Howdy from chronically underrated Houston, Texas, a culturally vibrant snapshot of the country’s demographically diverse and economically promising future. Speaking of Texas, check back at 3p ET today for our preview of this weekend’s Mayoral Runoffs in San Antonio and El Paso. Anyway, from last night: After winning their respective primaries in the Garden State last night, NJ Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno (R) and former Goldman Sachs executive Phil Murphy (D) will now face off in November. Guadagno’s odds are only slightly greater than were those of fellow Jersey resident Vito Spatafore. In CA-34, State Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) won 60-40 amid low turnout. For the NJ Legislature, all incumbents held on easily and Kristen Corrado’s (R) ticket won in SD-40. One off-the-Line candidate won in LD-1, with Downe Twp. Mayor Robert Campbell (R) beating a candidate who imploded for the second slot.
For an incredible peek at the political future of the red-but-blueing Sunbelt, check out the Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research’s 35th and 36th annual Houston Area Surveys; the Kinder Institute’s polls have long been the most comprehensive non-U.S. Census survey of any American locale. The annual project has not only tracked changes in Greater Houston’s economy and its demographics but also trends in Harris County residents’ opinions on questions of urban development, religion, LGBT issues, abortion, politics, race relations, diversity, immigration, economic policy, criminal justice, and more (and, in the last two years, those of Montgomery and Fort Bend residents as well).
A teaser: Whereas 45% of Harris County residents in 2010-11 agreed that “Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take,” that number had steadily risen to 63% by 2016-17. In the same years, support for the idea that “The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture,” rose from 46% to 65%. Finally, while 55% of Harris County residents in 2010-11 believed that “The U.S. should admit the same number or more legal immigrants in the next ten years as were admitted in the last ten years,” that number grew to 71% in 2016-17. Of interest, these trends have also been broken down by age and race (with white Harris Baby Boomers earning their own section). Similarly, strong growth has been noted in support for LBGT issues and in opposition to the death penalty and mandatory prison sentencing for non-violent drug offenders.
I highly recommend looking through the wealth of public opinion data and trends found in these reports; they likely yield insights not only for understanding political trends in Greater Houston but also those in similarly high-growth Sunbelt metros like the Research Triangle, Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and Nashville. In any case, the national GOP would be wise to take these trends into account when planning to fight the blueing of these metros, many of America’s fastest-growing…
CA-39: Citing Republican incumbent Ed Royce’s vote on Trumpcare, pediatrician Mai Tran (D) is running for Congress in this Clinton-won, diversifying district.
FL-27: State Rep. David Richardson (D), a retired forensic auditor, has become the seventh Democrat to enter the race to replace retiring US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) in her medium-blue Miami-based district. Richardson, who is gay, is well-positioned to receive strong support from the district’s large, prosperous LGBT community.
GA-06: The failing New York Times (Sad!) offers up a summary of last night’s debate between retread Karen Handel (R) and talking points machine Jon Ossoff (D), who is allegedly not a DCCC-programmed hologram.
More GA-06: According to Roll Call, turnout for the June special general election in Georgia’s sixth congressional district is on pace to exceed that of the special primary. With some analyses pointing to general election turnout for Democrats and primary turnout for Republicans in round one, Republicans are likely to paint increased turnout as good news for the Trump-supported Handel, a consistent trailer in public polling.
NY-US House: As RRH regulars know, Governor Andrew Cuomo (
the State GOP’s most powerful supporter D) walks a perilous, Tappan Zee Bridge-length tightrope of beating back New York’s sizable moonbat horde from controlling state politics while simultaneously preparing himself for two elections with drastically different dynamics: his 2018 re-election bid and a 2020 presidential run. Lest local Democrats should worry about the governor’s commitment to his state party’s power in light of the state’s divided government, the ever-bold Cuomo has declared his support for helping Democrats win back… New York’s nine Republican-controlled US House seats. Nice.
VA-02/WATN: Freshman US Rep. Scott Taylor (R) is one of two House Republicans supporting a federal ban on anti-LGBT discrimination. Ex-Rep Randy Forbes (R), a theocrat who ceased payment of his NRCC dues over the committee’s support of gay Republican House candidates, is likely now stewing even more than ever after his 2016 primary loss to Taylor.
Illinois: Yesterday, furthering the circling of the Illinois Democratic establishment around Hyatt Hotels heir J.B. Pritzker (D), the powerful state AFL-CIO officially endorsed his candidacy. Judging by the union’s decision to endorse so early in the cycle, Madiganistan Democrats are pulling out all the stops to convince Heir Force General Chris Kennedy (D) to drop his quest for relevance in Hyannisport.
More Illinois: State Rep. Scott Drury, a North Shore Democrat who courageously cast the lone dissent to
Third World Dictator State House Speaker Mike Madigan’s re-coronation this year, excoriated the IL Dems’ longtime fearless leader as he announced his longshot bid for Illinois’ second most powerful position.
Virginia: In this detailed piece, the New York Times breaks down June 13th’s Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, a contest between
Cruzian reactionary and Lt. Gov Ralph Northam and bold progressive hero and ex-US Rep. Tom Perriello. While the Sandernista Perriello is challenging a consummate insider in one of the country’s most establishment-oriented states, the momentum in the race appears to be his. Yet, despite the anti-establishment fervor stirred up by US Sen. Bernie Sanders (“I”)’s 2016 presidential bid, Northam still appears to narrowly lead with one week left.
Places that wish they were America
United Kingdom: According to this Bloomberg report, Labour officials are privately expecting their party to lose dozens of House of Commons seats in the United Kingdom’s upcoming snap election.