Ossoff leads at 39%; Handel leads crowded race for 2nd spot; Republicans combined narrowly top 50%
Five days ahead of the closely-watched first round of the special election to fill the US House seat formerly held by HHS Secretary Tom Price (R), a new poll from RRH Elections shows Democratic front-runner Jon Ossoff well ahead of the field, leading his nearest challenger 39-15. Overall Ossoff is well short of the 50% mark needed to win outright, though he hits that mark among those who have already voted. Four Republicans, former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), Johns Creek councilman Bob Gray (R), and former State Sens. Dan Moody (R) and Judson Hill (R), are all bunched tightly together in a race to advance with Ossoff, with Handel narrowly leading Gray for the second runoff spot 15-12. The six most prominent Republicans combined lead the two most prominent Democrats combined by a margin of 51-43. The survey of 321 Likely Voters was conducted from April 5-10, 2017 using both an IVR automated phone survey (220 voters) and an online survey (101 voters) and has a margin of error of 5%. All survey design and data analysis is the responsibility of RRH Elections; funding was provided by the generous contributions of our readers and co-sponsorship by Decision Desk HQ. For comments or questions on the poll, please email us at rrhelections@gmail.com
Toplines:
| Candidate | Peformance |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 39% |
| Karen Handel (R) | 15% |
| Bob Gray (R) | 12% |
| Dan Moody (R) | 11% |
| Judson Hill (R) | 10% |
| Ron Slotin (D) | 4% |
| David Abroms (R) | 3% |
| Bruce Levell (R) | 0% |
| Undecided | 6% |
President Trump’s approval rating in the sample is 46%, with 46% disapproving. When asked about which candidate they supported in last year’s presidential election, respondents chose Trump over Clinton 46%-44%, with 4% saying they voted for Gary Johnson and 6% unable to remember their choice.
| Demographic Data | Percentage |
| IVR Polls | 75%* |
| Online Polls | 25%* |
| Already Voted | 28% |
| Likely to Vote | 72% |
| 18-44 | 27% |
| 45-64 | 43% |
| 65+ | 30% |
| Male | 48% |
| Female | 52% |
| White | 81% |
| Black | 13% |
| Other race | 6% |
| Cobb County (27% of district) | 36% |
| DeKalb County (25% of district) | 24% |
| Fulton County (47% of district) | 39% |
*These numbers differ from the raw number of responses due to weighting.
Crosstabs:
| Voting Status | Already Voted (28%) | Yet to Vote (72%) |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 50% | 35% |
| Karen Handel (R) | 13% | 16% |
| Bob Gray (R) | 6% | 15% |
| Dan Moody (R) | 13% | 10% |
| Judson Hill (R) | 7% | 11% |
| Ron Slotin (D) | 6% | 3% |
| David Abroms (R) | 3% | 3% |
| Undecided | 4%* | 7% |
*This paradoxical response is best interpreted as support for minor candidates that were not tested.
| Trump Approval | Approve (46%) | Disapprove (46%) |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 2% | 86% |
| Karen Handel (R) | 24% | 2% |
| Bob Gray (R) | 23% | 3% |
| Dan Moody (R) | 19% | 1% |
| Judson Hill (R) | 21% | 4% |
| Ron Slotin (D) | 4% | 1% |
| David Abroms (R) | 5% | 1% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% |
| Geography | Cobb (53.1/41.9 Trump) | DeKalb (57.0/38.0 HRC) | Fulton (48.4/46.9 Trump) |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 34% | 47% | 39% |
| Karen Handel (R) | 13% | 10% | 19% |
| Bob Gray (R) | 11% | 12% | 14% |
| Dan Moody (R) | 8% | 11% | 14% |
| Judson Hill (R) | 21% | 6% | 2% |
| Ron Slotin (D) | 1% | 5% | 6% |
| David Abroms (R) | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| Undecided | 9% | 9% | 2% |
| Age | 18-44 (27%) | 45-64 (43%) | 65+ (30%) |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 33% | 50% | 30% |
| Karen Handel (R) | 12% | 12% | 20% |
| Bob Gray (R) | 22% | 8% | 10% |
| Dan Moody (R) | 6% | 10% | 16% |
| Judson Hill (R) | 11% | 8% | 12% |
| Ron Slotin (D) | 10% | 2% | 0% |
| David Abroms (R) | 0% | 4% | 5% |
| Undecided | 7% | 5% | 7% |
| Gender | Male (48%) | Female (52%) |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 36% | 45% |
| Karen Handel (R) | 13% | 14% |
| Bob Gray (R) | 13% | 12% |
| Dan Moody (R) | 14% | 8% |
| Judson Hill (R) | 14% | 7% |
| Ron Slotin (D) | 2% | 5% |
| David Abroms (R) | 5% | 2% |
| Undecided | 4% | 7% |
Notes: Racial crosstabs are uninformative. Bruce Levell did not receive support across any breakdown.
Methodology:
The survey was conducted according to the script that follows in the appendix; to make the survey length manageable, only the 8 highest-profile candidates as determined by RRH Elections were tested. Data was collected through two methodologies, with the data then synthesized and weighted by RRH Elections: 220 Interactive Voice Response calls were placed to a list of voters who had participated in two of the last three general elections by PMI inc. of Marianna, Fla., while 101 online surveys were collected using the Google Surveys platform. Because of different weighting, IVR surveys make up 75% of the survey data with online polls comprising 25%. All respondents were asked their likelihood to vote, and those that were unlikely to vote were not included in the survey. Demographic data was collected in different ways between the samples: IVR demographics were asked of the respondents, while online demographics were inferred by Google’s algorithm. Geography was determined by the voter file for IVR responses and by directly asking online respondents for their county. Survey data was weighted by RRH Elections for age and race only. Random deletion was not used as a method of weighting.
Discussion:
With five days until Election Day, the closely-watched race in Georgia’s 6th congressional district looks likely to head to a runoff. Jon Ossoff (D) leads the field by a large margin, but looks likely to fall well short of the 50% needed to flip the formerly Republican-held district outright. Ossoff is at the 50% mark in the early vote, but from the poll the election-day turnout is likely to skew significantly more Republican. The race has become a foci of national attention and a test of Trump’s popularity; the district is incredibly polarized on that front, with Trump’s approval and disapproval exactly evenly matched. Ossoff receives nearly-unanimous support from those who disapprove of President Trump’s performance. If both Ossoff and his Republican rival double-down on a base strategy and make the race a referendum on Trump, the second round will likely be very close, but if one is more successful at garnering even a small amount of crossover support, that candidate could find him or herself with a significant advantage. The race to join Ossoff in the runoff is a crowded one, with four Republicans having a reasonable chance to move on. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) leads by a narrow margin, but all of her three main rivals, Johns Creek councilman Bob Gray (R) and former State Senators Dan Moody (R) and Judson Hill (R) are within the margin of error for second place. Hill is bolstered by strong support and high turnout in his native Cobb, while Handel’s strongest area is her native Fulton County, where she previously served as county board chair. Owing to the district’s Republican heritage, the six Republicans tested post a small 51-43 lead on the two Democrats tested, but it is unclear if that advantage will hold up in a runoff when a large percentage of Republicans will not have voted for the nominee. Overall it seems as though the race will be headed to a June 20 runoff, and if so it seems a safe bet that the next two months will see a hard-fought and nationally-watched race.
About RRH Elections and This Poll:
RRH Elections is run by a team of 8 unpaid hobbyists, all with no connection to any candidate or group active in this race. Funding for this poll comes entirely from the donations of our readers and our co-sponsorship from Decision Desk HQ. If you enjoyed this poll, please donate so that we may bring you more surveys like it in the future. To contact us for comments or questions about this poll, the best way is by email at: rrhelections@gmail.com
Appendix: Poll Script
There is a special congressional election coming up on Tuesday, April 18th. Are you likely to vote in it?
Press 1 if you have already voted
Press 2 if you have not voted yet but are likely to do so
Press 3 if you are unlikely to vote
If the candidates for Congress on April 18th were Republicans David Abroms, Bob Gray, Karen Handel, Judson Hill, Bruce Levell, and Dan Moody, and Democrats Jon Ossoff and Ron Slotin, who would you be most likely to vote for?
Press 1 if you are most likely to vote for Republican David Abroms
Press 2 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Bob Gray
Press 3 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Karen Handel
Press 4 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Judson Hill
Press 5 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Bruce Levell
Press 6 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Dan Moody
Press 7 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff
Press 8 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat Ron Slotin
Press 9 if you are totally undecided
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance as President?
Press 1 if you approve of Donald Trump’s performance
Press 2 if you disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance
Press 3 if you have no opinion of Donald Trump’s performance
As best you can remember, which of the following candidates did you support in the 2016 presidential election?
Press 1 if you supported Republican Donald Trump
Press 2 if you supported Democrat Hillary Clinton
Press 3 if you supported Libertarian Gary Johnson
Press 4 if you supported Green Jill Stein
Press 5 if you do not remember who you supported
For statistical purposes, please let us know your age:
Press 1 if you are 18 to 44
Press 2 if you are 45 to 64
Press 3 if you are 65 plus
For statistical purposes, please let us know your gender:
Press 1 if you are male
Press 2 if you are female
For statistical purposes, please let us know with what race you most identify:
Press 1 if you most identify as White
Press 2 if you most identify as Black
Press 3 if you most identify as Hispanic
Press 4 if you most identify as Asian
Press 5 if you most identify as some other race
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