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Political Roundup for November 14, 2017

Governor:

CO-Gov: Arapahoe District Attorney George Brauchler (R) is dropping out of the race for governor and will instead run for the open Attorney General spot. Brauchler was once considered one of the favorites for the Republican nomination but the GOP primary has gotten especially crowed with the entry of former Rep. Tom Tancredo, Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton and Victor Mitchell. Brauchler should have a clear shot at the Attorney General position.

RI-Gov: We want the Fung, gotta have that Fung! A TargetPoint Consulting internal poll for Allan Fung (R) shows him leading the GOP primary by more than 20 points; Fung 45%, Patricia Morgan 24%, Joseph Trillo 10% and unsure at 20% and Fung beating incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) 46% to 41%.

WI-Gov: The field of Democrats seeking their party’s gubernatorial nomination has grown even larger. Firefighter union chief Mahlon Mitchell announced he will run for Governor. Mitchel, who is African American, was the Democrat nominee for Lt Governor in the 2012 recall elections. Other Democrats that are running or actively exploring a run include Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, former state Rep. Kelda Roys, state superintendent of public instruction Tony Evers, former Democratic Party chairman Matt Flynn, Milwaukee businessman Andy Gronik, former Wisconsin Democracy Campaign executive director Mike McCabe, Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, Rep. Dana Wachs, Michelle Doolan, Bob Harlow, Dave Heaster, Brett Hulsey, Kurt Kober, Jared Landry, Andrew Lust, Jeffrey Rumbaugh and Ramona Whiteaker. Candidates have until June 1 to submit all paperwork to appear on the Aug. 14 gubernatorial primary ballot. The winner of the Democrat primary will face Gov. Scott Walker who will have his 4th statewide run for Governor in 8 years.

Senate:

AL-Sen: At a press conference yesterday Beverly Young Nelson accused Roy Moore (R) of sexually assaulting her when she was 16 years old. Nelson produced a copy of her High School yearbook which Moore signed “To a sweeter more beautiful girl I could not say ‘Merry Christmas, Love, Roy Moore, D.A.”. As the scandal widens and polls show Democrat Doug Jones leading the election calls have increase for Roy Moore to step aside. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) became the latest to call on Moore to “step aside” and NRSC Chair Cory Gardner said Roy Moore is “unfit to serve in the United States Senate and he should not run for office. If he refuses to withdraw and wins, the Senate should vote to expel him, because he does not meet the ethical and moral requirements of the … Senate.” It is becoming clear that the only shot the GOP has at keeping this seat would be through some sort of organized write-in campaign.

MI-Sen: A new poll shows Detroit businessman John James in the lead for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. John James is at 24%, Rep. Fred Upton (who is currently seeking re-election to the House) is at 19% and former Chief Justice Robert Young trails with 7%. The winner of the GOP primary will face Sen. Debbie Spenditnow Stabenow (D) who is probably breathing a heavy sigh of relief that her GOP opponent won’t have a nickname with the words “Kid” and “Rock” in it.

NJ-Sen: Jurors in the trial of Sen. Bob Menendez (D) seems to be deadlocked. They sent the judge a note on Monday saying they “can’t reach a unanimous verdict on any of the charges” and the judge ordered them deliberating to try and reach a verdict.

House:

MA-3: Former ambassador to Denmark Rufus Gifford (D) announced his candidacy for the open  D+9 seat Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) is retiring from. Gifford, who is gay, has not lived in Massachusetts in 20 years but is originally from Manchester-by-the-Sea which is well outside the district. Gifford gained some notoriety in 2012 as one of Obama’s top fundraisers. He sent over 10 million emails to people on Obama’s email list asking for money and was even called the “Spam King” by BuzzFeed.

NJ-5: Our friend Miles Coleman has plugged the New Jersey gubernatorial numbers into the New Jersey congressional districts and finds that in NJ-5 was a virtual tie with Murphy edging out Guadagno by a mere 231 votes. Freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer won this district last year despite Trump winning the district by 1.3%.

OH-16: Former NFL wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (R) picked up the endorsement of neighboring OH-7 Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) for this open R+8 district. Gibbs will headline a fundraiser for Gonzalez at the Brookside Country Club in Canton, OH which is the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

PA-10: After several on again off again nominations for Drug Czar Rep. Tom Marino will seek re-election in 2018 to this fairly safe R+16 seat.

TX-29: In case you missed it, Rep. Gene Green (D) is retiring. Scroll down for our full write up and great mentioner on possible replacements for this D+19 seat.

SALT: The repeal of the state and local tax exemption could be the kiss of death for congressional Republicans in states like California, New York and New Jersey. Seven California Reps. Darrell Issa, Dana Rohrabacher, Mimi Walters, Ed Royce, Steve Knight, David Valadao and Jeff Denham could all face major blowback if the Republican “tax cuts” end up raising taxes on their constituents.

State, Local & Other:

PA-Lt Gov: I guess when you are living in a former Chevy dealership and off of the trust fund your parents set up for you an official residence in Harrisburg with a full staff of state workers waiting on you hand and foot must sound pretty good. With that in mind Braddock Mayor and former US Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) has announced he will challenge incumbent Lt. Gov (and friend to state troopers and household staff) Mike Stack III (D).

Albuquerque, NM-Mayor: Today is election day in Albuquerque. The latest Journal Poll published before the election had state Auditor Tim Keller (D) with a 16 point lead over City Councilman Dan Lewis (R). We will have a preview and open thread at Noon ET; our liveblog will start at 9PM.

New Orleans, LA-Mayor: The latest University of New Orleans Poll has Latoya Cantrell posting a 11 point lead over Desiree Charbonnet ahead of Saturday’s runoff election.

Political Roundup for October 18, 2017

Last night, Democrats held MA-SD-Bristol & Norfolk by a smaller than expected 47-43 margin. Now as polling seems to indicate that Alabama might go blue while Virginia might go red, but New Jersey remains solidly anti-Christie, it is time for today’s roundup:

Presidential/National

Soros:  George Soros (Bane of Right) has transferred $18 billion to his Open Society Foundations in an effort to free up even more funds for political purposes, which should not be much different than prior behavior.

Subsidies:  Senators Lamar Alexander (R?) and Patty Murray (D) have reached an agreement on restoring Obamacare subsidies for 2 years in exchange for loosing Obamacare restrictions imposed upon the states.  It is not clear that such a compromise will get a vote in either chamber even though President Trump supports.

Trump/McCain:  President Trump (R?) and Senator John McCain (Maverick War Hero) are going back and forth on nationalism.  McCain started the latest round of the Trump / McCain feud by attacking Trump’s brand of nationalism.

Congress

AL-Sen:  Think Progress has thrown a tsunami of cold water on Fox News’s Senate poll showing the race a dead heat.

MI-11:  State Representative Tim Greimel (D) will be the fourth Democrat to enter the race to replace retiring Representative Dave Trott (R).  Greimel was the state House Minority Leader between 2013 and 2016.

PA-10:  Representative Tom Marino (R-Big Pharma) has withdrawn his name for nomination to be Drug Czar after the press did its job an exposed him being in the pocket of opioid manufacturers in the pharma industry.  Marino should be concerned in this district as its been ravaged by the opioid crisis.

States

VA-Gov: Monmouth – Gillepsie 48 Northam 47, Christopher Newport Northam 48 Gillepsie 44

NJ-Gov: Fairleigh Dickinson and Fox News – Murphy 48 Guadagno 33

NJ-Legislature:  The latest on whats happening with the Democratic legislative leadership battles and any potential gains the Democrats might make in the Legislature this year.  It sounds like the lower house remains up for grabs between the North and South Jersey Democrats while there is little belief the Democrats will pick up any seats.

NJ-SD-3:  State Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Norcross) is being outspent on the PAC front by the NJEA whose backing RINO Fran Grenier against Sweeney because he has spoken out against the NJEA’s outrageous behavior/demands.

International

Japan: The center-right (sort of)/ statist Liberal Democratic Party is on its way to a massive landslide.  The LDP is on pace to win approximately 2/3 of the seats in the lower house, which is near an all-time record for Prime Minister Abe’s LDP.

Political Roundup for September 12th, 2017

It’s Primary Day in NY! Check out our preview HERE and check back with us tonight at 7:30pm ET for our election results liveblog!

Governor:

MN-Gov: Throw another name into the crowded GOP gubernatorial great mentioner. State Sen. Julie Rosen (R) confirmed she is considering a bid for governor.

Senate:

AL-Sen: Emerson has Roy Moore leading appointed Sen. Luther Strange by a 40% to 26% margin ahead of the September 26th GOP runoff. Emerson polled the general election as well and found Moore leading Democrat Doug Jones by a very narrow 44% to 40% margin.

MI-Sen: Kid Rock took to Facebook to fire back at Rev. Al “Slim Shady” Sharpton after Sharpton’s extortion protest scam operation National Action Network announced they would protest upcoming Kid Rock concerts. Kid Rock wrote “I love black people”, “Sam Riddle is a piece of sh*t criminal” and encouraged everyone to Google him, “F*ck ANYONE who takes a knee or sits during our national anthem!”, that the Tweet gloating about Al Sharpton’s daughter getting arrested for assaulting a cab driver did not come from him and the story was “fake news” and that “I can’t wait to rock everyone’s socks off at LCA the next few weeks!”. Oh, yeah this will be a fun senate campaign if he runs!

ND-Sen: Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller (R) is considering a run for Senate against Democrat Sen. Heidi  Heitkamp. Miller has been heavily recruited by North Dakota GOP officials for weeks now but still has not made up her mind about running. State Senator Tom Campbell (R) is officially in the race and campaigning hard. Rep.  Kevin Cramer (R) is considering a run as well. State Rep. Rick Becker (R), former Congressman Rick Berg (R), and State Board of Higher Education member Kathy Neset (R) are also contemplating running for Senate. Miller is reportedly close with former Rep. Rick Berg so if she runs for Senate chance are Berg will not be seeking a rematch with Heitkamp.

NV-Sen: Donald Trump’s former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon has met with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) and promised him his full backing in his primary with Sen. Dean Heller (R).

TN-Sen: Sen. Bob Corker (R) is contemplating his future and is considering maybe retiring in 2018. Corker is the Chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee and was once considered for a spot in President Trump’s cabinet. Since then Corker’s had a falling out with Trump. Corker has faced questions from the Feds about possible insider trading regarding his investments in Tennessee-based REIT, CBL & Associates but since that story broke in early 2016 not much more has come out about it. Corker is sitting on more than $7 million in cash in his campaign account so he either has plenty of money on hand to fund his re-election or pay for his legal bills or a great slush fund for his next career as a lobbyist.

UT-Sen: If Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) decides to retire in 2018 sources say that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will run for his senate seat.

WI-Sen: Wisconsin state Sen. Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) will not run for US Senate vs Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and will back state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) instead.

House:

MI-6: #FakeNews alert!!! Rep. Fred Upton (R) denies “The Failing New York Times” #FakeNews “report” and insists he has no plans to retire in 2018.

MI-11: In case you missed it, two term Rep. Dave Trott (R) will retire and will not seek re-election in 2018.

NJ-2: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) confirms to The Hill that he will seek re-election in 2018. Now let’s start the countdown until state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) confirms he will not challenge Rep. Lobiondo.

PA-7: DelCo GOP fans can rest easy as Rep. Pat Meehan (R) confirms that he is not the the retirement watch list and that he will seek re-election in 2018.

PA-10: When Rep. Tom Marino takes over as Drug Czar local party GOP officials will pick the GOP candidate for the special election. Former president of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau and former chairman of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Keith Eckel (R) looks like the favorite to get the GOP nomination. Eckel is 70 years old. If Eckel passes Marino’s district director David Weber is also thought to be a likely candidate.

State, Local & Other:

NV-Lt Gov: Former two-term secretary of state Ross Miller (D) will most likely not run for Lt. Governor and will most likely defer to former state Treasurer Kate Marshall (D).

Political Roundup for September 5, 2017

First off, there is a single legislative special today. SC-LD-113 is a D+19 (2016) seat covering a thin stripe of racially-mixed lower-middle-class suburbs of Charleston from North Charleston to Summerville. Trial lawyer Marvin Pendarvis (D), who is a close confidante of the area’s state Senator, looks like the clear favorite in the primary with a chance to win outright, but he also faces school board member Chris Collins (D) and marketing consultant Angela Hanyak (D), each of whom could potentially make a runoff. Two Republicans are facing off for the right to lose.

Senate:

AL-Sen: This story looks at how ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D) is not getting much national support for his Senate run in December, unlike several other Dem special election candidates from earlier this year. It seems in part due to Jones being more conscious of his red state and attempting to run as a conservative Democrat rather than a vanguard of the #resistance. As the runoff between appointed incumbent Luther Strange (R) and ex-State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) consumes most of the oxygen for this month, Jones is attempting to fly under the radar and emerge as an acceptable alternative to the GOP nominee. Regardless of Jones’s national support or lack thereof, his odds are still long in the deep-red state.

More AL-Sen: Moore had an embarrassing moment late last week in which he appeared to have no idea what the DACA program was. It’s too early to say if this gaffe will have resonance but it’s certainly not a positive for him so close to the runoff.

AZ-Sen: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is still “seriously considering” a run for Senate. Sinema is widely expected to run as she is considered to be Dems’ strongest possible recuit against vulnerable Sen. Jeff Flake (R). Ex-State Sen. Kelli Ward (R) is running against Flake in the primary.

IN-Sen: Another story is out corroborating allegations that Rep. Todd Rokita (R) is a bad boss to his staffers. The story has several nuggets of Rokita generally being a, for lack of a better word, jerk. For example, “a worker was booted from a staff meeting and instructed to clean Rokita’s vehicle, which included scrubbing the carpets” because a volunteer driver had BO. Rokita is facing fellow Rep. Luke Messer (R) in what is expected to be a tough primary for the right to take on Sen. Joe Donnelly (D).

MO-Sen: A new MOScout poll has AG Josh Hawley (R) leading incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 50-45. Hawley, who is in his first term as AG, is widely expected to run against McCaskill after being recruited by the entire GOP establishment.

Governor:

HI-Gov: State Rep. Bob McDermott (R) has abruptly dropped out of the race for Governor after learning that another Republican is planning to run. Rumors are that candidate is State Rep. Andria Tupola (R), a moderate who, unlike the staunchly socially conservative McDermott, could be a credible general election candidate. Separately this weekend, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) surprisingly announced her intent to primary Gov. David Ige (D); click for our full recap on the decision and Great Mentioner for the now-open HI-1.

IL-Gov: State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) has lost an endorsement from Rep. Brad Schneider (D) with his choice of LG running mate, Chicago councilman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (D). Ramirez-Rosa, 28, is a supporter of the anti-Israel BDS movement. Biss is facing businessmen J.B. Pritzker (D) and Chris Kennedy (D), Chicago councilman Ameya Pawar (D), state Rep. Scott Drury (D), and local superintendent Bob Daiber (D) in the primary. Pritzker is generally considered the front-runner to take on Gov. Bruce Rauner (R).

ME-Gov: Jon Jenkins (I), who served as Mayor of both Lewiston and Auburn, as well as a term in the State Senate in the 90s, is considering an Indie bid. Jenkins would be the third credible Indie contender in this race, joining appointed State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I) and comedian Karmo Sanders (I). Dems and Republicans look set to have crowded primary fields as well, with ex-Gov. John Baldacci (D) and Sen. Susan Collins (R) among the highest-profile candidates considering.

MN-Gov: Ramsey County commissioner Blake Huffman (R) has dropped out of the race for Governor. 2014 nominee and Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R), State Sen. David Osmek (R), State Rep. Matt Dean (R), and ex-State Rep. and MNGOP chair Keith Downey (R) remain in the GOP convention race, with several others, most notably State House Speaker Kurt Daudt (R), considering. Democrats have a crowded field as well.

OH-Gov: Speculation is growing that Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray (D) will step down to enter the race for Ohio Governor. Cordray, a former AG and State Treasurer, would likely become the front-runner for the Democratic nomination over the current crowded field of “B” and “C” listers. Ex-Rep. Betty Sutton (D), Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D), State Sen. Joe Schiavoni (D), and ex-State Rep. and 2014 State Treasurer nominee Connie Pillich (D) are in the Dem race already. Four Republicans are also running.

WI-Gov: Nonprofit exec Mike McCabe (D) has entered the race for Governor. State Superintendent Tony Evers (D) is the front-runner for the nomination to take on Gov. Scott Walker (R), but State Rep. Dana Wachs (D) and businessman Andy Gronik (D) are also in the race.

KY-Gov ’19: Ex-State House Speaker and AG Greg Stumbo (D) is considering a run for Governor in 2019. Stumbo is a liberal who is known as a bare-knuckled political brawler but has proven himself convtroversial in his red state. AG Andy Beshear (D) is also thought to be considering a run; the primary winner will face incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in the general.

House:

KS-2: Brownback admin official Antonio Soave (R), a former Italian semi-professional soccer player, is considered likely to run for this open Topeka-area seat. Soave currently lives in KS-3 but will move into the 2nd to run. He will join a crowded primary field of State Sens. Steve Fitzgerald (R) and Caryn Tyson (R), State Rep. Kevin Jones (R), and Basehor councilman Vernon Fields (R) in the GOP primary. Ex-state Rep. and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis (D) is the likely Dem nominee for this medium-red seat.

OH-16: Former OSU football star Anthony Gonzalez (R) has filed to run for this open seat, joining moderate State Rep. Tom Patton (R) and Trumpist State Rep. Christina Hagan (R) in the race. Gonzalez has hired a former Rob Portman campaign operative as his campaign treasurer, suggesting he could have significant establishment support. The GOP field for this medium-red Cleveland and Akron suburban seat is likely to grow.

OK-1: Trump has tapped Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R) to serve as NASA director, but the question over whether there will be a special for this Tulsa-area seat before the 2018 general is very much up in the air. Bridenstine would need to resign before the end of the year to allow a special to be held at all. With a primary runoff likely to be necessary, March is the earliest the special general could be held. And even for that, Bridenstine would need to vacate the seat on the likely-too-short-timeline of within the next few weeks. Click here for our full report and Great Mentioner on the seat. As a side note, by contrast, the situation in the other seat for which Trump has tapped a sitting Rep. (PA-10) is much easier. Rep. Tom Marino’s (R) administration position does not require Senate confirmation, and Pennsylvania does not have special primaries, meaning the seat could be up as quickly as this November.

PA-15: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) has revealed text messages from his primary challenger, State Rep. Justin Simmons (R) in which Simmons asked for Dent’s endorsement for re-election and expressed a desire to replace Trump as the GOP presidential nominee. Simmons is attempting to portray himself as a stronger Trump supporter than the moderate Dent in this light-red Lehigh Valley area seat.

State & Local:

HI-LG: State Sens. Josh Green (D) and Will Espero (D) have declared for LG, joining fellow State Sen. Jill Tokuda (D) and Maui CE Alan Arakawa (D) in the shotgun-wedding race. Espero might be someone to watch for a quick exit from the race, as he ran for HI-1 in 2014 and could try again now that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) is running for Governor.

LA-PSC-2: Ex-State Rep. Lenar Whitney (R) has secured the official endorsement of the state party in this race. Whitney is an antiesatblishment conservative who lost her 2015 re-election bid to a more moderate Republican. In this race, she is facing two RINOs for the deep-red seat, D-turned-R appointed incumbent Damon Baldone (R) and Gov. Edwards-endorsing surgeon Craig Greene (R).

Westchester, NY-CE: Incumbent Rob Astorino (R) has been sending out mailers to unaffiliated voters to get them to write his name in for the Reform Party nomination.  Astorino created the Reform Party as a vanity line (with the “Stop Common Core” name) for his 2014 gubernatorial run, but then lost control of it to talk radio host Curtis Sliwa. Sliwa’s organization has now endorsed Astornio’s most likely rival for re-election, State Sen. George Latimer (D). However, Astorino was able to force a primary, which is open to unaffiliated voters as well as the negligible number of Reform Party registrants.

Milwaukee, WI-Sheriff: Controversial DINO Sheriff David Clarke resigned last week without immediate explanation. It’s unclear if Clarke is in line for a Trump administration post or if he is headed to some sort of Cable TV gig.

OK-1, PA-10: Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R) to NASA, Rep. Tom Marino (R) to be Drug Czar

The Trump administration has officially nominated a pair of Republican congressmen to administration posts.

Third-term Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R) has been officially nominated to be NASA director. Bridenstine was obeying self-imposed term limits and not seeking a fourth term representing OK-1, an R+17 district covering the bulk of metropolitan Tulsa. However, his nomination likely means that an early special will be triggered. Four Republicans are already in the race and should be expected to run in the special: State Sen. Nathan Dahm (R), a staunch social conservative, Tulsa DA Tim Harris (R), businessman Kevin Hern (R), and nonprofit exec Andy Coleman (R). Bridenstine’s 2016 opponent, businessman Tom Atkinson (R), might be a name to watch to try again, as could many other names on the area’s deep GOP bench. However, those four candidates will have a jump on any new entries, so I wouldn’t expect the field to grow very much from there.

Separately, Trump also officially selected PA-10 Rep. Tom Marino (R) as drug czar. The nomination was rumored to be withdrawn earlier this year but is apparently back on now. Click Here for our full Great Mentioner for the R+15 central PA seat.

Political Roundup for May 4, 2017

Polling Update: We are still trying to raise money to poll the GA-6 runoff and maybe even MT-AL special election if we can get enough contributions. If you want to help make the polls possible please go to:   https://www.paypal.me/RedRacingHorses and contribute today!

Governor:

GA-Gov: State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) had filed paperwork to run for governor. Abrams is the highest profile Democrat so far to express an interest in the open race for governor and should be the favorite to win the Democrat nomination.

NJ-Gov: Former Goldman Sachs Master of the Universe Phil Murphy (D) leads Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) by a 50% to 25% margin. What is truly remarkable about this poll is that 57% of New Jersey voters haven’t heard enough about either Murphy or Guadagno to form an opinion of them yet Murphy’s still leading by more than 25 points! Thank you Gov. Christie.

NJ-Gov: What Exit? Former “Saturday Night Live” star Joe Piscopo will not run for governor of New Jersey, and will instead endorse Republican front-runner Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. Piscopo was contemplating running for Governor at first as a Republican and then as an Independent.

VA-Gov: And the award for non-sequiter of the year goes to…. Ralph Northam (D) who begins his latest TV ad talking about gun control and then out of nowhere announces that he thinks “Donald Trump is a nacessictic maniac” and that he’s “not letting him bring his hate to Virginia”.

Senate:

OH-Sen: The latest Gravis Marketing poll has state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) leading alleged wife beater incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by a 45% to 42% margin. Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) who is weighing a run for senate would trail Brown by 2 points 43% to 41%.

PA-Sen: President Donald Trump is encouraging Rep. Lou Barletta (R) to run for Senate against Sen. Bob Casey (D) next year. Barletta could be a strong recruit for a Senate race that so far has not attracted any major GOP challengers.

House:

AL-2: Rep. Martha Roby (R) has drawn a primary challenger. State Rep. Barry Moore (R) has filed to run. Roby was vocal in her criticism of Donald Trump after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced. As a result, almost 30,000 write-in votes were tallied for a pro-Trump congressional write-in candidate in the 2016 election. Moore is from Coffee County, which is in the rural part of the district. The rural counties south of Montgomery cast about 60% of the GOP primary vote, with the rest from Roby’s home area in Montgomery and its northern suburbs/exurbs. Moore was charged with and found not guilty of lying to a grand jury in the corruption investigation aimed at then-Speaker Mike Hubbard (R). During the trial recordings of Moore passing along threats from Hubbard to local politicians in the town of Enterprise in an effort to get a primary challenger to drop his campaign against Moore where played.

IA-1: State Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) announced she would run for Congress and challenge Rep. Rod Blum (R).

MT-AL: The DCCC is pouring in another $400,000 to help out Rob Quist. Quist has a series of personal financial problems and has taken bold progressive stands on a bevy of issues that puts him well out of the mainstream of most Montana voters. You can’t help but wonder what would be happening in this race if the Democrats selected a more electable Democrat to be their candidate in the Special election.

NM-1: Democrat Debra Haaland announced her candidacy for the open seat of Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) who is running for Governor. Haaland is the Chairwoman of the Native American Democratic Caucus of New Mexico and an unsuccessful candidate for Lt. Governor in 2014. If elected, she’d be the first Native American woman elected to Congress.

PA-10: Rep. Tom Marino (R) will not be the next Drug Czar and there will be no special election in this district.

State, Local & Other:

New York City-Mayor: He’s back!!!! Perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente has found himself an apartment in midtown Manhattan to enable his run for Mayor of New York City. The San Diego businessman ran for the Democrat nomination for President and US Senator from Florida last year. This time around he’s running as a Republican. No telling how much of De La Fuente’s personal fortune he will waste on his latest quixotic bid for office.

Omaha-Mayor: The early vote in the Omaha mayoral race is looking fairly good for the Democrats. With over 12,000 now cast (21% of the total votes cast in the April primary) Democrats are 49.3% of the vote, Republicans 40.9%, NonPartisan 9.5% and Libertarians 0.2%. However, don’t write this race off just yet – the total vote in the first round was a 46-42 Dem lead, but State Sen. Heath Mello (D), the only serious Dem, took 41% to mayor Jean Stothert’s 44% and another Republican took almost all the rest.

Political Roundup for April 27, 2017

It’s a Thursday and election day, so as you might guess that means it’s time to go to Tennessee. TN-LD-95 is an R+28 (2012) seat around Collierville in the southeast Memphis suburbs. Seven Republicans are running for this seat: Collierville councilman Billy Patton (R), Germantown councilman Frank Uhlhorn (R), school board member Kevin Vaughan (R), nonprofit exec Missy Marshall (R), salesman Curtis Loynachan (R), and attorneys Joseph Crone (R) and Gail Horner (R). Patton looks like the slight front-runner but any of the others could surprise. The primary winner will be favored over a Some Dude D in the general. Now the rest of the day’s news:

Senate:

AL-Sen: Two staunch social conservatives have joined the race to take on Sen. Luther Strange (R). Most prominent among them is former State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R), who announced yesterday he would enter the race and now looks like the favorite to advance to a runoff with Strange barring the entry of another high-profile candidate. Joining Moore in entering the race in the last few days is gastroenterologist Randy Brinson (R), head of the Christian Coalition of Alabama. State Rep. Ed Henry (R) was already in the race. No Dems have as of yet expressed interest in this seat, but the prospect of facing the polarizing Moore may make the race more enticing.

NV-Sen/Gov: Well, this was unexpected. Steve Cloobeck (D), a wealthy Dem donor who has been widely considered a likely gubernatorial candidate, will endorse Sen. Dean Heller’s (R) bid for re-election. Needless to say, we can cross Cloobeck’s name off the list of Senate candidates, and this might mean he is unlikely to run for Gov as well (at least not if he intends to win a primary.)

More NV-Sen: One person for whom Cloobeck’s endorsement might be unwelcome news is ex-State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D), who just announced she is considering a run against Heller. Marshall lost a 2014 run for SoS to now-SoS Barbara Cegavske (R) in the 2014 wave. While Marshall’s 2014 loss will likely not be held against her by Dems given their wipeout in the state that year, she also underperformed in her 2011 special election run for NV-2. Thus, Marshall is probably not their first choice for arguably their best pickup opportunity; many other Dems are considering but none as of yet seem particularly serious about it.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (D) is considering a run for Governor. Considered a rising star on AL’s very thin Dem bench, Maddox could face State Rep. Craig Ford (D) and ex-State Supreme Court justice Sue Bell Cobb (D) in the primary. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not announced whether she will seek a full term after ascending to the top job a few weeks ago.

More AL-Gov: Former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville (R) will not run for Governor after all. Tuberville was seen as likely to enter the contest before Gov. Robert Bentley (R) resigned and LG Kay Ivey (R) was elevated to the top spot. There is no word as of yet on the plans of the other candidate widely seen as a lock to run, PSC Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh (R). Many other Republicans seem to be waiting out Ivey’s decision.

CO-Gov: Investment Banker Doug Robinson (R), Mitt Romney’s nephew, is running for Governor, and plans to self-fund his bid. Robinson joins Arapahoe DA George Brauchler (R) and self-funding ex-State Rep. Victor Mitchell (R) in the primary. State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R), interestingly a relative of the Bush family, is also considered likely to enter. Democrats will choose between Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D), ex-State Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D), and bold progressive State Sen. Mike Johnston (D).

GA-Gov: State Sen. Hunter Hill (R), who represents a wealthy Atlanta-based seat, is running for Governor, joining two candidates better-known statewide, LG Casey Cagle (R) and SoS Brian Kemp (R), in the primary. Hill seems to be making school choice his signature issue. Ex-Reps. Lynn Westmoreland (R) and Jack Kingston (R) and multiple Dems, including State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D) and Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D), are considering runs.

IL-Gov: Chicago City Treasurer Kurt Summers (D) will not run for Governor, instead endorsing wealthy businessman and 1998 IL-9 candidate JB Pritzker (D) in the race to take on Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). State Sen. Daniel Biss (D), Heir Force Maj. Chris Kennedy (D), local superintendent Bob Daiber (D), and Chicago councilman Ameya Pawar (D) are also in the race.

MD-Gov: Hillary advisor Alec Ross (D) is the first Democrat to announce a run against Gov. Larry Hogan (R). Ross seems very “C” list, but about a half-dozen other Dems of various profile levels are considering runs against the popular Hogan in the very blue state.

OK-Gov: Former US Attorney Gary Richardson (R), who ran for Governor in 2002 as an Indie and likely tilted the race to Brad Henry (D), is running for Governor again in 2018 as a Republican. LG Todd Lamb (R) and State Auditor Gary Jones (R) are also considering the race; Democrats will likely nominate State Rep. Scott Inman (D) over ex-State Sen. and 2014 US Senate nominee Connie Johnson (D).

TN-Gov: Businessman Bill Lee (R) is entering the race for Governor, joining Haslam admin official Randy Boyd (R), another wealthy businessman. Many other Republicans are considering the race, while ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (D) is in the contest on the Dem side.

VA-Gov: Prince William CE Corey Stewart (R) compared workers removing a statue in New Orleans to ISIS last week. What did the statue commemorate? A paramilitary action in 1874 to overthrow the state’s democratically-elected, biracial, Republican government. Stewart is trying to cast himself as the antiestablishment choice in this primary with ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R) and State Sen. Frank Wagner (R).

House:

CA-22: Prosecutor Andrew Janz (D) is running against Rep. Devin Nunes (R) in this R+6 Fresno-area seat (that will likely be more GOP-friendly in a midterm with lower Hispanic turnout). Given Nunes’s newfound high profile Janz could wind up easily becoming a prodigous fundraiser.

GA-6: The GOP SuperPAC Congressional Leadership Fund is dumping another $3.5M into this race, $2.5M on TV and $1M on various ground-game, online, and mail efforts. The race between ex-SoS Karen Handel (R) and congressional staffer Jon Ossoff (D) is on track to be the most expensive House contest ever.

IL-13: State Rep. Carol Ammons (D), a liberal who represents central Champaign, has opened up a committee to explore a run against Rep. Rodney Davis (R). This Champaign/Springfield area seat was drawn to be swingy, but has trended right in the past few years, and Davis has proven a strong incumbent.

IA-3: Sanders campaign staffer Pete D’Allesandro (D) is running against Rep. David Young (R) for this light-red Des Moines area seat. Democrats’ are back to square one in recruitment for this race after businessman and 2016 candidate Mike Sherzan (D) abruptly aborted his campaign a few weeks ago.

MT-AL: In the “disturbing mental images” portion of the roundup, musician Rob Quist (D) apparently was a regular performer at an Idaho nudist resort. Quist even made performances during a time when he said he was unable to work because of gallbladder surgery. Quist is the underdog to 2016 gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte (R) in the special election four weeks from today.

PA-10: Teachers’ Union official Mark McDade (D) is running in the special election for the seat of Rep. Tom Marino (R), who is set to resign to become Drug Czar. McDade is basically a Some Dude, but he has the same last name as ex-Rep. Joe McDade (R), who represented a prior form of this Scranton-area district from 1962 to 1998. Many, many Republicans are considering runs for this deep-red seat.

State & Local:

NYC-Mayor: Councilman Eric Ulrich (R), one of three Republicans on the council and the only one from outside Staten Island, has endorsed in the race for NYC Mayor. But surprisingly, Ulrich isn’t backing either of the main Republican candidates, developer Paul Massey (R) or State Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R). Instead, Ulrich is backing celebrity detective and former Arby’s pitchman Bo Dietl (I), who is attempting to run on the GOP line after an unsuccessful attempt to get traction against Mayor Bill DeBlasio (D) in the Dem primary. As you might expect, getting the support of 3/5 borough chairs needed to run as a non-Republican in the GOP primary will be tough for Dietl.

CT-Treas: If Connecticut’s Democratic Row Officers aren’t considering the Governor’s race, they’re certainly being shoved in that direction by those seeking to climb the ladder behind them. State Rep. William Tong (D) is considering a run for State Treasurer if five-term incumbent Denise Nappier (D) retires or runs for Governor; he joins a fellow legislator openly considering a run for SoS if that incumbent leaves. As of now, Middletown Mayor Dan Drew (D), Gov. Dan Malloy cabinet official Jonathan Harris (D), and prosecutor Chris Mattei (D) are the only Dems in the race.

IN-Supt: The state legislature, after multiple failed attempts, has passed a bill to turn the State Superintendent from an elected to an appointed position; the bill now goes to Gov. Eric Holcomb (R), who is the seventh consecutive governor to advocate the idea. The bill would allow for incumbent Jennifer McCormick (R) to seek one final term in 2020 and transfer the office to appointed status come 2024, when McCormick would have termed out anyway. Republicans’ urgency to support the measure has gone up in the last few years because of prolonged feuding between then-Gov. Mike Pence (R) and then-Superintendent Glenda Ritz (D).

NV-AG: AG Adam Laxalt’s (R) top deputy, ex-State Rep. Wes Duncan (R), will run for his boss’s job if Laxalt does not seek a second term in 2018. Duncan seems to be a strong candidate; an Iraq veteran who won his State House seat in an upset in 2012, he was on the shortlist to be Speaker before his departure to join Laxalt’s office. For his part, Laxalt is widely considered near-certain to run for Governor; Duncan is the first candidate on either side to express interest in the AG seat.

Buffalo-Mayor: County commissioner Betty Jean Grant (D) will run for Mayor. Grant, a liberal with some maverick tendencies, could take black votes away from establishment-liberal incumbent Byron Brown (D), and thus possibly help his main challenger, mavericky City Comptroller Mark Schroeder (D).

NY-Nassau-CE: Ex-State Sen. and 2016 NY-3 nominee Jack Martins (R) will run for Nassau County Executive, hoping to push aside indicted incumbent Ed Mangano (R). Martins is expected to secure the backing of the county machine, but Mangano has not definitively said he will step aside. State Rep. Charles Lavine (D), county commissioner Laura Curran (D), and party-switching county Comptroller George Maragos (D) are in this year’s race on the Dem side.

Political Roundup for April 12th, 2017

First off some bad news: Our polling contractor hasn’t sent us the GA-6 data yet, so it looks like we won’t be releasing the poll until tomorrow. We apologize for the mess – this has been the poll from hell logistics-wise. Please click HERE to donate and help be a part of America’s only volunteer crowd sourced polling effort!

About last night: Looks like all that last minute GOP activity in KS-4 was not a head fake or a waste as Republican Ron Estes pulled off a closer than expected 52% to 45% win last night over Democrat James Thompson in this R+15 district.

President:

CA Presidential Primary: A bill making its was through the legislature in Sacramento could move the Californian presidential primary to March potentially making the largest state in the nation the third state to vote after Iowa and New Hampshire.

Governor:

Governor Approval Ratings: Morning Consult has released their new Governor approval rankings. Republican governors Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland are the nation’s two most popular governors. Baker has a 75% approval rating and Hogan a 73% approval rating. Meanwhile New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the least popular with a 25% approval rating. Of note Florida Governor and potential 2018 Senate candidate Rick Scott (R) is sporting a 57% approval rating.

CT-Gov: Former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker (I/R) filed papers to run for governor as a Republican. Walker was once considered an A-list type of candidate and was even floated as a potential Americans Elect independent presidential candidate in 2012. But for some inexplicable reason Walker decided to run for Lt Governor in 2014 and lost the GOP primary. Walker joins fellow Republicans Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst, and former Coventry Town Councilman Micah Welinktukonis as candidates who have formally filed with the State Elections Enforcement Commission. Unpopular Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy hasn’t decided whether to seek a third term in 2018.

GA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) has filed to run for governor in 2018. Cagle is the presumptive Republican front-runner in what could be a crowded field to succeed a term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R). Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) is already in the race and a cast of current and former lawmakers are considering running as well.

ME-Gov: In an interview with WGAN radio Republican Sen. Susan Collins said she was seriously contemplating a run for governor of Maine in 2018.

SC-Gov: Newly elevated South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) raised over $960,000 in the 1st quarter setting him up for the looming GOP primary battle. Former South Carolina labor and public health chief Catherine Templeton (R) reported last week that she raised $700,000 during the first quarter of 2017 for her gubernatorial run.

VA-Gov: The latest Quinnipiac poll has former Rep. Tom Perriello leading the Democrat primary with 25% to Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s 20% with a whopping 51% are undecided. On the GOP side Ed Gillespie leads with 28%, followed by Prince William County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart at 12%, State Sen. Frank Wagner with 7% and 51% undecided. With this many “undecideds” it is easy to be undecided about the value of this Quinnipiac poll.

Senate:

Senate Approval Ratings: Morning Consult has released their new Senate approval rankings. Of note is the fact that Tammy Baldwin who is up for re-election in 2018 has only a 44% approval rating.

MO-Sen: Rep. Ann Wagner (R) has nearly $2.8 million cash on hand as she contemplates challenging Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).

MT-Sen: Republicans finally get their first candidate to declare but it is not one of the big named hopefuls. Rather state Senator Albert Olszewski (R), who finished in sixth place in the 2012 GOP primary for Lt Governor, announced he would run for senate. The 54-year-old Olszewski is an orthopedic surgeon.

VA-Sen: Quinnipiac polled a potential 2018 general election Senate race and finds incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D) leading a potential matchup with Laura Ingraham (R) 56% to 35% and leading Carly Fiorina 57% to 33%.

House:

CA-50: Retired Navy SEAL Josh Butner becomes the fourth Democrat to enter the race to challenge Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) next year.

CO-6: Denver attorney and veteran Jason Crow (D) announced he will challenge Rep. Mike Coffman in 2018.

GA-6: Political statistician Nate Silver says Democratic congressional candidate and Star Wars aficionado Jon Ossoff was “making sh*t up” about him in his fundraising emails. Ossoff seems to have fabricated a quote from Silver for his email fundraising appeal. I guess when you are in the process of scamming the Democrat base out of upwards of $8.3 million a few white lies here and there can be expected.

More GA-6: The DCCC is making a six figure ad buy on all 7 of Atlanta’s black radio stations as well as associated websites on behalf of Jon Ossoff. The ad urges black voters to turnout and tell Trump that “…racism and intolerance are never OK”. It looks like absentees/in person early votes had a big increase of over 5,000 votes on Monday to 26,717 from 21,111. It looks like Democrat ballots make up a little over 10,000, No Party ballots a little over 9000 and GOP ballots a little under 7500. Now if only someone would poll this race……

MT-AL: Financial deadbeat and Democratic congressional candidate Rob Quist has raised over $1.3 million. This cash infusion should come in handy for Quist since due to his own personal financial problems he is paying himself a salary out of his campaign funds.

NY-19: Livingston Deputy Supervisor Will Yandik announced he will not seek the Democrat nomination for Congress against freshman Rep. John Faso (R). Yandik was defeated in the Democrat primary last year by left wing carpetbagger Law Prof Zephyr Teachout, who in turn lost to Faso.

PA-7: Looks like another bold progressive will try to take a crack at unseating Rep. Pat Meehan (R) in this R+1 suburban Philadelphia district. So called “community advocate” and former board president of the pro-gun control group CeaseFirePA Dan Muroff has announced he will carpetbag into PA-7 and challenge Meehan. In 2o16 Muroff ran for the Democratic nomination PA-2 but came in fourth in the Dem primary, behind eventual winner Dwight Evans, incumbent Rep. Chaka Fatttah, and Brian Gordon. Muroff will face Molly Sheehan in the Democrat primary. Both Democrats currently running for this seat do not live in the district.

PA-10: President Trump has nominated fourth-term Rep. Tom Marino (R), a frequent DEA critic, to head the Office of National Drug Control Policy. This will led to special election in this R+16 seat.

SC-5: The Republican primary in the SC-5 special election seems like a contest between front runners ex-state Rep. Ralph Norman and state state House Speaker Pro Temp Tommy Pope. “Activist” and perennial candidate Sheri Few is trying to gain some traction (and notoriety) in the primary by running ads proclaiming her support for the Confederate flag. Chances are Few will be as unsuccessful in this campaign as she was in her 2014 run for Superintendent of Education and her 2006, 2008 and 2010 runs for a state House seat.

VA-10: Another some dude is looking to challenge Rep. Barbara Comstock (R). 35 year-old U.S. Army veteran Dan Helmer is the latest Democrat to enter this race. Kimberly Adams is also running for the Democrat nomination while State Sen. Jennifer Wexton and Fairfax County Board member Kathy Smith are both considering the race as well.

State, Local & Other:

NY-SD 32: Total whackjob and New York state Sen. Ruben Diaz (D) announced he will run for the New York City Council in 2017. Diaz is socially conservative Pentecostal preacher. His son is Bronx Boro President and his allies control the Bronx County Democrat machine. Diaz should be a heavy favorite to win a council seat which would create a vacancy in the closely divided GOP controlled state Senate.

Brooklyn-DA: The New York Times takes a look at the seven Democrats lining up to run for Kings County District Attorney in 2017. Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson passed away in October after serving in office for three years.

MI-SD 2: State Sen. Bert Johnson (D) was indictment by a federal grand jury Tuesday on charges of hiring a ghost employee on his Senate payroll and stealing more than $23,000 from taxpayers.

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