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Political Roundup for November 10, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: As most people have no doubt heard by now, GOP nominee Roy Moore has been accused in a Washington Post story of having a sexual encounter with a 14-year old girl back in 1979 when Moore was a 32-year old assistant DA in Etowah County. Many, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and NRSC Chairman Sen. Cory Gardner (R) have said Moore needs to drop out of the race if the allegations are true(Moore is denying the allegations). However, it is too late to replace Moore on the ballot. Although, some have pointed out that was what we were told when New Jersey Democrats wanted to replace  scandal-plagued Rep. Robert Torricelli (D) on the ballot for US Senate in 2002 with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), and the state’s Democratic-dominated judiciary essentially looked the other way. But, barring some similar legal maneuver(and getting Moore to agree to drop out, which may be even tougher), Republicans may be stuck with Moore and hoping that voters believe Moore’s denials or look past something that happened nearly 40 years ago(which, this being deep-red Alabama, wouldn’t be a total surprise).

PA-Sen/PA-LG: Businessman Jeff Bartos has dropped out of the US Senate race, and will instead run for LG, working in tandem with the gubernatorial campaign of state Sen. Scott Wagner (R). Bartos’s exit from the race helps Rep. Lou Barletta (R), as he was the strongest opponent still in the race. Barletta now only faces minor opposition in the GOP primary.

House:

HI-1: State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D) became the 2nd person to join this race on Wednesday. She joins state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D), who announced a bid earlier this week. Party-switching state Rep. Beth Fukumoto (R->D) and AG Doug Chin (D) have indicated an interest in running as well.

NV-3: Michelle Mortensen, a consumer reporter for a Las Vegas TV station, is leaving that job to run in the Republican primary for Congress. She joins state Sen. Scott Hammond (R), former state Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman (R) and former Clark County Republican Party chairman Dave McKeon in the Republican primary. Philanthropist and 2016 NV-4 congressional candidate Susie Lee is currently the only Democrat running.

NH-1: Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) has joined the race for this open seat. Pappas was recruited by national Democrats for the seat, and likely starts as the frontrunner. He joins former state AFL-CIO president Mark McKenzie, former Obama Administration Pentagon official Maura Sullivan, former Strafford County District Attorney Lincoln Soldati, and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Mindi Messmer (D) and Somersworth Mayor Dana Hilliard are also considering. State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) and former law enforcement official Eddie Edwards are running on the Republican side, with former NH GOP Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry considering. Trump won this district 48-45 last year.

TX-2: State Rep. Kevin Roberts (R) is the first person to jump into the race for this now-open seat. Roberts is in his first term representing a district in northwest Harris County. TX-2 lies wholly within Harris County, snaking around the northeast, north, northwest and west parts of the county.

TX-21: State Rep. Jason Isaac (R) has announced he is running for Congress. Isaac joins retired CIA operations officer Eric Burkhart as the only candidates to announce a run so far. Isaac doesn’t actually live in the district, but part of his state House district overlaps the congressional district.

VA-6: Two Republicans wasted no time in announcing campaigns in the wake of yesterday’s retirement announcement by Rep. Robert Goodlatte (R). State Del. Ben Cline (R) and attorney and RNC member Cynthia Dunbar have both jumped in the race. Cline has represented a seat in Rockbridge County since 2002 and was re-elected easily on Tuesday. Other Republicans are expected to get in the race. Two potential Democratic candidates have already taken themselves out of the running. Former TV news anchor Chris Hurst had been recruited by national Democrats to run, but he instead ran for the House of Delegates and defeated an incumbent Republican on Tuesday. Del. Sam Rasoul (D), who took 37% against Goodlatte as the Democratic nominee in 2008, the best showing for a Democrat in the district since Goodlatte’s first election in 1992, had been considered a possible candidate, but will not run.

WV-3: WV Republican Party chairman Conrad Lucas, is running for Congress. Lucas joins a Republican primary that includes state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R), state Del. Rupie Phillips (R), and physician Ayne Amjad. Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D), Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, and Tri-State Transit Authority CEO Paul Davis.

Governor/state offices:

CO-Gov: Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) entered the already crowded GOP primary for governor yesterday. She joins 8 other Republicans currently in the race, including Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, investment banker Doug Robinson(nephew of Mitt Romney), and former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), who just joined the race last week. Brauchler, however is now considering dropping out of the race and running for AG(more on that below).

NY-Gov: Little surprise, but after his loss in the Westchester County Executive race on Tuesday, Rob Astorino has announced he will not run for governor next year. Astorino, who was the 2014 Republican nominee, had been talking about making another run.

CO-AG: Now that the Attorney General position is open, Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, is now considering dropping out of the governor’s race and running for AG instead, seeing his possibilities in the governor’s race fading as the race becomes more crowded. One person who will not be running for AG is Rep. Ken Buck (R), who had said earlier in the year that he might run if Coffman didn’t run for re-election. Buck announced on Wednesday that he will instead run for re-election to Congress. Other Republicans who have expressed interest in running include state Rep. Cole Wist (R) and 2014 CO-2 Republican nominee George Leing.

TX-AG: Austin-based attorney Justin Nelson (D) is running for Attorney General. He is the first person to announce a challenge to AG Ken Paxton (R). He is part of a law firm that specializes in high-stakes civil litigation and is also the founder and former president of One Nation One Vote, a nonprofit organization pushing for eliminating the Electoral College and going to a national popular vote.

Political Roundup for September 27th, 2017

About last night: ex-State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) won the AL-Sen runoff, defeating incumbent Luther Strange (R) 56-44. Incumbent Marty Walsh (D) advanced to a general with councilman Tito Jackson (D) in Boston, which Walsh led 66-24, and Democrats picked up a pair of legislative seats in FL-SD-40 (with Annette Taddeo-Goldstein (D) winning by 3%) and a deep-red State House seat in NH. Republicans held FL-LD-116 easily.

Governor:

NJ-Gov: Former Goldman Sachs Master of the Universe Phil Murphy (D) has launched his first TV ad of the general election. After spending more than $20 million to buy win the Democrat nomination, Murphy has put his campaign on autopilot, kept a low profile and went on the public dole by entering the New Jersey Campaign Finance system program that limits donations, curtails spending and allowed him to use taxpayer money to finance his campaign. Murphy’s first ad obviously tries to link Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) to Gov. Chris Christie (R) whose poll numbers are absolutely toxic. The RGA is up with their second 15-second TV ad (See HERE) which hits “really loaded, really liberal” Phil Murphy for not paying his employees the $15 minimum wage he claims to favor.

NV-Gov: Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) has announced 12 “special events” starting on Monday during which he is expected to officially announce his candidacy for Governor. On the Democrat side Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D) has scheduled a “special announcement” for Monday which she will most likely use to announce her run for Governor. Clark County Commission Chair Steve Sisolak (D) and State Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R) have previously announced their candidacies.

VA-Gov: New polls are out in Virginia. PPP has Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie by a very narrow 43% to 40% margin with Libertarian Cliff Hyra at 4% and Not Sure at 13%, a Monmouth poll taken 9/21 to 9/25 has Northam at 49% and Gillespie at 44%, while IMGE Insights has Nothman leading Gillespie 45% to 41%.

Senate:

MS-Sen: State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who nearly toppled Sen. Thad Cochran (R) in a 2014, now has his eye on challenging Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in 2018. McDaniel has been talking with former Trump strategist Steve Bannon and views Roy Moore’s primary win as a call to arms.

PA-Sen: Rep. Mike Kelly (R) who at one time was considering a run for Senate has sent a fundraising letter out on behalf of GOP Senate candidate Rep. Lou Barletta.

TN-Sen: ICYMI Sen. Bob Corker has announced he will not seek re-election in 2018. Please scroll down for our complete coverage of this from yesterday and for my plug for David French to run for Senate!

TX-Sen: Sen. John Cornyn (R) has made it clear he will run for re-election in 2020. H stated that he would stay in the Senate “as long as Texans will have me” which at the rate Texas is turning blue could be a VERY long time.

House:

IN-04: State Sen. John Crane (R) announced he will not run for this open safe R seat of Rep. Todd Rokita is vacating to run for Senate. Steve Braun and Diego Morales are the two leading GOP candidates in this race.

MI-11: RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel (R) has ruled out a run for the open House seat of retiring Rep. Dave Trott (R).

NV-3: Emily’s List has endorsed failed 2016 NV-4 candidate Susie Lee (D) for this open swing seat. The Nevada Democrat establishment seems to be coalescing around the very wealthy Lee while the GOP has a fairly large and wide open field for this seat.

NY-19: And then there were 7! Some dudette Sue Sullivan (D) has dropped out of the race for Congress vs. freshman Rep. John Faso leaving only 7 no name Democrats vying for the right to take on Faso next year.

State, Local & Other:

NY-Nassau County Executive: The Civil Service Employees Association Nassau County has endorsed Republican Jack Martins for county executive. Municipal labor unions usually endorse Democrats but since the Nassau Country Republican machine is all about playing ball they can buy these endorsements away from the Democrats.

NY-Corruption: A three-judge federal-appeals court panel has overturned former New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R) 2015 federal corruption conviction. At issue was the 2016 Supreme Court case that overturned former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell’s corruption conviction. In Skelos’ case prosecutors used the pre-2016 SCOTUS ruling charging standards against Skelos. This was the same issue that lead to the overturning of former New York Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver’s (D) corruption conviction. Federal prosecutors are expected to retry Skelos under the new standard.

VA-Lt Gov: In the race for Lt Governor PPP has a new poll out with Democrat Justin Fairfax leading Republican Jill Vogel 43% to 37% with Not Sure at 21%.

VA-AG: PPP also polled the race for Attorney General and had Democrat Mark Herring leading Republican John Adams 46% to 38% with Not Sure at 16%.

#FakeNews: The Washington Post ran an unbelievably crappy story in which they falsely claimed 17,000 Wisconsinites in two counties didn’t vote in 2016 because of voter ID laws. The state of Wisconsin actually keeps records of how many people show up to vote without an ID. In 2016 less than 600 people came to vote without an ID and every single one of them were allowed to vote if they agreed to sign an affidavit explaining why they couldn’t get ID. But instead of  relying on the actual numbers the state of Wisconsin keeps The Washington Post instead decided to rely on a biased unverifiable targeted survey with 293 self-respondents (out of 2,300 sent) in which they extrapolated their ridiculous figure of 17,000 disenfranchised non-ID voters. The whole thing is complete nonsense and a prime example of how false stories can perpetuate false myths about voter fraud and disenfranchisement that don’t exist.

WATN: Former three time RRHelections Turkey Award Winner Anthony Weiner (D) has been sentenced to 21 months in prison for sexting with a 15 year old girl. We would make more jokes about he “man” most responsible for electing Donald Trump President of the United States but the sick f*** was having cybersex with a kid. May he rot in jail.

Political Roundup for September 18, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: Plenty of movement over the weekend in this race, a week ahead of the primary runoff. Trump has announced he will go to Alabama to do a rally for appointed incumbent Luther Strange (R), a big get for Strange in a race where both candidates have been fighting to be tied as closely as possible to the President. Strange also picked up the endorsement of his senior colleague, Sen. Richard Shelby (R). However, Strange’s rival, ex-State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R), nabbed a big get of his own in Rep. Mo Brooks (R). Brooks, who came in third in the primary, was largely expected to endorse Moore after his own bid was derailed by Strange’s sustained negative ad barrage. This now means that both major eliminated candidates from the first round, Brooks and State Sen. Trip Pittman (R), have picked Moore for the runoff; the three combined to take some 2/3 of the vote in the first round. Moore has led in all polls of this race, though by dramatically varying margins; the primary winner will face ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D) in a December general.

CA-Sen: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is non-committal on running for a fifth full term in 2018. Feinstein has previously indicated she will run again, so the new statement could be opening the door to a retirement. AG Xavier Becerra (D) and LA Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) have been mentioned as potential candidates for an open seat.

FL-Sen: Gov. Rick Scott (R) has received praise for his handling of Hurricane Irma, which could be a positive in his likely run against Sen. Bill Nelson (D). The article has a good recap of Scott’s efforts at Hurricane relief and their potential political impact.

OH-Sen: Author JD Vance (R) will not run for Senate. Vance wrote a well-received tome about his childhood in a lower-middle-class Cincinnati exurb as a reflection on Appalachian culture; he has been working the rubber-chicken circuit for several months and could have been a formidable contender if he entered. Front-running State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) and Kasich-backed investor Mike Gibbons (R) look likely to be the only major candidates in the primary to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

Governor:

GA-Gov: Consulting company executive and former SEAL Clay Tippins (R) has filed to enter the race. It’s too early to tell how serious Tippins will be, but he could have the profile to be a credible contender in the crowded primary field. LG Casey Cagle (R), SoS Brian Kemp (R), and State Sens. Hunter Hill (R) and Michael Williams (R) are already in the race. State Reps. Stacey Abrams (D) and Stacey Evans (D) are in the race on the D side.

MA-Gov: Barnstable County Commissioner (side note: this is an office with far less power in MA than in other states, as some MA counties have no government at all and the rest have very limited functions) Ronald Beaty Jr. (R) is considering a primary challenge against Gov. Charlie Baker (R). Beaty served time in the early 90s for making death threats to prominent elected officials and has been notable in office for a plan to kill sharks – needless to say, he doesn’t seem like a very serious candidate.

MI-Gov: Trump dropped a somewhat unexpected endorsement in this race over the weekend, quickly endorsing AG Bill Schuette’s (R) bid (and spelling his name wrong in the process). The endorsement could be a major boost to Schuette as he faces a crowded primary; State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R) and physician Jim Hines (R) are already in the race, and LG Brian Calley (who rescinded his Trump endorsement in the fall of 2016) is expected to enter as well.

NJ-Gov: Another Q poll shows this race as a total snoozer, with former Goldman Sachs exec and ambassador Phil Murphy (D) leading LG Kim Guadagno (R) by a whopping 58-33 margin.

House:

CA-24: Michael Woody (R), who served one term as a Fresno councilman in the 90s before an unsuccessful mayoral run, is running for this medium-blue Central Coast seat against Rep. Salud Carbajal (D). 2016 nominee Justin Fareed (R) is considering another run and would likely be the front-runner on the GOP side if he ran.

CO-4, CO-AG: Rep. Ken Buck (R) has said he will likely not give up his seat to run for AG if incumbent Cynthia Coffman (R) vacates the office. Coffman has still not decided whether to run for a second term or give up her seat to try for the gubernatorial office; Buck would have likely been the strong front-runner for the GOP nomination if he ran for an open seat.

IL-11: STEL-LA! Nick Stella (R), a cardiologist who narrowly lost the 2016 primary, is mounting a second bid for the seat of Rep. Bill Foster (D). This Joliet and Aurora based seat is deep-blue, but its Democrats here have been low turnout in midterms. Stella looks likely to be the primary front-runner this time.

NV-3: Nonprofit exec and 2016 NV-4 candidate Susie Lee (D) is running for this open seat. Lee, a charity executive with self-funding ability, was heavily recruited to run for this seat in 2016. Instead, she made the bad decision to try for the bluer 4th on the other side of the Las Vegas metro area instead. Lee then lost the NV-4 primary to Ruben Kihuen (D), while Democrats’ backup choice for the 3rd, now-Rep. Jacky Rosen (D), prevailed there. Lee looks likely to get a second chance though, as no prominent Democrats have entered the open seat race; thus, Lee could still secure machine backing for this race. State Sen. Scott Hammond (R), ex-State Rep. Victoria Seaman (R), and ex-Clark County GOP chair David McKeon (R) are in the race for this purple southern Las Vegas area seat on the GOP side.

NY-11: Ex-Rep. Michael Grimm (R) really is set to pull the trigger on a run to get his old Staten Island House seat back. Grimm, who was forced out by a conviction on some minor business violations, is set to primary his replacement, Rep. Dan Donovan (R), from the right. Due to his criminal record and Donovan’s strong support in the local establishment, Grimm’s campaign seems unlikely to gain much traction in the primary. However, he could still cause problems for Donovan in the general; Grimm is closely-tied to the leaders of the local Conservative party, meaning he could continue on to the general election and split the Republican vote in this medium-red seat. Democrats thus far do not have any credible candidates exploring this race, as Donovan was considered a good fit for this seat. But Grimm’s challenge may open the door for a more serious Dem to emerge.

PA-15: Northampton DA John Morganelli (D) is considering a run for this light-red open seat. Morganelli, who has lost several runs for AG but is well-known and has strong appeal in the Lehigh Valley, could easily be Democrats’ establishment choice for the race. Two other lesser-known Dems, ex-Lehigh County commissioner Bill Leiner (D) and pastor Greg Edwards (D), are in the race already. State Reps. Justin Simmons (R) and Ryan Mackenzie (R) are running on the GOP side.

TX-27: Ex-Victoria County GOP chair Mike Cloud (R) is exploring a run against Rep. Blake Farenthold (R) in the primary. Farenthold has had some minor issues but has not been seriously challenged for his Corpus Christi area seat since winning it in 2010. Cloud’s bid against Farenthold may be complicated (or, alternatively, may benefit) by a change in the district; this seat may be re-redistricted if SCOTUS affirms a decision striking it down.

UT-3: A Dan Jones poll of this November’s special election shows Provo Mayor John Curtis (R) cruising as expected in this deep-red seat, leading physician Kathie Allen (D) 50-20. Jim Bennett (I), son of ex-US Sen. Bob (R), is polling at 6%, just barely missing the cutoff for a televised debate.

State & Local:

IL-AG: In a major surprise, AG Lisa Madigan (D) will not seek a fifth term; Madigan has also intimated that she is not planning to run for any other office, including Governor or Mayor of Chicago. Madigan long transparently harbored Gubernatorial aspirations, but she declared in 2014 that she would not run so long as her father, State Dictator House Speaker Mike (D), remained as the most powerful man in state Government. It looks like Lisa has gotten tired of waiting and decided to cash out.

MN-AG: One Democrat is in and one is out of this race. State Rep. John Lesch (D) has dropped out of the race, saying that AG Lori Swanson’s (D) continued deliberations on whether or not to run for Governor make the run too much of an uncertain prospect; however, Lesch was also recently fined $20K for campaign finance violations. However, attorney and Dem operative Matt Pelikan (D) has entered the race in his stead. Pelikan, who has worked on several prominent campaigns, joins State Rep. Debra Hillstrom (D) and ex-State Rep. Ryan Winkler (D) in the race – though all have left the door open to dropping out should Swanson run again. Republicans have two candidates in ex-State Rep. Doug Wardlow (R) and attorney Harry Niska (R).

NV-SoS: Reno Councilman Oscar Delgado (D) will not run for SoS against incumbent Barbara Cegavske (R), sending Democrats back to the drawing board in this race.

Buffalo-Mayor: After losing the Democratic primary last week, city comptroller Mark Schroeder (D) is undecided about continuing on to a general election against incumbent Byron Brown (D) on the Reform Party line. Schroeder, a moderate Democrat, could be a credible threat to Brown in the general as he would be a logical home for the votes of the city’s GOP minority – which could form a winning coalition when paired with Schroeder’s roughly third of the Dem primary vote.

FL-SD-40: Gov. Rick Scott (R) has denied Democrats’ request to move the election date for this suburban Miami Senate seat due to widespread power outages in the district following Hurricane Irma. The hotly contested race for the R-held, Dem-leaning, but Cuban-machine-friendly seat, between State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz (R) and perennial candidate Annette Taddeo-Goldstein (D), is proceeding as scheduled one week from tomorrow.

Political Roundup for September 15, 2017

Senate:

MI-Sen: Businessman Sandy Pensler says he is taking a “serious look” at running for Senate. Businessman and Iraq war veteran John James is expected to formally announce his candidacy soon. The two potential entries come as announced candidate Lena Epstein is likely dropping out to run for MI-11. Former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Young is also running, with rock musician Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie still considering a run.

TN-Sen: Conservative activist Andy Ogles is the first person to announce a bid for the US Senate seat currently held by Sen. Bob Corker (R). Corker has not decided whether to seek re-election, but says he will make a decision soon. Ogles, who recently stepped down as head of the Tennessee affiliate of Americans for Prosperity, however is planning to run against Corker in the GOP primary. Ogles criticized Corker for not being conservative enough. This isn’t the first time Ogles has run for office-he finished 3rd in the 2002 GOP primary for the then-open TN-4. Former state Rep. Joe Carr (R), who has been considering running was surprised by Ogles entry into the race, but is still contemplating entering the race himself. State Sen. Mark Green (R), who dropped a previous bid for governor after being considered for Secretary of Army, from which he later withdrew from consideration, confirmed he is still considering entering the race too, despite previously saying he would not run for any higher office next year.

House:

KS-2: Former state Secretary of Commerce Antonio Soave has joined the Republican nomination for this open seat. Soave had previously indicated an interest in running, but has now officially entered the race. He joins state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, state Rep. Kevin Jones and Basehor councilman Vernon Fields in the GOP primary.

MA-3: State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) is the 2nd Democrat to announce a run for this open seat. L’Italien joins Daniel Koh, former Chief of Staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh in the Democratic primary. Other Democrats said to be considering runs include Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini and 2014 Democratic LG nominee Steve Kerrigan.

MI-11: It’s looking increasingly likely that current GOP Senate candidate Lena Epstein will drop down from her Senate bid and run for the now open MI-11. After previously saying she was considering the move, she now says she is “leaning toward” running for the House seat instead. Epstein is the co-owner of an automotive oil company.

MT-AL: Former nonprofit director Grant Kier is running for the Democratic nomination for Congress. Kier is the former director of Five Valleys Land Trust and the Bitter Root Land Trust. Billings attorney John Heenan is also running for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Greg Gianforte (R).

NV-3: Philanthropist Susie Lee has announced her candidacy for Congress. Lee had previously lost in the Democratic primary for NV-4 in 2016. Lee is the second Democrat to announce a run for this open seat-businessman Jack Love is already running. 4 Republicans are currently running.

Governor:

AL-Gov: The crowded Republican gubernatorial race has got slightly smaller. Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington is dropping out of the race. He says he will finish out his term on the Jefferson County Commission and has no plans to ever seek office again. 5 other Republicans, including Gov. Kay Ivey (R) are running.

IL-Gov/LG: Gubernatorial candidate Chris Kennedy (D) has chosen Ra Joy, the Executive Director of Change Illinois, as his running mate. Change Illinois is a coalition of civic, business and labor groups. With the choice, most of the major candidates for governor have made their running mate choices-downstate regional school superintendent Bob Daiber is the only candidate who has not made his pick.

NE-Gov: State Sen. Bob Krist has made it official-he has changed his registration from Republican to independent and will run for governor next year as an independent. Although appointed to his seat by then-Gov. Dave Heineman (R) in 2009, Krist later became an opponent of Heineman and current Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) and has increasingly become known as an outspoken moderate in the Legislature. He supported Brad Ashford (D) for Congress in 2014 after contemplating running against then-Rep. Lee Terry (R) himself. Krist said he considered running for governor as a Democrat, but could not join a party that supported abortion rights. Krist will likely try to create a 3rd party for his run as it’s easier to get on the ballot than running as an independent. No Democrats have announced bids or even known to be considering running.

State & Local:

LA-Treas.: Democratic candidate Derrick Edwards is almost assured of finishing in the top two in the Oct. 14 primary for state Treasurer and securing a spot in the runoff, as he is the only Democrat on the ballot. But he is not running a serious campaign, so his chances of winning the runoff are practically nil. An indication of how unserious his campaign is-his campaign was actually in the red by $5900 last week and had shown no contributions. He does have $528 in his campaign account now due to a loan by a relative to get his campaign account in the black. He isn’t doing much campaigning and hasn’t hired staff to help with the race. State Sen. Neil Riser (R), state Rep. John Schroder (R), and former Gov. Bobby Jindal budget director Angele Davis (R) are battling for the other runoff spot.

NV-LG: Former State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D) announced Wednesday she is running for Lieutenant Governor. Democrat Chip Evans also announced his candidacy the same day, setting up a primary between the two. The two have one thing in common-both have lost to Rep. Mark Amodei (R) in unsuccessful campaigns for NV-2; Marshall lost in the 2011 special election, and Evans lost last year. Marshall served two terms as State Treasurer before making an unsuccessful bid for Secretary of State in 2014. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) had been planning to run, but demurred after Marshall appeared to be the preferred candidate of the Nevada Democratic establishment.

Political Roundup for September 1, 2017

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Rep. Trent Franks (R) has confirmed that he has no interest in running for US Senate next year. In a radio interview he said he just can’t see him running against Sen. Jeff Flake (R) and God himself would have to tell him to do it. However he did not rule out running for the Senate in the future, just that it isn’t the right time at the moment. He did confirm that he, along with State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and former state Republican chairman Robert Graham met with President Trump when he was in Phoenix last week, and said he did not commit to supporting any particular candidate against Flake.

PA-Sen/PA-LG: Real estate executive Jeff Bartos, who has been running for Senate since April, is said to be considering dropping out of the race. Rumors have been going around that he might drop out of the race if a more high-profile candidate entered, and the entry of Rep. Lou Barletta (R) to the race may fit the bill. The same rumors say that if he drops out, he may decide to run for lieutenant governor instead. This week, he defended gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) from charges of anti-Semitism after Wagner made a comment about left-wing billionaire George Soros’ Jewish heritage, which may indicate that he is seeking to be part of a gubernatorial campaign as a running mate. Currently, there are no Republicans who have announced they plan to run for LG.

House:

FL-27: Former Doral Councilwoman Bettina Rodriguez Aguilera has joined the Republican nomination to replace retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R). Rodriguez Aguilera said she voted for Trump, contrasting herself with fellow GOP candidate former Miami-Dade School Board member Raquel Regalado, who did not support him. A 3rd candidate in the primary, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, supported Trump as well. State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) is the most high-profile candidate on the Democratic side, in a district that Democrats should have a good chance at picking up.

NV-3: Insurance agent Jack Love announced yesterday he is running for Congress, becoming the first Democrat to announce a run. State Sen. Scott Hammond (R) and state Rep. Victoria Seaman (R) have both announced runs on the Republican side. Pro golfer Natalie Gulbis (R) is also considering running. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) is leaving the seat after just one term to challenge Sen. Dean Heller (R).

NY-11: Former Rep. Michael Grimm (R) has acknowledged publicly for the first time that he is considering running for his former job. Grimm resigned from Congress at the end of 2014 after his conviction on federal tax fraud charges and served 7 months in prison. Current Rep. Dan Donovan (R) was elected in the ensuing special election and re-elected last year. Grimm criticized Donovan, saying he is “doing a great job as a liberal Democrat” because he opposed President Trump on key issues such as the health care bill. Grimm says he will decide “fairly soon” whether to run.

WA-5: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) has drawn an unusually high profile opponent for 2018. Former state Senate Majority Leader and Washington State University Spokane chancellor Lisa Brown (D) has announced she is running for Congress. Two other candidates, Democrat Matthew Sutherland and Independent Eric Agnew are running in the all-party primary, but McMorris Rodgers and Brown are likely to meet in the general election. Although Brown is a more high-profile candidate than most Democrats who run for the seat, she should still have an uphill battle in a district that went for Trump by 13 points last year and has been Republican since 1994 when then-House Speaker Tom Foley (D) was defeated by Republican George Nethercutt.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is expected to decide in the next few weeks whether to run for governor next year. Sources close to her say she will make an announcement sometime between Labor Day and the Sept.26 runoff for US Senate between Roy Moore and Sen. Luther Strange (R). The possibility of Ivey running already forced one potential opponent, Public Service Commission Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh to run for LG instead, but the 8 other Republicans currently in the race say Ivey’s plans will not affect their plans to run.

CO-Gov: State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) is said to be looking at an early October formal entry into the governor’s race. Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, businessman Doug Robinson, and former state Rep. Victor Mitchell are already in the GOP primary race and AG Cynthia Coffman is considering joining the race as well.

CT-Gov: State Comptroller Kevin Lembo (D), unexpectedly dropped out of the governor’s race yesterday and announced he would run for re-election to his current post instead. Lembo was expected to be a top-tier candidate and his departure from the race was a surprise to other candidates. Speculation on the Democratic side has now turned to LG Nancy Wyman (D), who has not yet announced her plans. But since Wyman has not yet begun fundraising, some take that and her silence about her plans to mean she isn’t running. Democrats who are still running or considering include Middleton Mayor Dan Drew, Bridgeport Mayor Joseph Ganim and former West Hartford Mayor and state consumer protection commissioner Jonathan Harris.

IL-Gov/IL-LG: State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) has chosen for his running mate Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa. The move indicates Biss is playing to the left in his campaign as Ramirez-Rosa was a Bernie Sanders delegate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention, is part of the council’s Progressive Caucus and recently joined Democratic Socialists for America.

ME-Gov: Ex-Gov. John Baldacci (D) says he may seriously consider running again if he has concerns about the field of candidates running. He says he may run if there is not enough moderation or bipartisanship among the candidates. Baldacci was the predecessor to current Gov. Paul LePage (R) serving from 2003-2011.

NY-Gov: State Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb (R) is considering running for governor next year. He says he has been asked to run by party officials, other elected officials and members of the business community. Kolb has considered running and been asked to run for higher office before, turning down races for Congress in 2010 and 2012 and against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) in 2010. There are several other Republicans considering runs including former state comptroller candidate Harry Wilson, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, 2010 nominee Carl Paladino, 2014 nominee and Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and state Sen. John DeFrancisco. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is expected to run for re-election and any Republican nominee will have an uphill battle.

State & Local:

FL-AG: Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler (D) is considering running for Attorney General. He will be leaving office next March due to term limits, and hasn’t yet decided what to run for next, if anything. But running for Attorney General or the Broward County Commission are said to be two possibilities. Seiler would give Democrats a more high-profile candidate for AG, as currently little-known consumer protection attorney Ryan Torrens is the only Democrat running.

Political Roundup for August 4, 2017

Our Alabama Senate Poll is coming out at 1PM!

Senate:

MT-Sen: Yellowstone County District Judge Russell Fagg has been given the go-ahead by the Montana Judicial Standards Commission to create an exploratory committee to run for the Republican nomination for US Senate. The Montana Democratic Party complained that Fagg was violating a rule forbidding sitting judges from identifying themselves as a candidate for a political office. The commission found that merely forming an exploratory committee did not identify him as a candidate, but that he was just “testing the waters”. Fagg is already planning on retiring from the bench in October. He considered running in the MT-AL special election earlier this year as well. State Auditor Matt Rosendale, state Sen. Albert Olszewski, and businessmen Ronald Murray and Troy Downing are currently running for the Republican nomination to face Sen. Jon Tester (D).

ND-Sen: State Rep. Rick Becker (R) is considering running for the Republican nomination to face Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and plans to make a decision by next month at the latest. He also says whether Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) gets in the race will not be a factor in making his own decision. He also has not shut the door on running for Congress if Cramer runs for Senate. Becker made a failed run for governor last year, finishing 2nd at the state convention and did not carry his campaign to the primary. State Sen. Tom Campbell (R) and State Board of Higher Education member Kathy Neset (R) are also considering running for Senate as well.

House:

MD-6: Former state Del. Matt Mossburg (R) announced his candidacy for Congress yesterday. Mossburg served as a state Delegate from 1995-99 and then went through depression and drug addiction and has since become an advocate for tackling the growing opioid crisis. Mossburg says he was planning on running for state Senate before Rep. John Delaney (D) announced his retirement from Congress last week.

NV-3: Former state Rep. Victoria Seaman (R) is joining the GOP primary race for this open seat. Seaman served one term before losing a race for the state Senate last year. Seaman joins state Sen. Scott Hammond, former Clark County Republican Party chair David McKeon and autism advocate Lynda Tache in the Republican primary. Professional golfer Natalie Gulbis and unsuccessful 2016 nominee Danny Tarkanian are considering running as well.

NM-1: Yet another Democrat is joining the race for this open seat. John Flores, a former journalist and military veteran becomes the 9th Democrat to announce a bid. Flores appears to be courting the left by openly saying he would support impeaching President Trump. Frontrunners for the Democratic nomination appear to be former University of New Mexico Law School Associate Dean Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, who has raised the most money, former New Mexico Democratic Party Chair Debra Haaland and former US Attorney Damon Martinez. Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), who lost by 18 points as the Republican nominee in 2012 and immigration lawyer Michael Hendricks are running on the Republican side.

NM-2: Former Eddy County Commissioner and pharmacist Jack Volpato (R) is running for Congress. Volpato had been planning on running for the state House before deciding to run for Congress after Rep. Steve Pearce (R) decided to run for governor. He joins State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (R) and state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) in running for the GOP nomination. State Sen. Cliff Pirtle (R), who had been considering running as well, took himself out of the running yesterday.

NY-19: Ulster County Execuitve Mike Hein (D) will not run for Congress. Hein has been considered a possible candidate in this cycle and last cycle, waiting a long time before bowing out two years ago while other potential candidates waited on his decision. This time he is taking himself out of the running earlier, and others have not waited on him to decide his plans-8 other Democrats are already running to take on Rep. John Faso (R).

TN-2: Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett (R) is running for this now-open seat. Although he will make an official announcement tomorrow, he has already filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC. Burchett, who also served in the state House from 1995-99 and in the state Senate from 1999-2010 had previously said he would either run for US Senate or for TN-2. With Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R) announcing his retirement this week, Burchett becomes the early frontrunner for the seat. State Rep. Jimmy Matlock (R) of Lenoir City also announced his candidacy yesterday.

UT-3: A judge has ordered that Jim Bennett, son and grandson of former Sens. Robert Bennett (R) and Wallace Bennett (R) respectively, to be placed on the ballot for the UT-3 special election representing the United Utah Party. The party is attempting to be a centrist alternative to the two major parties. Bennett had been a registered Republican before leaving the party last year over Donald Trump’s presidential nomination.

Governor:

MI-Gov: A newly released poll shows where potential Democratic and Republican candidates for governor stand in their respective primaries. The poll from Target-Insyght shows the Democratic primary tied at 35% between former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and attorney Geoffrey Fieger. Fieger, who has not yet got in the race, was the unsuccessful Democratic nominee for governor in 1998, losing by 24 points to Gov. John Engler (R). Announced candidates Abdul Al-Sayed and Shri Thanedar were way behind in single digits. AG Bill Schuette is the overwhelming favorite of Republicans at this point, taking 42%, well ahead of LG Brian Calley at 14%. Neither has yet joined the race, but both are expected to run.

OR-Gov: State Rep. Knute Buehler (R) has announced he will run for governor next year. If he wins the Republican nomination, he could face a rematch with Gov. Kate Brown (D) if she decides to seek re-election. Buehler faced Brown as the Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2012, losing by 8 points. He has since been elected to the State House in 2014 and 2016 and has established himself as a moderate Republican in the Legislature.

State & Local:

HI-LG: State Sen. Jill Tokuda (D) will run for Lieutenant Governor next year. Tokuda joins state Sen. Josh Green (D) in announcing plans to run. Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa (D) seems likely to run as well. Former state House Speaker Joe Souki (D) and state Sen. Will Espero (D) are also considering running. Current LG Shan Tsutsui (D) has said it was “very doubtful” he would run again, and he may run for Maui Mayor instead.

IA-SOS: Jim Mowrer, who has made unsuccessful bids for Congress in the last two cycles, has decided to run for Secretary of State next year. Mowrer was the Democratic nominee in IA-4 in 2014 and in IA-3 in 2016, taking less than 40% each time. He plans to make an issue of a new voter ID law passed in April that was supported by Secretary of State Paul Pate (R).

Political Roundup for July 7, 2017

Senate:

NV-Sen: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) formally announced her candidacy for US Senate yesterday and has the support of former Sen. Harry Reid (D). But that is not stopping Rep. Dina Titus (D) from considering getting into the race herself. Titus and Reid have clashed behind the scenes in the past-she defeated former Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, who was Reid’s handpicked candidate in the 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary and won the 2012 Democratic primary in NV-1 despite Reid supporting then state Sen. Ruben Kihuen (D)-Kihuen later dropped out of that race and won in NV-4 in 2016.

TN-Sen: State Sen. Mark Green (R) is being encouraged to run for US Senate by a group of conservatives frustrated with Sen. Bob Corker (R). Green previously planned to run for governor, but dropped out after being nominated by President Trump to be Secretary of the Army. Green later withdrew his name from consideration, but did not re-enter the governor’s race. Corker has not declared his intention whether to seek re-election or retire. State Rep. Andy Holt (R) is also considering running.

House:

CO-3: State Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush (D) announced yesterday she plans to challenge Rep. Scott Tipton (R) next year. Bush, who is from Steamboat Springs in the northern edge of the expansive district, plans to resign her state House seat soon to run for the seat full-time. She is the first Democrat to announce a campaign for the seat, but Grand Junction City Councilman Chris Kennedy and former CIA officer Bob Baer have been named as other possible contenders.

IL-12: St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly (D) has announced he plans to run for Congress next year against Rep. Mike Bost (R). Kelly is the 4th Democrat to get in the race, but easily the most high profile candidate. The others running are local museum director Dean Pruitt, small businessman and non-profit director David Bequette, former federal employee Adam King and Pat McMahan, a city councilman in the small town of Mascoutah. Businessman Nate Colombo also says he plans to run but has not formally announced a candidacy and nonprofit director Chris Miller is raising money online for a run.

IN-9: Dan Canon, a civil rights lawyer is the 3rd Democrat to announce a run against Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R). He joins orthodontist and small business owner(and video game collector) Tod Curtis and Indiana University instructor Tom Pappas in the Democratic primary. Despite being seen as vulnerable because he carpetbagged into the seat from Tennessee, Hollingsworth won by a fairly comfortable 14% margin in 2016 and the DCCC does not have IN-9 currently on its list of districts where they are looking to invest in challengers.

IA-3: Theresa Greenfield, a Des Moines businesswoman announced a run for Congress on Wednesday. Greenfield joins two other Des Moines-area businesswomen running for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. David Young (R). They are Cynthia Axne and Heather Ryan. Ryan ran for Congress before in Kentucky, taking 36% against then-Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) in 2008. Pete D’Alessandro, an advisor to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 Iowa presidential campaign, is also considering a run.

NV-3: State Sen. Scott Hammond (R) has become the first candidate to officially enter this open seat race. 2016 nominee Danny Tarkanian and professional golfer Natalie Gulbis are other Republicans who are considering running.

PA-7: It’s official-bold progressive state Sen. Daylin Leach (D) is in for the Democratic nomination for this seat next year. In his announcement, he sounded more like he was running against President Trump than Rep. Pat Meehan (R). He had nice things to say about Meehan while blasting Trump. Leach previously ran in PA-13 in 2014, finishing a distant 3rd in the Democratic primary. 5 other Democrats are running for the Democratic nomination.

VA-2: Retired construction company owner Garry Hubbard entered the Democratic nomination for Congress on Wednesday, becoming the 2nd Democrat in as many days to announce a bid against Rep. Scott Taylor (R). He joins Virginia Beach Democratic Party chair and retired Air Force officer Dave Belote, who entered the race on Tuesday. The 2nd District Democratic Party has not chosen yet how to choose their nominee, whether through a traditional primary or convention or a “firehouse primary”-a primary run by the party and not the state.

State & Local:

AL-AG: Lawyer and criminal court judge Chess Bedsole (R) is running for Attorney general next year. Bedsole worked on Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and was also an advisor to US Attorney General Jeff Sessions; he also ran in the 2006 primary for State Auditor Appointed AG Steve Marshall (R) is planning to run for a full term, while former deputy AG Alice Martin (R) is also in the race.

GA-SOS: State Sen. Joshua McKoon (R) has entered the race for Secretary of State. Current SOS Brian Kemp (R) is running for governor. He joins state Reps. Buzz Brockway (R) and Brad Raffensberger (R) and Alpharetta Mayor David Belle Isle in the GOP primary. Democrats running include state Rep. Dee Dawkins-Haigler (D) and Democratic activist RJ Hadley.

LA-Treas.: State Rep. Julie Stokes (R) is dropping out of the October special election for state Treasurer because of a recent breast cancer diagnosis. Stokes was the first candidate to enter the race and was expected to be a major contender. State Rep. John Schroder (R) and state Sen. Neil Riser (R) are still in the race.

PA-LG: Democrat Aryanna Berringer plans to run for LG next year. Berringer is an information technology manager for a supermarket chain and has run for political office before, taking 39% in 2012 against then-Rep. Joseph Pitts (R) in PA-16.  Current LG Mike Stack plans to run for a 2nd term.

Political Roundup for June 30, 2017

House:

CA-10: Michael Eggman (D) who lost to Rep. Jeff Denham (R) in both 2014 and 2016, will not run again in 2018. However, he is starting a PAC to help oust Denham and 6 other Republicans-Reps. Steve Knight, David Valadao, Ed Royce, Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher and Darrell Issa-who all represent districts won by Hillary Clinton last year. Eggman lost by 12 points in 2014, but only by 4 points last year. 6 Democrats have filed to take on Denham next year

FL-7: State Rep. Mike Miller (R) announced yesterday he is running for Congress. Miller, considered a moderate, is the first Republican to enter the race against freshman Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D). State Sen. David Simmons (R) is thinking about running as well. State Rep. Bob Cortes (R) considered running, but decided against it.

FL-27: State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) is in the race for this seat, giving Democrats their top recruit for the open seat race. Although he is the candidate Democrats most wanted to run, he does not have the field to himself-Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, and University of Miami academic advisor Michael Hepburn are running as well. Former Miami-Dade School Board member Raquel Regalado, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, and Maria Peiro, who ran against retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) in the 2016 GOP primary are running on the Republican side. LG Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) is also considering running.

NV-3: Professional golfer Natalie Gulbis met this week with Republicans in Washington interested in getting her to run for Congress. Gulbis is an avid Donald Trump supporter and spoke in support of him at last year’s Republican National Convention. State Sen. Scott Hammond (R) is considering running and Clark County GOP Chairman Dave McKeon has filed papers to run. 2016 Republican nominee(and quickly approaching perennial candidate status) Danny Tarkanian is considering running again, but also may run for US Senate against Sen. Dean Heller (R). Democrats have no obvious candidate here-philanthropist Susie Lee, who finished 3rd in the Democratic primary for NV-4 last year, is thought to be interested in running.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (D) has formed an exploratory committee to consider running for governor. Maddox has served as mayor since 2005 and was praised for his work in helping the city recover from tornadoes that ravaged the city in 2011. Former state Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb is already running on the Democratic side. Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington and 2014 candidate Stacy Lee George are running on the Republican side-several others, including Gov. Kay Ivey (R) are considering running.

GA-Gov: Nick Ayers, a top advisor to VP Mike Pence and protege of ex-Gov. and now Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue, had been considered a possible candidate for the Republican nomination for governor, but is out after being named Pence’s chief of staff yesterday. Ayers would have been battling against some high profile names for the GOP nomination, including LG Casey Cagle (R) and Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), but he would have been the most avidly pro-Trump person in the race and supporters were hoping he could fundraise off of that. State Sens. Hunter Hill (R) and Michael Williams (R) round out the Republican field right now. House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) and state Rep. Stacey Evans (D) are in for the Democrats.

IA-Gov: The clown car Democratic primary for governor has added yet another candidate. Former Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn has formed a campaign committee. Wilburn joins 8 other Democrats who are running or considering. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) and Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett are in on the Republican side.

NM-Gov: AG Hector Balderas (D) has endorsed Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) for governor. Balderas considered running for governor himself, but announced last month he would instead run for re-election as attorney general. Businessman Jeff Apodaca, son of 1970s-era Gov. Jerry Apodaca (D) and social activist Peter Debenedittis are also running, and state Sen. Joseph Cervantes (D) says he plans to run. No Republicans have yet announced-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is considering.

WI-Gov: Madison Mayor Paul Soglin (D) says he is preparing campaigns both for governor next year and for re-election as mayor in 2019. He says he plans to make a final decision around Labor Day whether to run for governor. Soglin, 72 has been around politics a long time-he is in his third stint as mayor of the capital city, serving from 1973-79, 1989-97 and from 2011-present.  He also made an unsuccessful run for Congress in 1996 against then-Rep. Scott Klug (R). State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D) filed papers to run on Wednesday-several other Democrats are considering bids.

State & Local:

VA-House: Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D), fresh off his losing campaign for governor, will now head up a PAC dedicated to Democrats trying to take control of the Virginia House. The Win Virginia Now PAC has raised $260,000 so far. Democrats have a steep climb to taking control of the Virginia House-they have not won control since 1997 and would have to pick up 17 seats to do so.

IL-SD-41: State Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R) is resigning today. State Sens. Bill Brady (R) and Karen McConnaughay (R) are the  finalists to replace her as leader; the decision will come in a caucus this morning.

Seattle Mayor: Mayor Ed Murray (D) announced yesterday he will not run for a 2nd term. Murray had dropped out of the race last month after allegations surfaced that he sexually abused teenagers in the 1980s. He had recently been considering re-entering the race as a write-in however. He endorsed former US Attorney Jenny Durkan (D). Other major candidates also running include former Mayor Mike McGinn (D), state Sen. Bob Hasegawa (D), former state Rep. Jessyn Farrell (D), attorney Nikkita Oliver and urban planner Cary Moon.

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