Michigan State House 2018 Preview (Updated 10-28-18 after fundraising reports)

Michigan State House 2018 Preview

While the R’s have held the state senate since the 1984 recall elections, the state house has flipped at times. It was as follows:

D before 1994 elections

R – 1994-1996 elections

Tied – 1996-1998 elections

R – 1998-2006 elections

D – 2006-2010 elections

R – 2011 to today.

 

Currently R’s have a 63-47 majority. D’s need 56 to gain control. Despite the more narrow majority, the state house is much more conservative than the state senate.

 

I have rated the seats (so far) as follows. I don’t rate anything as “likely.” I have Safe, lean, or tossup. 56 seats control the house. I don’t have the DeVos numbers for some districts as 2006 had old districts and many communities re-precincted. I put many of district that usually are considered “safe” as lean due to 2016 numbers or previous flips in the 06/08 and 2010 waves. 2006 and 2008 are the worse case scenario. If we have THAT bad of year, then any district DeVos or McCain lost could be theoretically “not safe.” If we have a 2010 year or even “area waves” (2014/2016 in SOME parts of the state), then even some  lean D seats can be up for grabs.

MY FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Safe D – Seats 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 21, 22, 23, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 37, 48, 49, 50, 52, 53, 54, 55, 60, 67, 68, 69, 75, 76, 92, 95, 96, 109- 45 total

Lean D – Seats 25, 62 (currently held by R), 110 – 3 total

(48 Safe/Lean D)

Tossup tilt D – 20, 40, 61, 71 – 4 Total

(52 Safe/Lean/Tossup Tilt D)

Tossup Tilt R– 17, 19, 38, 41, 91, 99, 101,  – 7 total

Lean R – 24, 39, 64, 98 104, 108 – 6 Total

Safe R –  30, 32, 33, 36, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 51, 56, 57, 58, 59, 63, 65, 66, 70, 72, 73, 74, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 93, 94, 97, 100, 102, 103, 105, 106, 107 – 45 total

(58 Safe/Lean/Tossup Tilt R)

Gut feeling – 58-52

Worst case I can see – 50-60 (All tossups and HD 104 going to Ds)

Best possible case – 62-48

Note – My original rankings (pre-primary) do not account for candidates/fundraising in most cases. The filing deadline is in April. I also never use “likely D/R” and keep things to safe, lean, or tossup. 

UPDATE 9-25 – I added GONGWER rankings. Gongwer is an organization I respect here in Michigan. I don’t always agree with them, but respect them and rethink my own rankings if there is a disagreement. I also looked at fundraising and things I’ve heard on the ground.

HD-1 – Safe D (70%+) – Covers part of Detroit and all of Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe Shores, and GP Woods. The old HD-1 was winnable until a combination of population shrinkage forcing a district to expand, Harper Woods demographics changing, and GP Park demographics changing. The district was later conceded to VRA.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-2 – Safe D (75%+) – Covers part of Detroit, Grosse Pointe Park, GP, and GP Farms.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-3 – Safe D (95+%) – Covers part of Detroit

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-4 – Safe D (95+%) – Covers part of Detroit and all of Hamtramck

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-5 – Safe D (92+%) – Covers part of Detroit

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-6 – Safe D (90+%) – Covers part of Detroit and all of Ecorse and River Rouge

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-7 – Safe D (97%+) – Covers part of Detroit and all of Highland Park

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-8 – Safe D (95%+) – Covers part of Detroit

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-9 – Safe D (92%+) – Covers part of Detroit

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-10 – Safe D (75%+) – Covers part of Detroit and all of Redford Twp

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-11 – Safe D (65% Jones in2016)

2010 Demographics -67.3% White, 25.1% Black, 69.4% Obama 08

Covers all of Inkster and Garden City, and parts of Dearborn Heights and a very small part of Westland and Livonia

2016 – Trump 34.78%, Hillary 60.64% – Lost by 10,200

2014 – Snyder 36.95%, Schauer 61.05% – lost by 4970

2012 – Romney 29.28%, Obama 69.83% – Lost by 16,750

2006 – Granholm won big

This is the district that takes in a bunch of Wayne County areas that don’t fit anywhere else. Garden City and Inkster base the district, but it can only take partial communities elsewhere. Livonia is too large to fit into only one district. Westland can do it, but then there’s Wayne too.

Everything except the small swingish Livonia portion of the district is Safe D. Trump won Garden City, but that’s an aberration in this heavily union suburb.  Dearborn Heights is less D in off years, and that’s due to foreign policy issues with the Arabic population there (25%, higher in the north end, more of which is in this district). A lot of the white population in DH is union, and there’s blacks moving into the NE section near the Detroit border. Westland has been D leaning since at least the early 90’s if not earlier. Trump and Snyder came within 7% of winning the portion of Westland in the district. Romney lost it by double digits. Trump and Snyder won the portion of Livonia. Romney lost that too.

The big reason why this is safe D is Inkster. Inkster is black majority and 90-94% D city. It’s 20-25% of the vote and delivers a 7900-10000 vote spread in presidential years and 5200 vote spread in gubernatorial years.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-12 – Safe D (67.11% Geiss in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 66.3% White, 24.3% Black, 68.5% Obama 08

Covers all of Romulus and Taylor, and part of Van Buren Twp.

2016 – Trump 38.88%, Hillary 56.94% – lost by 7100

2014 – Snyder 35.42%, Schauer 62.02% – Lost by 6300

2012 – Romney 29.40%, Obama 69.71% – lost by 15,700

2006 – DeVos 31.58%, Granholm 66.79% – Lost by 9500 – Does not include Van Buren Twp, so numbers probably 2-3% worse.

This district covers most of the airport area. When people fly into Detroit Metro airport, they are flying into Romulus. Between the government unions and UAW auto workers, this is a major union D area. In addition, Romulus is possibly majority-minority by this point. The part of Van Buren Twp that is in the district probably is minority majority. Taylor is 15% black and increasing. As such, this district is likely to get even bluer over time, which makes Trump’s nearly 39% quite respectable. Trump narrowly lost Taylor. His almost 28% in Romulus was also respectable compared to the low 20’s of Romney, Snyder, and DeVos.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-13 – Safe D (60.76% for Liberati in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 85.5% White, 6.7% Latino, 58.5% Obama 08

Covers Allen Park, Southgate, and part of Dearborn Heights.

2016 – Trump 46.68%, Hillary 47.94%, lost by 531

2014 – Snyder 47.64%, Schauer 49.88%, lost by 506

2012 – Romney 40.26%, Obama 58.70%, lost by 7800

2006 – Granholm won big

Despite the close calls at the top of the ticket the last two elections. I have to put this as safe until proven otherwise, although there’s usually one or two close calls nobody expects. Last year, the 50th and the 17th were close (with the 17th flipping).  Dearborn Heights didn’t budge much with Trump due probably mostly to Arabic Muslims (a lot of Middle Eastern Christians – both Arabs and non-Arabs moved away from the Dearborn area to Oakland and Macomb Counties).  Southgate is the downriver firewall for the D’s. It’s usually 60% D. Snyder held the D’s to 54% there and Trump held Hillary under 50%. Allen Park is lean D, although Snyder and Trump both won it. Romney lost it bad. Allen Park is part of Ford Motor Company HQ along with Dearborn.  This is Ford country.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-14 – Safe D (59.44% for Clemente in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 81.7% White, 10.8% Latino, 63.6% Obama 08

Covers Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, and Wyandotte

2016 – Trump 44.26%, Hillary 50.51%, lost by 2290

2014 – Snyder 42.07%, Schauer 54.99%, lost by 2800

2012 – Romney 34.90%, Obama 63.97%, lost by 10,500

2006 – DeVos 35.95%, Granholm 62.22%, lost by 7700

This district has been in the Clemente family for ages. Paul, Ed, and now Cara. If Trump couldn’t win this district, I don’t see too many R’s who can. Trump winning normally safe D Wyandotte in itself is shocking. Riverview is winnable, but still a lean D city. Lincoln Park and Melvindale was and is still safe D and carries the district for D’s in this district. Trump got over 41% in Lincoln Park. That’s considered good.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-15 – Safe D (61.77% for Hammoud in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 86.6% White (including Arabs), 64.3% Obama 08

Covers almost all of Dearborn

Approx numbers (all of Dearborn)

2016 – Trump 31.02%, Hillary 63.57%, lost by 12,800

2014 – Snyder 45.32%, Schauer 52.48%, lost by 1800

2012 – Romney 32.30%, Obama 66.64%, lost by 13500

2006 – DeVos 37.02%, Granholm 61.19%, lost by 7400

The district numbers are slightly better than the city as a whole, but not enough to impact the state rep race. Dearborn always leaned D with unions, but was competitive at times until the Iraq War. Bush actually won it in 2000. While despite the news reports, it’s not Muslim Majority, it is about 40% Arabic (including both Christians and Muslims). It’s not a terrorist haven despite what you read on the internet. That said, most Muslims don’t like Republicans right now…and vice versa.  This seat is going to be D for the foreseeable future. R’s do much better in off years for the most part.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-16 – Safe D (63.97% for Kosowski in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 72.7% White, 17.9% Black, 65.4% Obama 08

Covers Wayne and most of Westland

2016 – Trump 38.70%, Hillary 56.04%, lost by 7000

2014 – Snyder 39.63%, Schauer 57.98%, lost by 4400

2012 – Romney 33.26%, Obama 65.88%, lost by 13,000

Wayne/Westland area has a long history of electing moderate union democrats due to it being  the home of a major auto factory (Ford plant in Wayne) as well as Metro Airport being nearby. While Trump made a lot of inroads here compared to Romney, the minority population is high enough to keep Trump from winning.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-17 – Tossup (52.23% for Bellino) (Tilt R)

2010 Demographics – 89.1% White, 55% Obama

Covers Sumpter Twp, Flat Rock, and Rockwood in Wayne County. Covers Ash, Berlin, Exeter,  Frenchtown, and London Townships in Monroe County as well as the City of Monroe and a very small part of Monroe Twp (not in the vote totals)

2016 – Trump 56.33%, Hillary 38.41%, won by 7300

2014 – Snyder 48.10%, Schauer 49.17%, lost by 275

2012 – Romney 45.26%, Obama 53.65%, lost by 3250

2006 – DeVos 41.04%, Granholm 57.49%, lost by 5200

This district was created to be union D-leaning in an attempt to protect the neighboring 23rd and 56th districts by taking Sumpter Twp out of the 23rd, and putting it with D leaning City of Monroe and Frenchtown Twp. The 23rd still flipped in 2016 as an open seat, but in a twist, the 17th flipped to the R’s. R’s held the 56th. Trump did very well here.

Joseph Bellino had to work extremely hard to win, and win over an incumbent. For that reason alone, I can’t call this district lean D. Bellino won the City of Monroe and Frenchtown Twp by a decent margin, and that’s usually moderate D territory.  Monroe County and Far Downriver have a social moderate and populist union D tradition. Today it is a very independent area.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

UPDATE Fundraising

Updated Analysis – I’m hearing good things about this district. I think D’s blundered by running Bill LaVoy for State Senate and Michelle LaVoy for State House as that hurts both candidates. There has long been a bias against voting for two people of the same last name on the ballot together for similar offices. I notice that for precinct delegate and judicial races in particular. The only married couple I see with prolonged state level success is the Kowalls. I’ve seen Mike Rogers and Bill Rogers in office at the same time, but one was always state when the other was federal or one was county when the other was state.  The lean of this district stops me from putting it as lean R, but I think we will narrowly hang on to this one.

Updated 10-28 – Fundraising favors Bellino and the district is trending this way slightly. I still have to leave it at tossup, but I think we hang on here.

 

HD-18 – Safe D (63.31% for Hertel)

2010 Demographics – 81.9% White, 12.8% Black, 57.6% Obama 08

Covers Eastpointe, St Clair Shores, and Macomb Portion of GP Woods (very small) in Macomb County.

2016 – Trump 44.92%, Hillary 50.48%, lost by 2750

2014 – Snyder 47.50%, Schauer 50.33%, lost by 901

2012 – Romney 40.62%, Obama 58.17%, lost by 8600

2006 – DeVos 41.09%, Granholm 57.18%, lost by 6550

The Hertel name is well known in SE Macomb. St Clair Shores is swingish and voted for Trump and Snyder. Eastpointe is so far D that this seat is safe D regardless of what St Clair Shores did for Trump and Snyder. Eastpointe was about 28% black in 2010, and I suspect the number is closer to 50% now. Trump got 26% there. Snyder got 30% in the off year. Romney got 25%. Snyder’s strength here was doing well in SCS and Eastpointe’s dropoff in off year turnout. Trump did well in SCS as well, but didn’t have Eastpointe’s dropoff. Romney and DeVos crashed and burned here.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-19 – Lean R (61.42% for Cox in 2016)  (Moved to Tossup tilt R 10-28)

2010 Demographics – 90% White, 49.2% Obama 08

Covers most of Livonia

2016 – Trump 51.11%, Hillary 43.58%, won by 4000

2014 – Snyder 60.45%, Schauer 37.77%, won by 8400

2012 – Romney 51.98%, Obama 47.24%, won by 3500

Livonia is basically your mainstream Michigan white suburb. I’d call it the quintessential moderate area – by my definition of moderate. It’s a heavily Catholic suburb. The best candidates here are competent candidates who put the economy first and don’t make a lot of waves – be it John McCain or Roy Moore.  This is Thad McCotter’s hometown to give an idea about the area. Candidates rarely break 55% in Livonia.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican (Moved to Tossup 10-18)

Updated Analysis – I think we’re in decent shape here as long as we aren’t caught in a 06 style wave. This won’t be one of the first seats to fall, but it could in a bad wave.

Updated – Gongwer moved this to tossup based on D enthusiasm in SD-7. I’m not ready to do that yet with Meakin’s City Council election and Laura Cox being a strong candidate.

Updated 10-28 – D’s took a fundraising edge and are going all in here. They see something here and are coordinated. It’s enough for me to move this to tossup, although I have it as tilt R and think we survive here.

HD-20 – tossup (53.59% for Noble in 2016) (Moved from Lean R to tossup tilt D)

Covers Northville, Northville Twp, Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, and Easternmost Canton Twp in Wayne County.

2010 Demographics – 80.6% White, 6.2% Black, 8.6% Asian, 50.7% Obama 08

2016 – Trump 45.66%, Hillary 49.22%, lost by 1900

2014 – Snyder 62.85%, Schauer 35.76%, won by 10,000

2012 – Romney 51.74%, Obama 47.55%, won by 2200

This largely UMC district (outside of parts of Canton) is plagued by R infighting and is trending away from us partly due to that. The D’s had a similar district in the 2000’s that also included Wayne after RINO John Stewart (now officially a D) was termed out and his wife was denied the nomination. Wayne’s now in another district, but Canton and Plymouth City is much more of a problem than it was in 2004. This district has a large number of social liberal independents and moderate establishment Republicans, as well as a very strong tea party and social conservative movement. Both disliked Trump a bit, and he struggled here. State Senator Patrick Colbeck comes from Canton (not sure if he’s from the 20th or 21st). Jeff Noble is a conservative and he won by running 8% ahead of Trump. If Noble can unite the party, he should be okay in 2018. If not, we could be in trouble here then or in 2020.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis – Jeff Noble the incumbent isn’t campaigning for understandable  and sad reasons. His wife is in poor health and family comes first. I can’t fault Noble’s decision as a man, although this district is going to be very difficult to defend.

Updated 10-28 – I hope Noble is carried across the finish line because he’s doing the right thing as a man, although I have a bad feeling there. This district has the most D part of Canton and the rest of the district is trending blue. Noble’s outfundraised and can’t do the amount of doors he normally can. He’s a good guy and I hope he wins, but this district is trouble. 

HD-21 – Safe D (59.43% for Pagan in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 71.5% White, 12% Black, 10.8% Asian, 57.9% Obama 08

Covers Belleville, part of Canton and part of Van Buren Township in Wayne County

R’s held a similar district to this until 2008. R’s made a good shot at this or a similar district in 2010 and 2014, and came reasonably close, but couldn’t take the district in two good years for the party. I have to call this one safe D. I’m not going to crunch the numbers (Canton and Van Buren both split municipalities), except to say Belleville, Canton, and Van Buren Townships all are both moving away from us rapidly. Remember when Bentivolio won the new MI-11 in 2012 and lost the old MI-11? Belleville and Van Buren Twp were a big part of it (along with Redford, Westland, Wayne, and the portion of Dearborn Heights). This is now safe D until proven otherwise to me.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated 10-28 – Pagan has some residency issues although I don’t see that changing the results here. Canton’s too far gone as is Van Buren.

HD-22 – Safe D (60.34% for Chikrun in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 80% White, 13% Black, 61.6% Obama 08

Covers Roseville and Eastern Warren in Macomb County

I don’t know how Trump did here, although he lost Roseville and Warren overall. He probably didn’t win the district. This was a blue sink district.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-23 – Safe D (50.34% for Camilleri) (Moved from Lean D)

2010 Demographics – 87% White, 53.7% Obama 08

Covers Brownstown Twp, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, Trenton, and Woodhaven.

2016 – Trump 53.80%, Hillary 41.70%, won by 6000

2014 – Snyder – 52.25%, Schauer 45.73%, won by 2100

2012 – Romney 47.53%, Romney 51.61%, lost by 1900

2006 – Granholm 53.43%, DeVos 45.25%, lost by 3000

This is a “Trump Democrat” district that we flipped somewhat unexpectedly in the 2010 wave, but  lost in 2016 despite Trump winning the district. Redistricting made it somewhat easier in 2012 taking Sumpter  Twp, Flat Rock, and Rockwood out of the district, but its replacement Trenton still leaned D and it kept arguably the most D part of the old district (give or take Sumpter) in Brownstown Twp.  The key to winning this district is to run up the score in small base R Grosse Ile, get a solid win in Huron Twp, at least break even in the winnable tilt D areas like Trenton, and don’t get smoked in Brownstown Twp. That was what Snyder did. Trump won Brownstown Twp narrowly and rest by a good margin. I put this as Lean D, because Camilleri won this open seat district even with Trump leading the ticket for R’s.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated analysis – I’m not seeing this one going our way after looking at campaign finance. Moving to Safe D

HD-24 – Lean R (55.07% for Marino in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 85.9% White, 7.7% Black, 51.4% Obama 08

Covers Harrison Twp, Northern Clinton Twp, a small part of Macomb Twp.

2016 – Trump 55.98%, Hillary 39.95%, won by 7500

2014 – Snyder 57.41%, Schauer 40.88%, won by 5000

2012 – Romney 51.05%, Obama 48.12%, won by 1300

This is a lean R district that was in play heavily, but carried due to Trump. Harrison Twp usually votes light red. Clinton Twp leans D, but the portion here is more willing to vote for R’s. Macomb Twp leans R, but most of it is in the other district.  Macomb County overall is also capable of wild swings.

Trump won the Clinton Twp portion by about 1800 votes.  Trump won the Macomb portion by about 3000, and Harrison Twp by about 2700. Snyder won the Clinton Twp portion by about 1600, Macomb portion by 1600, and Harrison Twp by almost 1800. Romney lost the Clinton Twp portion by about 500. He won the Macomb Twp portion by about 1150 and Harrison Twp by 620. Hopefully Marino is taking care of the constituent matters. If he is, he’ll be tough to beat. If he isn’t, then he’s beatable.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated Analysis – I’m not sure how hard the D’s are targeting this one. I think Caucus is going into Oakland more while the Macomb D’s probably want SD-10.

Updated 10-28 – Still lean R for me.

HD-25 – Lean D (54.10% for Yanez in 2016) – (Moved from tossup)

2010 Demographics – 85.7% White (includes Chaldeans), 6.2% Black, 53% Obama 08

Covers Eastern Sterling Heights and part of North Central Warren.

2016 – Trump 52.49%, Hillary 42.94%, won by 4100

2014 – Snyder 53.15%, Schauer 44.68%, won by 2470

2012 – Romney 47.77%, Obama 51.17%, lost by 1440

This district was created to give R’s a shot at a revamped Sterling Heights/Warren district. There used to be a lean D district that R’s flipped in the late 90’s in one of the Engler landslides. The D’s narrowly took it back in 2002. Sterling Heights grew and Warren stayed stagnant so the districts had to change. The district was revamped to take a small part of Warren in 2012 and a different part of Sterling Heights which is now split east/west instead of north/south.  D’s still took the district in 2012 and 2014 narrowly. The district is now open again. Trump and Snyder both won it and won both parts of the district. Romney lost both parts of the district.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated Analysis – Moved to Lean D due to fundraising. Jasmine Early isn’t getting the help she needs.

Updated 10-28 – Still lean D, now almost safe. 15K isn’t going to win.

HD -26 – Safe D (60.36% for Townsend in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 86.8% White, 60.8% Obama 08

Covers Madison Heights and Royal Oak in Oakland County.

2016 – Trump 37.46%, Hillary 56.27%, lost by 8900

2014 – Snyder 51.45%, Schauer 46.32%, won by 1600

2012 – Romney 40.16%, Obama 58.41%, lost by 8500

2006 – DeVos 39.90%, Granholm 58.38%, lost by 7000

This was a district that was competitive until the Bush years. The D’s took it in the 90’s and never looked back, although it’s been close a couple of times.  Madison Heights is a mix of blue collar and yuppies. Royal Oak is a yuppie and hipster area. They will occasionally vote for a Snyder type, but that’s about it.

Interestingly, Trump the best out of the four in Madison Heights getting a respectable 44% there. It’s the 35% in Royal Oak that killed him here. Usually R’s need to get at least in the 40%+ range in this district to win the state.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-27 – Safe D (76.78% for Wittenberg)

2010 Demographics – 68.3% White, 25.1% Black

Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, and Royal Oak Twp.

2016 – Trump 23.31%, Hillary 71.48%, lost by 23,900

2014 – Snyder 33.94%, Schauer 63.96%, lost by 10000

2012 – Romney 24.72%, Obama 74.14%, lost by 23,950

2006 – DeVos 25.10%, Granholm 73.20%, lost by 19,000

This is (outside of small parts of Oak Park and Hazel Park) probably the most socially leftist district in the state outside of the City of Ann Arbor. All of us Republicans like to thank incumbent Robert Wittenberg from this area for his gun grabbing proposals. They helped us out in most of Michigan. It does however play well in the large parts of this district that are way out of Michigan’s mainstream.

Oak Park and Royal Oak Township are black majority. Oak Park is mostly black with a sizable Jewish minority. Most of the R votes in the city (15-20%) are from Orthodox Jews. Royal Oak twp is not to be confused with the city. It’s basically the projects and 1-2% Republican.  One to two. Romney had 5 votes there. Trump had 18, and Snyder 26. The rest of the area outside of parts of union heavy Hazel Park (where Trump did respectable) is largely SJW country (the part way out of MI’s mainstream) running from Berkley to Ferndale. Ferndale is the gay capital of Michigan. Hazel Park is a mix of Ferndale and old time blue collar union democrats. Huntington Woods and Pleasant Ridge is Oakland County’s  Ann Arbor. Berkley is transforming into one of these same types of communities over the past 15 years.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD -28 – Safe D (66.33% for Green in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 75.7% White, 13.7% Black, 5.4% Asian, 60.5% Obama

Covers Center Line, Western,  and Southern Warren in Macomb County

I didn’t number crunch this area because I’m fairly certain that Trump lost it. Trump was competitive in North Warren, but lost South Warren badly as more minorities move there. Center Line also went D. The most competitive parts of Warren were put in HD-25.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-29 – Safe D (71.25% for Greimel in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 39.8% White, 39.4% Black, 13.5% Latino

Covers Auburn Hills, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake,  Pontiac, and Sylvan Lake in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 26.66%, Hillary 69.48%, lost by 14,000

2014 – Snyder 31.60%, Schauer 66.63%, lost by 7400

2012 – Romney 23.83%, Obama 75.38%, lost by 18,000

2006 – DeVos 27.47%, Granholm 71.08%, lost by 11,300

This formerly black majority district expanded some as Pontiac dropped population. Any state rep district with Pontiac is safe D. Pontiac ranges from 82-88% D depending on its turnout. It is also around 65% of the district. Pontiac is capable in a bad year of flipping an otherwise R state senate district, so that’s all that needs to be said. Auburn Hills moved sharply D due to the combination of Pontiac residents moving there combined with Oakland University students. Keego Harbor tilts D, but Trump won it. Orchard Lake and Sylvan Lake lean Republican, but combined they are about 1/8 to 1/10 the voters of Pontiac depending on Pontiac’s turnout.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-30 – Safe R (53.85% for Farrington in 2016) (Moved from Lean R)

2010 Demographics – 84% White, 7.6% Asian, 50.8% Obama 08

Covers Western Sterling Heights, Utica, and part of Southern Shelby Twp in Macomb County

2016  – Trump 57.11%, Hillary 39.32%, won by 6800

2014 – Snyder 59.11%, Schauer 39.02%, won by 5900

2012 – Romney 51.42%, Obama 47.57%, won by 1440

This is one of two Sterling Heights based districts. It used to be split north/south with a clear R/D distinction. East/West is less R/D. It was an attempt at two winnable districts. This one is slightly more R because of swingish Utica and a portion of Base R Shelby Twp in the district. Trump won all municipality parts in this district and carried Farrington across the finish line against a very strong D opponent. (This seat was considered likely gone in 2016). Snyder also won every municipality as well. Romney lost the portion of Sterling Heights narrowly and won Utica narrowly. Shelby Twp is the reason why Romney won the district. D’s have a good bench in Sterling Heights, and Michael Notte would be a strong candidate for a rematch. I’ll rate the district as lean R because of Shelby Twp’s population growth and partisan leanings. If R’s keep it close to even in Sterling Heights and win Utica, they’ll win the district.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Analysis – The D’s preferred pick didn’t get past the primary. A reporting waiver isn’t going to win this district. Moved to Safe R.

Updated 10-28 – Still Reporting Waiver. Game over.

HD-31 – Lean D (56.16% for Sowerby in 2016) (Moved to Safe D)

2010 Demographics – 79.0% White, 14.5% Black, 57.9% Obama 08

Covers Fraser, Mt Clemens, and Southern Clinton Twp

2016 – Trump 48.12%, Hillary 47.28%, won by 360

2014 – Snyder 49.58%, Schauer 48.08%, won by 406

2012 – Romney 41.76%, Obama 57.18%, lost by 6500

I had this at borderline safe/lean D. I went lean because Trump AND Snyder won it – which surprised me because of Mt Clemens and Eastern Clinton Twp (and that one large 90% D precinct – precinct 5 with an 800-900 vote spread in presidential years). This district in all its incarnations has frustrated R’s for a long time who have put a bit of effort in this area. The toughest parts of this district is the Gratiot Corridor in Mt Clemens and Eastern Clinton Twp. That part of the district is a mix of union whites and blacks. The rest of the district (Western Clinton Twp) is swingish with a d tilt in Frasier.

Trump won the part of Clinton Twp by 450, won Fraser 54-41, and lost Mt Clemens 55-39. Snyder won the part of Clinton Twp by 700, won Fraser 53-45, and lost Mt Clemens 57-40. Romney lost the part of Clinton Twp 56-42, Fraser 52-47, and Mt Clemens 66-33.

This is an inverse in some ways of HD-30 except Fraser is more D than Utica is R, and Clinton Twp is more D than Sterling Heights is swingish. Rs have to run the table to win this district. There’s one path, and it’s difficult. Mt Clemens does for the D’s what Shelby Twp portion does for the R’s in HD-30. D don’t have to win the portion of Clinton Twp to win the district (while R’s do) – and they normally do win it. Fraser is swingish, but the R’s need to win it by a good margin to win the district. Trump and Snyder did it. The toughest part is keeping the D’s at/under 57% in Mt Clemens.  If the southeastern 82% D precinct turns out, that’s impossible.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated Analysis – Reporting waiver isn’t going to flip this district.

Updated 10-28 – Safe D due to reporting waiver.

HD-32 – Safe R (63.66% for Hornberger in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 92% White, 49.3% Obama 08

Covers Chesterfield Twp and New Baltimore in Macomb County, and Casco, Columbus Ira, Kenockee, Kimball, Riley, and Wales Twps, along with the St Clair portions of Richmond and Memphis.

2016 – Trump 64.51%, Hillary 30.75%, won by 15000

2014 – Snyder 56.78%, Schauer 40.72%, won by 4500

2012 –  Romney 53.83%, Obama 45.03%, won by 3700

2006 – DeVos 51.00%, Granholm 47.32%, won by 1200

This is a borderline safe district. I’m going to call it safe although nothing is 100% safe in Macomb County or the thumb. We lost a district similar to this in 2008 with a one term D rental, even losing some normally base R areas in a collapse. We took it back in the 2010 wave and it hasn’t been close since. As long as we don’t have a quitter as the top of the ticket candidate, we should be fine.

Trump cleaned up here. Kimball Twp is historically D leaning, but Snyder narrowly won it. Trump got over 63% there. Chesterfield Twp in Macomb is usually light red and winnable for D’s, but Trump broke 60% there.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-33 – Safe R (69.99% for Yaroch in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 89.2% White, 51.2% McCain 08

Covers Armada Twp, Lenox Twp, Memphis, Most of Macomb Twp, Ray Twp, Richmond ,and Richmond Twp in Macomb County.

2016 – Trump 63.80%, Hillary 32.27%, won by 15000

2014 – Snyder 59.55%, Schauer 38.22%, won by 6200

2012 – Romney 56.11%, Obama 43.07%, won by 4550

This is the 2nd safest district in Macomb County.  The only top ticket D strength is Lenox Twp (now swingish) which is moving away from the D’s as more white people more there. The area around the village of New Haven in Lenox Twp has a sizable black population. As more people move to the distant suburbs and rural areas past the Macomb and Chesterfield Twps including Lenox Twp, the more R it is becoming. Richmond has some D strength downticket as of 2008, but that might have been gone after the 2010 wave. Romney’s 56% was despite him not being a good fit in Macomb County.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-34 – Safe D (88.55% for Neely in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 32.2% White, 60.4% Black, 90.1% Obama 08

Covers most of the City of Flint in Genesee County

Flint itself ranges from around 83-88% D. Trump got 14% in Flint. Romney got 10%. The number in this district was lower than that, since much of the “white” part of Flint is in HD-49 (Which is still D).

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-35 – Safe D (83.81% for Moss in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 34.9% White, 59.4% Black, 81.7% Obama 08

Covers Lathrup Village, Southfield, and Southfield Twp (better known as Franklin, Beverly Hills, and Bingham Farms) in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 15.71%, Hillary 81.81%, lost by 36,500

2014 – Snyder 24.94%, Schauer 74.26%, lost by 19,500

2012 – Romney 17.82%, Obama 81.89%, lost by 36,100

2006 – DeVos 20.01%, Granholm 79.27%, lost by 25,400

This area is the number one reason why Oakland is more democrat now than the early 1990’s. Southfield was 1/3 black in 1990. It is 70% black today. Lathrup Village is also a black majority. Southfield Twp is swingish, but not for Trump candidates. Snyder numbers are the best case scenario here as he kept the D’s under 75%.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-36 – Safe R (71.84% for Lucido in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 90.4% White, 55.7% McCain

Covers Bruce, part of Shelby, and Washington Townships in Macomb County

2016 – Trump 65.65%, Hillary 30.48%, won by 17,100

2014 – Snyder 66.98%, Schauer 31.21%, won by 11,200

2012 – Romney 60.93%, Obama 39.36%, won by 9,800

This is the safest district in Macomb. These are all base R areas. R would even survive a wild swing here.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-37 – Safe D (60.63% for Greig)

2010 Demographics – 68.5% White, 16.6% Black, 10.6% Asian, 59.9% Obama 08

Covers Farmington and Farmington Hills in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 35.59%, Hillary 60.06%, lost by 12,200

2014 – Snyder 51.28%, Schauer 47.31%, won by 1400

2012 – Romney 40.21%, Obama 59.01%, lost by 9500

2010 – DeVos 40.49%, Granholm 58.38%, lost by 6900

This is the 2nd biggest reason why Oakland County is tougher than it was in the 90’s. It’s hard to believe, but R’s held this district for a long time until 2002 when now Troy resident Andrew Rocky Raczkowski was termed out as state rep. Demographics then took over as more people moved from Southfield. Farmington Hills flipped at the top of the ticket for POTUS either in 1996 or 2000. Snyder and Bill Dwyer won it, but they are the exceptions, not the rule. Farmington Hills is now more D than West Bloomfield.  Farmington held on longer, but that’s now flipped as well.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-38 – Lean R (57.66% for Crawford) (Moved to Tossup Tilt R)

2010 Demographics – 79.1% White, 5.6% Black, 10.3% Asian, 49.4% McCain

Covers Lyon Twp, Novi, Novi Twp, Walled Lake, and Oakland County’s portion of Northville in Oakland County.

2016 – Trump 49.43%, Hillary 45.77%, won by 1900

2014 – Snyder 64.72%, Schauer 33.91%, won by 10,100

2012 – Romney 53.48%, Obama 45.65%, won by 3800

2010 – DeVos 51.27%, Granholm 47.37%, won by 1350

This seat should be safe R, but Novi and the City of Northville  is becoming much more of a problem for R’s. About 62% of the district is Novi/Northville. Swingish Walled Lake (Trump won it, Bush lost it) is about 6.6% of the District. About 31% (and growing) of the district is GOP base area of South Lyon/Lyon Twp . As of now, Lyon Twp/South Lyon is strong enough to counter a Novi disaster (Trump) as long as the candidate holds his own in Walled Lake. Lyon Twp is almost 60% Trump. South Lyon was 55% Trump, and he needed all of it to win the district.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Tossup (10-12-2018)

Updated analysis – I’ll keep this at Lean R, but it is a very slight lean. The D’s got their top candidate. Incumbent Kathy Crawford nearly got beat by a 20-something R on the primary due to right flank issues (only won due to her home of Novi) and depleted her cash on hand advantage. There’s a libertarian on the ballot. Novi/Northville are about 50/50 at best and do not like Trump at all. Crawford’s scared and will have the caucus funding. Does the D caucus go for this? That’s the question. Hopefully Lyon Twp’s growth and the Crawford’s Novi institutionalism saves the day.

Updated 10-12-18 – Gongwer moved it to tossup. I’ll wait until the fundraising reports are in before I decide whether or not to move it, but I’m not shocked the D’s are going on offense here because of Novi’s leftward shift.

Updated 10-28-18 – I have a bad feeling on this one. If Trump didn’t win this district (due to Lyon Twp), I’d have it as tossup tilt D. Kelly Breen’s running even with Crawford in fundraising. Novi’s stampeding left. Crawford nearly lost her primary to a 20-something since conservatives aren’t that happy with her. I think Lyon Twp saves the day. Barely.

HD-39 – Lean R (50.41% for Kesto) –

2010 Demographics – 83.2% White, 6.9% Black, 5.3% Asian, 52.8% Obama 08

Covers Commerce Twp, Wixom, and Western/Northern part of West Bloomfield

2016 – Trump 49.67%, Hillary 45.98%, won by 1900

2014 – Snyder 60.94%, Schauer 37.57%, won by 7800

2012 – Romney 51.37%, Obama 47.78%, won by 1750

West Bloomfield has been D for a long time due to the (Majority?) Jewish population (D, although not to the extent it is in Huntington Woods or Upper West Side NY) and the (more than people expect) black population there.  It doesn’t have the same black population of Farmington Hills next door, but it is enough to bring the D’s the win in close races.  There’s also a large Chaldean population in West Bloomfield and that vote is winnable by the right candidate (Kesto is Chaldean and probably survived difficult races because of that vote). The old district had Commerce Twp and West Bloomfield and it was a tossup district because usually base R Commerce Twp downticket could cancel West Bloomfield. The 2006/2008 waves hammered in West Bloomfield downticket. In the 2010 wave, we lost the district against the incumbent by 86 votes. Commerce couldn’t catch up with West Bloomfield’s spread anymore. West Bloomfield was split East/West with redistricting. Since then, Klint Kesto’s won difficult races. Wixom is the new addition and it is D leaning in presidential years since the Wixom plant closed. That’s due to the low rent apartments. That precinct is a 70% D precinct and it’s large. I was surprised Trump won this district and even more surprised he did better than Romney in vote spread. He bombed in much of West Bloomfield, although I think the Chaldean Vote limited some of his damage in Northern West Bloomfield. Trump took bigger damage in HD-40.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican” after the D nominee Jennifer Suidan was accused by Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner (D) of embezzlement. Suidan wasn’t charge (as of now) but has been fired from the law firm she works for as well.

UPDATE 10-18 – Gongwer moved from Strong R to Lean R – I agree with that placement.

Updated Analysis – Moved to Lean R/borderline Safe R due to the charges. Berman’s a good candidate as well.

Updated 10-28 – Jennifer Suidan was formally charged with embezzlement. Prominent Democrats denounced her for stealing from their donors. If it wasn’t for West Bloomfield, I’d call this safe R due to crookedness.

HD-40 – tossup (53.48% for McCready in 2016) (tilt D)

2010 Demographics – 82.6% White, 7.2% Black, 6.4% Asian, 52.0% Obama 08

Covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, and Southeastern West Bloomfield in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 42.72%, Hillary 53.61%, lost by 6,500

2014 – Snyder 66.39%, Schauer 32.80%, won by 14,500

2012 – Romney 52.73%, Obama 46.68%, won by 3700

I didn’t like this district much when it was drawn. Southern West Bloomfield is very democrat, and Birmingham has become more and more swingish and even before that was the most social liberal area in the state that votes for R’s fairly often (Romney won it). Regardless, R’s have held this without much trouble until the unexpected close race for McCready who was hampered by Trump. Candidate quality here is going to be essential in 2018. The D’s are going to target this district.

Romney got 41.77% in this part of West Bloomfield. He did very well in Birmingham, winning it with 54.74%. He got 57.06% in Bloomfield Twp and 66.61% in Bloomfield Hills. Snyder was a perfect fit for this district. Snyder got 54.30% in this part of West Bloomfield and cleaned up in the rest of the district. Trump was the worst fit possible for this district. He got 34.58% in this part of West Bloomfield, 42.26% in Birmingham, 54.21% in Bloomfield Hills, and 46.85% in Bloomfield Twp. Candidate quality is essential here.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis – I followed the 40th closely due to business reasons and I’ll keep this at a tossup. Demographics make this tough, as does money. That said, both candidates have money. Both candidates won tough primaries. Both candidates had to earn their win. Wolkinson is an attorney in his late 30’s and Manoogian is a kid just out of college. The D’s IMO nominated their weaker candidate from the primary. This will be a tough hold for us with the Trump backlash, but Wolkinson showed something with the primary. In addition, Jewish Republicans really showed up in the primary in MI-11, HD-39, and HD-40. Lena Epstein, Ryan Berman, and David Wolkinson all won. If they show up again to the same degree, we may keep this seat. If Wolkinson fights, he may beat the odds. It won’t be easy.

Updated 10-28 – This one is tough. Wolkinson isn’t dead yet and is out swinging. That said, there’s a lot of indivisible trolls in this district, and most of them have money. The most D part of West Bloomfield is in this district. If he can get the Jewish crossover vote, he has a chance.

HD-41 – Tossup (56.45% for Howrylak in 2016) (tilt R)

2010 Demographics – 75% White, 16.9% Asian, 50.4% Obama 08

Covers Clawson and Troy in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 46.97%, Hillary 48.35%, lost by 675

2014 – Snyder 63.60%, Schauer 33.77%, won by 9800

2012 – Romney 51.44%, Obama 47.61%, won by 1900

2006 – DeVos 50.17%, Granholm 48.44%, won by 685

This district is becoming more and more problematic for R’s for 2 major reasons. A. Infighting. B. Demographics. Troy is very similar to Novi although it has a higher Asian population and smaller black population. It’s historically a base R area which shifted left due to demographics and R’s fighting each other.  Hopefully we have a good candidate here winning the primary.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated analysis – Tietz had a very difficult primary which makes things tough. He’s got a good team behind him and the Brooks Patterson machine which will help for the future. Tough battle, but I’ll keep it at lean R for now.

Updated 10-28 – Tietz was doubled up on fundraising. Along with Troy’s leftward shift, that makes me very nervous. Moving to tossup tilt R.

HD-42 – Safe R (63.59% for Theis in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 95.5% White, 54.8% McCain08

Covers Brighton, Brighton Twp, Genoa Twp, Green Oak Twp, Hamburg Twp, and Putnam Twp in Livingston County.

2016 – Trump 59.31%, Hillary 35.11%, won by 13,500

2014 – Snyder 67.15%, Schauer 31.00%, won by 13,800

2012 – Romney 60.05%, Obama 38.98%, won by 11,100

2006 – DeVos 55.65%, Granholm 43.02%, won by 4300

This is my district. This district is among the safest in Michigan. The only question here is migration patterns (Hamburg is 10 miles from Ann Arbor) and their effect on the vote in the future. Putnam (better known as Pinckney) and Green Oak have some moderate union D roots, although Green Oak is Safe R now, and Putnam now leans R at worst and is “almost safe.” Hamburg (South of Brighton, West of US23) is the Twp to watch and has the most Ann Arbor influence. The City of Brighton is “non partisan” but is “light red” in most elections. Obama did take it in 2008. This district was historically R overall, moved left in the 90’s like most of Michigan, then moved right in the early 2000s with new growth, moved with the state with the waves (McCain is a worst case scenario here), and moved right again in early 2010’s. It’s Safe R, but it’s the margins that matter here.  Almost all of the “less R” parts (outside City of Howell and Unadilla Twp) of Livingston County are in this district, although by less R, I mean areas usually less than 60% R. (Brighton City, Hamburg, Putnam, Green Oak – basically the M-36 corridor.) Even in the worst waves, Brighton Twp and Genoa Twp will carry the R’s here.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

Update 10-18 – Gongwer moved it to lean R due to D candidate quality, number of college educated voters, and speculation of Ann Arbor spillover from one political commentator who follows Livingston County (I think I know who).  I understand its reasoning, but I can’t see the D’s breaking 45% here so I’m keeping this as safe R. The last D to win this district was Carl Levin’s narrow win here over Jack Hoogendyk in 2008 in a gigantic blue wave where Jack had no campaign whatsoever against the D’s legend. Ann Bollin’s been a Twp Clerk since 2002 and well respected. She works hard, is disciplined, and has support of tea party and establishment types. She’s safe on her right flank, and her views aren’t outside of the mainstream here either. Trump also won this district by a bigger margin than Romney did, and Ann has some strength in Hamburg  and Green Oak through community ties as well as Brighton Twp. In order for the D’s to win here, they need to win Brighton City and Putnam Twp big,  take Hamburg by a decent number, flip Green Oak, and not get smoked in Genoa and Brighton Twp. Those all went for Trump and Romney. Obama won Brighton City over McCain. Basically, it would take a scandal or a Martha Coakley situation. D’s have a very good candidate, but I see this being closer to the old HD-73 race in 2008 between Tom Pearce and Bruce Hawley except without straight tickets.

Update 10-28 – Gongwer’s D bias came through on this. D pacs aren’t playing ball here and there are no late contribution reports for her.

HD-43 – Safe R (65.47% for Tedder in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 87.2% White, 5.8% Latino, 50.3% McCain 08

Covers Clarkston, Independence Twp, Lake Angelus, and most of Waterford in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 56.79%, Hillary 37.46%, won by 9700

2014 – Snyder 62.80%, Schauer 34.83%, won by 9300

2012 – Romney 54.59%, Obama  44.19%, won by 5100

This is a borderline safe R/lean R district. Most get more worried about this seat than is needed. The old 43rd used to be very close in the 2000’s, but that was Waterford and Northern West Bloomfield based.  In order to lose this district, D’s have to win Waterford by about 4-5K votes minimum at the state rep level and hope the score isn’t run up in base R Independence Twp.  Waterford votes more R than D now and isn’t as union D based as it used to be. It’s arguably still winnable for D’s, but Fran Amos and Gail Haines beat the best the D’s sent in 2002, 2004, and 2008 in the tougher district, and won the Waterford portion each time. McCain won the district despite losing Waterford. Romney barely won Waterford, and won the district by 5000. I think Waterford now is becoming for the D’s what Farmington Hills is for the R’s – gone outside of a real great (or bad) year or with the perfect candidate.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican” Moved to “Lean Republican” on Oct 1.

Update (10-9) – I’m not buying the change on this one. I’ve heard we aren’t as strong in Independence Twp this year, but even if that is the case, I don’t this this one in major trouble. Andrea Schroeder isn’t a bad candidate for us from what I hear. Campaign finance reports should show if this is a surprise fight or not.

Update 10-28 – I’m still not buying Gongwer’s rating here.

HD-44 – Safe R (68.56% for Runestad)

2010 Demographics – 92.7% White, 54.1% McCain

Covers Highland, Milford, Springfield, part of Waterford, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 60.61%, Hillary 33.95%, won by 14000

2014 – Snyder 66.24%, Schauer 31.61%, won by 11,600

2012 – Romney 59.05%, Obama 39.81%, won by 9,600

Some of the strongest tea party activity in the state is near the M-59 area is Northeastern Livingston and Western Oakland County. This district, the Livingston 42nd and 47th districts next door, the 46th District in Oakland, and the 33rd district in Macomb are three of most conservative districts in the state of Michigan. Two or three West MI districts are more Republican, but I don’t think they are more conservative (especially fiscal or size of government issues).

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-45 – Safe R (62.07% for Webber)

2010 Demographics – 81.4% White, 9.5% Asian, 51.3% McCain

Covers Rochester, Rochester Hills, and a small portion of Oakland Twp in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 51.48%, Hillary 43.89%, won by 3800

2014 – Snyder 66.99%, Schauer 31.57%, won by 12,100

2012 – Romney 55.77%, Obama 43.42%, won by 6100

Another border leanR/safeR district. I get a bit concerned at Rochester/Rochester Hills moving a bit away from us, but Trump won the district, as did McCain. Safe for now until I see D’s take Rochester or Rochester Hills. Two precincts in Base R Oakland Twp are also in the district.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Update 10-28 – Fundraising edge heavy to Weber. Still Safe R.

HD-46  – Safe R (69.31% for Reilly)

2010 Demographics – 91.2% White, 55.5% McCain

Covers Addison Twp, Brandon Twp, most of Oakland Twp, Orion Twp, and Oxford Twp in Oakland County

2016 – Trump 61.11%, Hillary 33.28%, won by 14,200

2014 – Snyder 67.91%, Schauer 29.89%, won by 12,500

2012 – Romney 60.00%, Obama 38.87%, won by 10,100

This district covers the base R area of NE Oakland County. Trump’s overall numbers in Oakland County are deceptive. He did terrible in some areas, but also improved on POTUS R numbers in others. Addison and Brandon Twp were very trump friendly. Orion and Oxford were generic R to him. Oakland Twp wasn’t as good, but was still 61% for Trump. This is arguably the safest R district in Oakland County give or take the 44th.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-47 – Safe R (68.17% for Vaupel)

2010 Demographics – 95.2% White, 56.9% McCain

Covers Cohoctah Twp, Conway Twp, Deerfield Twp, Handy Twp (Fowlerville), Hartland Twp, Howell, Howell Twp, Iosco Twp, Marion Twp, Oceola Twp, Tyrone Twp, and Unadilla Twp in Livingston County

2016 – Trump – 65.09%, Hillary 29.55%, won by 17,800

2014 – Snyder – 67.44%, Schauer 30.30%, won by 11,800

2012 – Romney – 62.32%, Obama 36.54%, won by 11,800

2006 – DeVos – 58.73%, Granholm 39.80%, won by 6800

This is probably the most R district in SE Michigan. I lived here briefly in the mid 2000s. This covers most of the Hartland/Livingston Fenton Areas, most of the Howell area including the city, the Fowlerville area, and the far west part of Livingston County. The only sometimes D areas are the City of Howell (rarely) and Unadilla Twp (historically D, not recently). Tyrone Twp did vote for Stabenow in 1998 surprisingly (Flint Union influences stronger then), but there hasn’t been D strength there in a long time. There’s a lot of independents on the west side of this district, but they are conservative. Trump did extremely well with them. Romney didn’t do bad with them. McCain did awful. 56% here is a loss.  The old 42 and old 47th were about equal R% before redistricting, but taking Hamburg and Putnam out and putting Marion and Oceola Twps in made this district much more R. The question with 2020 redistricting in Livingston County is what townships go into another county district if it outgrows 2 districts. It barely fit 2 in back in 2010.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-48 – Safe D (53.82% for Faris in 2016) (moved from Lean D)

2010 Demographics – 90.8% White, 60.3% Obama 08

Covers Clio, Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, Genesee Twp, Montrose, Montrose Twp Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp.

2016 – Trump 51.79%, Hillary 42.94%, won by 3900

2014 – Snyder 39.58%, Schauer 57.38%, lost by 5300

2012  – Romney 39.84%, Obama 58.92%, lost by 8500

2006 – DeVos  35.52%, Granholm 63.12%, lost by 10100

This is a seat where I wonder what would happen if we put a few more resources in. The Cherry machine (John, sister Deb, Pam Faris (John’s wife)) usually win 60%+ and other dems usually win this seat comfortably – on par with R’s in Rochester Hills/Rochester.  Even bad fits among D’s win here, although not by a big margin. This is a traditional UAW White (outside of SW corner of Genesee Twp) democrat district. It’s not a super strong social liberal district however and prefers the old school D’s. John Cherry famously had a gun fundraiser and supported the original CPL bill. I think there is an outside chance of this one to get put in play although Faris would be very difficult to beat.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated Fundraising

Sheryl Kennedy (D) – Raised 42K, Spent 35K, 8K Cash on hand

Al Hardwick (R) – Raised 350, spent 2230? 1880 Cash on hand?

Updating analysis – I saw a campaign finance mess. Moved to Safe D. It would take a 2016 type year to flip this with lots of money.

HD-49 – Safe D (68.45% for Phelps in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 65.2% White, 27% Black, 70.5% Obama 08

Covers Flint Township, Flushing (City), Mt Morris, Mt Morris Twp, and part of Flint in Genesee County

I didn’t feel like number crunching the City of Flint to the micro level.  I can say that Trump did not come close to winning this district, so it’s still safe D.  Flushing went for Trump, but Mt Morris and Flint Twp weren’t close, let alone the City of Flint. Trump did respectable here for an R, but this is one of the safest D seats in the state.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-50 – Safe D (52.03% for Sneller)

2010 Demographics – 84% White, 8.4% Black, 57.9% Obama 08

Covers Burton, Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, and Mundy Twp in Genesee County

2016 Trump 47.93%, Hillary 47.23%, won by 321

2014 Snyder 44.44%, Schauer 53.43%, lost by 2600

2012 Romney 42.74%, Obama 56.32%, lost by 6200

2006 DeVos 39.77%, Granholm 58.93%, lost by 6900

This is a borderline safe/leanD seat, like the 48th and the Mt Clemens seat. Grand Blanc (swingish, tilts D) was one of the few Genesee County places that Trump didn’t win. The state rep D Sneller however lost the Grand Blancs and almost lost the district thanks in part to Trump wave in D leaning Mundy twp and usually safe D 60%+ Burton (Which Trump shockingly won). Sneller won Burton by an uncomfortable number  and lost Mundy Twp. This one isn’t supposed to be close. Trump actually won Burton narrowly and won Mundy big. This district is worth contesting.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated Fundraising

Tim Sneller (D) – Raised 66K, Spent 29K, 38K Cash on Hand

Trace Fisher (R) – $0

Updated Analysis – Moved to safe D. R’s show no money in the pre-primary and a failure to file for the post-primary. Outside of what I consider safe GOP HD-51, I’m not impressed with organized GOP efforts in Genesee and Macomb County this year. I don’t pin this all on the candidates either. They need some help.

HD-51 – Safe R (60.70% for Graves)

2010 Demographics – 93.9% White, 49.2% McCain

Covers Argentine Twp, Atlas Twp, Clayton Twp, Fenton, Fenton Twp, Gaines Twp, and Linden in Genesee County and Groveland Twp, Holly Twp, and Rose Twp in Oakland County.

2016 Trump 59.15%, Hillary 35.50%, won by 12,400

2014 Snyder 55.55%, Schauer 41.85%, won by 4800

2012 Romney 53.03%, Obama 45.89%, won by 3700

2006 DeVos 47.66%, Granholm 50.93%, lost by 1350

I think this district has moved enough in our direction to win even in bad years. The old district was a swingish tilt R district. The 90’s version was split more east/west and there was two lean D, but winnable in great year districts. This one picks up part of NW Oakland and Swingish tile D Flushing Twp and drops swing tilt-D Grand Blanc and lean D Mundy. Trump’s the exception here, not the norm., but Romney and Snyder both won it.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Update 10-28 – I’m still going with safe here. Lossing is running a legit campaign for D’s. Mueller is out working heavily as well and has the fundraising edge. Caucus is helping a bit as well. The district is trending our way. I don’t see this one flipping. Lossing is from Linden, but isn’t well liked there from his time as mayor. Fenton Twp and Argentine will go BIG for Mueller who is well known due to his apple orchard as well as being a deputy sheriff. 

HD-52 – Safe D (52.44% for Lasinski in 2016) (moved 10-28)

2010 Demographics – 90.3% White, 54.6% Obama 08

Covers Bridgewater Twp, Chelsea, Dexter, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp,

Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, Salem Twp, Saline, Saline Twp, Scio Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp in Washtenaw County.

2016 Trump 42.52%, Hillary 52.29%, lost by 5300

2014 Snyder 56.37%, Schauer 41.94%, won by 5500

2012 Romney 47.20%, Obama 51.74%, lost by 2300

2006 DeVos 43.45%, Granholm 55.30%, lost by 5100

This is a borderline safe/lean D district. If Lasinski got 52% despite being in a very feminist area and despite Trump doing the worst of any R in Washtenaw County since I don’t know when, then there’s a chance in the Jerry Maguire sense of the term. R’s had a tougher version of district with part of A2 City from 2002-2004 and 2010-2012. D’s held on in 2014 despite Snyder (from Superior Twp in Washtenaw County) being a great top of the ticket in this district, so I can’t call it a swing district. The problem is Scio Twp being 60-70% D most years, and also being the largest part of the district. R’s have to run the table to win because of the 1-2-3 punch of Scio Twp, City of Dexter, and Chelsea. Saline is a must win to win the district, and it is also going away from us fast. This is a winnable seat in a great year, but I’m not counting on this. It’s always worth a fight, however.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated Fundraising

Updated Analysis – I’m  tempted to move this to safe, but I’ve heard some good here from Aiuto. Ron Weiser, MIGOP Chair is from Washtenaw County as well. If he sees an opening, Aiuto  will get the money. I’m not counting on this one, but I’ll keep it as borderline lean/safe.

Updated 10-28 – R’s aren’t contesting this heavily. Moved to Safe D. 

HD-53 – Safe D (80.40% for Yousef in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 72.8% White, 7.5% Black, 11.8% Asian, 81.7% Obama 08 (Approx since precincts of twp were split)

Covers 2/3 of Ann Arbor, and small pockets of Ann Arbor Twp and Pittsfield Twp in Washtenaw County

I’m not going to break down A2 precincts because it’s a waste of time. Ann Arbor is 78-85% every year unless someone like Snyder leads the ticket. Schauer got 69% in the city and that’s considered good for R’s. Parts of Ann Arbor Twp are surrounded entirely by the City. That make it impossible to get the full numbers here for POTUS. 75%+D.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-54 – Safe D (74.99% for Peterson in 2016)

2010 Demographics – 57% White, 31.2% Black, 75.6% Obama 08

Covers Superior Twp, Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Twp in Washtenaw County

2016 Trump 23.05%, Hillary 72.03%, lost by 20,600

2014 Snyder 31.75%, Schauer 65.84%, lost by 8800

2012 Romney 23.76%, Obama 75.00%, lost by 20,900

2006 DeVos 26.77%, Granholm 72.80%, lost by 13,000

Ypsilanti is the red-headed stepchild of Ann Arbor. Some derisively call it Ann Arbor’s ghetto. That’s not totally accurate, but some parts of Ypsi fits the bill. Ypsi also has EMU. The township is a mix of working class whites, blacks, and some rural commuters to Ypsi and Ann Arbor. Superior Twp is a mix of Ann Arbor (especially UM Hospital) commuters and some projects on the Ypsi border. All of this is staunch D.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-55 – Safe D (69.33% for Zemke)

2010 Demographics – 68.3% White, 9.7% Black, 13.8% Asian, 69.3% Obama 08

Covers 1/3 of Ann Arbor, most of Ann Arbor and Pittsfield Twps, Augusta Twp, York Twp in Washtenaw County. Also covers the part of Milan in Washtenaw county.

York Twp leans R, and Trump won Augusta Twp, but that’s not outvoting Milan, Pittsfield Twp, and especially it’s portion of Ann Arbor. Safe D, to the point of 65%+.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-56 – Safe R (58.35% for Sheppard) (moved from lean R)

2010 Demographics – 94.2% White, 49.6% Obama 08

Covers  Bedford Twp, Dundee Twp, Erie Twp, Ida Twp, LaSalle Twp, Luna Pier, Milan (Monroe County Portion), Milan Twp, Monroe Twp, Petersburg, Raisinville Twp, Summerfield Twp, and Whiteford Twp in Monroe County

2016 – Trump 59.23%, Hillary 35.50%, won by 10,500

2014 – Snyder 53.50%, Schauer 43.76%, won by 2700

2012 – Romney 50.57%, Obama 48.37%, won by 961

2006 – DeVos 46.53%, Granholm 51.68%, lost by 1700

Nothing in Monroe County comes easy. It has a D heritage and downticket can be strong for D’s at times although R’s have done well there more often in the past 20 years. The most D parts of the county are in the 17th. This district covers rural areas in Western Monroe County, Monroe Twp which borders the city to the south and leans D, “Fermi” territory which is the industrial Lake Erie shore, and overlooked Bedford Twp. Bedford twp is basically a suburb of Toledo that is the largest municipality in Monroe County. It’s swingish, but moving in our direction.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated analysis – This is almost the 52nd in reverse I think for the D’s. There’s too much union potential to write this off for them, but it’s now borderline safe/lean R for Sheppard.

Updated 10-28 – Unions aren’t playing ball to the same degree.  Dems have no money here. Moved to Safe R.

HD-57 – Safe R (56.38% for Kahle) (Moved from Lean R)

2010 Demographics – 87.1% White, 7.9% Latino, 51.8% Obama 08

Covers all of Lenawee County except Cambridge Twp

2016 – Trump 57.16%, Hillary 36.74%, won by 8500

2014 – Snyder 53.62%, Schauer 43.43%, won by 2800

2012 – Romney 49.76%, Obama 48.93%, won by 344

2006 -DeVos 51.23%, Granholm 46.90%, won by 1330

Lenawee County has an R reputation due to Tim Walberg, but it’s very light red, if that. It’s usually close. After Walberg left the State House, the Spade brothers, pro-gun D’s, won the district for 12 years. R’s took it back after both Spades were termed out. Outside of Trump and to a lesser extent Snyder, it has been a close county. Adrian is strongly D with its college, union, and Latino population. Tecumseh swings/tilts slight D. The rest of the county usually leans Republican.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated analysis – Borderline safe/lean R at this point with fundraising.

Updated 10-28 – Moved to Safe R due to funding – same reason as 56.

HD-58 – Safe R (75.37% for Leutheuser)

2010 Demographics – 93.4% White, 53.6% Mccain

Covers Branch and Hillsdale Counties.

2016 – Trump 68.83%, Hillary 26.22%, won by 16000

2014 – Snyder 62.42%, Schauer 34.57%, won by 6800

2012 – Romney 60.04%, Obama 38.68%, won by 7750

2006 – DeVos 54.08%, Granholm 44.25%, won by 2900

This covers two base R Counties. Hillsdale usually is the 3rd or 4th most R county in the state by percentage (with Livingston). Branch sometimes breaks 60% R as well. Overall, it’s one of the safest districts in the state.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-59 – Safe R (66.77% for Miller)

2010 Demographics – 86.8% White, 5.3% Latino, 50.1% Obama 08

Covers all of St Joseph County and Calvin twp, Dowagiac, Jefferson twp, LaGrange Twp, Marcellus Twp,

Mason Twp, Newberg Twp, Penn Twp, Pokagon Twp, Porter Twp, Volinia Twp, and Wayne Twp in Cass County.

2016 – Trump 61.96%, Hillary 32.68%, won by 10900

2014 – Snyder 58.59%, Schauer 38.06%, won by 4700

2012 – Romney 54.68%, Obama 44.25%, won by 3900

2006 – DeVos 50.37%, Granholm 48.12%, won by 657

Cass County is prone to wild swings. There’s a small, but significant black population (for rural/small town MI) there going back to the underground railroad era and a Penn Twp Quaker settlement.  Dowagiac is 14% black and 5% Latino. LaGrange Twp (with Cassapolis) is about 17% black which has a D base in the county.  Calvin Twp is about 18% black. There are also a lot of populist whites which accounts for the swings. It didn’t impact the 59th, but it impacted the old 78th (which had Dowagiac now in the 59th) and led to some close calls there. The most D parts of Cass County are now in the 59th. St Joseph County is a base R county outside of Three Rivers.  St Joseph County has a sizable Latino population, mostly in Sturgis which still leans R. This is a seat that would only be potentially vulnerable in a 2008 type of year if Cass gets fickle and St Joe’s numbers are weak. I think Aaron Miller, a known hard worker, is strong enough to face whatever comes his way.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-60 – Safe D (69.31% for Hoadley)

2010 Demographics – 67.8% White, 20.1% Black, 6% Latino, 72.8% Obama 08

Covers Kalamazoo and most of Kalamazoo Twp in Kalamazoo County.

2016 – Trump 24%, Hilary 69.41%, lost by 17,900

2014 – Snyder 34.44%, Schauer 62.40%, lost by 5400

2012 – Romney 26.75%, Obama 71.79%, lost by 17,500

2006 – DeVos 27.72%, Granholm 70.69%, lost by 11,900

Kalamazoo has taken a hard left turn the past 15 years. It’s a combination of a few factors. Western Michigan University is a big reason. The north side of Kalamazoo is another. Jon Stryker is a far leftist gazillionaire heir who has taken the Colorado takeover model to try and put into practice here in Michigan. Kalamazoo was a swing county in the 90’s and early 2000s. Not anymore, and this district – which has always been leftist – is the biggest reason.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-61 – Tossup (48.39% for Iden) (tilt D)

2010 Demographics – 85.2% White, 5.6% Black, 53% Obama 08

Covers Oshtemo Twp, Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, Schoolcraft Twp, and Texas Twp in Kalamazoo County

2016 – Trump 44.85%, Hillary 49.18%, lost by 2250

2014 – Snyder 57.04%, Schauer 40.57%, won by 5700

2012 – Romney 49.09%, Obama 49.93%, lost by 458

2006 – DeVos 44.18%, Granolm 54.80%, lost by 4000

This seat covers most of the Kalamazoo Suburbs and some of the rural areas south and west of the city. Oshtemo Twp leans D being next to Western Michigan University. Portage is about as Swingish as it gets. The rest is base R territory in a non 2006 year, but smaller in population. Portage is the big key to this district. Brant Iden barely won Portage and barely won the district. Historically, candidate quality has been a big factor here. This seat is one of those contested every election, but D’s haven’t broken through yet.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis – Everyone I know considers this a tossup, and I see no reason to change that. Iden survived (and even won swing area Portage) when he was toast before, so I can’t count him out. Oshtemo Twp (WMU West) is a big problem.

Update – 10-28 – Still tossup, but tilt D due to D lean at top of ticket combined with Iden’s close win and Griffin’s fundraising edge.

HD-62 – Lean D (48.03% for Bizon)

2010 Demographics 73.5% White, 15.2% Black, 5.4% Latino, 58% Obama 08

Covers Albion, Albion Twp, Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, Clarence Twp, Convis Twp, Lee Twp, Pennfield Twp, Sheridan Twp, and Springfield in Calhoun County.

2016 – Trump 48.42%, Hillary 46.13%, won by 860

2014 – Snyder 49.20%, Schauer 48.67%, won by 126

2012 – Romney 45.67%, Obama 55.15%, lost by 4300

2006 – DeVos 39.44%, Granholm 59.03%, lost by 5800

Despite Trump and Snyder’s wins, I have to go lean D. When Dr. John Bizon – a great candidate for this district, won by the skin of his teeth as an incumbent despite Trump winning the district, that says a lot about the traditional leanings. This was a stupidly conceded seat created to help the former Speaker Jace Bolger. I did not like the idea of putting Albion and Battle Creek in the same district. Calhoun County swings and has two major D bases. Battle Creek (and Springfield which basically is part of the city) is one, and Albion is the other. Combining those – along with D leaning Bedford Twp, makes this seat lean D for anyone not named Dr. John Bizon who shockingly took the district twice. He’s running for Senate now, so this seat leans D again. The problem is that 66% of the district is Battle Creek, Albion, or Springfield. That’s not including Bedford Twp. While Battle Creek is D, it can be close with the right candidate. The white vote (71%) in Battle Creek is winnable and Trump probably won it.  R’s need to get about 44% total in BC to have a chance. Trump did. Snyder had 47% (his former home – and Schauer’s current home).  Albion is 70%D territory due to the college and a large (30%) black population.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis. – I’m tempted to move this to tossup because Dave Morgan’s working hard. Dave Morgan’s not going down without a fight here. I need to see if Caucus gets involved. If they do, then this could stay ours. I’m still at lean D for now due to geography, barely.

Updated 10-28 – Dave Morgan is trying. I’ll give him that. This seat was create as a blue sink however and that will probably make the difference. Bolger was a idiot for putting Albion and Battle Creek in the same district. Still Lean D. 

HD-63 – Safe R (60.87% for Maturen)

2010 Demographics 91.1% White, 50% McCain 08

Covers Athens Twp, Burlington Twp, Clarendon Twp, Eckford Twp, Emmet Twp, Fredonia Twp, Homer Twp, Leroy Twp, Marengo Twp, Marshall, Marshall Twp, Newton Twp, and Tekonsha Twp in Calhoun County. Covers Brady Twp, Charleston Twp,Climax Twp,Comstock Twp, Galesburg, Kalamazoo Twp precinct 12, Pavilion Twp, Richland Twp, Ross Twp, and Wakeshma Twp in Kalamazoo County

2016 – Trump 57.47%, Hillary 36.41%, won by 9750

2014 – Snyder 60.19%, Schauer 37.22%, won by 7200

2012 – Romney 54.62%, Obama 44.16%, won by 4800

2006 – DeVos 44.91%, Granholm 53.71%, lost by 3400

This district was created to be safe R to protect then speaker Jace Bolger – who nearly lost the district after he played some bad gamesmanship in 2012 – despite Romney’s 10% win. Bolger won by 750.

Interestingly Comstock Twp and next door Galesburg are Trump/Obama municipalities in Kalamazoo County. I didn’t expect that. Galesburg is often D and Comstock is more D than R. I never liked this district because it could have taken Albion and its 1200-1700 D vote spread. The old 63rd at least had swingish to tilt D Bedford Twp to take SOME pressure off the 62nd. Safe R, barring a 2006 disaster or another massive blunder.

Update – David Maturen’s liberalism on some issues cost him in the primary to the more conservative Matt Hall. Hall put a lot of his money in the race and should win the general without major trouble.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-64 – Lean R (62.52% for Alexander)

2010 Demographics 83% White, 9.5% Black, 51.7% Obama 08

Covers Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp, and Summit Twp in Jackson County.

2016 – Trump 54.04%, Hillary 39.56%, won by 5600

2014 – Snyder 56.08%, Schauer 41.95%, won by 3500

2012 – Romney 51.12%, Obama 47.60%, won by 1300

2006 – DeVos 48.53%, Granholm 50.11%, lost by 490

Jackson may be the birthplace of the GOP, but it’s the suburbs that carry its tradition today. That said, Jackson is more like Battle Creek. It’s D, but not so D that its suburbs and rural areas  can’t outvote the city.  This is a battle of the bases district. We lost a very similar district to this in the 2006 wave and won it back in 2010. Jackson is about 30% of the district and ranges from 55%-65% D depending on turnout and what kind of year it is. Summit Twp, Jackson’s largest suburb and usually about 55%R, is about the same size. The big base R areas are Sandstone and Spring Arbor (home to an Evangelical college of the same name). Spring Arbor is 65%R and Sandstone is 63-68% R. The rest of the district is rural usually R areas, but more so for Trump than others. The only places under 60% for Trump were Jackson and Summit Twp, and Trump ran with generic R in Summit Twp. The rural areas are going our way, and Summit Twp is stable so I’m almost tempted to put this as Safe R, but this seat flipped in the wave before (as did the 65th) to heir force Martin Griffin who was later demolished in the R wave (partly self-inflicted wounds).

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated Analysis – I don’t see anything to change here from a strong Lean R that’s close to safe R.

Updated 10-28 – Still strong lean R. Alexander has the edge. D’s running a respectable race. Jackson give them a a chance to win if it goes heavier than normal D.

HD-65 – Safe R (60.51% for Roberts) (Moved 10-28 to Safe)

2010 Demographics – 90.2% White, 49.1% McCain

Covers Brookfield Twp, Eaton Rapids, Eaton Twp, and Hamlin Twp in Eaton County. Covers

Blackman Twp, Columbia Twp, Grass Lake Twp, Henrietta Twp, Leoni Twp, Liberty Twp, Norvell Twp,

Rives Twp, Springport Twp, Tompkins Twp, and Waterloo Twp in Jackson County. Covers Cambridge Twp in Lenawee County.

2016 – Trump 59.78%, Hillary 34.32%, won by 11,000

2014 – Snyder 55.39%, Schauer 42.43%, won by 4000

2012 – Romney 53.29%, Obama 45.51%, won by 3300

2006 – DeVos 47.58%, Granholm 50.28%, lost by 1160

This is a catch all district that covers what didn’t fit in the 71st in Eaton, 64th in Jackson, and the 57th in Lenawee. This seat is mostly rural with Jackson’s two swingish suburbs also in the district as well as small town Eaton Rapids in Eaton County. Leoni Twp tilts more D. Blackman Twp is more R than D. Both are winnable for either party. Don’t let the numbers fool you here. I have this as a lean R (almost safe) despite the numbers due to losing this one in the 2006 to a Jim Barcia type of Democrat in the late Mike Simpson. Mike Shirkey took this one back in 2010 in the special and regular elections (same time). The D’s have come close here a few times. I want to put this as safe, but I still have memories of the 2006/2008 collapse. Jackson and Eaton County also have their share of state workers as well which makes off years harder here than in other areas. Trump’s 59% in Leoni Twp was impressive. That was an Obama suburb. 53% in Blackman was impressive too, but that’s more R than D. It’s still good. This is a populist district prone to swings, so R’s better put some work here.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

Updated Fundraising

Terri McKinnon (D) – Raised 13K, Spent 5400, 7200 Cash on Hand

Sarah Lightner (R) – Raised 48K, Spent 36K, 12.5K Cash on Hand

Updated Analysis – Lighter had a tough primary, but a solid win. I have this as lean R and almost safe.

Updated 10-28 – Moved to Safe R due to fundraising and district trends.

HD-66 – Safe R (54.26% for Griffin) (moved to Safe R 10-28)

2010 Demographics – 84.2% White, 8.7% Latino, 52.8% Obama 08

Covers all of Van Buren County and Alamo Twp, Cooper Twp, and Parchment in Kalamazoo County.

2016 – Trump 53.49%, Hillary 40.15%, won by 5650

2014 – Snyder 55.89%, Schauer 41.13%, won by 4100

2012 – Romney 49.62%, Obama 49.17%, won by 187

2006 – DeVos 43.53%, Granholm 55.05%, lost by 3900

I expected D’s to go after this district someday when it was drawn. They went after it in 2016 open seat. Trump helped here more than he hurt, which is somewhat surprising with the Latino population growth in this district along with coastal Chicago influences. Beth Griffin ran slightly ahead of Trump. This is an ancestry R district, but is a tossup at the top of the ticket for the most part since 2000. Covert is small, but significantly D. Griffin lost Parchment, Covert, Bangor, South Haven, and South Haven Twp. She also tied in Paw Paw. Winning Decatur and Hartford was impressive and left no doubt in the election.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated Analysis – I’m wondering if D caucus is even going to engage here this time with the money balance. Still lean R, but closer to safe than tossup.

Updated 10-28 – D’s aren’t engaging. Safe R due to fundraising.

HD-67 – Safe D (54.63% for Cochrane) (Moved to Safe D 10-28)

2010 Demographics – 82.6% White, 6.4% Black, 5.7% Latino, 55.9% Obama 08

Covers Alaiedon Twp, Aurelius Twp, Bunker Hill Twp, Delhi Twp, Ingham Twp, Leroy Twp, Leslie,

Leslie Twp, Mason, Onondaga Twp, Stockbridge Twp, Vevay Twp, Wheatfield Twp, White Oak Twp,

Williamston and part of Lansing in Ingham County.

2016 – Trump 44.70%, Hillary 48.61%, lost by 1980

2014 – Snyder 47.42%, Schauer 50.59%, lost by 1040

2012 – Romney 44.48%, Obama 54.42%, lost by 4600

A similar district to this was created in 2002 as a 50/50 fair fight. The D’s had strong candidates and took the district, hanging on to it even in waves. This is a moderate district heavily rural with some suburbs (Mason, Delhi Twp better known as Holt, and small commuter town Williamston) and part of Lansing itself. The only path for R’s to win is to run up the score in the rural areas, take Mason and increasingly difficult Delhi Twp, and then hope Lansing isn’t too bad of a loss. I think Bush might have won this district in 2004, and Snyder might have in 2010. Trump did very well in the rural parts, lost the Lansing suburbs in this district, and got smoked in the city. Trump won overall (49-43 2100 votes) without including the Lansing portion which he lost by 4000. (66-27%). Snyder won overall without the Lansing portion (51-47, 1250 votes), but lost Lansing . He won the same areas Trump won except that he lost Bunker Hill Twp and won Williamston and did better in the suburbs. Snyder lost this part of Lansing 66-31 and by 2280. Romney lost the district even outside of Lansing. He did worse than Trump in Lansing’s suburbs AND the rural areas. He lost the non-Lansing part by 61 votes. He lost Lansing by about 4500 (72-27). I didn’t run DeVos numbers because of the old borders and reprecincting. State workers despised DeVos (and still do) and I’ll be surprised if he broke 40% here.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated analysis – This district is the great white whale for R’s and was created as a 50/50 district. It’s moved away from it as Delhi Twp moved more D. Bush won it in 2004, but it’s gone D narrowly most of the time outside of the Obama two terms. With straight ticket gone, this is worth a battle since I think there may be less damage in the minority parts of South Lansing. This is still lean D, however.

Updated 10-28 – Safe D due to fundraising gap and district lean.

HD-68 – Safe D (72.99% for Schor)

2010 Demographics – 56.6% White, 22.1% Black, 12.7% Latino, 74.7% Obama 08

Covers most of Lansing and all of Lansing Twp in Ingham County

2016 – Trump 24.09%, Hillary 69.85%, lost by 17,600

2014 – Snyder 28.28%, Schauer 69.46%, lost by 10,700

2012 – Romney 24.64%, Obama 74.23%, lost by 19,400

The numbers here speak for themselves. Between state workers, UAW, minorities, hipsters in Old Town, Cooley Law students, LCC Students,  and MSU Students, this seat is beyond safe D.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-69 – Safe D (68.37% for Singh)

2010 Demographics – 78.1% White, 5.5% Black, 10.2% Asian, 67.8% Obama 08

Covers East Lansing, Meridian Twp, and Williamstown Twp

2016 – Trump 28.94%, Hillary 66.11%, lost by 16000

2014 – Snyder 43.82%, Schauer 54.84%, lost by 3100

2012 – Romney 35.34%, Obama 63.82%, lost by 11700

2006 – DeVos 31.07%, Granholm 67.80%, lost by 12500

R’s last contested this a bit in 2000. The seat used to lean D back when Meridian Twp was a swing area and Williamstown Twp was solidly R. East Lansing back then outvoted them both.  After Bush won in 2000, this seat stampeded left. East Lansing is now sometimes more D than Lansing and Meridian Twp often breaks 60%D. As expected, this academia based district despised Trump even more than most R’s. Blowout city.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-70 –  Safe R (63.23% for Lower) (moved from Lean R)

2010 Demographics – 89.8% White, 50% Obama 08

Covers all of Montcalm County and Alma, Bethany Twp, Emerson Twp, Pine River Twp, Seville Twp, and

St Louis in Ithaca County.

2016 – Trump 61.76%, Hillary 31.61%, won by 10,500

2014 – Snyder 56.03%, Schauer 40.60%, won by 3500

2012 – Romney 52.50%, Obama 46.08%, won by 2100

2006 – DeVos  45.03%, Granholm 53.67%, lost by 2500

This is normally a light red rural and small town district that is more unionized than people think. A somewhat similar district (Montcalm and part of Ionia County) actually flipped in the 2008 D wave with a strong D candidate. We got it back in the 2010 wave.  I don’t know what to expect in 2018, so I’m calling it lean R based on the flip. Northern Ithaca County has a lot of state workers in corrections. Greenville in Montcalm County is most known for ground zero in NAFTA with the Electrolux plant closing. This is a blue collar lean R social conservative district. Alma is a small college town, which leans D, although Trump somehow won it after Obama took it twice and Snyder lost it.  St Louis leans D (union-corrections), but is winnable for R’s. Trump won that too and won the district big. This is just a dangerous enough district to have to work if the D’s run their best candidate (Mike Huckleberry).

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

Updated fundraising

Kresta Train (D) – Raised 3800, spent 2200, 1600 cash on hand

James Lower (R) – Raised 49K, Spent 35K, 25K cash on hand.

Updated analysis – Based on the dems having a late start, incumbency, and fundraising, I moved this to Safe R from lean. It was a border lean/safe district to begin with.

HD-71 – Tossup (54.04% for Barrett) (Tilt D)

2010 Demographics – 83.6% White, 7% Black, 53.9% Obama 08

Covers Bellevue Twp, Benton Twp, Carmel Twp, Charlotte, Chester Twp, Delta Twp, Eaton Rapids Twp,

Grand Ledge, Kalamo Twp, Portion of Lansing in Eaton County, Olivet, Oneida Twp, Potterville, Roxand Twp, Sunfield Twp, Vermontville Twp, Walton Twp, and Windsor Twp in Eaton County

2016 – Trump 48.08%, Hillary 45.73%, won by 1150

2014 – Snyder 48.39%, Schauer 49.79%, lost by 503

2012 – Romney 47.22%, Obama 51.56%, lost by 2100

2006 – DeVos 40.89%, Granholm 57.97%, lost by 6900

This district is ancestral R, but formerly swingish Delta Twp and Grand Ledge next to Lansing stampeded left. This district also has always been a bit temperamental in off years due to state workers which are all over the district. It’s been a very close district at the top of the ticket since 2000, and close downticket since 2012. We got lucky in 06/08 to have Sheriff Rick Jones as our candidate. The 2010 wave was good to us, and we lost the seat in 2012. Tom Barrett ran the campaign of his life to take this in 2014 despite Snyder actually being a drag on the ticket here due to the state workers.  The ideal candidate here is a pro-gun, pro-union, pro-state worker candidate. Sue Tabor and Rick Jones did great here. Tom Barrett is more conservative than the district, but he’s also a young Veteran who ran the campaign of his life twice. He’s running for Senate so this is an open seat (Lean R for Barrett, tossup for others). The way for R’s to win is to run up the score (lose more than 2 of those and it’s over) in the rural areas (Barrett did great there), win Charlotte (Barrett did that), go 50/50 in Grand Ledge (Barrett almost did that, opponent from Grand Ledge), and don’t get killed too badly in Delta Twp and the small part of Lansing (80%+ D – even more D than the Ingham portion) in this district. The difference between Snyder and Barrett in 2014 was that Barrett won Potterville (his home) and Windsor Twp, along with rural margins. Did it matter? It did for Barrett. He won by 148 instead of losing by 503. Irony is that Trump did worse than Snyder by percentage, but won the district. Trump did great in rural areas, won the areas Snyder lost, but got smoked in Delta while Snyder and Barrett got beat there instead of smoked. Romney lost Charlotte, Olivet, Potterville, and Windsor Twp as well as the normal R loss areas. DeVos hit a buzzsaw with state workers as well as the 2006 D wave.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated analysis – This is a dogfight of a race as expected. Barnes is a county commissioner. Witwer a political operative. Nobody’s going to concede this, especially with MI-7 and SD-24 overlapping.

Updated 10-28 – Still a dogfight, although the money edge is with the D’s. Tilt D with a gun to my head with the district trends, but Barrett and Rick Jones may get Christine Barnes past the finish line if we don’t get killed at the top of the ticket. Barrett beat an incumbent here even though Rick Snyder lost the district. Barnes isn’t a bad candidate and we have a chance.

HD-72 – Safe R (58.49% for Johnson)

2010 Demographics – 75.3% White, 10.3% Black, 6.6% Latino, 52.7% McCain

Covers Door Twp, Leighton Twp, Wayland, and Wayland Twp in Allegan County and Gaines Twp and

Kentwood in Kent County.

2016 – Trump 51.74%, Hillary 42.13%, won by 4500

2014 – Snyder 65.36%, Schauer 32.57%, won by 9000

2012 – Romney 56.23%, Obama 42.83%, won by 5900

2006 – DeVos 57.55%, Granholm 41.50%, won by 5200

This rural/suburban district South/Southeast of Grand Rapids is safe R, although Kentwood’s realignment will be increasingly a problem for R’s in POTUS elections (not governor elections as much). If the white population there empties out, we could have our West Michigan version of Southfield in 20 years. I don’t expect things to go that far as Grand Rapids isn’t Detroit, but there is a rapid major change in Kentwood and Wyoming. Bush won it easily. R’s lost it in POTUS races the last 3 elections, despite the Dutch vote. The good news is that even with Trump who struggled a bit with the West Michigan “Bush Republicans” and had a lot of 3rd party defections. Trump still won the Kent County portion of this district narrowly as Gaines Twp can counter Kentwood on its own for now. The Allegan portions leave no doubt as that’s 65%+ territory.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-73 – Safe R (63.72% for Afendoulis)

2010 Demographics – 93.2% White, 55.5% McCain

Covers Cannon Twp, Courtland Twp, East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, and Spencer Twp in Kent County.

2016 – Trump 55.53%, Hillary 38.73%, won by 9600

2014 – Snyder 67.46%, Schauer 30.56%, won by 13,900

2012 – Romney 60.92%, Obama 38.17%, won by 12,400

2006 – DeVos 56.19%, Granholm 42.92%, won by 6100

This rural/suburban district North/Northeast of Grand Rapids is safe R. East Grand Rapids is swingish and is the big money area of Metro Grand Rapids. The rest of the district is safe R. Plainfield Twp is the largest part of the district which is north of GR. Grand Rapids Twp is not to be confused with the city and is a suburban area bordering it to the northeast. The rest of the district is rural and this is one of the most Republican districts in Michigan (although a much different type of Republican district than East Michigan).  Trump did well in rural areas here, but struggled in the more Bushesque suburbs here. East GR was a disaster. Grand Rapids Twp was too close for comfort (52-43) and Plainfield Twp wasn’t as good as it should be (56-37). 56% in Plainfield is usually a statewide loss. It’s like 56% in Livingston County like McCain got. Bad.  It won’t put the district in danger, but big margins are needed here for county and state races.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-74 – Safe R (64.50% for VerHeulen)

2010 Demographics – 88.9% White, 5.8% Latino, 55.1% McCain

Covers Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Cedar Springs, Grandville, Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparta Twp, Tyrone Twp, and Walker in Kent County.

2016 – Trump  58.80%, Hillary 34.41%, won by 11,500

2014 – Snyder 66.11%, Schauer 31.47%, won by 10,100

2012 – Romney 60.38%, Obama 38.55%, won by 9800

2006 – DeVos 57.46%, Granholm 41.52%, won by 5950

This surburban/rural/small town district covers the area West and Northwest of Grand Rapids. Solidly R (but not overwhelmingly so) Walker is the main suburb in this district along with deep red Grandville and light R Alpine Twp and Rockford (known for its High School football program).  There were a LOT of 3rd party defections in this district in the 2016 elections. Both Trump and Hillary bled heavily here.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-75 – Safe D (76.39% for LaGrand)

2010 Demographics – 44.4% White, 25.6% Black, 25.1% Latino, 76.7% Obama 08

Covers part of the City of Grand Rapids in Kent County

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-76 – Safe D (56.72% for Brinks)

2010 Demographics – 73.1% White, 14.8% Black, 6.3% Latino, 57.3% Obama 08

Covers part of the City of Grand Rapids in Kent County

These two districts were a gerrymander  that backfired (gamesmanship that also nearly lost us Bolger’s district). The crazy shaped 76th next door was meant to be a tossup district. To do that, the 75th was bluesinked.  I didn’t numbercrunch GR, because it’s I think it’s too far gone to pick off the 76th outside of a great R year. It couldn’t be done even in 2014. The 76th is shaped liked a reverse C outside the outer edge of the city.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated analysis – I don’t see GR as anything but Safe R. Too many conservative whites left the city to be replaced by hipster types.

Updated 10-28 – I’m at borderline safe/lean D. Amanda Brand’s fundraising is impressive at 72K and leading, but this isn’t the Grand Rapids of 2000. I need to see evidence of bleeding stopped before I move a GR district outside of Safe D. If it was 100K, I may call it lean D.

Grand Rapids  Overall (both districts combined)

2016 – Trump 30.15%, Hillary 62.87%, lost by 27,300

2014 – Snyder 46.72%, Schauer 50.70%, lost by 1700

2012 – Romney 35.73%, Obama 63%, lost by 22,000

2006 – DeVos 40.07%, Granholm 58.81%, lost by 12,400

HD-77 – Safe R (65.80% for Brann)

2010 Demographics – 73.1% White, 5.5% Black, 16.1% Latino, 54.1% McCain

Covers Byron Twp and Wyoming in Kent County

2016 – Trump – 54.16%, Hillary 39.18%, won by 6500

2014 – Snyder – 66.23%, Schauer 31.46%, won by 8900

2012 – Romney – 58.32%, Obama 40.65%, won by 7300

2006 – DeVos – 59.10%, Granholm 40.00%, won by 6200

This is a suburban district that has had Kent County’s largest suburb in Wyoming which is slightly less than 3/4 of the district with the other part being blood red Byron Township just to the south of Wyoming. Wyoming, like Kentwood is going to be a trouble spot down the road. Wyoming has a smaller black population than Kentwood, but has a high Latino population. Byron Township keeps this district safe, since it’s around 70%R. Even Trump got 68% there and won it by 5500. That’s considered bad. Trump won Wyoming as well by 1100, which is something McCain did not to. This district is one to watch in the future, but I don’t see it being competitive next year. 10 years from now, probably.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-78 – Safe R (67.51% for Pagel)

2010 Demographics – 84.8% White, 5.8% Black, 5% Latino, 50.3% Obama 08

Covers Baroda Twp, Berrien Twp, Bertrand Twp, Buchanan, Buchanan Twp, Chikaming Twp, Galien Twp

New Buffalo, New Buffalo Twp, Niles, Niles Twp, Oronko Twp, Pipestone Twp, Sodus Twp, Three Oaks Twp, and Weesaw Twp in Berrien County and Howard Twp, Milton Twp, Ontwa Twp, and Silver Creek Twp in Cass County.

2016 – Trump 58.94%, Hillary 35.33%, won by 9800

2014 – Snyder 56.27%, Schauer 40.12%, won by 3800

2012 – Romney 56.00%, Obama 42.68%, won by 5300

2006 – DeVos 50.97%, Granholm 47.90%, won by 839

Berrien County has been on my radar for awhile. It’s one of the four counties in Michigan I see most influenced by Chicago (others being Van Buren, Grand Traverse, and Leelanau). New Buffalo is about 60 miles or so from Chicago. It’s also VERY influenced by South Bend which is practically next door to Niles in the SE part of the county. Trump did very well in most of this Berrien district (outside New Buffalo), even winning D leaning Niles. Most of the rural areas in Eastern Berrien County an Western Cass County are safe R.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-79 – Safe R (58.78% for LaSata)

2010 Demographics – 71.1% White, 21.5% Black, 52.5% Obama 08

Covers Bainbridge Twp, Benton Harbor, Benton Twp, Bridgman, Coloma, Coloma Twp, Hagar Twp

Lake Twp, Lincoln Twp, Royalton Twp, St Joseph, St Joseph Twp, Watervliet, and Watervliet Twp in Berrien County.

2016 – Trump 51.38%, Hillary 43.62%, won by 3300

2014 – Snyder 55.88%, Schauer 41.75%, won by 3600

2012 – Romney 51.35%, Obama 47.71%, won by 1500

2006 – DeVos 53.21%, Granholm 45.49%, won by 2300

I almost put this as lean R. It’s borderline safe/lean R despite the Obama 08 numbers. We kept this seat in 2008 with the Obama wave and skyhigh turnout in Benton Harbor and Benton Twp.  I see a path D’s could take to win here (a moderate D with sky-high black appeal in the city), but Romney and Trump both won the district so I’m keeping as safe. It’s a battle of the bases district for the most part with the mostly blood red suburbs (and lean R unless it is Trump St Joe) and rural areas outvoting Benton Harbor. I was surprised Trump did slightly better than Romney here because he did not do well in St Joe (which he lost) or the other suburbs (he won easily, but ran behind Romney) like Royalton Twp and Lincoln Twp. He did do less worse in Benton Harbor and Benton Twp however and ran up the score in the rural areas.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-80 – Safe R (67.41% for Whiteford)

2010 Demographics 88.7% White, 7.6% Latino, 52.9% McCain

Covers all of Allegan County except Door Twp, Leighton Twp, Wayland, and Wayland Twp.

2016 – Trump 59.79%, Hillary 33.95%, won by 11800

2014 – Snyder 64.47%, Schauer 32.83%, won by 9100

2012 – Romney 57.55%, Obama 41.13%, won by 7100

2006 – DeVos 53.99%, Granholm 44.76%, won by 3400

Allegan County has a small D base, quite a few swingish rural areas in its southern tier, and a blood red northern Dutch tier that is among the most R area in the entire country that makes this district safe R. Overisel Twp is a rural township that voted 84% for Trump and goes over 80% each election for R’s.  Part of Holland is in the district as is suburban Laketown Twp. The southern tier has more union ties and a higher minority population. Trump won these areas too – which Romney did not. Allegan and Fennville leans D.  Lee Twp is usually safe D. Plainwell, Clyde Twp, and Otsego are swingish. They all went for Trump. Fennville shocked me since its 40% Latino. The only area Trump lost was the gay capitol of West Michigan. Saugatuck and Douglas. They don’t vote like Ferndale there, but it’s still safe D.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-81 – Safe R (68.96% for Lauwers)

2010 Demographics – 94.8% White, 50.2% McCain

Covers Algonac, Berlin Twp, Brockway Twp, China Twp, Clay Twp, Clyde Twp, Cottrellville Twp, East China Twp, Emmett Twp, Grant Twp, Greenwood Twp, Lynn Twp, Marine City, Marysville City, Mussey Twp, Port Huron Twp, St Clair, St Clair Twp, Yale

2016 – Trump 65.64%, Hillary 29.24%, won by 12800

2014 – Snyder 56.51%, Schauer 40.77%, won by 4800

2012 – Romney 54.94%, Obama 43.86%, won by 4500

2006 – DeVos 51.22%, Granholm 47.13%, won by 1400

I always had one rule. Nothing is 100% safe in the Thumb or Macomb County since the populism is so high. That also applies to Shiawassee County, NE Lower Michigan, and the UP. That said, until I see indicators otherwise like another Terry Brown, John Espinoza, or Jim Barcia level of candidate, I’ll consider this safe for now. D’s had a more R (on paper) district in the 90’s here and David Bonior won here as a congressman. Even DeVos and McCain won it in bad years, so I think we’ll be okay here. Romney wasn’t the best fit here, but did quite well compared to previous R’s. I think North Macomb’s movement to the township here help the R’s. Marine City and Port Huron Twp lean D for non Trump candidates, and D’s are capable of winning Marysville and Algonac in bad years.  The City of Port Huron is in a different district, so that helps this seat. This seat, as does most of the thumb, have a lot of Trump Democrats.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-82 – Safe R (68.95% for Howell)

2010 Demographics – 93% White, 50.3% McCain

Covers all Lapeer County

2016 – Trump 66.48%, Hillary 28.18%, won by 17300

2014 – Snyder 57.46%, Schauer 39.20%, won by 5400

2012 – Romney 55.19%, Obama 43.60%, won by 5000

2006 – DeVos 52.33%, Granholm 45.78%, won by 2300

Lapeer County has moved significantly to the right form what it used to be although the movement has been delayed by the housing crisis (now recovering some) D’s have won here downticket in the 90’s. I think the big reason for the change is Oakland and Macomb County residents moving to its southern tier. Those southern three townships on the border are some of the most blood red areas in the county.  While my “thumb” rule applies when it comes to safe districts, it does here to a lesser extent. Even Todd Courser – a disaster candidate (loose cannon even before his scandal) – won his general election. He was expelled and lost his comeback big, so luckily we have Gary Howell running for re-election instead.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-83 – Safe R (62.79% for Hernandez)

2010 Demographics – 89.8% White, 51.8% Obama 08

Covers Burtchville Twp, Fort Gratiot Twp, and the City of Port Huron in St Clair County, along with all of n

Sanilac County

2016 – Trump – 60.75%, Hillary 33.31%, won by 10500

2014 – Snyder – 56.85%, Schauer 40.00%, won by 4200

2012 – Romney – 52.46%, Obama 46.36%, won by 2200

2006 – DeVos – 50.46%, Granholm 47.84%, won by 817

This is a usually Lean R (esp with my thumb rule) district I’m calling safe based on an exceptional candidate in the incumbent Shane Hernandez.  Shane’s a hard worker and in very good shape for re-election even if the D’s send their best. Sanilac County is (outside of John Espinoza) a base R county overall. Almost all R’s get about 60% or more consistently there. The St Clair County portion has R leaning (mostly) Butchville and Fort Gratiot Twps, along with strongly union D leaning (mostly) City of Port Huron. About 50% of the district is Sanilac County which gives this area the R leaning. Port Huron is about 30% of the district. Trump and Shane Hernandez both won Port Huron. Obama got 59% there. D’s had this seat in the mid-late 2000s with John Espinoza (a popular police officer in Sanilac County) so this seat is winnable for them. Espinoza actually won Sanilac County as well as Port Huron in his wins.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-84 – Safe R (65.04% for Canfield) (Moved Safe R 10-28)

2010 Demographics – 95% White, 49.3% McCain

Covers all of Huron and Tuscola Counties

2016 – Trump 66.63%, Hillary 28.77%, won by 15,700

2014 – Snyder 58.57%, Schauer 41.15%, won by 5000

2012 – Romney 55.55%, Obama 43.25%, won by 5100

2006 – DeVos 47.91%, Granholm 50.64%, lost by 1007

Like the 83rd, this is a borderline safe/lean R district. I have this as Lean R because of ticketsplitting tradition in the thumb, along with Terry Brown’s win in the 2000’s. I know less about Canfield than I do Shane Hernandez.  This is a populist pro-gun area that loves outsider politicians and after that union moderates. Mike Green (social conservative moderate R) held this seat for years. Terry Brown (pro-gun D) also held this seat. Trump’s message played very well here.  Interesting that Snyder did great in more agricultural Huron, but was generic R in the more union based Tuscola County. Usually, both counties are close.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican (Moved to Strong R 10-18)

Updated analysis – I’ll keep this as lean/safe border. Shoop and Green don’t have a lot of money. Green however raised it and got through a very difficult primary. Shoop has no excuse. Phil Green is Mike’s son, and there is a lot of goodwill towards State Senator Mike Green, especially from the 2nd Amendment community.

Updated 10-28 – Green’s got this. Shoop went above the reporting waiver, but raised/spent less than 3300. Safe R.

HD-85 – Safe R (56.21% for Frederick) (Moved from Tossup and later moved from lean R)

2010 Demographics – 95.1% White, 52.6% Obama 08

Covers in Saginaw County and all of Shiawassee County

2016 – Trump 57.88%, Hillary 35.57%, won by 10100

2014 – Snyder 50.45%, Schauer 46.34%, won by 1300

2012 – Romney 48.74%, Obama 49.77%, lost by 464

2006 – DeVos 42.25%, Granholm 56.25%, lost by 5500

This is a borderline leanR/Tossup district. Don’t let the Trump numbers fool you here. Shiawassee County is prone to major swings and went for Obama twice….and also voted for  who often wins “most conservative” in the State Senate,  Joe Hune in 2010. Rick Jones, R’s for congress, and R’s for state rep also won here going back to 1998. It’s a very difficult county to predict as it is largely a commuter county to Flint, Lansing, Saginaw, or a lesser extent, Livingston County. The 85th in all its forms has been a battleground for years going back to the 1998 upset win by the R’s. Ben Fredrick rode the Trump wave in 2016. I think his incumbency will help him. The parts of rural Saginaw County in this district are generally similar to Shiawassee County culturally. There’s a lot of social moderate-conservative union areas. Richland Twp is a strong R base in the part of Saginaw County in the district. Maple Grove Twp and Chesaning Twp (union) right next door to one another are the D base in the Saginaw portion of the district. The rest is usually very close either way.  Trump won that portion 62-32%. Snyder won it 50-46%. Romney 53-46%, and DeVos lost it 43-55%. Shiawassee went for Trump, Snyder, Obama, and Granholm.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated analysis – I moved this seat to Lean R from tossup due to fundraising and incumbency. Shiawassee County won’t be safe for a long time, but it takes a lot of work to win there. I’m not sure Sabin has what it takes with 3K Cash on hand and being a 20 something without a farm background in an old school conservadem type of district.

Updated 10-28 – Going with logic instead of gut feeling, I’m moving this to Safe R due to fundraising and incumbency strength. Shiawassee County still scares me however.

HD-86 – Safe R (59.79% for Albert)

2010 Demographics – 89.9% White, 57.7% McCain

Covers Belding, Easton Twp, Ionia, Ionia Twp, Orleans Twp, and Otisco Twp in Ionia County. Covers Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cascade Twp, Grattan Twp, Lowell , Lowell Twp, and Vergennes Twp in Kent County

2016 – Trump 58.61%, Hillary 34.93%, won by 11,500

2014 – Snyder 69.66%, Schauer 28.36%, won by 13300

2012 – Romney 62.98%, Obama 36.00%, won by 12500

2006 – DeVos 58.61%, Granholm 40.35%, won by 7200

This safe district covers mostly Northern Ionia County (slight R lean) and blood red suburban and rural Southeastern Kent County. There’s a lot of state workers in the Ionia County portion with the prisons. Most of the district is in Kent County. Trump won the Ionia portion 59-33, Snyder won it 54-43, Romney by 50 votes, and DeVos lost it 57-42. DeVos won the Kent part 63-36. Romney won it 66-33. Snyder won it 73-25. Trump struggled in the Grand Rapids suburbs (Ada, Cascade) winning by a lower than expected number. Still, this is a safe district and shouldn’t be in danger anytime soon.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-87 – Safe R (67.07% for Calley)

2010 Demographics – 95.2% White, 54.2% McCain

Covers all of Barry County and Berlin Twp, Boston Twp, Campbell Twp, Danby Twp, Keene Twp,  Lyons Twp, North Plains Twp, Odessa Twp, Orange Twp, Portland, Portland Twp, Ronald Twp, and Sebewa Twp in Ionia County.

2016 – Trump 63.47%, Hillary 30.04%, won by 16,000

2014 – Snyder 62.15%, Schauer 34.97%, won by 8800

2012 – Romney 58.63%, Obama 39.97%, won by 8400

2006 – DeVos 50.26%, Granholm 48.31%, won by 780

This is a safe district. Barry and Ionia Counties were much more friendly to Trump than other parts of West Michigan closer to Grand Rapids and Holland. Swingish Hastings is the center of Barry County between Grand Rapids, Lansing, Battle Creek, and Kalamazoo. Ionia County is social conservative with a bit of a union tradition with the prison. Trump did very well here, as do most R’s, even winning strongly D North Plains Twp. He struggled a bit in Portland, likely due to Lansing commuters who don’t work at the prison. He still won it, however. Portland here is not to be confused with the cities in Oregon and Maine.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-88 – Safe R (75.06% for Victory)

2010 Demographics – 92.7% White, 67.1% McCain

Covers Allendale Twp, Chester Twp, Coopersville, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County.

2016 – Trump 68.13%,Hillary 25.65%, won by 21,000

2014 – Snyder 77.35%, Schauer 21.12%, won by 16,700

2012 – Romney 72.70%, Obama 26.34%, won by 20,100

2006 – DeVos 70.39%, Granholm 28.74%, won by 15,300

Possibly the most R district in the state. This is one of three Ottawa County based districts. This one covers the central east and northeast parts of the county close to Grand Rapids. Trump struggled here largely due to Allendale (part of Grand Valley State University) and Georgetown Twp  (suburban Grand Rapids).  Some of that was masked by population growth. He ran about 6% behind Romney there and ran 4% behind him districtwide because of that. He still got 63% in Allendale and 69% in Georgetown so he didn’t do bad there, just bad for a normal Republican that gets closer to the 75% range there. I believe Georgetown Twp is the largest municipality in the county with 46,000 people, although Holland Township has about the same population (more than the city).

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-89 – Safe R (61.14% for Lilly)

2010 Demographics – 91.7% White, 55.4% McCain

Covers Blendon Twp, Crockery Twp, Ferrysburg , Grand Haven, Grand Haven Twp, Olive Twp, Park Twp, Port Sheldon Twp, Robinson Twp, and Spring Lake in Ottawa County.

2016 – Trump 57.58%, Hillary 36.11%, won by 11,000

2014 – Snyder 68.39%, Schauer 29.48% won by 13,000

2012 – Romney 61.45%, Obama 37.50%, won by 11,500

2006 – DeVos 56.86%, Granholm 42.07% won by 6,000

This covers the western and northwestern Ottawa County along with Blendon Twp in Central Ottawa County. It’s safe R, although the D’s often win Grand Haven.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-90 – Safe R (72.86% for Garcia)

2010 Demographics – 73.5% White, 17.4% Latino, 5.1% Asian, 61.5% McCain

Covers Holland, Holland Twp, Hudsonville, Jamestown Twp, Zeeland , and Zeeland twp in Ottawa County.

2016  – Trump 60.44%, Hillary 32.49%, won by 12,300

2014 – Snyder 76.14%, Schauer 22.02%, won by 14,200

2012 – Romney  66.28%, Obama 32.53%, won by 13,800

2006 – Devos 69.22%, Granholm 29.77%, won by 12,500

This covers the southernmost part of Ottawa County. Due to minority population increase, Holland is now a swing area. Hillary won it. Romney barely won it.  Holland Township is about 30% minority, but still is strongly R with the Dutch vote. Trump got 57% there compared to Romney’s 62%. Zeeland had major 3rd party defections. The rest was still 70%+ territory for R’s, although R’s used to get 80%+ in Hudsonville, Jamestown Twp, and Zeeland Twp.  There was significant third party bleeding here.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-91 – Tossup (49.34% for Hughes) (Tilt R)

2010 Demographics – 91% White, 56.3% Obama

Covers Blue Lake Twp, Casnovia Twp, Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, Fruitport Twp, Holton Twp, Montague, Montague Twp, Moorland Twp, Norton Shores, Ravenna Twp,Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, White River twp, and Whitehall in Muskegon County

2016 – Trump 54.08%, Hillary 39.54%, won by 6300 votes

2014 – Snyder 53.08%, Schauer 43.86%, won by 2600 votes

2012 – Romney 48.38%, Obama 50.37%, lost by 800 votes

2006 – DeVos 40.78%, Granholm 58.20%, lost by 5900 votes

While Trump did very well here, this is the most swingiest district in Michigan and has changed very little over the years. R’s won it in 98 by 1800, 2000 by 2900, 2002 by 442, and 2004 by 1800. D’s took it in 2006 by 4200 and kept it in 2008 by 3400 against current rep Holly Hughes. Hughes won in 2010 by  3400. She lost in 2012 by 333. She won in 2014 by 53 votes. She won in 2016 by 2400. Muskegon County is the most unionized and most democrat in West Michigan. Muskegon is solidly democrat. It’s suburbs can go either way.  Norton Shores to the south and North Muskegon have a bit more money. The eastern townships are more working class.

Trump won everywhere except Roosevelt Park. Don’t count that being normal. Snyder only lost Roosevelt Park, Montague, and Egelston Twp. Romney lost several areas including key area of Norton Shores. DeVos hit the 2006 buzz saw.  This district is one of those must win districts for anyone who wants to wins statewide.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis – This district has probably flipped more times than any other since 2006. Greg’s father Jerry used to represent the area from 99-2010 (House, later Senate). He also had his own career working for Pete Hoekstra  and Bill Huizenga. The cash advantage helps, although this district tends to go with the state results. I’m not counting the R’s out here, however.

Updated 10-28 – My toughest tilt call. This seat flipped often. I’ll go Tilt R due on fundraising, Trump’s strength, and name recognition as Jerry Van Woerkom is the father of Greg who knows how to campaign in difficult districts. 

HD-92 – Safe D (68.20% for Sabo)

2010 Demographics – 63.5% White, 26.7% Black, 5.8% Latino, 72.5% Obama 08

Covers Fruitland Twp, Laketon Twp, Muskegon, Muskegon Heights, Muskegon Twp, North Muskegon, and Whitehall in Muskegon County.

2016 – Trump 36.29%, Hillary 58.09%, lost by 7600

2014 – Snyder 38.24%, Schauer 58.99%, lost by 4400

2012 – Romney 31.28%, Obama 67.78%, lost by 12,700

2006 – DeVos 28.97%, Granholm 70.03%, lost by 11,700

Muskegon and Muskgeon Heights put this district out of reach. The former is a union stronghold that is about 40-45% minority, including 35% black. Muskegon Heights is 78% black. Trump and Snyder did well here. What helped Snyder was a lower black turnout in the mid term. What helped Trump was getting a lot of crossover labor D’s. He won everywhere except Muskegon itself and Muskegon Heights. He got almost 26% in the former and 4.91% in the latter. 4.91% sounds terrible although Romney got 3.16%. If you keep the D’s under 60% here, it’s good shape for statewide. Everywhere except Muskegon and Muskegon Heights is winnable for R’s with the exception of non-Trump candidates in Muskegon Township.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-93 – Lean R (62.05% for Leonard)

2010 Demographics – 91,2% White, 49.5% Obama 08

Covers all of Clinton County and Arcada Twp, Elba Twp, Fulton Twp, Hamilton Twp, Ithaca, Lafayette Twp, New Haven Twp, Newark Twp, North Shade Twp, North Star Twp, Sumner Twp, Washington Twp, and Wheeler Twp in Gratiot County.

2016 – Trump 55.07%, Hillary 38.90%, won by 7900

2014 – Snyder 54.36%, Schauer 43.92%, won by 3500

2012 – Romney 52.80%, Obama 46.17%, won by 3100

2010 – DeVos 44.69%, Granholm 54.13%, lost by 3400

Clinton County’s a formerly base R county which has moved a bit to the left over the past 20 years although there’s still a bit of a social conservative streak there. That’s largely due to three reasons. One is state workers. Two is East Lansing. Three is Lansing. DeWitt Twp borders Lansing and East Lansing to the north. Part of East Lansing is in Clinton County and it is growing. Bath Twp borders East Lansing. DeWitt, Bath, and St Johns all have a lot of state workers. DeWitt and Bath Twp’s also have some student housing (although much of that is in East Lansing part of Clinton County).  East Lansing’s City Government has never been student friendly in the time I’m familiar with it (and I went to MSU more years ago than I care to admit). They pushed some major student high rises out to the northern edge of the city. North on Abbot Rd when it turns into Chandler Rd, you can see where Obama won Clinton County in 2008. 2002 should have been the warning shot when Posthumus barely beat Granholm in Clinton County. 2004 gave a false sense of security. 2006 was a disaster. 2008 was as well.

Trump’s 53% in Clinton County was good. He won DeWitt Twp surprisingly. He also won St Johns. He did lose DeWitt city narrowly and got beat pretty bad in Bath Twp with only 42% there.  He was smoked 586-224 in the East Lansing precinct that has 841 votes. Snyder got 54.76% and did well except in Duplain Twp which he lost. I assume it was due to state workers. He didn’t do as well as Trump in the base R parts of the county, but didn’t lose anywhere except the East Lansing portion.  Romney got 52.63% in the county, winning DeWitt City, but losing the township narrowly. He also got 44% in Bath Twp, lost Victor Twp, lost Duplain Twp, and lost the East Lansing portion about 2-1. 2006 was a buzzsaw across the board in Clinton County.

Gratiot County is largely farmland, Alma College, a prison, and a county most drive through on their way up north or to CMU in neighboring Isabella County. There’s a lot of windmills near US-127. Trump got 64% overall in the Gratiot County portion, sweeping the entire part that’s in the district. Snyder only got 52% in the Gratiot County portion, losing several municipalities. Romney got 53.60% in the Gratiot County portion losing Ithaca and Sumner Twp.  2006 was a buzzsaw here.

Overall this district should be ours, but it could be trouble in a bad year. State workers always vote.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

Updated analysis – I’m at the lean R/safe R border here. Clinton County isn’t safe and it’s an open seat. State workers are big here as well. Losing the straight ticket option helps us immensely in Bath Twp.

Updated 10-28 – Moved to Safe R due to fundraising, the two Toms (Leonard and Barrett) campaigning, and the R tilt most years in this district.

HD-94 – Safe R (64.76% for Kelly)

2010 Demographics – 86.6% White, 5.2% Black, 51.7% McCain

Covers Albee Twp, Birch Run Twp, Blumfield Twp, Frankenmuth, Frankenmuth Twp, Saginaw Twp, St Charles Twp, Swan Creek Twp, Taymouth Twp,

Thomas Twp, and Tittabawassee Twp in Saginaw County.

2016 – Trump 57.66%, Hillary 37.44%, won by 9400

2014 – Snyder 56.34%, Schauer 41.72%, won by 5100

2012 – Romney 55.59%, Obama 43.51%, won by 6000

2006 – DeVos 45.76%, Granholm 53.09%, lost by 3100

This is a safe/lean R border. I’m calling it safe since it has both major R base areas in Saginaw County. The old 94th was a swing district (with Chesaning and Bridgeport) that flipped in I believe the mid 90’s that was more based in Southern Saginaw County. I’m not 100% sure, but I think it was where Mike Goschka upset Lew Dodak, the then D Speaker of the House. Population shrinkage has done a number overall on Saginaw County.  About 1/2 of old Dodak county is in the 85th now. The 94th has most of the base R areas of Saginaw County as well as swingish to tilt R Saginaw Twp along with the rural traditional moderate D areas of Birch Run (less so Birch Run which has flipped outside of wave years), St Charles, Albee, and Taymouth Twp which was the old Dodak territory.  It does not include the dark blue areas of the county which are in the 95th. This does include the base R Frankenmuth area SE of Saginaw, and the base R Northwest suburban/rural areas. I believe the NW suburbs were not in the old Dodak district, while Frankenmuth probably was. Frankenmuth is a very religious German Lutheran area. “Little Bavaria.”  While there’s a few heavily religious German areas (Western Clinton County especially) in Michigan, this is the tourist area. Bronner’s Christmas. Bavarian Inn, and Zehnder’s is the main attraction.

This district is Trump Country outside of Saginaw Twp (suburban, not to be confused with the City) and to a lesser extent Frankenmuth. Even the normally lean D areas like Albee Twp went big for Trump (58%). Trump only won Saginaw Twp by 810 votes, which was a slight improvement over Romney’s 600 vote spread. The outer rural/suburban mixed areas like Thomas Twp and Tittabawassee Twp were Trump’s best areas. 61%+ and an overperformance. Trump ran slightly behind Romney in Frankenmuth, likely due to character matters. He got 69% and 74% there compared to Romney’s 73% and 76%. Those were third party bleeds. Trump made up for it with 80% in demographically similar Blumfield Twp.  Snyder lost all of Dodak territory outside of Birch Run.  He won Saginaw Twp by about 1000 votes, and won Tittabawassee Twp and Thomas Twp big, but not Trump margins.

This seat could be vulnerable in a collapse. In 2006, we were swept here at the top of the ticket, even in the base R areas with the exception of the Frankenmuth area (City, Twp, Blumfield Twp). Ken Horn hung on to a similar district by about 3000 votes that year. The D’s competed for the seat as well that year.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

HD-95 – Safe D (73.87% for Guerra)

2010 Demograhics – 47.8% White, 37% Black, 12% Latino, 73.9% Obama 08

Covers Bridgeport Twp, Buena Vista Twp, Carrollton Twp, James Twp, Kochville Twp, The City of Saginaw, Spaulding Twp, Zilwaukee, and Zilwaukee Twp in Saginaw County

2016 – Trump 29.76%, Hillary 66.46%, lost by 12,300

2014 – Snyder 26.59%, Schauer 71.10%, lost by 10,500

2012 – Romney 24.72%, Obama 74.31%, lost by 18,400

2006 – DeVos 24.77%, Granholm 74.05%, lost by 14,600

This district covers the D base of Saginaw County. This district used to be plurality black, but population shrinkage in the City of Saginaw and Buena Vista Twp pushed the borders out into more suburban territory. It’s now a white plurality district that is majority-minority.  The old Dodak seat had strongly D Bridgeport Twp. That’s now in this district. James and Kochville townships lean R, but are outvoted by the rest of the district that leans D, although Trump won Spaulding Twp and Zilwaukee. He had a respectable loss in the rest of the district, as strange as it looks with the numbers. Trump broke 20% in Saginaw. Romney had 18%. He got 16% in Buena Vista Twp. Romney had 12%.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-96 – Safe D. (57.98% for Elder)

2010 Demographics – 90.0% White, 5.3% Latino, 58.0% Obama 08

Covers Bangor Twp, Bay City, Essexville, Frankenlust Twp, Hampton Twp, Kawkawlin Twp, Merritt Twp, Monitor Twp, and Portsmouth Twp in Bay County.

2016 – Trump 51.46%, Hillary 43.07%, won by 3600

2014 -Snyder 46.13%, Schauer 51.03%, lost by 1500

2012 – Romney 45.28%, Obama 53.68%, lost by 3500

2006 – DeVos 36.83%, Granholm 61.73%, lost by 9200

I can’t quite move this to lean D. It’s worth a fight, but I need to see it to believe it due to the downticket strength. This is somewhat like the 109th District in the UP or the Clinton Twp based district in Macomb County. It prefers independent minded moderate union democrats. It’s moving our way. Until very recently,  Bay County has mirrored Saginaw County for years in its voting despite different demographics. The difference is that Bay has few base R areas. The suburbs and rural areas of Bay County are traditionally social conservative D’s. This is Jim Barcia’s base area. Most D electeds here are of the Jim Barcia variety. Socially conservative, moderately populist. Pro-2nd Amendment. Pro-life. As D’s move culturally left, it has hurt them here. Romney is a bad fit for Bay County, but he did better than Bush.

Of this district, Bush won Frankenlust Twp, Merrit Twp, and Monitor Twp. That’s it. Romney won those, but also took Kawkawin Twp. Snyder, Mr. Right to Work, took those, but also took Bangor and Monitor Twps. Trump took everything but Bay City. Even in Bay City, he got 43% instead of the normal 35% The suburbs of Bay City are moving our way, which makes this district winnable IF the inroads in Bay City continue. If Trump got Romney’s numbers in Bay City, he still would have won the district by 2%. Essexville, Hampton Twp, and Portsmouth Twp, are still D leaning as well as far as I’m concerned as Trump is the only R to win those.  This district is winnable with the normal R margins in Bay City, but only if those three get Trump numbers.  Essexville was 48% Trump (win), Hampton 50%, and Portsmouth 53%. There’s a path to win here, but Elder survived the Trump train.

Update – GONGWER Rating – Strong Democratic

HD-97 – Safe R (64.85% for Wentworth)

2010 Demographics – 96.1% White, 49.9% Obama 08

Covers Arenac County, Clare County, Gladwin County, and Evart, Evart Twp, Hersey Twp, Highland Twp, Marion Twp, Middle Branch Twp, Orient Twp, Osceola Twp, Sheman Twp, and Sylvan Twp in Osceola County.

2016 – Trump 65.06%, Hillary 30.24%, won by 13,600

2014 – Snyder 52.44%, Schauer 43.73%, won by 2300

2012 – Romney 53.14%, Obama 45.48%, won by 3000

2006 – DeVos 47.10%, Granholm 51.11%, lost by 1400

This is one I hesitated to put as safe based on some past history, but I think it’s moved our way enough to do so. The D’s had a similar populist district in the 2000’s until Tim Moore beat Jennifer Elkins over the gay marriage issue in 2004. Moore then held this seat during the buzzsaw elections. The only way I see this district flipping is a 2006 buzzsaw with a bad candidate.  Social issues killed the D’s here.

Arenac County along the I-75 corridor is traditionally union democrat and almost an extension of the rural portion of Bay County. Bush lost it twice.  Romney finally flipped it in 2012. Trump carried it easily with 64.32%. Clare County along the US-127 corridor is a swing-populist area also moving our way slowly.  Trump won it easily with 63.52% Gladwin is a rural area home to a prison and is west of Arenac and Clare Counties. It’s slightly more R usually, although winnable for D’s. Trump got 65.14% there . Osceola County is a base R county overall.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-98 – Lean R (60.16% for Glenn) (Moved from Strong R)

2010 Demographics – 93.2% White, 49.8% McCain 08

Covers Auburn, Beaver Twp, Fraser Twp, Garfield Twp, Gibson Twp, Midland (Bay part), Mount Forest Twp, Pinconning, Pinconning Twp, and Williams Twp in Bay County. Covers Homer Twp, Jerome Twp,

Larkin Twp, Lee Twp, Lincoln Twp, Midland and, Midland Twp in Midland County.

2016 – Trump 55.98%, Hillary 37.36%, won by 8200

2014 – Snyder 58.99%, Schauer 38.50%, won by 7300

2012 – Romney 56.03%, Obama 43.00%, won by 5800

2010 – DeVos 47.25%, Granholm 51.30%, lost by 1500

Midland is one of the few central cities that still lean R. It’s most known for Dow Chemical.  DeVos barely won the Midland Portion of the district, although he did lose the city. Romney and Snyder were good fits for the Midland area and did very well there. Romney got 57% in that portion of the district and Snyder 62.10%. Trump was held to 54% in the Midland part of the district. He did excellent in the rural and suburban parts of Midland County, but only got 49% in Midland itself (usually about 54% R) with heavy 3rd party defections.

The Bay County Portion of the district is historically D moving our way. DeVos had only 40% there, but Romney won it with 52% and Snyder won it with 49%. Trump got almost 62% there.  This is the rural western and northern part of the county, most similar to Arenac County.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Update 10-28 – This one is off my radar, but fundraising shows Sarah Schulz with a fundraising edge over Annette Glenn. The D’s went for this due to their hatred for outspoken Gary Glenn in the past. They are doing the same again except going after his wife. Heir force candidates don’t always go over well. Trump struggled compared to most R’s in Midland County. I don’t see this flipping, but I can’t discount $112K+ fundraising either. When you hit 6 digits in a state house race, I notice. 

HD-99 – Tossup (54.55% for Hauck) (Tilt R)

2010 Demographics – 89.3% White, 56% Obama 08

Covers all of Isabella County and Coleman, Edenville Twp, Geneva Twp, Greendale Twp, Hope Twp,

Ingersoll Twp, Jasper Twp, Mills Twp, Mount Haley Twp, Porter Twp, and Warren Twp in Midland County.

2016 – Trump  52.76%, Hillary 40.89%, won by 4100

2014 – Snyder 50.83%, Schauer 45.81%, won by 1100

2012 – Romney 48.05%, Obama 50.75%, lost by 900

2006 – DeVos 43.33%, Granholm  55.04%, lost by 3100

Trump shockingly to me won Isabella County which has been D for POTUS since 1992. Isabella County is D largely because of Mt Pleasant and Central Michigan University. This district has been ours for a long time, but we’ve dodged several bullets. In 98, R’s won by 1037 in a similar district. In 2000 it was 948. D’s tried hard again in 2014 in the current version and lost by 668. The Midland County part of the district is base R outside of a buzzsaw year like 2006 and saved us in 2014. Trump got 48.59% in Isabella County which was enough to win. Snyder got  48.86% in a win. Romney only got 44.78% against Obama.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated Analysis  – On paper this is lean R. Hauck is a strong incumbent and any R who wins this district has been through a battle. If this was a neutral year, I’d agree with Gongwer. I’m not expecting a neutral year. In addition, the D base is Central Michigan University. I’m following my gut feeling and leaving this as tossup. I hope Gongwer is right.

Updated 10-28 – D’s going all in. Hauck’s got the fundraising edge however. Still tossup tilt R, although I wouldn’t be shocked if this flips with high CMU turnout and a woman running against a dude in heavy resistance territory. Incumbency may save the day.

HD-100 – Safe R (67.27% for VanSingel)

2010 Demographics – 88.1% White, 7.5% Latino, 49.2% Obama 08

Covers Lake, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties.

2016 – Trump 64.21%, Hillary 30.46%, won by 13400

2014 – Snyder 59.71%, Schauer 36.96%, won by 6000

2012 – Romney 55.43%, Obama 43.29% won by 4500

2006 – DeVos 49.81%, Granholm 48.89%, won by 314

Newaygo County carries this district for the R’s. It’s a strong base county. Lake County leans Democrat due to its black population in Baldwin and Idlewild (and the whites are also more D there than elsewhere).  Trump got 60% there, which says a lot since he’s the first POTUS R to win there since 84 or 88. Oceana County is one to watch with the high Mexican population, although Trump did very well there. This seat could be trouble in a buzzsaw year, but D’s didn’t get within 5000 back in 2006 and 2008 in this district, which hasn’t changed in redistricting. Trump did extraordinarily well, but all candidates won the district.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-101 – Tossup (54.00% for VanderWall) (Tilt R)

2010 Demographics – 92.2% White, 52.6% Obama 08

Covers Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, and Mason Counties.

2016 – Trump 53.95%, Hillary 40.45%, won by 7050

2014 – Snyder 52.76%, Snyder 44.64%, won by 3100

2012 – Romney 50.69%, Obama 48.17%, won by 1300

2006 – DeVos 46.48%, Granholm 52.14% lost by 2500

This is a borderline lean R/tossup seat. This district covers the competitive Lake Michigan shore from Ludington to Leelanau County. It’s had a history of recent close races. In 2006, David Palsrok won re-election against Dan Scripps by 1650. In 2008, Scripps took the district by a massive 10000 votes against Ray Franz for the open seat.  Too Franz’s credit, he didn’t give up and actually took the seat back from Scripps in 2010 by 900 votes.  Franz won by 1023 in 2012. He won by 520 in 2014. VanderWall beat Scripps in 2016 by a “massive” 4100 votes.

This district is a mix of different areas. Mason County (Ludington) is a vacation area it leans R, although isn’t impossible for D’s to win.  Trump did very well there. Romney barely won it.  Obama did well there, probably due to some Chicago influence on the Lake Michigan coast. Manistee County is a union area that normally goes D. Trump’s 54.89% there was a big win.  Benzie is a mix of blue collar and vacation areas and is competitive. Trump’s 54% was good there. Romney got 51%. Leelanau is Michigan’s wine country and is next to Traverse City. There’s a lot of money moving  up there and it has its share of Chicago and Ann Arbor influence. Trump barely won it. Romney got 52%. It was a base county for R’s in the early 2000s, but it is trending to the left.  I think this district will be a tough defense for years to come unless either Manistee County moves our way, or the bleeding is stopped in Leelanau County.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis – Benzie County vs Leelanau County. Leelanau is trending blue. Benzie leaned more blue historically, but Trump did well. Manistee County will be key. If the light blue county stays with us after voting for Trump with close to 55%, we may be good here. There are a lot of variables with this district.

Updated 10-28 – Jack O’Malley caught up in fundraising, barely. This is a tough one for me to call. Tilt R. Barely with Trump’s rural strength outside of Leelanau.

HD-102 – Safe R (69.05% for Hoitenga)

2010 Demographics – 94.1% White, 50.9% McCain

Covers all of Mecosta and Wexford Counties. Covers Burdell Twp, Cedar Twp, Hartwick Twp, Le Roy Twp,

Lincoln Twp, Reed City, Richmond Twp, and Rose Lake Twp in Osceola County.

2016 – Trump 63.38%, Hillary 30.84%, won by 12200

2014 – Snyder 57.44%, Schauer 39.36%, won by 4550

2012 – Romney 56.17%, Obama 42.47%, won by 5000

2006 – DeVos 52.42%, Granholm 46.15%, won by 2000

These are mostly Base R areas. Big Rapids is D in Mecosta County due to Ferris State University, but the blue is mostly limited to that city due to the college and is outvoted elsewhere.  The rest is Republican. Wexford County is one of the growing areas of North Michigan. The section of Northern Michigan of Wexford, Osceola, and Missaukee Counties is one of the most R areas of the state. Even in a buzzsaw year like 2006, it goes our way without a major problem.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-103 – Safe R (58.29% for Rendon)

2010 Demographics – 96.2% White, 50.9% McCain

Covers all of Crawford County, Kalkaska County, Missaukee County, Ogemaw County, and Roscommon County.

2016 – Trump 66.40%, Hillary 28.59%, won by 17,600

2014 – Snyder 55.93%, Schauer 40.71%, won by 4800

2012 – Romney 55.89%, Obama 42.89%, won by 5900

2006 – DeVos 50.27%, Granholm 47.98%, won by 900

My family has a cottage in this district. I’m gambling a bit on this rating. I almost had this as lean R due to Roscommon and Ogemaw’s socially conservative union D tradition, especially downticket. I’m borderline at putting this as safe. This seat is a combination of parts of several districts, two of which that largely had D representation for a long time until the 2010 massacres. Joel Sheltrown (basically a Jim Barcia type of Democrat) was such a strong candidate that he actually won Missaukee County, which is usually the 2nd most R county in the state by percentage – usually upper 60% range. It was Trump’s number one county, and usually can carry other counties by itself. Kalkaska has moved heavily to the right over the years as well and can go 60%R. Roscommon and Ogemaw rarely go over 52% D unless there’s an exceptional candidate or disaster.

The old 103rd (Dale Sheltrown) in the 90’s was much different and covered much of the 97th district. R’s went after him in 2002 when the district had Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Iosco and got smoked.  Crawford (usually light red) was in the old 106th Alpena based district which was also D until 2010.

This district has a lot of union retirees and is tied closely to the outdoors. There’s Dutch farmers in Missaukee County. Ogemaw is  the home of an outlet mall on I-75. Roscommon is home to Houghton and Higgins Lake. Crawford is home to Camp Grayling National Guard base as well as the Au Sable River.  Kalkaska is home to the Manistee River. Grayling and Kalkaska are on the route between I-75 and Traverse City. It’s heavily rural and small town, with an independent streak. If you look at the numbers, you’ll see that nobody except Trump got over 60% here. In fact, outside of Missaukee County, nobody besides Trump broke 60% in any counties. Trump’s worst county here was Roscommon, and he got over 62% there. He got 64% in Crawford, his 2nd worst, which is normally a mid 50% range GOP county. He got almost 70% in Kalkaska and 73.61% in Missaukee County. This district may be borderline traditionally, but it’s one of Trump’s best. Romney’s 55.89% here. That was considered good and I believe it was higher than Bush’s numbers either election.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-104 – Lean R (51.42% for Inman)

2010 Demographics – 93.3% White, 50.7% McCain

Covers all of Grand Traverse County.

2016 – Trump 53.14%, Hillary 40.64%, won by 6500

2014 – Snyder 58.33%, Schauer 38.94%, won by 6500

2012 – Romney 55.28%, Obama 43.49%, won by 5700

2006 – DeVos 51.00%, Granholm 47.47%, won by 1300

I’d like to call this safe, but Larry Inman actually did quite a bit worse than Trump (won by 4200 instead of 6500 and got a lower percentage). Inman’s a moderate R, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some conservatives sat on their hands. Trump didn’t go great here (neither did Hillary), so that’s a double whammy. There were significant third party defections here. This is a city vs suburbs and rural district, and potential sleeper. Traverse City has gone from mildly D to around 58% Democrat. (and it was 35% for Trump, and 36% for Larry Inman)) The good news is that it is 16% of the district and the suburbs and rural areas here are still Republican. There’s danger though.  If TC goes 2-1D and if the suburbs narrow much further, we could have some battles here. A lot of Ann Arbor folks moved up there to retire.  Peninsula and Garfield Townships are the ones to really watch. Peninsula is wine country on Old Mission Peninsula. Garfield Twp is the major suburb.

There’s a big of infighting here. Historically, Traverse City was a base of liberal republicans due to (in)famous (depending who you ask) former Governor Bill Milliken. Milliken was a RINO in the true sense (not a moderate, a RINO) who usually runs his mouth near the general election to endorse a democrat. He was formerly rebuked and disowned by the Grand Traverse County Republican Party who had enough of his mouth.  Most of them are probably now D’s, but it’s still a county where one must run as an R to win (at least for now).

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated Analysis – Gongwer’s rating caught my attention. I don’t know if I’d go that far, but I’m keeping an eye on things here. Inman is doubleflanked and barely won last time and has tough primaries as well. The left here turned out in the primary and not for the moderate. Dan O’Neil has the money, no primary, and is putting it in the campaign and Inman is a very IMO weak incumbent. I’d still argue slight R lean, but if we lose a “lean” district, it may be this one due strictly to candidate quality. I’m not ready to move this to tossup, but we’re in trouble here.

Update 10-28-18 – I have a bad gut feeling about this. It’s a perfect storm situation in all ways (fundraising, infighting, resistance types, double flanking) except the rural R base. Do enough conservatives sit on their hands this time? Trump was a bad fit and Inman ran behind Trump. Lean R due to previous results, but my gut says this one could flip. I’m going against my gut on the rating here. 

HD-105 – Safe R (70.05% for Cole)

2010 Demographics – 95.7% White, 52.9% McCain

Covers Antrim County, Charlevoix County, Montmorency County, Oscoda County, and Otsego County

2016 – Trump – 63.77%, Hillary 31.07%, won by 16,300

2014 – Snyder 59.06%, Schauer 37.99%, won by 7400

2012 – Romney 58.42%, Obama 40.31%, won by 8700

2006 – DeVos 52.80%, Granholm 45.34%, won by 2100

This is a base R area covering Northern Michigan. Redistricting here made the 106th district next door harder as population gains/losses altered the borders a bit. Trump did extremely well in the interior parts of the district, but also held his own in some of the more vacation areas like Charlevoix itself. Antrim and Charlevoix Counties are on the Lake Michigan Coast. There’s a lot of money on the coast and on Torch Lake. Interior of those counties are more working class. Otsego County is a base county due to 2nd Amendment and the outdoors, as well as the energy industry. It’s growing as well. Montmorency and Oscoda Counties are very sparsely population with mostly retirees. There’s also an Amish population in Oscoda County. When they vote, the county is significantly moved to the right.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

HD-106 – Safe R (61.34% for Allor) (Moved 10-28)

2010 Demographics – 95.9% White, 49.7% Obama

Covers all of Alcona, Alpena, Iosco, and Presque Isle Counties. Covers Aloha Twp, Benton Twp, Burt Twp, Ellis Twp, Forest Twp, Grant Twp, Iverness Twp, Mentor Twp, Mullett Twp, Nunda Twp, Walker Twp, Waverly Twp, and Wilmot Twp in Cheboygan County.

2016 – Trump 63.17%, Hillary 32.04%, won by 15,400

2014 – Snyder 53.07%, Schauer 43.98%, won by 3100

2012 – Romney 53.54%, Obama 45.17%, won by 4000

2006 – DeVos 44.17%, Granholm 54.32%, lost by 4200

I didn’t like this Lake Huron coastal district when it was drawn up. Alpena, Presque Isle, an Iosco Counties all have union D traditions (more of the Barcia or Stupak variety). Alcona leans R, but was traditionally winnable for D’s in a good year for them. Cheboygan County mostly leans our way, but part of that county has traditional D pockets as well. The D’s went after this seat a bit in 2016, although their candidate messed up a big and didn’t recover.  The D’s had a similar, but more R district for years until the 2010 flip. They made a run at it in 2012 and lost by 3300 votes. In 2014, they lost by 3400. In 2016, Trump’s coattails turned it into 12,800 vote blowout. Was that realignment, or was it the Dan Scripps 2008 run in reverse? I can’t forget 20 years of D tradition in Alpena County downticket, so I’ll put it as lean R. Candidate quality matters here. Sue Allor and Peter Petallia won here. Hopefully, the D’s don’t have another  Andy Newman or Matt Gillard  waiting in the wings.

Bush flipped Presque Isle in 2000 at the top of the ticket and Alpena County in 2004. Romney and Snyder’s wins there were impressive considering unions hated his guts. It showed the start of some realignment there. Trump got extraordinary numbers for the region overall and got almost 62% in Alpena County. He won all portions of Cheboygan County with at least 58% of the vote including areas that voted Obama twice.  I’m still not quite ready to call this district safe, but it’s no longer a tossup district, which is saying something since the D’s had a district similar to this (but more D) for 20 years.

UPDATE – Gongwer rating “Strong Republican”

Updated analysis – I’m tempted to put this as safe, but I want to see this go through one more cycle with this being probably a tough year.

Updated 10-28 – Moved to Safe R. Allor’s fundraising dwarfs the D’s.

HD-107 – Safe R (67.09% for Chatfield)

2010 Demographics – 81% White, 10% Chippewa, 50.3% McCain

Covers all of Chippewa, Emmet, and Mackinac Counties. Covers Beaugrand Twp, Cheboygan,

Hebron Twp, Inverness Twp, Koehler Twp, Mackinaw Twp, Munro Twp, Tuscarora Twp in Cheboygan County.

2016 – Trump 58.90%, Hillary 35.22%, won by 11,200

2014 – Snyder 56.06%, Schauer 41.13%, won by 5100

2012 – Romney 55.44%, Obama 43.32%, won by 5600

2006 – DeVos 47.96%, Granholm 50.54%, lost by 1000

Of districts partially based in the UP, this is the most traditionally R one. It’s winnable for D’s, but I think Chatfield’s a strong incumbent and is safe.  R’s took it in 1998 when Scott Shackleton won it by 538 votes. The D’s took it back when social moderate  D Gary McDowell (most known on RRR for almost taking out Dan Benishek in 2012 defeated former State Senator Walter North in 2004 when Bush easily won the district. North voted bad on a hunting issue. Farm Bureau and the NRA both endorsed McDowell (a farmer). Game over. It flipped back in 2010 with a moderate from Pellston, Frank Foster. Foster was defeated by conservative Lee Chatfield in the 2014 primary.

Emmet County is usually a 58% base county for R’s unless it’s Bart Stupak. Trump didn’t do as well as most R’s however and lost Petoskey (an affluent vacation town on Little Traverse Bay). He still got 56% there.  Cheboygan is light a light red county, although Trump won that part big. Mackinac and Chippewa Counties are more R and D these days, but D’s are capable of winning here, especially Bart Stupak types. Trump did great and overperformed there getting 61% in Mackinac County. Snyder’s 56% in the district and 53% in Mackinac County was good for a state gubernatorial candidate due to the state workers in the UP.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

HD-108 – Lean R (52.74% for LaFave)

2010 Demographics – 95% White, 50.6% Obama 08

Covers Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee Counties.

2016 – Trump 62.23%, Hillary 32.76%, won by 12600

2014 – Snyder 55.22%, Schauer 42.67%, won by 3600

2012 – Romney 54.53%, Obama 44.33%, won by 4200

2006 – DeVos 42.44%, Granholm 56.07%, lost by 4400

This probably the most “Wisconsin” part of the UP. This district was traditionally labor D and flipped in 2002 for the first time in ages. Tom Casperson won an open seat against Laurie Stupak (Bart’s wife). It was a big upset.   D’s took it back in the 2008 massacre in an open seat. Judy Nerat won it. R’s took it back in 2010 in a blowout win by Ed McBroom now running for Senate. This was a bit of a battle in 2016. Beau LaFave beat a strong challenger in Scott Celello by 2300 votes. Trump probably helped  bigtime here. I think Bush won the district twice, the first time narrowly. It’s realigning our way, although there’s no substitute for candidate quality. Due to tradition, I have it as lean R instead of safe.

UPDATE – GONGWER Rating – Lean Republican

Updated Analysis – The dems are going for this. They thought they had this seat last time and Trump may have helped get LaFave across the finish line. Romps has a lot of union connections and has the money to compete. I’d keep this at lean R, but the Wisconsin races may be a bellwether for this seat.

Updated 10-29 – Still Lean R. D’s are working the unions there. I think LaFave is in a strong position however.

HD-109 – Safe D (62.31% for Kivela, 56.66% for Cambensy in Special Election)

2010 Demographics – 90.3% White, 55.5% Obama 08

Covers all of Alger, Luce, and Schoolcraft Counties. Covers all of Marquette County outside of Ishpeming Township (City is in district) and Powell Twp.

2016 – Trump 48.71%, Hillary 44.66%, won by 1700

2014 – Snyder 44.10%, Schauer 53.33%, lost by 2600

2012 – Romney 45.36%, Obama 53.19%, lost by 3200

2006 – DeVos 33.92%, Granholm 64.80%, lost by 9700

This seat is borderline Safe/Lean D. Trump was the first R to win the district in a long time. The UP is realigning, but tradition is still strong in Alger and Marquette Counties. Alger is moving our way. Marquette is more like a mini-Duluth. Labor is still big. It’s more socially liberal. It’s also the home of Northern Michigan University. The only path to win is to run up the score in Luce County, win swingish Alger and Schoolcraft County big, and take nearly all of the still D leaning townships in Marquette County, hoping not to lose too badly in Richmond Twp, Champion Twp, Ishpeming, Marquette itself, and Negaunee. Trump did that. R’s took a serious chance in the special election in 2017. D’s were prepared and won by a decent margin, albeit lower than usual downticket D numbers here.  Could this flip in a November wave? Possible. Would I bet on that? Not unless Cambensy screws up with some bad votes. This year? Off year turnouts in the UP are usually worse for R’s than presidential years due to state workers that often split their ticket.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Lean Democrat

Updated analysis  – This seat may be contested in 2020, but I’m not seeing it this year with the fundraising. R’s went for it in the special and lost. Trump’s not on the ballot which is needed in the labor moderate D rural parts as well as Luce County. Marquette has Northern Michigan University which I expect to turn out no matter what Cambensy does. Lean D, and I may move it to safe eventually. Cambensy’s low cash on hand is the only reason why I didn’t have it as safe.

Updated 10-28 – Safe D due to fundraising. A Trump year may be a better time to contest this one.

HD-110 – Lean D (61.04% for Dianda)

2010 Demographics – 92% White, 50.4% Obama 08

Covers all of Baraga, Gogebic , Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, and Ontonagon Counties. Covers Ishpeming Twp and Powell Twp in Marquette County.

2016 – Trump 56.50%, Hillary 37.55%, won by 7500

2014 – Snyder 50.85%, Schauer 46.34%, won by 1240

2012 – Romney 51.54%, Obama 46.97%, won by 1800

2006 – DeVos 39.87%, Granholm 58.42%, lost by 6200

This is my toughest call to make between tossup and lean D. Tradition is strong here, and Gogebic County, Ishpeming Twp, and Powell Twp are still IMO D strongholds (Trump may be only R that won them for POTUS since 72) almost capable of carrying a district by themselves. In addition, any other county here is still capable of voting for D’s and is lean R at best, with Baraga (voted against Snyder), Ontonagon (prone to wild swings) and Iron tossups at best  for downticket. Houghton County leans R, but still has the D leaning city there. Keweenaw usually goes R now, but is one of the smallest population counties in the country.

Scott Dianda is a throwback to the old school Yooper D, to the point where I’d call this seat safe D if he wasn’t running for Senate. D’s held this seat for probably 50 years until the 2010 wave where Matt Huuki upset the D’s and won by 3200 (against Dianda).  While Romney didn’t do terrible in this district, Dianda learned from 2010 and won this for the D’s in the 2012 rematch by 1200. The only other close race here was 2000’s open seat where R’s came within 1100 votes. It’s an open seat this year. Candidate quality is going to matter a great deal here.

UPDATE – GONGWER rating – Toss up

Updated analysis – I’m at the lean D/tossup border here and moved it to lean D due to funding. The R’s preferred candidate lost the primary to a guy who raised less than 2100. The question is this – does caucus jump in? The only chance the R’s have here is if caucus carries Markkanen to the finish line. I don’t expect that to happen this year since there are too many defenses of incumbents and preferred candidates.

Updated 10-28 – I’m not seeing this one with the fundraising issue. Still Lean D.


10-28 – Overall, I’d call the State House slightly Lean R/tossup tilt R border, although not nearly to the same degree as the State Senate is. D’s need to win 7 of the 11 tossups to tie, and 8 to win. They do not need to win a single lean R seat, and I won’t be shocked in 104 flips (even if other tossup do not flip). That’s still a tough order. I expect four of the tossups to flip, and wouldn’t be at all surprised if 41, 91, and 99 flip as well. That’s a tie. We had that in 1996. If Lyon Twp doesn’t save Crawford, that’s 38 and number 4, and the dems have it. Or if the dems are right about 19. Unlike the State Senate, there is multiple paths for D’s to win.

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