Browsing Tag

ny-24

Political Roundup for December 5th, 2017

Check back at noon today for our preview and open thread for today’s mayoral election in Atlanta. We will start our liveblog at 7pm eastern.

Governor:

ME-Gov: Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) is considering a run for governor in 2018. Pingree has said she will decide by the end of the month whether to enter the race to succeed term limited Gov. Paul LePage (R).

MD-Gov, MD-LG: Gubernatorial candidate Ben Jealous (D) has picked former Maryland Democrat chair Susan Turnbull as his running mate. Jealous is facing Baltimore CE Kevin Kamenetz (D), Prince George’s CE Rushern Baker (D), State Sen. Rich Maladeno (D), and others in the primary to take on popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R).

OH-Gov: Richard Cordray (D) will announce his candidacy for Governor today in his hometown of Grove City, OH. This comes as a complete shock to us because based on his blatant politicization of the CFPB we had assumed Cordray had been running for governor for some time. Luckily for Cordray the Governor of Ohio doesn’t get to handpick his successor on his last day in office. That is a power Cordray believes should only be saved for unelected directors of powerful and unaccountable bureaucratic federal agencies.

SC-Gov, SC-LG: Businessman John Warren (R) is considering a run for governor. If he runs Warren would be the fifth Republican in the race joining incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster, former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill , Catherine Templeton and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant. Meanwhile, McMaster has chosen upstate Some Dudette businesswoman Pamela Evette (R) as his running mate; the state is switching from separate election to Team Primaries for LG this cycle.

TX-Gov: Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) says she’s still considering a run for governor, but that reports that she has resigned to run for governor are false. With incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) sitting on over $41 million in cash and sporting sky high approval ratings Valdez may want to keep her day job and let Mr. Leather International be the sacrificial lamb instead.

Senate:

AL-Sen: With the Flight 93 election taken to its logical conclusion Roy Moore (R) leads Doug Jones by a 49% to 46% margin with write-in candidate Lee Busby at 5% in the latest Emerson College poll. President Donald J. Trump has gone all in in his support of alleged child molester Roy Moore because in 2017 we are long past the point in which anything matters anymore.

AL-Sen: Debbie Wesson Gibson has shared more evidence of the relationship she had with Roy Moore (R) when she was a 17 year old high school student and he was a 34 year old man. Gibson released a handwritten graduation card from Moore to her and recounted her experiences dating Moore in the early 1980s. After telling Sean Hannity that he remembered Gibson as a “good girl” Moore has backtracked and begun publicly claiming he did “not know any of these women”. It was this lie that prompted Gibson to come forward with more evidence of their relationship. In response to the latest evidence that Roy Moore dated underage girls the Republican National Committee has resumed their support of Moore because nothing matters anymore.

ND-Sen: State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt (R) has decided not to run for Senate. Schmidt was heavily recruited to run by the Club for Growth. They even released poll in September that showed Schmidt leading incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) by a 4 point 48% to 44% margin. Last week Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller (R) also declined to run for Senate. So far state Sen. Tom Campbell is the only Republican in the race but Rep. Kevin Cramer could also switch the the senate race. Former Rep. Rick Berg, who narrowly lost to Heitkamp in 2012, is also considering a run.

NJ-Sen: Former Hillary Clinton campaign staffer Michael Starr Hopkins is exploring a primary challenge to defendant sitting Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez recently escaped justice with a hung jury in his first federal corruption trial. Federal prosecutors plan to re-try him in 2018.

UT-Sen: Donald Trump is reportedly going all out to convince Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) to seek re-election in 2018. Apparently Trumpworld thinks an 83 year old Orrin Hatch would be easier to control than a principled Sen. Mitt Romney (R) unafraid to speak his mind as he does here.

House:

CO-3: Attorney and Glenwood Springs City official Karl Hanlon (D) is in and will take on State Rep. Diane Mitch-Busch (D) in the primary for the right to face Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in this R+6 seat.

HI-1: Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin (D) has entered the race for the open D+17 seat Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) is vacating to run for governor. Martin will join state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim and state Rep. Kaniela Ing in seeking the Democrat nomination.

MA-3: Banker and former Cambodian refugee Bopha Malone (D) is in and now we have 12 Democrats running to replace Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) in this D+9 seat! Luckily for the Democrats Massachusetts doesn’t have California top two style jungle primary so the clown car is unlikely to hurt them all that much.

NC-2: Distillery owner Sam Searcy is dropping out of the Democratic primary for this R+7 seat held by Rep. George Holding (R) and will run for the state Senate instead. The wealthy Searcy has been self funding his campaign. Tech executive Ken Romley and former state Rep. Linda Coleman are both still seeking the Democrat nomination.

TX-6: Tarrant County Assessor Ron Wright (R) has filed to run for the R+9 seat photogenic Rep. Joe Barton (R) is retiring from. Wright once served as Barton’s chief of staff.

TX-21: Bexar GOP chair Robert Stovall has announced he is running to replace retiring Rep. Lamar Smith (R) in this R+10 seat. State Rep. Jason Isaac (R) is so far the only other prominent candidate for the seat.

TX-29: Riceland Health Care CEO Tahir Javed (D) filed papers to run for the D+19 seat of retiring Rep. Gene Green (D). Javed joins state Sen. Sylvia Garcia, Dominique Michelle Garcia, teacher Hector Morales, and attorney Roel Garcia in seeking the Democrat nomination.

PPP-Polling: A new poll from PPP shows Gene Ric (D) leading Republican incumbents in CA-25, IA-1, CO-6, VA-10, ME-2 and NY-24. Now all Democrats need to do is find one person named “Gene Ric” who lives in each of these six districts and convince them to run for Congress.

WATN: Former Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) has been sentenced to five years in prison for funneling money into a sham charity she looted.

RIP: Former Rep. John Anderson has passed away at age 95. Anderson was a Rockefeller Republican from Illinois who served 20 years in the House and ran an Independent campaign for President in 1980 and won just under 7% of the vote.

State, Local & Other:

CT-AG: State Rep. William Tong (D) is exploring a bid for the open Attorney General spot and ex-State Rep. John Shaban (R) is in. Meanwhile, there’s some chatter about changing the 10-year practicing law requirement, which makes it one of the strictest offices in the nation to qualify for.

MN-AG: St. Paul City attorney Samuel Clark (D), a former Klobuchar aide, is considering a run for Attorney General. He would join Dayton admin official Mike Rothman (D), State Rep. Debra Hillstrom (D) and ex-State Rep. Ryan Winkler (D).

NM-Auditor: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) has picked Bernalillo County commissioner and unsuccessful 2017 Albuquerque Mayoral candidate Wayne Johnson (R) to fill the Auditor’s seat for the rest of the term. Tim Keller (D) resigned as Auditor last Thursday after he was elected to become the new Mayor of Albuquerque; State Rep. Bill McCamley (D) is in the race for Dems.

NM-LG: Former independent Albuquerque mayoral candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes has changed her voter registration to Republican and will seek the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor next year. Holmes’ announcement comes after former state Indian Affairs Secretary Kelly Zunie withdrew from the race, leaving the Republican Party without a potential candidate. Zunie had tax and residency problems. Rep. Steve Pearce is the only Republican currently running for governor in the shotgun-wedding primary.

ND-SoS: GOP official Will Gardner (R) is primarying longtime incumbent Alvin Jaeger (R), who has announced he will seek an eighth term.

NV-Treas: Ex-State Rep. Andrew Martin (D), who lost a race for Comptroller in the 2014 wave, is running for the open Treasurer seat; incumbent Dan Schwartz (R) is running for Governor.

OH-Treas: 2006 nominee and ex-Ashtabula County Auditor Sandy O’Brien (R) is running again for Treasure. O’Brien probably doesn’t have much chance against State Rep. Robert Sprague (R) in the primary, as she has lost multiple primaries and only won in ’06 against an incumbent closely tied to the toxic Gov. Taft. Former Cincinnati Mayoral candidate Rob Richardson (D) is the likely D nominee.

MA-State Senate President: Massachusetts Senate President Stan Rosenberg (D) is temporarily stepping down from his position after bombshell sexual misconduct allegations against his husband Bryon Hefner have come to light.

CA-AD 45: Yuck! Assemblyman Matt Dababneh (D) is allegedly one sick SOB!

Atlanta-Mayor: Ahead of today’s mayoral runoff election a new Channel 2 Action News/Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows City Councilwoman has Mary Norwood (I) at 51.3 percent and Councilwoman Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 45.1 percent.

Political Roundup for December 1, 2017

Senate:

UT-Sen: It appears that as much as Utah voters don’t want Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) to run again, they’ll still vote for him as long as they know he is a Republican and his opponent is a Democrat. Polls have shown that more than 3/4ths of Utahns don’t want him to run for an 8th term, and a September poll commissioned by Utahpolicy.com and conducted by Dan Jones & Asssociates caught attention by showing him losing by 11 points to Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson (D). But that poll did not identify the candidates by party affiliation. A new poll that does give the candidates’ party affiliations shows Hatch with a 15 point lead, 50-35% over Wilson. Mitt Romney however does much better in a potential matchup, leading Wilson by 51 points, 72-21%.

WV-Sen: Don Blankenship, former CEO of Massey Energy Co., is running for the Republican nomination for US Senate. His company owned a mine that was involved in a 2010 explosion that killed 29 miners, and he was convicted for conspiracy to violate federal mine laws relating to the explosion, and served a year in prison last year. Blankenship claims that the conviction was political and that he was innocent. He joins AG Patrick Morrisey (R) and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R) in the GOP primary. A big stumbling block to his candidacy is that as part of conviction, he is prohibited from leaving Nevada, where he currently resides until May of next year. The primary will be held on May 8.

House:

Conyers: Although Rep. John Conyers (D) says he won’t resign, there is mounting pressure on him to do so, with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) and Assistant Leader James Clyburn (D) now saying he should resign. One aspect of a possible Conyers resignation is that it would make Rep. Don Young (R) of Alaska the Dean of the House. Young would be the first Republican in nearly 85 years to hold the title-the first since Rep. Gilbert Haugen (R) of Iowa held the title from 1928-1933.

NJ-5: Warren County Freeholder Jason Sarnoski (R) will not run for Congress. Sarnoski had formed an exploratory committee to consider running for the Republican nomination to take on Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D). Two other Republicans are in the race-former Bogota Mayor and unsuccessful gubernatorial and US Senate candidate Steve Longean and former Cresskill Councilman John McCann.

NY-24: After previously ruling out a run, Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D) is reconsidering running against Rep. John Katko (R) next year. Miner, who is leaving office at the end of the year, has been heavily recruited to run. Miner cited Katko’s vote for the GOP’s tax bill as making her reconsider. She has also been considering whether to challenge Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) from the left in next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.

PA-10: Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko (R) is challenging Rep. Tom Marino (R) in next year’s Republican primary. McLinko cited the opioid crisis and the 60 Minutes report that caused Marino to withdraw his name to head the Office of National Drug Control Policy as reasons for running.

PA-11: Mike Marsicano, a former Hazleton mayor who was the 2016 Democratic nominee, will run for this seat again. Marsicano lost to Rep. Lou Barletta (R) by 27 points last year. Barletta is running for US Senate. Marsicano was unopposed for the nomination last year, but will have opposition this time. Former state agriculture secretary Denny Wolff and Air Force veteran Robert Alan Howe are running for the Democratic nomination while Luzerne County Councilman Tim McGinley is also considering running. State Rep. Stephen Bloom (R), former state revenue secretary Dan Meuser, businessman Andrew Lewis and Berwick Councilman Andrew Schecktor are running for the Republican nomination while former deputy state Attorney General Joe Peters is considering running.

TX-6: Rep. Joe Barton (R) announced his retirement yesterday-check our post about it yesterday with a Great Mentioner on who may run to succeed him.

TX-29: State Rep. Carol Alvarado (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for Congress. Alvarado was considered to be a potentially strong contender for the seat. She joins state Rep. Armando Walle (D) as candidates declining bids in recent days. As more potentially strong candidates decide not to run, state Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D) seems to be the clear frontrunner. Reflecting this situation, retiring Rep. Gene Green (D) also endorsed Garcia yesterday.

State offices:

AZ-Treas.: State Senate Majority Leader Kimberly Yee (R) announced on Wednesday she will run for State Treasurer. Yee will face Arizona Corporation Commission chairman Tom Forese in the Republican primary. Current Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R), isn’t running for re-election and has been nominated to a post with NASA. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) will appoint DeWit’s successor.

CO-Treas./CO-Leg.: A Democrat is drafting legislation to expel a fellow Democrat from the state House. State Rep. Matt Gray (D) is planning to submit his proposal to the House when they reconvene in January to expel state Rep. Steve Lebsock (D) after he was accused of sexual harassment by multiple women, including another state representative. Lebsock, who is also running for State Treasurer, has refused calls for him to resign. Expulsion of a member requires a two-thirds vote of the chamber, and has only happened once before in Colorado history.

NM-Aud.: State Auditor Tim Keller (D) has resigned and will be sworn in as mayor of Albuquerque today. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) will appoint Keller’s replacement, likely giving the state another Republican statewide officeholder at least until the end of the term next year. Applications are being accepted through today, but there is no timetable on naming a replacement.

PA-LG: Yet another candidate is getting in the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor. State Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) announced Wednesday that she is running. She is the 4th major Democrat to take on incumbent LG Mike Stack (D). The others are Braddock Mayor John Fetterman (D), Chester County Commissioner Kathy Cozzone (D), and Lancaster County Commissioner Craig Lehman (D).

International:

Australia: The first of two by-elections this month in the House of Representatives will be held this Saturday. The by-elections were scheduled because two members were forced to resign their seats after a High Court ruling that barred people with dual citizenship from serving in the Parliament. This Saturday’s election occurs in the New South Wales seat of New England, where National Party Leader Barnaby Joyce will attempt to regain his seat. Joyce is expected to be returned relatively easily. The elections hold unusual importance as the absence of two Coalition members has left the governing Coalition temporarily without a majority and forces them to rely on confidence and supply agreements with two independents.

Political Roundup for October 20, 2017

Senate:

CA-Sen: Left-wing online news host Cenk Uygur is considering getting into the US Senate race. Uygur is cofounder of the left-wing Young Turks Network and hosts the Young Turks show. It was reported last week that his cohost Ana Kasparian was considering running as well, but it’s expected that both won’t run. Uygur would represent another candidate on the left, joining State Senate President Pro Tem Kevin De Leon (D) as candidates running against Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) from the left.

TN-Sen: A good article here from a Democrat about why former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) would be a longshot to be elected to the Senate even if he represents the Democrat’s best chance. Bredesen was the last Democrat to win statewide when he was easily re-elected governor in 2006, but the state’s politics have moved significantly towards the Republican side since then. When Bredesen was last on the ballot in 2006, Democrats held 5 of the state’s 9 US House seats, they controlled the State House and Republicans held the State Senate by the narrowest of margins. Now Republicans hold 7 of the 9 US House seats and control both houses of the Legislature by huge margins. As the article states, now “having a “D” by one’s name is tantamount to electoral doom”. The article compares the situation to that of Bob Kerrey, who had been highly successful electorally in Nebraska in being elected governor and two terms as US senator, but things had changed a lot in the state since he had left office and he lost by 15 points in a comeback attempt in 2012. The article even suggests that Bredesen would have a better chance being elected as an independent than as a Democrat.

House:

IN-4: State Rep. Jim Baird (R) is in for the Republican primary for this open seat. He joins Diego Morales, a former aide to Gov. Mike Pence (R), former state Rep. Steve Braun (R) and Army veteran Jared Thomas in the Republican primary.

NH-1: Ex-Strafford County Attorney Lincoln Soldati (D) has entered the Democratic primary for this open seat. Soldati is the first Democrat to get in the race after Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced her retirement last week. Other Democrats are still considering the race. State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) and former state Liquor Commission Chief of Enforcement Eddie Edwards are in on the Republican side.

NY-24: Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D) has announced she will not run for Congress. Miner had been the most high profile candidate considering a run against Rep. John Katko (R). Small business entrepreneur Anne Messenger and Syracuse University professor Dana Balter are currently running in the Democratic primary.

OH-12: We are starting to get a picture of who is and isn’t interested in running to replace Rep. Pat Tiberi (R). Yesterday, State Sens. Kevin Bacon (R) and Jay Hottinger (R) both indicated they are interested but have not made final decisions. State Rep. Rick Carfagna (R) says he is “certainly considering” the race as well. Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo (R), who dropped out of the race for State Treasurer this week, says he is deferring comment on the race for now. State Rep. Andrew Brenner (R) is not interested and is running for a state Senate seat and author J.D. Vance, who was considered as a possible candidate for US Senate also says he is not interested. State Sen. Kris Jordan (R) and state Rep. Mike Duffey (R) could not be reached for comment on if they are interested. One candidate, Iraq War veteran Brandon Grisez, was already running in the Republican primary before Tiberi announced his resignation on Wednesday.

PA-15: Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein (R) has entered the Republican nomination for the open seat of retiring Rep. Charlie Dent (R). Nothstein, who is also a former gold medal Olympic cyclist joins State Reps. Justin Simmons (R) and Ryan Mackenzie (R) in the GOP race. Lehigh County Commissioner Bill Leiner (D) and pastor Greg Edwards are in on the Democratic side. Northampton County DA John Morganelli (D) and community activist Alan Jennings are also considering entering the Democratic primary as well.

TN-7: Franklin Mayor Ken Moore (R) is considering getting into the Congressional race. He says he’ll decide within the next two weeks whether to get in the race. State Sen. Mark Green (R) is already in the race and has nabbed the endorsement of the Club For Growth. Moore is seen as possibly a more palatable alternative for the more moderate, business-style Republicans than the conservative Green. Songwriter Lee Thomas Miller (R) is also considering getting in the race.

State & Local:

FL-Gov: Billionaire real-estate investor Jeff Greene is considering joining the race for the Democratic nomination for governor. Greene has run for office before, finishing 2nd in the 2010 Democratic primary for US Senate. No candidate has really caught fire with Democratic voters yet-a poll last month showed 44 % of Democrats undecided while wealthy trail attorney John Morgan, who is not yet running lead the named candidates with 23%. Former Rep. Gwen Graham (D) led the declared candidates with 16% with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and businessman Chris King in single digits. Recognizing this, Greene doesn’t feel rushed to make a decision soon.

IL-AG: Jesse Ruiz, an attorney and former chairman of the Illinois State Board of Education is joining the Democratic field for Attorney General. He joins state Sen. Kwame Raoul (D), state Rep. Scott Drury (D) and Sharon Fairly, former head of Chicago’s police oversight agency in the Democratic primary. Former Miss America and congressional candidate Erika Harold is running on the Republican side. Current AG Lisa Madigan (D) is retiring.

RI-AG: State Rep. Robert Craven (D) has announced he will not run for Attorney General. This may clear the Democratic field for former US Attorney Peter Neronha, the only announced candidate so far. Current AG Peter Kilmartin (D) is term limited.

WI-LG: Former state Rep. Mandela Barnes (D) is “strongly considering” getting into the Democratic race for Lieutenant Governor. Barnes is the first prominent Democrat to express a run for the office. Political newcomer Robert Louis Slamka is currently the only Democrat to file to run for LG.

International:

New Zealand: New Zealand First Party leader Winston Peters has made his choice, and he will take his party into coalition with Labour, bringing Labour into government for the first time since 2008. 37 year old Jacinda Ardern will be the new prime minister. NZ First will be a formal coalition partner with Labour, while the Greens will have a confidence and supply agreement with them. This is despite National winning the most votes and the most seats, meaning that for the first time since New Zealand went to the mixed-member proportional system in 1996, the party that won the most votes and seats will not be in the government. National had their vote share cut and their seat total reduced by 2 after special votes were counted a couple of weeks after the September election, but National still held 56 seats, more than the 54 seats combined between Labour and the Greens. Labour-NZ First and the Greens will have 63 seats, while National and ACT New Zealand will have 57 seats.

Political Roundup for September 19th, 2017

First off, there is a single legislative special primary today. MA-SD-Bristol & Norfolk is a D+5 (2016) seat stretching from Seekonk in suburban Providence to Medfield in Boston’s southwest suburbs. Two Democrats and Four Republicans are running. For Dems, Foxborough councilman and Sanders campaign operative Paul Feeney (D) and legislative staffer Ted Phillips (D) are facing off. Feeney is more of a blue-collar liberal while Phillips is a bit more upscale in sensibilities; there is no clear favorite. For Republicans, Baker admin official Mike Berry (R) has the most GOP establishment support and looks like the front-runner. Berry faces three other credible candidates in Chamber of Commerce official Harry Brousaides (R), legislative staffer Jacob Venura (R), and 2014/16 State House candidate Tim Hempton (R), who could each pull the upset. Waiting in the general is well-known retired TV investigative reporter Joe Shortsleeve (I), a former DINO who could have enough name recognition to make it an authentic three-way race or even pull an upset win.

Senate

AL-Sen: A JMC Analytics poll of likely voters shows Roy Moore keeping his large lead over Attorney General and Trump endorsee Luther Strange 47%-39%. This is actually an improvement for Strange, who trailed in the last JMC poll 51%-32%.

Governor

VA-Gov: Two new polls in the Virginia gubernatorial race. One survey shows Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie 44%-39% with Libertarian Cliff Hyra at 3%. However, the Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll surveys “Virginia adults,” without even a voter screen. Meanwhile, a Suffolk University poll of likely voters shows the race tied between Northam and Gillespie at 42% with Hyra at 3% again. We rate this seat Lean Democrat.

MD-Gov: Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz has joined the Democratic field to take on Gov. Larry Hogan (R). The list of other Democratic candidates, lazily grabbed from the article: “Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP leader Ben Jealous, state Sen. Richard Madaleno, technology entrepreneur and author Alec Ross, lawyer Jim Shea and Krish Vignarajah, a former policy director for first lady Michelle Obama.” We rate this seat Lean Republican.

House

MN-1: 2014 and 2016 Republican nominee Jim Hagedorn won the endorsement of two notable former congressmen: Reps. John Kline and Gil Gutknecht. The endorsements continue a continuous run of former Minnesota Republican officeholders backing Hagedorn this cycle. State Sen. Carla Nelson (R) has also been rumored to be strongly considering a run, and her Facebook page’s name recently changed from “Carla Nelson for State Senate” to just “Carla Nelson.”

UT-3: Dan Jones is re-running their poll of UT-3 mentioned in yesterday’s roundup with a full sample from the district instead of a subset from their statewide poll. The reasoning was complaints from third party candidate Jim Bennett, who barely missed the threshold for debate participation with his 6% showing in the survey.

VA-10: One of Rep. Barbara Comstock’s 1,000 opponents is sticking out. Democrat and veteran Dan Helmer sticks out for a terrible ad where he sings bad karaoke to Comstock about not holding town hall meetings. Pretty sure he won’t be her opponent.

MI-11: A lot of movement in Rep. Dave Trott (R)’s suddenly open seat. First off, State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R). Second, Lena Epstein (R) dropped down from the Senate race to this House bid. State Rep. Klint Kesto also plans to run. The article has a Great Mentioner of other candidates on both sides of the aisle. We previously ranked this seat Lean R when Trott was still in the race. Click here for some of yesterday’s discussion of the candidates on RRH Elections.

NY-24: Syracuse professor Dana Balter (R) is in the race against Rep. John Katko (R). While several other Democrats are considering runs in this swing seat that Katko surprisingly locked down over the last two cycles, Onondaga Community College board chair Anne Messenger is already in.

NY-27: Veteran Erin Cole (D) is out after a short-lived campaign. While Rep. Chris Collins is one of the least threatened Republican congressmen in New York, county Democratic leaders have still interviewed a number of potential candidates.

RIP: Longtime former congressman Bill Goodling (R) of Pennsylvania has passed away at the age of 89.

State and Local

TX-leg: Former State Rep. Steve Toth has the support of 30 former and current Republican State Representatives in his comeback bid. Toth left the chamber after a failed primary challenge to Rep. Kevin Brady, the Ways & Means Committee Chairman in Congress. While Toth would be expected to receive significant Freedom Caucus and allied endorsements, there are a few Straus allies that surprisingly make the list like State Reps. JM Lozano and Jason Isaac.

TX-leg: On the other side of the aisle, State Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D) gains another reprieve as the Travis County DA holds off on felony charges of fraud with new information in the case. She still faces two misdemeanor charges.

International

Spain: Spanish federal government authorities are attempting to stifle campaigning in the Catalonian-led independence referendum on October 1st. Besides seizing campaign materials from the pro-independence side, the government is also threatening to arrest Carles Puigdemont, the regional government head, and other government officials supporting the referendum.

Iceland: Iceland’s Parliament has been set to dissolve October 27th; elections will be held October 28th.

 

Political Roundup for July 13, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks (R) has become a strong supporter of President Trump, but during last year’s presidential primary season, he criticized Trump, calling him a “serial adulterer” and saying he couldn’t be trusted. Now some of those anti-Trump comments are being used against him in an ad by the Mitch McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund. Context is important however-Brooks was a supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and was attacking Trump at a time when the two were still fighting each other in the primaries. The McConnell-backed PAC is supporting Sen. Luther Strange (R).

FL-Sen: Gov. Rick Scott (R) has not announced a run for US Senate yet, but it’s said to be an “open secret” that he is planning on running and it’s just a matter of making it official. Waiting a long time to get in would not be a surprise-Scott waited until April of 2010 to enter the Republican nomination for governor, although strategists say he will probably need to enter the Senate race a little sooner. No other major Republican is apparently considering the race, meaning the nomination is likely Scott’s for the taking.

IN-Sen: Rep. Todd Rokita (R) has raised about $1 million for the Senate race against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) next year and has $2.3 million cash on hand. As his campaign noted, it is more money than Sen. Todd Young (R) had raised at the same point two years ago for his successful race. Rep. Luke Messer (R), who is also considering a bid for Senate, has not released his 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers, yet but has a strong fundraising team, including Greg Pence, brother of the vice president and ended the previous quarter with a slight cash on hand lead.

MA-Sen: State Rep. Geoff Diehl (R) plans to make it official on Aug. 1 that he is running for US Senate. He will face scientist, entrepreneur and self-proclaimed “inventor of e-mail” Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination to face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D).

MI-Sen: Entertainer Kid Rock(real name Robert Ritchie) claimed yesterday that a website, kidrockforsenate.com suggesting that he is running for US Senate is indeed real and promises a “major announcement in the near future”. Former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Young, Jr. and businesswoman Lena Epstein, former co-chair of Donald Trump’s Michigan campaign are both running already for the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).

House:

CA-7: Business executive and Marine veteran Andrew Grant (R) is challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D). The seat is one of the few offensive opportunities Republicans have in California-Bera has never won by more than 3 points in his 3 terms. Bera won by 2 points over Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones (R) in 2016 as Hillary Clinton won the district by 11 points.

NM-2: State Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) of Alamogordo is the first Republican to jump into this open seat race. Herrell is considered one of the more conservative members in the state House. State Sen. Cliff Pirtle (R) of Roswell and Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (R) are also considering getting into the Republican primary. Attorney David Baake and military veteran and progressive activist Tony Martinez, both of Las Cruces are running for the Democratic nomination. Both entered the race before Rep. Steve Pearce (R) decided to run for governor-other more high-profile Democrats may now decide to run as well.

NY-24: Community leader Anne Messenger has become the first Democrat to announce a run against Rep. John Katko (R). Katko has fared very well in what had been a competitive district-defeating Rep. Dan Maffei (D) by 19 points in 2014 and Colleen Deacon (D) by 21 points last year as the district shifted to the right at the presidential level with Clinton winning it only by 4 whereas Obama won it in 2012 by 16.

WA-8: Jason Rittereiser (D), a former King County Deputy Prosecutor is running to challenge Rep. Dave Reichert (R). Hillary Clinton won the district by 3 points last year, and the DCCC is targeting the seat, although Reichert won by a fairly comfortable 60-40 margin last year  and has not been seriously challenged since 2010. Issaquah City Council member Tola Marts (D) is running as are military veteran Poga Ahn (D) and former candidate Thomas Cramer (D).

Governor:

CO-Gov: After Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) bowed out of the race this week, now LG Donna Lynne (D) is reconsidering an earlier decision not to run. Lynne was appointed to the Lieutenant Governor’s office last year after then LG Joe Garcia (D) resigned to take another job and she said in her first news conference after being appointed that she did not intend to run for governor. Lynne’s decision to reconsider indicates some nervousness among Democrats that their current primary field, including Rep. Jared Polis (D), former state Sen. Mike Johnston (D) and former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D) may pull the party too far to the left. Some supporters of Perlmutter have reached out to Lynne to get her to run. In news on the Republican side, Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R), who recently filed for divorce from her husband Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is sounding more serious about running. She would join an already crowded field of Republicans running or expected to run.

CT-Gov: Two candidates, one Democrat and one Republican have announced they are joining this open seat race. Middletown Mayor Dan Drew (D) is the first major Democrat in the race-several others are considering. Former US Comptroller General David Walker is joining the race for the Republican nomination-Walker was an unsuccessful candidate for the GOP nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2014 and considered running for president as a third party candidate in 2012, running on the theme of fiscal responsibility. Walker joins Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, Trumbell First Selectman Tim Herbst and state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan in the Republican race.

NM-Gov/Sen/NM-1: LG John Sanchez (R), announced yesterday he would not run for governor, endorsing Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Sanchez was one of the few other big-name Republicans thought to be considering the race-Albuquerque Mayor Richard Barry (R) may still get in. Sanchez is still thought to be considering running for US Senate against Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), or going for the open NM-1 seat, being left open by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who is running for governor.

WI-Gov: Businessman Andy Gronik is the first Democrat to enter the race for governor against Gov. Scott Walker (R). Among other policy proposals, Gronik says he would seek to repeal Act 10, the law that eliminated collective bargaining for public workers and prompted numerous protests and recall elections for state legislators and Walker himself. Many other Democrats are still considering, including State School Superintendent Tony Evers, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D) and several others.

Political Roundup for April 25th, 2017

National:

Abortion: Tom Perez, newly-elected head of the DNC, has declared that Democrats are completely Pro-Choice and that the DNC will not support insufficient Pro-Choice candidates. Naturally, this has caused quite a bit of controversy given that Abortion cuts across political lines far more than you would expect (something like 25% of the Democrat’s voters are Pro-Life, and something similar for the GOP and Pro-Choice), and Nonwhite Democrats in particular are far less likely to support Abortion than White ones. While this probably won’t change many minds, it is a nice reminder of the state of chaos the Democrats are in post-Clintonpocalypse, and a marked departure from the Democrat’s famous 50-state strategy that won them the House in 2006.

Evan McMullin: The former Independent Conservative Presidential candidate is going to be running for . . . something. He hasn’t told us yet, and in fact I’m not sure he knows yet. McMullin probably needs to find some way to get donors to back him to help pay off his staggering debt from his presidential campaign, but the polls so far have him doing remarkably well in Utah. Honestly, I think we can probably cross Texas off as the Senate seat the Democrats need to win next year to flip the Senate, as there’s probably a better chance they pick up 2 in 2018 and McMullin beats Hatch to give the Democrats a 50-49 majority in the body.

Taxes: Trump’s big tax announcement coming Wednesday is apparently not going to be a finalized proposal, which isn’t coming until June. Given how much we mucked up Healthcare, I’d prefer going nice and slow and making sure everyone knows what we’re doing as opposed to the make-it-up-as-we-go-along of the AHCA.

Trump: Despite all the wailing of the media establishment, Trump voters are sticking with their guy. Only 2% regret their decision, and 96% say it was the right thing to do. People may not like Trump, but the still consider him preferable to the status quo, which is probably going to be the story of his Presidency.

Congress:

GA-6: Nate Cohn has notice an unexpected trend here—Trump actually did reasonably well with the voters who were registered in the district before mid-2015, but got walloped with those who registered since then. He predicts Trump would have won this seat by 10.5% had he been facing the 2012 electorate. There are two ways to read this—the first is that the Atlanta Suburbs are exploding with new people, and once the 2020 census comes around we’re all going to be amazed at the fact that this was once a GOP district based on the demographics, or Trump brought a whole bunch of reluctant Dem voters out of the woodwork . . .but not quite enough for him to lose.

MI-1: The Democrats have a candidate for this seat, and this one is actually a Yooper! Dwight Brady, a professor at NMU, has announced he is running for this seat, which absolutely galloped towards Trump last year. No word on whether or not he’s sufficiently Pro-Choice to receive DNC funding yet.

NJ-5: This seat, which is the latest in the Republicans-should-never-have-lost-it-but-did-with-a-knucklehead-incumbent tradition of seats, is apparently going to see a major GOP primary for the right to take on freshmen incumbent Josh Gottheimer (D) in this Northern-Jersey seat. The candidates are State Committee Chairman Sam Raia and Bergen fundraiser Chuck Shotmeyer. Expect this to be a big $ affair, as this is the closest seat to Wall Street that can realistically elect a Republican.

NY-24: John Katko, 2-time winner of the “How on earth do you win by that much?” award for Congressional overperformance, has shot down rumors that he was planning to run for New York Attorney General. This is good for us, as he is currently tying down a light-blue Upstate seat that would be tough to defend in a Trump midterm.

PA-Sen: Jeff Bartos, a Republican from Lower Merion, has announced he is running for Senate against Dem incumbent Bob Casey Jr. Bartos is an interesting pick, given that he’s from one of the bluest parts of the state and been a Democrat supporter and donor as recently as 2012, and is running very much in the Fiscon mold in a Republican party this is clearly moving in the other direction. Besides, who’s ever heard of a real estate mogul from a super-blue upscale area who has a history of donating to and supporting Democrats winning Pennsylvania as a Republican? Can’t be done I tell you!

State & Local:

CO-Gov: Jared Polis, the 5-term Democrat from Boulder, is thinking about running for Governor. Polis, who is probably one of the nicest members of Congress and who has a history of pushing an unorthodox form of upscale Liberalism, would be a strong contender for Governor of Colorado, but he faces the obvious challenge of fellow Dem rep Ed Perlmutter, who has already announced and who is far closer to Generic D. If he does pull the trigger, expect the Teacher’s Unions to carpet-bomb his candidacy back to the stone age over his strong support of school choice.

MA-Gov: Former Democratic Lt. Gov candidate Robert Massie has announced he is running for Governor of the Bay State. Massie has a long history as a progressive activist in Massachusetts, but is probably most famous for being on the same ticket as Mark Roosevelt’s 1994 blowout loss to Bill Weld. Considering he is now running against an uber-popular moderate Republican incumbent Governor, he might be interested in repeating history. Let’s see if he can lose Boston to a Republican again!

MI-Gov: Lt. Governor Brian Calley has released a new soft-spoken ad where he talks about his daughter, and hinted at a major announcement late next month. The smart money’s on a run for Governor, though I guess he could be aiming to take on Stabenow for Senate as well, since Michigan is the only Trump state in the country without at least one Republican Senator.

NH-State-House: A New Hampshire State Rep has switched her party from the Democrats to the GOP. I’m sure her ~150 constituents are heartbroken.

VA-Gov: Elizabeth Warren has endorsed Tom Perriello for Governor, continuing the trend of the Democrat’s Left wing jumping behind Perriello as opposed to the more moderate and established Lt. Governor Ralph Northam. This race is shaping up to be the first conflict in the Democrat’s looming ideological battle, and will be interesting to watch to see if the normally well-disciplined Democrats are still willing to vote for their establishment-backed candidate over the Bold Progressive.

Other:

France-1: Here’s a nice interactive map of the 2017 1st round French election results.

France-2: Le Pen has made the startling and unexpected announcement that she is stepping down as leader of the Front National ahead of the May runoff election. Nominally this is to let her focus more on competing for the runoff, but might also be an attempt to distance herself from the incredible baggage associated with the FN name and try to give her candidacy a more independent-oriented flavor like Macron has done.

UK-1: UK pollsters have finally found a demographic that is supporting Labor over the Tories! Unfortunately for Corbyn, that demographic is seats that Labor won by more than 15% in 2015 . . .and they’re only up 11 points there. The same poll has Labor seats that were closer than 15% voting for the Tories by 17 points. Corbyn is going to have to pull off one hell of a miracle if he wants to avoid going down in history as the worst leader the Labor party has had since Ramsay MacDonald.

UK-2: A poll of Wales has come out, and it shows the Tories with a 10-point lead there, even though the Tories have literally never held the most seats in Wales since the founding of the Liberal Party in the mid-19th century. If this holds, it will probably result in the Tories taking a healthy majority of Wales’s 40 seats, and probably wiping Labor out of everything outside its ancestral home in the Welsh Coal Fields north of Cardiff.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!