overview of next months House of Delegates elections in Virginia. We strongly recommend you check it out. It is really good stuff if you are trying to figure out which races to watch there.

Political Roundup for September 26, 2017

Today starting at 8ET we will have a liveblog of the Alabama Senate runoff. See our preview HERE for full details. The thread will open at 7ET for discussion of legislative specials in Florida and the mayoral race in Boston.

Senate:

MI-Sen: Rep. Fred Upton (R) attended the Mackinac Island GOP summit last week, and he appears to be moving closer to a run for the seat of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). Two other Republicans are in the race, former supreme court justice Bob Young (R) and businessman John James (R).  At Mackinac, the betting among GOP insiders is that the big name hanging over this race, rock star Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie (R), will not ultimately enter the race. Additionally, a MRG poll has Stabenow up over Ritchie 52-34.

NJ-Sen: This is a worthwhile read on possible gaming out the possible Phil Murphy (D) appointees to the seat of Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should Menendez be convicted on the corruption charges for which he’s currently standing trial. The article seems to think that Reps. Donald Norcross (D) and Frank Pallone (D) are the most likely appointees, with ethically-questionable ex-Sen. Bob Torricelli (D) a possible wild-card. This article at least seems to think that Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) is no longer interested in the seat, but that topic is still one under heated discussion. General betting seems to be that Menendez will be able to drag things out until after Gov. Chris Christie (R) leaves office at the end of the year.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Ex-State Rep. and 2010 LG nominee James Fields (D) is surprisingly running for Governor, after spending the summer exploring a run for LG. Fields looks like something of a long-shot in the primary, as he could face two better-known candidates. Ex-State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (D) is in the race and Tuscaloosa Mayor Scott Maddox (D) is considering and will make a decision by the end of the year.

HI-Gov: Kauai CE Ernest Carvalho (D) quietly announced a bid for Governor last week. Carvalho leads one of the state’s four populated counties, but Kauai contains just around 4% of the state’s population, making him likely to be a third wheel in this race. Incumbent David Ige (D) and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) seem set for a titanic primary collision, and it seems unlikely Carvalho will be a major factor (except for perhaps siphoning off votes from Kauai).

KS-Gov: Ex-State Rep. Mark Hutton (R) has become the latest candidate into this crowded primary, joining SoS Kris Kobach (R), LG and Gov-designate Jeff Colyer (R), Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer (R), ex-State Sen. Jim Barnett (R), and businessman Wink Hartman (R) in the primary. Hutton seems likely to run more to the moderate side of the moderate/conservative chasm in the state party, along with Barnett and Selzer; Kobach, Colyer, and Hartman are considered conservatives. One more moderate, ex-State Rep. Ed O’Malley (R), is also considering.

MD-Gov: Ex-AG Doug Gansler (D) will not enter the race to take on Gov. Larry Hogan (R), preferring to stay in the private sector. A recent poll from Goucher College showing Hogan with a 62/16 approval rating and up 52/41 against a generic challenger (not even a generic Democrat) may have played a part in his decision. Baltimore CE Kevin Kamenetz (D), Prince George’s CE Rushern Baker (D), State Sen. Rich Maladeno (D), and ex-NAACP chair Benjamin Todd Jealous (D) so far look like the major candidates in this race, though others are in this race.

RI-Gov: Ex-Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D) is considering a comeback bid. The liberal popular Republican Senator turned unpopular Indie Governor turned asterisk-level 2016 Dem presidential candidate has made it clear he will run in the D primary, challenging Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) from the left, instead of as an Indie. Chafee, whose term as Governor was generally regarded as plagued by mismanagement, would likely be a far more preferable opponent for any Republican than the moderate Raimondo.

WI-Gov: State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D) officially entered the race to take on Gov. Scott Walker (R) yesterday. Vinehout’s previous run in the 2012 recall didn’t amount to much, but she is still a credible candidate. Vinehout joins State Superintendent Tony Evers (D), State Rep. Dana Wachs (D), nonprofit exec Mike McCabe (D), and businessman Andy Gronik (D) in the race; so far, CW has Evers as the front-runner.

House:

MA-3: Cambridge councilman Nadeem Mazen (D) is exploring a run for the open 3rd district seat, a Merrimack Valley area seat that comes nowhere near Cambridge. However, Mazen, who grew up in the district, does have name recognition as a rare Muslim elected official. Should he enter he will join State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh CoS Dan Koh (D) in the race, with several others considering.

NC-2: 2012/2016 LG nominee Linda Coleman (D), a former Gov. Perdue administration official who ran two credible statewide races against incumbent Dan Forest (R), is tackling another contest, the NC-2 seat of Rep. George Holding (R). The seat is based in the strongly-blue trending Raleigh suburbs, but includes enough rural territory to the east to make it a fairly strongly Republican seat. However, Coleman is a credible nominee and the seat is not bulletproof, so she may have a chance at the upset.

PA-15: Nonprofit exec Alan Jennings (D) is considering a run for this light-red Lehigh Valley open seat, joining Northampton DA John Morganelli (D) in considering this race. Two lesser-known Dems are in the race but seem unlikely to emerge with establishment support. Republicans have an increasingly bitter primary between State Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (R) and Justin Simmons (R).

WA-8: State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) will mount a bid for this open seat, based in the southeast Seattle suburbs. Local Republicans seem to be pegging Rossi, who lost three statewide runs by narrow margins in 2004, 2008, and 2010, as their top candidate. Rossi’s name recognition and cred with most of the area’s GOP establishment may to get him a free pass on the GOP side of the ledger in the top-two primary. However, this looks likely to be a very hard-fought general, as this seat is PVI-EVEN and has been trending left.

WV-1: Democrats may have a contested primary in this deep-red northern WV seat, as law professor and law school administrator Kendra Fershee (D) announced her run. Fershee will face San Francisco attorney Ralph Baxter (D) in the primary; either will face a very tough race for this deep-red and ultra-Trumpist seat against incumbent Rep. David McKinley (R).

State & Local:

AL-LG: Elected state school board member Mary Scott Hunter (R) will drop out of the LG race to run for State Senate in the Huntsville area. Hunter, an antiestablishment conservative, has been embroiled in a dispute with her fellow board members over a prior state superintendent that has not left her looking good; she was considered an underdog in the primary. PSC chair Twinkle Cavanaugh (R), State Sen. Rusty Glover (R), and State Rep. Will Ainsworth (R) are in the race.

GA-SoS: Ex-Rep. John Barrow (D) is making a comeback attempt, though very much not in a race most were expecting. Barrow, who represented a conservative east-central Georgia seat until being swept out in the 2014 wave, will run for the open SoS seat. The decision is somewhat surprising as he likely could have had the gubernatorial nomination for the asking. Republicans have a crowded primary field for the seat; incumbent Brian Kemp (R) is running for Governor.

IL-AG, IL-SoS: The pieces are slowly moving into place for this race after incumbent Lisa Madigan (D) announced her intent not to run for re-election. Republicans seem to be circling the wagons around former congressional candidate and former Miss America Erika Harold (R). For Dems, State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D) and State Rep. Scott Drury (D) are in the race, along with the inspector/auditor of the Chicago Police, Sharon Fairley (D). Several other Dems are considering. One other candidate, State Sen. Mike Hastings (D), has announced he is considering runs for both AG and the SoS seat. Incumbent SoS Jesse White (D) is said to be running again, but Hastings is hedging his bets that White may pull a late retirement.

MA-LG: Comedian Jimmy Tingle (D) has entered the shotgun-wedding primary for Lt. Governor, becoming the first major candidate to enter the race to join the D primary winner in an uphill run against popular Gov. Charlie Baker (R) and LG Karyn Polito (R).

MI-AG: Ex-US Attorney Pat Miles (D) has filed for this convention race. Miles seems a credible candidate and so far looks like the front-runner for the Dem nod. State Sen. Tonya Schuitmaker (R) is in the race on the GOP side, but others are considering.

MI-SoS: One Republican is in and one Republican is out of this convention race. State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) withdrew from the race, most likely to run for MI-11; in his stead, university regent Mary Treder-Lang (R) has entered. Treder-Lang joins township clerk Stan Grot (R) and Trump campaign operative Joseph Guzman (R) in the race. 2010 nominee and law professor Jocelyn Benson (D) is considered likely to make another run for Dems.

NV-SoS: State Rep. Nelson Arujo (D) has announced his run for SoS. Arujo seems likely to be the Dem establishment choice to take on incumbent Barbara Cegavske (R), who has said she will seek a second term.

OH-Treas: University regent and former Cincinnati Mayoral candidate Rob Richardson (D) has announced his campaign for Treasurer, filling out Dems’ statewide Row Officer bingo card with a slate of four credible candidates. Richardson joins ex-US Attorney Steve Dettelbach (D) for AG, State Rep. Kathleen Clyde (D) for SoS, and ex-US Rep. Zack Space (D) for Auditor; none are expected to face serious primaries. The GOP has a primary for this open seat between State Rep. Robert Sprague (R) and Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo (R).

RI-AG: Ex-US Attorney Peter Neronha (D) will run for AG. Neronha looks like the front-runner to succeed termed-out AG Peter Killmartin (D), though State Rep. Robert Craven (D) is also considering.

SD-AG: State Sen. Lance Russell (R) has become the fourth Republican into this convention race, joining deputy AG Charles McGuigan (R), Lawrence County DA John Fitzgerald (R), and 2014 Senate candidate Jason Ravnsborg (R).

Baltimore, MD-CE: A pair of Republicans have entered this open seat race. Antiestablishment State Rep. Pat McDonough (R), a Trumpulist, and establishement-friendly Hogan Admin official Al Redmer (R) have entered the race. McDonough starts with higher name recognition, but Redmer has Hogan’s endorsement and would likely be a stronger candidate in the large suburban county that went by large margins for Hogan in 2014 and Clinton in 2016.

Political Roundup for September 22, 2017

Congress:

MI-Sen: Businessman and Iraq War Veteran John James has joined the race for the GOP nomination for US Senate. James, who identifies himself as a “conservative Republican” joins former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Young in the Republican primary. Musician Kid Rock and Sandy Pensler are considering joining the race as well.

MD-6: One Democratic candidate is taking himself out of the race. State House Majority Leader Bill Frick (D), who had been exploring a run for Congress will instead run for Montgomery County Executive. Wealthy businessman and unsuccessful 2016 MD-8 candidate David Trone, Del. Aruna Miller (D), state Sen. Roger Manno (D) and unsuccessful 2006 and 2010 MD-6 nominee Andrew Duck are all still running in the Democratic primary.

MI-11/MI-SOS: State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) is dropping out of the race for Secretary of State. Speculation is that he plans to run for Congress instead to replace Rep. Dave Trott (R), which he called an “unexpected opportunity”. Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R), state Rep. Klint Kesto (R) and businesswoman Lena Epstein are already running for the House seat, and others are considering joining the race. Shelby Township Clerk Stan Grot, Michigan State University professor Joseph Guzman, and businesswoman Mary Trader Lang are running for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State.

PA-11/PA-Sen: Berwick Councilman Andrew Shecktor (R) is dropping a mostly unnoticed campaign for US Senate, and instead running for the House seat Rep. Lou Barletta (R) is giving up to run for US Senate himself. Shecktor was a delegate to the Republican National Convention last year and considers himself a strong supporter of President Trump. Former state Revenue secretary Dan Meuser and state Rep. Steve Bloom (R) are also currently running for the GOP nomination.

Governor:

IA-Gov: Nurse and SEIU local president Cathy Glasson officially entered the Democratic nomination for governor this week. Glasson had been exploring a run for several months. She is establishing herself firmly on the left of the 7 Democratic candidates and has been endorsed by the liberal Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

WI-Gov: State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D) will make an announcement next Monday as to whether she will run for governor or run for re-election. She has given no clues as to which way she is planning to go. If she runs, she would likely join the top tier of candidates along with State School Superintendent Tony Evers, businessman Andy Gronik and state Rep. Dana Wachs.

WY-Gov: Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) has confirmed that she will not run for governor next year. She had once been considered likely to run, and had been lining up supporters earlier this year, but in recent weeks it seemed unlikely she would run, and she apparently told supporters a few weeks ago she was out. Lummis would have been a formidable candidate had she chosen to run, having run statewide before. State Treasurer Mark Gordon (R) and Secretary of State Ed Murray (R) are considered the potential frontrunners, although neither has decided yet to enter the race.

State offices:

AK-LG: Edie Grunwald, the mother of a teenager who was killed in a high-profile murder case, is running for LG as a Republican. She is criticizing a criminal justice overhaul bill approved last year, which was supported by the other 3 Republican candidates-former state Senate Presidents Kevin Meyer (R) and Gary Stevens (R), and former state Rep. Lynn Gattis (R). Grunwald said she was hoping to partner with the gubernatorial campaign of state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R), but Dunleavy recently suspended his campaign.

FL-AG: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) will not run for AG next year, and has endorsed former state Circuit Court judge Ashley Moody (R). Despite Gaetz only being in his first term in Congress, he had been mentioned as a possible candidate, and one who could have been a formidable candidate had he decided to run. Former state Rep. Jay Fant (R) is also running in the Republican primary.

IL-AG: State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D) has announced he is running for Attorney General. He is the second state legislator to announce a run since current AG Lisa Madigan (D) announced her retirement, joining state Rep. Scott Drury (D). Raoul was appointed to the state Senate in 2004, filling the seat vacated by Barack Obama when he was elected to the US Senate. Other Democrats, including state Rep. Elaine Nekritz, are considering getting in. Former Miss America and unsuccessful IL-13 candidate Erika Harold is running on the Republican side.

MI-AG: State Sen. Tonya Schuitmaker (R) is the first Republican to announce a bid for AG. Current AG Bill Schuette (R) is term limited and running for governor. Schuitmaker is term limited out of her state Senate seat as well after serving two terms. Two Democrats are running-former US Attorney Patrick Miles and attorney Dana Nessel.

RI-LG: State Rep. Aaron Regunberg (D) is exploring a run for lieutenant governor. Current LG Dan McKee (D) is planning to run for re-election, which would mean a primary challenge for the incumbent. Regunberg, who is only 27, says he hasn’t made any decisions yet whether to run.

Political Roundup for September 20th, 2017

As evidenced by the fact that someone in my North Philadelphia neighborhood actually took a minute out of their day yesterday to scrape and peel the John Kasich sticker off of my car, reality really has become stranger than an episode of Showtime’s Shameless.

Last night, Foxborough councilman Paul Feeney (D) and legislative staffer Jacob Ventura (R) won primaries for MA-SD-Bristol & Norfolk. The two will head to a general next month with retired investigative reporter Joe Shortsleeve (I).

President

2020: Democrats are clearly ready to defeat the Donald (R?) at all costs ahead of their 2020 presidential primary pileup. The succeeding failing New York Times reports that, while Bernie Sanders (“I”) plans a “very far left” approach, potential frontrunner Elizabeth Warren (D) will merely run a “far left” campaign.

Democrats’ Lurch off the Left Coast: Politico reports that many Democrats are now wondering if the recent wave of virtue signaling support of Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan could distract from their efforts to fight another attempt at repealing Obamacare.

Congress:

AL-Sen: Senate candidate and God’s Gift to the World Roy Moore (R) doubled down on his “red and yellow” comments from earlier in the week in a presidential series of tweets.

More AL-Sen: Both Mike Pence (R) and the Donald (R?) will be campaigning for Luther Strange in Alabama.

TN-Sen: Despite recent friction between the two men, Roll Call reports that the Donald (R?) has urged Senator Bob Corker (R) to seek a third term.

MI-6/MI-Senate: Ahead of a likely US Senate bid, everyone’s second-favorite Upton and Whirlpool heir Fred (R) was named a Michigander of the Year by the generally-conservative Detroit News for his bipartisan dealmaking in the midst of the bipartisan opening of the seventh seal.

Governors/State:

Democrats/State Attorneys General: Still smarting from the Duchess of Chappaqua’s 2016 loss, some leaders of the ever-strategic Democrats have yet another plan to “avenge” the would-have-been First Woman President™’s defeat by… recruiting as many female attorney general candidates as possible. Yes, really.

IL-Gov/IL-AG: North Shore State Rep. Scott Drury (D-Highwood) has dropped his gubernatorial bid to pursue the state AG position after the surprise retirement of incumbent Dictator Heiress and Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D). Drury was the only State Rep to oppose Fearless Leader Mike Madigan’s re-election bid to the speakership, and he earns major kudos from this Illinois expat for that stand.

More IL-AG: In addition to Drury, the Chicago Tribune has a Great Mentioner on others considering this now open race.

NJ-Gov: Highlighting their desperation for any victory in the age of the Donald, the Democrats are going all out in this Safe D race by sending in top fundraiser Barack Obama to stump for Phil Murphy (D), according to The Hill.

More NJ-Gov: The RGA has released a 15-second ad attacking Phil Murphy by implying that he wants to raise New Jersey’s already-high taxes, a development sure to shock Garden State voters.

TX-Gov: While Governor Greg Abbott (R) lacked a signature issue, Texas Tribune explains that Hurricane Harvey gave him the political cover to move away from the hard right direction he had reluctantly taken on the urging of Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick (R). If this sounds strange, remember that the Texas Lieutenant Governor is arguably more powerful than the Governor.

More TX-Gov/TX-20: Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) reiterated yesterday that he has no plans to run for governor. Castro (not that one, as far as we know…) will seek re-election to the US House.

Local Races:

Urban Renewal/Detroit-Mayor: The Economist lays out Detroit’s improvements under Mike Duggan as a case study of tough love. It’s shocking what happens when voters elect a leader who tells them things that they don’t want to hear after decades of electing politicians who said anything to gain power.

Seattle-Mayor: Interim Mayor Bruce Harrell, clearly not touched, says that he does not intend to serve the rest of his disgraced predecessor’s term.

Political Roundup for September 15, 2017

Senate:

MI-Sen: Businessman Sandy Pensler says he is taking a “serious look” at running for Senate. Businessman and Iraq war veteran John James is expected to formally announce his candidacy soon. The two potential entries come as announced candidate Lena Epstein is likely dropping out to run for MI-11. Former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Young is also running, with rock musician Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie still considering a run.

TN-Sen: Conservative activist Andy Ogles is the first person to announce a bid for the US Senate seat currently held by Sen. Bob Corker (R). Corker has not decided whether to seek re-election, but says he will make a decision soon. Ogles, who recently stepped down as head of the Tennessee affiliate of Americans for Prosperity, however is planning to run against Corker in the GOP primary. Ogles criticized Corker for not being conservative enough. This isn’t the first time Ogles has run for office-he finished 3rd in the 2002 GOP primary for the then-open TN-4. Former state Rep. Joe Carr (R), who has been considering running was surprised by Ogles entry into the race, but is still contemplating entering the race himself. State Sen. Mark Green (R), who dropped a previous bid for governor after being considered for Secretary of Army, from which he later withdrew from consideration, confirmed he is still considering entering the race too, despite previously saying he would not run for any higher office next year.

House:

KS-2: Former state Secretary of Commerce Antonio Soave has joined the Republican nomination for this open seat. Soave had previously indicated an interest in running, but has now officially entered the race. He joins state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, state Rep. Kevin Jones and Basehor councilman Vernon Fields in the GOP primary.

MA-3: State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) is the 2nd Democrat to announce a run for this open seat. L’Italien joins Daniel Koh, former Chief of Staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh in the Democratic primary. Other Democrats said to be considering runs include Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini and 2014 Democratic LG nominee Steve Kerrigan.

MI-11: It’s looking increasingly likely that current GOP Senate candidate Lena Epstein will drop down from her Senate bid and run for the now open MI-11. After previously saying she was considering the move, she now says she is “leaning toward” running for the House seat instead. Epstein is the co-owner of an automotive oil company.

MT-AL: Former nonprofit director Grant Kier is running for the Democratic nomination for Congress. Kier is the former director of Five Valleys Land Trust and the Bitter Root Land Trust. Billings attorney John Heenan is also running for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Greg Gianforte (R).

NV-3: Philanthropist Susie Lee has announced her candidacy for Congress. Lee had previously lost in the Democratic primary for NV-4 in 2016. Lee is the second Democrat to announce a run for this open seat-businessman Jack Love is already running. 4 Republicans are currently running.

Governor:

AL-Gov: The crowded Republican gubernatorial race has got slightly smaller. Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington is dropping out of the race. He says he will finish out his term on the Jefferson County Commission and has no plans to ever seek office again. 5 other Republicans, including Gov. Kay Ivey (R) are running.

IL-Gov/LG: Gubernatorial candidate Chris Kennedy (D) has chosen Ra Joy, the Executive Director of Change Illinois, as his running mate. Change Illinois is a coalition of civic, business and labor groups. With the choice, most of the major candidates for governor have made their running mate choices-downstate regional school superintendent Bob Daiber is the only candidate who has not made his pick.

NE-Gov: State Sen. Bob Krist has made it official-he has changed his registration from Republican to independent and will run for governor next year as an independent. Although appointed to his seat by then-Gov. Dave Heineman (R) in 2009, Krist later became an opponent of Heineman and current Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) and has increasingly become known as an outspoken moderate in the Legislature. He supported Brad Ashford (D) for Congress in 2014 after contemplating running against then-Rep. Lee Terry (R) himself. Krist said he considered running for governor as a Democrat, but could not join a party that supported abortion rights. Krist will likely try to create a 3rd party for his run as it’s easier to get on the ballot than running as an independent. No Democrats have announced bids or even known to be considering running.

State & Local:

LA-Treas.: Democratic candidate Derrick Edwards is almost assured of finishing in the top two in the Oct. 14 primary for state Treasurer and securing a spot in the runoff, as he is the only Democrat on the ballot. But he is not running a serious campaign, so his chances of winning the runoff are practically nil. An indication of how unserious his campaign is-his campaign was actually in the red by $5900 last week and had shown no contributions. He does have $528 in his campaign account now due to a loan by a relative to get his campaign account in the black. He isn’t doing much campaigning and hasn’t hired staff to help with the race. State Sen. Neil Riser (R), state Rep. John Schroder (R), and former Gov. Bobby Jindal budget director Angele Davis (R) are battling for the other runoff spot.

NV-LG: Former State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D) announced Wednesday she is running for Lieutenant Governor. Democrat Chip Evans also announced his candidacy the same day, setting up a primary between the two. The two have one thing in common-both have lost to Rep. Mark Amodei (R) in unsuccessful campaigns for NV-2; Marshall lost in the 2011 special election, and Evans lost last year. Marshall served two terms as State Treasurer before making an unsuccessful bid for Secretary of State in 2014. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) had been planning to run, but demurred after Marshall appeared to be the preferred candidate of the Nevada Democratic establishment.

Political Roundup for September 14, 2017

As President Trump (R->D->R->D) appears to have found his deal making groove, it is time for today’s roundup:

President / National

Social Media:  The recent liking of pornographic materials by a staffer of Senator Ted Cruz (R) using an official account highlights one of the pitfalls of the use of social media by staffers while they are managing their boss’s account.

Clinton-Trump:  President Trump cannot stop pointing out the obvious about Crooked Hillary Clinton (D) and her  inability to take any blame for losing to him last year.

Congress

BernieCare:  The great savior of the proletariat, Senator Bernie Sanders (Socialist), has proposed a single-payer health insurance bill that is getting a mixed reception on Capitol Hill with many Congressional Democrats noting the obvious, this bill does not even fit within their distorted view of fiscal reality.  That said approximately 1/2 of the House Democratic caucus and 1/3 of the Senate Democratic caucus support Bernie’s boondoggle.  The Democratic leadership seems less than impressed though.  How long until the Berniebots start a holy war over this?

FL-Sen:  Governor Rick Scott (R-More Popular the Longer in Office) is building more good will with his strong leadership during Hurricane Irma, which is receiving near universal praise.  Scott is expected to run for US Senate against Senator Bill Nelson (D).

MI-Sen/MI-11:  With Representative Dave Trott (R) realizing there are more productive things to do in life than be a member of the House of Representatives, Senate candidate Lena Epstein (R) might drop down to MI-11.

MI-11:  Michigan’s Gongwer News Service looks at the Democrats uphill odds in MI-11.

CA-45:  Representative Mimi Waters has a 7th Democratic challenger in Greg Ramsay whose joining a very crowded field in to face Waters head to head.  You got to wonder if Waters would be smart to field a token Republican and hope she makes it to the top 2 against the token Republican plant.

AZ-Sen:  Senator John McCain (R-Tough) will continue with his duties as he receives treatment for brain cancer.  Best of luck to the warrior McCain

NM-Sen:  Former Senator Pete Domenici (R) died Wednesday morning at the age of 85.  He served in the US Senate for 6 terms.  Our thoughts are with his family.

Political Roundup for September 13, 2017

Last Night:

Bill DeBlasio (D) easily won renomination in NYC, while all NYC Council incumbents and essentially all non-incumbent establishment favorites prevailed.

In Charlotte, councilwoman Vi Lyles (D) ousted incumbent Jennifer Roberts (D) without a runoff. In Cleveland, incumbent Frank Jackson (D) and councilman Zack Reed (D) advanced. In Toledo, incumbent Paula Hicks-Hudson (D) and Lucas County Treasurer Wade Kapszukiewicz (D) advanced. Incumbents Byron Brown (D) in Buffalo and Lovely Warren (D) in Rochester were renominated.

In other NY Races, State Sen. George Latimer (D) won in Westchester-CE, county commissioner Laura Curran (D) won in Nassau-CE, and State Rep. Steve McLaughlin (R) narrowly won in Rensselaer-CE. In the biggest upset of the night, university police chief Larry Zacarese (R) beat State Sen. Phil Boyle (R) for Suffolk-Sheriff.

In legislative specials, Democrats picked up OK-LD-46 by a wide margin as well as a state house seat in NH. McGee (R) and Rehner (D) advanced in MS-LD-102, while O’Hara (R) won the nomination in OK-SD-37.

Senate:

MI-Sen: Rep. Fred Upton (R) is apparently quietly considering a run for the seat of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (R). Upton, a centrist from a purple seat in southwest Michigan, has been termed-out as Energy and Commerce chair but is not ready to retire. Upton could face a tough primary if Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie (R) pulls the trigger on a run for this seat; however, if Ritchie stays out, Upton would be a strong favorite against the little-known Republicans in the race already.

VA-Sen: Former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina (R) will not run for the Senate seat of Tim Kaine (D). Prince William CE and self-hating Yankee Corey Stewart (R) now looks like the strong favorite for the nomination.

Governor:

AK-Gov, AK-LG: State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) surprisingly announced yesterday that he is ending his gubernatorial run due to an unspecified health condition. Ex-State Sen. Charlie Huggins (R), a former State Senate president who retired in 2016, stepped in the same day to fill the breach. State Rep. Mike Chenault (R) also filed to run for a spot on the GOP ticket, though he has left his options open for either a Governor or LG run in the shotgun-wedding primary. Dem-backed incumbent Bill Walker (I) may also face opposition from a Democrat like Ex-Sen. Mark Begich (D) or State Sen. Bill Wielechowski (D).

IL-Gov, IL-LG: After his prior choice of running mate, Chicago councilman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (D), was forced to withdraw over his support for the anti-Israel BDS movement, Biss has now chosen State Rep. Litesa Wallace (D) of Rockford as his new LG choice. Wallace could be a way for Biss to curry some favor with State House Speaker Mike Madigan (D), who is thought to favor wealthy businessman JB Pritzker (D) in this crowded primary.

ME-Gov: Sen. Susan Collins (R) says she will decide on a run for Governor by the end of September. Collins would likely be a strong favorite in a general election if she were to run, but she may face difficulty from her right in the GOP primary.

MI-Gov: As expected, AG Bill Schuette (R) has launched his campaign for Governor. Schuette has had a long political career, beginning with a Congressional stint in the 80s, a Senate loss in 1990, a State Senate stint in the 90s and a judicial stint in the 2000s before two terms as AG. He is thought to be a slight front-runner in the GOP primary against antiestablishment conservative State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R) and physician Jim Hines (R); Schuette’s most serious likely rival, LG Brian Calley (R), has not yet declared for this race but is widely though certain to run.

House:

NY-15: Outgoing NYC Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito (D) is rumored to be considering a run for this South Bronx-based Congressional seat, where incumbent Jose Serrano (D) is thought to be considering retirement. Mark-Viverito hails from Spanish Harlem in Manhattan, but has represented part of the Bronx. State Sen. Jose Serrano Jr. (D), State Rep. Michael Blake (D), and NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres (D) are thought to all be interested as well.

PA-11: 2016 AG candidate Joe Peters (R) is exploring an entry into this crowded primary for the Harrisburg-to-Lackawanna Valley red seat. Peters would join State Rep. Stephen Bloom (R), Corbett admin official Dan Meuser (R), and businessman Andrew Lewis (R) in the primary.

PA-15: Two new candidates are in this race. State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) will run for Congress, potentially creating a more establishment-friendly option to take on State Rep. Justin Simmons (R), whose entry into the race pushed Rep. Charlie Dent (R) out of seeking re-election. Lehigh County commissioner Bill Leiner (D) also announced a run, potentially giving Dems a credible option for the light-red Lehigh Valley open seat.

TN-6: Rep. Diane Black (R) is considering resigning her House seat early as she runs for Governor. If Black resigns quickly a special could be triggered for this deep-red central Tennessee seat. Former state Agriculture Commissioner John Rose (R) and State Rep. Judd Matheny (R) are in the race, and talking head Scottie Nell Hughes (R) is considering a run.

TX-32: Obama aide Lillian Salerno (D) has become the third former Obama admin official in the race, joining Colin Allred (D) and Ed Meier (D). Allred, a former NFL player, so far looks like the DCCC’s choice recruit to take on Rep. Pete Sessions (R) in this Hillary-won north Dallas seat.

WV-1: Attorney Ralph Baxter (D), who runs a large law firm based in San Francisco but “lives” in Wheeling, is set to announce a run against Rep. David McKinley (R) in this deep-red northern WV seat. Baxter has been mentioned for several races before but looks set to pull the trigger this cycle; he faces long odds as this historically-D seat has become more Republican up and down the ballot.

State & Local:

ID-AG: AG Lawrence Wasden (R) will run for re-election, and will not give up his seat to run for Governor or ID-1.

MA-LG: Obama White House aide Quentin Palfrey (D), who now works as an administrator at MIT, has become the first Democrat into this shotgun-wedding LG primary.

MO-Aud: Attorney and former university regent David Wasinger (R) will run for Auditor, entering the race after State House Speaker David Richardson (R) abruptly declined a bid. Local official Kristy Apprill (R) is also considering a run.

NV-AG: State Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford (D) will run for AG, giving Dems a top-tier recruit for this seat, which is expected to be open as incumbent Adam Laxalt (R) is seen as near-certain to run for Governor. Laxalt’s top deputy, ex-State Rep. Wes Duncan (R), is likely to run for this seat.

DC-Mayor: AG Karl Racine (D) will not run for mayor, likely meaning that incumbent Muriel Bowser (D) will have a relatively easy ride to a second term next year.

Seattle-Mayor: Mayor Ed Murray (D) abruptly resigned yesterday after a fifth person, his cousin, accused him of prior sexual molestation when the cousin was a minor. Murray had declined to run for re-election after several others revealed underage sexual molestation allegations. The open seat election this November is between establishment liberal ex-US Attorney Jenny Durkan (D) and ultra-left city planner Cary Moon (D).

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