Alabama Senator Richard Shelby has told friends he’s not going to run for re-election in 2022. Shelby is the 4th most senior Senator, having served in that body since 1987. Before that, he served in the House. Shelby was originally elected as a Democrat before switching to the GOP after the 1994 Republican Revolution in order to remain in the majority party in Senate. Overall, he has represented all or part of Alabama in Washington for the past 42 years.
The Republican primary to replace Shelby is likely to be crowded. Possible candidates include former Shelby chief of staff Katie Boyd Britt, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth, AL-5 Congressman Mo Brooks, AL-6 Congressman Gary Palmer, former AL-1 Congressman Bradley Byrne, and Alabama Senate President Pro-Tempore Del Marsh and Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle.
This Senate vacancy might help Alabama with Congressional redistricting should the state lose a seat in the 2022 reapportionment. Alabama is on the bubble to lose its 7th seat according to many estimates. Were Alabama to lose a seat, other Alabama Congressmen – perhaps AL-2’s Barry Moore or AL-3’s Mike Rogers – could be forced to run for Senate for lack of another landing spot.
Hold for more…

79 Comments
Clown Car primary incoming. Who we thinking?
NH-1 (R)Hear me out... Dave Portnoy 2024
Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Barry Moore, Mike Rodgers, Will Ainsworth, John Merrill, Katie Britt
Depends a lot whether Ivey runs for reelection. If she doesn’t that should draw off some of the clown car.
Assuming she does, I’ll say Byrne, Moore, Britt, Palmer, Brooks, Ainswortth, Merrill, Jim Ziegler, and Jonathan McConnell.
M, 25, NY-11, NY-SD-22, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."Just realized there are two different prominent Moores in Alabama politics. I meant Barry, but what the hell, I’ll say Roy runs too.
M, 25, NY-11, NY-SD-22, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."Bring on Katie Britt!
This will probably make Alabama legislators’ lives much easier should Alabama lose its 7th seat.
Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's faultCheney ‘24
9.38, -4.26
I wonder if either Edmund LaCour or Brett Talley run and follow in Sessions footsteps as failed judiciary nominees to wind up in the Senate.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.That’s pretty unlikely. Sessions had 12 years as US Attorney (a much more high-profile position) and 2 years as state AG before he ran, and that was with a much thinner Alabama GOP bench. If either has any interest in electoral politics they’d probably wait for AG to come open or try for a House seat.
M, 25, NY-11, NY-SD-22, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."Come on Gary Palmer or Mo Brooks
What’s he going to do with all that money? IIRC, he always raised a ton of cash despite not needing in in AL.
42, Navy Chief CA-26. Cultural, though not social, conservative. Hispanic, but "functionally white."Give it to candidates in AZ, PA?
I think Byrne or Mo Brooks make sense. Just keep the mall-walker away!
35, Jersey City, No More Lockdowns! #ReadyforRoaring2020sThis is where Jessica Taylor losing the primary really sucks. She would have been an amazing Senator, but now it’s too big of a jump.
Hopefully two or more House members run so something opens up for her.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.Agree.
Are there any state legislators to keep an eye on? I remember liking Mooney last year, but he got absolutely slaughtered in the primary.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.A state the Republicans don’t have to worry about who comes out of the primary not winning in a landslide not name Roy Moore, the question is do the Democrats put up a credible candidate who can get 40% or so. Senior Senator Tommy Tueberville lol
Does Jones try again? Or is Biden giving him an ambassadorship?
If not him, State Rep/ AL DEM Chair Chris England or Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.He can’t beat anyone not-named Roy Moore.
Of course he isn’t. But does he know that? Keep in mind he ran before the Moore scandal came out.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.I mean, he just got crushed in a landslide as an incumbent. So yeah I think he knows.
Moore was already one of the weakest Rs in the Deep South even before his activities at the Gadsden Mall came out.
35, Jersey City, No More Lockdowns! #ReadyforRoaring2020sAccording to his Twitter page, Doug Jones is now a CNN contributor.
Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's faultCheney ‘24
9.38, -4.26
I like Byrne, but he is now a two-time loser statewide. Maybe third time would be a charm? But I’m not convinced he’s not seen as a has-been.
Nobody outside the hard-right really likes Brooks. Which doesn’t mean he can’t win but things will need to happen. Particularly as he’ll almost certainly have to win a runoff.
I suspect Gary Palmer will run for Governor if Ivy retires. If she doesn’t…he’ll probably look at this. He does come from the district with the most R voters in it, one of the most heavily R in the country. That’s gotta count for something. He also has no real enemies in the state.
I have trouble seeing Shelby shoehorning his COS into his seat. Regardless of how well liked or known by the powers that be. Maybe run for one of the vacated Congressional seats. Could be wrong but that’s my impulse.
The media will tell us that this has nothing to do about age but it is because of Trump and MTG in 3,2,1…
RO Conservative.They’ve already started with the “Now the 4th GOP senator has announced his retirement. Could this mean he thinks 2022 looks bleak”
If any Democrat announces his or her retirement, things will be reported slightly differently from the MSM.
R, NC-3Hopefully Tommy Tuberville will have had time to watch “I’m Just a Bill” by the time he’s Senior Senator!
145-61Senior Senators Ossoff and Tuberville in neighboring states. What a world.
I want senator TWINKLE.
LOL!
RO Conservative.Are you kidding? Senator Young Boozer III would be even better. Unfortunately, he’s already in his 70s.
27, R, TN-09Follow the big picture, not the daily tennis match
That sounds like a rapper my cousin listens to.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.That would probably be Lil’ Boozy, if memory serves. Young Boozer III (R) is the former state Treasurer of Alabama.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Boozer
27, R, TN-09Follow the big picture, not the daily tennis match
Does he have a grandson named Young Boozer V? Inquiring minds want to know!
Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's faultCheney ‘24
9.38, -4.26
Lil Boozer and Granddaddy-B would make one hell of a Governor ticket
NH-1 (R)Hear me out... Dave Portnoy 2024
Not that young!
D. MD-08.Isn’t AL-7th pretty much either the Last in/ First out seat?
Also, I’d be pretty surprised if Brooks is the only congressperson to run.
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.Yeah, AL-7 is on the bubble to be lost, probably along with NY-26.
Brooks likely won’t be the only Congressperson to run, especially if AL loses that 7th seat. I just added AL-4 Aderholt and AL-6 Palmer to the great mentioner.
@cinyc9 on TwitterI doubt Aderholt will run. Too senior in the House. He’ll wait a few terms and be Appropriations chair.
Aderholt is a legit contender for Dean of the House someday. Dude has been in Congress for 24 years from one of the safest seats in the country and is only 55.
R, 30, CA-19. That didn't last very long.Agree.
*Depending on the length of Chris Smith’s eventual reign as Dean.
Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's faultCheney ‘24
9.38, -4.26
Crazy thing is Chris Smith was a fluke Abscam winner who everyone in 1980 assumed would be a one term wonder.
Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_Ah, the 1980s: when “Democratic congressman” and “scandal” were practically synonymous.
Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's faultCheney ‘24
9.38, -4.26
No. Don Young will live forever
I took Aderholt out (he was listed on Wikipedia as a potential candidate) and added Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, who ran for Governor in 2018. AL-1 Carl and AL-2 Moore are freshman Congressmen, so I’m guessing they’re less llikely to run. Is AL-3’s Mike Rogers too senior to likely run, too?
@cinyc9 on TwitterIf AL goes to 6 seats, one of Moore or Rogers is likely going to have to run because those are the two districts easiest to combine. They may try to pair the freshmen Moore and Carl, but that’s really just eliminating Moore. Unless the 7th seat holds or the legislature surprises and cuts a seat up north, Moore might as well run for the Senate seat because his odds won’t be that much better against either Carl or Rogers.
Rogers would be likely. Freshmen usually don’t run for Senate. Daines, Cotton, Rosen are the exceptions not the rule
Yeah and I think Moore would be quite the underdog if he ran. But it might be no worse than his House odds if his district is blown up.
There’ll be hell toupée if Rogers runs.
145-61If Palmer runs cutting the 6th is trivially easy, you just butterfly it in half between Aderholt and Rogers.
R, MD-7.How many think that Roy Moore makes another vanity run?
Allergic to TDSI’d be willing to bet my entire 401k
33, M, WI-3, 94th assembly district. @jsmit781Matt Gaetz considered running for the other seat in 2020, and I wonder if he might not be able to snag a Trump endorsement (particularly if he follows through on resigning his House seat to defend Trump in the Senate impeachment trial). I think we’re also underestimating the size of the field here — Alabama likes celebrity candidates, and where those are unavailable Alabama often picks fairly obscure state legislators over more established politicians (see the 2010 gubernatorial runoff slots going to 2 different fairly obscure state legislators). This is likely a race for a lifetime Senate appointment, and it would make sense to stake a *lot* on it.
OH-16. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.You’re probably right about the overall size of the clown car, but I think you’re overstating the state legislators thing. The 2010 gubernatorial field was oddly weak without really any established politicians (by conventional definitions), so it’s not surprising Byrne and Bentley did OK. Tuberville is the only other particularly unconventional candidate I can think of who did fairly well – the other vote-getters in 2017 and 2020 were all pretty conventional (Strange, Brooks, Moore, Sessions, Byrne).
M, 25, NY-11, NY-SD-22, NY-LD-46; "'It's one way or the other, Mr. Jackson,' he replied."Gaetz will forever be a Florida man
The Alex X Mooney School of Political Promotion.
Hey, it worked for Mooney.
That said, Gaetz is a lot more…controversial. And I don’t think Alabama has a big Florida fan base. Mooney’s district in WV at least had the Eastern Panhandle which is a lot of MD/VA/DC transplants anyway.
Gaetz’s district is literally called the “Floribama Coast” — much like Western Maryland (the three westernmost counties in MD, Garrett, Allegany, and Washington, which Alex Mooney represented in the state Senate) is pretty universally acknowledged to be more like West Virginia than the rest of Maryland, “Floribama”, the part of the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River/west of Tallahassee is usually seen as being more like Alabama than Florida.
Which doesn’t necessarily mean running is a good idea — Gaetz’s base will still be in Florida and Alabama has historically had some regionalized primaries. But I don’t think it’s hopeless, and if he really has a Trump endorsement up his sleeve then he has a fair shot.
OH-16. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.Not that it matters, but I thought Mooney represented a Frederick-area seat in the Maryland Senate.
D. MD-08.The Alabama GOP bench has a lot of names but many of them are old and nobody screams “frontrunner” to me. Wouldn’t be surprised if Shelby makes a deal with Ivey to Resign and have Katie Britt appointed in his spot. Matt Gaetz wouldn’t be the absolute worst carpetbagging job (and it would do the Florida GOP a huge favor), but he has no institutional connections in the state and the Pensacola media market covers like two rural counties in Alabama
Also, while it’s nothing approaching Roy Moore’s alleged pedophilia, Gaetz has some rumours about his personal life that could come out if he runs
He’s a Florida man now and forever
THAT guy is a potential sleaze? No…
145-61Was he also involved with Katie Hill?
MI-08 - Pro-2a, Pro-life, pro-worker, pro-small business Generation X conservativeHe defended her and said that the media’s publication of personal photos and intimate details of her private life was sleazy and unethical character assassination.
OH-16. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.Pensacola and Mobile are in the same TV market, Mobile-Pensacola. That TV market covers 6 AL counties – including the very populous Mobile County, AL
@cinyc9 on TwitterThe Pensacola media market is part of the Mobile, AL, media market, which are not two rural counties. Those two counties have almost 700,000 people living in them.
Del Marsh will not run. I hear He is done with politics after his current term is up
I think Mo Brooks would be the frontrunner if he wants it. Ivy is probably too old and will want a second term as governor, while none of the other reps have Brooks’ standing in Trumper circles
Allergic to TDSDepends on how popular Trump still is by 2022. If Trump’s popularity with GOP voters goes down, so will Brooks’.
Brooks was a fav of conservatives even before Trump.
Allergic to TDSIt’s Alabama
Brooks is not *that* Trumpy (or at least, he was criticized in the 2017 primary for having been very anti-Trump during the 2016 presidential primary).
OH-16. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.Brooks is one of a small remaining group that is still 100% 2010 Tea Party.
Ironic considering Huntsville exists just about solely due to federal spending.
145-61What are Katie Britt’s positions like?
If anything I say offends you... you probably deserved to be offended.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce
The CofC which conspired with AFL-CIO and far left groups to ”preserve democracy”?
No, thanks, we should pass.
RO Conservative.Official.
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1358823190265532417
Sen. Shelby keeps it succinct: “Today I announce that I will not seek a seventh term in the United State Senate in 2022. For everything, there is a season.”
C'mon man.