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Political Roundup for November 9, 2017

Check back at 3pm ET today for our preview of the weekend’s PA-18 convention. Now as I am wondering if we should start treating college and non-college educated whites like they are separate races (at least during the Trump era), it is time for today’s roundup:

President/National

Nuclear Weapons:  Senator Bob Corker (R-Anti-Trump) is going to hold a hearing next week on the President’s authority to use nuclear weapons.   The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will examine the gripping topic of whether Trump can push the metaphorical Big Red Button if a Twitter discussion goes wrong.

Trump/2018:  Republicans continue to face the dilemma of whether to run with or away from President Trump (Himself).  This has been a dilemma since January 2016 and will only get worse.

Biden:  America’s goofy old uncle, former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Old Scranton) is warning us that President Trump’s rhetoric is eating at the fabric of this country.  While Trump is like a flesh eating organism attacking the flesh known as American unity, Biden seems to be missing the body known as America has been weakened before the latest opportunistic organism attacked.

Johnstown:  Politico looks at the most over-analyzed small city in America, Johnstown, Pennsylvania, and sees that MAGA is still alive and well.

Congress/States

Doing Something:  Congressional Republicans are suddenly feeling the pressure to do something after the Volvo/Subaru set decided to start exclusively voting their values after congressional Republicans cannot do anything economically for the upper middle class, who Republican congresscritters only really car about.  The futile efforts will surely involve doing something to further anger such voters.

Suburban Revolt:  Suburbs dominated by college educated whites decided the appropriate response to MAGA and the rise of working class white identity politics was to throw caution to the wind and just vote for people screaming the loudest against the utter reprehensible working class whites they thought had died off until 2016.

More Suburban Revolt:  More on the revolutionary behavior in Volvo/Subaru heavy zip codes in response to Trump.  Republicans did not just underperform their normal metrics in these areas.  Many of them underperformed even Trump.  For the record I am a Subaru driver with my next choice in vehicle being Volvo.

VA-2:  Representative Scott Taylor (R) is on the hot seat since his Virginia Beach area district went for Governor-Elect Ralph Northam (D).  Taylor’s seat has previously been rated on the very fringe of competitiveness.

2018:  Atlantic puts together a decent piece highlight despite the college educated white meltdown, the Democrats have a very narrow margin for winning control of Congress.

International

Saudi Arabia:  Here at RRHElections we cover elections, but in some places, elections are not really how governance shifts from one group to another.  Case in point, Saudi Arabia has been gripped with what some are calling a coup by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (Saudi Arabia Bold Progressive) in the name of modernizing / cracking down on corruption in the Land of 10,000 Princes.

UK:  The government of Prime Minister Theresa May (Conservative) suffered another setback as Foreign Aid Minister and party star Priti Patel resigned due to her having unauthorized meetings with Israeli officials this summer.  This is the second minister to resign from the May Ministry in a week.  This comes at a time when May is struggling through negotiating the Brexit and the fear of going to the polls and getting electorally destroyed by the Trotsky and IRA loving Leader of Her Majesty’s Vanguard of the Proletariat.

Political Roundup for July 26th, 2017

Greetings from Montauk, where the hipster horde has finally largely disappeared into the Atlantic.

Last night’s results:
Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh held NH-SD-16
Republican Stacey Wilkes (R) won MS-LD-108 outright with no runoff
State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz (R) and perennial candidate Annette Taddeo-Goldstein (D) advanced to the general in FL-SD-40
Attorney Daniel Perez (R) will face former Venezuelan legislator Gabriela Mayaudon in FL-LD-116
Spartanburg councilwoman Rosalyn Henderson-Myers (D) and NAACP official Mo Abusaft (D) head to a primary runoff in SC-LD-31

National

Democratic Strategy: Prominent DC Democrats courageously ventured just west of Loudoun County into rural Virginia to roll out their plan to lurch to the left on economic issues ahead of 2018. Democrats hope such a move will provide inroads into the white working class.

Youngstown Rally: Not content to merely rally among boys, 45 held a campaign event among the working men of hardscrabble Youngstown, Ohio.

Congress

Gerrymandering: The Economist introduces Ah-nuld’s crusade against gerrymandering. The governator likens politicians supportive of the practice to “girly men” who refuse to go to the gym.

US-AG/TX-Sen: Amid the rumors of Jeff Sessions’ days being numbered, Senator Green Eggs and Ham Ted Cruz (R) quickly shot down any rumors of accepting an offer to take the post.

Governor

NJ-Lt. Gov: Former Goldman Sachs executive and NJ Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Murphy has named Assemblywoman and former Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D) his lieutenant gubernatorial nominee. Simon adds gender and racial diversity, political experience, and a Trenton Rolodex to the ticket.

VA-Gov: Underscoring the need for a sole signature Democratic victory in the age of Trump, the DNC is sending money to Ralph Northam (D) in the medium blue state. Northam’s coffers drained during a bruising primary against nutroots wet dream Tom Perriello (D).
Local

Allentown-Mayor: Surprise! Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (D) was charged yesterday in federal court in an alleged pay-to-play scheme. Pawlowski dropped out of the 2016 Democratic US Senate primary after federal agents raided his office.

Houston-Mayor: The Texas Supreme Court declined to expedite a case challenging the wording of a 2015 Houston city proposition which changed the term limits of the mayor from three two-year terms to two four-year terms.

Westchester: Westchester County has finally prevailed in a discriminatory zoning witch-hunt lawsuit filed by the Obama administration after HUD conceded the current zoning scheme’s legality. A decision against Westchester could have had political geography effects nationwide.

Places Not Lucky Enough to be America

The UK: Boris Johnson, on a trip to New Zealand, denies any infighting among the Tories.

Political Roundup for June 12th, 2017

Tomorrow is the Virginia primary; we will have a full preview up at 3 ET today. To tide you over, here’s the electoral news that you might have missed this weekend.

Over the weekend, Liberal Independent councilman Ron Nirenberg won the Mayor’s office in San Antonio and ex-State Rep. Dee Margo (R) won the Mayor’s office in El Paso. Puerto Rico voted 97% for statehood with low turnout amid a boycott by anti-statehood parties. The center-right DPK ousted the populist-right DLK in Kosovo, and En Marche remained on course for a large majority in France‘s parliament.

Congress

AL-Sen: Al.com did a nice rundown of the candidates who are seeking to replace AG Jeff Sessions now that he’s been confirmed and has left his Senate seat. The attached bios are interesting and informative. Of course, former state AG Luther Strange (R) has already been appointed to the seat, but he doesn’t lack for primary challengers.

AZ-02: Oh, boy. Someone got hold of a recording of Rep. Martha Mcsally (R) telling a roomful of donors that current polling shows her behind for reelection. now, this could have easily been a worse-case scenario poll and she was just using it to open donors’ wallets. That’s not an uncommon tactic. However, it’s also not uncommon to use a more normal internal poll to do the same thing if that’s what the numbers are showing. I guess we’ll just have to wait for more polls (though public house polls are are about as common as phone booths these days).

CO-02: Well, that was fast. After Rep. Jared Polis (D) announced his campaign for Governor yesterday, former CU Regent Joe Neguse (D) wasted no time in announcing for Pols’ seat in Congress. Negus may be first, but he won’t be last. The Boulder area has a lot of ambitious Democrats, and the chance at a safe seat will be tempting to many of them.

GA-06: It’s kind of a ‘no duh’ thing, but it’s nice to hear confirmation. Anger at President Donald Trump is definitely driving Democratic turnout in the upcoming special election in Atlanta’s northern suburbs. Among several other things, it’s one factor giving the Democrats a decent chance at picking up what is normally a solidly Republican district.

PA-06: Steve Stivers is either being remarkably candid or remarkably devious. He recently told a reporter that the seat currently held by Rep. Ryan Costello (R) was likely a tipping-point seat for the House majority in 2018. Either he really is scared of Costello’s main opponent (Costello won by 14 last time) or he’s trying to con the DCCC into spending more money there.

Governor

FL-Gov: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) is trying, but it just isn’t enough. He’s pointing out that he has the most individual donors of any gubernatorial campaign, by a long shot. That’s great, but in a huge state like Florida, big money and name rec, attributes that his primary opponents former Rep. Gwen Graham (D) and trial lawyer John Morgan (D), are pretty much required to win a competitive statewide race. Gillum is impressive, but he really should have run for a lower statewide office instead of the big job.

IL-Gov: Buried in this article about the continued political impasses and budget woes (or is that budget impasses and political woes?) in the Land of Lincoln is an important observation; next year’s gubernatorial race will surely be the most expensive in state history. Not only will wealthy Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) be spending his own money, but his most likely opponent, rich guy J.B. Pritzker (D), is self-funding as well. Even if Pritzker loses the primary, he’ll likely do so to a Kennedy! Lord knows they have money too.

VA-Gov: A new poll from Change Research brings us some interesting results. It shows former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) leading Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) by 8 points. The lead isn’t surprising, though the margin is. In the Republican primary, it shows Prince William County Executive Corey Stewart leading former Senate candidate Ed Gillespie by a point. That’s a bit of a shocker, given Gillespie’s widely-acknowledged frontrunner status. I guess we’ll find out if the poll is right tomorrow night.

State/Local

FL-CFO: State Sen. Jeremy Ring (D) has had a significant boost in his quest to become the Sunshine State’s Chief Financial Officer. Ring was endorsed over the weekend by the state’s professional firefighters association. This is only for the Democratic primary, though. It will be interesting to see if he can get it in the general, as this is the kind of endorsement that Republicans often snag.

VA-LG: Lt. Gov. hopeful and State Sen. Bryce Reeves (R) is taking some flack for a mailer he sent out about his opposition to a gay judge. This is not a great story for anyone’s campaign, but it should blow over soon. I say that because insiders are pegging fellow contender Jill Vogel (R) as most likely to win the nomination in tomorrow’s primary.

Philly: It looks like the days of the vaunted Philadelphia Democratic Machine (long may it reign) may be numbered. After Larry Krasner (Progressive D) beat machine-approved Democrats in the primary for DA, it’s been found that young voters helped him do it. You might not be surprised by that, but you will be by this; youth turnout tripled it’s normal local primary level. That suggests that the young may turn out more in the future as well. Boss Brady needs to find some way to get them disinterested again or coopts them.

International

UK: With Prime Minister Theresa May looking like a dead woman walking after last week’s embarrassing election results, there’s fresh speculation about who is going to lead the Conservative Party. Early odds point to it being former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (Cosmopolitan Trump), but there are several contenders.

UK Election Liveblog #4

BBC Live BBC Results Page ITV

2:00 ET – There are 7 seats left to declare, but there’s almost certainly going to be a Tory-Unionist coalition government. Only Theresa May herself knows if she’ll be at its head. I’m closing down the liveblog, as this has been a tiring night and I have to travel tomorrow. Night y’all!

1:31 ET – In the newest episode of ‘Every Vote Counts,’ the SNP has held North East Fife against the LibDems by 2(!) votes.

1:11 ET – Smaller Parties Update: It seems that Plaid Cymru has taken Ceredigion from the LibDems, shutting the latter party out of Wales. Meanwhile, the Greens have held their only seat in Brighton Pavilion.

12:35 ET – We’re just waiting for the final batch of seats. There are a few still in doubt, including Kensington (Tory seat where Labour is threatening) and Dumfries and Galloway (SNP seat where the Tories could win).

11:57 ET – Home Secretary Amber Rudd has squeaked by and won reelection. She is one of the leading contenders to replace May if the PM resigns.

11:46 ET – Somewhat lost in the shuffle tonight is that three parties have been eliminated from parliament. The SDLP (nationalist, left-wing, non-abstentionist) lost its 3 seats, and the UUP (unionist) lost its only seat. Both are Northern Irish parties. UKIP lost its only seat as Clacton in Essex went to the Tories.

11:30 ET – We’re getting into that part where a lot of what’s left are safe Tory seats, though that should be slightly less true this time around.

UK Election Liveblog #3

BBC live  BBC results page   ITV

11:30 ET – Please the discussion to the new thread.

11:21 ET – A pattern has now emerged. Labour gains several seats from the Tories in England, the Tories grab one back in Northern England, then take several in Scotland. The result is a net Labour gain, but not a major one. To this point, Labour has taken several more Conservative seats, but the Tories flipped Mansfield in West Yorkshire from them. Now Team Blue has beaten SNP stalwart Alex Salmond in Gordon.

11:05 ET – Three more Scottish results just dropped, and they were all Tory gains from the SNP. The Conservatives have now taken 9 seats from the SNP, which is somewhat making up for losses to Labour in England, though not completely.

10:34 ET – The BBC estimate is now that the Tories will get 318 seats. If that holds, Theresa May will resign and a new Tory leader will likely make a deal with DUP to form a coalition.

10:13 ET – The LibDems have managed to take one seat back in SW England. Bath swung to them massively as they took it from the Tories, likely with Green Labour help. Sour-grapes Remainers are likely to blame.

10:10 ET – Rumors are now flying that Theresa May will resign as PM if the Tories fall short of a majority on their own. Ready the Boris Cam.

10:00 ET – It looks like the LibDems won’t be shut out in England after all. Former Business Minister Vince Cable has retaken his old seat of Twickenham from the Tories in SW London.

9:48 ET – Former LibDem leader, former Deputy Prime Minister, and Liberal stalwart Nick Clegg has lost his seat in Sheffield.

9:45 ET – The way that things are going right now, the Liberal Democrats might be an exclusively Scottish and Welsh party after tonight. They’re gaining in Scotland, but are losing seats in England despite their previously terrible performance in 2015. They thought they’d bounce back, but it’s only happening north of the border right now.

9:33 ET – In a rare Tory gain in England, they’ve taken Southport in the North West from the LibDems.

9:27 ET – Son_of_the_South taking over for now. It looks like a combination of sour-grapes Remainers, increased youth turnout, many Ukippers going back to Labour, and a terrible Tory campaign have likely lost Theresa May her majority (and possibly her job). The only saving grace so far is that the SNP is being smashed on all sides, mostly benefitting the Conservatives. If the Tories can form a government at all, they likely have Ruth Davidson to thank.

9:21 ET– The big loser tonight appears to be the SNP. A second independence referendum appears to be dead.

UK Election Liveblog #2

BBC live  BBC results page   ITV

9:18 ET– Westminster SNP leader Angus Robertson goes down to the Tories in Moray.

9:17 ET– BBC increases projection for Conservative seats from 314 to 322.

9:03 ET– Labour takes Battersea in one of the heaviest Remain areas in the country.

9:00 ET– An indication of the very diverging results from around the country-the Tories hold Warwickshire North with a large swing towards them. Was actually something of a Labour target.

8:58 ET– The Tories take the Scotland seat of Angus from the SNP.

8:50 ET– So far, only a small swing to Labour nationwide. But wide differences in results from different regions make it harder to get a big picture nationally thus far.

8:41 ET– Labour takes back the Welsh seat of Vale of Clwyd they lost to the Tories in 2015.

8:28 ET– Zac Goldsmith(losing Tory candidate for London mayor last year) may win back the seat he lost to the Lib Dems(as an independent) late last year.

8:15 ET– Labour picks up the Scotland seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West from the SNP.

7:53 ET– Labour hold the North East seat of Darlington. The Tories were hoping to pick the seat up if they were headed for a large landslide.

7:37 ET– Tories hold the swing seat of Nuneaton. Big hold and the first real good news for them.

7:20 ET– Rumors are that the Tories may be decimated in London. Labour says they have won Kensington and they may have won Battersea as well.

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