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Political Roundup for August 14th, 2017

Check back at 3pm today for our AL-Sen and UT-3 previews!

Big Picture

Third Party: I really want to figure out which consultants are about to make a lot of money on this pipe-dream, though I already have a few suspects. To explain, a bunch of Never Trumpers and a few Democrats are trying to organize a third party around Alaska Governor Bill Walker (I). As with all other such efforts, this one will prove futile, but will employ a few people for long enough that they can get that new BMW or pay their ridiculous mortgage until they can find another job because Jeb! didn’t get elected President. If this sounds like a No Labels redux to you, you’re on the right track. Oh, and if any actual politicians come out of this, they’ll likely run as Democrats, just like those that came out of No Labels did.

Congress

AL-Sen: Trafalgar is out with a poll of the Alabama special Senate election Republican primary, and they show a 35-23-20 Moore-Strange-Brooks race. That’s a much closer race for the second runoff spot than had previously been shown by most other pollsters.

AZ-Sen/AZ-09: It looks like we have a classic switcheroo in progress; this time it’s between Rep. Kirsten Sinema (D) and Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D). Sinema will likely run against Sen. Jeff Flake (R) and Stanton, who was previously thought to be in the Senate race, will drop down and run for Sinema’s likely-to-be-vacated House seat.

ME-Sen: We all know that PPP likes to cause as much trouble for Republicans as possible with their poll questions, so of course they polled Sen. Susan Collins (R) against ‘Someone Else’ in a hypothetical primary. Collins trails 28-62 in the impossible match-up, which makes for a catchy headline. However, it doesn’t really mean much unless someone decides to run against her. Making that situation happen is I’m sure what PPP wanted to do.

MI-Sen: Well, I can’t believe I’m writing this sentence, but it seems that if Kid Rock (R) decides to enter the race for Senate in Michigan, he’ll have establishment backing. Senate Leadership Fund, which is a McConnell-backed group, has been making approving noises about a Rock run. What’s even crazier is, I think that’s the smart move. Politics is strange, folks.

WV-Sen: Rumors are swirling about a plan to flip a Senate seat by giving the Secretary of Energy position to Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and have newly-minted Republican Gov. Jim Justice appoint a Republican in his place. The only problem that I see with this plan is that they’ll have to find current Sec. of Energy Rick Perry another job.

CO-07: I smell a rat. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D), who dropped out of the gubernatorial race and announced his retirement at the same time, is now looking at running again for his current seat. I’m guessing that someone else wants to be set up for the seat and can’t do it in 2018, so they’re somehow convincing him to stay one more term to give them time to get ready. They’d also likely be someone involved with his gubernatorial campaign, or they would have already been running. Maybe he just changed his mind, but I doubt it.

PA-07/PA-08: This one is pretty funny. The DCCC has set up websites denouncing Reps. Patrick Meehan (R) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R) for not holding town halls. I don’t know about you guys, but setting up attack websites is such a waste of time and money that I consider any campaign that does it (and promotes it with Google text ads!) to be losing almost by default. They can’t find great candidates, so they’re flushing away donor money trying to drive up Meehan’s and Fitzpatrick’s negatives.

DCCC: Pop the popcorn, folks! This is a good one. After D-Trip Chairman Rep, Ben Ray Lujan (D) stated that the party would not rule-out backing pro-life candidates, a brush-fire broke out among the left-wing commentariat. This one isn’t over. I’m fully expecting Lujan to eventually cave.

Governor

FL-Gov: State Sen. Jack Latvala (R) has officially announced his long-rumored gubernatorial campaign. Latvala is known as something of an independent wildcard (some would say RINO) in the legislature. If nothing else, his primary against State House Speaker Richard Corcoran and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam won’t be boring now that he’s involved.

State/Local

FL-HD-44: The FLDP has got to be one of the worse state parties in the country relative to its state’s PVI on either side of the aisle. Here’s a case in point: A state representative got a judgeship, so his seat is open. It’s Republican-held, but Hillary won it by 6,000 votes. However, several credible Republicans are raising large sums and campaigning hard for it, while one Democrat has gotten in and raised less than $4,000. Read the article. It’s a great rant on this point.

Voter Fraud: As a wise man once said ‘when you play stupid games, you get stupid prizes.’ That’s definitely true for the subject of this article. In order to meet his quota for registering voters on behalf of the Virginia Democratic party, a college student at James Madison University in Harrisonburg decided to just register everyone on a walk sheet. He made up many of the details, including Social Security Numbers. He also didn’t check to make sure that the voters were still alive, so he ended up registering 18 dead people. The local registrar’s office caught one of the forgeries and ran with it. The forger has been given 100-120 days in jail after a plea agreement. It’s worth noting, though, that if the registrar hadn’t recognized the name of someone she knew was dead, these dead people would have been newly registered and ready to vote.

Political Roundup for August 9th, 2017

About Last night, Democrat Phil Miller won IA-LD-28 by a 54% to 44% margin. Trump won seat 58% to 37%. In MO-LD-50 Sara Walsh (R) won by a narrower than expected 52% to 48% margin. In MO-SD-28 Republican State Rep. Sandy Crawford won.

In primaries, Marquette councilwoman Sara Cambensy (D) won the primary for MI-LD-109 with 37 percent of the vote. She will face Republican Rich Rossway in General Election. Tenisha Yancey (D) won the primary for the Safe D MI-LD-1, and Spartanburg councilman Rosalyn Henderson-Myers (D) won the primary for the Safe D SC-LD-31. Businessman Paul Rosino (R) prevailed in OK-SD-45, while retired cop Ross Ford (R) narrowly won in OK-LD-76 over the prior incumbent’s widow. Ford will face teacher Chris Vanlandingham (D) in the general.

President:

Kasich: An American Research Group poll has Gov. John Kasich leading President Trump in a hypothetical New Hampshire Republican presidential primary 52% to 40%.  Unfortunately ARG did not do a three way poll of a hypothetical primary in which John Kasich plays spoiler allowing Trump to win again with 40% of the vote.

Governor:

CO-Gov: State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) has found a novel way around Colorado’s restrictive campaign finance laws that limits donations to $1,150. Stapleton is holding off announcing his run for governor in order to raise unlimited cash for a super PAC-style group called Better Colorado Now. Stapleton’s situation highlights the problems with restrictive campaign finance laws that encourages the outsourcing the cost of running a political campaign to outside third party political groups.

FL-Gov: Despite serious questions that arose, a Florida grand jury has cleared Tallahassee Mayor and Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum of criminal liability after an investigation into his use of a city-funded email program used to send private and political messages.

KS-Gov: Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) made it official and announced that he will run for Governor in 2018. Colyer is poised to takeover as Governor of Kansas when current Gov. Sam Brownback (R) finally gets confirmed to be ambassador at large for international religious freedom. Running for a full term as a sitting governor should give Colyer a leg up in the Republican primary where he could face a crowded field that includes Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer (who entered the race earlier this week), businessman Wink Hartman, former state senator Jim Barnett and entrepreneur Ed O’Malley

NY-Gov: Oh, Miranda! Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is taking the threat of a Cynthia Nixon primary challenge serious enough to offer to sit down with her and discuss education issues. Nixon meanwhile declined to rule out a bid for Governor during an appearance she made on the Today Show.

ME-Gov: Sen. Susan Collins (R) may want to do some more polling before deciding if she wants to run for Governor. According to a PPP poll of a potential GOP primary former LePage health commissioner Mary Mayhew would lead Collins in a hypothetical matchup, 44 percent to 33 percent. Collins would score just a mere 28% against a hypothetical “someone else”. We would advice taking this poll with a very big grain of salt as it is common practice to release polls like this to either motivate or demotivate a potential candidate from running.

TX-Gov: Texas Democrats still do not have a candidate for governor. No major Democrat has shown any interest in losing challenging Gov. Gregg Abbott (R) who has nearly $41 million in his campaign account and strong approval ratings. So far only former “International Mr. Leather” Jeffrey Payne (D) has announced his intentions to run.

VA-Gov: A new poll released by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University shows Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) with a slight 42% to 37% edge over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra gets 6% in this matchup while 13% are undecided.

WY-Gov: Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) confirmed she will not run for Governor. Incumbent Gov. Matt Mead (R) is term limited and many people had thought Lummis would be a shoo-in to succeed him. Without Lummis running the field here seems to be wide open.

Senate:

AL-Sen: President Donald J. Trump (R) has endorsed appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) ahead for the upcoming special election. Assuming President Trump doesn’t start a nuclear war between now and August 15th this should help Sen. Strange bigly.

IN-Sen: ICYMI, fourth-term Rep. Todd Rokita (R) will join the primary for Sen. Joe Donnelly’s (D) Senate seat. We had full coverage of this yesterday.

MI-Sen: Kid Rock (R) has made it official! Robert Richie aka “Kid Rock” has left his two-decade affiliation with the Warner Music Group and signed on with Music City’s BBR Music record label. He is also contemplating a US Senate run.

NV-Sen: A Strategic National poll has  Sen. Dean Heller (R) leading perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian in a Republican primary by a 38% to 34% margin win 27% undecided. Of course this poll was taken before the Senate Leadership Fund PAC put any money into reminding Nevada voters about Tarkanian’s $17 million bankruptcy and other less than flattering business dealings.

VA-Sen: Nothing says you are a man of the people and a real Virginian more than flying out to the Hamptons and having a $10,800 a head fundraiser at the mansion summer home of New York Giants co-owner Jon Tisch, which is why Sen. Tim Kaine (D) plans to spend the last week in August on the South Fork of Long Island, NY raising some serious money.

WI-Sen: The NRSC has launched radio ads in the Wausau and La Crosse markets attacking Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over an opioid scandal in Wisconsin Veterans Administration Hospital that Sen. Baldwin tried to help sweep under the rug.

WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin doesn’t “give a s–t” if his liberal voting record costs him re-election.

House:

KY-6: Politico Magazine looks at Democrats fetish for getting behind the candidacy of US veterans. The latest example of this in in KY-6 where long shot formerly unknown Air Force pilot Amy McGrath was able to raise over $200,000 in 36 hours thanks to a viral video of her talking about serving as a combat pilot. McGrath faces State Sen. Reggie Thomas (D) in the primary. Both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney won KY-6 by double digits and Rep. Andy Barr (R) cruised to an easy 22 point win in 2016.

MT-AL: Newly elected Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) will get his first Democrat challenger. Some dude attorney John Heenan (D) announced he will run for Congress.

NJ-11: After the DCCC’s top recruit Assemblyman John McKeon (D) announced that he would not run for Congress, Woodland Park Mayor Keith Kazmark (D) announced he is “officially exploring” a run for the seat held by Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R). Donald Trump won this district by 1 point in 2016 and Frelinghuysen cruised to an easy 20 point victory in a seat that his ancestors have represented in one capacity or another since 1720.

NY-19: A pro-Obamacare group has launched a new digital ad aimed at freshman Rep. John Faso (R). No word on how much they intend to spend on the hit job digital ad.

OH-16: Former Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (R) recently met with the NRCC about a possible run for the seat Rep. Jim Renacci (R) is vacating to run for governor. 28 year old heir force state Rep.Christina Hagan (R) and State Rep. Tom Patton (RINO) are currently running for this seat.

TN-2: Financial advisor Brad Fullington (R) has become the third Republican to enter the open race for the safe R seat of retiring Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R). Fullington is not nearly as well known as  Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett and State Rep. Jimmy Matlock who are also seeking the GOP nomination.

WI-4: Milwaukee County Circuit Judge David Borowski (D) is considering challenging Rep. Gwen Moore (D) in a Democrat primary next year. Moore has not faced a serious challenge in years and easily defeated felon and (former state Senator) Gary George in her last two primary elections.

State, Local & Other:

Syracuse-Mayor: The September 12th Democrat primary for mayor of Syracuse has narrowed from 7 candidates to 3. Democrat organization endorsed City Councilor Joe Nicoletti, City Auditor Marty Masterpole and NY State Dept of Labor official and former Dean of Students at Syracuse University Juanita Perez Williams made the ballot while 4 others either dropped out, couldn’t get enough signatures or had enough of their nominating petition signatures invalidated by challenges to be knocked off the ballot (an art form in NY State). Syracuse has not elected a GOP mayor since 2001 and 55% of voters are Democrats, so the winner of the Democrat primary will be the favorite in November.

Political Roundup for August 3, 2017

Polling Update: Tonight is our final night of calling for our poll of the Republican special election primary for US Senate in Alabama. We are targeting to have the results of the poll ready to be published on Monday but there is a chance we could have it sooner so be sure to check in with us tomorrow! As a reminder our polls are unlike any other organization or news source since they are 100% funded by crowdsourced donations and put together by volunteer political junkies for political junkies. We still need your help to cover the cost of this effort! If you would like to help and to be a part of this poll please go to our donation page: https://www.paypal.me/RedRacingHorses and contribute to our poll fund today!

President:

Patrick: Barack Obama’s inner circle is urging former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to run for President in 2020. Since leaving the Governorship Patrick has been raking in the big bucks at Bain Capital.

Zuckerberg: Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been touring around the country and has hired Democratic pollster Joel Benenson to conduct research for the Zuckerberg-Chan Initiative. Benenson is a former top adviser to President Barack Obama and the chief strategist to Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential campaign. In January Zuckerberg hired David Plouffe, campaign manager for Obama’s 2008 presidential run, as president of policy and advocacy for the Zuckerberg-Chan Initiative. Ken Mehlman, who ran President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, also sits on the board.

Governor:

CO-Gov: Colorado Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne (D) is exploring a run for governor. Lynne was appointed Lt Governor in May of 2016. When she was appointed to her post Lynne stated that she had no ambitions to replace term limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). Clearly someone with lots of ambition to be governor is not above lying about those ambitions to get the job she wants. Rep. Jared Polis, former state Sen. Mike Johnston, former Colorado Treasurer Cary Kennedy and businessman Noel Ginsburg are also running on the Democrat side.

NY-Gov: Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D) is considering a primary challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) next year. Miner is termed out of her current office and will be without a job next year. Miner was once a close ally of Gov. Cuomo. Cuomo picked her to serve as co-chairman of the state Democratic party in 2012 but she left the post after a falling out with Cuomo over her criticism of his policies. Former one-term Hudson Valley state Sen. Terry Gipson (D) is also considering a primary challenge to Cuomo. On the GOP side, another Syracusian, State Sen. John DeFrancisco (R), is considering a run. DeFrancisco was kept out of the Majority Leader’s job through Cuomo’s intervention on behalf of his intraparty rival, State Sen. John Flanagan (R).

OK-Gov: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb (R) is leading the money race in the quest to become the next governor of Oklahoma. Lamb has raised more than $2 million which is significantly more than any of the other 13 candidates currently running. Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett (R) reported raising $181,000 while former State Attorney General Drew Edmondson is the top fundraiser among the four Democrats in the race collecting $300,211 so far.

TN-Gov: Rep. Diane Black (R) will run for Governor. This will open R+26 TN-06. We had full coverage on this yesterday.

Senate:

AL-Sen: Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund super PAC is up with $435,000 in TV ads attacking Judge Roy Moore (R) for raking in over $1 million in salary from his own charity The Foundation for Moral Law. You can see the ad HERE. The Senate Leadership PAC which is supporting appointed incumbent Luther Strange (R) had been focusing their fire on Rep. Mo Brooks (R).

IN-Sen: State Rep. Mike Braun (R) is assembling a campaign team and will announce his Senate candidacy in the next week or so. Rep. Luke Messer (R) entered the race last week while Rep. Todd Rokita (R) and Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill are also looking at running. Democrat incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly is viewed as one of the more vulnerable Democrats next year.

MA-Sen: In the all important hunt for Curt Schilling’s endorsement state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R) seems to have won out over Fran Drescher’s ex-husband Shiva Ayyadurai (R). Not sure if any of this means anything in terms of beating Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) but as the last Republican to hold this seat would say, Bqhatevwr!

MI-Sen: Kid Rock’s ex-girlfriend Sheryl Crow has written a song about his potential senate run. The song entitled  “Dude I’m Still Alive” features catchy lyrics like  “At least the guy’s not 90 / In his 32nd term / but a pole in the Lincoln bedroom / is bound to make some people squirm.” No word yet if Sheryl plans to write a song about John James.

MO-Sen: Looks like the GOP will get its man! Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) will announce he will open an exploratory committee to run for Senate on Friday. Hawley is the GOP’s top recruit to take on vulnerable Democrat incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill.

NE-Sen: Sen. Ben Sasse (R) has wisely turned down the job of heading the Heritage Foundation. After the internal discord there that lead to Jim DeMint getting pushed out, Sasse was smart to say “No thanks”.

NJ-Sen: Just a friendly reminder we are less than five weeks away from the start of Sen. Bob Menendez’s corruption trial.

House:

IA-3: Former US Treasury Department economist Austin Frerick (D) has become the 7th Democrat to enter race vs Rep. David Young (R). If no candidate gets more than 35% of the vote in the primary the results are thrown out and a convention will pick the Democrat nominee. This is how David Young won the GOP nomination in his first run for office.

MD-6: State Sen. Roger Manno (D) and businessman David Trone (D) have entered the race for Democrat Rep. John Delaney’s now open seat. Manno is the Maryland Senate majority whip and Trone spend more than $13 million of his own money on his campaign for the 8th Congressional District last year. They joins Maryland House Majority Leader C. William “Bill” Frick (D) and Del. Aruna Miller (D) in the race for the Democrat nomination.

NY-11: Army veteran some dude Max Rose is the fifth Democrat to announce a challenge to Rep. Daniel Donovan (R). He joins some dude former cop Mike Decillis, some dude bond trader Zach Emig, some dude retired boxer Boyd Melson and some dude Michael DeVito Jr. in seeking the Democrat nomination. Unlike most of the other Democrat challengers Rose has actually lives in Staten Island (albeit only for the last 2 years). As is the way in New York politics the local party bosses will probably sort this out and narrow the field as to who will earn the right to lose to Dan Donovan.

NY-21: Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello, who ran for Congress in 2014 and 2016, announced he will not run again in 2018. Funiciello received 11% of the vote in 2014 and 4.4% in 2016 in elections that Republican Elise Stefanik easily won with 55.2% of the vote and 63%.

PA-1: Millennial Nonprofit Executive Omar Woodard (D) might primary Democrat party boss Rep. Bob Brady. Woodward is black and Brady is white. PA-1 is minority-majority with Whites making up 40% of the district, Blacks 35% and Hispanics 16%. Brady is currently under federal investigation for allegedly bribing a potential primary opponent $90,000 not to run. No word yet on how much cash Brady is offering Woodward to forgo his campaign.

PA-4: Rev. George Scott (D) has launched a campaign for the Democrat nomination to challenge Rep. Scott Perry (R) in this R+11 district.

TX-23: Former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones (D) has launched a run vs Rep. Will Hurd (R) in what is probably the only truly competitive congressional district under the current lines in Texas (there is an outstanding federal court challenge to Texas congressional lines). Although Jones is the first major Democrat to announce former Obama official Judy Canales, former federal prosecutor Jay Hulings, and former Rep. Pete Gallego are considering running as well.

VA-10: Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) primary opponent perennial candidate Shak Hill has been posting articles about penis enlargement and proper techniques for prostate milking on his website throughout the summer. While we are not sure that this will be a successful campaign strategy it is good to remember that it will be 2018 so who the heck knows anymore.

State, Local & Other:

AK-LG: State Sen. Gary Stevens (R) is the first candidate running in the shotgun-wedding primary for Lt. Governor. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) is as of yet the only significant declared gubernatorial candidate for Republicans.

AR-SoS: 2014 nominee Susan Inman (D) is running again for the open seat. She lost to term limited incumbent Mark Martin by 25 points in 2014 and lost a bid for Arkansas HD-32 in 2016 by 13 points.

CO-Treas: State Sen. Kevin Lundberg (R) is the fourth Republican to announce a run for Treasurer. He joins fellow state lawmakers Justin Everett and Polly Lawrence and Routt County Treasurer Brita Horn into the GOP primary. Current state Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) is term-limited and is expected to jump into the Colorado governor’s race. The only Democrat to announce a run so far is state Rep. Steve Lesbock.

Mobile, AL- Mayor: Incumbent Mayor Sandy Stimpson (R) leads ex-Mayor Sam Jones (D) 53-43; Stimpson’s lead comes from getting close to a quarter of the black vote in the roughly half-black, half-white city. The election is August 22nd.

Birmingham, AL-Mayor: Incumbent Mayor William Bell (D) is on pace to win outright with 54% in the latest poll. Former Auburn football player Chris Woods (D) is a distant 2nd at almost 17%. Assistant city attorney and Birmingham Board of Education member Randall Woodfin (D) is close behind in 3rd at 14%, with no other candidates above 10% in voter support.

NYC-Mayor: Mayor Bill deBlasio has asked for $2.9 million in taxpayer money to fund his primary campaign against two little known Democrat opponents who have raised barely $124,000 in campaign cash. This is clearly a much better use of government money than fixing the damn subways.

Political Roundup for July 31st, 2017

President

Moulton: Weeks ago I predicted that there would be yet more long thinkpieces about Democrats who have no shot whatsoever at garnering their party’s nomination for President in 2020, yet would get coverage to drive clicks for lazy journalists. Well, it’s happened again, and much sooner than I thought. The offender this time is once again the normally-awesome Politico Magazine, one of the few sources for long-form political pieces that aren’t meditations on how everything is racist and misogynistic (I’m looking at you, Slate). This time their subject is Rep. Seth Moulton (D) of Massachusetts. Moulton is an impressive rising star within the party. To be fair, he could very well be President one day. He’s good looking, charismatic, and has a military background. He’s fairly moderate and speaks well. None of that changes the fact that you can’t win a Presidential nomination as a mostly-unknown House member in the age of mass primaries. Moulton is impressive, interesting, and worth covering, but this presidential click-bait nonsense is already getting out of hand more than two years before the Iowa caucuses.

Congress

MI-Sen: For the first time in a while, we have a new edition of your favorite head-scratching and shrugging gameshow, Dueling Polls! MIRS commissioned a poll from Target Insyght that shows Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) leading musician and expletive connoisseur Kid Rock (R) 50-42. However, a poll from the right-leaning pollster Trafalgar has the blue-collar balladeer leading the senator 49-46. The second poll also finds that Mr. Rock would have a commanding lead in the Republican primary were he to seek the nomination.

WV-Sen: Here’s a great piece by David Byler over at RealClear explaining why Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is getting multiple top-tier challengers despite being in pretty good shape for reelection. Politicians are generally ambitious, and if a state is very red or very blue, there’s often a bottleneck of talented politicians in the dominant party (especially if the state has few congressional districts). When you  have a winnable office that’s somehow still held by the other party, oftentimes a lot of talented politicians from the dominant party will crawl all over each other because they’re ambitious and/or they think the state’s lean will carry them to victory without having to wait for another member of their party to retire.

FL-23: I feel bad for Carla Spalding (R). She’s Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s (D) Republican opponent for 2018. Spalding is trying to make hay of the recent strangeness involving the congresswoman’s IT guy who has been arrested for various cybercrime against members of Congress and their staff, but it shouldn’t effect the outcome of the election one iota. Even if good ole DWS screwed up royally when she hired this guy, the district is just too Democratic for her to lose barring allegations of personal wrongdoing on her part.

IL-06: Naperville Councilwoman and bookmonger Becky Anderson (D) has declared against Rep. Peter Roskam (R). She’s decidedly C-list. However, there are already five other Democrats in the primary. crazier things have happened than a municipal official winning a crowded primary with a small plurality. As to whether she can beat Roskam, the district moved to the left in 2016, but was originally designed as a Republican votesink. Anything can happen, especially if there’s a wave, but Roskam is popular and a strong campaigner.

Governor

CT-Gov: This is getting ridiculous. State Sen. Toni Boucher (R) has announced her candidacy for Governor in Connecticut. That’s fine, except that she’s one of about a jillion candidates who are considering or have announced to run as a Republican to succeed the retiring and  unpopular Gov. Dan Malloy (D). Look guys, having good choices in a primary is great, but a clowncar with lots of mudslinging is only going to help make it harder for the GOP to win a blue state like Connecticut.

OH-Gov: Speaking of clown cars, he Republican primary for the Buckeye State’s highest office would seem to have a confirmed driver. That man is AG and former Sen. Mike DeWine, and it’s not even close. The results show a 42-18-11-5 race with SoS John Husted, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, and Rep. Jim Renacci behind define in that order. It’s a Tarrance poll for an outside group, so caveat emptor, but it’s not surprising given the former senator’s long history in statewide politics.

State/Local

CT-SoS: While most of the action is in the Republican gubernatorial primary, the Nutmeg State does have other offices up for election in 2018. Among them is Secretary of State, a position for which businesswoman Karen Cusick (D) has just announced. Cusack is the first into the race on the Democratic side and will likely get the jump on fundraising. A Republican could beat her if the gubernatorial contest goes well, but right now she looks like the favorite to be the new SoS.

ID-Treas: Restauranteur Tom Kealey (R) has announced his candidacy for Treasurer. I can’t find out whether or not he belongs to either the otter faction of the Labrador faction, but either way he’s likely to have company in the primary due both to factional infighting and the bottleneck effect.

MD-PG-CE: The tantamount-to-election Democratic primary for Prince George’s County Executive is heating up quickly. A few notable names have already entered, but they face stiff competition now that State’s Attorney (DA) Angela Alsobrooks has entered the race. It’s by no means a done deal, but DAs tend to be strong candidates and generally get a lot of free airtime.

Bailey, NC-Mayor: The small town of Bailey, NC has a problem: no one wants to be it’s next mayor. The town of 569 outside of Raleigh had enough candidates file for city council seats, but no one filed to lead the city after the current mayor announced his retirement. The filing deadline has been extended, but with such a small pool of possible office-seekers, who knows if anyone will bite?

International

Pakistan: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan has been forced to resign after the country’s supreme court ruled that he was ineligible for the office due to investigations into possible corruption. He also cannot compete in next year’s elections. Sharif was a crusader against the power of the country’s military, and this likely strengthens their hand. Opponents of the military will have to find a new standard-bearer if they wish to retain control of parliament.

Political Roundup for July 24th, 2017

Big Picture

Black Turnout: Steve Phillips over at the New York Times makes a great point; Democrats lost in 2016 partially because of a plummet in black turnout from 2012 levels, and they’re still ignoring it. Recent investigations have shown that the group that’s most fired-up against Trump and the GOP are white liberals. That surely helps with youth turnout a bit (though today’s young whites are ridiculously Republican for being young people), but it does nothing to address the problem of black turnout. Hispanic turnout isn’t an issue, or at least it wasn’t in 2016, but without Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, a key Democratic bloc is back to pre-2008 levels of participation. If Democrats can solve that problem, then 2018 looks pretty good for them. If they can’t solve it, then there’s no telling if uber-turnout from already-high-turnout white liberals will carry the day for them.

Congress

AZ-Sen: State Sen. Kelli Ward (R-Star Chamber) has really outdone herself this time. She called on the cancer-stricken Sen. John McCain (R) to resign. If she just wanted him to have more energy and time to live out what is likely to be his last months, or maybe she wanted Arizona to have more consistent representation, that would be one thing. But no, that’s not the reason she gave. She wants him to resign because she believes that she’ll then be his obvious replacement. No words…

MI-Sen: I’d rather have Sen. Kid Rock (R) than Sen. Kelli Ward (R). Tim Alberta over at Politico doesn’t actually think that’s such a crazy scenario. He points out that while there’s quite a bit of great opposition research material on Robert Ritchie, he also has a unique and authentic appeal. He combines libertarian social views with a populist, working class aesthetic. If I were a Democrat, that would secretly scare the living crap out of me.

MO-Sen: It seems that the Show Me State Kabuki Theatre will be open for a few more months, as former Sen. John Danforth (R) says that AG Josh Hawley (R) is running, but won’t announce until September or October.

IN-02:  Buried in this informative-to-the-layman-but-obvious-to-us piece about the DCCC possibly ‘targeting’ (read: throwing darts at a board of fairly safe seats) Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) is an interesting tidbit; the D-trip is polling the race. That’s extra-interesting, because if they’re polling here, they’re probably doing a batch of the suckers. It will be really interesting to see which ones they do and don’t release pretty soon to generate activist/candidate interest in the race and media hits.

PA-06/PA-07: New Politics, a supposedly nonpartisan organization that works to elect veterans and ‘national service alumni,’ whatever the hell that means, has decided to kick off the 2018 cycle… by endorsing two Democrats in adjoining districts. They’ve endorsed Chrissy Houlahan (D), who is a veteran and is running against Rep. Ryan Costello (R) in PA-06. Interestingly they also endorsed Paul Perry (D), who is a teacher whose parents are veterans and is running against Rep. Patrick Meehan (D). I don’t know about y’all, but I smell a rat here. My guess is that some Democrat or other thought ‘what if we had an organization that endorsed the ‘helping professions’ that we like to shovel money into, but that also added veterans and called itself nonpartisan to maintain an air of legitimacy?’ I have no proof, but I’d lay odds that that’s what this is.

Governor

NJ-Gov: The headline on this Marist poll is about hated Gov. Chris Christie (R) is. That’s fair enough, but the interesting thing about the poll is that it actually shows better numbers than usual for gubernatorial hopeful Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno (R)… in that she’s only losing to former Goldman guy Phil Murphy (D) 54-33. Ouch.

WI-Gov: Well, crap. After whiffing early on in their recruitment efforts, Badger State Democrats have scored a top recruit in Superintendent Tony Evers. Evers is elected statewide to the nonpartisan office, but it was well-known that he was a Democrat. I’d still give Gov. Scott Walker (R) the edge because his approvals aren’t terrible and Wisconsin is still the political equivalent of the Somme, but his reelection is going to be a bit harder now.

State/Local

CA-Democrats: After a bitter convention fight and an even more bitter disputation of the 62-vote result, Eric Bauman has been confirmed as Chairman of the California Democratic Party. Cue the conspiracy theories from the Bernie crowd. I doubt that Kimberly Ellis is going away.

Denver-School Board:  We here at RRH like to get down in the weeds of local politics when possible (ask me sometime about a certain township trustee in rural Indiana). Ward Leaders in Philly aside, this is about as local as it gets. The Denver teacher’s union is pissed; really pissed. They’ve spent the last several cycles losing races to reform-minded progressive candidates (full disclosure; my second cousin was one of those reformers) who are definitely lefties but care more about the children actually getting an education than whether or not the teachers can live in the nicer planned community when they retire to Florida. The union is now clearing field the for its chosen candidates, something it hadn’t always done before. I’m not sure that it will do them any good, but we’ll see.

PA-Commonwealth Court: Christine Fizzano Cannon (R), who is already a lower-court judge, has received the endorsement of the construction unions in her bid to become a Commonwealth Court judge. This is a good reminder that unlike in the story above, not all unions are necessarily left-wing (especially private ones).

International

Alberta: Well, it seems that hatred of the other side really does heal all wounds. After the schism on the right in the Canadian province of Alberta allowed the socialist NDP to take 60% of the provincial seats there with 41% of the vote, the two parties have reunited. Wildrose (actual conservatives) and the Progressive Conservatives (moderates) have each voted more than 95% in favor of merging as the United Conservative Party. Wildrose has likely succeeded in moving the conversation to the right, as it aimed to do. Since both parties combined for over 50% of the vote in 2015 (which was historically low), I don’t see how they lose the next election barring another schism or an economic boom.

Political Roundup for July 19, 2017

Polling Update: RRHelections is planning to poll the Republican special election primary for US Senate in Alabama and we need your help to make it happen! Unlike any other organization or news source our polls are funded by crowdsourced donations and put together by volunteer political junkies for political junkies. If you would like to help make this poll happen please go to https://www.paypal.me/RedRacingHorses and donate to our polling fund to be a part of this effort and to help make this happen!

Last night in RI-SD-13, Attorney Dawn Euer (D) won the Dem primary for this blue seat. In Bermuda, the center-left PLP took over from the center-right OBA, winning 2/3 of the seats in parliament.

President:

Trump: PPP has polled the 2020 Presidential race. They find Trump trailing all Democrat challengers: Trump 39% to Biden 54%; Trump 39% to Sanders 52%; Trump 42% to Warren 49%; Trump 40% to Booker 45%; Trump 40% to Harris 41% and Trump 40% to Zuckerberg 40%. Sadly PPP did not test the man most likely to be Trump’s 2020 Democratic opponent so we don’t know how Kanye West would fare vs Trump if the election was held today. Please remember this is a PPP poll and they gave Democrats an 11-point advantage in partisan registration so salt to taste.

Hillary: The one Democrat who is still more unpopular that Donald Trump is Hillary Clinton. According the the latest Bloomberg National Poll Hillary Clinton has a 39% approval rating which is 2 points lower than the 41% they had President Trump at.

Governor:

Ratings: Morning Consult is out with their Governor’s ratings. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is America’s most popular Governor with a 71% approval rating. He is followed by Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan who sports a 68% approval rating. Newly installed Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has a 64% approval rating. On the other end of the spectrum is America’s favorite beach comer Chris Christie who’s approval rating seems to have improved to 25%.

MI-Gov: Ambulance chaser Mark Bernstein (D) will not run for Michigan governor and urged Democrats to unite behind former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer’s campaign. Bernstein, who is independently wealthy and well known from his “Call Sam” TV ads, was being recruited by some Democrats to run for Governor. 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Geoffrey Fieger is still considering another run for Governor and we here at RRH hope that the Democrats will unite around him.

NY-Gov: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has $25.7 million in his campaign account for his 2018 re-election effort. Cuomo raised $5.1 million during the latest filing period between January and mid-July. He spent $1.35 million over that period. But while Cuomo’s cash on hand his going up his poll numbers are going down. Last week’s  Quinnipiac University poll showed that Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s poll numbers has plummeted over the last two months. Cuomo’s job performance numbers dropped to a negative 43-55 rating, down from 51-46 in May. Cuomo’s re-elect numbers dropped from 53% in May to 46% now. Cuomo’s drop  in the polls has largely been driven by downstate voters as the Summer of Hell on NYC transit continues to get worst. Gov. Cuomo runs the MTA and voters are starting to blame him for the problems with New York City’s mass transit system.

OH-Gov: It looks like Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Head Richard Cordray (D) might enter the race for governor. His term at the CFPB does not end until July of 2018 and there is some speculation that he might announce his candidacy for governor in September. On the one hand it would be great to get the regulation loving progressive Cordray the heck out of CFPB as soon as possible, on the other he could be the best candidate the Democrats could get for Ohio governor. As of now, the Democratic candidates for governor include former Rep. Betty Sutton , former State Rep. Connie Pillich, State Sen. Joe Schiavone, and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.

TX-Gov: Former LGBT “International Mr. Leather” Jeffrey Payne (D) has launched his campaign for Governor vs Gov. Greg Abbott (R). RRH rates TX-Gov as Safe R.

Senate:

AL-Sen: Hoover businessman Dom Gentile (R) ended his campaign for Senate and endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks (R). Gentile’s wife has been diagnosed with breast cancer and he wants to spend more time with her. On the Democrat side Vietnam veteran Brian McGee ended his campaign as well and endorsed former US Attorney Doug Jones.

CA-Sen: If transgender former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner runs for US Senate, Jenner will have the backing Michael Jackson’s daughter Paris Jackson. Jenner’s campaign could be a very unusual one in which Jenner puts together an unusual coalition of support.

MI-Sen: “I believe if you work your butt off and pay taxes, you should be able to easily understand and navigate the laws, tax codes, health care and anything else the government puts in place that affects us all”. This is a platform and a principal that all Republicans should be running and governing on. The fact that Kid Rock is the only one talking about this tells you all you need to know about the current state of American politics and society.

MI-Sen: Detroit businessman, West Point Graduate and Iraq war veteran John James has filed to run for U.S. Senate and has released THIS web video. But since John James was never married to Pamela Anderson no one really seems to care.

MO-Sen: Sources say Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) is expected to start an exploratory committee to run for US Senate vs Sen. Claire McCaskill. Hawley would be the GOP’s marque recruit to run for this Senate seat and leads McCaskill in the last two publicly released polls.

House:

CA-48: Nestle executive Michael Kotick (D) will run for Congress against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) next year. The 33 year old Kotick seems like a bit of a some dude and he will join a half a dozen other candidates who have announced they want to challenge Rohrabacher.

MI-6: Another candidate has entered the race for Democratic nomination for the right to lose to face Kate Upton’s uncle Rep. Fred Upton (R). Dr. Matt Longjohn will join Paul Clements, David Benac, Rich Eichholz and Eponine Garrod in seeking the Democrat nomination. Upton beat Clements by 22 points in 2016 and 15.5 points in 2014.

NJ-5: Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (R) is being floated as a possible challenger to freshman Democrat Rep. Josh Gottheimer. Lonegan, who is legally blind, gained some fame for his role in the 2003 documentary Anytown USA. Since then Lonegan has lost two GOP primaries for New Jersey Governor, the 2013 Senate special election to Corey Booker and the 2014 GOP primary in the south Jersey based NJ-3. Lonegan is a movement conservative and was an early endorser of Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign.

UT-3: The air wars are starting for this August 15th GOP special election primary. Former Provo Mayor John Curtis (R) released THIS ad of him riding a motorcycle and shooting a hand gun while Chris Herrod (R) has THIS ad attacking chameleons and bragging about his time in Russia. Tanner Ainge (R) intends to release his first ads soon.

State, Local & Other:

MI-Redistricting: A partisan Democrat group masquerading as a good government group called “Voters Not Politicians ” is trying to get a redistricting constitutional amendment on the 2018 Michigan ballot. The groups proposal would establish a 13-member independent citizens commission on which so called “independent voters” would have five members, and the two major parties would each have four. Instead of focusing on non-partisan immovable factors like county lines and other municipal boundaries when drawing districts the new commission would seek to create districts that are politically competitive by gerrymandering district lines across municipal boundaries to achieve a partisan balance different than the ones that naturally occur.

NYC-Mayor: Mayor Bill deBlasio (D) reported raising $428,473 for his re-election bid during the most recent campaign-finance filing period, expanding his cash-on-hand to $2.5 million and his total fund-raising count to $4.9 million. New York City taxpayers will give the Mayor another $536,000 in city matching funds because paying for Bill deBlasio’s campaign TV ads is a much bigger priority for the City than fixing the damn subways. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, the presumptive Republican nominee, raised nearly $250,000 for the most recent filing period and spent $74,097 during that time. She’s eligible for $134,804 in matching funds and has raised a total of more than $344,000.

NY-Corruption: Former New York State Senate Majority Leader and convicted felon (or did I repeat myself) Dean Skelos (R) still has over $843,301 left in his campaign account which he can use to pay for lawyers to appeal his federal corruption conviction. Former New York Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D) recently had his corruption conviction overturned and Skelos is hoping to have same luck. In all Skelos has spent more than $1.6 million in campaign contributions on his legal defense.

NY-Corruption: NYC Councilman Ruben Willis (D) flew threw a tantrum during his corruption trial. Willis isn’t a rookie to legal proceedings. When he was elected to the New York City Council he had two arrest warrants out on him for crimes he committed in the 1990s.

Political Roundup for July 14th, 2017

President:

Impeachment: Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA) has filed the paperwork to impeach Trump for Obstruction of Justice. This will go nowhere in the House of course, mostly because I’m pretty sure Obstruction of Justice requires something more serious than “Fired the politically compromised head of the FBI”, but this is probably more about boosting Sherman’s left-wing creds than an actual attempt to impeach Trump. Pelosi and the smart Democrats have been doing all they can behind the scenes to squelch this movement, as at the very least it is playing all their cards way too early, and at worst . . . well they remember what impeaching Clinton over completely provable and unambiguously true crimes did to the GOP in the late 90s.

Trump-Poll: Morning Consultant has a poll out with some surprisingly good numbers for Trump and the AHCA, with the President at an astoundingly-good 46-50, and the AHCA at 40/47, in both cases buoyed by unusually good numbers with non-whites. I’m pretty sure Trump would kill someone on 5th avenue for a 39%/19%/38% showing with Hispanics, Blacks, and “Other” respectively in 2020.

Iowa: A PPP “Informed ballot poll” has found that Trump and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst are both surprisingly popular in what is essentially a poll designed to show up in fundraising and morale-boosting emails against AHCA. But if PPP is going to release stuff like this, I’m going to be cheeky and selectively pick what I think is the most interesting part of it–Trump does best with the 18-45 demo. It’s not even like this is a complete fluke sample size either, as Ernst has a more classic Republican age lineup, being narrowly underwater with the young and up double-digits with everyone older. Clearly this means Trumpism is a winning issue with today’s youth, a PPP poll has confirmed it!!!

Senate:

VA-Sen: Corey Stewart, fresh off almost upsetting former RNC chair Ed Gillespie for the GOP nod for Governor, announced a bid for Senate in 2018. Stewart is probably most famous for being what amounts to a Yankee-transplant Confederate apologist, and would almost certainly be prohibitively toxic in a state where the Democrats have won literally every statewide election since 2009. This seat is very low on the GOP priority list, but Stewart is exactly the sort of candidate National Democrats want to have running so as to use him to “Akinize” the GOP elsewhere by nationalizing some of his gaffes or policy statements.

IN-Sen: So it turns out Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN), fresh off blasting carrier for moving jobs to Mexico, has a family business that does the exact same thing. This is far from a deal-breaker of course, but expect it to show up in ads for this top-tier GOP senate target next year.

MO-Sen: It seems that either Hawley is extremely fond of having people calling him to encourage him to run for office, or he’s putting on an astoundingly elaborate kabuki theater performance to justify running for Senate so soon after his first election to statewide office. Seriously, I haven’t seen this many “Run X Run” stories for politicians who have been “rumored to be considering” running for over 20 years.

MI-Sen: Apparently Kid Rock is seriously in it to win it. Points for hitting the right message for a campaign from the first steps I guess, but I have my doubts his candidacy is actually going anywhere. Then again everyone said the same thing about the current President of the United States 2 years ago, so I really have no idea.

State, Local, & Other:

CA-Gov: Jon Chiang (D), current CA State Treasurer, is going to host a presumably tongue-in-cheek panel at San Diego Comic-con about how cities would deal with cleaning up after a hypothetical Superhero battle. Chiang has always been kind of a nerdy politician, so I guess this makes sense, but the move is still quite odd to me. Maybe he’s going for some kind of Imgur-meme-based approach to a campaign?

Higher-Ed: National Review has an interesting article saying that a post-Trump GOP would probably wind up being unified by someone aggressively targeting the higher-education industry in a similar way to how Trump took on the media. I honestly can’t wait, mostly because I think a lot of the problems with America’s economy can be traced back to warped incentives inside our university system, and also because I agree with one of the article’s conclusions–that like the media, higher-ed is too wrapped up in its own cozy ideological bubble to be able to actually do anything about it.

Political Roundup for July 13, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks (R) has become a strong supporter of President Trump, but during last year’s presidential primary season, he criticized Trump, calling him a “serial adulterer” and saying he couldn’t be trusted. Now some of those anti-Trump comments are being used against him in an ad by the Mitch McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund. Context is important however-Brooks was a supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and was attacking Trump at a time when the two were still fighting each other in the primaries. The McConnell-backed PAC is supporting Sen. Luther Strange (R).

FL-Sen: Gov. Rick Scott (R) has not announced a run for US Senate yet, but it’s said to be an “open secret” that he is planning on running and it’s just a matter of making it official. Waiting a long time to get in would not be a surprise-Scott waited until April of 2010 to enter the Republican nomination for governor, although strategists say he will probably need to enter the Senate race a little sooner. No other major Republican is apparently considering the race, meaning the nomination is likely Scott’s for the taking.

IN-Sen: Rep. Todd Rokita (R) has raised about $1 million for the Senate race against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) next year and has $2.3 million cash on hand. As his campaign noted, it is more money than Sen. Todd Young (R) had raised at the same point two years ago for his successful race. Rep. Luke Messer (R), who is also considering a bid for Senate, has not released his 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers, yet but has a strong fundraising team, including Greg Pence, brother of the vice president and ended the previous quarter with a slight cash on hand lead.

MA-Sen: State Rep. Geoff Diehl (R) plans to make it official on Aug. 1 that he is running for US Senate. He will face scientist, entrepreneur and self-proclaimed “inventor of e-mail” Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination to face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D).

MI-Sen: Entertainer Kid Rock(real name Robert Ritchie) claimed yesterday that a website, kidrockforsenate.com suggesting that he is running for US Senate is indeed real and promises a “major announcement in the near future”. Former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Young, Jr. and businesswoman Lena Epstein, former co-chair of Donald Trump’s Michigan campaign are both running already for the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).

House:

CA-7: Business executive and Marine veteran Andrew Grant (R) is challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D). The seat is one of the few offensive opportunities Republicans have in California-Bera has never won by more than 3 points in his 3 terms. Bera won by 2 points over Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones (R) in 2016 as Hillary Clinton won the district by 11 points.

NM-2: State Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) of Alamogordo is the first Republican to jump into this open seat race. Herrell is considered one of the more conservative members in the state House. State Sen. Cliff Pirtle (R) of Roswell and Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (R) are also considering getting into the Republican primary. Attorney David Baake and military veteran and progressive activist Tony Martinez, both of Las Cruces are running for the Democratic nomination. Both entered the race before Rep. Steve Pearce (R) decided to run for governor-other more high-profile Democrats may now decide to run as well.

NY-24: Community leader Anne Messenger has become the first Democrat to announce a run against Rep. John Katko (R). Katko has fared very well in what had been a competitive district-defeating Rep. Dan Maffei (D) by 19 points in 2014 and Colleen Deacon (D) by 21 points last year as the district shifted to the right at the presidential level with Clinton winning it only by 4 whereas Obama won it in 2012 by 16.

WA-8: Jason Rittereiser (D), a former King County Deputy Prosecutor is running to challenge Rep. Dave Reichert (R). Hillary Clinton won the district by 3 points last year, and the DCCC is targeting the seat, although Reichert won by a fairly comfortable 60-40 margin last year  and has not been seriously challenged since 2010. Issaquah City Council member Tola Marts (D) is running as are military veteran Poga Ahn (D) and former candidate Thomas Cramer (D).

Governor:

CO-Gov: After Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) bowed out of the race this week, now LG Donna Lynne (D) is reconsidering an earlier decision not to run. Lynne was appointed to the Lieutenant Governor’s office last year after then LG Joe Garcia (D) resigned to take another job and she said in her first news conference after being appointed that she did not intend to run for governor. Lynne’s decision to reconsider indicates some nervousness among Democrats that their current primary field, including Rep. Jared Polis (D), former state Sen. Mike Johnston (D) and former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D) may pull the party too far to the left. Some supporters of Perlmutter have reached out to Lynne to get her to run. In news on the Republican side, Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R), who recently filed for divorce from her husband Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is sounding more serious about running. She would join an already crowded field of Republicans running or expected to run.

CT-Gov: Two candidates, one Democrat and one Republican have announced they are joining this open seat race. Middletown Mayor Dan Drew (D) is the first major Democrat in the race-several others are considering. Former US Comptroller General David Walker is joining the race for the Republican nomination-Walker was an unsuccessful candidate for the GOP nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2014 and considered running for president as a third party candidate in 2012, running on the theme of fiscal responsibility. Walker joins Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, Trumbell First Selectman Tim Herbst and state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan in the Republican race.

NM-Gov/Sen/NM-1: LG John Sanchez (R), announced yesterday he would not run for governor, endorsing Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Sanchez was one of the few other big-name Republicans thought to be considering the race-Albuquerque Mayor Richard Barry (R) may still get in. Sanchez is still thought to be considering running for US Senate against Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), or going for the open NM-1 seat, being left open by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who is running for governor.

WI-Gov: Businessman Andy Gronik is the first Democrat to enter the race for governor against Gov. Scott Walker (R). Among other policy proposals, Gronik says he would seek to repeal Act 10, the law that eliminated collective bargaining for public workers and prompted numerous protests and recall elections for state legislators and Walker himself. Many other Democrats are still considering, including State School Superintendent Tony Evers, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D) and several others.

Political Roundup for June 21st, 2017

In case you missed it yesterday, Republican Karen Handel worked out an unexpectedly strong win in GA-6, and Republican Ralph Norman had an unexpectedly close win in SC-5. Republicans and Democrats each held a seat in the SC State House as well. What does it say about politics that the Democrats did better in the seat Clinton lost by close to 20 points that they basically ignored than the one she lost by 1 that they poured over $30 Million in? Maybe that going all-in on a political nobody who looks like he’s just finishing up his freshman year of college isn’t a good idea? Or perhaps,(more seriously) that the higher the special election turnout, the worse the result for the already-fired-up Democrats, as SC-5 saw something like 1/3rd as many votes as GA-6 did. Regardless, expect a day of Democrats spinning about how GA-6 didn’t really matter and Republicans spinning about how GA-6 meant everything.

Now, on to the news:

President:

CBS-Poll: A CBS poll has Trump down to his lowest numbers yet at 36% approval. His handling of the Russia probe seems to be his weakest point so far, as he’s not doing too bad on the other major issues tested. Also, Americans believe Comey over Trump by about 2:1, and slightly favor believing that the probe is a grave matter of national security over it being a political hatchet job.

2020: Morning Consultant did a poll of the favorability #s of just about every candidate seriously suggested for the 2020-Dem Nomination. The vast majority of them are unknown right now, with the exceptions being Warren (Slightly Positive) and Biden (Very positive). The only notable exceptions here are Sanders and of course Clinton 2020, because as they say the third time’s the charm!

Holder: Eric Holder, probably best remembered as the AG Obama replaced with Loretta Lynch, is apparently “re-entering the political fray” and is talking about running for President in 2020. Because at this point I think the Democrats saw the 17-candidate pileup of the 2016-GOP race and said “Hold my kale-smoothie–watch this”.

Congress:

MI-Sen: Former Michigan Chief SC Justice Bob Young all but formally announced his intent to run against Debbie Stabenow for Senate in 2018 at a local Republican event. Young, who is Black, sounded off on a very Constitutional-originalist note, and stressed his record of reducing the size of the judiciary in Michigan. He joins fellow Republican Lana Epstein in the GOP primary for this 2nd-tier GOP Senate target next year.

NV-3: GOP State Senator Scott Hammond has announced that he is running for this Suburban Vegas district that the GOP lost last year. The current freshman Democratic Incumbent Jackie Rosen is already running for Senate (Because the early bird gets the Senate Seat I guess?), and the seat was narrowly carried by Trump, making it a top GOP target for 2018. Hammond was a famous advocate for Nevada’s charter school bills, and gets a free shot at this seat since his State Senate seat isn’t up until 2020.

Other:

CO-alot: Mike and Cynthia Coffman, probably the closest thing the county has had to a political power couple since the Clintons limped off the national stage last year, are getting a divorce. While it’s not quite known why they are getting divorced (and kind of rude to pry), the couple was widely seen as the GOP’s best potential candidates for statewide office. We’ve got no idea what this means for Cynthia’s rumored Governor bid, or Coffman’s house seat, but we’ll hopefully find out relatively soon.

HI-St-House: In what has become commonplace for America’s weakest political party, the Hawaii GOP has lost another one of its members to the Democrats, this time former State House Minority Leader Beth Fukomoto, who was ousted from her leadership post for calling Trump racist and a Bully at the Hawaii Women’s March back in January. This is amazingly not the first time the GOP has lost its chamber leader to the Democrats, but since the state house is now 76D-5R, let’s hope we can manage to hold onto our 6% of the seats there.

Immigration: The Atlantic of all places has a good article detailing how the Democrats went from being sort of pro-immigration with major reservations to being absolutely 100% no-exceptions pro-immigration, and how it probably cost them the presidency. Remember a time when Obama felt a “Flush of patriotic resentment” at the idea of Mexican immigrants waving around Mexican flags at demonstrations?

Political Division: Here’s some interesting, if arguably flawed data. The voter study group commissioned a poll detailing the political ideology of the average Trump & Clinton voter. To summarize, Clinton’s supporters are pretty ideologically homogeneous Liberals, whereas Trump’s were split between Economic Conservatives and Populists. Notably, this poll also suggests that Libertarianism as an ideology is basically dead in the water in the US right now, which will come as no surprise to anyone paying attention to the political trends of both parties in the last 2.5 years or so.

Political Roundup for June 5th, 2017

Later today we’ll have a preview for the gubernatorial and legislative primaries in New Jersey and CA-34 Runoff. Until then, gorge yourselves on electoral goodness with me down below.

Congress

OH-Sen: As the article points out, this one escalated quickly. After Cleveland banker Mike Gibbons (R) jumped into the Buckeye State’s senatorial campaign, he immediately started attacking primary opponent State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) for being a career politician. Gibbons also raised $250,000 without self-funding in just a few days. Mandel already has $600,000, but almost half the gap is already gone. What looked like a sleepy primary is getting interesting. Whichever man wins will face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election.

MI-Sen: Though businesswoman Lena Epstein (R) has already launched her bid against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), she may not be alone for long. This article suggests that both businessman John James (R) and state Supreme Court Justice Bob Young (R) are also testing the waters.

Governor

MN-Gov: If you’re an Outstate DFLer, you just got some great news; Rep. Rick Nolan (D) will run for reelection and not for Governor. This leaves fellow Outstate congressman Tim Walz (D) with his best possible shot at the nomination and keeps an incumbent running in a Trump district at the same time. That’s a win-win unless you’re a Republican, in which case it sucks.

NV-Gov: Though he hasn’t yet announced his expected campaign for Governor next year, AG Adam Laxalt (R) is already piling-up cash. His campaign account now has $600,000 on hand. That’s quite a decent amount for this early in the games in a fairly small state.

TN-Gov: Speaking of things sucking for people, it probably doesn’t feel great to be State Sen. Mark Green (R) right now. Green was running for Governor, but was then nominated to be Secretary of the Army, causing him to leave the race. Then after someone unearthed some fairly tame comments he made a few years ago about gay rights, he dropped out of contention for that role. Now, he has decided to not resume his campaign. He cites the fact that other campaigns were already rising to fill his anti-establishment niche.

State/Local

ME-IRV: Because the ranked-choice ballot initiative that passed narrowly in 2016 was invalidated as against the state constitution by the Maine Supreme Court, supporters are now asking the legislature to amend the state constitution to achieve the same goal. I’m not holding my breath on this one.

PA-Redistrict: A Democratic state senator from the Pittsburgh area has proposed a bill to turn over control of the Keystone State’s redistricting to a panel of five commissioners (two from each party and a tiebreaker). Seeing as redistricting is currently controlled by an unholy but effective alliance of Republicans and the Philadelphia Democratic machine, I don’t see this going anywhere.

TX-GOP: After the surprise resignation of state party Chairman Tom Mechler, Texas Republicans now once again have a leader. Travis County Chairman James Dickey has won a narrow race for the top job in one of America’s biggest state parties.

International

Indonesia: This one is a bit scary. It seems that when Jakarta’s governor lost reelection recently, he did so solely because he wasn’t Muslim. He had a 76% approval rating, but 30% of voters stated that that though they approved of his job performance, sharia law dictated that they must vote for his Muslim opponent. Moreover, he’s now facing blasphemy charges for suggesting that Muslims didn’t have to vote for him to due to sharia law,

UK: Our friends over at 538 have an excellent piece on whether or not the polls showing a close race with a small Tory lead are skewed in favor of Labour or not (some polls show a much bigger lead). This is worth a read if you’ve been recently confused by the contradictory polls coming out of Britain lately.