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Political Roundup for November 10, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: As most people have no doubt heard by now, GOP nominee Roy Moore has been accused in a Washington Post story of having a sexual encounter with a 14-year old girl back in 1979 when Moore was a 32-year old assistant DA in Etowah County. Many, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and NRSC Chairman Sen. Cory Gardner (R) have said Moore needs to drop out of the race if the allegations are true(Moore is denying the allegations). However, it is too late to replace Moore on the ballot. Although, some have pointed out that was what we were told when New Jersey Democrats wanted to replace  scandal-plagued Rep. Robert Torricelli (D) on the ballot for US Senate in 2002 with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), and the state’s Democratic-dominated judiciary essentially looked the other way. But, barring some similar legal maneuver(and getting Moore to agree to drop out, which may be even tougher), Republicans may be stuck with Moore and hoping that voters believe Moore’s denials or look past something that happened nearly 40 years ago(which, this being deep-red Alabama, wouldn’t be a total surprise).

PA-Sen/PA-LG: Businessman Jeff Bartos has dropped out of the US Senate race, and will instead run for LG, working in tandem with the gubernatorial campaign of state Sen. Scott Wagner (R). Bartos’s exit from the race helps Rep. Lou Barletta (R), as he was the strongest opponent still in the race. Barletta now only faces minor opposition in the GOP primary.

House:

HI-1: State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D) became the 2nd person to join this race on Wednesday. She joins state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D), who announced a bid earlier this week. Party-switching state Rep. Beth Fukumoto (R->D) and AG Doug Chin (D) have indicated an interest in running as well.

NV-3: Michelle Mortensen, a consumer reporter for a Las Vegas TV station, is leaving that job to run in the Republican primary for Congress. She joins state Sen. Scott Hammond (R), former state Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman (R) and former Clark County Republican Party chairman Dave McKeon in the Republican primary. Philanthropist and 2016 NV-4 congressional candidate Susie Lee is currently the only Democrat running.

NH-1: Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) has joined the race for this open seat. Pappas was recruited by national Democrats for the seat, and likely starts as the frontrunner. He joins former state AFL-CIO president Mark McKenzie, former Obama Administration Pentagon official Maura Sullivan, former Strafford County District Attorney Lincoln Soldati, and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Mindi Messmer (D) and Somersworth Mayor Dana Hilliard are also considering. State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) and former law enforcement official Eddie Edwards are running on the Republican side, with former NH GOP Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry considering. Trump won this district 48-45 last year.

TX-2: State Rep. Kevin Roberts (R) is the first person to jump into the race for this now-open seat. Roberts is in his first term representing a district in northwest Harris County. TX-2 lies wholly within Harris County, snaking around the northeast, north, northwest and west parts of the county.

TX-21: State Rep. Jason Isaac (R) has announced he is running for Congress. Isaac joins retired CIA operations officer Eric Burkhart as the only candidates to announce a run so far. Isaac doesn’t actually live in the district, but part of his state House district overlaps the congressional district.

VA-6: Two Republicans wasted no time in announcing campaigns in the wake of yesterday’s retirement announcement by Rep. Robert Goodlatte (R). State Del. Ben Cline (R) and attorney and RNC member Cynthia Dunbar have both jumped in the race. Cline has represented a seat in Rockbridge County since 2002 and was re-elected easily on Tuesday. Other Republicans are expected to get in the race. Two potential Democratic candidates have already taken themselves out of the running. Former TV news anchor Chris Hurst had been recruited by national Democrats to run, but he instead ran for the House of Delegates and defeated an incumbent Republican on Tuesday. Del. Sam Rasoul (D), who took 37% against Goodlatte as the Democratic nominee in 2008, the best showing for a Democrat in the district since Goodlatte’s first election in 1992, had been considered a possible candidate, but will not run.

WV-3: WV Republican Party chairman Conrad Lucas, is running for Congress. Lucas joins a Republican primary that includes state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R), state Del. Rupie Phillips (R), and physician Ayne Amjad. Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D), Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, and Tri-State Transit Authority CEO Paul Davis.

Governor/state offices:

CO-Gov: Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) entered the already crowded GOP primary for governor yesterday. She joins 8 other Republicans currently in the race, including Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, investment banker Doug Robinson(nephew of Mitt Romney), and former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), who just joined the race last week. Brauchler, however is now considering dropping out of the race and running for AG(more on that below).

NY-Gov: Little surprise, but after his loss in the Westchester County Executive race on Tuesday, Rob Astorino has announced he will not run for governor next year. Astorino, who was the 2014 Republican nominee, had been talking about making another run.

CO-AG: Now that the Attorney General position is open, Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, is now considering dropping out of the governor’s race and running for AG instead, seeing his possibilities in the governor’s race fading as the race becomes more crowded. One person who will not be running for AG is Rep. Ken Buck (R), who had said earlier in the year that he might run if Coffman didn’t run for re-election. Buck announced on Wednesday that he will instead run for re-election to Congress. Other Republicans who have expressed interest in running include state Rep. Cole Wist (R) and 2014 CO-2 Republican nominee George Leing.

TX-AG: Austin-based attorney Justin Nelson (D) is running for Attorney General. He is the first person to announce a challenge to AG Ken Paxton (R). He is part of a law firm that specializes in high-stakes civil litigation and is also the founder and former president of One Nation One Vote, a nonprofit organization pushing for eliminating the Electoral College and going to a national popular vote.

Political Roundup for September 27th, 2017

About last night: ex-State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) won the AL-Sen runoff, defeating incumbent Luther Strange (R) 56-44. Incumbent Marty Walsh (D) advanced to a general with councilman Tito Jackson (D) in Boston, which Walsh led 66-24, and Democrats picked up a pair of legislative seats in FL-SD-40 (with Annette Taddeo-Goldstein (D) winning by 3%) and a deep-red State House seat in NH. Republicans held FL-LD-116 easily.

Governor:

NJ-Gov: Former Goldman Sachs Master of the Universe Phil Murphy (D) has launched his first TV ad of the general election. After spending more than $20 million to buy win the Democrat nomination, Murphy has put his campaign on autopilot, kept a low profile and went on the public dole by entering the New Jersey Campaign Finance system program that limits donations, curtails spending and allowed him to use taxpayer money to finance his campaign. Murphy’s first ad obviously tries to link Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) to Gov. Chris Christie (R) whose poll numbers are absolutely toxic. The RGA is up with their second 15-second TV ad (See HERE) which hits “really loaded, really liberal” Phil Murphy for not paying his employees the $15 minimum wage he claims to favor.

NV-Gov: Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) has announced 12 “special events” starting on Monday during which he is expected to officially announce his candidacy for Governor. On the Democrat side Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D) has scheduled a “special announcement” for Monday which she will most likely use to announce her run for Governor. Clark County Commission Chair Steve Sisolak (D) and State Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R) have previously announced their candidacies.

VA-Gov: New polls are out in Virginia. PPP has Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie by a very narrow 43% to 40% margin with Libertarian Cliff Hyra at 4% and Not Sure at 13%, a Monmouth poll taken 9/21 to 9/25 has Northam at 49% and Gillespie at 44%, while IMGE Insights has Nothman leading Gillespie 45% to 41%.

Senate:

MS-Sen: State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who nearly toppled Sen. Thad Cochran (R) in a 2014, now has his eye on challenging Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in 2018. McDaniel has been talking with former Trump strategist Steve Bannon and views Roy Moore’s primary win as a call to arms.

PA-Sen: Rep. Mike Kelly (R) who at one time was considering a run for Senate has sent a fundraising letter out on behalf of GOP Senate candidate Rep. Lou Barletta.

TN-Sen: ICYMI Sen. Bob Corker has announced he will not seek re-election in 2018. Please scroll down for our complete coverage of this from yesterday and for my plug for David French to run for Senate!

TX-Sen: Sen. John Cornyn (R) has made it clear he will run for re-election in 2020. H stated that he would stay in the Senate “as long as Texans will have me” which at the rate Texas is turning blue could be a VERY long time.

House:

IN-04: State Sen. John Crane (R) announced he will not run for this open safe R seat of Rep. Todd Rokita is vacating to run for Senate. Steve Braun and Diego Morales are the two leading GOP candidates in this race.

MI-11: RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel (R) has ruled out a run for the open House seat of retiring Rep. Dave Trott (R).

NV-3: Emily’s List has endorsed failed 2016 NV-4 candidate Susie Lee (D) for this open swing seat. The Nevada Democrat establishment seems to be coalescing around the very wealthy Lee while the GOP has a fairly large and wide open field for this seat.

NY-19: And then there were 7! Some dudette Sue Sullivan (D) has dropped out of the race for Congress vs. freshman Rep. John Faso leaving only 7 no name Democrats vying for the right to take on Faso next year.

State, Local & Other:

NY-Nassau County Executive: The Civil Service Employees Association Nassau County has endorsed Republican Jack Martins for county executive. Municipal labor unions usually endorse Democrats but since the Nassau Country Republican machine is all about playing ball they can buy these endorsements away from the Democrats.

NY-Corruption: A three-judge federal-appeals court panel has overturned former New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R) 2015 federal corruption conviction. At issue was the 2016 Supreme Court case that overturned former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell’s corruption conviction. In Skelos’ case prosecutors used the pre-2016 SCOTUS ruling charging standards against Skelos. This was the same issue that lead to the overturning of former New York Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver’s (D) corruption conviction. Federal prosecutors are expected to retry Skelos under the new standard.

VA-Lt Gov: In the race for Lt Governor PPP has a new poll out with Democrat Justin Fairfax leading Republican Jill Vogel 43% to 37% with Not Sure at 21%.

VA-AG: PPP also polled the race for Attorney General and had Democrat Mark Herring leading Republican John Adams 46% to 38% with Not Sure at 16%.

#FakeNews: The Washington Post ran an unbelievably crappy story in which they falsely claimed 17,000 Wisconsinites in two counties didn’t vote in 2016 because of voter ID laws. The state of Wisconsin actually keeps records of how many people show up to vote without an ID. In 2016 less than 600 people came to vote without an ID and every single one of them were allowed to vote if they agreed to sign an affidavit explaining why they couldn’t get ID. But instead of  relying on the actual numbers the state of Wisconsin keeps The Washington Post instead decided to rely on a biased unverifiable targeted survey with 293 self-respondents (out of 2,300 sent) in which they extrapolated their ridiculous figure of 17,000 disenfranchised non-ID voters. The whole thing is complete nonsense and a prime example of how false stories can perpetuate false myths about voter fraud and disenfranchisement that don’t exist.

WATN: Former three time RRHelections Turkey Award Winner Anthony Weiner (D) has been sentenced to 21 months in prison for sexting with a 15 year old girl. We would make more jokes about he “man” most responsible for electing Donald Trump President of the United States but the sick f*** was having cybersex with a kid. May he rot in jail.

Political Roundup for September 22, 2017

Congress:

MI-Sen: Businessman and Iraq War Veteran John James has joined the race for the GOP nomination for US Senate. James, who identifies himself as a “conservative Republican” joins former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Young in the Republican primary. Musician Kid Rock and Sandy Pensler are considering joining the race as well.

MD-6: One Democratic candidate is taking himself out of the race. State House Majority Leader Bill Frick (D), who had been exploring a run for Congress will instead run for Montgomery County Executive. Wealthy businessman and unsuccessful 2016 MD-8 candidate David Trone, Del. Aruna Miller (D), state Sen. Roger Manno (D) and unsuccessful 2006 and 2010 MD-6 nominee Andrew Duck are all still running in the Democratic primary.

MI-11/MI-SOS: State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) is dropping out of the race for Secretary of State. Speculation is that he plans to run for Congress instead to replace Rep. Dave Trott (R), which he called an “unexpected opportunity”. Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R), state Rep. Klint Kesto (R) and businesswoman Lena Epstein are already running for the House seat, and others are considering joining the race. Shelby Township Clerk Stan Grot, Michigan State University professor Joseph Guzman, and businesswoman Mary Trader Lang are running for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State.

PA-11/PA-Sen: Berwick Councilman Andrew Shecktor (R) is dropping a mostly unnoticed campaign for US Senate, and instead running for the House seat Rep. Lou Barletta (R) is giving up to run for US Senate himself. Shecktor was a delegate to the Republican National Convention last year and considers himself a strong supporter of President Trump. Former state Revenue secretary Dan Meuser and state Rep. Steve Bloom (R) are also currently running for the GOP nomination.

Governor:

IA-Gov: Nurse and SEIU local president Cathy Glasson officially entered the Democratic nomination for governor this week. Glasson had been exploring a run for several months. She is establishing herself firmly on the left of the 7 Democratic candidates and has been endorsed by the liberal Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

WI-Gov: State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D) will make an announcement next Monday as to whether she will run for governor or run for re-election. She has given no clues as to which way she is planning to go. If she runs, she would likely join the top tier of candidates along with State School Superintendent Tony Evers, businessman Andy Gronik and state Rep. Dana Wachs.

WY-Gov: Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) has confirmed that she will not run for governor next year. She had once been considered likely to run, and had been lining up supporters earlier this year, but in recent weeks it seemed unlikely she would run, and she apparently told supporters a few weeks ago she was out. Lummis would have been a formidable candidate had she chosen to run, having run statewide before. State Treasurer Mark Gordon (R) and Secretary of State Ed Murray (R) are considered the potential frontrunners, although neither has decided yet to enter the race.

State offices:

AK-LG: Edie Grunwald, the mother of a teenager who was killed in a high-profile murder case, is running for LG as a Republican. She is criticizing a criminal justice overhaul bill approved last year, which was supported by the other 3 Republican candidates-former state Senate Presidents Kevin Meyer (R) and Gary Stevens (R), and former state Rep. Lynn Gattis (R). Grunwald said she was hoping to partner with the gubernatorial campaign of state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R), but Dunleavy recently suspended his campaign.

FL-AG: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) will not run for AG next year, and has endorsed former state Circuit Court judge Ashley Moody (R). Despite Gaetz only being in his first term in Congress, he had been mentioned as a possible candidate, and one who could have been a formidable candidate had he decided to run. Former state Rep. Jay Fant (R) is also running in the Republican primary.

IL-AG: State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D) has announced he is running for Attorney General. He is the second state legislator to announce a run since current AG Lisa Madigan (D) announced her retirement, joining state Rep. Scott Drury (D). Raoul was appointed to the state Senate in 2004, filling the seat vacated by Barack Obama when he was elected to the US Senate. Other Democrats, including state Rep. Elaine Nekritz, are considering getting in. Former Miss America and unsuccessful IL-13 candidate Erika Harold is running on the Republican side.

MI-AG: State Sen. Tonya Schuitmaker (R) is the first Republican to announce a bid for AG. Current AG Bill Schuette (R) is term limited and running for governor. Schuitmaker is term limited out of her state Senate seat as well after serving two terms. Two Democrats are running-former US Attorney Patrick Miles and attorney Dana Nessel.

RI-LG: State Rep. Aaron Regunberg (D) is exploring a run for lieutenant governor. Current LG Dan McKee (D) is planning to run for re-election, which would mean a primary challenge for the incumbent. Regunberg, who is only 27, says he hasn’t made any decisions yet whether to run.

Political Roundup for September 1, 2017

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Rep. Trent Franks (R) has confirmed that he has no interest in running for US Senate next year. In a radio interview he said he just can’t see him running against Sen. Jeff Flake (R) and God himself would have to tell him to do it. However he did not rule out running for the Senate in the future, just that it isn’t the right time at the moment. He did confirm that he, along with State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and former state Republican chairman Robert Graham met with President Trump when he was in Phoenix last week, and said he did not commit to supporting any particular candidate against Flake.

PA-Sen/PA-LG: Real estate executive Jeff Bartos, who has been running for Senate since April, is said to be considering dropping out of the race. Rumors have been going around that he might drop out of the race if a more high-profile candidate entered, and the entry of Rep. Lou Barletta (R) to the race may fit the bill. The same rumors say that if he drops out, he may decide to run for lieutenant governor instead. This week, he defended gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) from charges of anti-Semitism after Wagner made a comment about left-wing billionaire George Soros’ Jewish heritage, which may indicate that he is seeking to be part of a gubernatorial campaign as a running mate. Currently, there are no Republicans who have announced they plan to run for LG.

House:

FL-27: Former Doral Councilwoman Bettina Rodriguez Aguilera has joined the Republican nomination to replace retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R). Rodriguez Aguilera said she voted for Trump, contrasting herself with fellow GOP candidate former Miami-Dade School Board member Raquel Regalado, who did not support him. A 3rd candidate in the primary, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, supported Trump as well. State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) is the most high-profile candidate on the Democratic side, in a district that Democrats should have a good chance at picking up.

NV-3: Insurance agent Jack Love announced yesterday he is running for Congress, becoming the first Democrat to announce a run. State Sen. Scott Hammond (R) and state Rep. Victoria Seaman (R) have both announced runs on the Republican side. Pro golfer Natalie Gulbis (R) is also considering running. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) is leaving the seat after just one term to challenge Sen. Dean Heller (R).

NY-11: Former Rep. Michael Grimm (R) has acknowledged publicly for the first time that he is considering running for his former job. Grimm resigned from Congress at the end of 2014 after his conviction on federal tax fraud charges and served 7 months in prison. Current Rep. Dan Donovan (R) was elected in the ensuing special election and re-elected last year. Grimm criticized Donovan, saying he is “doing a great job as a liberal Democrat” because he opposed President Trump on key issues such as the health care bill. Grimm says he will decide “fairly soon” whether to run.

WA-5: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) has drawn an unusually high profile opponent for 2018. Former state Senate Majority Leader and Washington State University Spokane chancellor Lisa Brown (D) has announced she is running for Congress. Two other candidates, Democrat Matthew Sutherland and Independent Eric Agnew are running in the all-party primary, but McMorris Rodgers and Brown are likely to meet in the general election. Although Brown is a more high-profile candidate than most Democrats who run for the seat, she should still have an uphill battle in a district that went for Trump by 13 points last year and has been Republican since 1994 when then-House Speaker Tom Foley (D) was defeated by Republican George Nethercutt.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is expected to decide in the next few weeks whether to run for governor next year. Sources close to her say she will make an announcement sometime between Labor Day and the Sept.26 runoff for US Senate between Roy Moore and Sen. Luther Strange (R). The possibility of Ivey running already forced one potential opponent, Public Service Commission Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh to run for LG instead, but the 8 other Republicans currently in the race say Ivey’s plans will not affect their plans to run.

CO-Gov: State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) is said to be looking at an early October formal entry into the governor’s race. Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler, businessman Doug Robinson, and former state Rep. Victor Mitchell are already in the GOP primary race and AG Cynthia Coffman is considering joining the race as well.

CT-Gov: State Comptroller Kevin Lembo (D), unexpectedly dropped out of the governor’s race yesterday and announced he would run for re-election to his current post instead. Lembo was expected to be a top-tier candidate and his departure from the race was a surprise to other candidates. Speculation on the Democratic side has now turned to LG Nancy Wyman (D), who has not yet announced her plans. But since Wyman has not yet begun fundraising, some take that and her silence about her plans to mean she isn’t running. Democrats who are still running or considering include Middleton Mayor Dan Drew, Bridgeport Mayor Joseph Ganim and former West Hartford Mayor and state consumer protection commissioner Jonathan Harris.

IL-Gov/IL-LG: State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) has chosen for his running mate Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa. The move indicates Biss is playing to the left in his campaign as Ramirez-Rosa was a Bernie Sanders delegate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention, is part of the council’s Progressive Caucus and recently joined Democratic Socialists for America.

ME-Gov: Ex-Gov. John Baldacci (D) says he may seriously consider running again if he has concerns about the field of candidates running. He says he may run if there is not enough moderation or bipartisanship among the candidates. Baldacci was the predecessor to current Gov. Paul LePage (R) serving from 2003-2011.

NY-Gov: State Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb (R) is considering running for governor next year. He says he has been asked to run by party officials, other elected officials and members of the business community. Kolb has considered running and been asked to run for higher office before, turning down races for Congress in 2010 and 2012 and against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) in 2010. There are several other Republicans considering runs including former state comptroller candidate Harry Wilson, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, 2010 nominee Carl Paladino, 2014 nominee and Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and state Sen. John DeFrancisco. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is expected to run for re-election and any Republican nominee will have an uphill battle.

State & Local:

FL-AG: Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler (D) is considering running for Attorney General. He will be leaving office next March due to term limits, and hasn’t yet decided what to run for next, if anything. But running for Attorney General or the Broward County Commission are said to be two possibilities. Seiler would give Democrats a more high-profile candidate for AG, as currently little-known consumer protection attorney Ryan Torrens is the only Democrat running.

Political Roundup for August 31, 2017

Senate:

PA-Sen: As expected, Rep. Lou Barletta (R) kicked off his campaign against Sen. Bob Casey (D) on Tuesday, giving Republicans an unexpectedly good recruit for this race. HERE is our Great Mentioner for his open PA-11 seat from when the news first broke a few weeks ago.

WI-Sen: State Rep. Dale Kooyenga (R) will not run for the US Senate next year. Veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) is in the race to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), while State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) and 2012 candidate Eric Hovde (R) are considering.

Governor:

AL-Gov, AL-1: Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) will run for a third full term in Congress and will not enter the crowded gubernatorial primary. Byrne has indicated he may reconsider if incumbent Kay Ivey (R) does not seek a full term. Many Republicans are running in this primary.

CA-Gov: Fresh off an easy re-election this spring, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) has refused to rule out a gubernatorial run. Should Garcetti enter, he would join his predecessor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), LG Gavin Newsom (D), Treasurer John Chiang (D), and ex-Superintendent Delaine Eastin (D) on the D side of the top two primary. Self-funding businessman and vanity presidential candidate John Cox (R) and State Rep. Travis Allen (R) are also in the race.

GA-Gov: State Sen. Hunter Hill (R) resigned to focus on his gubernatorial bid this week; Hill’s upscale seat based in Atlanta’s tony Buckhead neighborhood is probably more likely than not to flip to Dems in the upcoming special. Hill is facing LG Casey Cagle (R), SoS Brian Kemp (R), and fellow State Sen. Michael Williams (R) in the GOP primary for this open seat.

KS-Gov: State House Speaker Ron Ryckman (R) will not run for Governor, seeing instead to stay in the House. Gov-designate Jeff Colyer (R) and SoS Kris Kobach (R) headline a crowded GOP primary field here; ex-State Rep. Mark Hutton (R), a moderate, became the latest candidate into the field yesterday.

OH-Gov: Jer-ry! A “friend” says that ex-Cincinnati Mayor Jerry Springer (D) is considering a run for Governor of Ohio. Springer, who has dabbled with several bids for Ohio races before but never pulled the trigger, would join a crowded Dem primary if he enters.

House:

MA-3: Radio DJ Greg Hill (R), who hosts the morning show on Boston’s modern rock station, is considering a run for Rep. Niki Tsongas’s open seat. Hill would give the GOP a credible candidate with name recognition but still face a very uphill battle in the deep-blue district. State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) and former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh CoS Dan Koh (D) are considering the race and many other Dems are thought to be interested.

PA-15: State Rep. Justin Simmons (R) is considering a primary challenge to moderate Rep. Charlie Dent (R). Dent, who is among the caucus’s more moderate members, represents a historically-swingy Lehigh Valley seat that has been gerrymandered to light-to-medium red status with the addition of conservative territory near Harrisburg.

SC-1: State Rep. Katie Arrington (R), a first-term legislator, will challenge Rep. Mark Sanford (R) in the GOP primary. Arrington appears to be promising to be a stronger Trumpist than the Trump skeptic Sanford. She also has some establishment support from her legislative connections, meaning she could be a credible threat to the incumbent.

State & Local:

MI-SoS: Professor and Trump Michigan campaign manager Joseph Guzman (R) has filed to run for the SoS seat. He will face State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) and Shelby Twp. Clerk Stan Grot (R) in the GOP convention. 2010 nominee Jocelyn Benson (D) is considered likely to run again for Dems.

OH-Aud: Ex-Rep. Zack Space (D) kicked off his campaign for State Auditor as expected this week. The race is highly important as the State Auditor (with the Gov and SoS) draws Ohio’s legislative maps. Space, who was swept into a rural red eastern Ohio seat on the 2006 wave and swept out on the 2010 wave, is not expected to face significant primary opposition; he will likely face State Rep. Keith Faber (R) in the general.

NE-SD-16, WATN: 2014 Nebraska gubernatorial nominee Chuck Hassebrook (D) will seek a state legislative seat streatching from the northern suburbs of Omaha to rural northeast Nebraska.

NC-Redistrict: The NC general assembly has quickly passed the new legislative redistricting maps. Overall there isn’t a huge amount of change, but it does make several R-trending rural seats more competitive and several D-trending suburban seats less competitive.

Political Roundup for August 28th, 2017

Our thoughts are with Daniel Surman and his fellow Houstonians. If you’re reading this from southeastern Texas, I hope it helps take your mind off of the rain.

President

Kasichlooper: Say it with me now ‘THIRD PARTIES CAN’T WIN NATIONAL ELECTIONS!’ The one asterisk to that has to do with impending civil war (and we’re not there, at least not yet). Even then, one of the original two parties will just rapidly die, leaving us with two parties once again. The most recent trial balloon making its way around Acela Corridor cocktail parties (and likely funding some consultant’s underling’s delicious and boozy bottomless brunch at El Centro on 14th St) is a possible 2020 ticket of Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). You get two Johns for the price of one, and for once that wasn’t being said to a hooker. Joking aside, this balloon will eventually deflate like all of the others.

Pence: In this piece by Jack Colwell over at Howey Politics Indiana, he points out that the DNC is already talking about Vice President Mike Pence (R) as if he will be running for President… in 2020. I’m not sure if the DNC is just convinced that Trump will retire, or that they’re so deep into their own rhetoric that they’ve already just priced-in his impeachment and removal from office as a given. If it’s the former, I’d be really interested in how they know this. I’m guessing it’s the latter, though.

Congress

AL-Sen: Former Alaska Governor and serial endorser Sarah Palin (R) has endorsed former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R-Jeezus) in his primary runoff against appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R-Trump). The runoff is on September 26th, and can’t be over soon enough.

AZ-Sen?: Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R), fresh off being pardoned by President Trump, may not be done with elective office. The aged transplant from Massachusetts will hold a press conference today announcing his intentions on what to do with the rest of his life. Hopefully it doesn’t include a Senate run, but that’s the speculation at the moment.

PA-Sen:  The Republican primary for this one is heating up early, as Rich Guy Jeff Bartos has released an attack ad against Rep. Lou Barletta (who isn’t even officially in the race yet!). The ad caused a major stir, and Bartos is already facing counterattacks from all sides. Sen. Bob Casey (D) may be the eventual target, but right now, there’s just a lot of elephant-on-elephant violence.

NV-Sen: Apologies for linking to Breitbart twice in one roundup, but this was an exclusive, and an important one at that. JMC Analytics did a poll (it’s unknown who paid for it), and found perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) leading Sen. Dean Heller (R) 39-31 in a hypothetical primary. I’m getting Blanche Lincoln vibes from this one, guys, and I don’t like where that might lead.

Governor

FL-Gov: Here’s a good piece from Florida’s best political reporter, Adam C. Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, on the role that the state’s system of public election finance is playing in the Republican primary for Governor.

PA-Gov: State Sen. Scott Wagner (R) is at it again! Wagner confronted another tracker (this time a Democrat) at the Pittston Tomato Festival near Scranton during a campaign stop for his gubernatorial bid. Personal bellicosity aside, Wagner seems like a good candidate. However, mistakes like this can kill a campaign in a general election. With redistricting around the corner and the Philly machine showing signs of weakening, Republicans need a better frontrunner for the nomination.

NV-Gov: Sometimes the whole ‘I’m not saying whether I’m running, but I’m campaigning anyway’ routine gets a bit old. That’s my opinion, anyway, and it definitely applies to AG Adam Laxalt (R). At a recent lamb-fry that Laxalt holds every year, you could tell that the Basque community already knew that he was running, and it’s a tad annoying. You’re a good candidate. You likely have the nomination locked-up.  Just announce, already!

State/Local

FL-HD-44: In another twist in this hilarious special election for an Orlando-area legislative seat, the underfunded Democrat who won the nomination may have decided to continue after all. To recap, HD-44 is a swingy seat in western Orange County that has a Republican registration edge, but that Hillary won by about 6,000 votes. Three well-funded Republicans fought it out in the primary, while one unheralded and underfunded Democrat won his party’s nomination by default. Democrats thought that they could easily just parachute in a better candidate by pressuring their nominee to withdraw. At first it looked like it worked, but now the candidate is thinking of staying in, almost assuring a Republican victory. Needless to say, there’s a war of words being conducted through the press, and it’s getting nasty.

St. Pete-Mayor: In the most recent poll of the Battle Of The Two Ricks, former Mayor Rick Baker (R) is leading incumbent Mayor Rick Kriseman (D) for the helm of St. Petersburg, FL by 7 points, 47-40. Interestingly, Kriseman seems to be doing very badly among black voters (for a Democrat). He scored an endorsement from former president Obama over the weekend to help with that, but it may be too late. Tampa Bay’s second city will have its Louisiana Rules Top Two primary tomorrow. If no one clears 50%, the general election will be in November.

WATN:  In some very sad news, former Senate and SoS candidate Will Cardon (R) has committed suicide. Cardon was a pillar of the community in Mesa, AZ.

Political Roundup for August 2, 2017

As we enter the third business day of the Kelly led junta bringing something resembling peace and order to the White House, it is time for today’s roundup:

Last Night:

In Seattle, mainstream liberal ex-US Attorney Jenny Durkan (D) took first easily with 32%, while two far-left candidates, urban planner Cary Moon (D) and attorney Nikkita Oliver (ultra-left I) were in a tight race for second, with Moon leading Oliver 16-14. In Tacoma, moderate 2009 candidate Jim Merritt (D) and councilwoman Victoria Woodards (D) advanced with 42 and 36 respectively, with a left-wing candidate taking the rest. led Republicans did better than expected in the legislative races but still seem on course to lose SD-45, with the Dem leading 50-42.

President/National

FBI:  Christopher Wray was confirmed as FBI Director by a 92-5 margin.

Patrick:  Key backers of former President Barack Obama (D) want former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick (D) to run for President in 2020.  Many believe Patrick would spark the excitement that President Obama created again, but it is far from clear that Patrick has any interest in running for President ever.  Patrick has got himself involved in Bain Capital, which means he is raking in cash, but also makes him a target for being an evil capitalist in the anti-capitalistic Democratic primary electorate.

Booker:  Speaking of someone who actually wants to run for President so much, Senator Corey Booker (D-Moderate turned Bold Progressive) introduced legislation legalizing recreational marijuana use nationwide.  As part of his attention grabbing announcement, Booker stated the standard talking points of the legalization movement.  Somewhere Attorney General Sessions was stewing.

Leaks:  Speaking of Attorney General Sessions, the Attorney General is apparently on the cusp of laying the smack down on leaks arising from the White House.  I wish the best of luck to Sessions as the White House resembles a strainer.

Congress

AZ-Sen:  National Journal looks at whether Senator Jeff Flake (R) is engaging in political courage or suicide.  I think it is closer to the latter.

PA-Sen/PA-3:  Representative Mike Kelly (R) will not seek the Republican nomination for US Senate.  Kelly made this announcement one day after news broke of Representative Lou Barletta (R) running for US Senate against incumbent Senator Bobby Casey (D).  Kelly previously ruled out running for Governor.

MN-Sen:  Minnesota Republicans might have found their sacrificial lamb to run against Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota Nice) in State Representative Jim Newberger (R).  Newberger would run on trying to bring a conservative voice for Minnesota in the US Senate.

Healthcare:  Senators Lamar Alexander (R) and Patti Murray (D) are pushing bipartisan hearings to prop-up Obamacare as efforts to repeal the parts that hold up the creaky edifice while keeping the parts that make it fiscally unstable have failed.  I am sure there are Tennessee Republicans cursing Alexander every moment of the day.

States

FL-Gov:  Politico Magazine profiles the king of ambulance chasers and medical marijuana, John Morgan, and his run for Governor.  The piece details how Morgan got involved in Democratic politics and pushing medical marijuana.

More FL-Gov:  It appears the Florida GOP has a substantial money edge over the Florida Democrats, but it is not clear if that will hold if John Morgan (D-Ambulance Chaser For The People) jumps in the race and can throw millions around and have tons of free media through Morgan and Morgan ads.

MD-Gov, PA-Gov: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) helped raise $500K at a fundraiser for State Sen. Scott Wagner (R). Wagner, a vocal Trumpist, is an odd ideological match for the moderate Hogan, but the two are personal friends.

NC-Redistricting: A federal court has ordered the state to redraw its legislative district by September 1. Click for our maps of the Senate and House.

Political Roundup for August 1, 2017

As the Generals have taken control of the White House for now in the name of public safety and the Mooch joins the growing list of people who resigned or were escorted off the premises at  the direction of President Trump, it is time for today’s news.

Check back at Noon Eastern for our preview of today’s Washington State Primaries, including the Seattle Mayor race.

President/National

Scaramucci:  White House Communications Director is not an office many people care about or even knew existed until 11 days ago when President Trump appointed friend Anthony Scaramucci (R/D-Long Island) to be Communications Director, which prompted resignations by Press Secretary Sean Spicer and Chief of Staff Reince Priebus.  Once former General and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly led the generals in taking over this freak show became Chief of Staff, the Mooch was forced out.

Kelly: Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump have given their blessing to General Kelly’s attempt to restore order to the Trump White House.

DNC/Abortion:  In a move that will likely send NARAL and Emily’s List into borderline jihad mode, the DNC will not withhold financing to candidates who at least allege pro-life views.  This came after former DNC Chairman Howard Dean (The only Democrat who knows how to run a 50 state campaign) threatened to withhold funds to the DNC.

Senate:

AZ-Sen:  Senator Jeff Flake wants to alienate everyone.

MT-Sen:  Montana Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) will challenge Senator Jon Tester (D) next year.  Rosendale joins a crowded Republican field, but is now the favorite as being the only statewide candidate seeking the Republican nomination.  Rosendale was elected Auditor last year after serving as State Senate Majority Leader.

PA-Sen/PA-11:  Representative Lou Barletta (R-Trumpland) will run for US Senate against Senator Bobby Casey (D-Faux Pro-Life).  Barletta is probably the best candidate the Republicans could get, but this is still an uphill climb against Casey whose never won a race by less than 8 points.  PA-11 will likely lead to a spirited Republican primary.

ME-Sen/ME-Gov:  Governor Paul LePage (R-Trumpland) rallied fellow Republicans who are attacking Senator Susan Collins (R) for her assistance in torpedoing the various disastrous Republican health care bills.  LePage is term-limited as governor, but is considering a Senate run.  The best case for us would be if LePage and Collins switched offices and acted like they got along, which is probably hard for LePage.

House:

TN-2:  Sixteenth term Representative John Duncan (R) will not seek reelection.  As one of the safest Republican seats in the country (it has not elected a Democrat since before the Buchanan administration), the real action is in the Republican primary with Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett being the early favorite.

OH-16: State Rep. Tom Patton (R), a union-friendly RINO, will run for Rep. Jim Renacci’s (R) open seat. Patton joins Trumpist State Rep. Christina Hagan (R) in the primary.

FL-23:  Representative Ron DeSantis (R) wants to investigate Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Clinton) regarding her employment of a staffer whose accused of submitting fraudulent activities including scamming House of Representatives employees.  DeSantis’ push has the backing of President Trump as evidenced by a tweet alleging the “Fake News” is covering it up.

PA-1/Philadelphia:  The Associated Press looks at why Philadelphia Democratic Party Chairman/Congressman Bob Brady (D-Meehanmander) holds on to power.  While his power is weakening and he is under Federal investigation, Brady still controls a significant portion of the city through one of the last great machines.

PA-6:  Representative Ryan Costello (R) continues to establish a narrative regarding his pathetic leading Democratic opponent, Chrissy Houlahan (D), every chance he gets.  This time his staff is having a great time trolling Emily’s List and Houlahan regarding Houlahan’s unwillingness to take a stand on health care after supposedly supporting single payer until realizing that PA-6 is one of the best insured districts in the country.  Take notes fellow Republicans… push your opponents far left early.

 

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