Browsing Tag

tx-6

Political Roundup for December 5th, 2017

Check back at noon today for our preview and open thread for today’s mayoral election in Atlanta. We will start our liveblog at 7pm eastern.

Governor:

ME-Gov: Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) is considering a run for governor in 2018. Pingree has said she will decide by the end of the month whether to enter the race to succeed term limited Gov. Paul LePage (R).

MD-Gov, MD-LG: Gubernatorial candidate Ben Jealous (D) has picked former Maryland Democrat chair Susan Turnbull as his running mate. Jealous is facing Baltimore CE Kevin Kamenetz (D), Prince George’s CE Rushern Baker (D), State Sen. Rich Maladeno (D), and others in the primary to take on popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R).

OH-Gov: Richard Cordray (D) will announce his candidacy for Governor today in his hometown of Grove City, OH. This comes as a complete shock to us because based on his blatant politicization of the CFPB we had assumed Cordray had been running for governor for some time. Luckily for Cordray the Governor of Ohio doesn’t get to handpick his successor on his last day in office. That is a power Cordray believes should only be saved for unelected directors of powerful and unaccountable bureaucratic federal agencies.

SC-Gov, SC-LG: Businessman John Warren (R) is considering a run for governor. If he runs Warren would be the fifth Republican in the race joining incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster, former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill , Catherine Templeton and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant. Meanwhile, McMaster has chosen upstate Some Dudette businesswoman Pamela Evette (R) as his running mate; the state is switching from separate election to Team Primaries for LG this cycle.

TX-Gov: Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) says she’s still considering a run for governor, but that reports that she has resigned to run for governor are false. With incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) sitting on over $41 million in cash and sporting sky high approval ratings Valdez may want to keep her day job and let Mr. Leather International be the sacrificial lamb instead.

Senate:

AL-Sen: With the Flight 93 election taken to its logical conclusion Roy Moore (R) leads Doug Jones by a 49% to 46% margin with write-in candidate Lee Busby at 5% in the latest Emerson College poll. President Donald J. Trump has gone all in in his support of alleged child molester Roy Moore because in 2017 we are long past the point in which anything matters anymore.

AL-Sen: Debbie Wesson Gibson has shared more evidence of the relationship she had with Roy Moore (R) when she was a 17 year old high school student and he was a 34 year old man. Gibson released a handwritten graduation card from Moore to her and recounted her experiences dating Moore in the early 1980s. After telling Sean Hannity that he remembered Gibson as a “good girl” Moore has backtracked and begun publicly claiming he did “not know any of these women”. It was this lie that prompted Gibson to come forward with more evidence of their relationship. In response to the latest evidence that Roy Moore dated underage girls the Republican National Committee has resumed their support of Moore because nothing matters anymore.

ND-Sen: State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt (R) has decided not to run for Senate. Schmidt was heavily recruited to run by the Club for Growth. They even released poll in September that showed Schmidt leading incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) by a 4 point 48% to 44% margin. Last week Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller (R) also declined to run for Senate. So far state Sen. Tom Campbell is the only Republican in the race but Rep. Kevin Cramer could also switch the the senate race. Former Rep. Rick Berg, who narrowly lost to Heitkamp in 2012, is also considering a run.

NJ-Sen: Former Hillary Clinton campaign staffer Michael Starr Hopkins is exploring a primary challenge to defendant sitting Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez recently escaped justice with a hung jury in his first federal corruption trial. Federal prosecutors plan to re-try him in 2018.

UT-Sen: Donald Trump is reportedly going all out to convince Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) to seek re-election in 2018. Apparently Trumpworld thinks an 83 year old Orrin Hatch would be easier to control than a principled Sen. Mitt Romney (R) unafraid to speak his mind as he does here.

House:

CO-3: Attorney and Glenwood Springs City official Karl Hanlon (D) is in and will take on State Rep. Diane Mitch-Busch (D) in the primary for the right to face Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in this R+6 seat.

HI-1: Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin (D) has entered the race for the open D+17 seat Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) is vacating to run for governor. Martin will join state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim and state Rep. Kaniela Ing in seeking the Democrat nomination.

MA-3: Banker and former Cambodian refugee Bopha Malone (D) is in and now we have 12 Democrats running to replace Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) in this D+9 seat! Luckily for the Democrats Massachusetts doesn’t have California top two style jungle primary so the clown car is unlikely to hurt them all that much.

NC-2: Distillery owner Sam Searcy is dropping out of the Democratic primary for this R+7 seat held by Rep. George Holding (R) and will run for the state Senate instead. The wealthy Searcy has been self funding his campaign. Tech executive Ken Romley and former state Rep. Linda Coleman are both still seeking the Democrat nomination.

TX-6: Tarrant County Assessor Ron Wright (R) has filed to run for the R+9 seat photogenic Rep. Joe Barton (R) is retiring from. Wright once served as Barton’s chief of staff.

TX-21: Bexar GOP chair Robert Stovall has announced he is running to replace retiring Rep. Lamar Smith (R) in this R+10 seat. State Rep. Jason Isaac (R) is so far the only other prominent candidate for the seat.

TX-29: Riceland Health Care CEO Tahir Javed (D) filed papers to run for the D+19 seat of retiring Rep. Gene Green (D). Javed joins state Sen. Sylvia Garcia, Dominique Michelle Garcia, teacher Hector Morales, and attorney Roel Garcia in seeking the Democrat nomination.

PPP-Polling: A new poll from PPP shows Gene Ric (D) leading Republican incumbents in CA-25, IA-1, CO-6, VA-10, ME-2 and NY-24. Now all Democrats need to do is find one person named “Gene Ric” who lives in each of these six districts and convince them to run for Congress.

WATN: Former Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) has been sentenced to five years in prison for funneling money into a sham charity she looted.

RIP: Former Rep. John Anderson has passed away at age 95. Anderson was a Rockefeller Republican from Illinois who served 20 years in the House and ran an Independent campaign for President in 1980 and won just under 7% of the vote.

State, Local & Other:

CT-AG: State Rep. William Tong (D) is exploring a bid for the open Attorney General spot and ex-State Rep. John Shaban (R) is in. Meanwhile, there’s some chatter about changing the 10-year practicing law requirement, which makes it one of the strictest offices in the nation to qualify for.

MN-AG: St. Paul City attorney Samuel Clark (D), a former Klobuchar aide, is considering a run for Attorney General. He would join Dayton admin official Mike Rothman (D), State Rep. Debra Hillstrom (D) and ex-State Rep. Ryan Winkler (D).

NM-Auditor: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) has picked Bernalillo County commissioner and unsuccessful 2017 Albuquerque Mayoral candidate Wayne Johnson (R) to fill the Auditor’s seat for the rest of the term. Tim Keller (D) resigned as Auditor last Thursday after he was elected to become the new Mayor of Albuquerque; State Rep. Bill McCamley (D) is in the race for Dems.

NM-LG: Former independent Albuquerque mayoral candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes has changed her voter registration to Republican and will seek the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor next year. Holmes’ announcement comes after former state Indian Affairs Secretary Kelly Zunie withdrew from the race, leaving the Republican Party without a potential candidate. Zunie had tax and residency problems. Rep. Steve Pearce is the only Republican currently running for governor in the shotgun-wedding primary.

ND-SoS: GOP official Will Gardner (R) is primarying longtime incumbent Alvin Jaeger (R), who has announced he will seek an eighth term.

NV-Treas: Ex-State Rep. Andrew Martin (D), who lost a race for Comptroller in the 2014 wave, is running for the open Treasurer seat; incumbent Dan Schwartz (R) is running for Governor.

OH-Treas: 2006 nominee and ex-Ashtabula County Auditor Sandy O’Brien (R) is running again for Treasure. O’Brien probably doesn’t have much chance against State Rep. Robert Sprague (R) in the primary, as she has lost multiple primaries and only won in ’06 against an incumbent closely tied to the toxic Gov. Taft. Former Cincinnati Mayoral candidate Rob Richardson (D) is the likely D nominee.

MA-State Senate President: Massachusetts Senate President Stan Rosenberg (D) is temporarily stepping down from his position after bombshell sexual misconduct allegations against his husband Bryon Hefner have come to light.

CA-AD 45: Yuck! Assemblyman Matt Dababneh (D) is allegedly one sick SOB!

Atlanta-Mayor: Ahead of today’s mayoral runoff election a new Channel 2 Action News/Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows City Councilwoman has Mary Norwood (I) at 51.3 percent and Councilwoman Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 45.1 percent.

Political Roundup for December 1, 2017

Senate:

UT-Sen: It appears that as much as Utah voters don’t want Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) to run again, they’ll still vote for him as long as they know he is a Republican and his opponent is a Democrat. Polls have shown that more than 3/4ths of Utahns don’t want him to run for an 8th term, and a September poll commissioned by Utahpolicy.com and conducted by Dan Jones & Asssociates caught attention by showing him losing by 11 points to Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson (D). But that poll did not identify the candidates by party affiliation. A new poll that does give the candidates’ party affiliations shows Hatch with a 15 point lead, 50-35% over Wilson. Mitt Romney however does much better in a potential matchup, leading Wilson by 51 points, 72-21%.

WV-Sen: Don Blankenship, former CEO of Massey Energy Co., is running for the Republican nomination for US Senate. His company owned a mine that was involved in a 2010 explosion that killed 29 miners, and he was convicted for conspiracy to violate federal mine laws relating to the explosion, and served a year in prison last year. Blankenship claims that the conviction was political and that he was innocent. He joins AG Patrick Morrisey (R) and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R) in the GOP primary. A big stumbling block to his candidacy is that as part of conviction, he is prohibited from leaving Nevada, where he currently resides until May of next year. The primary will be held on May 8.

House:

Conyers: Although Rep. John Conyers (D) says he won’t resign, there is mounting pressure on him to do so, with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) and Assistant Leader James Clyburn (D) now saying he should resign. One aspect of a possible Conyers resignation is that it would make Rep. Don Young (R) of Alaska the Dean of the House. Young would be the first Republican in nearly 85 years to hold the title-the first since Rep. Gilbert Haugen (R) of Iowa held the title from 1928-1933.

NJ-5: Warren County Freeholder Jason Sarnoski (R) will not run for Congress. Sarnoski had formed an exploratory committee to consider running for the Republican nomination to take on Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D). Two other Republicans are in the race-former Bogota Mayor and unsuccessful gubernatorial and US Senate candidate Steve Longean and former Cresskill Councilman John McCann.

NY-24: After previously ruling out a run, Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D) is reconsidering running against Rep. John Katko (R) next year. Miner, who is leaving office at the end of the year, has been heavily recruited to run. Miner cited Katko’s vote for the GOP’s tax bill as making her reconsider. She has also been considering whether to challenge Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) from the left in next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.

PA-10: Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko (R) is challenging Rep. Tom Marino (R) in next year’s Republican primary. McLinko cited the opioid crisis and the 60 Minutes report that caused Marino to withdraw his name to head the Office of National Drug Control Policy as reasons for running.

PA-11: Mike Marsicano, a former Hazleton mayor who was the 2016 Democratic nominee, will run for this seat again. Marsicano lost to Rep. Lou Barletta (R) by 27 points last year. Barletta is running for US Senate. Marsicano was unopposed for the nomination last year, but will have opposition this time. Former state agriculture secretary Denny Wolff and Air Force veteran Robert Alan Howe are running for the Democratic nomination while Luzerne County Councilman Tim McGinley is also considering running. State Rep. Stephen Bloom (R), former state revenue secretary Dan Meuser, businessman Andrew Lewis and Berwick Councilman Andrew Schecktor are running for the Republican nomination while former deputy state Attorney General Joe Peters is considering running.

TX-6: Rep. Joe Barton (R) announced his retirement yesterday-check our post about it yesterday with a Great Mentioner on who may run to succeed him.

TX-29: State Rep. Carol Alvarado (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for Congress. Alvarado was considered to be a potentially strong contender for the seat. She joins state Rep. Armando Walle (D) as candidates declining bids in recent days. As more potentially strong candidates decide not to run, state Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D) seems to be the clear frontrunner. Reflecting this situation, retiring Rep. Gene Green (D) also endorsed Garcia yesterday.

State offices:

AZ-Treas.: State Senate Majority Leader Kimberly Yee (R) announced on Wednesday she will run for State Treasurer. Yee will face Arizona Corporation Commission chairman Tom Forese in the Republican primary. Current Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R), isn’t running for re-election and has been nominated to a post with NASA. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) will appoint DeWit’s successor.

CO-Treas./CO-Leg.: A Democrat is drafting legislation to expel a fellow Democrat from the state House. State Rep. Matt Gray (D) is planning to submit his proposal to the House when they reconvene in January to expel state Rep. Steve Lebsock (D) after he was accused of sexual harassment by multiple women, including another state representative. Lebsock, who is also running for State Treasurer, has refused calls for him to resign. Expulsion of a member requires a two-thirds vote of the chamber, and has only happened once before in Colorado history.

NM-Aud.: State Auditor Tim Keller (D) has resigned and will be sworn in as mayor of Albuquerque today. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) will appoint Keller’s replacement, likely giving the state another Republican statewide officeholder at least until the end of the term next year. Applications are being accepted through today, but there is no timetable on naming a replacement.

PA-LG: Yet another candidate is getting in the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor. State Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) announced Wednesday that she is running. She is the 4th major Democrat to take on incumbent LG Mike Stack (D). The others are Braddock Mayor John Fetterman (D), Chester County Commissioner Kathy Cozzone (D), and Lancaster County Commissioner Craig Lehman (D).

International:

Australia: The first of two by-elections this month in the House of Representatives will be held this Saturday. The by-elections were scheduled because two members were forced to resign their seats after a High Court ruling that barred people with dual citizenship from serving in the Parliament. This Saturday’s election occurs in the New South Wales seat of New England, where National Party Leader Barnaby Joyce will attempt to regain his seat. Joyce is expected to be returned relatively easily. The elections hold unusual importance as the absence of two Coalition members has left the governing Coalition temporarily without a majority and forces them to rely on confidence and supply agreements with two independents.

TX-6: Rep. Joe Barton (R) will not Seek Re-election

And this year’s pervnado has claimed another member of Congress. Rep. Joe Barton (R) will retire in 2018 after a scandal that, while it did not feature nearly as much moral or legal wrongdoing as his counterparts, was about as embarrassing as they come. In case you’ve been under a rock (or in a Thanksgiving Tryptophan coma) the last week, a nude photo of Barton leaked last week, followed by multiple embarrassing revelations about Barton’s exploits trolling for companionship amid his divorce. The seventeen-term Rep. was disowned by much of the establishment as an embarrassment over the last week and might have faced a tough race for another term; instead, he has decided to become the seventh House member from Texas to retire this cycle.

The decision creates a late scramble for Barton’s TX-6 as the filing deadline is a week from Monday (!). The seat is R+9 and trending left like most suburban Texas seats, though Trump still won it by a healthy if unimpressive 12 points. While the bulk of the land area sits in exurbs and rural areas south and southeast of the Metroplex, the population weight of the seat is around the city of Arlington. The seat covers almost all of Arlington, a largely middle-to-upper-middle-class mega-suburb (with some slumburbish pockets), along with some other middle- and upper-middle-class southern Fort Worth suburbs. Veteran Jake Ellzey (R) has already entered the race and could be a credible contender, but the early front-runner for the seat looks like Tarrant County Assessor Ron Wright (R). Wright has already got a pre-emptive endorsement from State Sen. Konni Burton (R), who represents the bulk of the seat. From the legislature, State Reps. John Wray (R), Byron Cook (R), Matt Kruse (R), Bill Zedler (R), and Tony Tinderholt (R) live in or near the seat. From local office, Arlington Mayor Jeff Williams (R) could also be a serious contender, as could Tarrant County Sheriff Bill Waybourn (R) and Tarrant County commissioner Andy Nguyen (R). Ex-Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) has lived in the seat, but his prior run in 2012 for TX-25 fell very flat.

This seat might be an outside reach target for Dems, but with the filing deadline so close at hand it’s unclear if they can find a credible candidate in time. Democrats’ top recruit here by far would be their lone legislator in the seat, State Rep. Chris Turner (D). Turner, a former congressional staffer, is considered a rising star, but might not want to take a chance on an uphill run.

Political Roundup for November 30th, 2017

Welcome to the roundup y’all.

Senate

AL-Sen: A new JMC poll in the marquee US Senate race in Alabama (who’da thunk we’d say that about a general election in Alabama two months ago?) has Moore (R) leading Jones (D) 48%-43%, which follows a trend in some recent polls of Moore bouncing back a bit from the sting of the initial reveal of his predatory behavior years before.

More AL-Sen: President Trump is considering breaking ranks with Senate Republicans to back a robocall, texting, and email effort (so low cost and marginal, but still) targeting Doug Jones (D) in the Senate race. While I guess this is an attempt to give Trump plausible deniability by not completely putting his name on the effort, his public remarks about Jones and Moore kind of stand for themselves.

AZ-Sen, AZ-Treas: Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R) is being nominated for a position at NASA. DeWit was talked up as a potential challenger to Sen. Jeff Flake (R) when he was still running for reelection, and his name was still floating for the open seat as well. Chem Trail Kelli is already running for Republicans, with Reps. McSally and Salmon the two biggest names tossed around.

Governor

OH-Gov, OH-LG: Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) has pulled a massive coup by forming a gubernatorial ticket with Secretary of State Jon Husted, who looks set to transfer his own campaign (and, perhaps more importantly, 7-figure campaign warchest) into a bid for Lieutenant Governor on DeWine’s ticket.

House

MI-13: Rep. John Conyers apparently plans to announce his resignation in January. We have the Great Mentioner for his successor in this Detroit-based seat in last night’s writeup of the news.

TX-6: Things are looking down for Rep. Joe Barton (R), who is presently holding off on filing for reelection amidst scandal over a nude photo leaking online. Among the folks lining up to call for him to retire are the Chairman of the Tarrant County GOP and The Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The Star-Telegram further reports a recent meeting of 20 local party leaders (mostly women) discussing his potential reelection; Barton said at the meeting he has hired a consulting firm to conduct an internal poll and see where things stand before he decides to retire or not.

PA-1: Rep. Bob Brady (D) may get off on some of his federal charges due to the simple reason that the statute of limitations has run out on many of the alleged crimes. There are still other charges floating around in the ether though, but all things equal, a corrupt pol probably wants to face less corruption charges than more. Take the win while you can Brady!

NH-1: A lot of endorsements from local officials for Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) in his bid for this open congressional seat ahead of his official Dec. 13th kickoff event.

PA-8: Former (Mike) Fitzpatrick staffer Valerie Mihalek is now primarying Rep. (Brian) Fitzpatrick (R), brother of Mike.

NJ-2: The NRCC is still recruiting candidates in one of our toughest attempts at a hold this cycle in NJ-2, where Dems got their ideal recruit for this open seat in State Sen. Jeff Van Drew. Among the politicians the NRCC has met with are Atlantic city Mayor Don Guardian, who won a mayoral term back in 2013 but lost reelection in 2017; former Assemblyman Vincent Polistina; and Hammonton Councilor Mike Torrissi.

State and Local

MN-SD-54: Republicans have a strong candidate for the special election for this Cottage Grove seat in former State Rep. Denny McNamara. This is also a welcome development because it may help keep State Rep. Keith Franke, who was previously considering his own bid, ensconced in his own swing seat as Republicans brace themselves for an impending Democratic wave in the collar counties in 2018. Former State Rep. and Washington County Commissioner Karla Bigham (DFL) is already in the race. The special election here was triggered by State Sen. Dan Schoen (DFL), who just resigned over a number of harassment accusations.

TX-Ag Comm: Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller (R) drew a primary challenge from lobbyist Trey Blocker. Blocker had been rumored to run for awhile, and back in June he loaned himself $750,000 to get the campaign started. Miller has a propensity to draw unforced bad headlines, and this may be the most interesting statewide primary Republicans have in Texas. Not sure if that is a point in favor of a Blocker-Miller race or an indictment of just how sleepy the Texas primaries are statewide this cycle.

NH-Leg: After two rounds of balloting, it seems likely that State Rep. Gene Chandler (R) has defeated more conservative opposition to return to the vacant speaker’s helm in the chaotic New Hampshire House of Representatives. I say “seems likely” because a handful of firebrand legislators submitted blank ballots in an attempt to prolong the vote by denying Chandler his majority. Chandler, who was once censured by the House in his prior tenure as Speaker, won in part thanks to a pledge to only serve out the remainder of Speaker Shawn Jasper’s term in the post.

Atlanta-Mayor: Opinion Savvy has conducted a poll for the local Fox affiliate of the Atlanta mayoral contest that shows a tight race between City Councilors Mary Norwood (I) (39%) and Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) (42%) in the December 5th runoff. Norwood, a white moderate, also just recently picked up the support of former City Council President and third place finisher in the first round Cathy Woolard (D), the only prominent white liberal in the first round.

Political Roundup for November 29, 2017

Last night, the GOP scored its first contested legislative special pickup of the year as Neil Whaley (R) won MS-SD-10. Kevin Ford (R) held MS-LD-54, and businesswoman and 2014 US Senate candidate Nancy Mace (R) won the GOP nomination for SC-LD-99 and will face businesswoman Cindy Boatwright (D) in January.

Governor:

CT-Gov: He’s back! Democrat Ned Lamont is gauging interest in running for Governor next year. Lamont beat Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democrat primary only to lose to Lieberman in the general election. He also lost the 2010 Democrat primary to Gov. Dan Malloy in 2010. Lamont spent over $26 million of his own money on his two unsuccessful campaigns and Lamont still has a lot of money to burn.

IL-Gov: Two top Democratic gubernatorial candidates released tax return information on Monday. Billionaire J.B. Pritzker showed he was a “man of the people” and only earned $14.95 million last year while Kennedy scion Chris Kennedy earned a modest $1.2 million.

MN-Gov: Mayor Giuliani (R) is running for governor! Mayor Mary Giuliani Stephens of Woodbury Minnesota that is. She may not be America’s Mayor but she is a Mayor near the Mall of America. Giuliani-Stephens joins a field of about a dozen candidates looking at running for the GOP nomination.

OH-Gov: The publicity stunt Richard Cordray (D) used to launch his gubernatorial campaign seems to be coming to an end as a federal judge ruled that Mick Mulvaney is the rightful director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The kurtuffle Cordray created should help him raise a ton of online cash from the Democrat #Resistance base across the country and should help him secure the Democrat nomination for governor of Ohio. Hopefully it has also exposed what a constitutionally dubious, politically partisan, fraud of an agency the CFPB is and will help build momentum for dismantling it and the business killing regulations King Cordray was trying to impose on the banking industry.

TX-Gov: Andrew White, son of Mark White, is set to announce his bid for the Democrat nomination for the right to lose to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) next November. The Texas filing deadline in December 11th and so far Mr. Leather International Jeffrey Payne is the only other “major” Democrat running.

Senate: 

AL-Sen: Change Research has new poll showing Roy Moore (R-Gadsden Mall) leading Doug Jones (D-Planned Parenthood) 49% to 44% with 7% of voters saying they plan to cast a write-in vote. Change Research was one of the few pollsters to show Moore leading after the charges against him initially surfaced. The 5 point lead they show now is similar to the 4 point lead they gave Moore on November 11th. Change Research is not included in the RCP polling average which has Jones leading by 0.8%.

AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D) is outspending Roy Moore (R) by a 10-1 margin and is blanketing Alabama with TV ads. Jones’ campaign has spent $5.6 million on television and radio ads during the general election while Roy Moore has only spent about $600,000.

MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren is still pretending to be an Native American by cybersquatting the the domain pocahontas.com

VA-Sen: The Virginia GOP may have found someone to stop the embarrassment that is Corey Stewart from winning the GOP nomination for Senate. State Del. Nick Freitas (R) is about to enter the GOP primary for the right to face Yo soy Sen. Tim Kaine (D) next November. Fretias is an Iraq War combat veteran who was first elected to the Virginia General Assembly in 2015.

House:

AZ-3: Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Raul Grijalva (D)  paid out a $48,395 taxpayer-funded settlement to hush up a top staffer who claimed he was frequently drunk and created a hostile work place environment. Grijalva holds a D+13 district.

CA-48: A plethora of Democrat congressional candidates could create problems for Democrats hoping to take on Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R). So far seven Democrats are running in the top two jungle primary in this R+4 district. One Republican, Stelian Onufrei, is also challenging Rohrabacher and has pledged to spend half a million dollars of his own money in the campaign. Because of the seven way Democrat split it is quite possible for Republican Onufrei to end up in a top two with Rohrabacher.

IL-03: A who’s who of wackjob progressive groups have endorsed Marie Newman (D) in her primary against Rep. Dan Lipinski (D). NARAL Pro-Choice America, MoveOn.org, Human Rights Campaign, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America have joined the Daily Kos in wanting to make an example of Lipinski for his heretical views on the Right to Life. IL-3 is a D+6 district that Hillary Clinton won 55% to 40%.

IL-04: Retiring Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D) has ruled out running for mayor of Chicago or Governor of Puerto Rico and has endorsed Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D) to be his replacement. Gutiérrez said he only retired because Garcia had agreed to run to be his replacement.

MI-13: Another former staffer has come forward and accused Rep. John Conyers (D) of making unwanted sexual advances toward her when she worked for him from 1997 to 2005. As a result of the widening scandal the Congressional Black Caucus is in talks with Conyers (and his keepers) in order to get him to resign.

NJ-2: Damnit! State Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) is running for Congress. Van Drew will formally announce his campaign today for the R+1 seat of retiring Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R). Between Van Drew’s local popularity and the Congressional GOP’s plan to raise taxes on many swing voters in this it could be one of the harder seats for the GOP to hold next year.

TX-5: Retiring Rep. Jeb Hensarling’s (R) former campaign manager Bunni Pounds (R) has filed to run to replace her boss. So far former state Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R) is the only major Republican candidate running in this R+16 seat.

TX-6: File this one under “Just in Case”. With the December 11th Texas filing deadline fast approaching Texas Veterans Commission member Jake Ellzey (R) has filed to run in Republican primary. Rep. Joe Barton (R) has been in an uncomfortable position after pictures of him in an all too comfortable position he sent to an ex-girlfriend were released without his authorization over the internet. Ellzey hasn’t said if he is actually running or not but by filing now he can launch a campaign if things gets worse for Barton or if Barton bows out.

State, Local & Other:

MA-SoS: 33 year old Boston City Councilor Josh Zakim (D) will primary longtime Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin (D) who is seeking his 7th term in office. The Zakim Bridge across the Charles River in Boston is named after Josh Zakim’s father.

Political Roundup for November 27, 2017

I hope that y’all had a fabulous Thanksgiving weekend filled with turkey, football, and as much family as you could stand. Now it’s back to the regular grind of the week, but fear not! RRH Elections is here with the daily dose of electoral happenings that keeps you going!

Coalitions

WWC/Hasids: It seems that many of the 36 towns that voted for both President Donald Trump (R) and Gov.-elect Phil Murphy (D) in New Jersey are havens of the white working and middle classes, especially the former group. However, one municipality stands out. Lakewood, a mostly Jewish town of about 100,000, vote 75-25 Trump, then barely voted for Murphy. The list is intriguing and will brush you up on your Garden State geography, so click through for the full accounting.

Congress

AL-Sen: Like clockwork, we have a story about Democrats’ being worried about black turnout, this time in the Alabama Senate special that has brought us Creepy Roy and the possibility of a raving lefty representing the Heart of Dixie for a few years. I’m not sure what to think of the report, though. Democrats always seem to fret about black turnout in states with large black populations, so I’m not sure if the report actually means much. It could mean that blacks are definitely going to turn out at a low rate, or it could mean that Democrats just suck at divining black voter engagement.

MN-Sen: Since getting embroiled in the current cultural fad of airing long-withheld sexual harassment allegations, Sen. Al Franken (D) has seen his approval rating plummet to 36%, according to SurveyUSA. The poll also finds, though, that 58% of Minnesotans either want him to stay in office, or want to wait for the findings of the Ethics Committee, so it’s not quite as dire for him as it might seem at first.

MS-Sen: Steve Bannon is getting unusually delusional lately, even for him. As if wanting to back selfish-as-can-be State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) next year weren’t bad enough, Bannon has decided that if Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is out of office early, Gov. Phil Bryant (R) should self-appoint. That works out well for almost no one ever, so naturally it’s Bannon’s first option.

MI-13: Rep. John Conyers (D) has been swept up in the sexual assault allegations wave as well. Conyers temporarily stepped down as Ranking Member of the Judiciary committee over the weekend, but there’s even more pressure than there already was for him to resign. Multiple reports over recent years have stated that Conyers isn’t really in a fit mental state due to age and is being propped up by staff who don’t want to look for new jobs. Given that last point and his safer-than-safe district, I wouldn’t be surprised if his staff didn’t end up Weekend at Bernie’s-ing him around the Capitol for a decade after his death, despite the assault allegations. Job-hunting is just so inconvenient, you know?

TX-06: This story has been a strange one. First we found out that there are dick pics of Rep. Joe Barton (R) floating around (ewww), then we found out that he may have been blackmailed, and now we’ve finally, mercifully, moved on to the electoral implications. I actually think he could probably win his seat again without too much trouble, but the good folks over at WaPo seem determined to make it not so. If there’s a resignation and a special election, I assume that Michael Williams (R) would be a possible strong contender, and there are surely others in this Arlington-based district.

Governor

FL-Gov: Well, here’s a fun one. King of the Ambulance Chasers John Morgan at first seemed to be dropping out of the gubernatorial race in the Sunshine State, as had previously been speculated. However, he added a twist to the news when he actually announced that he wouldn’t run for it as a Democrat, but was open to an independent bid. Morgan is very, very rich, to the point that he doesn’t really need a state party’s backing. This would make the race even more interesting than a competitive gubernatorial election in America’s third-largest state already is.

NY-Gov: There is much buzz about Westchester County businessman Harry Wilson’s (R) campaign for Governor against incumbent Mario Cuomo (D). Wilson will need all the help that he can get (including all of the $10 million of his own money that he’s putting up), given New York’s partisan leanings.

State/Local

NV-Leg: It’s as legally complicated as the article makes it sound, but the gist is that Democrats are fighting tooth-and-nail in court to prevent two of their state senators from being recalled in Nevada. Expect this to drag on in court for months. It could even reach the Supreme Court and effect election law for years to come if recalls are struck down as unconstitutional or severely limited by the court.

NY-Leg: Here’s a great rundown of the likely futures of the currently vacant seats in the Empire State’s crime syndicate, I mean legislature. Of special note is the contest to replace now-Westchester CE George Latimer (D).

VA-Leg: A judge has ruled that the certification of election results for two House of Delegates races will not be blocked. A few hundred voters seem to have been given the wrong ballots. If new elections were to be called, they would have to be initiated by the General Assembly, which obviously would prefer not to do so since it’s narrowly Republican-controlled.

WV-Leg: Here’s Hoppy Kercheval speaking out in favor of getting rid of West Virginia’s multi-member House of Delegates districts. I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets done, either, as Democrats have long used them to screw over Republicans, and Republicans are now in charge of the line-drawing.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!