RRH Elections 2019 General Election Preview, Part 3: Kentucky & Mississippi

Editor’s note: We are bumping this preview up to to run today in hopes that perhaps our (expletive deleted) call vendor will provide us reasonable poll data to publish before Tuesday.

Today we finish off our 2019 General Election Previews, covering the major races in Kentucky and Mississippi. Part 1 covering mayoral races is available HERE, and Part 2 covering Philly plus New York City and State races is HERE.

Our legislative previews can be found here: Part 1 (MS, NJ, & Specials) and Part 2 (Virginia)!

Kentucky:

KY-Gov, KY-LG: Kentucky’s gubernatorial election is arguably the biggest headline race of Election Day this year.

Incumbent Matt Bevin (R) is seeking a second term. Bevin first entered the political scene with an antiestablishment primary campaign against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) in 2014. He narrowly won the 2015 gubernatorial primary after his two main rivals nuked each other, and won the general election on the lean of the state. Bevin has continued to govern in the mold of an antiestablishment conservative, particularly on fiscal issues. Those positions, as well as his poor political skills, have led to a string of fights with even Republicans in the legislature, issues that came to a lead with a statewide teachers’ strike over pension reform earlier this year. As his gubernatorial term has worn on, those fights have left Bevin increasingly unpopular. With the exit of some very unpopular governors after the 2018 elections, he now ranks by far as the nation’s least popular governor, with deep-underwater approval ratings. But Bevin does have the strength of incumbency and ample self-funding ability; he has self-funded $3M and raised a significant amount from donors as well, which has given him a good warchest for this race. Bevin did make one significant pivot for this race though, dropping LG Jenean Hampton (R), a little-known antiestablishment conservative who signed on with his 2015 campaign when it was a long-shot. Bevin’s new running mate is State Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R) of suburban Lexington, who he invited on to the ticket in a bid to mend fences with the legislature. The gambit seems to have worked somewhat, but not entirely; Bevin eked out an underwhelming win in the primary over a “B” list primary challenger. For the general, he has been reasonably successful at keeping Republican establishment forces in line, though he has suffered one high-profile GOP defection in State Sen. Dan Seum (R).

Bevin’s rival is AG Andy Beshear (D). Beshear is an Heir Force general as the son of Bevin’s predecessor, ex-Gov. Steve (D). That dynastic appeal allowed him to win the AGs office in 2015 as his first political foray. In office, he has been an establishment liberal and favorite of public employee unions, and a fierce antagonist of Bevin. He is running as an establishment liberal in this race and has fundraised well. In this race, Beshear has been largely content to coasting on his name and Heir Force credentials, eking out a weaker-than-expected plurality primary win. He has generally continued that tone in the general, avoiding being tied down on most polarizing issues and hoping Bevin’s unpopularity will carry the day. Beshear has selected a surprisingly “Some Dude” level LG running mate, unknown teacher Jacqueline Coleman (D), who also runs a small nonprofit.

There is also a non-serious Libertarian in the race. Polling of the race has been sparse, but what little we have suggests a very competitive contest. Both sides have released internals showing themselves up modestly. Bevin is quite unpopular and has myriad liabilities, but is an incumbent in a deep-red state that is only becoming more so. Beshear is a credible nominee who has a very obvious wedge issue with Bevin’s unpopularity and fights with the legislature and state employee unions; however, his campaign has been somewhat lackluster and his liberal positions, particularly his pro-choice stance, have provided avenues for Bevin to attack. Overall, about all we can say is that the race is highly competitive and there is no clear favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Tossup/Tilt D.

KY-SoS: The SoS seat is open as incumbent Allison Lundergan-Grimes (D) is termed out (and facing an investigation over to abusive practices in her office, such as using voter files to doxx political opponents).

GOP operative and appointed state elections board member Michael Adams (R) is the GOP nominee. Adams is an election lawyer who is very well-connected in GOP circles, as he has served as an aide to Mitch McConnell, Bush 43 Administration official, and general counsel for the RGA. Adams has used those connections to fundraise very well. He is running as an establishment conservative, with enacting a photo ID requirement for voting as his signature issue (Kentucky currently allows non-photo IDs like credit cards as valid identification for voting)

Democrats have a well-known nominee in former Miss America Heather French-Henry (D). French-Henry was Miss America in 2000 and is married to 90s-era ex-LG Steve Henry (D), whose career ended in a corruption conviction for campaign finance irregularities. French-Henry later had a government career in her own right as Veterans’ Affairs commissioner for Gov. Steve Beshear (D). She has had good fundraising for this race, and should have relatively high name recognition. French-Henry is running as a moderate liberal.

A Democratic poll a few weeks ago showed French-Henry with a surprising lead, which may have been due to her higher name recognition. Overall, the lean of the state and Adams’s strong fundraising and credible resume should leave Republicans as mild favorites to flip the seat. However, French-Henry is definitely a credible candidate for Democrats, and could easily have a chance to prevail as well, especially if Beshear is winning the gubernatorial race. Thus, overall, Adams looks like a slight favorite in a competitive race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

KY-AG: The AG’s seat is open as incumbent Andy Beshear (D) is running for Governor.

Attorney and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) aide Daniel Cameron (R) is the former chief attorney for McConnell’s office. Sensing a potential future star, McConnell’s network gave Cameron strong support to get through the primary, and he has continued to exploit his McConnell connections to fundraise very well for the general. An establishment conservative, Cameron has been further boosted by considerable outside GOP support from groups such as the Republican AGs Association. Cameron’s African-American heritage has been a selling point, but also brought him racist attacks from Democrats; a talk radio host notably said he was “eating coon flakes” by supporting Trump. The last few weeks of Cameron’s campaign has been dominated by a lawsuit questioning his eligibility. Kentucky’s AG is required to have eight years of legal practice; while Cameron has been an attorney for eight years, he spent two of those as a federal judicial clerk. Though a judge ruled in Cameron’s favor and he is eligible to serve as AG, the presence of the lawsuit in the news was likely a positive for Democrats attempting to portray Cameron as too inexperienced for the office.

Cameron’s rival is ex-AG and ex-State House Speaker Greg Stumbo (D), who is seeking a return to the job he had from 2003 to 2007. A trial lawyer by profession, Stumbo was known as AG as a chief antagonist of then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), and spearheaded a number of investigations that led to the uncovering of minor scandals in the Fletcher administration. After a primary loss in a campaign for LG in 2007, Stumbo then was elected to the State House from a rural seat in the mountains of Eastern Kentucky. While there, he served as Speaker from 2008 until his 2016 defeat. In both of those roles, he was known as a fiery populist liberal and a fierce antagonist of Republican political priorities. Republicans’ defeat of him in 2016 was considered one of the party’s most significant victories, and Kentucky Republican insiders are beyond energized to beat him this year. Stumbo’s fundraising for this race has been mediocre, though he does have some outside Dem support, particularly from labor groups. He is once again running as a populist liberal, promising to make suing opioid manufacturers a top priority in office.

This race has been exceptionally nasty, with Stumbo’s forces filing the lawsuit questioning Cameron’s eligibility. Cameron has given as well as he has got, hitting back against Stumbo for various personal issues, including a 1991 DUI, allegations of failing to pay child support in the early 2000s, and for praising Hillary in 2016. Overall, the lean of the state and his strong fundraising and establishment support should leave Cameron a slight favorite. However, Stumbo has high name recognition and a strong personal brand from his long political career which could allow him to pull the upset, particularly if Beshear is carrying the state in the Governor’s race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

KY-Treas: Two candidates are running for State Treasurer.

Incumbent Allison Ball (R) is seeking a second term. Ball was an unknown attorney when she won the office four years ago on an underfunded campaign. At age 37, she has the makings of a potential rising star in the future, but has mostly been content to be a low-profile and non-controversial administrator in her current office. She has not fundraised well for this race, but with a low caliber of opposition it may not matter.

Democrats’ nominee is banker and Louisville city council staffer Michael Bowman (D), who has also worked as a low-level executive at several large corporations. Bowman’s campaign has been poorly funded and he has little name recognition, which combined with the lean of the state likely makes this race very uphill for him.

Ball is a non-controversial incumbent in a low-profile office and state strongly favoring her party, which should likely be enough to allow her to coast to an uneventful re-election win barring something unexpected. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

KY-Aud: Three candidates are running for State Auditor.

Incumbent Mike Harmon (R), who is seeking a second term. Harmon was something of a surprise winner in 2015. At the time, he was known as an antiestablishment social conservative legislator from a rural district with some foot-in-mouth moments. But despite an underfunded campaign, Harmon defeated a Democratic incumbent in an upset by coasting on the lean of the state and Bevin’s gubernatorial win. Harmon has once again had mediocre fundraising for this race, though he has generally been non-controversial and low-profile in his statewide office.

Nonprofit exec Sheri Donahue (D) spent much of her career as a civilian staffer for the Navy focusing on cyber-security. Unsurprisingly, she is focusing on her wheelhouse of cyber-security in this race, which is an interesting niche but may not have broad appeal. Donahue is decently-funded candidate for this race, actually significantly outpacing Harmon in funds.

There is also a non-serious Libertarian on the ballot. Overall, Donahue is a credible candidate for Democrats, but Harmon is a non-controversial incumbent in a low-profile race and has the lean of the state on his side. Thus, Harmon looks like the very strong favorite for a second term. If Donahue is coming close in this race, it is likely due to a landslide Beshear win for Governor lifting the boats of all of the ticket’s Dems. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

KY-Agri: Three candidates are running for the Agriculture Commissioner seat.

Incumbent Ryan Quarles (R) is seeking a second term. Quarles is considered a fast-rising star in the state party at just 35, and has been cultivating a high profile in his time in office, most notably through the implementation of the state’s new industrial hemp legalization program. Though he does not face a top-tier challenger, Quarles is sitting on a large warchest of over $500K, by far the highest of any Row Office candidate, making it obvious that he is planning to seek a higher office in 2023 (or sooner).

Water board member and former school board member Robert-Haley Conway (D) is running as a moderate and touts his background as a practicing farmer. However, Haley has had very poor fundraising and has little name recognition, which combined with the lean of the state likely makes this race very uphill for him.

There is also a non-serious Libertarian on the ballot. With the lean of the state, incumbency, and cash on his side, overall it would be a shock if Quarles did not notch an easy victory. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

Mississippi:

MS-Gov: Mississippi’s gubernatorial seat is open, as Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is termed out and retiring. Both sides have credible statewide officeholders contending for the seat.

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves (R) is the GOP nominee. Reeves is very well-known statewide thanks to his two terms as LG and two terms as Treasurer before that. He has been known as an ideological conservative who straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment impulses, with an emphasis on fiscal conservative issues. Reeves is also known for a forceful style, which, while sedate by most states’ standards, has often been considered abrasive by the genteel political culture of the Deep South. Thus, he has created some minor personal enemies with elements of the state establishment. Though those feuds have received a lot of oxygen in the media, Reeves’s performance in objective metrics suggests the stories are a bit overblown, as he has raised over $10M gross for the campaign, and received strong endorsements in the race, including from outgoing Gov. Phil Bryant (R) and the NRA. Most of the GOP establishment is in line behind Reeves, though his most prominent primary challenger, ex-State Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr. (R), has notably refused to endorse him. Reeves has also been hit for his alleged attempt to pull strings to get a road built from his gated community to a nearby shopping mall, though an investigation concluded no official wrongdoing on his part.

Attorney General Jim Hood (D) is Democrats’ nominee. The DGA scored a major recruitment coup when Hood joined this race, probably the biggest recruitment win for Dems in any race this cycle. The four-term AG is the last statewide Democrat to hold on in Mississippi, as the state has transitioned from unanimously Democratic to reflexively Republican over the last few decades. Hood has been a socially moderate populist in office, being particularly aggressive as AG on issues of consumer protection. That posture has historically been a good one for the state, and Hood has won his three re-election bids by double-digit margins. Hood has fundraised well, though his hauls of around $3M are far short of Reeves’s. Sensing perhaps their only chance to make the race competitive after all but punting on the last three gubernatorial elections, the state and national Democratic establishments have given Hood unanimous support.

There are also two non-serious candidates in the race, an Independent and a Constitution Party candidate. Overall, Hood is a very strong candidate for Democrats, but Mississippi is a very inelastic conservative state where GOP base voters account for more than 50% of the electorate. Polling of the race has been very sparse, but what little there has been has shown Reeves with low to mid single digit leads over Hood. However, Hood’s personal appeal means they do not seem totally insurmountable if Dem turnout is strong. Thus, for now it seems like Reeves is a moderate, but far from prohibitive, favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

MS-LG: The Lieutenant Governor’s seat is open as incumbent Tate Reeves (R) is running for Governor. Mississippi’s LG is among the nation’s most powerful (arguably second only to Texas in that department) as it retains significant powers in running the State Senate

SoS Delbert Hosemann (R) is seeking to jump to this seat after three terms as SoS. Hosemann is a longtime low-key pol and establishment conservative known for his folksy style; he has particularly been known for a series of memorable ads in which an elderly woman mispronounces his name. Hosemann has been raising money aggressively for much of his term as SoS despite facing only token re-election opposition, which has left him a $3M warchest for this race.

Hosemann’s rival is State Rep. Jay Hughes (D) of Oxford. Hughes is considered a rising star on the state’s thin Dem bench for defeating a GOP incumbent to win his light-red legislative seat in 2015. Hughes has a compelling biography as a veteran who worked blue-collar jobs before becoming an attorney. He has fundraised quite well, with hauls of around $1M, though most of that has come from self-funding.

Overall, Hughes is a very good recruit for Dems, and puts the general election on the playing field. But Hosemann’s own strong personal brand and the lean of the state likely mean Hughes would need to ride the coattails of a Hood victory to have any real chance at a win. That situation means that while Hosemann is a substantial, an upset does seem within the realm of possibility. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

MS-SoS: The Secretary of State seat is open as incumbent Delbert Hosemann (R) is running for LG.

State Sen. Michael Watson (R) has represented part of the Pascagoula area in the State Senate for twelve years. Watson, who is considered a rising star at 41, is known as an antiestablishment ideological conservative, and has generally been aligned with the antiestablishment faction of State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) in the chamber. However, Watson has good relationships with more establishment-leaning figures as well, as evidenced by his endorsement from Gov. Phil Bryant (R). Watson has fundraised well for this race, and after prevailing in a surprisingly nasty and close primary, appears to have re-coalesced GOP support from the general.

Ex-Hattiesburg Mayor and 2011 gubernatorial nominee Johnny DuPree (D) is Watson’s rival. DuPree has a credible political resume from 16 years leading the city of 45K and statewide name recognition from his 2011 run. However, he lost re-election as Mayor in 2017 in an upset, and has has had poor fundraising for this race.

Overall, the lean of the state and DuPree’s weaknesses as a candidate should leave Watson a very strong favorite barring something unexpected. If Hood is winning the gubernatorial race by a larger than expected margin, it is possible the race could be close, but DuPree overcoming the state’s inelastic conservative lean to pull the upset seems unlikely. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-AG: The AG’s seat is open as incumbent Jim Hood (D) is running for Governor.

State Treasurer Lynn Fitch (R) is seeking to move down the hall in this race after two terms as Treasurer. Fitch is a longtime state government insider, previously serving in the administration of then-Gov. Haley Barbour (R) before her election as Treasurer. Unsurprisingly, she is running as a mainstream establishment conservative. Fitch has been well-funded and has statewide name recognition from her prior runs.

Fitch’s rival is state ACLU chapter chair Jennifer Riley-Collins (D). Riley-Collins has a compelling story of growing up poor and serving 32 years as a career Army officer, and has been emphasizing that military experience in her campaign. Conversely, she has been taking pains to downplay her ACLU ties and liberal positions and trying to focus her message on small-ball issues. Her fundraising has been mediocre to poor, but enough to run a credible campaign.

Though Republicans have not held this seat since Reconstruction, that streak looks all but certain to snap this year. Regardless of the GOP nominee, Riley-Collins looks likely to be positioned too far left to have a serious chance of getting the crossover support needed to win in the state. Hood has pointedly refused to endorse her, which has led to a tussle between the two campaigns. Overall, Fitch seems likely to notch an easy victory to flip the seat for the GOP. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-Treas: The Treasurer’s seat is open as incumbent Lynn Fitch (R) is running for AG.

Businessman and 2015 candidate David McRae (R) mounted a surprisingly strong run against then-incumbent Fitch four years ago, taking 44%. McRae is heir to a family that ran a chain of department stores, and thus he has major self-funding ability. As in 2015, he has not hesitated to use that ability for this race, putting in $1M of his own funds this year. McRae has collected strong establishment support in this race as well, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Phil Bryant (R), who also cut an ad for him.

Democrats’ nominee is ex-Bolton (pop. 600) councilwoman Addie-Lee Green (D). Green is basically a perennial candidate as she has lost races for PSC in 2007 and 2011 and Agriculture Commissioner in 2015; she has barely fundraised and does not seem to be running a serious campaign for this seat. Overall, it would be shocking if McRae did not notch an easy general election victory. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-Agri: Two candidates are facing off for the Agriculture Commissioner seat.

Appointed incumbent Andy Gipson (R) is seeking a full term. Gipson is a former legislator from suburban Jackson and establishment conservative who was tapped for the post when the prior incumbent, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), was appointed to the Senate last year.

2007 nominee and ex-MSDP chair Rickey Cole (D) is Gipson’s rival. Cole has had mediocre fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign. He has an interesting signature issue of exempting from state sales taxes all food produced entirely in the state.

Cole is a more credible candidate than some of Dems’ row officer ticket, but Gipson is non-controversial and it is tough to see Cole overcoming the lean of the state in a low-profile race so far down the ballot. Thus, the incumbent looks like a very strong favorite for a full term. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-Ins: Two candidates are facing off for the Insurance Commissioner seat.

Incumbent Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney (R) is seeking a fourth term. Chaney is an establishment conservative who has been reasonably high-profile in office, particuarly on health insurance regulation issues surrounding the state’s particularly rocky Obamacare exchange rollout. 

Due to the lean of the state and his incumbency, Chaney should be headed to an easy victory. Democrats’ nominee is professor and perennial candidate Robert Amos (D), who has lost three runs for local office in the Jackson area and a 2015 bid for Transportation commissioner over the last decade. Amos is not running a particularly serious campaign for this race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-Aud: Finally, the Auditor’s contest is the most boring of all on the statewide ballot.

Appointed incumbent Shad White (R) is amazingly totally unopposed for a full term in his first ever election at the age of 34. White is a former staffer to Gov. Phil Bryant (R) who was appointed to the post last year when the prior incumbent resigned. Look for White to either climb the political ladder or get sucked off for a federal judgeship in the near future, as he has a fairly sterling legal resume as a Rhodes Scholar and former Harvard Law Federalist Society chair. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-PSC: The Mississippi Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities, is a 3-member body that breaks down as 2D-1R, elected by three geographic districts running stripes across the state. The Central and Southern seats are open.

MS-PSC-N is a D-held R+11 seat covering the northern third of the state, including the Memphis suburbs, Tupelo, and Starkville. In spite of the Presidential lean of the seat, incumbent Brandon Presley (D) is amazingly entirely unopposed for a fourth term.

MS-PSC-C is an open black-plurality D+2 seat covering the Jackson area, most of the Delta, and the Meridian area. The seat is open as incumbent Cecil Brown (D) is retiring. On the GOP side, 2015 nominee and nonprofit exec Brent Bailey (R) is mounting a second run for the seat. Bailey, who works at a nonprofit focused on renewable energy, is running as something of a populist moderate. He has raised enough to run a serious campaign and could benefit from name recognition from his prior run. Bailey is facing off with Jackson councilman DeKeither Stamps (D). An Iraq veteran, Stamps  has decent institutional support and is running as a moderate establishment liberal; however, his fundraising has been poor. The seat is light-blue on paper, but lower Black turnout in off-year elections allows Republicans to win elections in this district on a relatively regular basis. Overall, there is no clear favorite.

MS-PSC-S is an open R+17 seat covering the southern third of the state, including the Gulf Coast and Laurel/Hattiesburg areas. The seat is open as incumbent Sam Britton (R) mounted an unsuccessful run for the nomination for SoS. Pascagoula Mayor Dane Maxwell (R) is the GOP nominee for the seat. Maxwell is a veteran and former Trump campaign operative who has had strong institutional support for his bid. He should be favored in the conservative district over ex-Ocean Springs (pop. 17K) Mayor Connie Moran (D), who was the 2011 nominee for State Treasurer. Moran is vying for a comeback here after losing her re-election bid as Mayor in 2017. While she has fundraised credibly, it is hard to see a path for her to overcome the strong lean of the district in this low-profile race. Thus, Maxwell should be a strong favorite for the seat; he seems likely to attempt to use the post as a stepping stone to climb the ladder further in the future.

MS-Trans: The unique Mississippi Transportation Commission is a 3-member body overseeing the state’s transportation department. Republicans currently hold a 3-0 majority on the board, which is elected by geographic districts that are the same as those of the PSC.

MS-Trans-N is an open R+11 seat covering the northern third of the state, including the Memphis suburbs, Tupelo, and Starkville. Ex-DeSoto County commissioner John Caldwell (R) is mounting his third run for the seat after losing a general election in 2003 and a special election R-on-R runoff in 2011. A veteran, Caldwell has relevant experience as the school bus service director for his local school district. He has had mediocre fundraising, though enough to run a serious campaign. Caldwell is facing 90s-era ex-State Rep. Joey Grist (D), who represented a rural district west of Tupelo for eight years before losing a re-election primary in 2003. Grist is a veteran who speaks compellingly about overcoming substance abuse issues, and has fundraised enough to run a credible campaign. This is still a conservative district, and the lean of the seat means that Caldwell should be a strong favorite. However, if Hood is doing exceptionally well in the Governor’s race, there could be a slight chance for Grist to pull the upset.

MS-Trans-C is an open black-plurality R-held D+2 seat covering the Jackson area, most of the Delta, and the Meridian area. Brandon (pop. 20K) Mayor Butch Lee (R) has fundraised well and has strong institutional Republican support. He is running as an establishment conservative with some technocratic moderate overtones. Lee’s rival is State Sen. Willie Simmons (D), a longtime legislator from a rural Delta district, representing the Cleveland area for a quarter-century. Simmons is one of the more liberal members of the legislature as an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies. He particularly touts his porking prowess in Jackson; he has had good but not great fundraising for this race. The seat is light-blue on paper, but lower Black turnout in off-year elections allows Republicans to win elections in this district on a regular basis. as evidenced by the fact that it is GOP-held. Lee is also a strong candidate for the GOP. Thus, overall, there is no clear favorite.

MS-Trans-S is an open R+17 seat covering the southern third of the state, including the Gulf Coast and Laurel/Hattiesburg areas. Incumbent Tom King (R) will win a third term entirely unopposed.