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Political Roundup for November 20th, 2017

Over the weekend, ex-State Rep. John Schroder (R) won LA-Treasurer as expected, councilwoman LaToya Cantrell (D) won New Orleans Mayor, Covington Councilman Mark Wright (R) won LA-LD-77, and ex-federal prosecutor Conor Lamb (D) won the right to take on State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) in PA-18. In Chile, ex-President Sebastian Pinera of the center right will face Senator Alejandro Guillier of the center-left in a December runoff.

Congress

MI-Sen/MI-06: Well, I think that this turned out for the best. Rep. Fred Upton (R) has backed off of his Senate campaign and is running for reelection to his Southwest Michigan congressional seat.  Not having his district open next year can only help House Republicans, and he just wasn’t catching on in the primary for Senate.

MI-Sen Continued: With Upton out of the race, all eyes are now on frontrunner veteran/businessman John James (R). James still has a few notable primary opponents, including ex-State Supreme Court Justice Bob Young (R) and newly-entered businessman Sandy Pensler (R), but he’s polling ahead of them. He’s also African-American, so expect a bit more coverage than your run-of-the-mill Republican Senate candidate would get. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is a tough candidate to beat in any year, so James has his work cut out for him if he makes it out of the primary.

MN-Sen: If this opinion piece is at all representative of progressive opinion on the matter, we won’t be seeing any special Senate election fun in Minnesota. Sen. Al Franken (D) has been caught up in the wave of allegations of sexual misconduct that is currently sweeping the upper echelons of American public society. However, it seems like many are willing to close ranks around him not necessarily because he might be innocent, but because he votes the right way. This woman is just more honest about it than most.

TX-Sen: Some Dude Bruce Jacobson (R) is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the Republican senatorial primary next year. Jacobson doesn’t seem to have much of a platform aside from criticizing gridlock. Jacobson may be a Some Dude, but I expect he might actually might have a bit of funding because he’s a television producer for a Christian outlet.

IL-03: Off the Sidelines, a PAC linked to New York Sen. Kirsten Gellibrand (D) has endorsed Some Dude Marie Newman (D) in her bid to oust Blue Dog Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) in the Democratic primary for his seat, based in Chicago’s southwestern inner suburbs. This has fueled speculation that Gellibrand, who’s been an ideological chameleon since entering elected office, may be trying to burnish her progressive credentials ahead of the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary.

MD-07: This is from Gateway Pundit, so take it with a grain of salt. However, it’s fascinating if true. Rep. Elijah Cummings (D) may have colluded with elements of the IRS to suppress some Republican-friendly outside groups. It’s still early, but Cummings has been contemplating leaving the House in one way or another for a while now. This could be the push that finallyopens up his Baltimore-based seat.

NJ-05: Well-connected lawyer John McCann (R) has joined perennial candidate Steve Lonegan (R) in the race to take on freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D). Trump actually narrowly won this district based in suburban, exurban, and rural North Jersey, so the moderate McCann might have a decent shot even in a good year for Democrats. First, though, he has to get by Lonegan, who rarely wins races, but does have high name recognition.

PA=15: Well, State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie’s (R) life just got a bit easier. Fellow State Rep. Justin Simmons (R), Mackenzie’s biggest stumbling block on the way to winning the Republican primary for this swingy open seat based in the Lehigh Valley, has dropped out of the race. Mackenzie isn’t out of the woods yet, though. He still has, at the least, a tough general election campaign ahead of him.

State/Local

CO-SD-27: In the current wave of sexual harassment allegations, at least a few are likely false or not representative of the person’s general behavior. It seems that this may be the case with the allegations against Colorado State Sen. Jack Tate (R). Multiple women who work alongside him have spoken out in defense of his conduct. It looks like Democrats will have to wait until 2020 if they want to try and take Tate’s Centennial-based seat.

FL-Leg: I think that Ryan may be right in his oft-repeated prediction that the tsunami still has yet to rush in on the sexual misconduct allegation phenomenon. 97% of Florida political insiders surveyed by the Tampa Bay Times seem to agree with both of us. What’s interesting is that it’s so nearly unanimous. They can’t all know about the same single offender. Expect more open legislative seats in next year’s election than are currently forecast.

VA-Leg: Democrats in the Old Dominion are still trying to flip the House of Delegates. They plan to file for recounts in HD-28, HD-40, and HD-94. All three races were extremely narrow Republican victories. If Democrats get one more seat, they can tie the chamber. Two more seats get them the majority. There was an earlier report that hundreds of voters in HD-28 had bee given the wrong ballots, but that appears to have been erroneous.

TX-HD-134: In a move that has surprised many, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) is backing a challenger to a fellow Republican. Susanna Dokupil (R) is challenging State Rep. Sarah Davis (R) for her seat on Houston’s wealthy west side, and has the Governor’s backing in her endeavor. Abbott’s move may have something to do with an ethics reform that Davis proposed that would bar donors to governors from serving on state boards and commissions.

Political Roundup for November 8th, 2017

Remember, remember, the 7th of November…

Last Night’s Results

Democrats did well on a lot of friendly turf last night. In the marquee race of the evening, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) defeated Ed Gillespie (R) by 9 points in VA-Gov. Democrats also appear close to taking the Virginia House of Delegates, with recounts pending and a possible 50-50 split in that chamber that could play a major role in 2021 redistricting control in Virginia. In other races, Phil Murphy (D) easily won NJ-Gov as expected; Provo Mayor John Curtis won the UT-3 special election; Democrats took control of the Washington State Senate through their victory in WA-SD-45; and Democrats won two State House specials, GA-HD-117 and GA-HD-119, in the Athens area of  Georgia.

National

Populist/Nationalist Uprising…or not: The Economist posits that despite conventional wisdom purporting the opposite, political power follows economic power. The magazine explains that the global upper class has been successfully flexing its muscle. As proof, it notes that Brexit has resulted in a wage squeeze due to the Pound’s decline and that the Donald’s “revolution” has resulted in… a tax cut bill that benefits the wealthy.

Hudson Valley Hasids: Mutual contempt between the Hasidic residents of the Hudson Valley and their neighbors is at an all-time high. The Village of Kiryas Joel’s Haredi residents and their longer-tenured neighbors in the Town of Monroe have, for years, experienced severe tensions. These tensions and KJ’s rapid growth catalyzed a vote yesterday on the question of KJ secession from Monroe.

The Irrational Electorate: Harvard economist Edward Glaeser has published groundbreaking work on “the attribution error, or voters’ tendency to believe that politicians have more control than they really do. Of course, we the people would never elect anyone of importance thinking that they could snap their fingers and quickly enact massive, structural changes…

The Year of the Womyn: According to lyin’ NBC News, there were a record number of female candidates on the ballot in Virginia’s elections yesterday.

Redistricting: While no surprise to RRH readers, the elections yesterday mark the beginning of a three-year course of elections that will determine control of 2020’s decennial redistricting process.

Big City Mayors and Millenials: Big city mayors are finding that pocketbook and infrastructure issues, such as affordable housing and good public transit, top the list of millennials’ concerns. While condescending conventional wisdom says that millennials are attracted by “cultural districts” and the like, this new information flips that narrative on its head.

Congress

NJ-02: Twelve-term Congressman Frank LoBiondo (R) is retiring from his purple South Jersey seat. South Jersey Political Boss Tony Soprano George Norcross has promised State Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) his imperative full support in the case of his likely bid.

TX-Sen: What do Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke have in common? No, this isn’t the beginning of a joke: the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the two rivals are both pushing back against those in their respective parties who
oppose NAFTA. Both men wisely cite the tremendous benefits that Texas has reaped from the poorly-understood trade deal.

TX-02: Seven-term Congressman Ted Poe (R) has announced he will not seek re-election to his Houston-area US House district.

The States

CA-Gov: The Los Angeles Times reports that former Congressman Doug Ose (R) is considering a gubernatorial bid.

IL-AG: For AG, the C[r]ook County Democrats have endorsed State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D) over, among others, former Governor Pat Quinn (D).

TX HD-46: In her first press appearance since being acquitted, State Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin) waxed presidential. Dukes alleged that the media and her colleagues had treated her “very unfairly” during her corruption trial. Sad!

Political Roundup for October 26th, 2017

Lots of gubernatorial news in today’s roundup.

Senate

AZ-Sen: Sen. Flake’s retirement yesterday is one of those situations where the incumbent stepping down may actually help Republicans, considering Flake’s eternally soft numbers and more recent loathing by Republican primary voters. Whereas Democrats before would have counted on either a bruised incumbent or far-right primary challenger, now they get to face a fresh face. This news is particularly bad for former State Sen. Kelli Ward, his would-be primary challenger who will now have to face viable conservatives in the primary. See our retirement announcement for a short Great Mentioner. One candidate, Rep. Paul Gosar (R), is already out.

Speaking of Ward, the McConnell-allied Senate Leadership Fund has announced a Counter-Reformation against Steve Bannon’s crusade to purge establishment Senators. They fired their first shots by calling Ward a “conspiracy theorist” and planning to tar Bannon as tied to white nationalists. The group’s social media also recently targeted Danny Tarkanian in NV-Sen, who is primarying vulnerable Sen. Dean Heller (R).

Governor

TX-Gov: Democrats may finally have a viable gubernatorial candidate in the form of Andrew White, son of former (and recently deceased) Governor Mark White (D). White, a Houston investor, called himself a “very conservative Democrat” and opposed bathroom bills in his first comments to media and said he will announce a decision officially in three to four weeks. Some Democrats are also courting Paul Quinn College (in southern Dallas) President Michael Sorrell.

TX-Gov / Leg: A bombshell for Texas politics dropped last night when Speaker Joe Straus (R) announced he would not run for reelection. Straus served as speaker for five terms, tying the record for length of time in that post. While Straus’ San Antonio seat nowadays should stay Republican, the real interest is twofold. First: will Straus choose to primary a statewide incumbent, particularly Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick or Gov. Greg Abbott? While Straus said he is “not one to close doors,” and failed to demur on a gubernatorial bid, he also said he is unlikely to appear on a ballot in 2018. If Straus’ name did appear this cycle, it would open up the chance that next March’s Republican primaries might not be as low turnout as expected. Second, who runs for Speaker? Straus filled a moderate void in Texas politics, and there will surely be more conservative candidates for Speaker than State Reps. Phil King and John Zerwas. Leaving with Straus is the powerful committee chairman Byron Cook, so we may see a flood of conservative legislation pass the 2019 legislative session.

UT-Gov: We have a poll for a 2020 gubernatorial race from Dan Jones with an odd format. They test something like a jungle primary with a bunch of Republicans and a Democratic candidate, presumably to save money on a series of ballot tests between the Democrat and differenet Republicans. Anyway, former Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) leads the pack with 24% over Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D), who recently elected to run against Rep. Mia Love (R) in Ut-4, with 20%; Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox with 11%; and Josh Romney, son of Mitt, at 9%. Chaffetz has said a decision on whether to run is years away for him but called it “a definite maybe.”

MN-Gov: After helming his successful Minnesota campaign last cycle, Sen. Marco Rubio (R) returns the favor by endorsing Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson’s gubernatorial bid. The Republican side of this open seat race is kind of on hold as people wait and watch if Speaker Kurt Daudt or former Gov. Tim Pawlenty toss their hat into the ring. One candidate, former MNGOP Chairman Keith Downey, chose the interesting decision to attack Rubio in response in his continuing efforts to make himself sound Trumpian or something (interesting because Minnesotans picked Rubio and tend to like their politics bland / Minnesota Nice- see Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Rep. Erik Paulsen, and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty for examples).

VA-Gov: In a pretty heated pitch to juice up their base’s turnout, Virginia Democrats’ latest mailer ties Gillespie to Trump and overlays both men’s pictures over a bunch of white nationalists in Charlottesville carrying tiki torches. The message? “Virginia gets to stand up to hate.”

RI-Gov: Former jewelry company CEO Giovanni Feroce is considering a Republican gubernatorial run. Meanwhile, former Cranston Mayor Allen Fung will run for Governor a second time this cycle after losing to Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) by four points in 2014.

State and Local

NC-Leg: State Rep. Bill Brisson of Bladen County switches from the Dems to the Republican Party. Brisson was a DINO but he held a very conservative seat in rural areas south and east of Fayetteville. His decision moves this seat from Tossup or Lean D to Likely or Safe R.

New Orleans-Mayor: After finishing in third place in the first round, Michael Bagneris (D) has endorsed City Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell (D) in the Nov. 18th runoff for New Orleans Mayor over former municipal court judge Desiree Charbonnet (D). Cantrell led the first round despite being outspent and now looks like a fairly strong favorite in the runoff.

Political Roundup for October 25th, 2017

Last night, Tim McGinnis (R) won SC-LD-56 outright, no runoff necessary.

Anyway, as the GOP continues to Flake on reason, I bring you yet more disheartening news.

National/POTUS

Where did the GOP go?: The Economist warns of the rapid deterioration of the GOP’s already tenuous commitment to the tenets of fiscal conservatism. To wit, over the last half-century, Republican administrations have added more to the national debt than have those of Democrats. The problem? Republicans have, over the past four decades, become reliant on the votes of those disinterested in entitlement reform. Why? You guessed it! The GOP continually chases voters who feed on the trough of said entitlements. But, but… *dog whistle about welfare and The Inner Cities*!

Evangelicals: A striking generational divide has emerged among self-described evangelicals. Unsurprisingly, younger evangelicals did not overwhelmingly accept Cheeto Jesus as their lord and savior in 2016. Why? According to The Economist, unlike their Trumpier older counterparts, they have no loss of majority status to lament in an increasingly diverse and secular America. More interestingly, young evangelicals don’t seem as committed to the GOP as their older counterparts. But, of course, there’s nothing to see here…

Democrats: The liberal losers at the failing New York Times are pushing Medicare for all. Oh, wait, no, it actually noted that Bernie(care?) is both bad policy and electoral poison. Yet, as the Times explains, many Democrats are so afraid of the bold progressives that they’re afraid to admit their opposition. Both parties are burning.

Congress

AZ-Sen: One of the good ones, AZ US Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Mesa), has chosen to retire. Instead of becoming “complicit and silent,” Flake says, he will continue to serve as a watchdog to POTUS.

FL-Sen: A University of North Florida poll finds US Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Melbourne) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R-Naples) by a hair, 37-36%.

The States

MO-Sen: Air Claire must be racking up her frequent flyer miles. Senator Claire McCaskill (D-Kirkwood) is raising money from states other than Missouri—58% of her funds so far. It should be noted, however, that it is not unusual for a Senator seeking re-election. Yet, the GOP will take a good sign these days.

CA-Sen: Speaking of US Sen. Bernie Sanders (“I”-Burlington)’ Medicare-for-All plan, the least surprising news ever has broken; State Sen. Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles), currently seeking to remove ‘State’ from his title, has come out in favor of the ponzi-scheme proposal.

WATN: In slightly schocking news, a federal judge threw out two of the twenty-two corruption charges against disgraced ex-boy wonder and US Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Peoria).

The Donald’s Taxes (no, not like that): In news that must be fake, crooked Reuters reports that fewer than one-third of Americans support the President’s rumored tax plan. The poll further found that 63% believe that deficit reduction is more important than tax reform.

IL-Gov: Have you heard the bad news? IL State Rep. Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton) believes that she should primary Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-Winnetka). Ives claims that the Harley-riding governor can’t win.

Illinois’ Broke, Dysfunctional State Government: WMAQ has an excellent primer on the looming series of showdowns between IL Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-Winnetka) and the state’s legislative Madiganicrats. Rauner has, for the first time as governor, declared the state’s budget to be out of balance. The governor’s move sets up a fight over which expenditures should be cut.

GA-LG: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution profiles ex-State Rep. Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming), who is running for Lieutenant Governor on a platform of draining the Atlanta swamp.

WA SD-45: Seattle’s KING-TV reports that the special election to fill the vacancy caused by the death of the late, truly great State Sen. Andy Hill (R-Heaven) has become the most expensive race in Washington State history. The election in the medium-blue Eastside district will determine partisan control of the chamber.

TX HD-46: Travis County prosecutors have dropped all thirteen criminal corruptions charges against State Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin).

Political Roundup for October 12th, 2017

Check back at 3p ET this afternoon for our preview of this weekend’s Louisiana Primaries.

President

Murphy: Alas, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) will go on raising money off gun control and not run for President. Of course this early is like the beginning of a spy movie where you have to trust nobody because the premise sets up people going back on their word.

Senate

CA-Sen: Billionaire environmentalist financier Tom Steyer (D) is looking at a challenge of Sen. Diane Feinstein from the left. California’s top-two primary opens the door to these kind of intra-party challenges destined to take place among a general election electorate. Meanwhile, far-left Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA-13) has declined to run for Senate against Dianne Feinstein, an institution in California politics, despite the urging of fellow Rep. Rho Khanna. State Sen. Kevin de Leon (D) also looks like a no at a campaign against Feinstein from the left. Feinstein has already racked up endorsements from a wide range of Democratic officials since announcing her reelection on Monday, including LA Mayor Eric Garcetti and Sen. Kamala Harris.

AL-Sen: Roy Moore (R) previously said he drew no salary from his work with his charity “The Foundation for Moral Law;” however, he collected over $1 million from the organization over five years. Incredibly, when the organization couldn’t afford the salary they gave him a stake in a historic building they own. The organization also had two of his children on the payroll at one point. Moore faces former US Attorney Doug Jones (D) in this special election.

NJ-Sen: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) may yet squirm out of his dicey legal situation.

Governor

MI-Gov: State Sen. Pat Colbeck (R) has been stripped of all his committee assignments since launching a gubernatorial bid. Apparently the harsh move was in response to Colbeck appearing at a fundraiser in Senate Majority Leader Arian Meekhof’s district without notifying the rival politician. Seems like a minor faux pas compared to the severity of the response. Colbeck is running to the right in this race and will likely be overshadowed in the Republican primary by Attorney General Bill Schuette and the possible bid of Lieutenant Gov. Brian Calley.

TN-Gov: After the House passed her budget bill, Rep. Diane Black (R) can take a victory lap and focus on her gubernatorial bid in this open seat. She is holding onto her committee chairmanship as budget negotiations continue with the Senate.

House

PA-13: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) suddenly became many Republicans’ favorite congressman when he recently opined on the sport of soccer. “Run around for 90 minutes.
Flop when barely touched. Score 1 goal at most. Do I got it?,” Boyle tweeted, adding a winky face before he concluded the diatribe.

MN-8: Rep. Rick Nolan (DFL) is on the receiving end of a primary challenge from FBI counterterrorism analyst Leah Phifer. Phifer doesn’t sound overtly liberal on a lot of issues, but she is on one key issue in the 8th: the Polymet mining project. Nolan is liberal, but even he is not brazen enough to vote that far against his district. Phifer’s take on this issue could drive a nice wedge in the primary, and the race already has Green Skip Sandman returning for a repeat third party campaign to split those votes in the general. St Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber (R) is running on the Republican side in this swingy, Lean D seat. More from Aaron Brown.

NH-1: John DiStaso analyzes the newly open swing seat here, where real political junkies were starved of another Guinta v Shea-Porter matchup. Democrats interested in the seat include: former Somersworth mayor and former Strafford County attorney Lincoln Soldati and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke, Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D), and State Reps. Mark McKenzie (D) and Mindi Messmer (D).

NH-2: State Rep. Steve Negron (R) has picked up some legislative endorsements out of Nashua, which makes it sound like the outcome of his “exploring” this race is pretty likely.

State and Local

MI-Leg: Former State Rep. and felon Brian Banks (D)just resigned his seat last February over his latest charges, so naturally he is now…. running for a promotion to State Senate? Some politicians have some grand audacity.

TX-leg: A few updates.

  • HD-128: State Rep. Briscoe Cain received a boost to his reelection when Black Lives Matter shut down a speech of his at Texas Southern University, giving the conservative facing a Republican primary challenge from Baytown City Councilman Terry Sain a nice bogeyman to campaign against.
  • SD-13: State Sen. Borris Miles(D) survived an armed robbery last night.
  • HD-6: House leadership may have found a candidate to take on Freedom Caucus member Matt Schaefer in former State Rep. Ted Kamel of Tyler.

NH-Leg: Gov. Sununu (R) plans to nominate Speaker Shawn Jasper (R) to be the Commissioner of Agriculture, leaving a gaping hole for House leadership. Jasper would resign once confirmed for the post. Remember, Jasper has dueled a conservative insurgency since usurping his present post, so the move is sure to create a competitive race for a replacement.

Political Roundup for September 19th, 2017

First off, there is a single legislative special primary today. MA-SD-Bristol & Norfolk is a D+5 (2016) seat stretching from Seekonk in suburban Providence to Medfield in Boston’s southwest suburbs. Two Democrats and Four Republicans are running. For Dems, Foxborough councilman and Sanders campaign operative Paul Feeney (D) and legislative staffer Ted Phillips (D) are facing off. Feeney is more of a blue-collar liberal while Phillips is a bit more upscale in sensibilities; there is no clear favorite. For Republicans, Baker admin official Mike Berry (R) has the most GOP establishment support and looks like the front-runner. Berry faces three other credible candidates in Chamber of Commerce official Harry Brousaides (R), legislative staffer Jacob Venura (R), and 2014/16 State House candidate Tim Hempton (R), who could each pull the upset. Waiting in the general is well-known retired TV investigative reporter Joe Shortsleeve (I), a former DINO who could have enough name recognition to make it an authentic three-way race or even pull an upset win.

Senate

AL-Sen: A JMC Analytics poll of likely voters shows Roy Moore keeping his large lead over Attorney General and Trump endorsee Luther Strange 47%-39%. This is actually an improvement for Strange, who trailed in the last JMC poll 51%-32%.

Governor

VA-Gov: Two new polls in the Virginia gubernatorial race. One survey shows Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie 44%-39% with Libertarian Cliff Hyra at 3%. However, the Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll surveys “Virginia adults,” without even a voter screen. Meanwhile, a Suffolk University poll of likely voters shows the race tied between Northam and Gillespie at 42% with Hyra at 3% again. We rate this seat Lean Democrat.

MD-Gov: Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz has joined the Democratic field to take on Gov. Larry Hogan (R). The list of other Democratic candidates, lazily grabbed from the article: “Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP leader Ben Jealous, state Sen. Richard Madaleno, technology entrepreneur and author Alec Ross, lawyer Jim Shea and Krish Vignarajah, a former policy director for first lady Michelle Obama.” We rate this seat Lean Republican.

House

MN-1: 2014 and 2016 Republican nominee Jim Hagedorn won the endorsement of two notable former congressmen: Reps. John Kline and Gil Gutknecht. The endorsements continue a continuous run of former Minnesota Republican officeholders backing Hagedorn this cycle. State Sen. Carla Nelson (R) has also been rumored to be strongly considering a run, and her Facebook page’s name recently changed from “Carla Nelson for State Senate” to just “Carla Nelson.”

UT-3: Dan Jones is re-running their poll of UT-3 mentioned in yesterday’s roundup with a full sample from the district instead of a subset from their statewide poll. The reasoning was complaints from third party candidate Jim Bennett, who barely missed the threshold for debate participation with his 6% showing in the survey.

VA-10: One of Rep. Barbara Comstock’s 1,000 opponents is sticking out. Democrat and veteran Dan Helmer sticks out for a terrible ad where he sings bad karaoke to Comstock about not holding town hall meetings. Pretty sure he won’t be her opponent.

MI-11: A lot of movement in Rep. Dave Trott (R)’s suddenly open seat. First off, State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R). Second, Lena Epstein (R) dropped down from the Senate race to this House bid. State Rep. Klint Kesto also plans to run. The article has a Great Mentioner of other candidates on both sides of the aisle. We previously ranked this seat Lean R when Trott was still in the race. Click here for some of yesterday’s discussion of the candidates on RRH Elections.

NY-24: Syracuse professor Dana Balter (R) is in the race against Rep. John Katko (R). While several other Democrats are considering runs in this swing seat that Katko surprisingly locked down over the last two cycles, Onondaga Community College board chair Anne Messenger is already in.

NY-27: Veteran Erin Cole (D) is out after a short-lived campaign. While Rep. Chris Collins is one of the least threatened Republican congressmen in New York, county Democratic leaders have still interviewed a number of potential candidates.

RIP: Longtime former congressman Bill Goodling (R) of Pennsylvania has passed away at the age of 89.

State and Local

TX-leg: Former State Rep. Steve Toth has the support of 30 former and current Republican State Representatives in his comeback bid. Toth left the chamber after a failed primary challenge to Rep. Kevin Brady, the Ways & Means Committee Chairman in Congress. While Toth would be expected to receive significant Freedom Caucus and allied endorsements, there are a few Straus allies that surprisingly make the list like State Reps. JM Lozano and Jason Isaac.

TX-leg: On the other side of the aisle, State Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D) gains another reprieve as the Travis County DA holds off on felony charges of fraud with new information in the case. She still faces two misdemeanor charges.

International

Spain: Spanish federal government authorities are attempting to stifle campaigning in the Catalonian-led independence referendum on October 1st. Besides seizing campaign materials from the pro-independence side, the government is also threatening to arrest Carles Puigdemont, the regional government head, and other government officials supporting the referendum.

Iceland: Iceland’s Parliament has been set to dissolve October 27th; elections will be held October 28th.

 

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